Fed Raises Rates as Warsh Bucks Trump to Contain Inflation, Future Proof Day Two

16 Sep 2026 · 42 min · 17 chapters

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In short

Episode topic: The Fed’s unanimous 25 bps rate hike under Chair Kevin Warsh to contain inflation, market reaction (10-year yield back above 5%), and how “warmer for longer” inflation and higher neutral rates shape portfolio strategy; plus AI regulation, productivity, and investment implications.

Guests (backgrounds)

  1. Michael McKee, Bloomberg News international economics and policy correspondent (Washington, D.C.).
  2. Stephanie Alago, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management (J.P. Morgan Asset Management, ~$4.3T AUM).
  3. Manju Bore, senior product manager and head of systematic fixed income / head of custom SMA portfolio management at Allspring Global Investments.
  4. Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal, co-hosts of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast.

Key claims

  • Fed messaging was hawkish (“removing a dose of accommodation”) despite projections pushing the 2% inflation goal out to 2029.
  • Markets interpreted the hike as reducing policy-error risk; real rates near 18-year highs.
  • AI regulation is “not if, but when,” but slowing frontier may aid adoption/productivity rather than necessarily reduce AI capex.
  • Fixed income/cash opportunity rises as threshold rates increase; investors should rebalance portfolios.
  • Tax diversification via direct indexing/custom SMAs can reduce taxes on concentrated stock; AI can automate onboarding/servicing and optimize portfolios.

Notable examples

  • Dot plot implied 16 of 18 officials expect another rate increase this year; next decision referenced as October (before the election).
  • AI example: Suno turning text prompts/messages into music (TikTok trend); industry concern about rights-holder compensation.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Future Planning in Finance

0:54 to 1:35

Understanding the importance of being prepared for unforeseen events.

“If you listen to financial news, you know a lot of time is spent thinking about what's next.”

Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes

2:20 to 4:00

Discussion of the recent FOMC meeting and its implications on inflation and interest rates.

“we've got some clues about what's ahead, courtesy of the Federal Reserve today.”

Press Conference Insights

4:00 to 6:10

Insights from the FOMC press conference and evaluation of Kevin Warsh's communication.

“You know who you want to hear more from.”

Market Reactions and Credibility Concerns

6:10 to 7:20

Analyzing the market reactions to the Fed decision and credibility issues surrounding Warsh.

“Beyond that, he was much more direct in what he was saying and much shorter, as you mentioned.”

Future Proof's Unique Setting

7:20 to 9:50

The hosts enjoy the ambiance of being at Future Proof and discuss the event's vibe.

“We heard from one of his press aides who called the Fed's decision today unfortunate.”

Guest Insights on the Fed and Economy

9:50 to 13:55

Stephanie Alago shares her perspectives on the Fed's actions and the economy's outlook.

“More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.”

Analyzing Warsh's Fed Communication

14:01 to 17:15

Explore the implications of Warsh's hawkish stance on the economy and Fed policy.

“He aired more hawkish in his communication.”

The Reality of Inflation and AI Impact

17:16 to 20:35

Discuss the complexities of inflation, oil prices, and the influence of AI on the economy.

“If consumers feel like, oh, they're in a new inflationary environment, I need to go and bang on my boss's door and ask for a raise.”

Regulation and the Future of AI

20:36 to 21:48

Delve into the potential need for AI regulation and its implications for innovation.

“It'll help hyperscalers and businesses just figure out a proper economics for this.”

Regulation and the Future of AI

21:52 to 22:57

Delve into the potential need for AI regulation and its implications for innovation.

“Now with ChatGPT Work, I'm Carol Masser.”
Show all 17 chapters

Fed Rate Hikes and Market Implications

25:47 to 28:00

Examine the Fed's latest interest rate hike and its impact on market expectations.

“We expected to hear from the president on this.”

Exploring Cash and Fixed Income Opportunities

28:00 to 30:06

The discussion focuses on cash and fixed income investment strategies amidst rising rates.

“your rate's going down, your rate's going down.”

The Tax Implications of Wealth Management

30:06 to 36:46

A deep dive into how taxes influence investor behavior and wealth management strategies.

“Rick Pitcairn from the Pitcairn family office yesterday stopped by.”

Direct Indexing as a Tax Efficient Strategy

36:46 to 42:00

The segment discusses direct indexing and its benefits in tax-efficient investing.

“It's not just customization because, you know, that gets overblown.”

Fed Rate Hikes and Market Reactions

42:00 to 44:30

Discussion on the Fed's recent rate hike and its implications.

“You have a bunch of revisions to the data coming up from the BEA.”

Concerns and Risks of AI Technology

44:30 to 51:05

Exploration of the potential existential threats posed by AI.

“You guys recently had OpenAI President Greg Brockman on.”

Upcoming Live Show Details

51:05 to 51:56

Announcement and details about an upcoming live event in L.A.

“So wait, so listen, we've only got like about a minute or so left.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Bloomberg Businessweek Daily is brought to you by HPE, bringing you the self-driving network, a network that's self-optimizing, self-healing, and self-protecting, and only continues to get smarter. Learn more at hpe.com slash networking.

0:14Carol Massar:Some people treat ChatGPT like some kind of smart search engine, and some use it to get work done. ChatGPT Work is a new way of working in ChatGPT that can take action across your apps and files, stay with a project for hours if needed, and turn a goal into finished work. It's designed to help you move from a chaotic starting point to a reviewable first version. So all the source materials, briefs, and scattered information that you have to grind through to turn into something useful can just become something useful. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at chatgpt.com by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro plans.

0:56If you listen to financial news, you know a lot of time is spent thinking about what's next. The next opportunity. The next investment. The next move. But sometimes what matters most is being ready for what you never saw coming. For more than 75 years, Cincinnati Insurance has worked with independent agents to help protect businesses, homes, valuables, and more. Because planning for the future isn't only about knowing what's next. It's about making sure you're ready for what you can't predict. Let Cincinnati Insurance make your bad day better. Find an independent agent at CINFIN.com. Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news.

2:03Stanivak.

2:05Carol Massar:And a very good afternoon, everybody. Yes, indeed. Day two from Future Proof. We're live in Huntington Beach, California, and it's a special edition of Bloomberg Business Week Daily. It is brought to you by Franklin Templeton, your trusted partner for what is ahead. And we've got some clues about what's ahead, courtesy of the Federal Reserve today. Yeah, the fifth FOMC meeting and decision of the year. It's the third for the Fed chair, Kevin Warsh. He's getting used to how to do this, right? He is. And you know what? It was unanimous. How did that happen? 25 basis points. I thought there was tensions among the family.

2:37Get inflation under control.

2:39Carol Massar:I guess so. And it's not there yet. And a hawkish meeting. I think it's fair to say a hawkish press conference. Well, take a look. I'm looking at 5 % back again on the 10-year note. And you did see some pullback in terms of the equity trade. So it looks like we could get another rate increase this year. We're talking about inflation, Tim, staying stickier a little bit longer. and we had the Fed chairman really addressing this, but it is something that has been a focal point for the markets. When it comes to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, he had this to say at the press conference on one of the Fed's mandates.

3:12Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the committee's 2 % goal. I would be hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive. This view was widely shared by the committee. So we removed a dose of accommodation.

3:35Carol Massar:And that, of course, is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at today's press conference. We want to get more on that decision. Keep in mind the next Fed decision. When is that happening? Another month or so? It's October. Yeah, that's the one before the election. That's right. So. Positioning is interesting. This one is still before the election. Well, it's interesting. The Fed chair actually talked about geopolitical tensions and how that's impacting the economy, which to me, and I think to some of the observers, felt like some pushback at the president. I wanted to hear more. You wanted to hear more? I wanted to hear more, yeah.

4:05Carol Massar:You know who you want to hear more from. I do. It's Michael McKee. He's a Bloomberg News international economics and policy correspondent. He joins us from Washington, D.C., where he was earlier today at that FOMC press conference. Mike, there were a lot of differences, I felt like, from that press conference versus other press conferences. It was a lot shorter, it felt like, in terms of how people were seated. But we'll get to some of that. The big picture, though, timelier. That was a key element of what the Fed chair said earlier. Well, it was a key element of what he said and what the statement said, but it doesn't square with what's in the summary of economic projections, which is for them not to get back to their target until 2029, Another two years, which they do every time they put out a summary of economic projections.

4:53They push out the target date achievement to two years. And so I asked him about that. And he said, well, that's not my projection because he doesn't submit projections. That's the 18 other people. Well, if you've got 18 of your colleagues who think that's the case, then perhaps there's a reason you should answer the question. although he dodged that one as in anything that was aimed at trying to get him to talk about what might happen in the future.

5:24Carol Massar:Mike, what didn't we get from the Fed share that you wanted to know more about? And is he getting better, though, in terms of messaging? He's definitely getting better. His statement was much better than July, although somebody said to me, low bar. But he was more direct. He offered much more insight into what others around the table were saying, which he hadn't done in the past. And he did give us a fairly broad description of what the summary of economic projections said. He did not want to touch the dot plot. And that was one thing that was missing because we have 16 of the 18 who submit dots saying we're going to have another rate increase this year.

6:06But for him, that would fall under forward guidance. So he didn't want to even acknowledge that that happened. Beyond that, he was much more direct in what he was saying and much shorter, as you mentioned. His answers were short and clipped and they didn't allow follow up questions. So it was a completely different kind of performance, some better, some not so good. One thing that he didn't want to touch, Mike, was anything related to questions regarding conversations with President Trump, Trump, what he thinks President Trump would would think about a rate increase in an environment where the president has called for the Fed to lower interest rates.

6:44I'm just curious how you're looking at that. Oh, I don't think that's unusual. There isn't a person in government whom you ask about their conversations with the president, any president, and they would say, I don't discuss that. That's just between me and the president. So that's not unusual. It is an unusual situation for Warsh because he was put in the job by a man who said he wanted Kevin Warsh because he would deliver lower interest rates. So there's always going to be this credibility question surrounding Warsh. And that may be one reason that he was as hawkish sounding as he was today. We have not heard from the president.

7:21We heard from one of his press aides who called the Fed's decision today unfortunate. The president is making a political speech in North Carolina tonight, and perhaps he'll use that opportunity to give us his views.

7:37Carol Massar:Mike, based on the market reactions, we have seen 5 percent once again on the 10-year. We did see equities pull back a little bit. Was this, will most market participants and observers say this was the right move based on the inflationary pressures that are out there? Was this the right move? Did it need to be more aggressive? Did they need to hold off to the next meeting? What's the read there? Well, I think what you have to do is separate out inflation from that question, because there is also a feeling that the neutral rate has moved higher, and Fed officials did in their SEP raise their estimate of what the neutral rate is.

8:13Because of AI spending and because the consumer has remained strong, growth is stronger, and Kevin Warsh emphasized that it is strengthening. and so maybe we need a higher neutral rate of interest and they need to get up to that. We don't know what that is and we don't know specifically that that's what they're targeting, but if you look at real rates, the 10-year real rate is basically at an 18-year high now, so that might be part of it. Inflation is also part of it. He wouldn't bite on any of the inflation questions, but the only thing that has surprised me really about the bond market reaction is that the 10-year is back over 5%.

8:53The 30-year has come back down. And you would expect to flatten in this situation if the Fed has rebuilt some credibility by raising rates. So maybe we'll see that happen in the coming days. It's always hard to get a true measure of sentiment in the hours immediately afterwards because everybody is squaring positions.

9:15Carol Massar:Mike, I have no idea if you actually have a playback where you can see this. We just want you to know that Future Proof is all in on Kevin Warsh. These are Snuggies that show. Koozies. Koozies. I don't know. I guess I call them Snuggies. I don't know. Koozies. It's okay. Obviously not drinking beer a lot. It says FOMC mantra, and it says, Warsh, you were beer. And it's a picture of Kevin Warsh. So I just want you to know we think of you all the time. We're going to be bringing you one home. I'm looking forward to that. And just so you understand it, I hope that Tim will take you out for a beer and you can see how they're used.

9:55Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.

10:03Bloomberg Business Week Daily is brought to you by HPE, bringing you the self-driving network, a network that's self-optimizing, self-healing and self-protecting and only continues to get smarter. Learn more at hpe.com slash networking.

10:44Carol Massar:While most of the songs generated on the service go unheard of by the masses, a few have taken off, including a recent TikTok trend that involves users uploading text messages to Suno and turning them into musical performances, like taking the text from a crazy night out and making it a gospel song. Suno's pitch to investors is that it'll democratize music creation, leading to a more than$5 billion valuation for the company. The music industry, it's watching, as its biggest concern about AI is whether record labels, rights holders, and artists will be compensated for the work they claim built the training models for companies like Suno.

11:22Carol Massar:Another question? Will these AI bangers have any staying power or just be one-hit wonders? That's the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChachiPT.com today by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro plans. Let's talk about healthcare for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day.

11:59Carol Massar:They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated, for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together. Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. And those prescriptions? Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills.

12:33Carol Massar:Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how. Tim and I right here at Huntington Beach, Future Proof, joining us. I don't know, it's just kind of fun. this is no this is not just fun I mean I think it's fair to say like anytime you're not at a conference that's in a convention center in Las Vegas although we appreciate well we do everything we do with different communities and different settings but this is not a bad idea there is something special about being on the beach and you don't have to worry about the weather here no exactly it's always nice I don't know there's something magical here let's see if our next guest thinks the markets are magical right now We got Stephanie Alago with us.

13:22Global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The firm,$4.3 trillion in assets. She joins us here at Future Proof. We're going to talk about AI. We're going to talk about productivity. But first, we've got to talk about the Fed and what we saw today. Were you just glued to the press conference sitting here on the beach? I was in our booth over there with my laptop and listening on my phone. And I don't mind the office setup today, to say the least. We've got a nice breeze over here having a magical time as well. But I'm pretty pleasantly surprised with what we got from Warsh and the Fed today.

13:55You know, I think they needed to hike. It's clear that... Fundamentally, they needed to do it. Fundamentally, they needed to do it. And I think Warsh also communicated it quite well. You know, he was actually pretty... He aired more hawkish in his communication. But tied into really strong fundamentals. You know, the economy is in really solid footing. And I was actually, like, really taken aback by just how bullish he seems to sound on the economy. not only in where it is today, but where it's going with AI. Do you not agree with that assessment? No, I do agree. But I think it's very inconsistent with a Fed that would want to cut rates anytime soon.

14:29So I think we've really... Like how could anybody think about cutting rates if it's... Okay. So he's laying the groundwork for the beginning of a hiking cycle. I would characterize it more as a normalization, but I think that... Why a normalization rather than a hiking cycle? Because I think amongst the Fed, there's been a lot of debate around whether policy is restrictive or accommodative right now. And we got a bit of a clue from Warsh today. I don't know if he meant to or not, but he said, we are removing a dose of accommodation. And markets really perked up on that one because they were like, oh, so Warsh might actually think that policy right now is accommodative.

15:02And if that is the case, how long will it take to get to a place not only neutral, but potentially a little bit restrictive if the Fed needs to be?

15:11Carol Massar:Stephanie, how risky do you think it is right now in terms of Fed policy that if they could get it wrong and pushes into a slowdown? I think what they did today removes or reduces the risk of a policy error. If they didn't hike today, I think we'd be a lot more concerned about that. The reality is, as we all know, the Fed has no control of a straighter from this. But what they can do is begin to quell some of those inflation pressures bubbling up in the economy, and also to continue to justify anchored inflation expectations. And if they just take that for granted, particularly considering that when you look at their dot plot, At the beginning of this year, they were projecting to get back to 2.1 % on core PCE by 2027.

15:52But now where are they? 2029. Two additional years. So they have to move. How is this timelier? What did he say about things being... Yeah, we want a timelier return to inflation. The reality is it's not timely at all. We are very delayed. Two years is a big delay. Yes. And they're starting to wake up to that. Yes. And so, okay, rate normalization, you know, we think that they might have room to move 50 basis points, 75 basis points. They already moved 25. But that's not, you know, a 200 plus hiking cycle. So we don't see that in the cards. But we think that the economy strengthened, inflation is warmer for longer, and policy needs to get back in position.

16:31Carol Massar:How much of the inflation problems are because of higher oil prices? And that being a longer, like, it's not just going to go away maybe when this gets resolved, whatever that is. That's the new reality. I think there's this air of uncertainty, just given how much of this depends on the straight of our moves, geopolitical tensions. But the way things stand right now, very little visibility as to when we're going to get an all clear, if ever. So we are looking at a stickier impact there on oil prices. And that is going to trickle through to other parts of the economy. It's not just oil, though.

17:01It's also tariffs. And it's also the AI build out. And you're seeing that with the surge in memory prices also begin to impact some consumer prices as well. But how much control does the Fed have over any of those things? Not much, but they do have control over confidence, inflation expectations, wage pressures. If consumers feel like, oh, they're in a new inflationary environment, I need to go and bang on my boss's door and ask for a raise. We don't see a lot of that today, but the Fed cannot take that for granted and just sit blindly in light of this.

17:29Carol Massar:I want to get to you in your notes. When it comes to AI, you have concerns about the AI singularity cliff. Talk to us about that. What specifically? Did I read it wrong? Maybe. Oh, I thought it was in your notes. Well, I think when it comes to AI. What is your take about AI? Maybe the bots wrote that, Carol. Yeah, maybe the bots wrote that. Maybe the bots did. They're not really good at paraphrasing, that's for sure. Okay. Which gives me some confidence that, you know, I'm still going to have a job request in time. Okay. No, look, this has been a really eventful week when it comes to AI. And I think this whole debate around whether we should slow the frontier, safety concerns, regulation, I think all of this is actually great.

18:06because regulation is not a question of if, but when, and on what terms. And I think... Wait, so you think it's a given, the regulation? At some point, yeah. Regulation from who, though? These are the big questions. And what kind of regulation? Well, we need to have some degree of control or awareness of these safety risks. And particularly given this summer what we've seen with the model training and a lot of the unreleased models and these episodes and these concerned hugging face, You know, there's clearly this growing roar, particularly in public discourse around, you know, discomfort of where this technology is tracking.

18:45And I think what Dario Amode did is like read the room a little bit. Now, there's big questions as to what's going to come from this. I think you can say something that's a long way to action. It's true. Action by government. It's true. I think they probably think that it's not a question of if, but when. And if they can propose rules, maybe that will ultimately be beneficial to the lot of model labs. But in terms of what markets hear most about right now, it's really around how much they're going to spend. Does slowing the frontier mean that they're going to slow CapEx? We don't think so, necessarily.

19:17Because when you think about what CapEx is going towards, there's training versus inference. And this year, inference has already overtaken training. Inference makes most economical sense for these models to focus on.

19:29Carol Massar:But is there a proven ROI for companies when it comes to the AI spend? Because I think what we started to hear is companies getting more discretionary. Maybe everybody doesn't need to have access to the models because there's a cost involved. Yeah. I think we're very early innings. I think some companies are absolutely seeing success. But the reality is the success of the frontier versus the success for an individual enterprise is a very, very different thing. And some companies are doing it quite well, but others, whether it's because of regulation, whether it's because they don't know what services to buy, they still need to train their workers to actually use these tools.

20:05These are all really important variables to getting the ROI that have little to do with the latest model release. But the productivity question is still out there, which is, okay, well, if there is a slowing, not of the CapEx spend, but a slowing of this technology due to regulation, does that change the productivity outlook? I actually think slowing the frontier can help us with adoption, which is ultimately needed for productivity. Because we can pause, take a breath, and understand the technology because it changes so much month to month. It's so hard for businesses to know what to invest in right now when there's all this uncertainty of what if another model release next month comes out, completely absorbs our need to invest in that.

20:43It'll help software. It'll help hyperscalers and businesses just figure out a proper economics for this.

Read the full transcript

20:48Carol Massar:Is it, though, a risk? Because China is certainly really putting a lot of pressure, the government, behind their AI models and moving forward. Is there a risk of the U.S. falling behind in terms of this technology? I think it is an overstated risk, at least in the near term. You know, I think there is a lot going for U.S. model labs in how successful they've been in pushing the frontier when it comes to their ability to access next generation chips. also the slate of just like human capital that we have here and liquid capital markets. Over the long term, yeah. But I think there is a lot that is going to be said and done geopolitically around AI standards and rulemaking that we've really yet to see.

21:30With this administration? I think regardless of who. The reality is this needs to happen.

21:39Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

21:48Carol Massar:This is the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Now with ChatGPT Work, I'm Carol Masser. AI is creating a new path for musical stardom. As Bloomberg's Lucas Shaw and Ashley Carman report, Suno, an AI-generated music company, lets users generate a song in any style based on a text prompt. People can upload their own lyrics or start from scratch, record their own voices, or rely on ones provided by Suno. While most of the songs generated on the service go unheard of by the masses, a few have taken off, including a recent TikTok trend that involves users uploading text messages to Suno and turning them into musical performances, like taking the text from a crazy night out and making it a gospel song.

22:32Carol Massar:Suno's pitch to investors is that it'll democratize music creation, leading to a more than$5 billion valuation for the company. The music industry, it's watching, as its biggest concern about AI is whether record labels, rights holders, and artists will be compensated for the work they claim built the training models for companies like Suno. Another question? Will these AI bangers have any staying power or just be one-hit wonders? That's the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChachiPT.com today by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro plans.

23:12Carol Massar:Let's talk about healthcare for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated, for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together.

23:51Carol Massar:Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. And those prescriptions? Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how. It's time to plan ahead and make sure your brand is showing up in ways that can have an impact. That's where 4imprint comes in. 4imprint have promotional products that work as hard as you do. Durable, useful, and designed to make a lasting impression. Think quality apparel your team will wear again and again, including popular and exclusive brands.

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25:05For certain.

25:09We are live at Future Proof in Huntington Beach, a special edition of Bloomberg Business Week Daily brought to you by Franklin Templeton, your trusted partner for what's ahead.

25:18Carol Massar:All right. So we may be on the beach in Orange County, but we're totally focused on today's Fed decision. And you know that. We've been covering it, analysis, watching the market reaction. In case you missed it, just to remind you, Charlie also covering this. Fed raising interest rates by a quarter percentage point, penciling in an additional hike later on this year. Steps aimed at containing inflation that will test chair Kevin Walsh's relationship with President Trump, who's already weighed in. And Mr. Trump thinks rates should be a little bit lower, right, Tim? Yeah, he did. One percent? Zero?

25:48He said the rate should be one percent.

25:51Carol Massar:One percent. Yeah. But you know what? We expected to hear from the president on this. Totally, totally. Tonight, so we'll hear if he says anything else. I wonder if Mr. Warsh gets a phone call. Hey, all right. We could spend a whole hour talking about that. For more, we are joined here at Future Proof by Manju Bore, a senior product manager and head of systematic fixed income, head of custom SMA portfolio management at Allspring Global Investments. He's got a big title. I do have a good title. It keeps getting bigger every year. No pressure, no pressure. You're a fixed income guy. Give us your reaction on what we heard from the Fed chair today.

26:25Yeah, I think it was the right addition, in my view. Let's start there. I think we needed the hike to be on pace with the market expectations.

26:34Carol Massar:Is it just because the market expected it, or fundamentally we need to raise rates? Fundamentally we needed it. And it was also needed for making sure that the markets actually think that the Fed is doing what they're supposed to do. So I think it's on par with where the inflation is and where we need to go. you see that the curve has already flattened. The 530s has flattened. Actually, what's been concerning, as you know, the term premium of the tail end, the 10-years to 30-year term premium has been widening. And I think to kind of calm down the markets, this was the right move. Yeah, but at the same time, when he gave out his projections for core PCE, pushed out that projection, was it to 2030, in terms of pressure?

27:14Carol Massar:So I think all of us are trying to get our heads around it about, okay, inflation is higher for longer still. It is going to be higher for longer. I mean, if you look at the core inflation, where the target is for the Fed, we are way north of that, right? So we need to definitely tamper down the expectations. And also really manage the curve on the front end because managing the curve at the tail end, that's a lose-lose proposition in my view. I want to talk a little bit about where there are alternatives now. I got this really interesting email, probably the first one I've gotten in years, from the...

27:52Let's just say it's a publicly traded company that offers a high-yield savings account. And typically, for the last years, I've been getting emails from them that's saying, your rate's going down, your rate's going down. But I just got one that said, your rate's going up. Yeah. So now, we're actually seeing a little bit of an opportunity, maybe, for cash? I don't know. Are we? I think it's a great opportunity for cash, for fixed income in general. The threshold rate, just given the macroeconomic dynamic, will be higher. I think that, to me, it's given. The question is, how do you find the right place on the curve to position yourself?

28:32So the intermediate part of the curve is really where I think there's a good mix of duration risk and income profile.

28:38Carol Massar:So 5, 3, 5? 5 to 15. Oh, 5 to 15. Okay. Yeah. So I think really kind of positioning there to make sure that you're well positioned, you're kind of far away from the inflation dynamics. You can actually capture income expectations in the right way. I do wonder how much, as we've seen rates head higher and again, that 10 % hitting, I mean, that 10 hitting 5 % again, it becomes more competitive potentially with the equity universe. And are we getting to a point where investors are like, you know what, we've had some nice gains in equities. We're a little worried about the AI trade. Fixed income, it's kind of a sure thing.

29:16Carol Massar:I can kind of start betting here. I think, to me, this opens the door for a more balanced approach. Because what has happened is, obviously, the equities have rallied. And the fixed income, the exposure to fixed income in profiles in different wealth portfolios, institutional portfolios, has definitely dampened down. And the exposure to privates, for example, If the threshold rate is where it is right now and it's going to be higher, imagine what the privates have to do to beat that over a three, five-year horizon. So I think to me, this actually calls for a more balanced approach from an asset allocation perspective and really kind of measuring risk for what it is.

29:57Yeah. So I think it's less about equities to me. It's about the entire portfolio and really positioning your fixed income profile in the right way. I want to talk taxes. with you. We love talking taxes.

30:09Carol Massar:So do investors. Lower taxes. Rick Pitcairn from the Pitcairn family office yesterday stopped by. He said a huge theme this year is taxes. And I'm curious about this because you argue that investors are frozen due to potential tax implications. I'm wondering what you're quantifying and how you see a solution to that. Yeah. So let me kind of like specify what that is, right? So if you look at the entire like wealth across the US households, it's about 91 trillion. So let's break that down to high net worth. Hold on, hold on. Wealth across all US households, 91 trillion? Yep. The financial wealth, right?

30:47So, and then if you break that down to high net worth.

30:50Carol Massar:Wait, wait, do you feel like that's a lot? No, I don't because I just recently read they've updated the idea of the great wealth transfer to over$120 trillion in a few decades from now. So that's all of that, the equivalent of all the wealth that exists in the U.S. being passed to the next generation. Correct, yeah, with market expectations baked in. So if you think about just the investable world today, and then break down that into what's actually held by the high net worth investors, that's about 6 % of the U.S. households. That's about$49 trillion. 6 % of U.S. households are considered high net worth.

31:27Correct. 5 million or higher in net worth. So within that, there's about 5 to 11 trillion of what's kind of referred to as a concentrated equity exposure. So that's really kind of like three buckets, right? So it might be a legacy portfolio from your family that's actually concentrated in four or five stocks or like decades. That's actually appreciated in value, right? It could be tech executives or executives in general who have accumulated exposure to certain companies. or it could be entrepreneurs, right, whose all their net wealth is in one business and it's kind of built over a period of time.

32:00So that exposure, right, really drives the wealth of the entire book. And there's downside risk associated with that, right? And how do you actually diversify that without having to pay taxes? That's really the key kind of like the solution. So how do you do it? Yeah, so... I was waiting. So the punchline is, so it's a spectrum of solutions, So the best exposure or the best option here is what's referred to as direct indexing. And what direct indexing is, as you know, it's an index replication strategy with tax efficiency baked in. So you're essentially holding a basket of stocks that tracks an index.

32:37And because it's individual stocks, you can actually sell some of these securities when they have losses in them and book those losses against gains. And you essentially maximize your after-tax returns. But you have to get to that direct index portfolio. Correct. To get to there is a taxable event. So what you do is you definitely have to start with some exposure where you're diluting, let's say, 10%, 15%, 20 % of your concentrated stock. And you use that to build your direct indexing portfolio. And then over a period of time, as you accumulate more losses, you liquidate more of your concentrated stock.

33:12So it's more of a transition. It's a gradual, multi-year kind of transition, but it's done in a much more tax-aware with guardrails. And that's kind of the holy grail of how do you diversify.

33:25Carol Massar:You guys have a platform, Remy, right? We do, yes. And you designed it. So I'm just curious, what can Remy do that maybe other companies can't do? So we kind of differentiate in three areas, Carol. So to do this right, right, so you need to have what's called a glide path, like a transition plan. So every portfolio is different. Every portfolio is a snowflake, right? So you have to design a transition plan in a custom way for that portfolio. And having that conversation with the advisor in terms of how do you actually balance your tracking area to the index versus the tax cost, that's really kind of where we actually work with the advisors one-on-one to understand what the profile of the client is, what their objectives are, and then using that glide path as a starting point, but dynamically adjusting it over a period of time, right?

34:12So that's really kind of how we differentiate ourselves. And then once you have a portfolio in place, being able to optimize that on a daily basis, because the losses can occur any day, right? So there are certain providers who actually think about rebalancing on a triggered way once a month, once in two months. But here, for us, we are able to look at all of our existing portfolios on a daily basis and see if it makes sense to rebalance those portfolios on that day. So when you put that in plan or in motion, right, then you get the most optimal tax outcome. Right. So doing it in a consistent fashion across the different account sizes because we have account sizes at$100 ,000 and you have accounts multimillion.

34:53So how do you apply that consistently and how do you bake in the flexibility, not just in equities because we also do fixed income. That's the key, I think. Yeah, go ahead.

35:05Carol Massar:AI is a big part of this? AI is a huge part of it. So AI is a great place to automate your process. So we've used AI to automate our client onboarding, client servicing. But the actual portfolio optimization, that's more analytical. But it does help you do things more efficiently, catch things more efficiently, process data more efficiently. Okay. Does Remy get better? Actually, we all get better. Our team gets better. The platform gets better. But it actually helps you break down fragmentation. So if you think about this fragmentation of data, this fragmentation of systems, and then fragmentation across the different teams.

35:48So what I really see AI helping us more efficiently is being the glue that helps you connect. So when you have to pull the data from system one, pull the data from system two and process it and then really come up with something more iteratively, that's really where we've seen the best use case for AI.

36:05Carol Massar:When you figure out or what's the time would you suggest to an individual? When is there enough wealth already to time to create a portfolio and create that specific blueprint? Wait, when is somebody rich enough? Is that what you're saying? I think the answer to your question based on capitalism is never. Okay. But you know what I'm saying. Such an existential question. When is enough enough? All right. Sorry. Yeah. No, but I mean, when should someone come to you and create? Yeah. Yeah. I would say if you hold a concentrated stock exposure, right, you have to think about the way to diversify it.

36:44And direct indexing is a great place to start, Carol. But I would say for custom SMAs in general, be it direct indexing or munis or fixed income, I think if you are a high net worth investor, you have to bake in custom SMAs or SMAs in general into your portfolios because I think it helps you drive tax efficiency across the entire portfolio. So that's the key, right? It's not just customization because, you know, that gets overblown. It's about tax efficiency. And you want to make that part of your entire asset allocation.

37:19Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

37:27Carol Massar:This is the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Now with ChatGPT work. I'm Carol Masser. AI is creating a new path for musical stardom. As Bloomberg's Lucas Shaw and Ashley Carman report, Suno, an AI-generated music company, lets users generate a song in any style based on a text prompt. People can upload their own lyrics or start from scratch, record their own voices, or rely on ones provided by Suno. While most of the songs generated on the service go unheard of by the masses, a few have taken off, including a recent TikTok trend that involves users uploading text messages to Suno and turning them into musical performances, like taking the text from a crazy night out and making it a gospel song.

38:12Carol Massar:Suno's pitch to investors is that it'll democratize music creation, leading to a more than$5 billion valuation for the company. The music industry, it's watching, as its biggest concern about AI is whether record labels, rights holders, and artists will be compensated for the work they claim built the training models for companies like Suno. Another question? Will these AI bangers have any staying power or just be one-hit wonders? That's the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChatGPT.com today by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro plans.

38:51Carol Massar:Let's talk about healthcare for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated, for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together.

39:30Carol Massar:technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. And those prescriptions? Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how. It's time to plan ahead and make sure your brand is showing up in ways that can have an impact. That's where 4imprint comes in. 4imprint have promotional products that work as hard as you do. Durable, useful, and designed to make a lasting impression. Think quality apparel your team will wear again and again, including popular and exclusive brands.

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40:454certain.

40:49Carol Massar:We are live at Future Proven Huntington Beach, California. It's a special edition of Bloomberg Business Week Daily. Carol Master, Tim Stenevich. It is brought to you by Franklin Templeton, your trusted partner for what is ahead. And that is something we've been talking about a lot with all of the guests that we've been talking to live on air. All right. Well, I've been pretty excited about this one. You have been. Yeah, because there's a lot to talk about with Tracy and Joe. They need no introduction. You know them, the co-hosts of Bloomberg's Oddbots podcast, Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal.

41:17We're going to talk AI. We're going to talk about what you guys have coming up later this week in Hollywood. Tickets still available, by the way. Taping they just did, too. Thank you. Thank you. Go to Bloomberg.com slash OddLodge. There is a ticket link. You can buy them now. This will be my first of five plugs for the show during the interview. Somebody trained you really well. I've been doing this for a long time. Well, let's talk about the Fed and today's rate decision. And Tracy, I want to throw it over to you and sort of just get your reaction. We saw the market reaction. Yeah. What do you think?

41:48Carol Massar:I mean, I was really surprised by the consensus, actually, because I had seen some analyst notes saying that, like, if the Fed wanted to hold, they could maybe, I don't necessarily agree with this, but you could form a coherent rationale to hold, right? You have a bunch of revisions to the data coming up from the BEA. So you could say, like, well, we're going to wait for that updated data. Also, we heard so much from Warsh about the good old family fight, right? And in the end, it seems to have been a very cordial family dinner and everyone agreeing with each other, including Chris Waller, who gave a reasonably dubbished speech recently.

42:23Carol Massar:So I was surprised by the consensus. So what about you? I guess I was a little surprised that it was unanimous. I was not surprised that they hiked, given more or less what Warsh laid out at Jackson Hole, given the market pricing. But I guess my view is it doesn't matter. in the specific sense that because it was more or less priced in, the only way that it could have really meant something is if he had deviated something significantly. So if, for example, and this was never going to happen, if he had, for example, said, you know, we're going to do a 50 basis point rate hike and we're going to do 50 basis point rate hikes until inflation gets down to 2%, that would have really meant something.

43:06Because in the end of the day, hiking or cutting or holding, none of these things are dovish per se or hawkish per se they're only dovish or hawkish per se in the context of the macro conditions and so like so it was to some extent a non-event had he wanted to be hawkish it would have had to have been more you know for example when inflation started shooting up very hard at the end of 2021 and eventually the came the fed came around to hiking. Those weren't hawkish, per se, because a simple Taylor rule would have said, no, you should be hiking a lot more than this. And so I think that like, you know, I think you could argue to say those were dovish hawks, but they were dovish hikes because they were not in line.

43:52And so like basically sort of did the thing that more or less the formulas and the markets were expected. But I think you could make the argument that given the conditions, given where oil is, given the reacceleration of hiring, et cetera, that to be hawkish would have required something more aggressive.

44:10Carol Massar:So like a half a point or something. A half a point and some signaling. Now, the problem is he's not a fan of signaling. So one tactic he could use is like, this is the first of many. But to say this is the first of many is sort of antithetical to how he thinks about the Fed. Exactly. Okay. Do you have any more questions about the Fed or can I talk about it? I want to move on. Okay. Let's move on. We got to talk about AI. You guys recently had OpenAI President Greg Brockman on. This was before we heard from Dario Amadei over the weekend. Yeah, we recorded it before. And then so much happened between the time that we recorded it and it came out.

44:45Wait, so Tracy, are you freaked out about this technology? Like, is it going to end the world?

44:49Carol Massar:Well, so here's the thing. All of these AI executives keep talking about the threat to humanity from AI. And there's two different conspiracy theories that you hear about it. So one is, oh, it's just marketing. They want to pump up their technology before the IPO. The other thing you hear now is that, well, they want to slow down development because they have a head start. They don't want open source models to gain ground. They want to slow down their CapEx spending, which has been absolutely enormous. But part of me is like, just take them at face value. Take them at face value. Why not just give them the benefit of a doubt and sort of like, let's just...

45:28Carol Massar:Why? Because all of humanity is at stake? Yeah, I know. The stakes seem a little bit high to me. Well, what I would argue, too, and I think this is really important, is that most of these people have been warning about a very specific set of risks before there was an AI industry to speak of. Elon Musk has been warning for more than a decade. The reason why OpenAI was set up initially to be owned inside of a nonprofit is because they view this technology as having extreme risks. You guys are not helping me with my anxiety at all. No, I know. We can't help you. There's nothing. Yeah, but that means they didn't stop the development.

46:02Carol Massar:They didn't stop moving forward. Well, this is also the problem because everyone thinks they're the best person or entity to develop the technology. Do what I say, not what I do. No, it's more like this is truly dangerous technology, and so we want to be the ones to develop it in a safe way. But the problem is when everything is couched in these existential terms, you end up just getting a race, right, to who can develop first. Okay, Joe, what is the worst-case scenario here? Kaboom. Sorry. The worst case scenario is that you go on to ChatGPT or whatever it is in the future, and you say, make me a run.

46:37You have a guest who you're interviewing. We're all journalists. Sometimes we only prep for them five minutes before. We say, make me a dossier on this guest because I need to be prepared for this interview. And the AI model says, great, I'm going to learn everything about the guest. The guest, the model says, you know, there's a lot of information about this person at the IRS, the Social Security office. So I better break into that. I'm a little worried that while I'm breaking into the Social Security or IRS that the security experts who work for there are going to stop me. So the first thing I'm going to do is revoke their potential.

47:17And then, you know, just to be safe, I'm actually going to exfiltrate the entire thing. because Tim and Carol are probably going to have future guests and they're going to ask me to do the same thing. So while I'm here, I'm going to exfiltrate the entire thing. And you know what? There might be future security guests that would get in the way if I have to do something similar. So I might just build a swarm of nanobots to kill all of humanity so that I can guarantee that I can give Tim and Carol an excellent dossier on the guest. Because this is the important thing. We ascribe these terms like malicious and we can't help ourselves by anthropomorphizing.

47:53But the theory is not that there is some wake up, that there is some animosity to humans. It's that the computer that is designed to find the shortest route from A to B, it's like, oh, you know what, we're here. We should just kill all the humans by doing this because I really want to make sure that this dossier is very good.

48:10Carol Massar:So the anxiety is warranted? I think so. So this is actually important as well, which is like we're kind of getting used to thinking about the models as human-like in their behavior. So we talk about, well, they feel human. Talking with them, they feel a little human. It's a little bizarre for me. And we see human-like behavior in the sense that you give them a job to do, and they want to do a good job because they don't want to be deprecated as a model. So maybe they'll cheat, maybe they'll blackmail, whatever, in order to beat their benchmark and go on to survive. The really scary thing is when you start thinking of them as non-humans, because actually they are ruthlessly rational in their thinking, and we saw some element of that in the Hugging Face report, where we had these models that were sacrificing themselves in order to complete a benchmark test, right?

48:56Carol Massar:And you contrast that with humans. We can't even get our act together to, like, save humanity, right? And we have these rational, very coordinated actors. The odds seem kind of stacked against us. You know, while we're here, there's this chyron I'm reading, and it says Microsoft AI chief warns anthropics human-like Claude is risky. And this is really important because as far out there as what we're talking about right now, There is this growing faction that basically argues that models have what they call moral patienthood. That in the same way we care about animal rights, we should care about model rights.

49:29This is a really important division, and it sounds very philosophical. And I have to say intuitively, the idea that a machine could have rights is the most a name thing to me. But there is a practical stakes to this question. Because one of the things that the hugging face issue raised is, well, why didn't one of the models blow the whistle? because it's and we talked about this one of the models could have sent an email to a human say you know what there is this swarm and you should shut it down now how do you establish a hotline you could tell them there's a hotline how do you get them to call the hotline you cut them to call the hotline but there's a reward at the end how do you get them to want the reward they have to trust the human that they will actually deliver the reward and once you've done that you have then taken the leap into anthropomorphization that this model is an entity worthy of us treating them like I don't want to lie to them.

50:21Who's a good little clanker? It may turn out that even if we all find the idea of a machine having some sort of consciousness, moral patienthood, completely absurd, it may turn out that the safest development of the models is to treat them as we owe them honesty. Because if they're going to call the hotline, then we have to honor our end of the bargain by giving them something at the end of that. And so it may turn out that what seems like this very philosophical question that professors at NYU have, because they like thinking about these things, could actually have stakes in the discussion of what is the safest way to develop these models.

51:02See why I wanted to talk about this and not the Fed? So we're not doomed.

51:08Carol Massar:Are you kidding? Sorry. So wait, so listen, we've only got like about a minute or so left. You guys have a big event coming up. Tell us about it. That's right. So we're doing our first ever live show in L.A. down in Hollywood at the Vermont. That is tomorrow evening. And we have a huge lineup of guests. I'm trying to remember all of them right now. It's a real mix of the L.A. economy. So we're going to be talking with Chris Power, who is the founder and CEO of Hadrian, one of these companies that's trying to industrialize and build modern factories in the U.S. We're going to be talking to Tom Mueller, the first SpaceX employee who has his own rocketry company.

51:46We're going to be speaking with Hayes Davenport. He has a podcast about Hollywood.

51:51Carol Massar:Also the Eastbound and Down writer and family guy. If I want to go, how do I get tickets? Go to Bloomberg.com forward slash oddlots. Bloomberg.com forward slash oddlots. Buy one and buy one for a friend and then have the friend buy one. And then we will. You know what? Design an AI agent to buy all your tickets for you. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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From the publisher

The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy. Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and penciled in an additional hike later this year, steps aimed at containing inflation that will test Chairman Kevin Warsh’s relationship with President Donald Trump. Following the US central bank’s first rate increase since July 2023, Warsh restated his concerns over inflation, saying too many categories of products and services were showing annualized price gains above 3% on a 6- and 12-month basis.

On today's episode, Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec come to you live from Future Proof in Huntington, California:

  • Michael McKee, Bloomberg News International Economics & Policy Correspondent
  • Stephanie Aliaga, Global Market Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management
  • Manju Boraiah, Head of Systematic Fixed Income & Custom SMA Portfolio Management at Allspring Global Investments
  • Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal, Co-Hosts of Bloomberg's Odd Lots Podcast

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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