Chevron Lines Up 11 Ships as Venezuela’s Dark Fleet Vanishes

19:03Carol Massar:We famously had the Coinbase CEO knowing that people are watching what he says on the earning cost. So he was crashing the market. So that's where I want to bring in Lydia, because when you're in a world, Lydia Bayoud, where there is one person in control, like a CEO of a company, like Elon Musk, if the number of tweets that he sends between a certain period of time, that's a bet on polymarket right now or a prediction on polymarket that one can make. What is the slippery slope that opens when one person is in control of the outcome here? So that's something that I think regulators and policymakers are really grappling with, particularly I think the Maduro example that we highlight in the story has really made that so salient for everyone.

19:48Carol Massar:Right now, generally, federal rules prohibit federal employees from trading on non-public information for their own financial game. I think Representative Richie Torres is planning to introduce legislation, if he hasn't already this week, that would very clearly prohibit that type of trading on prediction markets. But really, we're kind of facing a different regime compared to how I think a lot of people think about insider trading that is regulated in equities markets or markets It's overseen by the Securities and Exchange Commission because, you know, if you're in the derivative space and you are an energy producer, an agriculture producer, you're expected to trade on knowing, you know, my crop's really great this year or we're pumping so much oil and gas out of out of the ground.

20:34Carol Massar:You know, I'm able to hedge my position and sort of let my knowledge that I have inform both me and the market. You know, there's kind of a market utility argument that is made in those traditional markets. And we're seeing that, again, sort of these blurred lines shift into prediction markets and people sort of grappling like, OK, well, what's OK insider information? Like what benefits everyone to have insiders trading and kind of, you know, as they like to say, drawing on the wisdom of the crowd and doing price improvement. But so not exactly, you know, machines, right? Right. Well, that is the big debate about how are you going to draw that line about, you know, if you are Elon Musk in your there are mention markets and what you might say during your, you know, not to pick on Elon, anyone, any executive.

21:22Carol Massar:Right. You're going to, you know, there are mention markets and what you might say in your quarterly call. Do you swing a market just for funsies? Do you swing it knowing that, you know, your buddy's buddy's buddy might have some money riding on the line? And then how does anyone catch that? Should they be catching it? There's so many open policy questions that are being asked, I think, around Washington right now because of these markets. Yeah, there's an interesting, you know, I'm just going through Kalshi. You could spend, I know both of you did this, like you can spend hours going through this.

21:51But like, does it really serve the market, Danitsa, to ask if Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey be married before January 1st, 2027? That's important stuff, Ted.

21:59Carol Massar:It is important stuff. We had a lot of Bloomberg headlines on this as well. But it is important. So what a lot of those prediction microbelievers says, we're going to bring a lot of people through sports. So, for example, Kaoshi has 90 percent of their volumes very often coming from sports. So it's pretty hard to make the argument that this is a truth machine at the moment. But what some people hope and believe is that eventually some of those casino elements, some of those betting elements will bring people who want to bet on things like economic data. things like maybe people want to hedge. Like the hedging scenario is something that has come up a lot.

22:37Carol Massar:Talking to people, it seems like it's not coming anytime soon, but people are saying, oh, maybe I want to hedge the weather in Florida. Maybe I have a house and I can buy insurance. Well, I don't understand that. They keep going on topic and I'm trying to take them off topic. Like here's another one, for example. What will Rachel Maddow say during Jimmy Kimmel Live? Right. Okay. That's a classic mention mark. Epstein, corrupt slash corruption, ICE, Russia, Ukraine, affordable, affordability, health care. All right. But there's serious stuff like the Fed decision in January. Yes. And I find that actually helpful for what we do.

23:08And we talked about this during elections and different things.

23:11Carol Massar:For sure. Elections have proven to be one pretty good. Help me understand, though. And, well, you know, Lydia, come on back in here. One of the things I'm curious about is, like, who is checking who is making these trades? Is Kalshi or is Polymarket, are they actually checking, especially when it could be potentially insider trading? Do they know exactly who's making these trades? Are they doing due diligence? So these exchanges are structured as self-regulatory organizations. So they're supposed to kind of self-monitor, monitor trades and root out any potential for market manipulation. Again, the sort of where you draw the line between what's okay and what's not okay on insider trading, that's a judgment call.

23:52Carol Massar:I think, except in all of the most clear-cut instances. But, you know, exchanges can self-report information to the CFTC. The CFTC can look into it. Again, it operates differently than the Securities Exchange Commission. What's the bandwidth for regulators to want to take this on? The CFTC is chronically underfunded. They have, I think, roughly 500 staff. the SEC has four or five times, maybe ten times that number, not quite, but they are understaffed for the task at hand and there are more applicants. I mean we I think we mentioned in the story that there's a lot of interest driven heavily by sports trading but also in the economics, also in other spaces and so they're kind of underwater in terms of all that there is to do for market demand for this space.

24:49Carol Massar:So I think a lot of people are wondering what the CFTC will do. But if we look at the new chairman, Michael Selig, when he was an attorney in private practice, he wrote a comment letter that was pushing back during the Biden administration on any effort to rein in sports prediction markets, for example, or really most prediction markets. So I think you've got someone who's very, you know, he said he's going to defer to the courts on how the courts might eventually rule on this topic, but at least when he was an attorney representing clients, he was very much in favor of them. Before we let you guys go, Danitza, if we think about the universe of prediction markets, Robinhood's getting into it, Kalshi and Polymarket are the big ones, and they count, I think, a Trump as advisors to both of those.

25:32Yeah. Are these all regulated the same way, or is one regulated differently than the others?

25:39Carol Massar:So also, obviously, they have the Trump as advisor, and Trump Media is looking into launching a prediction market. And a lot of the sports betting companies are looking to also get into prediction market. The way, so Kaoshi so far is obviously under the CFTC. Polymarket is just entering the US. They have this beta test, so they're only onboarding some users. So currently most of the bets on Polymarket are actually in this weird regulatory space where a lot of them are coming from abroad and isn't necessarily regulated. Under the CFTC, we've seen very different decisions for example uh there was a market uh connected with the united care ceo killing and cftc asked how she to remove that market but polymarket who is not under that jurisdiction actually kept the market so you can see there are very different uh outcomes depending on the regulation will a human land on mars before california starts a high-speed rail 19 chance costs 20 cents for yes 85 cents for now well what counts as the high-speed rail I don't know.

26:42Carol Massar:I'm just reading here. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

27:10Carol Massar:thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business, IBM. For many men, mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll. Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships, and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down, often without clear warning signs. In season three of The Visibility Gap. Dr. Guy Winch and his guests explore how these pressures show up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support.

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28:34Carol Massar:Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube. David Royal is Chief Financial and Investment Officer over at Thriven. The firm has close to$200 billion in AUM, probably more as of now. That's a number from a little over a year ago, David. What did you think of what we heard from Mike McGlone just now? I mean, is this what happens in a late-stage bull market? Yeah, I think so, and I was amused. Absolutely. You know, I've never gotten more questions about gold and silver from clients, and I regularly meet with clients and our advisors.

29:11I think it's fears of currency debasement. So the retail clients are really interested in metals right now. And the question I always ask in response when I get a question about gold is what problem are you trying to solve with gold or silver? If you're worried about currency debasement, you could have a diversified portfolio of commodity stocks. There are probably better ways to deal with inflation or currency risk than just owning gold or silver. But silver is behaving like high beta gold right now. And it does feel very technical.

29:36Carol Massar:That currency debasement, the dollar mostly, or current? I think it's both. I mean, we have dollar weakness early in the year, dollar strength later in the year. I think it's general concerns about the deficit and the federal budget. That's so interesting. I mean, I go back to this idea of you hearing from clients more about metals than ever before. Is that indicative of something within the markets right now? I mean, you mentioned that currency debasement is a concern of theirs, but is there something else happening too? You think like this is sort of a YOLO buy everything rally? Or beyond the concerns about the debasement?

30:12I think it's less YOLO and more, it's a very bifurcated economy. A lot of concerns, a political turmoil. People are just very concerned right now. Consumer confidence is very weak despite the economy being pretty strong.

30:27Carol Massar:You know, I've got to tell you how many people have come around this table and said, well, wait a minute, you know, the stock market's hitting records, the wealthier consumer, which is so important in terms of consumer spending, doing just fine. I agree with you, that lower rung of the K-shape. I'm concerned. Tim's concerned. You sound concerned. I mean, we all should be concerned, right? Because that's a big part of certainly America. So I just do wonder, and I wonder when people care more broadly and when it does really matter in terms of the overall economic health of this country. Yeah, you know, I certainly get a lot more questions about metals than crypto these days.

31:06And I would say it was the reverse maybe 12 months ago. There's a lot less interest in crypto, probably because Bitcoin's been weaker recently, and it seems to have shifted. But I think there's just sort of a generalized concern. And that's, again, why I say, what problem are you trying to solve? I mean, metals and even crypto have probably a place in a diversified portfolio. But again, what role does that have in your overall portfolio? Talk about the interest or lack thereof that you're seeing in crypto right now. I mean, do you actually, at Thriven, is it a part of a recommendation that you have for clients' portfolios?

31:37We don't broadly. I mean, they have access to it through brokerage. Clients could buy crypto ETFs. Are they doing that? And I'm sure some do. It's not part of our centrally managed portfolios that I oversee. What more so is, like more traditional? More traditional, Scott. If somebody wants alternative exposure, what are the alternatives that you recommend? So we would look at potentially metals, REITs, and things like that. Within our mixed asset products, our asset allocation funds, we actually have an allocation to private equity within our daily liquidity mutual funds. It's a small allocation, but we actually do give retail clients$50 a month.

32:15You can get access to private equity at Thrive. That's a pretty cool thing.

32:18Carol Massar:Yeah, where are flows going at this point? Where are investors either asking you to commit or where are you guys recommending? Where's money going into, money coming out? You know, we're seeing strong flows into our managed accounts. There's still a lot of interest in equities. Overall, across the industry, you're seeing strong fixed income flows, as we have in recent years. Continuing to see that. Continuing to see that, yeah. Right, because it was an interesting year in where you saw both stocks and bonds do well, right? Which is not typical. It always makes me a little nervous and cautious.

32:46You know, one other observation on flows is, you know, across the industry, money market assets have, you know, roughly doubled from$4 trillion four years ago to$8 trillion. Our own money market fund has quadrupled over the last three years. But rates are coming down. Rates are coming down. So where does that money go? I keep telling clients, you've got to be extending duration right now. Lock in these attractive yields. Okay, so where's the right place for a client to put money that's been in a money market? They want access to it, but they also want yield that's higher than 4%. Where can they go?

33:14You know, what I've been recommending lately in taxable accounts is munis. I knew you were going to say that. Of course, he threw me that. No, I love munis right now. They're not quite as attractively priced. But what's the right way for an investor, like a retail investor, to buy munis, especially if they live in a high-tax state? I'd buy an actively managed municipal bond fund. Because you do need, I think, active management in that space. You know, we offer two, we have a core muni bond fund and we have a high yield muni fund. So I often recommend clients split their assets between a regular muni and a high yield.

33:42How high yield are we talking about? You can get about four and a half, which on a tax equivalent basis is tax free and about four, a little less than four. That's very attractive because, you know, if you look at corporate bonds, you know, you're going to get about five-ish percent, a little five and a half. And you're paying taxes on that. So, you know, to get a similar tax equivalent yield of, you know, seven, seven and a half, you'd be well into the high yield space. But this is what happens, Carol, in a rate environment where rates are coming down.

34:07Carol Massar:Yeah, exactly. We'll see whether it continues. I mean, what are your expectations in terms of rates and how that impacts kind of the investment environment? So I think it's going to be interesting this year. You know, we're pricing in, you know, I think it was last I looked, of course, on my Bloomberg terminal, about a 16 % chance of a January rate cut. Markets not expecting that. But we are seeing some pretty significant employment weakness. And January is probably off the table. But I wouldn't be surprised if we see a couple of cuts in the first half of the year. Of course, we're going to have a new Fed chair announced fairly soon.

34:37So that May meeting is starting to look like we'll get a cut. But I think, you know, the average rolling three month jobs added was 20 ,000. And even if you back out the 100 ,000 or so government jobs that were lost, it's only 50 ,000 over the last three months. Powell in 2024 at Jackson Hole said any further weakening in the labor market would be unwelcome. And they were averaging 120 ,000 a month back then. and actually 170 before revisions based on the information you have. But do we have to look at that comment in the context of a low or no illegal immigration world? Like, do we have to completely reset what a healthy number looks like in an environment where immigration has to stop?

35:16The reason I think we're seeing some increased weakness is really other indicators. So over the last three months, we've had 900 ,000 people move to part-time employment for economic reasons. They would like a full-time job. That's gone from about$4.5 million to almost$5.5 million in the last three months. That's the sign of a weakening labor market. And wage growth last month was almost zero. So what does that look like for that group of individuals you talked about? Is that people who want a full-time job, but maybe they're doing gig work instead? Yeah. This is what Danielle DiMartino Booth talks to us about.

35:47Carol Massar:Yeah. She's concerned about the weakness. She's talked about this over the summer. I'm not listening because I've been thinking about the stocks. I'm sorry. No, I'm really sorry. I'm so sorry to interrupt you, Carol. What were you thinking about? Well, I was looking at the notes, and David, the stocks that you like, Shark Ninja, Build-A-Bear. I mean, these are not names we talk about. Carol talks a lot about Build-A-Bear. So I'll give you, Boot Barn's in there, too. We love Boot Barn. I don't know if that was on my list. So I'll give you the theme that we like within, and we focus a lot on the consumer.

36:15Carol Massar:I do listen to most things you guys say. They're fun. Or what Tiff says. But anyway, yeah. So the theme is, we talked a little bit about the K-shaped economy. The upper-end consumer is doing better than the lower-end consumer. Yeah. But the upper-end consumer is still looking for value. So, you know, you get a trade down, like Shark Ninja competes with other firms like a Dyson, but at a little lower price point. The other thing we want is companies with product niches or innovation that can drive sales and that aren't relying on macro tailwinds. Because, as I said, we're seeing some economic weakness.

36:44So you want companies that can drive growth through product innovation and not just relying on the macro environment.

36:49Carol Massar:You prefer small cap, mid cap space? You know, I like small cap. I mean, small caps are relatively inexpensive now. They're also behaving differently over the past year. So on days when we've had some economic weakness, where small caps, normally you expect small caps to rally. I think second quarter of 2021, you're coming out of a bottom and rip roaring economy. That's when you expect small caps to outperform. They've been doing well on days of economic weakness where rates come down. I think small caps are behaving much more rate sensitive than they used to. So I think with the Fed cutting, and I think you're going to get a couple of cuts this year, I think that could really benefit small caps.

37:22They're more leveraged than large caps and they tend to borrow short. David Royal, great to see you. Great to see you. Thanks for stopping by. Thanks for having me. Chief Financial and Investment Officer over at Thrivent. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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38:25In Season 3 of The Visibility Gap, Dr. Guy Winch and his guests explore how these pressures show up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support. Listen to the new season of The Visibility Gap, a podcast presented by Cigna Healthcare.

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39:25Carol Massar:Or watch us live on YouTube. It's our weekly Women, Money, and Power segment. We speak with some of the most influential women from across the business world. We welcome back Christina Lee, Managing Director and Co-Portfolio Manager for U.S. Private Debt Strategy at Oak Tree Capital Management. She joins us here in the studio. Happy New Year. How are you? Thank you. Well, thank you so much for having me back on. I think 2026 is a new year. And I think, as you can tell from the public markets, there's enthusiasm. I think from the private side, there's enthusiasm as well. What's the enthusiasm that you're seeing?

39:53Carol Massar:I think it's about M &A demand. You know, 2024. So when we were sitting back in 2024, thinking about 2025, everyone said, with the new administration coming in, M &A is going to have a boom year in 2025. That didn't really happen, right? The first nine months, M &A stalled, predominantly because there was so much uncertainty, for example, around tariffs, etc. But now I think where we're seeing that enthusiasm is, especially on the private equity side, is private equity has held on to their investments for too long now. They need exits. They need to provide distributions back to the limited partners.

40:27Carol Massar:So we are seeing a backlog of deals to hit for 2026, which should help. But are they good deals? If the backlog is that they need to return money to clients, they need to exit, Like having to, you know, force sales is never a good thing. I think from a credit perspective, they're good deals. And why I say that is I think there has been a bit of a mismatch between buyers and sellers in terms of price. What we've seen is those that will sell for 12 times, 15 times, 18 times sell. Doesn't necessarily mean a business that's going to sell for 10 to 11 times is a bad business from a credit perspective.

41:01Carol Massar:And that's why I think for private credit, seeing that increased demand should be a benefit to the industry. Because in Q4, what we saw was heightened competition because there was a supply-demand imbalance. A lot more private debt, dry powder, versus M &A deals. Even if you looked at public markets in 2025, the majority of the volume was actually repricings and refinancings. There was very little new issues last year. So this is our year. So of new issues. Exactly. Big deal. So how much dry powder, though, is out there? Like, how much needs to be worked off still? Yeah, if you look at dry powder in private credit versus private equity, everyone's like, wow, there's so much dry powder in private credit.

41:40Carol Massar:There's still a lot in private equity, too. There's multiples. And so that's why we think, one, not only is there dry powder for private equity, a lot of that dry powder is aging. They need to deploy it. These are closed-end funds. They have a certain set investment period. Right. So they're going to be also looking to more deploy as well. And there's going to be more companies out there for them to buy. Is there a specific type of company that you're seeing that's going to be doing this out there? Yeah, I think what we've seen so far is thematically those that can only get very high purchase price multiples.

42:12Carol Massar:And what do I mean by that? So it's not necessarily a certain industry? It's not a certain industry. I think certain industries have benefited, for example, from very high public valuations. For example, everyone talks about AI. Everyone talks about data center. We saw a good number of deals come out in the market for M &A last year around data centers, around AI, because they were going for such expansive multiples. We saw less what I call kind of nuts and bolts industrial businesses. They're not bad businesses. They're just not going to go for 15, 18 times. So I think people reserved and held on to their deals, maybe to do some add-ons, build some growth in to then sell it for this year.

42:46Carol Massar:So how much of the activity that you think will go on is the result of just pent up, couldn't do anything for so long versus, wait, it's a good environment. It's indicative of a good business environment, deal environment, economic environment. I think it's a combination. It's probably 50-50. And the reason I say that is, if you think about it, have we had a normal year in terms of M &A? What is normal? Normal year, right? Wasn't 2025, was it? Wasn't 2025. really wasn't 24. In normal year, I mean, like a steady pace where expectations were met. Really hasn't in a couple of years we had supply chain issues, right?

43:23I think we're just done with normal. Right? Post-2020, yeah. Like, that's it.

43:28Carol Massar:Normal is done in general, right? Yeah, totally. You know, so we haven't had, quote unquote, that normal M &A year. And so if you think about the pent-up demand, it just wasn't 2025. It's been since 2020, really 2022, when there was a break in the public markets. Remember, first half of 2022, You saw the public markets break. Even the private markets started to break. So it's been multiple years. And I think that's having this pent-up demand grow. And then second, we have a falling rate environment. It's better to get debt capital, right? That's beneficial for these companies. And the economy, granted, there's cracks in it, but it's still holding up.

44:04Carol Massar:So what if that doesn't continue, though? I think that's one of the big questions. I mean, we're seeing investors a little bit enthusiastic as we await a bunch of economic data this week and hopefully for some more clues about what the Fed's going to do this year. But I feel like people keep pulling back their expectations about Fed easings because there are inflationary concerns. If we don't get a lot more in the way of rate cuts, I mean, what do we need to do to kind of keep the market as you describe it now? Yeah, I think. Or the level of activity. Yeah, I think the economy has to hold up. I think one of the things that will spook investors and I think will spook the M &A market is any type of downturn.

44:40Carol Massar:We haven't had a real downturn since 2009. It's kind of amazing. COVID was too short. There's this massive bounce back after COVID. But a lot of people got scared then. Yeah. A lot of people in the markets got scared. A lot of people sold. But that didn't count in your view. I don't think that counted because I think what was happening in 2020 was COVID was quote unquote short lived. I think you saw kind of March through September really M &A dry up. But then as things started to normalize and there was so much dry powder again to support that M &A market, 2021 was like a banner year. Back half of 2020, 2021 is a banner year for M &A and private credit.

45:18What's the relationship between your world and equity market performance?

45:22Carol Massar:Yeah, I think part of it is on the valuation side, right? And spurring M &A. The better the equity markets are doing, that supports higher purchase price multiples for the private markets as well, which spurs, therefore, M &A deal flow. which helps us because that's a big driver of demand. When there's not enough deals in the market, what happens with private credit is you have a lot more competition. What does that mean? Decreased spreads, increased leverage. Yeah, you need to see it all kind of flow through here. Your new fund that you guys launched in October, the Oak Tree Direct Lending Evergreen Fund, institutional clients completed your first close with about$2.35 billion in committed capital.

46:00Carol Massar:How much of that has been lent out, deployed at this point? Yeah, I think just thinking about that product in general, when you think about an evergreen fund, it's kind of a newer product and direct lending and you're raising money every quarter. It's an open-end fund. And so from a deployment standpoint, right, you're always going to be looking to deploy. And one of the things that we found is a growth factor in private credit are these newer types of vehicles. If you think about direct lending, it has been always kind of closed-end funds. I think LPs are asking for evergreen funds. They want someplace to get income, to be diversified, and a safe pair of hands, and consistently deployed.

46:41Carol Massar:And that's what Evergreen and, frankly, Oak Tree provides. Well, good stuff. We were so looking forward to catching up with you. Happy New Year. Good to see you again. Happy New Year as well. Thanks for having me. We'll see you soon. Christina Lee, Managing Director, Co-Portfolio Manager for U.S. Private Debt over at Oak Tree Capital. This is the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast. Available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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