Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - July 17th, 2026

0:00Carol Massar:As a top-performing advisor, you demand top-performing funds. That's why Fidelity's 1 ,000 experienced research professionals combine deep insights and advanced analytics to deliver consistent outcomes for clients across market cycles. Explore 300-plus Morningstar-rated 4 - and 5-star funds at i.fidelity.com slash top funds. Across all fund share classes of Fidelity, Fidelity Advisor Shares, and Fidelity ETFs as of 6-15-2026, past performance is no guarantee of future results. So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need.

0:40Carol Massar:Now, a global workforce of 300 ,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94 % of common questions. Not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM. Amazon Health AI presents Painful Thoughts. I, um, I can't stop scratching my downtown. Yeah, but I'm not itching to go downtown and tell a receptionist I'm here to talk about my downtown. Some things you'd rather type than say out loud. There's no question too embarrassing for Amazon Health AI. Chat your symptoms and get virtual care 24-7.

1:26Carol Massar:Healthcare just got less painful.

1:32Carol Massar:Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, with Carol Masser and Tim Stenevek on Bloomberg Radio. Hi, everyone. Welcome to the Bloomberg Business Week weekend podcast, a high-stakes week both globally and up on Capitol Hill. In the Middle East, first of all, the fragile June ceasefire between the United States and Iran hit a major roadblock following a heavy new wave of U.S.

2:17Carol Massar:airstrikes on Iran. The strikes are part of a bombing campaign that President Donald Trump says will continue until Iran stops attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz. and agrees to open the waterway. A developing story big time as we wrapped up. We should point out there were strikes kind of going on all around the region. It was just not working out as everyone expected. And oh, got to also mention all the big Wall Street banks reported earnings. And let's just say there were lots of superlatives when it came to many of the results. For the latest on that and the ongoing U.S. war in Iran, head over to the Bloomberg and to Bloomberg.com.

2:53Carol Massar:Also a focus this past week, newish Fed chair Kevin Warsh making a highly anticipated debut on Capitol Hill. He faced tough questions from lawmakers when it came to inflation, monetary policy, the economic impact of AI and more. Meanwhile, on Wall Street, chip stocks had quite a week riding a roller coaster of sharp sell-offs followed by a strong tech rebound. Ups and downs roller coaster, I think, is the right way to describe it. It is. And this hour, we keep an eye on those chips plus chocolate and Barbie. It's all in the 10 stocks to watch this quarter, thanks to our Bloomberg Intelligence team, who have identified the most interesting companies from their group of what they call high-confidence focus ideas.

3:33Carol Massar:We reveal the names and why, for better or for worse, they bear watching. Then we turn our attention to the rapidly expanding world of prediction markets. We sit down with Udesh Jha. He's the chief risk officer over at Kalshi on the company's latest tool that plots the future price of computing power. Plus, as the summer heat continues to break records, we address a hotly debated question in the modern corporate world. Is it ever okay to show some leg in the office? We're talking about, I feel like, mostly for guys here. I'm wearing shorts right now. I know you are. I guess that's the answer. Women can kind of get away with lots of things of showing legs regularly.

4:08Carol Massar:But I don't know. With guys in shorts, I guess it's a whole other thing. Bloomberg Pursuits editor-at-large Chris Rauser says, yes, it's okay to show a little leg for men. He'll explain a little later on. All that to come, we begin with the 10 companies to watch this quarter. Our Bloomberg Intelligence team has identified interesting companies from its roster of high-confidence focus ideas. It spans sectors and regions. Each scenario outlines a catalyst in the next few months that supports their case. Some of the companies highlight high stakes in semiconductor chips, the pricing power of global chocolate, and the next chapter for Barbie.

4:41Carol Massar:Helping us break it all down is Tim Craighead, Bloomberg Intelligence Global Chief Content Officer. He joined me alongside Bloomberg News credit reporter Emily Grafeo. So these companies are all part of a broader group of ideas that we have on an ongoing basis, an actively managed group of ideas we call focus ideas. You can find them on the terminal, by the way, with BI Focus. But the crux of these is that they're high conviction fundamental views, either positive or cautious from the analysts across the globe. They span all sectors. And they're differentiated from what the market seems to be discounting.

5:28Carol Massar:And high conviction differentiated. The third leg of this is there's catalysts ahead that we think will change the market's mentality. And with this group of 10, it is whittled way down. These are 10 across the globe, positive and negative, across sectors that we think have particularly notable catalysts coming up in the third quarter. So it's not the be-all and end-all, but it's certainly a high-profile topical list of 10 companies to watch. Okay, well, we have to start with Microsoft. That's the largest company on the list here. By far. The market getting wrong about Microsoft. And I love how the story is laid out because you have a picture, you have a data sheet, and then you also have a trigger, which is a note about what could trigger any movement.

6:19But I'll let you explain it.

6:20Carol Massar:Yeah, so the crux of the idea with Microsoft is that the market seems to have put Microsoft in the bucket of broad software that could be disrupted by AI. You know, there's that theme of the SaaSpocalypse where AI is going to take over everything that's software. It seems to be forgetting that Microsoft is one of the large hyperscalers. It has, through its ongoing work, arguably the leading cloud platform for large language models. And they also have a new Microsoft 360 Office suite that's coming out in the second half. We think revenue is set to surprise on the upside. And the market seems to be discounting quite the opposite.

7:14Carol Massar:I get it. I feel like we've been talking about Microsoft and watching it a lot. So I can see why you guys included that in the list. Where shall we go next? What's a name that maybe either surprised you or you think maybe, I don't know, that you find of interest? Well, I think one way to think about this, you know, the last couple of times we've had conversations, there's been AI related ideas. We've talked about some of the big chip companies before. We've talked about other hyperscalers. But we're always looking for the undiscovered AI place or the second derivative, if you will. And there's two on the list this time that I think fit that bill.

7:54Carol Massar:One is a UK company called Halma, which falls in the industrial category. They do a lot of health and safety equipment. But they've got a business embedded in their divisions that makes photonics. Botonics are an optical device that essentially helps replace copper into data center infrastructure to reduce legacy, increase bandwidth, speed, etc. And it's a big business. It's ramping aggressively. They are the supplier for one of the big hyperscalers. And we don't think that it's baked in to what the market thinks. Second one is Telecom Malaysia. You think about Asia building out AI, a lot of the data center build out has been in Singapore.

8:50Carol Massar:They're running out of space. It is space constrained. More and more data center build out is moving across the channel into southern Malaysia. And Telecom Malaysia is the digital infrastructure provider. So they're providing fiber backhaul and other services that will allow this data center build out. So two interesting sort of second derivatives plays on the AI theme. And what about SolarEdge? I know that's a company on the list where the outlook was a cloud. Again, to those just listening, this list, the outlook is either a cloud or a sun. Sorry, SolarEdge has a sun. Is that not, does AI not play into that thesis?

9:35Wouldn't they get a boost from energy demands?

9:38Carol Massar:It does and it doesn't. It does in that there is no doubt that solar and other renewable energy sources are going to play into data center energy demand. And there's a great story to be told along those lines. That said, the real reason why we're focused on SolarEdge at this point is actually the European business. and that's not so much an AI-driven issue, it's energy security. We've been through the story of Russia invading Ukraine and disrupting the gas supply. We've now been through the story of the Middle East conflict disrupting gas supply. Europe has been twice bitten and is thinking very actively about how to do more in terms of driving energy security.

10:35Carol Massar:Solar is one of those elements. And SolarEdge has seen its European business, which is about 30 % of revenue, accelerate. And we think that has further legs, long legs. Yeah, you know, it's interesting. I feel like Craig keep having these conversations coming off the US war in Iran, that there are countries, whether it's China, as we are talking about in other places, that don't want to be so vulnerable when it comes to global energy supplies, like brought to their need. And China in particular, I think, is certainly looking at that. This is a stock, though, that's been on a tear up almost 100 % year to date, although about 18 % of the float is short.

11:14Carol Massar:So you get a little bit of feel in terms of what the street is thinking. I got to go to Mattel. We talked Barbie. Let's go there. They were on fire and then they weren't. Well, enough is enough, right? Right. So, sorry. No. Had to throw that in at some time. We love it. So, Mattel, you know, has a big business in the doll business. It's a big chunk of that is Barbie. And it did get a big boost by the Barbie movie back a couple years ago. But the toy business has been moving, at least from our analysts' perspective, more towards building sets and in particular trading cards. more recently. The sort of focus is off of the dolls.

12:03Carol Massar:And with that in mind, we think that they're set for further disappointment in terms of expected revenue growth. It's really as simple as that. It's a product cycle sort of story. And the product cycle is right now not in their favor. All right. You got to finish up with what? What's the matter? I just feel bad for Barbie. Maybe they could have her build something, like Barbie the Builder. Maybe she could build data centers, like an AI player or something. Sorry, Carol, go ahead. I know. I don't know. That's lame. But hey, Barbie can do anything. We know that. I got to end up with chocolate. Got about a minute left here.

12:42Carol Massar:Not a name that I'm that familiar with, but I love me some good dark chocolate. So Barry Calibut is a European cocoa producer and so they source cocoa, they process it, they sell it to the big chocolate makers, Nestle and others. A couple of things have been going on in the chocolate business. Number one, after cocoa spiked over the course of the last couple of years because of harvest issues, weather, what have you. chocolate makers have been actually reducing the content of chocolate of cocoa in their chocolate which is a negative on a structural basis for berry caliber we don't think is fully understood you layer on top of that el nino which is increasingly looking to be more severe and that could disrupt supply which increases the cost of cocoa beans which causes a cost squeeze for They're very calibrated.

13:39Carol Massar:And you end up, therefore, with a volume pressure, a cost pressure, and they're kind of stuck in the middle. We think that disappointment is ahead. All right. That makes sense. So it's not very sweet on that one, but you can get a chocolate bar. That was Tim Craighead, Bloomberg Intelligence Global Chief Content Officer. Check out the full list online at Bloomberg.com slash businessweek and on the Bloomberg Terminal. Our thanks, too, to Emily Grafeo, Bloomberg News credit reporter. She filled in while I was away. Still ahead on Bloomberg Businessweek, we know about trading AI tech stocks, but how about trading the computing power behind them?

14:14Carol Massar:CalShe ramps up its effort to build markets for just that. We check in with its chief risk officer next. This is Bloomberg.

14:26Carol Massar:Advisors, the best way to outperform client expectations is to choose funds and ETFs that outperform the market. Fidelity helps power long-term growth in client portfolios with 300 plus Morningstar rated four and five star funds, including active ETFs. Discover what sets Fidelity apart when it comes to performance at i.fidelity.com slash top funds. Across all fund share classes of Fidelity, Fidelity advisor shares and Fidelity ETFs as of 6-15-2026. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Ask yourself, what are your best people spending their time on right now? Expense reports, receipt chasing, month-end close that takes weeks.

15:04Carol Massar:You become what you spend on, and that's not what you're building toward. Brex is the intelligent finance platform that eliminates that work before it starts. AI agents that handle the manual stuff automatically, so your team can spend their time on what actually compounds. It's time to get Brex AF. Learn more at brex.com slash AF. Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze. Bahamar, located in Nassau, Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels. The richly refined Rosewood, the playfully hip SLS, and the stylishly modern Grand Hyatt.

15:44Carol Massar:With over 45 restaurants, bars, and lounges, Bahamar serves up delicious dining from world-renowned chefs like Daniel Bouloud and Marcus Samuelson. nightlife venues like the new John Batiste Jazz Club and the Caribbean's most luxurious casino. At Baja Mar, you'll find every pleasure under the sun and one-of-a-kind experiences for the entire family like Baja Bay, our 15-acre lush tropical water park, interactive wildlife experiences, including our daily flamingo parade, world-class golf, tennis, spa, and so much more. Visit BajaMar.com today and discover a vacation destination where memories are made for a lifetime.

16:22Carol Massar:Bahamar. Life spectacular. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app or watch us live on YouTube. So remember back in May, I don't know if you remember this, it was at the Milken Institute, their global conference in Beverly Hills. If you weren't watching our show, if you don't remember this. Because it was on. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said global demand for computing power is so huge that traders will one day be able to bet on a futures market for it.

16:59Carol Massar:Here's a refresher in case you missed it or forgot about it. The United States has short power. We're short compute. We're short chips. And there are going to be shortages in all three. And memory, four things. I actually believe a new asset class will be buying futures of compute. We just don't have enough compute power right now. And that was BlackRock's Larry Fink at Milken back in May. While Larry's prediction might just be coming true, Calci has created a tool that plots the future price of computing power, joining the ranks of exchange and index operators attempting to build markets around the commodity powering artificial intelligence.

17:37Carol Massar:Joining us now with more in a Bloomberg exclusive, Udesh Jha, Chief Risk Officer of the prediction market Calci, joining us from London. also with us, Bloomberg News finance reporter, Kat Doherty here in the studio. Udish, you were just appointed to this position coming from the derivatives marketplace CME group. You spent 16 years at CME. You posted on LinkedIn that you started paying attention to Kalashii back in 2024 during the elections. What struck you then and why at the end of the post you say, I've never felt this energized in a long time. What struck you about this company? I think I, as you said, I've been at CME.

18:12I was at CME for 16 years. I joined CME at the onset of the Dodd-Frank post-clearing mandates. And now, looking ahead 16 years, I think I see the same excitement in the financial industry with prediction markets, with the migration to tokens, with cloud adoption. And from that standpoint, I think Calci, at the center of a lot of that innovation, is a really exciting place. And I'm super excited to be joining at this part of the journey with them. So, Udesh, many people know Kalshi for event contracts, betting on the likelihood of, let's say, a FIFA game and who's going to be the World Cup winner.

18:53Carol Massar:You've launched a number of new products outside of event contracts. Can you talk about some of the recent initiatives and why you're moving away from or adding to event contracts? Yeah, that's a great question. I think as we have seen, event contracts are, or prediction markets are, becoming quite mainstream. For a few reasons. One is the predictive power that they provide, the very specific questions that they ask, which help the institutions, retail and other participants manage risk. And today we are at Calci, we have about a very large set of institutional and direct retail participants who are able to do so.

19:34And with that in mind, we have seen a fairly large growth in some of the very important asset classes such as crypto, such as KPI markets. And now I'm excited to talk today about the compute market, which is GPU related, that we are excited to also bring in to the marketplace for risk management and other needs.

19:57Carol Massar:And we want to dig into this. Just two quick questions. Is BlackRock involved? Right now, at this point in time, this is something that we have done organically. We do have pricing information that comes from one of our partner vendors that's available on our website. But we do expect large institutions to take advantage of this innovation by looking at the forward curves and use it to price deals, to do OTC contracts, to do other sorts of derivatives for their purposes. And I know it's early. Are people calling you already? because they're interested in terms of various institutions or institutional investors?

20:34Yes, we are. We are getting a lot of inbounds because we are filling a void in this marketplace, which was very important. If you're Bloomberg, for example, is very big in the swaps market, as you know, for pricing interest rate swaps or any other derivative or any other deal that depends, forward curve is very important. It is extremely valuable for anybody doing a five-year swap or a two-year swap to know what would be the rate on a particular index out there. And that's precisely what we have done. We know that eventually this market is going to become quite large. Some estimates of the total addressable market size are in trillions.

21:18If you look at the amount of funding committed by the hyperscalers, they are north of 500 to 600 billion just for 2026. And if you look at multiples beyond that, what this market could be, it's a very large market. So we are getting a lot of inbound, but we do want to start first with a natural requirement, which is to bring price discovery in the marketplace so that it can be used for hedging, trading and other purposes down the line.

21:49Carol Massar:So CME Group said back in May that it would launch computing power futures linked to an index compiled by silicon data intercontinental exchange it owns the new york stock exchange and i'm reading right from from cat's article here teaming up with the financial infrastructure firm oran to add futures contracts for computing power why are you better positioned to build this tool than they are i think i would start by saying that by by by such cme and eyes and others uh it actually lends a lot of credence to the marketplace to the demand for this but that's it in addition to what Larry Fink said earlier.

22:22But prediction markets are unique for a few reasons. One, the compute or the GPU market is not standardized at this point in time. There are many different factors that play into that index. It could be locations, the chips, the different kinds of chips, the grades, the different uses. So rather than focusing on a particular index or a particular contract, the prediction market allows us to list several of these contracts, which is what we have done. And the prediction market also ensures very robust price discovery at much lower levels of total open interest that we have seen through many of other contracts.

23:01So this is where it is very uniquely positioned to bring in a more accurate price discovery than focusing on one or two different grades of the marketplace and do a traditional future.

23:16Carol Massar:So eventually, you're mentioning an issue that has been raised in terms of this is a nascent asset class. It is a market that is evolving. We have a number of exchanges, as Tim mentions, that have gotten into the compute market and trying to develop it. Why is this price discovery that you're talking about, do you find it to be a more accurate indicator of where compute prices are at this moment? And then with this forward curve where they are indicated at a future point in time? Yeah, I think one of the unique aspects of our price discovery that it's market driven. There are some forward curves out there, but they are derived not out of market inputs, but through either OTC deals or other bilateral contracts.

24:03But ours is a true market driven. And that is where the power of the wisdom of the crowd of the marketplace. And the accuracy that comes out of it comes to full form. And that's why it's unique and the first in its category.