Buffett Says He’s ‘Going Quiet,’ Picking Up Donation Pace

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2:53Can I drive? Yeah, sure, why not? Let's get behind the wheel. We'll go driving. Do I look like I drive a minivan? Shut up and drive. Don't drive angry. Don't drive angry. If you're going my way, I want to drive it all night long. I'll drive. Shut up. This is the drive to the close. If you had access to a car like this, would you take it back right away? On Bloomberg Radio. All right, everybody, we've got just about 18, 19 minutes to go until we wrap up the trade on this Monday. As you know, we've got stocks bouncing around, but really holding on to their best levels of the session, bouncing, meaning they're way off their lows today, up 1.6 percent on the S &P 500, 2.25 percent higher on the NASDAQ 100.

3:42So the risk on trade is certainly out there in a big way. Let's get to our Eric Weiner. He's Bloomberg News Senior Editor, Equities Americas, joining us right here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. As Bill Baloney was leaving and we're listening to Alexis and we're all talking and Tim, I think you leaned over to Eric. You know, it's the end of an era in terms of Warren Buffett, right? Talking at his annual shareholder meetings. We all look to him every year. And really, in moments of crisis, he was the voice that really investors wanted to hear from. Absolutely. He also was a sort of a voice of reason on Wall Street.

4:19So he would be one who would point out that things had gotten a little bit far out over their skis. He would be the one to say that it was time to step back in. You know, they called him the Oracle, and there was a good reason for that. You know, just we're not going to see something like that again for a very long time, if ever. Remember that 2008 op-ed in The New York Times? Buy American IM. Yep. This was at the depths of the financial crisis. Everybody's freaking out. He writes, I've been buying American stocks. Why? A simple rule, be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.

4:57I feel like I hear that repeated all the time now. It's so easy to say it is so hard to do. And it's not that simple in the sense that what he saw, the way that he hedged himself, he was a very heavy user of derivatives. Nobody really ever points that out. He would always hedge himself. He was just really, really savvy with what he could see in terms of demand and what he could see in terms of the permanence of the American consumer. that he could tell that there was, like he was in front of newspapers when that was the only way to do advertising. He was in front of Coca-Cola whenever it was saying, yeah, that's not gonna be the thing to buy.

5:44And he's like, yeah, but people just like a Coke. You know, it's those kinds of really, really simple - Like Peter Lynch, right? I need to understand the company. And then bring that in with very, very sophisticated positioning within his portfolio. and you don't see that kind of thing anymore. Yeah. Is there somebody out there that you think, I mean, I think about how much we listen to what Jamie Dimon has to say. And I do feel like he is the lone remaining big bank CEO that was there during the great financial crisis. All the others are no longer in that top spot. So he has definitely seen a lot and has really created a bank that I think people turn to and respect very highly.

6:26Buffett believed in Jamie Dyer. Yeah, he did. I remember I interviewed him. And they appeared together, like, often. Yeah. I remember when I interviewed him for my first book, and he had left Citigroup and was debating going to Bank One. We actually talked about this. Yeah. And I just had a feeling that he was a guy who a bank could use. He was already eyeing how to put things together. he's just a really really savvy individual in terms of the way finances work the Buffett was different in that he he managed portfolios like you know he really put his money where his mouth is Diamond understands an industry Buffett understood industries and that's unique so I guess the question I have is like there's not look he's he's still with us no yeah this is not We're talking about this because we've been seeing the transition slowly happening and putting people in charge to continue Berkshire Hathaway for the next 50, 100 years.

7:26He's expected to end his role of CEO to successor Greg Abel at the end of the year. But it doesn't matter. There's no you know, when people listen to Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, who passed away just in the last couple of years at the annual shareholder meeting, there was those were like events where that people would flock to from around the world. I don't see anyone else having that same draw. No, no. And it's also because they spoke about macro issues. They spoke about the world around them. And they addressed issues that affected you, whether or not you were investing. So it was like, you know, the Woodstock of capitalism, they called it.

8:05But it's unlike a normal shareholder meeting where they're talking about their business, they're talking about the company. He was talking about the world. And Berkshire was a part of the world. The biggest, the most amazing thing about him was that he was a real portfolio manager. If you look at him from the 60s, the return is insane. And then he built a conglomerate and ran that successfully, too. I mean, who can really do that? That's just not in the cards right now for what's available to you in this economy. I also think, you know, when you think about something like Graham and Dodd, like he was, their method, the, you know, value investing, I mean, that was the foundation for Warren Buffett.

8:44And, you know, we talk about value a lot, but he really did it and did it well. And it's again, it's the courage of the convictions. Like he could spot what was he felt was undervalued and then pile into it and be right. You know, one one thing that we love doing is talking to CEOs of companies that are owned by Berkshire Hathaway. Dan Sheridan was on with us just a few weeks ago ahead of the New York City Marathon. He's the CEO of Brooks Running. If you missed the conversation, check it out on our podcast feed. But he made the comment to us that he doesn't get micromanaged by Berkshire Hathaway executives.

9:16That was the whole point. He just does his thing. He bought managements that he believed in and then gave them the room to do what they were going to do. It's such a bizarre level of confidence where we take confidence as intervening, as stepping in. I know better. what he knew was he could spot a good company and good management and then give them the money that they needed to succeed and get out of the way and that that is like the most admirable level of confidence that you can have and someone who invested yes in publicly held companies but private companies whether it sees candies or whether it's brooks i mean there were so many duracell charter brokerage benjamin moore yeah and bought at the lows and bought at the low like Like, it would get, would see these brands when they were discounted and go after them.

10:06My favorite is cease candy. I know. Every time I'm in an airport, I'm like, you gotta get those, the nuts, you know, the nuts and the chewy ones. Yeah. I really love them. Hey, just got about a minute to go, just quickly. The trade today, it's obviously risk on. I don't know, but does it feel like it has conviction? Well, I mean, it makes sense in that if you were worried about airplanes getting off the ground and you were worried about, like, things being, you know, crushed to a halt. by the shutdown, that appears to be ending. However, the risks in front of us are the Fed and what they're going to do.

10:39I mean, earnings look great, but like where the economy is going to go, where jobs are, those questions aren't answered. But today you should be buying, like if you sold last week on the chaos, today you step back in. Yeah, exactly, right? And you definitely are seeing investors doing that. Eric, thank you so much. We can go anywhere with Eric. I know. I love it. Like the perspective on Buffett. Very cool stuff. Eric Weiner, Bloomberg News Senior Editor, Equities Americas. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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14:17is resuming deliberations on its deal with centrist Democrats, but has yet scheduling a vote for final passage, although I'm hearing some talk that it could happen maybe later this evening. OK, well, be tuned to that. Senate lawmakers also still must wind its way through potentially time consuming procedures. And then the House members must travel back to Washington to vote for the first time since September 19th. That's a little bit of schoolhouse rock. Yeah. Is that? Yeah. But you can leave, I guess, when the government shuts down and still get paid. But Yeah. Okay. Okay, Carol Master. Go ahead.

14:49All to you. All right. Let's see what the co-founder and director of economic policy at Veda Partners has to say. She is Henrietta Tres, certainly a friend to us all here at Bloomberg. She joins us from New Orleans. Henrietta, glad you could join us. We talked to you. The surveillance team does a lot in terms of what's going in and around the Beltway. So is this real progress? Is it a political win? And if so, for whom? Yeah, we definitely have progress overnight. Very excited about it. I'm optimistic that they will be able to get the House vote done as early as tomorrow. I think there's no better Veterans Day gift to give to our veterans than making sure that the military are paid and all the 700 ,000 furloughed workers can get their paychecks and some back pay as well.

15:31So hopeful that that starts moving forward. For investors, the most important thing is that we're open by Friday, so we might start to get some VLS data from September. I think that that's possible. Staff's still getting briefed, but that's my expectation. And fingers crossed we're there. Do you think this is a solution? Yes. I mean, I think that we've got the final package. We're going to have opportunities to keep having these ACA subsidy fights into December. And then we know that there's a January 30th CR. So we'll have the same exact fight all over again. Some of my smartest clients are saying, you know, what are the odds of a continued, you know, know, round after round of government shutdowns.

16:06And I think that if you look at what the two sides are taking away here, the Democrats are mad that they caved and the Republicans and in particular, President Trump, have suffered quite a lot just on their own personal approval ratings. So it's kind of like playing chicken with a crazy person. You know, they're happy to see what happens. And that's that's what we walked into this day. You know, does it does it seem like Democrats gave in on this? They're not getting what they wanted. Yeah, to the far left, that's definitely how they view it. They wanted the actual ACA subsidies extended. You can see why for voters over the age of 60, your ACA premiums are going up nine hundred and nineteen dollars.

16:48It's pretty substantial. The average one for people in their 20s, 30s, 40s is almost two hundred dollars. So these are very real benefits for I think it's 42 million Americans. So definitely something that Democrats wanted to see delivered. But the good news for them is that they got the fight back on the front burner. And when you were standing at a low 30 percent approval rating, you really don't have much further to drop. So the Democrats getting engaged in this fight and pushing back against what has otherwise been, you know, 10 months of Trump running the board is not all bad. On the Republican side for President Trump, his disapproval rating has doubled since October.

17:24So there's a lot of reason to think that even though the ACA subsidies didn't get extended, Democrats fought the right fight. I think that that's what Schumer and Jeffrey's. You know, as we watch the political fights that go on in Washington and have for a long time, no matter who's in the White House, at least over the last few administrations, I think it's safe to say, Henrietta, what really struck us all. And I want to go back to those SNAP benefits that one in eight Americans need food assistance. Why is that? What does that say about lawmakers, Republicans and Democrats through several White Houses and the job that they have not been doing for the bulk of Americans.

17:59I mean, aren't we the world's largest and richest nation? Yeah, we sure are. And I think it's important to note that 70 percent of those recipients have full time jobs. So it's not like these people aren't working. A disproportionate number of them are young people and also old people over the age of 60 or 65. But, you know, if you really want to get into the nitty gritty, why are people 70 percent of these recipients on food stamps if they have full time jobs? What is their pay? I think there's some really interesting conversation that always comes up when we talk about SNAP benefits of what are these giant corporations, Walmart, Target, Dollar General, et cetera, what are they paying their employees that they still also need to have food stamps?

18:38So it's really everyone to blame here on this front. Why is this, though, not something that gets pushed further in Congress with lawmakers? Well, especially in a year like this one where they're focused on cutting federal spending. I mean, and you look at the one big, beautiful bill, there were repeated instances of cutting food stamps back, limiting eligibility, all in the name of saving money, which is interesting, given that it was a three and a half trillion dollar deficit increasing bill. And they eliminated the current policy baseline, which forces Congress to pay for things going forward.

19:16So the decisions around trimming federal spending are very proactive. They're on purpose. And that was across Medicaid and SNAP in the one big, beautiful bill. So I don't I don't know that this is necessarily seen as a problem to see the limitations. It's part of making the government smaller, which is what Trump and the Republican conference are trying to do. Let me throw on top of this and forgive me, I don't have the details right in front of us. But we were talking about this in the news and that the president is now proposing giving Americans a two thousand dollar check. Like, how do we do that?

19:43I don't understand. We talk about deficit. And if the economy is doing well, why do we have to do that? Secretary Besson said it could come in the form of tax cuts. OK. But the president said today that any extra would go down to pay the debt. And that's exactly the problem. There is no extra. So the trade deficit, the tariffs is my bread and butter. And I would just say the following. When we did the CARES Act under President Trump's first term at the height of the pandemic, we sent out rebate checks. The president was very happy to send those checks out. They were very popular. They cost$292 billion.

20:14dollars. The tariffs have thus far this year for IEPA brought in eighty nine billion dollars. So if you're going to increase the the rebate check from fourteen hundred bucks to two thousand dollars and, you know, the presumably there'll be a qualifying child credit of five hundred bucks, something along those lines, you now have to spend four hundred billion dollars of the eighty nine billion dollars in revenue that you brought in from tariffs. And why are you sending the rebate checks in the first place? Is it because costs of goods are increased? Is it because of the tariffs, it sure enough is.

20:46So you have this really circular logic that's a huge problem, and there is no leftover revenue to reduce the deficit, which is, of course, what bond markets are so focused on. Hey, Henrietta, just last question on health care and whether or not Republicans come to the negotiating table in good faith when it comes to the Affordable Care Act later on. That's what Democrats want to see. Does that can get kicked down the road to January? And do they meet? I've gotten that question a lot this afternoon from clients. I think, yes, When I speak with Republican staff, they say that it's going to take two or three weeks to hammer out any kind of an agreement on income cap levels, on the Hyde Amendments related to abortion, on the phase in and the duration of any ACA subsidies.

21:26I think it's a bridge too far to ask this extremely acrimonious Congress to come together in the 12 legislative days they have before the end of the year to get a solution. I think it's much more realistic that they need a deadline. And so January 30th, that January time horizon is probably going to be more intense around the ECU subsidies getting extended or not. All right. So, Love, thank you so much. Henrietta, co-founder and director of economic policy at Veda Partners. Henrietta Trays joining us from New Orleans. All right. That's the latest, Tim, on the U.S. government shutdown. And expectations that we're nearing an end has definitely put the risk on trade on Wall Street.

22:02Yeah. Traders rushing to the riskiest corners of the market. stocks climbing alongside Bitcoin as the U.S. Senate advanced a planned and the longest ever government shutdown also removed significant economic headwind. Bonds etched lower. We've got a great guest back with us. Ali McCartney is Managing Director of Wealth Management and Private Wealth Advisor with Alignment Partners at UBS. She's got more than a billion dollars in assets under management. She joins us here in the Bloomberg Businessweek studio. The risk on trade today, sustainable? I mean, it seems like we're seeing the riskiest corners of the market get a bid?

22:34We've seen a lot of back and forth in this kind of trade. So last week was the worst week for the Nasdaq since April, since we began the tariff tantrum. So what happened last week, I think, was a combination of a lull in earnings news. First of all, we had gotten all the good earnings news out and then everybody waits till NVIDIA. We also had the end of October, which is a fiscal end for a lot of funds. There was a lot of purging and taking profits. And then for whatever reason, the sentiment in data was really unpleasant last week. And people chose investors, small and large, retail investors chose not to show up, which has been the bid that's been getting the market through.

23:15And they chose to focus on things that given what you just talked about are not particularly surprising, like the lowest consumer sentiment out of you, Michigan, ever. Right. So I think, you know, when I look at everything that you talk about and I love the way that you talk about it on this show, because it's from an economic perspective, but also from a social and human perspective, clearly what's happening is the low end consumer is getting squeezed. Things are much more expensive. There are probably many of those people who are on SNAP benefits, who haven't gotten paychecks in a long time, and they're having a real hard time.

23:54And they see in that Michigan sentiment number more hard times. Whereas you look at the 5 % or 10 % that now spends 50 % to 60%, and what are we seeing? Markets are at all-time highs. AI is increasing the productivity of our jobs and our labor. we see interest rates going low. So we can probably have more of a tailwind and more of an ability to borrow. But that same movement in interest rates doesn't give the general population access to a housing market. So we really are like a tail of two cities right now. Right. Right. I mean, that's the other thing about access to lending. Who really gets it ultimately?

24:33Right. And I thought it was striking what Henrietta said, that 70 percent of the SNAP recipients have full time jobs. That shocked me. I was not. I was very surprised to hear that. That's not the narrative that I think we push on on Wall Street or from a government perspective. We've got one of our reporters on shortly, Mark Niquette. They've got a story out on the Bloomberg. It's Trump's economy now, and Americans don't seem to love it. And they get into how the U.S. economy alley is so increasingly dependent on three narrow interconnected A-pillars, affluent consumers, artificial intelligence field investment, and asset price gains, making it less stable if any of these pillars weakens.

25:11Those are kind of the three pillars of the market run up. They absolutely are. It is not hugely atypical of sort of the end of a bull market or a boom cycle. And the question that everybody's asking now is not if but when, right? These are called cycles for a reason. Portfolios are built the way they are to have things that go down when other things go up. You're not supposed to have gold rally 65 % while stocks are up 28 % while bonds are sort of mildly up. So we are in a very strange period where something will have to give. The question is when and will it be on the federal side? Will it be on the AI side?