Iran Leader Says Strait of Hormuz to Stay Shut

12 Mar 2026 · 37 min · 26 chapters

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In short

Podcast Summary: Bloomberg Businessweek - Episode: "Iran Leader Says Strait of Hormuz to Stay Shut"

Overview In this episode of Bloomberg Businessweek, hosts Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec discuss escalating tensions in the Middle East following the statements of Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The episode features insights from various experts on the implications of these developments for global energy markets and the economy.

Key Discussions

Iran's Position on the Strait of Hormuz

  • Supreme Leader's Statement: Mojtaba Khamenei has declared that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed amid ongoing U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran. He emphasized the strategy of keeping this critical waterway effectively shut to disrupt oil and gas supplies, contributing to rising global energy prices.
  • Impact on Global Energy Prices: This closure has led to a surge in crude oil prices, with WTI reaching $100 per barrel. The geopolitical tension is presenting significant challenges for global markets, particularly in the energy sector.

U.S. Response to Iran's Actions

  • Military Actions: The U.S. has indicated plans to deploy naval escorts for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, as tensions rise. U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons remains a priority, highlighting the administration's commitment to addressing threats from Tehran.
  • Economic Ramifications: Trump noted that while rising oil prices are a concern, the geopolitical stability of the Middle East is of greater importance, emphasizing a strong stance against Iran.

Expert Insights

  1. Jennifer Welch (Bloomberg Economics Chief Geoeconomics Analyst):
  2. Discussed the uncertainty surrounding the timeline of the conflict and the potential for diplomatic resolutions. She noted that the hardline stance from Iran could complicate future negotiations.
  3. Suggested that the conflict could deepen Iran's resolve to develop a nuclear deterrent.
  1. Rockford Weitz (Professor at Tufts University):
  2. Analyzed the implications of Iran laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating that this could further complicate maritime security and disrupt shipping routes.
  3. Mentioned the historical context of Iran’s naval tactics and how they could escalate the conflict.
  1. Jason Greenblatt (American Century Investments):
  2. Offered insights on the investment landscape amid geopolitical instability, noting that the war's impact on energy prices could have broader effects on consumer spending and economic growth.
  1. Michael Lohan (CEO of IDA Ireland):
  2. Provided a perspective on how these developments might affect foreign direct investment in Ireland, particularly in light of rising oil prices and inflationary pressures in Europe.

Key Takeaways

  • The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is critical for global energy markets, with Iran's aggressive stance likely to keep oil prices volatile.
  • U.S. military actions and statements indicate a strong commitment to preventing further Iranian nuclear developments, but the path to diplomatic resolution remains fraught with challenges.
  • Economic experts warn that prolonged conflict could have serious repercussions for the global economy, particularly in energy-dependent sectors.
  • The interplay between geopolitical tensions and market reactions highlights the complexity of global trade and investment environments.

Conclusion This episode of Bloomberg Businessweek sheds light on the intricate dynamics of international relations, energy markets, and economic strategies in times of crisis. As the conflict unfolds, the implications for both regional stability and global economic health are becoming increasingly significant.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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U.S. Maritime Law and Oil Prices

1:32 to 2:58

Discussion on changes in U.S. maritime law and its implications for oil prices.

“Reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead.”

Iran's Stance on the Strait of Hormuz

2:58 to 4:24

Analysis of Iran's position on the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on global oil markets.

“Meantime, we've had President Trump out today on social saying a few things, but he also said the United States is the largest oil producer in the world by far.”

Insights from Jennifer Welch

4:24 to 4:55

Jennifer Welch provides insights on the U.S.-Iran conflict and potential outcomes.

“And at this moment, it's very hard to say, even though we're 13 days into this conflict.”

Future of U.S.-Iran Relations

4:55 to 6:06

Exploration of the changing dynamics in U.S.-Iran relations amidst conflict.

“I think certainly what we can expect, and this may not be just about the individual, but the broader system that he represents, that after the U.S.”

Economic Impacts of the Conflict

6:06 to 6:49

Discussion on how the ongoing conflict affects the U.S. and global economies.

“And there were a lot of ways in which Iran was rebuilding the capacity to pose more of a threat to the U.S.”

Legal Implications of the Jones Act

9:50 to 11:18

Exploration of the implications of waiving the Jones Act amid surging oil prices.

“You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast.”

The Threat of Mines in the Strait of Hormuz

11:18 to 14:03

Discussion on the threat posed by mines in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. naval capabilities.

“Gulf Coast than they are here in New England, where I am, or on the West Coast.”

Exploring Naval Mines and Warfare

14:03 to 14:50

Learn about undersea drones and the historical context of naval mines.

“It wouldn't be surprising that it's essentially a mine that maybe has a little bit of smart technology that can.”

U.S. Intelligence and Iran's Capabilities

14:50 to 16:33

Discussion on the U.S. intelligence assessment of Iran's military capabilities.

“We had a great Bloomberg Big Take story that got into this about that maybe how the U.S.”

Duration of Conflict and Predictions

16:33 to 17:34

Insights into estimates surrounding the ongoing conflict and its potential duration.

“I don't know what I don't know, but I have a sense that it's one of those two kind of theories of the case.”
Show all 26 chapters

Introduction to the Next Segment

17:34 to 18:01

Transition to the next discussion segment related to corporate bond markets.

“At that point, I think this should be largely stabilized.”

Corporate Bond Market Dynamics

21:16 to 22:16

Analysis of recent trends in corporate bond sales amid geopolitical tensions.

“Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern.”

Understanding Investor Sentiment

22:16 to 24:21

Discussion on investor sentiment and concerns surrounding Salesforce's bond sale.

“He oversees more than$40 billion in AUM in fixed income assets.”

Impact of Rising Rates on Credit Markets

24:21 to 25:56

Exploration of how rising interest rates affect credit markets and borrowers.

“So what is, are you seeking any stress within the credit markets and the debt markets?”

Effects of Oil Prices on the Economy

25:56 to 28:00

Analysis of how rising energy prices impact consumers and the broader economy.

“So the lower quality part of the cohort, those borrowers that really don't have a lot of cash flow, could be more susceptible.”

Market Pressures and Consumer Impact

28:00 to 29:18

Discussion on strategic reserves and the pressure on consumers due to current market dynamics.

“But certainly thinking about the strategic reserves and the release, it doesn't really unclog the situation in terms of prices.”

Investment Trends in a Shaky Market

29:18 to 30:04

Exploration of trends in U.S. borrowing and market dynamics amidst rising oil prices.

“where it's the lowest quality part of the credit markets where there is some pause.”

Analyzing Default Rates in Software Sector

30:04 to 31:15

Insights into the vulnerability of the software sector and potential default rates.

“So does it become an issue in months or years?”

Investment Strategies in a Volatile Environment

31:15 to 32:14

Advice on how investors should navigate the current debt market conditions.

“So what's your advice to investors in this environment?”

FDI Trends and Global Dynamics

36:08 to 41:44

Interview with Michael Owen on foreign direct investment trends amid global conflicts.

“I'm going to say that the president's going to be pretty happy about that.”

The Role of AI in Investment

41:44 to 42:00

Discussion on the impact of AI on investment strategies and its adoption in Ireland.

“It's just an increase in people spreading out their global supply chains, making sure they have access in markets where they're operating.”

The Role of Human Capital in Business Growth

42:00 to 42:44

Understand the importance of human capital for international business expansion.

“Because remember, if you have a company that wants to grow and internationalise, it needs human capital to do so.”

AI Investment Trends in Ireland

42:44 to 43:34

Explore the landscape of AI-related investments by U.S. companies in Ireland.

“So I think in Ireland, we were a very early adopter of digital infrastructure, you know, data centers.”

Data Centers and Energy Challenges in Ireland

43:34 to 44:25

Learn about the challenges and strategies regarding data centers and energy in Ireland.

“So we have that cohort of both the large established and the innovation that's happening, but also those new entrants coming into the European market and global markets and Ireland being their location of time.”

Ireland's Investment Landscape and U.S. Relations

44:25 to 45:45

Discover Ireland's role as a major investor in the U.S. and the importance of bilateral ties.

“And how we're going to do that is actually through renewables.”

Upcoming Events and Opportunities in Ireland

45:45 to 46:59

Get information about upcoming conferences and opportunities to connect in Ireland.

“And those companies are not just Irish companies.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Carol Massar:They told us to expect change. They warned us about the transition. But honestly, they forgot the best part. This is the chapter where we finally focus on us. LifeMD delivers expert menopause and midlife care right from your home. From hormone health to holistic wellness, LifeMD helps you feel your best for the best years of your life. LifeMD, it's just getting good. Visit LifeMD.com slash goodlife. The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works.

0:35Mojtaba Khamenei:At IBM, we've seen this firsthand. But by embedding AI across HR, IT, and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slash repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work. Now we're helping companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business, IBM. Adobe Acrobat Studio, your team's home base. Collaborate within a shared PDF space. You've got your docs, your plans, your specs. And then invite the crew to build what's next.

1:09Tim Stenovec:They talk off the team worse.

1:12Mojtaba Khamenei:They think that this design could be a contender. But when somebody wonders, what's the next steps? AI helps you finish the rest. Bolts are tight. Now your plans are fine.

1:22Tim Stenovec:Run a smoother business when you're all aligned. Do that with Acrobat. Learn more at adobe.com slash do that with Acrobat.

1:32Carol Massar:Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily. Reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead. With insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. with Carol Masser and Tim Stenevek on Bloomberg Radio. In the meantime, the Trump administration plans to issue temporary waivers for century-old maritime law requiring American-built ships being used to transport goods between U.S. ports to stop surging oil prices.

2:13Carol Massar:We've had that come out. We've also heard that the U.S. Navy could start escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of this month. That came from Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Tim, that was on CNBC.

2:23Tim Stenovec:Meantime, crude hits$97 a barrel. WTI Brandt hitting$100 a barrel amid weakening shipment disruptions with Iran's new supreme leader Ayatollah Moueshtaba Khamenei, signaling no intention of ending the Strait of Hormuz closure, specifically saying, quote, the lever of closing the Strait of Hormuz must certainly continue to be used. Studies have been conducted on opening other fronts where the enemy has little experience and would be highly vulnerable, and their activation will take place if the state war persists.

2:53Carol Massar:Now, Iran seems to be doubling down when it comes specifically to holding on its hold, really, on global energy markets and the global economic leverage that it has as a result of that. Meantime, we've had President Trump out today on social saying a few things, but he also said the United States is the largest oil producer in the world by far. So when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money. But a far greater interest and importance to me as president is stopping an evil empire, Iran, from having nuclear weapons and destroying the Middle East and indeed the world. I won't ever let that happen.

3:27Carol Massar:Again, this is coming from President Trump earlier today on social. So where are we? With more and back with us and looking at the war through that geoeconomic lens as she does so well is Bloomberg Economics Chief Geoeconomics analyst, Jennifer Welch. She joins us from our Bloomberg DC Bureau. Jenny, good to have you back. First up, timeline. Seems like there's no end in sight if you look at kind of what we're hearing from both sides, meaning the U.S. and Iran. Is that true? Is there anything going on behind closed doors that we need to know about or what we see and what we've laid out? Tim and I, that's pretty much it right now.

4:02Carol Massar:Yeah, I think as you mentioned, the timeline here is very uncertain and a lot depends on what the U.S. and Israel would consider to be achieving their war aims and therefore giving them the opportunity to seek an exit ramp. I think President Trump has started to signal he is looking for it. But really, the key question is, what is he willing to offer Iran in terms of assurances that would lead them to be willing to accept it? And would Israel go along with it? And at this moment, it's very hard to say, even though we're 13 days into this conflict.

4:31Tim Stenovec:We've heard, Jenny, that over and over again, that the U.S. government had wanted to remove the Ayatollah. And now with the Ayatollah's son in power, I wonder if there's any difference in not necessarily the form of government, but the government's view of the United States. And if that means that if he's in power, that will be a barrier to the president ending this war.

4:58Carol Massar:I think certainly what we can expect, and this may not be just about the individual, but the broader system that he represents, that after the U.S. and Israel struck Iran, that there is going to be more of a hardline position towards the United States, that some of the negotiations that were happening prior to this war, it's harder to imagine those restarting in the wake of it, that Tehran's just going to be far more suspicious of U.S. intentions going forward because of the fact that they were negotiating when this war broke out. And if anything, this may have convinced them that they need a nuclear deterrent in order to really be able to rely on their own security.

5:33Carol Massar:Yeah, it does make us wonder, and I know we've heard some conversations on Bloomberg today about, you know, have we created perhaps an enemy or an entity, Iran, that whether it's three years, five years, ten years, when the rebuild is done, do they just come out the United States with a vengeance? I think there is that risk, but I think it's a present risk. And I would offer, and I think to a certain extent the Trump administration is right on this, that it was a risk beforehand, right? That even though there were negotiations ongoing, the United States and Iran certainly weren't partners. They were not friends.

6:04Carol Massar:Their interests were quite divergent. And there were a lot of ways in which Iran was rebuilding the capacity to pose more of a threat to the U.S. But certainly after this war, regardless of how it ends, I would anticipate that Tehran will double down on those efforts. And not just, by the way, with the nuclear weapon front, but also on the proxy front and the ability to stage attacks abroad, which may be what the Supreme Leader was hinting at in that very ominous statement. Hey, Jenny, last 30, 40 seconds. The problem of the U.S. war in Iran, is it growing in terms of its impact on the U.S. economy, the global economy, or are we still kind of in a wait and see mode?

6:39Carol Massar:The longer this conflict goes on, the bigger the hit will be to not only the U.S. economy, but the global economy, and the more markets will be nervous that these disruptions aren't temporary. All right, going to leave it on that note. Hey, listen, thank you again. I know there's a lot going on over there in the D.C. Bureau, but you're keeping us up to date on it all. Jenny Welch, she's Bloomberg Economics Chief Geo Economics Analyst.

7:00Tim Stenovec:Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.

7:08Carol Massar:They told us to expect change. They warned us about the transition. But honestly, they forgot the best part. This is the chapter where we finally focus on us. Life MD delivers expert menopause and midlife care right from your home. From hormone health to holistic wellness, Life MD helps you feel your best for the best years of your life. Life MD, it's just getting good. Visit LifeMD.com slash goodlife.

7:38Mojtaba Khamenei:Support for the show comes from Public. Public is an investing platform that offers access to stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. And they've also integrated AI with tools that can assist investors in building customized portfolios. One of these tools is called Generated Assets. It allows you to turn your ideas into investable indexes. So let's say you're interested in something specific like biotech companies with high R &D spend, small cap stocks with improving operating margins, or the S &P 500 minus high debt companies. Chances are there isn't an ETF that fits your exact criteria. But on Public, you just type in a prompt and their AI screens thousands of stocks and build a one-of-a-kind index.

8:18Mojtaba Khamenei:You can even backtest it against the S &P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Go to public.com slash market and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash market.

8:42Mojtaba Khamenei:Sample prompts are for illustrative purposes only, not investment advice. All investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosures at public.com slash disclosures.

8:50Carol Massar:Being a small business owner isn't just a career. It's a calling. Chase for Business knows how much heart and effort go into building something of your own. That's why they make business growth their priority. The Chase team takes the time to understand your mission, where you are now, and where you want to go. Their broad range of solutions is designed with you in mind so you can bring your ideas to life. From banking to payment acceptance to credit cards, you can conveniently manage all your business finances all in one place with their digital tools. Looking for tips and advice? Their online resources are always available to give you the solutions you need to help your business thrive.

9:28Carol Massar:See how your business can get stronger and go farther with Chase for Business. Learn more at chase.com slash business. Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. Member FDIC. Copyright 2026. JPMorgan Chase and Company. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube.

10:03Tim Stenovec:Well, the Trump administration plans to waive a century-old marathon law. We're talking about the Jones Act. It requires American ships to be used to transport goods between U.S. ports as it seeks to blunt surging oil and gas prices. That's according to people familiar with the matter. Also, it's becoming increasingly evident that Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. That's according to the U.K. Iran's new supreme leader used his first comments to the media to say the critical waterway should stay closed.

10:29Carol Massar:All right. So a lot to get to with Rockford Weitz, Rocky Weitz. He's professor of practice and director of the Maritime Studies Program at Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. He is once again with us and he's joining us from Medford, Massachusetts. Rocky, great to have you here with us. Will Waving the Jones Act move the needle? What is your interpretation and read on that?

10:52Mojtaba Khamenei:Yeah, great to be back with both of you. Waving the Jones Act will help a little bit. So what that does is it enables foreign vessels to also join U.S. flagged vessels in carrying what's mostly cheaper refined products, so gasoline and diesel, from the U.S. Gulf Coast to either New England or the West Coast. Instead of just being on U.S. flagged tankers, it now can be any tanker. So that would help a little bit because the gasoline and diesel prices are much cheaper in the U.S. Gulf Coast than they are here in New England, where I am, or on the West Coast. So it'll help a bit, but there's other things that may be necessary.

11:32Tim Stenovec:OK, see, I was going to say that helps a little bit, but doesn't do anything when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz. And that really seems to be the choke point here, Rocky, right now. And I'm wondering what your view is if, you know, indeed, this this is among the latest news. The U.K. says it's evident that Iran is laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. What does that do to the prospect of even if this conflict ends soon, what does it mean for this critical waterway?

12:00Mojtaba Khamenei:Yeah, well, so the short answer is nothing good. But the longer answer is that none of this is really a surprise, though it is a bit surprising to me that the U.S. Navy is not a little bit more out in front on this. So it's been known for a long time that Iran has approximately 5 ,000 mines. The Iranian Navy, the larger ships, they're all gone. They were gone last week. But there's a lot of small boats. You can deploy mines with even the fishing Dow vessels that are the local fishing vessels. So, you know, mines are a it's a this is not a kind of cutting edge technology, but it works. And especially in a in a straight as constrained as the Strait of Hormuz, it can work.

12:47Mojtaba Khamenei:And it worked for them in the 80s. And so one thing I'll just note, because I think it's worthy of conversation. in January, we actually retired our last four Avenger-class minesweepers and sent them back to the United States. I think that was a mistake. We do have minesweepers there, the literal combat ships with the minesweeping capabilities. So we have three of those there, or in the region, I should say. But it would be nice to have those. Those vessels were actually very effective. They were getting older, but they probably should have been continued, in my opinion.

13:21Tim Stenovec:Well, what do the mines look like? And are they are they completely underwater or do they float like buoys? Just help us understand this world. Yeah.

13:30Mojtaba Khamenei:So so the honest answer is it depends on the mine. So there's a different there's a bunch of different kinds of mines. Many of them will float subsurface and they'll and many of them are magnetic. So they will they will be attracted to a ship's hull. So if the ship passes nearby, the magnitation comes in. And then once it connects with the metal, then it explodes. So those are the most common. You do have smart mines as well. I don't know if the Iranians have any of those, but those are certainly existing technology. It wouldn't be surprising that it's essentially a mine that maybe has a little bit of smart technology that can.

14:09Mojtaba Khamenei:It's almost then in kind of ways like an undersea drone. And so but but they have a lot of mines. But again, we've been dealing with mines for at least 120 years in naval warfare. So this is a known challenge. Actually, those four Avenger-class minesweepers that were sent back to the United States from Bahrain are actually wood-hauled. Wow. And that's intentional because those magnetic mines don't go to the wood, right? So it's easier to minesweep. So I hope that helps. That does. Thank you.

14:42Carol Massar:Hey, is this another reminder or just indication that maybe the U.S. intelligence on everything that's going on in Iran? We had a great Bloomberg Big Take story that got into this about that maybe how the U.S. underestimated what Iran could do and its capabilities and how long it could do it. And is this another indication? I'd love to get your read on that.

15:10Mojtaba Khamenei:Yeah, we're really in the fog of war. So I would say we'll be able to answer that question in a couple of weeks, probably. So I think there's two alternative theories here. One is what you mentioned, which is there was an underestimation of the capability, particularly around the Stratel Formus, to use either very small craft, so not their Navy. Their Navy's gone, but use small craft or use land-based systems. And it's known that they probably have some anti-ship missiles that are already pre-positioned, even probably in caves along the coast, that northern coastline of the Strait of Hormuz. So it very well could be the case that we understood that our intelligence community underestimated that challenge.

15:50Mojtaba Khamenei:The alternative theory is that the U.S. military, both the Air Force and the Navy, have been focused on much higher level targets hitting out those missile launchers. And they've hit I mean, they've hit thousands. I think the count is up to 7000 targets now. And they're starting with the biggest ones that would be the mobile launchers or taking out some of the factories that would make some of those either drones or the or the or anti-ship missiles. So it might just be they didn't get down to the list of the smaller targets on the Strait of Hormuz. So that's the alternative theory. Which one ends up being the ground truth?

16:28Mojtaba Khamenei:It's honestly too early to tell, at least for me. I live in the unclassified zone, so I don't know. I don't know what I don't know, but I have a sense that it's one of those two kind of theories of the case.

16:39Tim Stenovec:You know, Rocky, we're kind of asking everybody how long they think that this will go on. And nobody knows, and especially those of us who are not in the classified world. But we've had estimates from guests today that range from several weeks up to four months. What's your view just on what's known publicly?

16:57Mojtaba Khamenei:OK, so I've been watching this very closely, as you both know. So I think we're probably talking weeks, unlikely months. I would be surprised if sort of combat operations aren't over by the end of April. I think what's interesting, it'll be very interesting to watch this in the lead up to Trump's visit with President Xi of China on March 31st. That's 19 days away. So what happens between now and then I think is going to be worth watching. But I do think that this will wrap up no later than the end of April, at least from a military perspective. At that point, I think this should be largely stabilized.

17:38Mojtaba Khamenei:I would be very surprised if at that point a combination of the United States Navy, the NATO navies and even the Asian navies, whether it's Japan or others, have secured the Strait of Hormuz.

17:50Carol Massar:Yeah. Yeah. We'll have to see. Right. You do wonder if it still becomes a little bit unease in the region. Rocky, thank you so much. Rocky Weitz, this is Bloomberg.

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17:59Tim Stenovec:Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.

18:07Mojtaba Khamenei:Support for the show comes from Public. Public is an investing platform that offers access to stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. And they've also integrated AI with tools that can assist investors in building customized portfolios. One of these tools is called Generated Assets. It allows you to turn your ideas into investable indexes. So let's say you're interested in something specific like biotech companies with high R &D spend, small cap stocks with improving operating margins, or the S &P 500 minus high debt companies. Chances are there isn't an ETF that fits your exact criteria. But on public, you just type in a prompt and their AI screens thousands of stocks and build a one of a kind index.

18:47Mojtaba Khamenei:You can even backtest it against the S &P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Go to public.com slash market and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash market. And paid for by Public Holdings. Brokered services by Public Investing, member FINRA SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, SEC Registered Advisor. Crypto services by ZeroHash. Sample prompts are for illustrative purposes only, not investment advice. All investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosures at public.com slash disclosures.

19:19Carol Massar:Being a small business owner isn't just a career. It's a calling. Chase for Business knows how much heart and effort go into building something of your own. That's why they make business growth their priority. The Chase team takes the time to understand your mission, where you are now, and where you want to go. Their broad range of solutions is designed with you in mind so you can bring your ideas to life. From banking to payment acceptance to credit cards, you can conveniently manage all your business finances all in one place with their digital tools. Looking for tips and advice? Their online resources are always available to give you the solutions you need to help your business thrive.

19:57Carol Massar:See how your business can get stronger and go farther with Chase for Business. Learn more at chase.com slash business. Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. Member FDIC. Copyright 2026. JPMorgan Chase and Company.

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21:15Carol Massar:You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. Hey, we did want to just kind of set up our next segment because just a day after U.S. corporate bond buyers lent the largest sum ever to America's companies, they quickly tightened the screws again as the war in Iran sent oil prices and credit risk gauges higher.

21:42Tim Stenovec:Salesforce drew tepid demand for a$25 billion bond sale intended to fund a share buyback amid lingering worries over the software sector's exposure to AI. By contrast, Amazon completed a two-day$54 billion equivalent debt raise to help fund its AI buildout. That company also upsizing a euro bond offering on Wednesday to 14.5 billion euros. It's around$16.7 billion US. That's just a day after selling$37 billion of bonds in the US market. Is your head spinning yet?

22:09Carol Massar:A small little issue there. All right, let's see what our next guest has to say about that and the credit markets overall. With us is Jason Greenblatt. He's vice president, senior portfolio manager, director of corporate credit research for American Century Investments, where he co-leads the corporate markets team, is a member of the Global Fixed Income Investment Committee. That means he's kind of important. He oversees more than$40 billion in AUM in fixed income assets. American Century, though, has about$327 billion as a firm overall in AUM. Welcome, welcome. Nice to have you here.

22:40Tim Stenovec:Thank you for having me. It's great to be here with you.

22:42Carol Massar:You know, it's interesting, before we got started, it's been quite a week already.

22:45Tim Stenovec:I'm exhausted. I'm trying to catch my breath coming into the studio. We had a record day on Tuesday. The pipes were flowing in investment-grade credit. Why? Why? Yeah, why in this environment? I think this was well telegraphed. So investors were ready for this. If you look at the demand for the Amazon deal, how many times over was it subscribed? Yesterday, we had Salesforce. Again, oversubscribed. Everyone was waiting for this. I think everything else that's been going on, whether it's AI, private credit, high yields, et cetera, the war, that's all still going around. But the pipes are flowing.

23:22Carol Massar:Why is, though, investors, like, the comfort with all of this? Like, I thought, you know, Salesforce was kind of an interesting thing, and this was to fund a share buyback. Was that the problem? Because I know when that headline crossed, when they were initially going to say that, we're like, what? This is what they're doing?

23:36Tim Stenovec:Or is it because it's Salesforce and it's seen as susceptible to AI disruption?

23:41Carol Massar:Yeah. I don't know. How are investors kind of weeding through?

23:44Tim Stenovec:I think if you look at their business model, folks are concerned, right? Share price is down. It's down by, what, 30%, 40 % from its highs. Like you said, share buyback, when you look at the leverage, the statistics, the credit metrics that we look at, doesn't look that bad. And then when you factor in the valuation that they printed at yesterday, it was coming at triple B, triple B minus levels. We have bonds in the market that much lower credit quality. This is single A rated today. Single A rated today. Maybe it gets downgraded a few years in the future, but it's trading today as if it was already downgraded.

24:20Tim Stenovec:All right.

24:21Carol Massar:So what is, are you seeking any stress within the credit markets and the debt markets?

24:25Tim Stenovec:So the pockets of stress that we're seeing, again, put the war aside because that's still fresh. Certainly BDCs, business development companies, private credit, can't turn on your Bloomberg terminal without seeing another headline of another fund seeing redemptions. That's certainly an area that we're very focused on and thinking about. Is there spillover? Is there spillover into CLOs, for example, broadly syndicated loans? Those go into CLOs. Two-thirds of CLOs own that broad market. We're watching that very closely. At what point would you be watching it and say, okay, yes, this is the official moment that there is spillover?

25:04Tim Stenovec:What would you see that would cause you to say that? So the redemptions that we're seeing in BDCs are one thing. Those are meant to be typically long-term investments where there are investors going in know that this is committed capital. I think when you start to see the publicly traded instruments, high yield bonds, high yield leverage loans that are more in the public market, even though some of those companies may be private, that they were LBO'd. When you start seeing large redemptions and liquidity events, that's when you say, oh, that's going to spill over and that's going to become a bigger problem for the credit markets.

25:41Carol Massar:Jason, if we start to see, I mean, if we continue to see rates kind of stay where they are, even potentially trend higher. Like, I do think about the rate environment a lot, right? This is what we've talked about with private credit, that deals done in a low-rate environment look good. And then, of course, when rates go higher, not so much. But if that rate environment, we continue to see rate pressures, do we start to see maybe more cracks emerge?

26:04Tim Stenovec:Yes and no. So the lower quality part of the cohort, those borrowers that really don't have a lot of cash flow, could be more susceptible. But I also think why are rates higher? Are they higher because of oil and what's going on with Iran? Yeah. Or are they higher because we're in a growth environment? If GDP is growing at 2%, 3 % this year, I think these companies are fine. And what we're seeing, back to your question before, why so much demand? Yield. Yield is pulling in capital. Last Monday, so a week and a half ago, right after the war broke out, it was a nothing event. We call it a nothing burger.

26:41Tim Stenovec:A nothing burger because spreads widened five basis points in investment grade. Yields were higher. It got bought. Monday was a day of disappointment. It wasn't a day of opportunity. So you were talking a little bit about how things have changed in the last few days. And if we think about the effect on consumers, the effect on the economy, I wonder how higher energy prices, gas prices up to what, 360 a gallon nationally average up from$3 just a little more than a week ago. Heating oil hitting$5 a gallon. If that hits consumers, what does that do to the US economy? It's the duration. How long does this last?

27:23Tim Stenovec:It's going to hit consumers. It's already, my 82-year-old mother is asking me the same question. How long is my gasoline prices, and my food price is going to be higher. What did you tell her? I said, well, let's see how long this lasts. If we have resolution in a few weeks, okay, that may not hurt you. But also keep in mind, we have seasonality to oil and gasoline. There's a summer blend. Typically we go higher as we go into the summer anyway. The question is the duration. How long does this last? How quickly can we get resolution? We had the discussion earlier this week about the duration, the impact of oil prices.

27:58Tim Stenovec:We're certainly not making a prediction on the duration of what's going on in the Middle East. But certainly thinking about the strategic reserves and the release, it doesn't really unclog the situation in terms of prices. It's not enough. It's only a handful of days worth of supply. And that's not going to, in our minds, reduce the price.

28:18Carol Massar:It gets back to the big question. Our last guest said best case, six weeks. Worst case, three to four months. That was his view. Do you have a best and worst case when you think about this environment and how long this goes on?

28:30Tim Stenovec:We're not that good on the politics side to say it's going to be in this time frame. What we can do is to stress test and say, these are the sectors. The consumer is going to be under pressure. We know. Let's be careful, confident. We underwrite our credits, our borrowers that we own. And if it goes on longer, who's next? So we know where the bullseye is, the center of the fallout. But let's think about the second and third order magnitudes.

28:56Carol Massar:I'm also curious. We had a story that said how U.S. borrowers, in fact, are rushing to take advantage of the still open capital markets before things potentially turn worse should the war escalate and oil prices increase further. Again, it's like the time we have to figure this out. Are you seeing that again? Like I think about what happened in the last week or so or just even this week about issues coming to market. Are you continuing to see that or expect that?

29:20Tim Stenovec:where it's the lowest quality part of the credit markets where there is some pause. So think low single B's, triple C's. Those were companies that probably needed to restructure anyway. I think when you look at the broadly syndicated loans, leveraged loans or even private credit, those are companies that tend to be smaller. Do they need access to capital? Not today. And we're also, we haven't talked about software. How about the software sector? Where does that spill over? Okay, perfect segue. where that's exactly what I want to talk about. Salesforce drawing that tepid demand for a$25 billion bond sale, perhaps lingering worries over the software sector's exposure to AI.

29:58Tim Stenovec:How do you view how vulnerable that entire sector is to just how quickly things are moving forward when it comes to this tech? You just said it, how quickly. So does it become an issue in months or years? I mean, the development of this is so quick. It's mind blowing. That's right. And there There are stories, there's research out there talking about default rates at 15%. One of your colleagues had on earlier the CEO of Hamilton Lane. And I thought what he said was really interesting. 15 % default rates is eye-opening. Is that cumulative or is it all in one year? Right? Does it happen instantaneously or does this happen over several years?

30:36Tim Stenovec:Right. Think back to the financial crisis, the high-yield market. We had default rates peak in November of 2009. Right? So even after we said there was the bottom in the market, that was less than 15%. So we're calling for, does it happen all at once? We don't think so. Does it happen cumulatively over time? It's too early to say. And then we think about the maturity profiles of those companies that may be in the center of the software bullseye. Those maturities are 2028, 29, 30. Why would they come to the market today when investors are running for the hills and making redemptions? Maybe they can wait till 2027 or 28 to address those maturities when we have more information.

31:20Carol Massar:So what's your advice to investors in this environment? Alaska's was more like play it safe, more cash, like be careful. And that was certainly talking about from the equity side and some different. How do you guys see it from the debt markets?

31:33Tim Stenovec:Yeah, so I would call it as this. We want to be nimble, meaning that you have liquidity. You want to nibble, but don't feast. This is not an environment when you look at broad index spreads. They're not screaming cheap. We're still at generational tights, 30-year tights in a lot of parts of the market, whether it's IG, high yield. I think you want to be really selective, and I think you want to trade this market. This isn't one where we want to buy a 30-year fill-in-the-blank from the last week or two of new issuance. and hold it for 30 years, we're going to take that concession, bonds that come cheap, let the spreads compress, sell them, and reload when there's a better opportunity.

32:13Carol Massar:I think we have to wrap. I know you both had a question.

32:16Tim Stenovec:I was just about Penn State. It's okay.

32:18Carol Massar:Jason Greenblatt, VP, Senior Portfolio Manager, Director of Corporate Credit Research for American Century. Thank you so much. Really appreciate it.

32:26Tim Stenovec:Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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35:44Carol Massar:You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube.

35:58Tim Stenovec:A story from the Wall Street Journal caught our attention today. It's about the gift that the Prime Minister of Ireland, the Taoiseach, is bringing to the White House for the annual St. Patrick's Day visit next week. $6.1 billion in planned investments.

36:10Carol Massar:That's a pretty nice gift. It is a nice gift. I'm going to say that the president's going to be pretty happy about that.

36:15Tim Stenovec:Michael Owen will also be in Washington. He's CEO of IDA Ireland. It's the country's foreign direct investment agency. He joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio. We do get to check in with you a couple times a year. It's a nice way to sort of understand your world, understand the macro environment. But it's different right now than it was just two weeks ago because of the U.S. war in Iran, the U.S. and Israel war in Iran. How does that change your world or the way you think about foreign direct investment?

36:43Mojtaba Khamenei:Yeah, so I think, well, good afternoon, Tim and Carol. Firstly, it's great to be back with you here in New York. So firstly, I think when we think about the change that's been occurring almost for the last number of years, but the pace of change and if you want to call it almost constant change. And of course, in the last number of weeks, we've seen that with the current conflict. And I think that's brought a new dynamic. If I'm honest, I would have been heavily engaged in the US in the first weeks of the year on the West Coast, meeting with C-suite and so forth. I think everyone had sort of got to a pattern and had understood how to manage investment and flows.

37:21Mojtaba Khamenei:And maybe I'll go back to where last year, we finished last year, actually, with the strongest level of FDI investment in the history of the state. So it's hard to believe as an FDI agency that we actually produced those numbers in a year where there was a substantial amount of turmoil and change. But why was that? And maybe what I think and reflect on that is say, okay, there's two things. First of all is when we look at the investment profiles that we won last year, it also represents two things. Firstly is existing companies continue to invest in stable locations and particularly so when maybe there's challenge and change.

37:58Mojtaba Khamenei:And we saw that and we're a beneficiary of that. And secondly, for new entrants looking to go into European markets, Ireland was a chosen location for those new entrants. So we saw all of our metrics and investment moving upwards last year by a factor of almost 36 % year on year, which was really, really strong. But I suppose, but now we're facing into a new dynamic. And that new dynamic, potentially, as we look at the conflict today, is what that dynamic is going to have on oil prices, how that's going to impact inflation. I remember in Europe, particularly in Europe, we felt that shock of inflation when the Ukraine war commenced.

38:36Mojtaba Khamenei:So in Europe, we've almost been through this in the last two to three years. And now we're almost having to face that again. But I think it's going to be probably a broader impact on the world economy to maybe the Ukrainian war was, which was really felt in Europe in the first instance. So I think those dynamics continue to be at play as we look forward.

38:53Carol Massar:I am curious, a couple of things I want to ask you. First of all, in terms of this war, the U.S. war in Iran, Michael, do you think it is a longer term problem and some longer term dynamics that are impacting the global economy? Even if, I don't know, just give us an idea of how you guys are looking at it.

39:12Mojtaba Khamenei:Yeah, well, look, I think it's very difficult to make that prediction at the moment, you know, because obviously we're just in week two. And so from an Ireland perspective, I think from a global investment perspective, one would hope that, you know, we'd see this come to a quick conclusion. We get dialogue, you know. What's a quick? Is it another week or two? Well, I think hopefully it is because ultimately the longer this goes on, the more uncertainty it brings, the more challenge it brings for all of our economies. Let's be honest, the more impact it's going to have on the civilian casualties and civilian life in the region as well.

39:45Mojtaba Khamenei:And remember, it's not just in one country, it's actually across the region is where the challenge is as well. And we're very conscious of that. And in Ireland, I think, you know, we also are very clear in our own history of, you know, having conflict within your own island. You know, and we knew what it was to come through that conflict and get to resolution. That's why we're very focused on we need to get to resolution in conflicts because that's what brings prosperity. And we in Ireland are an absolute shying example of how, if you want to call it dialogue and negotiation, get you to a point of prosperity and growth.

40:18Tim Stenovec:I'm trying to understand how in a world where you saw countries increasingly turn inward and tariff barriers go up, you saw foreign direct investment increase at such a level. Was it because the investment was coming less from U.S. companies, more from companies that were not U.S.-based?

40:35Mojtaba Khamenei:Yeah, so it's an interesting question. I think it's a really valid question. So if I look at the breakdown of our investments last year, remember, before I start there, the largest cohort of FDI investment in Ireland is US investment. So our largest install base is US investment. And actually 70 % of our investments came from the install base. So the US continued to be...

40:57Tim Stenovec:So it was the companies that were there spending more.

40:59Mojtaba Khamenei:Yeah, spending more. And what were they doing? They were diversifying in terms of products and services. They were investing heavily in research and innovation, which is really deepening in Ireland. And also they were investing in capital for sustainability and productivity. So about productivity gains as well. And the last thing I'll say is that we also had 30 % of our investments last year, just under 80 investment, were first time investments into Ireland. And over 50 % of those first time investments actually came from the United States. So it continues to be because U.S. companies that look to internationalize, they have to go to international markets.

41:36Mojtaba Khamenei:They want to go into Europe and Ireland is a gateway to Europe.

41:39Carol Massar:So, Michael, is this just part of when we think about global supply chains? We learned this off of COVID. It's just an increase in people spreading out their global supply chains, making sure they have access in markets where they're operating. Is that what that's about?

41:52Mojtaba Khamenei:I think there's a few things, Carol. I think that's one. I think market access is important. I also think access to international talent is important. Because remember, if you have a company that wants to grow and internationalise, it needs human capital to do so. And no nation, no matter where they are, has all the human capital that's going to support that. So I think that also comes. I think the third area then is risk mitigation within supply chain or within organisation, as people look to make sure that they build robust, I suppose, businesses and enterprises that serve global markets and can do that from different points in the world.

42:25Mojtaba Khamenei:So I think there's a combination of factors.

42:27Tim Stenovec:So we're so focused in the U.S., and I'm sure you are in Ireland, too, on AI and the capex that these companies, the hyperscalers are spending when it comes to this and also the money that these startups are raising. What are you seeing in terms of AI-related investment from U.S. companies in Ireland? In Ireland, yeah.

42:45Mojtaba Khamenei:So I think in Ireland, we were a very early adopter of digital infrastructure, you know, data centers.

42:50Tim Stenovec:And look, there's a reason you spent a lot of time in Silicon Valley. A lot of sort of like web 2.0 companies early on, like when Facebook was called Facebook. Correct. Like one of its first offices outside the US was in Ireland.

43:03Mojtaba Khamenei:Correct. Remember when, and you're correct, when Facebook came to Ireland, Facebook was only a small fledgling company, you know. And today, you know, are a very different company, you know, with thousands of employees in Ireland. Like the same, when we look at those large companies. So if you think about the Microsofts, the IBMs, you know, all have very strong enterprises in Ireland and invested in digital infrastructure and indeed in AI capability and research. But also the new entrants to OpenAI, the Anthropics, you know, the Claude AI, all have established in Ireland as well. So we have that cohort of both the large established and the innovation that's happening, but also those new entrants coming into the European market and global markets and Ireland being their location of time.

43:44Mojtaba Khamenei:Do you want data centres in Ireland? We do.

43:46Tim Stenovec:Because in the US, it's kind of a mix in different communities. It's tense, yeah. Power costs can go up. They don't necessarily provide a lot of jobs because in the beginning when they're built, they do, but then they kind of run by themselves.

43:58Mojtaba Khamenei:So I think in Ireland, as I said, we were an early adopter of data centers, of digital infrastructure. We're very clear that there is a challenge in terms of data centers globally, and I think we shouldn't ignore that. The challenge is to actually meet the energy demand with the demand for the digital transition. But they actually go hand in hand. Digital transition can't happen without an energy transition and a sustainable energy transition. And in Ireland, we have actually put those strategies together. So we're actually looking in Ireland in terms of increasing our generation capacity by fivefold.

44:31Mojtaba Khamenei:And how we're going to do that is actually through renewables. Offshore wind in particular, onshore wind and solar continue to be the driving force in terms of bringing that energy reliability into the industry. No nuclear? No, we don't have nuclear. Do you not want nuclear? Well, that's a debate in Ireland. We won't have it today. I don't think the program will be long enough. But it is something. It's a debate here too. It is a debate everywhere. But we are strengthening the resilience on our greed in Ireland as well.

44:59Carol Massar:You are headed to D.C. Investments that you guys are making in the United States. What is it like dealing with this White House? Yes.

45:10Mojtaba Khamenei:So I think when we look at it from our perspective, this week and I suppose the events next week, sorry, in D.C. are so critically important for Ireland. And like it's a longstanding relationship between Ireland and the U.S. You know, it goes deeper than a week in March. You know, it's a lot deeper than that. There's ties, you know, at a social level, at an economic level. And just to say a few things on this, it's to recognise, I think, that relationship between our two nations. it's also I think to celebrate the fact that Ireland is now the fifth largest investor in the United States of America which is probably it just shows you the evolution that Ireland economy has been on and we're very understand we actually appreciate and understand the investment of US companies into Ireland is the reason why we're now the fifth largest investor because we've had those spillover effects in terms of the FDI input the growth of your economy So it's like the rising tides.

46:06Mojtaba Khamenei:It lifts all boats. And I think in Ireland, we're very proud of how we have that integration of our indigenous companies and our FDI companies working collectively to bring economic benefit to both the island of Ireland and indeed the companies which they serve. And those companies are not just Irish companies. They're also international and US companies. When are we getting on the road and going to Ireland and doing our remote broadcast? I ask.

46:29Carol Massar:I ask. Every time. Every time. Well, I give you an opportunity.

46:32Mojtaba Khamenei:We're hosting, we're taking over the EU presidency this year for the second six months of this year. We're hosting an AI and digital conference summit in Ireland in October. So if ever there was an opportunity to have Tim and Carol in Dublin, it's October. Are the bosses listening?

46:50Carol Massar:I hope so. Michael, thank you. Appreciate it. Michael Lowe in there. CEO of IDA Ireland. Safe travels. This is Bloomberg. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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49:31Mojtaba Khamenei:international investments, the WISE multi-currency account is for you. Be smart. Get WISE. Download the WISE app today or visit WISE.com. Terms and conditions apply.

From the publisher

The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy.
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

Iran’s new supreme leader said the Strait of Hormuz should remain shut and Tehran will look to open other fronts in the war if the US and Israel persist with their attacks.

In his first public comments since succeeding his father at the weekend, Mojtaba Khamenei said the Islamic Republic would seek to ensure the critical waterway for oil and gas stays effectively closed — maintaining a choke on supplies that’s triggered a surge in global energy prices.

His statement — published on state media on Thursday — came as US President Donald Trump said preventing Iran from having nuclear weapons and being a threat to the Middle East is “of far greater interest and importance to me” than the cost of oil.The defiance shown by both leaders indicates that the war in the Middle East isn’t close to a de-escalation after almost two weeks of fighting. Israel launched a fresh wave of large-scale strikes across Iran on Thursday, while the Islamic Republic stepped up attacks on Dubai and shipping assets.

Today's show features:

  • Jennifer Welch, Bloomberg Economics Chief Geoeconomics Analyst
  • Rockford Weitz, Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Professor of Practice & Director of the Maritime Studies Program
  • Jason Greenblath, American Century Investments Senior Portfolio Manager
  • Michael Lohan, CEO of IDA Ireland

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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