Fed’s Beige Book Says War Lifts Uncertainty for US Companies

25:56Dow and ExxonMobil are among the companies boosting prices for plastics as the sector grapples with supply shocks from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Dow said today, or rather Monday, that it will raise prices for North American buyers of polyethylene resins. It's a common plastic found in packaging, films, containers, through at least May. That's according to a document viewed by Bloomberg. John Roberts is with us. He watches this closely. He's a managing director at Mizuho who follows the chemicals industry very closely, includes Ecolab, PPG, Sherwin-Williams, Albemarle, Huntsman, Dow, many more.

26:29He joins us from New York. John, welcome. As I've mentioned - Thank you for having me. Yeah, we're happy to have you. And this is a really important sector because if we think about just the end product and what comes from oil, oftentimes consumers think about this from the perspective of, okay, what does it mean at the gas station? What does it mean for when I fill out my car? Um, what does LNG increasing mean for European energy costs? Uh, what does it mean for flying? But this, the, the byproducts and the refined products really go into everything. Just, just give us your view high level on what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for the companies that you follow so closely.

27:07Yeah. So, um, everything in the synthetic world comes from the barrel of oil. Uh, so the Persian Gulf's a big producer of chemicals. There are big produce—their refineries produce feedstocks for the other chemical plants around the world. And they sell oil to other refineries that make feedstocks for other chemical plants. So there's multilayer shortages here. And almost everything in the Persian Gulf is shut down right now because they ran out of places to store things. So whether facilities were damaged or not, there's just no place to start up those plants until we move that inventory out of the Gulf that's kind of backed up there.

27:42I call it we bricked up the production cycle there in the Persian Gulf. Hey, John, so, you know, the big million, billion, trillion dollar question, of course, is when this war is officially over and things start to get back to, quote, unquote, normal. But let's say that this what feels like progress and talks between the United States and Iran and things coming down, it feels like it's happening. But, you know, things can turn on in a moment's notice. But having said that, if that's indeed the case, how quickly do these facilities, as you said, multi-level shortages, how quickly do these facilities get up and running?

28:21I keep going back to this one stat that's just stuck in my mind about Qatar and LNG that, you know, responsible for 30 percent of global capacity and that it's going to take like three to five years to fix the damage that's been done. But you're the expert. Tell us about how quickly things kind of get back to normal. Well, even if there's no damage there, you may remember winter storm Uri that we had in the U.S. Gulf Coast a few years ago, and we shut down most of the U.S. Gulf Coast capacity. It took us a few months to get everything restarted here in the U.S. with everything going fine. These plants just don't turn back on by throwing a switch here.

29:00You have to inert all the pipelines and vessels with nitrogen gas because when you turn on the motors and pumps, you might get a spark. We don't store any nitrogen gas. It's made daily by the gas company. So there isn't enough nitrogen gas to restart all the capacity all at once, the same way there wasn't here in the U.S. And again, we have to move the inventory that's in the Gulf out of the Gulf. And we have to bring new ships into the Gulf before we can start those plants up because we have no place to put the product right now. So I mentioned the... It's going to take, I would say, through the third quarter, maybe into year end.

29:36You know, I don't think anybody really knows, but it's months. That's why Dow is going to be raising prices again, May 1, maybe June 1, maybe July 1. Yeah. OK. Carol, were you going to say something? Well, the only thing I was going to say is once prices go up, do they really ever go down? I mean, the market dictates what happens, right? Certainly in the face of competition. But give us, you know, we keep talking about energy prices kind of maybe leveling off at a certain point because of some global dynamics maybe going forward. But what about for the chemical industry? Well, again, I would say oil sets the cost curve for most of these basic petrochemicals.

30:10And the futures market, at least, is predicting that oil doesn't go all the way back down to 60 or 65. So when we do come back down, we probably don't go all the way back down to where we were pre-conflict here. But I would say on average takes about four months for pricing to peak, and then it will stay plateaued until we actually start to get things restarted. So we haven't peaked yet, and we may stay at a plateau towards the latter part of this year. I mentioned just a handful of the companies that you cover. Those include PPG and Sherwin-Williams, and we like to look at those companies just in a different way, I imagine, than you do, just for demand for paint, for example, and the way that consumers are thinking about projects and as a measure of how consumers are thinking about the economy.

30:58How are those specific companies affected by these higher input costs? Well, it will mostly be there, and it's not Sherwin-Williams because they're primarily domestic. But PPG is one of the larger architectural paint companies in Australia, for example. And I think Asia is expected. Anywhere that you hear about jet fuel shortages or gasoline shortages, it's the same place you're probably going to hear about chemical and plastic material shortages. So we have to bring demand down to balance with the reduced supply. So we're going to rationing pricing. So industries that can pay a high price will get product, and industries that can use substitutes are going to move into other materials.

31:39So we're going to package more paint in metal pails, for example. We're going to use more paper instead of plastic packaging. We're going to blend more natural fibers into clothing instead of synthetic fibers. So that's how we're going to bring, you know, high prices will cause people to use other materials and will bring the demand for the chemicals down. I can read Carol's mind. I know she's looking at a Lululemon story. It's like there's lights that go off in my head or maybe it's because I'm wearing yoga pants. Don't tell anybody at this moment. But, you know, John, one of the stories that really caught our attention was Lululemon.

32:11This Texas investigation into their clothing for the presence of basically PFAS, these forever chemicals. I mean, increasingly, will we see this pushback and more and more chemicals being taken out of the system, especially when it comes to plastics? I know in my own house, whether it's microwaving and not doing, you know, putting plastic going to glass increasingly. I mean, are we really seeing this pushback and the momentum growing? Well, that's a whole separate issue. PFAS is not a Persian Gulf issue. And there really only have been two PFAS molecules that have been banned. And PFAS is a generic term for lots of fluorine-based chemistry that's there.

32:51And if we had cheaper substitutes, we'd be using them. And Lulumelemon and others have found some cheaper or competitive substitutes for certain applications. But the vast majority of PFAS molecules don't have replacement products here. So we're going to have PFAS chemistry around for a long time here. Everybody would like everything to be all natural and to have zero chemicals in any detection that's there. But zero is not possible and there's not enough natural materials in the world to satisfy all our basic needs. Unless we cut back on consumption, right? Or you're not even saying that. I mean, it would be just we're so dependent on it.

33:32Well, as I said, we're going to go back to some steel pails for paint. We're going to go back to paper. You know, everybody remembers the ham in your refrigerator didn't last as long when it was wrapped in paper from the deli. We have it in plastic because it improves the shelf life of food so that we can temporarily substitute backwards that's there. But I don't think the world wants to go backwards. I think we want to go forward. Any of the companies in your portfolio that just aren't affected by this or are immune to this? Yeah, actually. And one of the biggest specialty chemical areas is electronic chemicals.

34:03So we cover Corning as a specialty glass company. Yeah. We cover Integris, Semiconductor Chemicals. CUNITY Electronics was spun off from DuPont recently. That's printed circuit board and semiconductor chemicals and Element Solutions. So these companies are doing great right now. Do you have a favorite in the space? Yeah, our top pick right now is Element Solutions, which is an electronic chemicals company, printed circuit board and semiconductor chemicals. and the CEO is about to receive award here in New York in April. It'll actually be at the Mizuho Tech Conference coming up in June that's there.

34:40So chemistry crosses over with all of the end markets that are served. So we have a lot of crossover stocks. When you mentioned Sherwin before, there are housing analysts, building materials analysts, and retail analysts that would look like that. So chemicals invades all the end markets. I'll ask the other question, a least favorite. But, you know, you have three underperforms, Huntsman, Orion, and Tronox Holdings. Talk about those. Well, actually, we recently added that. So CF Industries, which is an ammonia chemical producer. Ammonia is one of the big Middle East chemicals. It's made from natural gas that's there.

35:15Iran was a big producer. Prices have soared. But the U.S. planting season is already well underway. We're going to pretty soon come out of the seasonal peak. The U.S. actually becomes a net exporter of ammonia after about May. And so we think those prices for ammonia are going to come down pretty hard. And we have a sell on CF Industries right now. All right. So appreciate your time. And this was a great deep dive. I hope you'll come back. We'd love to continue the conversation. John, thank you so much. John Roberts, Muzo Managing Director, joining us right here in New York City. He mentioned Element Solution, which already makes me think it's a CEO I want to get on and talk to.

35:51based in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Ticker is ESI stock. It's up about 49 % year to date. It's about a$9 billion market cap company. And he talked about being specialty chemicals and certainly working in electronics and so on. So pretty interesting. Or you could go to the Mizuho conference and talk to him too. I could do that as well, which would also be very cool. That would be cool. That was a, you know. That was really cool. I told you, one word, plastics. Plastics, plastics. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.

36:25So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now, a global workforce of 300 ,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94 % of common questions. Not noise, proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off. deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM. For many men, mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll. Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships, and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down, often without clear warning signs.

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37:49Do that with Acrobat. Want to stop searching for files and finally get everyone on the same page? Do that. Do that. Do that with Acrobat. Learn more at adobe.com slash do that with Acrobat. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. or watch us live on YouTube. The shares of Live Nation, they dipped as much as 4.5 % earlier, down about 1.7 % right now. This after a New York federal jury found today that the company illegally monopolized ticketing markets.

38:28The jury did reach its verdict following a six-week trial. Some other headlines from this, Live Nation overcharged fans by$1.72 per ticket, a jury found. I don't know. No comment. No comment. No comment. Oh, sorry. Wait. Anyone who's ever on radio, they didn't see my face. They heard they heard that. I don't know what that's called. Psy. They heard that sigh. And yeah, we're going to. Sorry, I can't get past that. That one dollar and seventy two cents. Live Nation judge will decide later on a remedy, including a breakup. I want to bring in Jennifer Reece, senior antitrust litigation analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence.

39:05Jen, I guess we got to start with the dollar seventy two because I'm not going to be able to get past that. What are the what's the math that the jury used to come up with this fee and why is this important? So that fee was actually derived by an expert economist that had been hired by the plaintiffs for the purposes of the state laws that they alleged were violated to determine what the damages amount should be. And I know that a dollar seventy two amount seems very low. And I think when it came out in trial, we all were a bit surprised as well. But you have to realize that that's for every single ticket sold for a fairly long span of years in 24 states.

39:46So the total amount will really add up. I mean, theoretically, that total amount would be in the multi-millions, possibly even more. So while it sounds low, it could still end up being a pretty big recovery for the states that are still in as plaintiffs. But it wasn't really the jury's math. It was the expert's math that the juries decided to accept. Whose experts? the expert hired by the plaintiffs dr rosa brontes metz okay asking you shall get the answer yeah she knows i should know my audience significant is significant this ruling and does it have implications for others i think this ruling is significant because honestly it's been over the years very very difficult for plaintiffs to win monopolization suits against big companies and in particular a suit like this one where the federal government is no longer in the case because they settled.

40:37And it's a group of states only going out on their own. And it just shows that plaintiffs can win these monopolization suits where they have compelling evidence, even where it's really hard fought by the defense. Because I have to say, having been to quite a bit of that trial, the defense put on a really good case as well. And at the end, I think most people who had been watching weren't too sure how this was going to come out. I'm looking at some other companies that may be affected by this competitor. StubHub up 3%. Shares quickly moved higher after this. Vivid Seats up as much as 8 % or 8 % as we speak right now.

41:15Apart from the$1.72 cents per ticket, Jen, a remedy that could include a breakup, is that realistic here? I think the states will go for that. I don't know how realistic it is. I think that's a tall ask for any judge and would be stuck in appeals for years. Because if the judge did order something like that, Live Nation would certainly appeal and ask for it to be stayed. And I certainly think it would be stayed. I'm not exactly sure what the judge can do here, because, you know, the issue is that Live Nation really has power in so many different components of the concert experience from, you know, A to the N to the concert, that it blocks out all those other competitors, those companies that you just named that where stock has reacted is because they all claim to be blocked out of the market by Ticketmaster and Live Nation's tactics.

42:05So what they're all hoping is that there's a remedy here that stops Live Nation from really preventing some of these other ticketing agents to get in there and ticket venues for big shows. And that's what the judge is really going to have to do. It's now up to the states to proffer something, to suggest what they think is the right breakup in addition to a divestiture of Ticketmaster, because they have to have an alternative in case the judge isn't willing to stick his neck out that far. I mean, Jen, you look at this stuff all the time, pretty clear cut. I mean, I think some of us are thinking, yeah, like there's not a lot of choices when you go to buy tickets.

42:37And it's a little frustrating when you're trying to make sense of fees and the cost. But like, you know, is it kind of like, yeah, it was just a matter of time before this had to be looked at? You know, I see it that way. Absolutely. And I think that there's a history here by which Live Nation has behaved badly, according to the government. They entered a consent order in 2010 when they acquired Ticketmaster, and they were found several years later during the first Trump administration to have violated that order. The order was clarified, supplemented, and extended. And apparently, they're still violating that order.

43:11So yes, Carol, for people who've been watching, they think something has to be done beyond just telling the company you must behave in a certain way that the company ignores. I got to say, there's got to be a point when I think about all the things we talk about, blockchain and digital, like, why can't you just go on a site and just pay for it directly, right? So the money goes to the performers and everybody who's involved in the production and not just all these extra fees that make you wonder, what's up? Well, I think the venue, venues have exclusive agreements with these ticketers, right? But why?

43:46Why not have all the money just go right to the venues and the performers and the people who actually are putting on the production? Why do we need all these intermediaries? The company that has control over most of the industry has set it up in such a complicated way that it benefits their bottom line and not necessarily the artists or the venues bottom line. And that was a big part of this trial. So I'm never going to be able to go to a concert now. You're going to use that. Or anything I need a ticket for. I have been banned. My face is on everybody. I was going to say. You are a gem. Thank you so much.

44:18We'll be following this one, but always appreciate, Jen, when we can check in with you. That is, of course, our own Jen Rhee. When it comes to anything with antitrust issues, she's the one we want to talk to. She's Senior Antitrust Litigation Analyst at our Bloomberg Intelligence team. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

44:41So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now, a global workforce of 300 ,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94 % of common questions. Not noise, proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business, IBM. For many men, mental health challenges aren't recognized until they've already taken a toll. Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships, and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down, often without clear warning signs.

45:26In Season 3 of The Visibility Gap, Dr. Guy Winch and his guests explore how these pressures show up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support. Listen to the new season of The Visibility Gap, a podcast presented by Cigna Healthcare. You need to make a huge presentation in an hour. Adobe Acrobat uses AI to take all your documents and generate a presentation with a single click. Build slides quickly and streamline the process. Need a last-minute pitch deck? Do that with Acrobat. Need to level up your presentation design? Do that with Acrobat. You have 30-plus documents that need to be simplified into a proposal.

46:07Do that. Do that. Do that with Acrobat. Learn more at adobe.com slash do that with Acrobat. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube. Well, just last week, UnitedHealth Group stock had its best week in seven months after surprise hike in Medicare rates. And yet, and yet, the company's last remaining bear, Tim, standing by his call. A bear analyst, Michael Ha, maintained his underperformed call on the stock, saying the rate hike is a temporary bomb, masking other issues.

46:48Bloomberg News equities reporter Avalon Purnell, Carol, wrote all about it and brought it to our attention. She's here in the studio, and she also brought Michael. Yeah, you did. Thank you. Thank you. Welcome, welcome. Michael, good to have you here. Avalon, good to have you here. Tell us about this call, because I'm looking at the stock. I think you went underperform, was it back in July of last year? July of last year. And I think the stock's up about 20 % there. So tell us about your call and why you didn't maybe change the rating on this Medicare news, especially when the stocks just took off like a rocket.

47:23Right. Great question. So maybe taking a step back, we believe UnitedHealth is facing structural issues within its crown jewel, Optum. So just for a quick context, UnitedHealth is two parts. Health insurance, which we're all pretty familiar with. But then the second part is something called Optum, high margin, high growth. It's basically, think of it as they own providers, PBM, health tech. And it's meant to really usher in this new future of multiple expansion, margin expansion, growth. But within this segment, we see structural issues versus the other companies in our coverage. We think there are more cyclical pressures.

47:56And it's that distinction that's core to our underperformed rating. And we think other people are under appreciating this dynamic. So let's dig into that a little bit, Michael. What are those structural issues that you see in Optimum? Yeah, great question. So within Optimum, they've slowly amassed over the last 15 years, the largest provider asset. So everyone thinks of them as a health insurer. They're also the largest provider. They have 100 ,000 providers employed or affiliated out of a million in the country. And we believe - What's that distinction? Go there again. Explain that distinction.

48:28So you say healthcare provider, but they also are? The largest health insurer in the country. Okay. So they have both. Okay. Right? And a lot of people don't realize that. And within that Optum Health piece, that provider arm, there's a dynamic called risk adjustment. It's very, very important to how these plans get paid per member. And we're saying that based on our analysis, these 100 ,000 doctors are not only great at risk adjustment, which is a multiplier in revenue, they're very aggressive. And what's happening over the past few years, regulatory pressures clamping down on risk adjustment.

49:02And if you're on the wrong side of that, which UnitedHealth is and OptumHealth, when we first downgraded OptumHealth, they were at 6 % margins. Now, as of recent fourth quarter, minus 0.8 % margins. And there's more pressure. And this is just OptumHealth. I can go on for an hour, but OptumInsight as well, we see structural issues. Yeah, Michael, I'd also love to jump in here. I know that it's not just those risk adjustment issues. there's also other issues like broadly looking at health care insurers with like medicare affordable care act i would love for you to kind of expand on that in terms of how you kind of view the wider space yeah that's a great question so um maybe even taking a step back sorry i keep taking steps back but in this environment here is complicated i don't know if you know that but it is very and historically you could close your eyes throw a dart at the board and anything you land on it'll trade up with the group this is that game is over the easy trade is done it's a selection market and we don't select UnitedHealth.

49:56And to your point on issues, it's broad-based. It's everywhere. And they're all converging at once across Medicare Advantage, Medicaid, Exchange, Marketplace, PBM, Value-Based Care. These are literally all the elements of UnitedHealth. And we think the rebound will be uneven. United, it's more structural. Other companies, it's more cyclical. So then they can actually rebound over the next, call it, couple or a few years, but United and Optum Health, we think it's not going away anytime soon. I guess one other piece that I'm really curious about is, yes, you are very bearish on United Health, but you are kind of bullish about other names within the sector like CVS, Cigna.

50:32What are you seeing there that you're not seeing at United Health? Yeah, great question. And our top pick, Alignment Health, which we think is the best Medicare Advantage plan in the country. Well, these companies, the issues are more cyclical. So for CVS, for example, they do have a value-based care company comparable to Optum providers, but it's small. It's called Oak Street. So even if it's impacted, it's minimal. Minimal impact to enterprise earnings. So what you have left is a health insurance business, a.k.a. Aetna, is now part of CVS. And the earnings power unlock in that business is very attractive.

51:06So we're going to see that play out over the next few years. We think they can possibly get to$10 EPS from seven roughly today. Do you think they shed assets on the way to doing that? CVS? Yeah. They may with Oak Street and their value-based care business, but the rest of their assets seem fairly in decent standing. For Optum Health, though, I think that's their only option. They have to shed provider assets, divest. What percentage of UnitedHealthcare's top and bottom line is Optum? Great question. So before this whole downturn, it was about 25 % of earnings. Today, 11 % of earnings. So that's Optum Health, by the way, the provider arm.

51:45The entire Optum piece, which is the provider, PBM, and technology, it's over half of their earnings overall. And that mix is shifting. Optum Insight is now 25%. So you put two businesses that are struggling together, that's about a third of the enterprise earnings that are under structural pressures that I think investors are not appreciating. I'm also kind of curious, like UnitedHealth has been touting some investments in AI. Like, what's your read on that? I know we discussed this last week, but how are you kind of reading that as well? Since I have definitely heard some positive sentiment among investors, but do you feel differently?

52:17Right, right. And it's funny. I'm connected with Mark Cuban on LinkedIn. He was just talking about AI and inability. He noticed this story big time. Can I share it? Oh, sorry. It's too late. But he did, right? Right. And he reached out. So AI, I mean, think about it. United Health, 2 ,700 subsidiaries, all loosely connected, right? The data architecture is not there to implement AI or build a unified data. It's really tough enough in a clean system. So with the UnitedHealth, with a large legacy insurer, it's going to be very difficult. So if you're betting on an AI play to help lower GNA, I think there are other sectors to do that.

52:57What about from the other side of this and the patient side of this? I mean, I've talked to some folks who've looked at this and they think within our lifetime, doctors will be replaced as a result of AI. They say that radiologists are the ones who are ripe for this disruption. Is that something that you see? I think we're far away from that right now. I think right now the new term application of AI is more of a tool to help aid providers. Like point of care tools, you pop open your computer, it pops up in the records. It will suggest... I think we've all been in the doctor and seen those AI tools.

53:30I think right now that's the application. Longer term, perhaps, but I wouldn't see that as a near-term discussion. Michael, really quickly, 25 seconds. All right, so you've got the lone bear on the street on this name. What would make you become more positive? Is it that they get rid of this business or what? And just quickly. Yes, if they get rid of this business and they shed these assets, yes. But also, what will come with it? Multiple contraction because that business is no longer viable. So then if the multiple comes down, United historically call it a 20 times multiple. If it comes down to 13 to 15, the amount of earnings growth you have to get from shutting those assets has to be so large for it to be attractive to own today, which we don't think is very likely.

54:09But that would be the one thing. Interesting stuff. So great to have you come in here and expand on Avalon's story. Great reporting, Avalon. So stay in touch. Thank you so much. Yeah, love to follow. Bloomberg News, equities reporter Avalon Purnell, she wrote this story. Check it out. It's on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg.com. And, of course, Michael Haas. He's Baird, senior research analyst covering UnitedHealth. Michael, thanks so much. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m.

54:41Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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