In short
Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend (Aug 29, 2025) covers (1) Fed independence after President Trump’s attempt to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook, (2) NVIDIA earnings and what it implies for the AI spending cycle, and (3) the U.S. consumer “fog” and tariffs’ impact on fast-casual chain Kava.
Guests and backgrounds
- Jay Goldberg, senior analyst for semiconductors and electronics at Seaport Research Partners.
- Sarah Fryer, Bloomberg News Big Tech team leader (San Francisco).
- Natasha Serin, co-founder and president of the Yale Budget Lab; Yale Law professor; former Treasury official.
- Tricia Tolliver, CFO of Kava (Baton Rouge, Louisiana).
- Nina Trentman, Bloomberg News senior editor (joins Kava segment).
Key claims
- NVIDIA’s tepid revenue forecast suggests AI infrastructure growth is decelerating; expectations are harder to beat, especially with China uncertainty and potential overspending by hyperscalers.
- Blackwell ramp constraints include first-generation reliability issues and bottlenecks beyond chips, notably electricity for gigawatt-scale data centers.
- Fed independence is at risk; credibility with markets and the public could be hard to restore quickly.
- Tariffs raise effective tariff rates and consumer/business costs; Kava says it will not pass tariff-driven price increases in 2025 and is managing supply chain exposure.
Notable examples
- NVIDIA: no H20 chip sales to China in the quarter; revenue outlook around $54B (±2%) vs estimates near $53.46B; share buyback authorization questioned.
- Fed: reference to Nixon-era Arthur Burns inflation episode; court signals for-cause removal protections.
- Kava: margin impact estimate of ~20 basis points in 2H; menu price increases of 1.7% in 2025; new items like chicken shawarma and cinnamon sugar pita chips; “pita chip plushie” partnership buzz.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOPodcast Transition and Introduction
0:34 to 2:02
Transition to the main podcast content, introducing hosts and topics.
“ChatGPT for Business gives teams a shared workspace with admin controls, permissions, and access to work and codecs in ChatGPT.”
Podcast Transition and Introduction
2:34 to 3:09
Transition to the main podcast content, introducing hosts and topics.
Discussing Fed Independence and NVIDIA
3:09 to 3:50
Hosts discuss Fed independence and NVIDIA's earnings amidst market changes.
“Welcome to the Bloomberg Business Week weekend podcast.”
Insights into NVIDIA's Earnings Report
3:50 to 4:27
An analyst provides insights on NVIDIA's tepid revenue forecast and challenges.
“More on the report as it was coming out in just a minute.”
Deep Dive with Jay Goldberg
4:27 to 6:09
Jay Goldberg discusses NVIDIA's market position and challenges ahead.
“Later on in the chat, we'll bring in Bloomberg News Big Tech team leader, Sarah Fryer.”
Analyzing NVIDIA's Growth and Risks
6:09 to 8:12
Discussion on NVIDIA's growth potential and issues with supply and demand.
“No, but like I said, my thesis has all along been that it's just getting harder for them to beat expectations.”
Sarah Fryer Joins the Analysis
8:12 to 10:29
Sarah Fryer provides context on NVIDIA's position and AI investments.
“And so I think we're starting to start asking more of those kinds of questions.”
Future of AI and NVIDIA's Role
10:29 to 14:00
Further discussion on the implications of AI on NVIDIA's business outlook.
“Jay, aside from NVIDIA's struggles in China, the biggest impediment to growth seems to be also the availability of supply.”
NVIDIA's Earnings Breakdown
14:00 to 14:37
Learn about NVIDIA's earnings results and their implications for AI in business.
“We may be too excited about what the future will hold.”
Fed Independence Discussion
14:37 to 15:34
Explore the importance of Federal Reserve independence and challenges it faces.
“That's Bloomberg News big tech team leader Sarah Fryer and Jay Goldberg, senior analyst of semiconductors and electronics with Seaport Research Partners.”
Show all 41 chapters
Fed Independence Discussion
16:41 to 17:36
Explore the importance of Federal Reserve independence and challenges it faces.
“It doesn't always work the way people expect it to.”
Political Pressure on the Fed
17:41 to 18:32
Discuss President Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve's independence.
“Seize your opportunity at michiganbusiness.org.”
Risks to Fed's Independence
18:32 to 19:35
Understand the risks posed by political attacks on the Federal Reserve.
“Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook takes political pressure on the central bank to new heights.”
Historical Context of Fed Independence
19:35 to 20:40
Explore historical instances of politicization affecting the Fed's credibility.
“We should be, and I agree wholeheartedly with Bill.”
Legal Perspectives on Fed Governance
20:40 to 21:44
Dive into legal definitions and implications of 'for cause' removal for Fed officials.
“The Fed said they will abide by what the court decides.”
Allegations Against Fed Officials
21:44 to 22:41
Analyze the implications of mortgage fraud allegations against Fed officials.
“And I hope that that's what they continue to say as this particular legal case plays out in the courts.”
Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Economy
22:41 to 24:12
Examine the effects of rising tariffs on the U.S. economy and trade relationships.
“But when it happened, if it happened matters.”
Geopolitical Ramifications of Trade Policy
24:12 to 28:00
Discuss the geopolitical risks stemming from current U.S. trade policies.
“In fact, it's frankly counterproductive to their goals of seeing interest rates come down and seeing economic strength be very significant in this country.”
The Impact of Labor Market on Productivity
28:00 to 30:55
Exploring how low birth rates and immigration affect the U.S. workforce and productivity.
“So I think it makes decision making really complicated for the United States and for the businesses that are in this country.”
AI's Role in Workforce Changes
30:55 to 31:29
Discussing the potential of AI to offset labor shortages and its current impact on jobs.
“Still ahead on Bloomberg Businessweek, more on the economy with the CFO of the fast casual chain Kava, who weighed in on the so-called fog affecting U.S.”
AI's Role in Workforce Changes
31:39 to 32:34
Discussing the potential of AI to offset labor shortages and its current impact on jobs.
“It doesn't always work the way people expect it to.”
Kava's Economic Outlook and Challenges
34:23 to 35:06
Examining Kava's recent stock performance and economic factors affecting the restaurant industry.
“This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast.”
Insights from Kava's CFO on Consumer Behavior
35:06 to 40:46
Discussing consumer spending habits during economic uncertainty and Kava's response.
“Specifically, about so-called fast casual chains feeling a bit of pain.”
Automation in Kava's Operations
40:46 to 42:00
Exploring how Kava is utilizing automation to streamline restaurant operations.
“I know that you import beef from Australia.”
Automation in the Restaurant Industry
42:00 to 45:42
Explore Kava's efforts in automating restaurant processes for efficiency.
“term to provide these high quality ingredients to consumers each and every day.”
Celebrity Partnerships and Marketing Plans
45:42 to 47:25
Discuss Kava's marketing strategies and celebrity partnerships to enhance brand image.
“Our thanks also to Nina Trentman, Bloomberg News Senior Editor and writer of the Bloomberg CFO Briefing Newsletter, Nora Melinda, joining us in our next hour as well.”
Growth Plans and Economic Strategies
47:25 to 50:41
Learn about Kava's expansion plans, hiring strategies, and cost management amid tariffs.
“Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business.”
Economic Development in Gary, Indiana
56:01 to 58:25
Learn about Gary's transportation, logistics, and tourism advancements.
“But we're also in a very good and strong position of growing transportation and logistics in the city of Gary and Northwest Indiana in the Chicagoland area.”
Mayor Eddie Melton's Strategies for Growth
58:25 to 1:01:10
Discover how Mayor Melton is addressing crime and population decline.
“I think the first major city with a black mayor, I believe, in the late 60s.”
Redistricting Implications for Indiana
1:01:10 to 1:01:45
Explore the potential impact of redistricting on local governance.
“Well, I've always looked to be a bipartisan elected official.”
New York City's Mayoral Challenges
1:01:45 to 1:03:03
Hear Mayor Eric Adams discuss safety and federal collaboration.
“The partnership between the federal government and the city and state governments is extremely important.”
Addressing Housing Affordability in New Rochelle
1:05:13 to 1:06:14
Understand New Rochelle's innovative approach to housing challenges.
“Globetrotters hunting for airfare bargains are in for a rude awakening as the days of stumbling across a cheap seat on a popular flight could soon disappear.”
Addressing Housing Affordability in New Rochelle
1:06:21 to 1:10:01
Understand New Rochelle's innovative approach to housing challenges.
“And politicians at the national level only have so much control thanks to local zoning laws and the reality of local politics.”
Community Engagement and Housing Politics
1:10:01 to 1:18:04
Explore the complexities of community involvement in urban housing development.
“But it's staying engaged with the community and reminding them there are little tangible assets in our downtown that did not exist six years ago.”
Transitioning to Sustainable Building
1:18:04 to 1:18:42
Learn about Mike Richter's journey from NHL player to sustainability advocate.
“How New York Rangers legend Mike Richter is looking to build bigger, better and more sustainable buildings.”
Transitioning to Sustainable Building
1:19:16 to 1:20:12
Learn about Mike Richter's journey from NHL player to sustainability advocate.
“Let's talk about healthcare for a second.”
Airline Pricing and AI Insights
1:20:52 to 1:21:48
Understand how airlines are leveraging AI for dynamic pricing strategies.
“Globetrotters hunting for airfare bargains are in for a rude awakening as the days of stumbling across a cheap seat on a popular flight could soon disappear.”
Transition to Sustainable Building Practices
1:24:00 to 1:29:44
Learn about the development of geothermal energy systems in sustainable buildings.
“And I've always had an interest in the environmental world and energy in particular.”
Regulatory Environment and Tax Incentives
1:29:44 to 1:33:31
Understand how tax incentives affect the geothermal energy business.
“Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio, Will Wade, energy reporter for Bloomberg News.”
Closing Remarks and Future Outlook
1:33:31 to 1:35:33
Hear closing thoughts on the potential of sustainable energy solutions.
“Mike, a three-time NHL All-Star and a 1994 Stanley Cup champ with the New York Rangers.”
Closing Remarks and Future Outlook
1:35:37 to 1:37:07
Hear closing thoughts on the potential of sustainable energy solutions.
“From emerging startups to global enterprises, Michigan offers what executives value most.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Carol Massar:What if data didn't sit still? What if intelligence moved with us? Not buried in reports, but activated in real time, where lives are being shaped, where decisions are being made. It all starts with a question. Where is the potential? Cotality turns data into clarity, intelligence into insight, insight into action. Because when intelligence moves, we all move forward. Cotality. Intelligence beyond bounds. Today's episode is brought to you by ChatGPT for Business. As a listener of this podcast, you're looking for ways to help teams move faster, make sharper decisions, and turn scattered context into work they can use.
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1:03Carol Massar:Download the ChatGPT desktop app or contact sales to learn more. When you're running a business, the best days are the ones where priorities stay on track. For midsize and large companies, that isn't always easy. Risk can touch multiple parts of an organization at the same time, often in ways that aren't immediately obvious. It might involve property, liability, or cyber. It could stem from regulatory requirements or challenges tied to a specific industry or the scale of an operation. At that level, managing risk becomes an ongoing discipline, not a one-time decision. At the Hartford, the focus is on helping businesses manage risk before it turns into something more disruptive.
1:42Carol Massar:That means working with companies to identify where they're exposed, decide what matters most, and put practical standards in place so risk is managed as part of day-to-day operations. And when losses do happen, the Hartford can pair that risk control work with insurance coverage grounded in underwriting, risk engineering, and claims experience developed over time. Learn more at thehartford.com slash risk mitigation. As industries evolve faster than ever, companies need an environment that accelerates strategic growth. And Michigan delivers on that promise. From emerging startups to global enterprises, Michigan offers what executives value most, a resilient, innovative ecosystem, diverse communities that attract top talent, and a quality of life that supports work-life balance.
2:26Carol Massar:With our unified Team Michigan approach, businesses scale faster and compete at the highest level. Michigan, pure opportunity. Seize your opportunity at michiganbusiness.org. Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts, Radio, News This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily Reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead With insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy Plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio. Hi, everyone. Welcome to the Bloomberg Business Week weekend podcast.
3:13Carol is off this week. And let's be real. It's a week that's really been about two things. The question of Fed independence after President Trump moved to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which escalates his battle for more control of the U.S. Central Bank. That's a story we were all over this past week. Also, all over earnings from the world's most valuable company. It's the chipmaker at the heart of the AI boom and at the center of the Trump administration's tariff war with China. Yes, we are, of course, talking about NVIDIA. It wrapped up its earnings season for us and gave a revenue forecast into its AI tech and its China revenue.
3:50More on the report as it was coming out in just a minute. Plus, on the economy, taking stock of the consumer as tariffs sink in with the CFO of the Mediterranean restaurant, Kava. All of that to come, we begin with the most anticipated earnings report from this past week and perhaps even from the quarter, and that is NVIDIA. The company gave a tepid revenue forecast for the current period. It signals that growth is decelerating after a staggering two-year boom in AI spending. For more, we leaned on Jay Goldberg, senior analyst for semiconductors and electronics with Seaport Research Partners, who joined us just as the numbers dropped.
4:26Carol Massar:I'm Isabelle Lee, and I joined Tim for the conversation with Jay Goldberg. Later on in the chat, we'll bring in Bloomberg News Big Tech team leader, Sarah Fryer. And as a reminder, Jay is the only analyst tracked by Bloomberg who has a sell rating on NVIDIA. My thesis is that NVIDIA is a good company, good products. They have this Blackwell ramp coming now. But I think it's just getting harder for them. They've gotten so big so quickly. I think it's getting harder and harder for them to outperform the sector. We've all gotten accustomed to having these massive blowouts quarter after quarter, and it just couldn't continue, right?
5:00This is by any normal company, this would be an OK quarter. But it's NVIDIA. We all have heightened expectations. And it was just, I think, very difficult for them to live up to it.
5:11Carol Massar:I feel like it's the outlook for sales of$54 billion plus or minus 2 % that is fuzzy against estimates of around$53.46 billion. But in both cases, remember, the wide range of analysts' forecasts due to the unknowns of China. And I feel like this is what we've talked about, Tim, how there's such a broad range. and it's hard to predict now, especially with China. But the all-important forecast for revenue, $54 billion, looks good compared with consensus. I think it's okay. I think that China's certain factor is interesting because like a year ago, if somebody or some country or even some company wasn't able to take allocation of their chips for whatever reason, there would be a line out the door of other customers waiting to take those chips.
5:51And it doesn't seem to be that the line is that long anymore, right? There's still demand there, But it's not this sort of triple oversubscribed demand that they enjoyed a year ago. We're speaking right now with Jay Goldberg, he's senior analyst for semiconductors and electronics with Seaport Research Partners. So were you proven right this quarter that you're the only analyst tracked by Bloomberg that has a sell rating on the terminal? I'll take the win. I'll take a lowercase w in this case. It's not trading at$100 yet. No, but like I said, my thesis has all along been that it's just getting harder for them to beat expectations.
6:28And I think this is exactly what happened here. There's not much growth in data center. You know, you read all the other headlines, it seems like AI is taking over the world. But in reality, I think there's just, we're going to need some time to digest the AI we already have. And I think it's natural that things slow down here for NVIDIA, who's been leading for so long. Is it a red flag to you in any way, Jay, that the company's authorizing this share buyback? Do growth companies do that? Or is that more of a sign of mature companies? It's a little bit of a red sign. I mean, it would seem to me that there's so much opportunity out there in AI.
7:05Why not spend that$60 billion in furthering their growth? I mean, as a shareholder, I would appreciate it. But as an outside observer, I have to wonder, couldn't they find other ways to deploy that? So you make the point that it's just hard to grow from here on out.
7:21Carol Massar:How much of diversification is hinged on that? We know that 40 % of the revenue is from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and I'm missing one. I'm blanking on that name. But NVIDIA now offers computers, networking gear, software services. Can we count on that? I think there's just, it's good company, good products, but like this kind of exuberance seems to be getting ahead of reality of the market. And I mean, I have to wonder, you have all the hyperscalers spending these immense amounts of money, half a trillion dollars among the six or seven of these companies. It's hard to see them getting a return on that anytime soon.
7:59Right? You sort of look through it. I don't think they have a clear plan. They're building for something that's important and AI is coming. But in terms of sort of hard dollars and cents, the ROI on that massive investment, it's not clear how they generate that. And so I think we're starting to start asking more of those kinds of questions. What are we actually going to use all this AI for? I want to bring in Sarah Fryer. She's Bloomberg News big tech team leader. She joins us from San Francisco. This was the one we've all been waiting for. And finally, it has arrived, Sarah. The company giving a tepid revenue forecast for the current period.
8:33It fuels concerns that a massive run up in AI spending is slowing. How are you thinking about the coverage of this report, especially in the context of the other big tech companies that we've heard from who have said, yeah, we are spending when it comes to AI infrastructure?
8:49Carol Massar:Well, you know, I think we have to put it all in context because NVIDIA is in this space of having so much uncertainty around the China market, around the future of spend on data centers. the analysts who cover the company had like 15 billion dollars in variance on what they expected the revenue outlook to be whether or not they included China in their models so a little bit of a grain of salt on that revenue number forecast I think it's just it's just a company where people don't quite know what to make of their discussions with the Trump administration about what they are are not allowed to sell to China and whether to even include that in their models.
9:31Carol Massar:And they did say that they didn't sell any of those H20 chips to China in the quarter. So I think there's that. So that doesn't necessarily indicate for us that the AI boom is over or anything like that. That said, the training of models, like we've seen this with OpenAI, Like the latest and greatest model is not as much of a leap from the prior. And, you know, other companies are having similar issues. So the idea that AI, large language models, are just going to accelerate in smartness until we reach super intelligence, I mean, that may not be. But there is real money going to building data centers.
10:17Carol Massar:Meta's building one the size of Manhattan and Louisiana. Like that is not over. That is very much still a part of what companies are investing in and doing. I want to bring back in Jay Goldberg. He's senior analyst at Seaport Research Partners. Jay, aside from NVIDIA's struggles in China, the biggest impediment to growth seems to be also the availability of supply. Can you talk to us more about that, how NVIDIA doesn't own factories and relies on outsourced production? So, yeah, NVIDIA's manufacturing is done at TSMC. And for a long time, last couple of years, that's been the big constraint on NVIDIA's capacity is what they can get out of TSMC, in particular, the co-host packaging, the advanced packaging that TSMC does.
11:02That's starting to ease up a little bit. TSMC is a great company. They've added a lot of capacity. But now we're starting to realize that the other big constraint on data center growth is electricity. right there's just not enough electricity with everyone wanting to open up gigawatt scale data centers for ai the u.s grid just doesn't have enough of that in fact the only place that probably could even hope to cope with this is china where there's sort of different regulatory frameworks around building new electrical capacity so i think that's a big bottleneck here i think there's also issues around blackwell itself like you start to i've talked to people who are actually putting these systems in place and it feels very much like a first generation system.
11:44They've added a lot of new configuration to the racks and the servers that they've designed. They're just not fully reliable yet. There's a lot of complaints from people who have to go through all kinds of special tooling and get out special equipment in order to make basic configurations here. I think all of those are constraining Blackwell to some demand. Are you updating your price target? Are you coming out with a note? What's the conclusion that you have? So I absolutely will come out of note. I don't think I can comment on my price target, but I see this is a lot of things moving in the direction that I've been talking about for a while now.
12:21You know, nothing in here makes me think I'm going to change my outlook. I want to bring back in Bloomberg News Big Tech Team Leader Sarah Fryer, who joins us from our San Francisco Bureau. So, Sarah, you did a great job sort of contextualizing what else is happening from the customer perspective of NVIDIA and the companies that have come out and said, yeah, we are still spending a lot of money on these data centers. We are buying from NVIDIA. Are you of the impression that we're reading too much into this idea of a broader slowdown when it comes to the tech?
12:59Carol Massar:Well, I think your analyst there did make a good point that a lot of these hyperscalers, although they are all in on investing in AI, and they have backing from their own investors on Wall Street to do that, they are showing that it's not really giving them a return on investment yet. So I think the big question in the next year or so is, can the Metas, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Can all of those who are spending on data centers show that not only is this build out going to help them win the AI race and compete against each other, but will it actually lead to higher revenue? Will it actually lead to better profit over time?
13:46Carol Massar:And so I think that that is really the thing that could slow down a lot of this investment. I think that there, for now, seems to be a lot of excitement around building. But even some executives have said, yeah, we may be overspending right now. We may be too excited about what the future will hold. And if we can't get to the point where the technology just keeps getting better and better, and it is more about taking what we have learned so far with these large language models and applying it to business, applying it to making our internal processes better, making us more efficient, using what AI has already accomplished, then that would be different than what would contribute to NVIDIA's bottom line going forward.
14:37Carol Massar:That's Bloomberg News big tech team leader Sarah Fryer and Jay Goldberg, senior analyst of semiconductors and electronics with Seaport Research Partners. They helped us break down NVIDIA's earnings results earlier this week. Coming up, another story dominating this week, Fed independence. That and more with Natasha Serin from the Yale Budget Lab. I think that the court has already signaled directionally that they really think protecting this institution and protecting its independence is immensely important. And I hope that that's what they continue to say as this particular legal case plays out in the courts.
15:13Carol Massar:But the thing that I'm worried about is the sort of institutional credibility and the view by the markets and by the public and by other countries and other investors that our central bank is independent from any type of politicization. That's kind of a genie that you can't put back in the bottle. It's something that's taken decades and generations to build. You're listening to Bloomberg Businessweek. This is Bloomberg.
15:41Carol Massar:What if data didn't sit still? What if intelligence moved with us? Not buried in reports, but activated in real time. Where lives are being shaped. Where decisions are being made. It all starts with a question. Where is the potential? Cotality turns data into clarity. Intelligence into insight. Insight into action. Because when intelligence moves, we all move forward. Cotality. Intelligence beyond bounds. The thing about AI for business? It may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across HR, IT, and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slash repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work.
16:31Carol Massar:Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business, IBM. Let's talk about healthcare for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated, for patients and providers.
17:08Carol Massar:Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. And those prescriptions? Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how.
18:06Carol Massar:Pure Opportunity. Seize your opportunity at michiganbusiness.org. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. Independence at the U.S. Federal Reserve is certainly in focus this week after President Trump's move to fire. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook takes political pressure on the central bank to new heights. The morning we recorded this, Cook filed a lawsuit suing President Trump over his attempt to fire her for alleged mortgage fraud, kicking off a historic fight over independence of the central bank.
18:48For more on the scope of presidential power to fire a Fed governor and overall Fed independence, we spoke to Natasha Sarin, co-founder and president of the Yale Budget Lab. She's also a professor of law at Yale Law School and has an appointment in the Yale School of Management's Finance Department. She worked at the Treasury Department as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy and as a counselor to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. I want to start with referencing an opinion piece from Bill Dudley on the Bloomberg earlier today. He's former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
19:17He's out with a column today that says up to now he wasn't worried about the threat that President Trump poses to the Fed's independence. Now he writes he's much more worried and he thinks the markets should be too. Does the president's attack on the Fed risk? I mean, should we be worried about the president's attack on the Fed?
19:35Carol Massar:We should be, and I agree wholeheartedly with Bill. I think you're in such unchartered territory at the moment because, remember, this is coming on the heels of many months of the administration arguing that the Federal Reserve should be cutting interest rates in accord with the political whims of the Trump administration rather than based on its very particular dual mandate, which is about inflation and it's about the labor market. And the fact that we have a central bank that's independent, that cares about those two things and those two things alone, is a really significant source of our economic security.
20:12Carol Massar:The way I know that is because we have experimented in the United States, as have other countries with federal reserves that become politicized. In this country, in the Nixon administration, we had Arthur Burns, who was pushing for interest rates to help President Nixon get elected. And the result of that was runaway inflation that increased from three to 13 percent over a two year period. So we do not want a central bank that functions based on short term political whims. And I'm really worried we're moving in exactly that direction. The Fed said they will abide by what the court decides. And President Trump yesterday also said he will abide by the same.
20:48Carol Massar:But if the court decides that Lisa the cook can stay. Are we past a red line? Like, is the damage already done when it comes to the credibility of the Fed? Hope that the answer to that question is no. And I really hope that what's important to note in the context of the legal discussion here is that the Supreme Court has really gone out of its way in a case about removal that had nothing to do with the Federal Reserve to signal that the Federal Reserve is special and that these types of positions, because it's a quasi-private institution with a particularly important role in our economy, these types of positions are really only for-cause removal positions.
21:29Carol Massar:And frankly, for-cause rises to a level in legal nomenclature that it's pretty hard to meet in the context of malfeasance. And so I think the Fed Court has already signaled directionally that they really think protecting this institution and protecting its independence is immensely important. And I hope that that's what they continue to say as this particular legal case plays out in the courts. But the thing that I'm worried about is the sort of institutional credibility and the view by the markets and by the public and by other countries and other investors that our central bank is independent from any type of politicization.
22:06Carol Massar:That's kind of a genie that you can't put back in the bottle. It's something that's taken decades and generations to build. and I worry that it evaporates pretty quickly as a result of some of the types of attacks that we're seeing. So I'm hopeful that the judiciary is going to step in appropriately here, but I'm still really disheartened to see the types of attacks that you've been seeing leveled at the Federal Reserve of recent. So let's keep your law professor hat on for a moment, Natasha, and talk a little bit about the definition of for cause in this context. You touched on it, but I'm curious if let's say the allegations about mortgage fraud end up and we haven't seen the evidence here that we don't have that yet.
22:47But when it happened, if it happened matters. My understanding is intent matters as well. So from a perspective, from a legal perspective, why don't you think this would qualify as a for cause reason?
23:03Carol Massar:I'm far from an expert on for cause removal, nor have I looked at the specifics of this particular case, and nor frankly could we have at this point, because Lisa Cook hasn't been charged with any crime or anything. This is a set of allegations that have been leveled at per by the president and by the administration. What I can say is that in the particular context of removal with respect to the Federal Reserve, the court has been pretty explicit that it thinks it's important. And you saw it in the statement that the Federal Reserve put out yesterday, these are Senate-confirmed positions with very long terms that run cross-administrations precisely to try and insulate this institution from exactly the kind of political pressure that we're seeing levied against it.
23:52Carol Massar:And this isn't just about mortgages, nor has it been about the renovation of the Federal Reserve Building, which has taken a lot of airtime over the course of the last many months. It's very clear that what's happening here is really frustration with the direction of monetary policy. And that's really no place for the administration to be acting. In fact, it's frankly counterproductive to their goals of seeing interest rates come down and seeing economic strength be very significant in this country. Earlier this month, our team reported that the average U.S. tariff rate will rise to 15.2 percent if rates are implemented as announced.
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24:28This is according to Bloomberg Economics. It's up from 13.3 percent earlier and significantly higher than the 2.3 % in 2024 before President Trump took office. Just today, the latest, the president imposed a 50 % tariff on Indian goods to punish the country for buying Russian oil. That's the highest tariff in Asia. I'm wondering how you're looking at the fraying relationship between the US and India and what's at stake more broadly when it comes to this tariff.
24:56Carol Massar:Unfortunately, what we should understand, and my colleagues at the Budget Lab are hard at work, by the way, updating our estimates with respect to what happens to the effective tariff rate and what happens to the type of revenue that we're going to see coming into this country. But roughly speaking, you've seen about an eightfold increase in the average effective tariff rate over the course of the last eight months of this administration, bringing in about $3 trillion of revenue into the country over the course of the next decade. Importantly, and this goes a bit to your point, Tim, it's never been super clear to me what exactly the objective is of this type of trade policy and where exactly it is that the administration is hoping to land.
25:38Carol Massar:Because part of what you've seen articulated is that this is really about sort of China and national security and being sure that our adversaries are held at bay. In that environment, you really are quite worried about the idea of alienating allies and being particular with respect to not just India, but if you think about Canada and Mexico and other countries where traditionally they've been very strong allies of the United States. And in fact, we've been encouraging of more manufacturing to shift, particularly to India and Vietnam, exactly because it shifts away from China. And so a little bit feels like this policy has been kind of in co-hate and all over the place.
26:17Carol Massar:And it's hard to analyze exactly why it is we're doing what it is that we're doing in order to be able to try and judge any success. What I can say is, as a result of the tariffs so far, prices are going up and going to go up further. The economy is going to be smaller. And it doesn't seem like a win from the perspective of the American consumer or from American businesses. I'm glad you brought that up because I'm curious if you think this will undo all the years of goodwill that the U.S. and India have built. Well, I think that I'm worried about, frankly, is that you are in a situation where we are very exposed to particular relationships that it's taken to, and this actually relates to our conversation about the Federal Reserve in that a lot of the sort of goodwill that you're describing are things that it's taken decades across administrations to try and build the types of working relationships with our allies that have made us this global hegemon and have made us a real marker of stability in the economy, a place that other countries want to invest in and other investors, both domestically and internationally, are keen to spend time in and around.
27:26Carol Massar:And so what you worry about in some sense is not just are you alienating one particular ally or are you moving us, sending some other countries closer into the arms of China? Of course, you're worried about all of that. But also, I think what you're worried about is the general sort of chaos of not exactly knowing where these tariffs are going to land, not knowing if it makes sense to try and shift part of your manufacturing supply chain into India, because if India's effective tariff rate is 50 percent, it's no longer the type of place where you're going to want to be pursuing a lot of that type of business.
28:01Carol Massar:So I think it makes decision making really complicated for the United States and for the businesses that are in this country. And it also runs real risks geopolitically that are pretty concerning. I promised we'd go everywhere. We have a few minutes left and I want to talk a little bit about the labor market and productivity in the context of record low birth rates in the United States, immigration that has come down quite a bit during this administration and what it means for a workforce moving forward. How do you weigh those two things? It's so interesting because I was actually talking to some colleagues at the or some friends who work at the Congressional Budget Office who have said that one of the reasons why you have productivity growth over the course of the next decade, that their estimates are going to average in the 1.82 % range, sorry, GDP growth in the 1.82 % range over the course of the next 10 years is precisely because it's on the back of an increase in labor supply that comes from immigration.
29:07Carol Massar:And the reason why that's so important is because, as you're describing, Tim, we have an aging population in this country. So a big chunk of people are going to age out of the labor force. It's really important that you have that supply coming in. In a world in which you don't have that supply coming in meaningfully, and you've kind of shut down pathways to immigration, as you've seen policy-wise over the course of the last many months, you start to lose a very significant driver of labor force growth, and And then you start to lose a very significant driver of productivity and broader economic growth.
29:37Carol Massar:But with AI investment booming, do you think that AI will be able to offset the lack of workers, whether in relation to immigration, the supply of workers that we have or are we facing right now? It's kind of hard to answer that question right now in some sense, because it's hard to know exactly what to make of the very significant capital expenditure investments we're seeing in AI. and hard to know what to make about the role that AI is having in the labor force thus far. There's a great new paper by Eric Verlnaston and co-authors where they look at the extent to which you're actually starting to see displacement in the labor force that has to do with artificial intelligence and its growth and usage across different sectors of the economy.
30:22Carol Massar:And they do find that you're starting to see, particularly for younger workers who are in the most exposed industries, you're starting to see actual impacts with respect to their possibilities of labor force entry. And so I do think that there is going to be an effect here that's meaningful. It's just really kind of early innings with respect to this type of productivity change and shift and early innings with respect to knowing whether AI is really a complement or a substitute for other aspects of the labor. Our thanks to Natasha Serin, president and co-founder of the Yale Budget Lab. Still ahead on Bloomberg Businessweek, more on the economy with the CFO of the fast casual chain Kava, who weighed in on the so-called fog affecting U.S.
31:05consumer.
31:26Carol Massar:and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business, IBM. Let's talk about healthcare for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated, for patients and providers.
32:06Carol Massar:Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. And those prescriptions, Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how. As industries evolve faster than ever, companies need an environment that accelerates strategic growth.
32:44Carol Massar:And Michigan delivers on that promise. From emerging startups to global enterprises, Michigan offers what executives value most, a resilient, innovative ecosystem, diverse communities that attract top talent, and a quality of life that supports work-life balance. With our unified Team Michigan approach, businesses scale faster and compete at the highest level. Michigan, pure opportunity. Seize your opportunity at michiganbusiness.org. This is the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Now with ChatGPT Work. I'm Carol Masser. Globetrotters hunting for airfare bargains are in for a rude awakening, as the days of stumbling across a cheap seat on a popular flight could soon disappear.
33:26Carol Massar:Bloomberg's Juan Ha reports that airlines from Delta to Virgin Atlantic are adopting artificial intelligence to change seat prices more quickly by weighing dozens of variables in real time, helping capture more revenue while shrinking pricing gaps that once allowed travelers to find bargain fares. Machine learning models can more accurately forecast demand by analyzing historical booking patterns, seed inventory, and seasonal trends, while also continuously tracking competitors' fares and capacity changes to update prices in near real time. The technology could lead to higher fares on busy routes as airlines pack flights closer to capacity, but may also result in lower fares on off-peak and lower-demand routes.
34:08Carol Massar:That's the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChatGPT.com today by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro plans.
34:25Carol Massar:This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2 p.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say, Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130. Earlier this month, Kava reduced its outlook for sales growth this year, causing its stock to drop 22 % just in a single day. The fast-casual chain foresees a potential 20-basis point impact on margins from President Trump's tariffs in the second half of the year, as import costs for items such as Australian beef or Greek olives have gone up.
35:04The restaurant industry as a whole is feeling the effects of inflation and a slowing economy. Specifically, about so-called fast casual chains feeling a bit of pain. Shares of Chipotle and Sweetgreen have also each sunk around 20 % or more since reporting lackluster second quarter earnings. We wanted an update about what Kava is doing. For that, Bloomberg News Equities reporter Nora Melinda and I turn to Trisha Tolliver, chief financial officer at Kava. Also joining us was Bloomberg News senior editor Nina Trentman. Trisha, I want to start with the consumer because on the earnings call last week, you said, quote, quote, we're operating in a fluid macroeconomic environment, and it's one that sort of creates a fog for consumers during those times they tend to step off the gas.
35:46Are things getting at all less foggy? Are they putting their foot back on the gas?
35:51Carol Massar:Well, certainly in the environment, it's still a little fog out there and the consumers are doing the best that they can to navigate it. But what we're here at Kava is to make sure that we're delivering great value for the consumer with amazing cuisine and wonderful hospitality. And we believe when we do that well, the consumers want to keep coming back. So we want to do everything that we can to make sure that we are delivering a value for them so that if they're in a fog that they want and they want to enjoy a meal out, they want to come to Cava. And we believe we've positioned ourselves to do that.
36:20Trisha, thanks for joining us. And to follow up on that, just wondering why do you think your stock sold off so much after the results? Like, of course, I know you have strong comparisons. You grew a lot in recent years. So probably tough comparisons is a better word to say it. But why is the stock down so much?
36:37Carol Massar:Yeah, you know, hard to say. The stock market goes up and the stock market goes down. We're always focused on the long term and certainly making sure that we keep in mind those strong results that we were lapping as we entered into this year. So over the last three years, we've driven traffic 20 percent. And our two year same restaurant sales growth were over 16 percent and three year at about 35 percent. And so those are really strong dynamics and really reflecting the strength of Kava and how much the consumer loves the brand and wants to continue to be with us. So the reflection of the Q2 comps was more of an anniversary or lapping over some of those higher results in the prior year.
37:16And just wondering if we're thinking about the remainder of the year and also next year, of course, we'll see how that plays out. But I'm wondering, how far are you prepared for a slowing economy in which also a consumer might make changes to their preferences in terms of where they eat, how much they spend, how often they eat out?
37:35Carol Massar:Yeah, one of the things that we do know is consumers love innovation. And certainly at Kava, we're prepared for that over the upcoming quarters. Coming soon, we'll have chicken shawarma in our restaurants, which is a hand-stacked, spit-roasted white meat chicken. That is a new offering in our restaurants in September. And then closely following that will be our cinnamon sugar pita chips that are coming. Pita chips are a fan favorite for us, and we look forward to bringing them with a little side of honey to our guests later on this year. So those things, coupled with great service and incredible hospitality, really create an opportunity for guests to enjoy us and experience that newness that they so desire.
38:16So the goal is basically to also have new menu items on the calendar so that you basically have something that draws people in, potentially offsetting any weakness you might see.
38:28Carol Massar:Certainly a robust calendar with culinary innovation as well as continued execution and enhancements to our loyalty program, which are already planned for later this year. And right now, we've got some excitement in our restaurants. We partnered with Daddy's Coats, who was a former employee of ours, to create a plushie that is our pita chip plushie, which has created a lot of buzz and excitement. Even my mom down in Florida reached out to me and saw it on Instagram, which I was surprised. Nearing 80, she was in tune to what was going on. And she went to go find them in her market in Palm Harbor and was unable to find them.
39:06Carol Massar:They were already sold out. So making sure we're culturally relevant with great cuisine is a combination that we think will be successful. So I need to hear more about this plushie. Is it a Lububu? It is our version of a Lububu. So as I mentioned, we partnered with the creator of Hippie Potter. And he did work at Cava at one point in his career. And now he's a New York City-based creator. It's super cute. I encourage you to go take a look and see if you can find them if they're still left where you are. Well, Tricia, it sounds like you all are finding really interesting ways to get more creative during this uncertain time period.
39:42Carol Massar:What about any sort of price softening? Are you all thinking about bringing down the price point at all to meet consumers where they are? You know, price has been something we've been focused on for a very long time. So over the past five years, from the end of 19 to the end of 24, we raised our menu prices about 15 percent and CPI went up 23 percent. So we were 8 percent below CPI. And I believe, as you know, in the fast food place, prices went up during that time period over 30%. So we're always focused on creating strong everyday value for our guests. And we believe we're positioned to do that.
40:18Carol Massar:So in 2025, we've raised menu pricing less than 2 % at 1.7%, well below CPI for food away from home. And again, wanting to be thoughtful. At Kava, we have very robust restaurant level margins. And we want to make sure that we're reinvesting those margins back into team members and into guests. And one way we do that with our guests is to minimize price increases as much as possible. Tricia, just talk to us a little bit about the impact of tariffs. I know that you import beef from Australia. You also import olives from Greece. So I would assume there's some price impact from tariffs. Will you pass these on to consumers?
40:57And how about price increases next year?
40:59Carol Massar:Yeah, so we do receive some items from overseas and we have an excellent supply chain team that has really navigated this very fluid environment regarding tariffs and minimize the impacts as much as possible. But we have no plans for the rest of 2025 to pass along any price increases to absorb any tariff impact that we might experience. And we're looking thoughtfully at 2026. I know it's a supply chain question, but you're the keeper of the books. So there's obviously a reason you're importing some of these things. Could you buy U.S. beef rather than import it? We do buy U.S. beef. So we have a blend of U.S.
41:38Carol Massar:and Australian beef, and there's no antibiotics ever added. But could you exclusively buy U.S. beef? We think it's important to have a balanced, scalable supply chain strategy and having a very diversified base of suppliers with high quality ingredients is the best path forward for us. always exploring what options are, but want to make sure that we're in a position for the long term to provide these high quality ingredients to consumers each and every day. We're speaking with Kava's CFO, Tricia Tolliver, joining us from Baton Rouge, Louisiana. I want to talk a little bit about automation and ways that you can save costs within the restaurant.
42:14What can you tell us about ways you're exploring automation that consumers don't yet see, whether that's in the ordering process, whether that's in the delivery process and actually bringing that food to the consumer who's waiting for it, or if it's actually in the preparation process.
42:28Carol Massar:Yeah, so always looking at ways to make our team members' lives easier, really be more efficient in our restaurants, and also creating a better guest experience. So one example in our Connect to Kitchen platform of automation is leveraging our kitchen display systems, so KDS. And so we're adding those systems to over 200 restaurants across our fleet. And what that does is allow our team members to fill orders more accurately and efficiently. So finding a better, creating a better guest experience and delivering your bowl the way you've ordered it is super important. And that's something that we're focused on.
43:03Carol Massar:And this should also increase efficiency in the restaurant overall. Another way is, you know, even more simply and not automation is making sure that we find ways to make things more efficient in the restaurant. So a little while ago, we got all of our pita chips. We used to slice them in-house to make our pita crisps and worked with our partners to slice them ahead of time so that we remove that complexity out of the restaurants themselves. We also have explored and recently entered into an investment with a company called Hyphen to look at ways to automate our second digital make line. So we're in very early stages of that.
43:39Carol Massar:But think of a world where the team member can prepare bowls and pitas at the top of the line, and there could be automation underneath the line to prepare those bowls, creating greater efficiency in the restaurant. We don't plan to ever do that on the front of our line. We think human connection is so important. And the way we leverage technology is to enhance the human experience and not replace it. Tricia, you talked about all the ways that you are trying to make the space more inviting for customers. Do you all have any plans for maybe celebrity partnerships or any sort of advertising and marketing in that sense?
44:14Carol Massar:You know, in the first quarter of 2025, we partnered with Gabby Thomas on our campaign during that first quarter of the year and really liked the opportunity for Gabby to talk to us about how she loves our food and how it fuels her and highlighted our spicy lamb meatballs. So when it makes sense, we want to lean into different partnerships, but it has to be something that's really authentic and something that really means something to both us and the person that we're associated with. Tricia, one more question from me. I'm just wondering in terms of planned growth of the company, I know that you're expanding and you have upped your plan for new stores.
44:52I'm just wondering how you're thinking about construction costs on the back of tariffs, and also are you hiring new people at this point?
45:00Carol Massar:So our new growth is very robust. This year we expect to open 68 to 70 new restaurants. And much like the supply chain team, our design and construction team has done an incredible job navigating tariffs. And we're not expecting any impacts to our overall costs of our restaurants that we open. In some cases, they were able to minimize or offset some of the impacts by ordering because of our strong balance sheet, leveraging our balance sheet to pre-order items to make sure that we weren't as exposed to tariffs as we might be. So the team's done a great job. And as we grow, we anticipate that we will have needs to continue to support that growth as we move forward.
45:40That was Tricia Tolliver, CFO of Kava. Our thanks also to Nina Trentman, Bloomberg News Senior Editor and writer of the Bloomberg CFO Briefing Newsletter, Nora Melinda, joining us in our next hour as well. That wraps up the first hour of the weekend edition of Bloomberg Business Week from Bloomberg Radio. Ahead in our next hour, we check in with two mayors about how they're tackling challenges and creating opportunities for their communities.
46:03Carol Massar:Yes, well, Gary is one of those historic cities that helped build this nation, of course, founded in the early 1900s and 1906 by U.S. Steel. Gary works. The U.S. Steel plant is the reason why Gary even exists today. We sit on the southernmost tip of Lake Michigan. like you mentioned in your opening remarks about 30 minutes from downtown Chicago so our logistics and proximity in the midwest is is very unique plus from puck stopper to power starter new york rangers legendary goaltender mike richter on helping businesses transition to clean energy i've always had an interest in the environmental world and energy in particular and that intersection between finance and energy is a massive one.
46:51It's only grown in the last two decades. So the stop at Yale was excellent. It helped me position myself and have a segue from one world to another. This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Tim Stenevek. Stay with us. Today's top stories and global business headlines are coming up right now. So there's a lot of noise about AI,
47:12Carol Massar:but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now, a global workforce of 300 ,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94 % of common questions. Not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM. Let's talk about healthcare for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling.
47:50Carol Massar:The system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated, for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients.
48:24Carol Massar:And those prescriptions? Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how. As industries evolve faster than ever, companies need an environment that accelerates strategic growth. And Michigan delivers on that promise. From emerging startups to global enterprises, Michigan offers what executives value most, a resilient, innovative ecosystem, diverse communities that attract top talent, and a quality of life that supports work-life balance.
48:59Carol Massar:With our unified Team Michigan approach, businesses scale faster and compete at the highest level. Michigan, pure opportunity. Seize your opportunity at michiganbusiness.org. This is the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChachiPT. Now with ChatGPT Work. I'm Carol Masser. Globetrotters hunting for airfare bargains are in for a rude awakening, as the days of stumbling across a cheap seat on a popular flight could soon disappear. Bloomberg's Juan Ha reports that airlines from Delta to Virgin Atlantic are adopting artificial intelligence to change seat prices more quickly by weighing dozens of variables in real time, helping capture more revenue while shrinking pricing gaps that once allowed travelers to find bargain fares.
49:43Carol Massar:Machine learning models can more accurately forecast demand by analyzing historical booking patterns, seed inventory, and seasonal trends, while also continuously tracking competitors' fares and capacity changes to update prices in near real time. The technology could lead to higher fares on busy routes as airlines pack flights closer to capacity, but may also result in lower fares on off-peak and lower-demand routes. That's the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChatGPT.com today by selecting Work Mode.
50:21Carol Massar:Available on Plus and Pro plans. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube. Plenty ahead in our second hour of the weekend edition of Bloomberg Business Week, including a lineup of mayors from across America's cities, touching on topics from housing affordability to rebuilding financial opportunities to even the president's threats of deploying the National Guard. Plus, he's a U.S. Hockey Hall of Famer, a three-time NHL All-Star, a Stanley Cup champion, and now he's dedicated to saving the planet one efficiency measure at a time.
51:07New York Rangers legend Mike Richter joins us later this hour. First up this hour, as you know from listening to or watching our program, we love talking to mayors across the U.S. They're the ones on the front lines of this economy, and they see how policies from Washington are affecting Main Street and their communities. I mentioned a rotation of mayoral voices. First up, Eddie Melton. He's the mayor of Gary, Indiana. It's just 25 miles from Chicago, and it's known for a once-thriving steel industry. Also once the second-largest city in Indiana. But as the steel industry has declined, so too did its population and the incomes of its residents.
51:43Now the median household income in the city is about$35 ,000. That's according to the U.S. Census Bureau, compared with the median of$69 ,000 in the state. Speaking with Carroll and Bloomberg TV anchor Matt Miller, Mayor Melton says that Nippon Steel's deal with U.S. steel is central to reviving the U.S. steel industry. Yes.
52:03Carol Massar:Well, Gary is one of those historic cities that helped build this nation, of course, founded in the early 1900s and 1906 by U.S. Steel. Gary works. The U.S. Steel plant is the reason why Gary even exists today. We sit on the southernmost tip of Lake Michigan, like you mentioned in your opening remarks, about 30 minutes from downtown Chicago. So our logistics and proximity in the Midwest is very unique. So a lot of progress has been happening. We know that the downturn of the economy in the steel industry over the past 40 to 50 years, automation, U.S. Steel at its height had nearly 30 ,000 employees.
52:48Carol Massar:And right now we're about 4 ,000 employees, still one of our largest employers. but recently many of you already know the deal between the pond steel and u.s steel was on the table now that the deal has been finalized the pond will be investing nearly three billion dollars in the gary works plant estimating a little bit close to a thousand new jobs and that's going to help us in our resurgence back in the local and national economy i guess it's not a bad thing. I'm from, Mayor, I'm from Ohio, so I have seen a lot of Japanese-owned businesses do really well, employ a lot of Americans, make great products.
53:33But what does it mean to you that a company like U.S. Steel is now going to become a wholly owned subsidiary of a Japanese company?
53:43Carol Massar:Well, we know that U.S. Steel is an iconic brand. It's still an American company in my eyes and many of the eyes of those that are close to the city and to this deal. And I've been in close relationship with leadership at Nippon, with President Ono San, who is in the Nippon America president, chairman of the board, Chairman Mori San, who is extremely passionate about investing not only in the steel industry, but also in our communities in Mount Valley and Gary and Alabama and Arkansas, so many other places where U.S. still has a footprint. And we know from a national security perspective, Japan is one of our closest allies.
54:29Carol Massar:So like you mentioned, the investments in other businesses that they've done around the country, it just makes sense that U.S. Steel at one point was the number one steel producer in the world. Right now, they're ranked 24th. But Napan is already ranked number four in the world. So this collaboration and this partnership, I think, is going to yield tremendous outcomes on steel production, securing good union jobs, but also making sure that national security is still strong and vibrant and local communities will thrive. You know, from certainly doing some of these city leadership programs and city programs, and certainly anyone familiar with the programs that Bloomberg is involved in, in that a strong economy for a city is not just necessarily one industry, right?
55:23Carol Massar:You want diversification. Talk to us about what you're doing on that front. I know you've got the Hard Rock Casino, you've got some other things certainly there in the area, but talk to us about how important it is to maybe diversify the economy as well to provide for longer economic momentum. Yeah. So for so many years, the city had been dependent upon a steel industry. I've been very intentional on diversifying that. I was state senator for nearly eight years here in Indiana, representing Gary in Northwest Indiana, served as ranking minority on appropriations. So I'm very passionate about the economy from a macro and micro level.
56:06Carol Massar:But we're also in a very good and strong position of growing transportation and logistics in the city of Gary and Northwest Indiana in the Chicagoland area. For example, the city of Chicago and the city of Gary, we have a partnership with our very own airport, the Gary Chicago International Airport, which is primarily private as well as cargo. And we are doing great works in our partnership with UPS currently. Just recently, we have a developer that's partnering with FedEx to build a 300 ,000 square foot facility, a warehousing location right in the footprint near our airport, but also a deep water seaport in Buffington Harbor that made it available for shipments of goods and things of that nature that we're looking to partner and collaborate around dealing with trade.
56:57Carol Massar:And this airport sits right in a foreign trade zone. So not a lot of communities can say or share the logistics that we have when it comes down to transportation by 90 i-65 every major corridor if you look up and it says indiana is the crossroads to america which is one of our taglines and you look at the rail lines the highways the byways in gary we're definitely at the heartbeat of that so transportation logistics is tremendously a great opportunity. Tourism and hospitality right now, as you mentioned, our partnership with the Hard Rock has been solidified where Hard Rock has built a brand new casino on 8094, which is at the gateway and corridor going into the Illinois border.
57:42Carol Massar:But right now we've invested in a future partnership with the Hard Rock to build a brand new convention center to build out an entertainment corridor for Northwest Indiana. So$140 million investment that's going to be going into that gateway. Harrock is in preparation to build a new hotel at that gateway and corridor, along with other private developers that we're going to build at the same time to build that out. We are talking right now with, for those of you just joining us, with Mayor Eddie Melton, the mayor of Gary, Indiana, and a famous worldwide at one point for the Gary Steelworks and the city itself, the birthplace of the Jackson family, of course.
58:29I think the first major city with a black mayor, I believe, in the late 60s. And Mayor Melton, you have done some things. You've cut homicides in Gary. You've stabilized city finances in Gary. and you've reversed the population decline. How have you managed to do that? And I was going to ask how you keep up momentum, but how have you even done that to begin with, especially reversing the population decline? That seems like a huge step for any city, but certainly for Gary, Indiana.
59:03Carol Massar:Yeah, it's a collaboration, a partnership. We have a really good team. One of the things that I learned being a part of the Harvard Bloomberg program is, and this is something that Michael Bloomberg came and shared with us, is you have to build a good team first. And that was something I was very passionate about. I was one of the cohorts of 2024 of new mayors to help that Bloomberg helped build our 100 day plan with us. And this is the fruits of that labor. Right. So from the population decline aspect, we've done things to make it smarter and easier to build in the city of Gary. Home values are starting to increase significantly.
59:44Carol Massar:We've seen an increase in our building permits, individuals investing in real estate, coming to flip old and abandoned homes, but also building new construction as well. So Indiana University Northwest recently did a white paper that said for the first time in 50 years, Gary's population has grown. Not a significant growth, but it's definitely incremental growth, a little bit close to 600 new residents. But you got to think about it. We were losing hundreds of residents for decades. So we're definitely proud of that. When we talk about the homicide approach, sadly, when I was growing up, Gary had the stigma of being a dangerous place or, quote unquote, murder capital.
1:00:29Carol Massar:This is one of those stigmas that other communities have had as well. Well, that's not the case anymore. I think when you look at the work that we're doing on violence prevention, workforce development and training, collaborating with our schools. Right. And actually policing smarter using technology. All of that has played a part in that, but also great leadership with our new chief of police. Mayor Milton, I just want to ask you in just about 40 seconds. Indiana has come up as one of the possible states that could do redistricting mid cycle. J.D. Vance, the vice president, is going to Indianapolis.
1:01:03Carol Massar:Plus, I believe it's tomorrow. What impact might redistricting have on your efforts to revitalize your city? Well, I've always looked to be a bipartisan elected official. But I don't know how much more power they will want in the state of Indiana that they already currently have a supermajority. This is simply to win more congressional seats and to bring back the legislature right now. I don't know if that's going to be the best use of tax dollars. That was Eddie Melton, the mayor of Gary, Indiana, along with Carroll and Bloomberg News TV anchor Matt Miller. Another mayor who's been in the news lately is one who's a little closer to home for those who live in the tri-state area.
1:01:45Ahead of New York City's upcoming mayoral election in November, Mayor Eric Adams sat down with Bloomberg News senior reporter Miles Miller to address President Trump's threat to deploy the National Guard in New York, like he's done in Washington, D.C.
1:01:59Carol Massar:The partnership between the federal government and the city and state governments is extremely important. And I think there's a role we need. My role is to make sure New Yorkers are safe and the numbers are shown we're doing that. And the partnership of making sure guns don't come into our city. And that's what we want to continue to do with the federal government. We already collaborate with the federal government every morning, 10 a.m., with HIDA, city, state, and federal authorities, to go after shooters and those who bring guns into our cities. We are very clear, always have been, I have never moved away from the public safety.
1:02:35Carol Massar:That's the prerequisite to our prosperity. And we're going to continue to do an amazing job. And if the federal government wants to communicate with us and ask us to go to other municipalities and help them see what we're doing, we're willing to do that. because it's safe. America is a safe New York City, and we want to help any way we can. You're listening to Bloomberg Businessweek. Coming up, we stick with the mayors of America and check in with the mayor of New Rochelle, New York, on tackling housing affordability. That's next. This is Bloomberg.
1:03:07The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works.
1:03:12Carol Massar:At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across HR, IT, and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slashed repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business, IBM. Let's talk about healthcare for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone.
1:03:50Carol Massar:That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a health care company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated, for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. And those prescriptions? Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills.
1:04:28Carol Massar:Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how. As industries evolve faster than ever, companies need an environment that accelerates strategic growth, and Michigan delivers on that promise. From emerging startups to global enterprises, Michigan offers what executives value most, a resilient, innovative ecosystem, diverse communities that attract top talent, and a quality of life that supports work-life balance. With our unified Team Michigan approach, businesses scale faster and compete at the highest level. Michigan, pure opportunity.
1:05:04Carol Massar:Seize your opportunity at michiganbusiness.org. This is the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Now with ChatGPT work. I'm Carol Masser. Globetrotters hunting for airfare bargains are in for a rude awakening as the days of stumbling across a cheap seat on a popular flight could soon disappear. Bloomberg's Juan Ha reports that airlines from Delta to Virgin Atlantic are adopting artificial intelligence to change seat prices more quickly by weighing dozens of variables in real time, helping capture more revenue while shrinking pricing gaps that once allowed travelers to find bargain fares.
1:05:41Carol Massar:Machine learning models can more accurately forecast demand by analyzing historical booking patterns, seat inventory, and seasonal trends, while also continuously tracking competitors' fares and capacity changes to update prices in near real time. The technology could lead to higher fares on busy routes as airlines pack flights closer to capacity, but may also result in lower fares on off-peak and lower-demand routes. That's the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChachiPT. Put ChachiPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChachiPT.com today by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro Plans.
1:06:24Carol Massar:this is the bloomberg business week daily podcast listen live each weekday starting at 2 p.m eastern on apple carplay and android auto with the bloomberg business app you can also listen live on amazon alexa from our flagship new york station just say alexa play bloomberg 11 30 well housing is an issue all over the country we know this there's not enough of it it's too expensive because there's not enough of it. And politicians at the national level only have so much control thanks to local zoning laws and the reality of local politics. So what is a city to do? New Rochelle just outside of New York City is trying to buck the trend and build homes.
1:07:07We're joined by the mayor, Yadira Ramos Herbert. She's a Democrat of New Rochelle. She joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio. We should note that the city of New Rochelle has received funding as part of the Bloomberg Philanthropies Mayor's Challenge, and the mayor has participated in various Bloomberg Philanthropies programs.
1:07:26Carol Massar:Mayor Ramos-Herbert, thanks for being here. Thank you for having me. As we've been discussing, we know the U.S. housing supply and affordability really remains a prominent issue for so many Americans who are looking to find a place to live. Tell us a bit more about what you're doing in the city of New Rochelle, which, of course, we know is only about 17 miles away from where we're sitting right now in midtown Manhattan. And what are you all doing to address some of these concerns? Absolutely. So back in 2015, New Rochelle set up what we now call the New Rochelle model, a form-based zone code. Essentially, the city council, in partnership with RXR and working with residents, really sat down and took a look at where can we build?
1:08:02Carol Massar:And what do we need to do to streamline processes, sort of front load some of the environmental reviews and processes, so that when developers come in, they can be approved in as little as 90 days, break ground, and essentially start leasing out in three years. 90 days. I mean, that's like a different language than we're like a different reality than we're used to if we're talking about development. Just contextualize that for us. How long would it typically take if you if you weren't able to fast track this? I mean, I guess anywhere from five to 10 years. Yeah. OK. I mean, within the last 10 years and not years.
1:08:34Yeah, exactly.
1:08:35Carol Massar:Exactly. You mentioned RXR. Talk a little bit about public-private partnerships here and how you view as mayor the need to partner with for-profit companies in order to get this done. Absolutely. It's been a key to what's allowed it to be successful. Those resources allow us to invest in our community without raising property taxes. We worked with the community here. What do you want to see in New Rochelle? And through our public-private partnership, we've enhanced plazas, we've brought murals, we've increased EV charging stations, We've bought a black box theater right to our main street. We're opening parklets.
1:09:07Carol Massar:And so really working together, providing assurances to developers, everybody essentially wins. Never mind that rents are actually holding steady and actually decrease the median rent in 2020 to 2023 at a rate that's unheard of in the region. So what have been some of the challenges? Of course, this isn't something I imagine had to have been easy to accomplish. So what were some of the challenges that you all experienced as you were trying to deliver a world, an area, a city in which things are a bit more affordable? Sure. I mean, what's really wonderful is when this started, I wasn't on the city council.
1:09:36Carol Massar:I was a mom of two kids. So I was the resident sort of being like, I want to see stuff in the downtown. I want to know what's going on. I think change is hard. Right. And right now I kind of call it like our teenage years, you know, where two thirds of our buildings have been approved. We've authorized 11 ,000 units, 11 ,000 kitchen table moments and about two thirds have been authorized and leasing up. And so there's construction and there's noise. And maybe with the right turn you make for coffee, you have to make a left and wait a few more minutes at the light. But it's staying engaged with the community and reminding them there are little tangible assets in our downtown that did not exist six years ago.
1:10:08Carol Massar:Never mind, again, contributing to the housing and other investments we've made surrounding the downtown. What have been the politics of this? Because when we talk about zoning and we talk about the idea of building more dense and affordable housing or just more housing, people, I guess I could rephrase this. People love to complain that housing is too expensive. But then when it comes to actually building that housing, if it's put up to a vote, they strike it down. Not in my neighborhood. They don't want it. I understand. Well, it depends on it depends on where you live, because that has to do with zoning.
1:10:37And that might not actually be up to you in certain parts of New York City. It's not necessarily up to us. And we've seen we've seen that play out. But politically, this stuff can get really charged. What do they think of it?
1:10:47Carol Massar:Absolutely. I mean, it's the forum based zone coding essentially allows the city council, the elected officials to set the scaffolding and sort of pinpoint where, and then hands off. The professional staff actually close the deal. We have a council manager form of government. So our city manager, our commissioner of development, we have an industrial development agency that really work out the nuances, the financial elements of it, and the projects are authorized. So again, when you decide to build a new Rochelle, there's assurances. You don't have to worry about a project being voted down the way maybe other regions and municipalities do.
1:11:16Carol Massar:If you fit the specs that we have already identified, again, the council working with the staff and the community, you have an assurance that you're going to be able to lease up within two to three years of breaking ground. So you mentioned that you spent a lot of time talking to the community, engaging with the community to see what they'd like to see reflected in the area. What are some of the things that they've been interested to see? Green space, of course, more space for kids to play, more dogs are a big hit. And so dog runs and opportunities for dogs to have space to kind of stretch their legs, I guess, leaving the apartment.
1:11:45Carol Massar:We are a huge lover of the arts. So as I mentioned, we have a black box theater that's going to open the first half of 2026. and we've added murals to the community. But the downtown development has also served as the catalyst for other parts of development. So we have a project called The Link. We're taking three lanes of a Robert Moses kind of project and making it a linear park, connecting parts of our farther out of our downtown to the actual downtown proper. We just approved a project, Pratt Landing is what we call it. It's going to give waterfront access in addition to a community asset in an armory, 99 condos, 100 apartment buildings and a hotel.
1:12:19Carol Massar:and we're revitalizing our train station. In three to five years, we'll be the only station in Westchester where with one seat, you can go to Grand Central or Penn. And so this development has allowed us to really respond to resident needs, concerns, and what they want to see in a really holistic way. So we like talking to mayors because everybody who listens and watches our program knows that. It's where the rubber meets the road when it comes to actually getting stuff done. For sure. Really being accountable each and every day to the people you serve because you see them out. You are there with them.
1:12:46Carol Massar:Catch us live on that. I'm wondering specifically about transportation and in an environment where you talked about, okay, well, if there is more density, if there is more housing, you might have to wait more when you take a right turn to get your coffee because the traffic has increased. Do we live in a world where we can realistically think that we could improve mass transit in small towns? Or have we shown that as a country, we just cannot make those investments? I mean, And look at California's high-speed rail and the failure that I think many people would say we saw there. So New Rochelle already has the privilege of being the second busiest line on the New Havens lines, second only to Grand Central, believe it or not.
1:13:24Carol Massar:And the majority of our buildings are actually being built around this transit-oriented development. We're also a hub to nine bus lines, county and city bus lines, so you can get to the Bronx or Yonkers right from the same transit center. And our development allowed us to invest in some micro-mobility options. We have something called the Circuit, which is an electric shuttle. You can call it like you call Uber. Absolutely free. and takes you to various parts of the city. We're a scooter nation as well. So micro-mobility and we're investing in bike lanes. The link will actually add bike lanes and connectivity in another way.
1:13:53Carol Massar:So I think based on our foundation, but also the way we've been able to expand, we are addressing transportation in a green way. That's interesting to hear that, like on a micro-mobility level, in addition to changing the way traffic patterns are. We're speaking with Yadira Ramos-Herber, the Democratic mayor of New Rochelle, joining us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio. As I mentioned, housing is probably one thing that Democrats and Republicans at the national level can agree on needs to be addressed. Their way of doing that doesn't necessarily fall in line with one another. They don't see eye to eye.
1:14:24We heard from J.D. Vance at the vice presidential debate last year talking about opening up federal land, for example, to build more housing. What is your advice to leaders around the country? Because you've been able to do this successfully as ways that other communities can do this.
1:14:39Carol Massar:I mean, I think some of the models that can be borrowed from it, streamlined processes. What are the pain points? Every municipality knows. You're essentially saying get rid of regulation. Streamline processes. Okay. How do you do that without getting rid of regulation? How do you make sure that environmental review, that you're not going to kill the sea turtles or whatever if you build here? So we did conduct an environmental review back in 2015 and in partnership with RXR. So it's not that we're getting rid of it. We're just front loading that process so that you have a sense already of if you choose to develop in this site, what are some of the issues?
1:15:09Carol Massar:What's the investment you're going to have to make to meet those kinds of codes? So I think that's one. We looked at a lot of underutilized sites. Some of our sites were like old parking lots that were not being used, that were in bad shape. You know, former schools that were closed, but the structure was still there. And so every municipal leader knows their community. They know their corners where there could be a little bit more energy and lights on. And that, but that in combination with streamlining processes, I think will allow some positive results for this on the housing front. So I want to go back to your earlier question just about what types of advice.
1:15:41Carol Massar:I mean, I know you mentioned like some of the things that you all are working on, but I would say, you know, more logistically, what type of advice would you give to other parts of the nation? Because not everywhere is like New Rochelle, of course. We were talking about L.A. We could talk about New York City here in Manhattan, Midtown. Sure. What is some advice that people can really take away here? I still stand by it. You know your corners. You know your blocks. You know the underutilized sites. You know where maybe it's like they're really business hasn't grown there. It really has. It's been empty.
1:16:07Carol Massar:There's lack of density. And I know it's tricky to say midtown Manhattan, right? If you're going to use that specifically, I appreciate where we are. But every leader knows every corner. I know every corner, every block and where to think about that. And so really thinking about what can be catalyzed. And again, we all know our own zoning and processes. Really being honest and holistically reviewing that, I think, will allow different communities to catalyze and also add housing in a way that helps to address the crisis that we're facing. You have a law degree. Yes. You're a litigator. Yes. In a previous life or currently, is this a job that you can do while you're mayor?
1:16:40Carol Massar:Yes. That's a great question. I would not be able to do it at the same pace that I did when I was a new lawyer. I was also an associate dean at Columbia Law School prior to becoming mayor. But I actually am looking to do a little bit of practice on the side. So it raises the question about your own future and how you think about your own political path forward. What's next for you? I don't think about my political path forward right now. The job is to make sure all 11 ,000 units, homes, kitchen table moments are catalyzed. It's to make sure the link launches. It's to see the Pratt Landing Project, the Waterfront Project.
1:17:14Carol Massar:And we also started something called the Vanguard Initiative. We are investing$2.25 million in small businesses. I want to turn on those lights on every one of those first floors in my downtown. That's my mission. That's the only thing I'm focused on right now. You don't think at all about a bigger platform? I love the portfolio that New Rochelle has given me. And that's really why I want to finish the job. And to think otherwise would take my distraction. When do you think the job will be finished? That's a great question. I mean, the link, you know, maybe I think within, I would argue within five to seven, we will see a significant transformative change in the downtown that can be measured through sales tax revenue and other initiatives and incentives coming to life.
1:17:51That was Yadira Ramos-Herbert, mayor of New Rochelle, New York. Bloomberg News cross-asset reporter Emily Grafeo joining me there as well. You're listening to Bloomberg Businessweek, coming up from saving pucks to saving the planet. How New York Rangers legend Mike Richter is looking to build bigger, better and more sustainable buildings. We are simply transferring heat. It's the idea of a cold beer in your hand on a warm summer day. There's a really a therm transfer, a heat transfer from that warm hand to the cold beer. The beer heats up, your hand cools down. We use the thermal mass of the earth to do that.
1:18:26And it sounds complicated, but it's just physics. And really, the general temperature of the Earth doesn't waver a lot once you go about four feet down below the frost line. The ambient temperature is about 55 degrees, and we take advantage of that. That's next. This is Bloomberg.
1:18:46The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works.
1:18:52Carol Massar:At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across HR, IT, and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slash repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business, IBM. Let's talk about healthcare for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone.
1:19:29Carol Massar:That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a health care company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated, for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. And those prescriptions? Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills.
1:20:07Carol Massar:Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how. As industries evolve faster than ever, companies need an environment that accelerates strategic growth, and Michigan delivers on that promise. From emerging startups to global enterprises, Michigan offers what executives value most, a resilient, innovative ecosystem, diverse communities that attract top talent, and a quality of life that supports work-life balance. With our unified Team Michigan approach, businesses scale faster and compete at the highest level. Michigan, pure opportunity.
1:20:43Carol Massar:Seize your opportunity at michiganbusiness.org. This is the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Now with ChatGPT work. I'm Carol Masser. Globetrotters hunting for airfare bargains are in for a rude awakening as the days of stumbling across a cheap seat on a popular flight could soon disappear. Bloomberg's Juan Ha reports that airlines from Delta to Virgin Atlantic are adopting artificial intelligence to change seat prices more quickly by weighing dozens of variables in real time, helping capture more revenue while shrinking pricing gaps that once allowed travelers to find bargain fares.
1:21:20Carol Massar:Machine learning models can more accurately forecast demand by analyzing historical booking patterns, seed inventory, and seasonal trends, while also continuously tracking competitors' fares and capacity changes to update prices in near real time. The technology could lead to higher fares on busy routes as airlines pack flights closer to capacity, but may also result in lower fares on off-peak and lower-demand routes. That's the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChatGPT.com today by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro Plans.
1:22:02Carol Massar:you're listening to the bloomberg business week daily podcast catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 eastern listen on apple carplay and android auto with the bloomberg business app or watch us live on youtube bright core energy is digging deep for geothermal heating and cooling not just geothermal though they're also working on energy efficient lighting solar energy really everything to help big buildings use less energy mike richter joins us he's president of bright core energy also former three-time nhl all-star goalie a 1994 stanley cup champion with the new york rangers he joins us from armonk new york also with us in the bloomberg interactive brokers studio will wade he's energy reporter for bloomberg news did you play in the nhl i did not i can't skate at all okay i can't either i just wanted to make sure before we move forward a uh Full disclosure, Mike Richter's brother, Joe Richter, works here at Bloomberg for Bloomberg's research arm, Bloomberg Intelligence.
1:23:00Good to have you both with us. Mike, I just want to start with you for people who know you from your career in the NHL. What was your transition like going from playing hockey professionally to working in sustainability with a little stop at Yale between that? Well, well, first, thanks for having me on. Great. It was it's it's an adjustment, I think. And I ended my career about 38 years old back in 2024. And you're a little rudderless. You've been given your time, energy, focus to being as good as you can be in one very specific area. And it is a bit of an artificial world. And I loved every second of it.
1:23:42And I had a, you know, it was a great gift to be able to play in the league and in the, you know, New York area in particular. It's really a special place. But I had a young family at the time and I was injured and there was a decision to make. You know, do you stay within the confines of that same, I guess, focus? And I've always had an interest in the environmental world and energy in particular. And that intersection between finance and energy is a massive one. It's only grown in the last two decades. So the stop at Yale was excellent. It helped me position myself and have a segue from one world to another.
1:24:21And this is just a great opportunity and a really worthwhile pursuit. So Mike, tell us about your transition to developing sustainable buildings. I'm particularly interested in the geothermal. I've seen some projects do that. It's unique. It's not something we're seeing a whole lot of yet, but I think we might be seeing more of it. Yeah, great question. I guess two things. The energy efficiency is kind of always invoked, right? If you're using less resources, you're going to be paying less. And so ultimately, our value proposition is selling savings to commercial industrial buildings. And there is no better way of heating and cooling a building than ground source heat pump.
1:25:06And I just want to make a distinction there. Geothermal, as we see a lot of, Google's doing some work out there. some really great companies are working on the hot rock geothermal out west very deep in the ground using steam to turn turbines as you would with a coal power plant or even a nuclear power plant and literally creating electrons we don't do that we are simply transferring heat it's the idea of a cold beer in your hand on a warm summer day there's a really a therm transfer a heat transfer from that warm hand to the cold beer. The beer heats up, your hand cools down. We use the thermal mass of the earth to do that.
1:25:43And it sounds complicated, but it's just physics. And really, the general temperature of the earth doesn't waver a lot once you go about four feet down below the frost line. The ambient temperature is about 55 degrees, and we take advantage of that. You have heat pumps just like you would in your air conditioning unit or more particularly in your freezer and refrigerator. And instead of blowing that hot air down the ground and keeping the cool air in the box, we just put it through a closed loop system into the ground. That heat transfer takes place and you're lifting the air from 55 degrees in the wintertime to maybe 70 to be warm inside.
1:26:23And in the summertime, it's almost free air conditioning. So we always say the coefficients of performance are as good as you're going to get right now. And honestly, we try to be agnostic on what we're offering. And if there was a better method of heating, cooling, and building, we'd be on it. But this has been going on in New York for about two decades. And I'm speaking to you in Ironman, New York. We have an office in Brooklyn, but also one in Stockholm, Sweden, where they have been leading the charge with a lot of the design and the execution. So we're thrilled by this. And as you know, energy costs are going up and demand is skyrocketing.
1:26:56So good time to be in this place. The geothermal involves digging a lot of holes in the ground. is this something you can add to an existing building or does it have to be when you build the building new yeah and that is a great question that is the choke point where it gets quite complicated um you know 80 of the building stock in a city like new york for example is going to be here in 20 years so we've done new builds and we love it it's virgin territory you come in you get the wells stuck in the ground you cap them and you connect it to the mechanical system inside build a building around it and you're done.
1:27:30How do you go into a building that's existing and then do that same routine? Very, very difficult. You're space constrained and you're even sometimes technologically constrained with what's already in the building. So that's been the technological transformation that we've been able to pull across the Atlantic from Europe. Just like the oil and gas industry has had such great innovation, we are really starting to ride in the coattails of that innovation. And we are able to go now. The addressable market is blown up in terms of its scale. When you can start doing the space constraint places like an urban setting, New York City is a great example.
1:28:08And the retrofit market, we literally have smaller rigs now that can get into these tight spaces, nine and a half feet of clearance and be able to go 500 feet down through the substructure of the building into Manhattan Schist, the bedrock. And it's very stable. seismically. The thermal conductivity is phenomenal. It's a really amazing thing that you can do, and it actually enhances the strength of the building. It doesn't weaken it at all, but you get a transformation in terms of not only your greenhouse gases, but really, as I said, we're selling savings, what you're paying operationally month to month to the energy companies.
1:28:47So you could put solar on the roof and geothermal in the basement and make savings at both ends of the building. You really can, actually. And these heat pumps are moved by the power that they use is electricity, and they're very, very efficient. But I think in a place like New York, there's limited opportunities. We can change every light bulb. We're probably not putting solar because you think of a post-it stamp roof with this massive building below, 50-story building, for example. You're just not going to get much power from that small solar array. What do you do? And we've been able to actually do retrofits in Manhattan, right in the heart of Manhattan.
1:29:24And it profoundly changes the trajectory of that building's ability to afford payments on the energy and just see an ROI that's really substantial. We're speaking with Mike Richter, president of BrightCore Energy, also former three-time NHL All-Star goalie, 1994 Stanley Cup champion with the New York Rangers. Also with us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio, Will Wade, energy reporter for Bloomberg News.
1:29:49Carol Massar:Mike, talk a little bit about the regulatory environment. There's been a lot of, you know, headlines when it comes to tax incentives for green energy. Is that area helping or hurting your business right now? There's no question. We're a young industry in North America anyway. And so the incumbents have an advantage. They have scale. And that's why you have these incentive structures. The Trump administration recognized the efficiency that's brought by geothermal. And this reconciliation bill, we came out really well. These massive federal tax treatments are transferable. So not-for-profits can use them.
1:30:31Higher ed, houses of worship. Again, we're in the commercial industrial space and it's really meaningful. You can actually start to save up to 40. And if it's an economic development zone, 50 % of the capex of the front end costs. And it's already established that the operational costs are there. The problem was you could never get to them because it's so expensive up front. All those holes in the ground, that's a meaningful expense that you wouldn't have, say, with air source heat pumps. What's great about this is the ground source heat pumps are two times as efficient as air source. So four times efficient is often what we're replacing.
1:31:07So there's really meaningful savings if you just unlock that CapEx up front. Now you can have third-party finance, of course. But the big thing is we've maintained those incentives, and they're really significant. And that's at the federal level. These things are stackable. So you have federal incentives. You have individual states, have better or worse, and even different utility zones. And the utilities understand the squeeze that they're in because there's so much demand coming with AI and data centers. So what do you do with that? You look toward efficiency. And if I can make, say, the Empire State Building more efficient than it once was, and it's using 40 % less electrons, that's a meaningful diminishment for Con Ed, in this case, and Con Ed territory.
1:31:50So they've been incredibly creative and supportive. So we're in a very, very good spot with that. The upfront costs, though, with this technology are pretty high when you think about the CapEx involved. How do you make the numbers work and sort of especially compared in places where energy isn't that expensive? Well, thankfully, this is where my goaltending background helps. I leave it to the finance department and they've been incredible. Look, you can't lie with these numbers. So you just pass the problem. You pass the problem, right? But the physics have to work. And so we do a no-go-to-go evaluation right up front.
1:32:25understanding what the thermal load of the building is and how many boreholes we can get in there and how much it's going to cost per linear foot and all those things come into play. Excuse me. But in the end, with these incentives, net of the stackable incentives, it can often be less than what the incumbent was going to be to replace anyway. So we stack up very well against air source heat pumps and natural gas peakers and whatnot. And it's case by case. You have to do that evaluation. And truly, we don't expect people to say, hey, I want to pay extra for being green or sustainable. No one knows what that is.
1:33:02They do understand I'm saving operationally and there's a return on investment. And these things are really robust, right? They're not just flood proof and fire resistant because they're literally underground and capped, but they have a life expectancy of 75 to 100 years. So I sound like a used car salesman sometimes when you give that pitch, but there's a lot that lends itself to really suggesting these things should be the kind of the shape of where buildings are going in the next five to 10 years. Our thanks to Mike Richter, president of Bright Core Energy. Mike, a three-time NHL All-Star and a 1994 Stanley Cup champ with the New York Rangers.
1:33:38He joined me alongside Bloomberg News energy reporter Will Wade. Our thanks to Emily Grafeo for joining me there as well while Carol was out. And that wraps up the weekend edition of Bloomberg Business Week from Bloomberg Radio. Thanks so much for joining us. Be sure to tune into Bloomberg Business Week daily, Monday through Friday, starting at 2 p.m. Wall Street time on Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg Radio, and on Sirius XM channel 121. And you can listen to us on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, free in the Apple App Store or on Google Play. You can also watch our daily broadcast on YouTube. Just search Bloomberg Podcasts.
1:34:12And we're simulcast on Bloomberg Originals, available at Bloomberg.com slash Originals, and streaming platforms like Roku, Amazon Fire TV, Samsung TV Plus, and more. Find our Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast at Bloomberg.com, Apple, or wherever you get your podcasts. And the latest edition of the magazine is available on newsstands now at Bloomberg.com and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
1:34:35Carol Massar:This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
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