Instant Reaction: Apple Shares Gain as Sales Top Estimates

30 Oct 2025 · 10 min · 4 chapters

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In short

Bloomberg “Instant Reaction” to Apple’s earnings, focusing on why shares rose despite misses in Greater China.

Guests

Jay Goldberg, senior analyst for semiconductors and electronics at Seaport Research Partners (buy on Apple), based in San Francisco; Mark Gurman, Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Technology, based in Los Angeles.

Key claims

Services and gross margins beat expectations; iPhone grew ~6% YoY and most categories beat; Greater China revenue was $14.49B, 12% below consensus ($16.43B), linked to iPhone Air availability/delay in China and lack of a China-specific AI strategy.

Notable examples

iPhone Air not available in China during September; Tim Cook’s comment that December-quarter revenue should grow 10–12% YoY; CFO Kevin Parick’s outlook including double-digit iPhone revenue growth.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Apple's Financial Performance Overview

1:00 to 1:30

Analysis of Apple's recent earnings report highlights mixed results.

“When you own your own business, you own every decision.”

Apple's Financial Performance Overview

2:34 to 5:20

Analysis of Apple's recent earnings report highlights mixed results.

“Apple shares actually moving into the green, Carol.”

Discussion on iPhone and Market Dynamics

5:20 to 7:17

Experts discuss the performance of iPhones and market challenges.

“You're going to hold off your iPhone purchases now and wait for that.”

Insights from Mark Gurman on Apple's Strategies

7:17 to 10:10

Mark Gurman shares insights on Apple's performance and strategies in China.

“We're going to come back to Jay Goldberg in just a minute or two.”
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Transcript

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2:50Let's start with the misses. Fourth quarter, Greater China Revenue, a big, big miss there. $14.49 billion. The estimate was for$16.43 billion. Overall revenue, though, coming in above$100 billion. That for the first time ever for the September quarter. Greater China Revenue, 12 % below consensus estimate. Services came in with a nice beat. Another miss, surprisingly, the iPhone,$49.03 billion versus$49.3 billion. Yeah, Mark Gurman saying operating expenses, which everyone is now closely watching thanks to Meta, came in line with expectations of$15.91 billion. I'm sure we will hear more about AI investing on the call.

3:29That's coming from our Mark Gurman, who covers Apple so closely and looks at consumer tech overall. Let's get to it with Jay Goldberg. He's senior analyst, semiconductors and electronics at Seaport Research Partners. He's got a buy on Apple. joining us from San Francisco. Take it away. Apple, what do you think? Yeah, it looks OK. It's not perfect. It's not totally clean, but it's got some good stuff. It's got some, you know, OK stuff. Yeah, go ahead, Carol. Well, what's good? What's OK? I mean, just going against my numbers, it looks like services is much stronger than I expected. iPhone was good.

4:08iPad was surprisingly good. I don't know if anyone tracks that anymore, but iPad was good. And gross margins were better than expected. I've been a little cautious about gross margins in consumer companies lately because memory prices are going up. But I don't see that in Apple's numbers. The China stuff, you pointed that out. I think that's concerning, not entirely surprising. It's not surprising, but it's 12 % below consensus. So it surprised some people.

4:37Yeah. Yeah, I mean, just given the state of the world, I think expecting too much from an American company selling it in China right now is going to always disappoint. But, you know, hopefully we have a trade deal and that all goes away. It's a trade truce, I think, is the way that we heard about it today. Trade truce. Is a trade truce enough for that to go away? I think so. I think more practically what was going on in China is the iPhone Air is not available there. It's hard to get here. Production hasn't fully ramped yet. And I think that's going to be the real hit. Right. And this is Apple.

5:10They know how to get their supply chain in time for the year end holiday shopping season. And I don't think I've had I don't think the iPhone air is readily available in China. So I think that will that will help. And so if you're a Chinese consumer, you're looking at it, you see the iPhone air coming. You're going to hold off your iPhone purchases now and wait for that. All right. Shares of Apple now up about one percent here in the aftermarket. So bouncing around, no doubt about it. Mark Gurman on our live blog, who covers Apple and often is breaking exclusives on the company, noting that while China is harsh, they are likely pleased.

5:42Investors, they are likely pleased with the overall revenue growth of 8%, the giant services number. That's something Jay just pointed out. And the 6 % year-over-year iPhone growth, overall a solid quarter. So top of mind for you, what is it that you would, what do you want to know more from when it comes to Apple here, Jay? I think I'm willing to wait on the AI story. I know your previous guest was talking about that, and he's absolutely right. The AI story is important for Apple, but I don't think it's important today. I can wait six months, nine months, a year for them to sort it out. Remember when Apple Maps launched, whatever, 10 years ago?

6:17It was terrible. It was a joke. Now I use Apple Maps more than I use Google Maps. It's gotten better. Sometimes Apple just takes a while to get there. So I'm okay waiting with it. They need to solve it. That's really important, but they don't need to solve it this quarter. I would like to just hear them talk about the supply chain and what's going on in China and what's driving, what are the dynamics in the iPhone business? I think that's the most important. Is there a compelling reason for people to upgrade to 17, to the iPhone 17? I think the Air is pretty intriguing. I'm on the fence. I usually upgrade every year.

6:52I think I'm going to hold out though, because I'm pretty sure they're going to have a foldable phone next year. So that'll be exciting. But I think that everyone I talk to has the air is just raves about it. Like they're enthusiastic about this iPhone in a way that I haven't heard people be enthusiastic about an iPhone in many years. Just to rehash, we've got now shares of Apple up about 1.8 % here in the aftermarket. So this is despite those disappointing sales in China, which did fall short of analyst estimates, but strong overall sales in the period. Hey, let's go to our L.A. Bureau for a moment.

7:25We're going to come back to Jay Goldberg in just a minute or two. Mark Gurman is Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Technology. He is out there in our L.A. Bureau. Mark, fascinating in a short period of time, 12 minutes to see the stock being sold off a little bit to now rallying almost 2 percent. Walk us through this quarter. What stands out here? Yeah, what stands out here is iPhone obviously grew tremendously, 6 % year over year. They beat in nearly every product category, except the iPad had an extremely slight miss on Wall Street forecasts. And again, those are just forecast numbers that get made up anyways.

8:04So I don't think too big of a deal there. The big one, though, is a big decline and miss in greater China. I think some of that can be attributed to the iPhone Air delay, which was not expected When they originally announced the iPhone Air, they anticipated a September release alongside the other models. That model has been doing decently in China since it was released just about a week ago now. The other thing to point out is the seesaw you saw. Originally, the stock dipped on the China development, and maybe iPhone sales weren't as strong as some had anticipated. but Tim Cook told news outlets that got pre-briefed on the Apple earnings results earlier today that the December quarter would grow 10 to 12 percent on an annual basis, which is obviously a fantastic jump for them.

8:55That is a year-over-year growth in the holiday period we have not seen for a very long time, and Apple hasn't provided guidance in a very long time because of COVID and everything that's happened since then. So it's pretty significant. Yeah, shares up 2.9 % as we speak right now. Mark, just one more question for you, and then I know you got to run. On China and the big miss on China, you said it's not too surprising, yet still came in 12 % below consensus estimates. I'm not going to say Apple should throw in the towel in China, but how vulnerable is Apple in China? They're certainly vulnerable in China, but they have obviously a big retail portfolio there of about 50 stores.

9:36As I've said multiple times, they need to start launching products that are specific to the Chinese market. They still don't have their AI strategy together in China. And so we'll see once AI is implemented and iPhones in China next year, if that begins helping turn some things around. And we'll see, you know, we're going to have some pent up demand in China now for the current quarter, the first quarter of the holiday period, because the iPhone air didn't go on sale in September during the September period. All right, Mark, we know you've got to run over to the TV side. So appreciate you jumping on with us.

10:10Mark Gurman, he's Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech, really, as we remind everybody, our go-to on Apple, breaking all these exclusive. And right now, the stock is trending higher now, up about 3.5 percent. I will point out that Mark mentioned some news that the chief financial officer had shared with some various media outlets. I'm just looking at the Financial Times. And again, just going back to that, Apple gave a bullish outlook for its crucial holiday sales period, reported record annual profit. Today, the CFO, Kevin Parick, saying Apple expects total company revenue to grow 10 to 12 % year over year in the three months to December with iPhone revenue growing double digits.

10:57So And that is probably why we are seeing Apple shares do that turnaround now up almost 4 % in the aftermarket. Yeah, pretty remarkable to see the turnaround. But, you know, that's what happens. And you get more detail from executives. The call hasn't even started yet. So we'll wait for the call also to start. And maybe we'll see some more movement there, too. Just to repeat, fourth quarter iPad revenue coming in ever so slightly below estimates at$6.95 billion. Products revenue coming in above estimates. Greater China revenue, a big miss there. $14.49 billion, 12 % below consensus estimates of$16.43 billion.

11:31Fourth quarter earnings per share coming in above estimates at$1.85. Mac revenue beating at$8.73 billion. Fourth quarter services revenue also beat their$28.75 billion. Quite a turnaround in the aftermarket trade.

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From the publisher

Apple's fourth-quarter revenue edged past analysts’ estimates despite a surprise sales decline in China, where it’s been struggling to stage a comeback. Total sales rose 7.9% to $102.5 billion in the period, which ended Sept. 27, the company said in a statement Thursday. That slightly beat the $102.2 billion average estimate. The company benefited from stronger-than-expected services growth, helping offset the China slowdown. The Mac and wearables division also performed better than anticipated. Apple shares gained more than 3% in late trading after the results were released. They had been up 8.4% this year through the close.

For more, Bloomberg Businessweek Daily spoke with Jay Goldberg, Senior Analyst, Semiconductors & Electronics with Seaport Research Partners and Mark Gurman, Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech.

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