Israel Says Strike Killed Iran’s Larijani as War Intensifies

22:46Carol Massar:This is going to take some time to unravel. So talk to us about those longer term implications. When you say it's going to take a while, how long, Ellen? Are we talking a few months? Are we talking six months? Are we talking a year? I mean, I think that the markets are incredibly resilient at rerouting things. So I think that we will see markets take the most efficient and best ways to sort things out. But the real test is going to be the extent of the damage. How long is it going to take to get these oil facilities? We don't know how much more is going to be damaged. We're still in the phase of Iran has the capability to destroy and damage oil production in its neighbors.

23:27Carol Massar:And we don't know how much, you know, how much more damage it's going to do. The more damage it does, the longer it will take to, you know, to recover from this. So, yes, six months, I say, is probably a minimum. What's more problematic? Some of those other Middle Eastern targets or oil operations in Iran. And I only bring that up because the president did reiterate that the U.S. could knock out oil on Karg Island, adding that it hasn't done so yet because of how long it would take to rebuild it. Nation previously bombed military targets on the key Iranian export hub, but spared its oil infrastructure.

24:04Carol Massar:If indeed that happened, what would that do to energy markets short and longer term? I think that energy markets are really operating in general without accounting for Iranian oil. So if all Iranian oil is off the market, I don't think that that's going to push prices up all that much because, you know, it's really just China that is buying Iranian oil anyway. So, you know, China is probably going to buy more Russian oil to account for a loss in Iranian oil or it will buy oil from elsewhere. It would be great to have that oil available for the market and also for Iran when it's in some kind of rebuilding stage.

24:44Carol Massar:But if that oil is off the market, I don't think that is going to have the biggest impact. Ellen, if we are indeed a net exporter of oil, I think a lot of people have this misconception about what it means to be energy independent when a conflict many thousands of miles away that cuts off 20 % supply of the world's oil has such dramatic effect on West Texas Intermediate. Can you explain that connection for people? Yeah, exactly. I mean, oil is a global commodity and it's priced globally. So even though we don't really import all that much from Persian Gulf countries at the moment, what happens anywhere to oil impacts the price at home.

25:25Carol Massar:Now, that doesn't mean that we're going to see shortages. I don't think we are in danger of seeing shortages of any sort. But because most of the price of gasoline is the price of the barrel of oil, we are impacted by the fact that, you know, when prices rise because of any kind of global incident, we are going to feel that at home. Is there a way, though, for the U.S. to become more energy independent if we do, in the words of the president, drill more here in the United States? But or is the challenge, you know, the oil that we extract here, the oil that, you know, maybe we'll get from Venezuela is not necessarily the oil that we are.

26:04We can be using or we can be refining. Right.

26:08Carol Massar:I think that the best way to insulate the United States from the kind of price fluctuations that we're seeing is actually to become more oil interdependent. And I think that we do that by strengthening our connections within North America. One of the biggest reasons why we aren't feeling these impacts beyond just in the price of gasoline and the price of diesel is that we have such a great interface with Canada. Most of our oil imports right now actually come from Canada. And so if we can strengthen our interdependence as part of the North American oil ecosystem, then we are either even better insulated.

26:45Carol Massar:The other way to do that is to do more refining and to produce more diesel here in the United States, produce more gasoline. California, for example, can only use gasoline that is produced and refined in California. Well, that needs to change or California needs to have more refineries. The more that we can can have our own refineries and the more that we can do that, the better insulated we can be from global issues. And also the more we can help assist. You know, I mean, we we started this war in a sense, and we have the capability to assist other countries that are more impacted by it. And if we produce more at home and we produce more products, we can help other countries more by exporting.

27:29Carol Massar:Ellen, you mentioned Canada. I don't know if you've seen any of the stories over the last year, but we're having some troubles with that relationship, certainly with this White House. Having said that, I do think about the administration and how they do think about national security, and that includes energy security. Does this somehow grease the wheels, no pun intended, in terms of that relationship, the U.S. and Canada, to kind of figure out something a little bit more constructive? I think it absolutely should, because the better relations we can have with Canada, the more ease of transportation of goods, services, but also the things that we need to build oil infrastructure will be better.

28:09Carol Massar:Canada really has no choice but to export a lot of its oil through the United States. The United States technically imports that oil and then a lot of it is also exported or used in the US. Now they do have the option to export via ports in Vancouver. But the more that we can work with Canada and build more infrastructure and do more exchanges, the better those relations will be and the more flexibility we'll have in terms of gasoline and energy prices in general. One distinction I want to make, because we have a great story out on the Bloomberg, too, about just reminding us that U.S. diesel rose above$5 a gallon for the first time since December of 2022 because of what we are seeing, the surging oil prices amid the war and disruption in the Middle East.

28:53Carol Massar:We talk about diesel, its role in freight, agriculture, construction industries. And so everybody's kind of trying to juggle and manage that. What do we need to understand? I mean, we talk about energy as this bucket, but there are different pieces within that bucket. Absolutely. And one of the reasons the diesel prices are surging is because we didn't have a lot of diesel in storage. And so we haven't had that cushion to kind of fall back on, whereas in terms of gasoline, we have have more. We had more in storage and so we have more cushion to fall back on. But rises increases in diesel prices are really what reverberates throughout the economy.

29:32Carol Massar:And that's really where we will see the people who aren't buying diesel gasoline might not necessarily feel it at the pump. But diesel is what's used in trucking. It's what's used in construction. And so we will feel those increases in other ways in the economy, increases in grocery prices, for example, and other goods that need to be transported. I mean, our trucking is, I would say, the lifeblood of this country. I mean, everything is transported via trucking, essentially. And so we're going to feel that in the economy in a variety of ways. Yeah. And I think, Carol, a complicated time, to say the least, for a midterm election.

30:11But we think, right? For an administration that has been so focused on affordability. Dr. Ellen Wald, always great to see you. Thanks so much for joining us on Bloomberg Business Week Daily. Ellen Wald is president of Transversal Consulting. She's senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. She's the author of Saudi, Inc. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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31:34Carol Massar:Small businesses are the pulse of every community. They bring people together, create opportunities, and drive growth. With a widespread presence in communities across the country, Chase for Business supports small business owners at a local level. That makes it possible for you to connect, learn from each other, and grow together. There's a real commitment to seeing small businesses succeed. The Chase for Business team has knowledge and expertise that span a wide range of financial areas. They can help you make more informed decisions as you navigate the complexities of running your business.

32:05Carol Massar:They'll help your business grow with individual guidance and convenient digital tools all in one place. With that guidance and your determination, you can take your business farther and help build a brighter future for your community. Learn more at chase.com slash business. Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. Member FDIC. Copyright 2026. JPMorgan Chase and Company. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvind Krishna, and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business?

32:51My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example? If anybody has more than 10 % of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind it. if anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30 % more productive today with the goal of being 70 % more productive. Yeah, wow. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say, you can leverage what we did. We are happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology.

33:37It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit ibm.com slash smarttalks.

34:11Well, it is day two of NVIDIA's developer conference, and NVIDIA GTC is what it's called. It's happening in San Francisco. NVIDIA CEO making some comments right now at a press conference. He says, this is Jensen Wong, he says, buy back his dividends to be a very large number. He also says that Grok, that's Grok with a Q, not Grok with a K, as Ed Ludlow talked to us about yesterday, could add 25 % to data center opportunity. Some other headlines include HPE announces that HPE AI grid is powered by NVIDIA.

34:43Carol Massar:On those buybacks, he says he sees the shift to buybacks dividends in the second half. Okay. So a little bit more in terms of that. Let's bring in Mandeep Singh. He's Bloomberg Intelligence Global Head of Technology Research. He joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio. Between the 4 and 5 o 'clock hour yesterday, Mandeep, after markets closed, this slew of announcements came out about different partnerships that NVIDIA had with different companies. That happens every few months at these GTCs, whether it's in San Jose in March or back in October, I believe, in Washington, D.C.

35:14What are the most important partnerships that have been announced? I mean, look, they're trying to expand the ecosystem. And they want to convey to the street that it's not just about the data centers, but also about autonomous vehicles with the Uber and Lyft partnership. And actually, those stocks were up today. So physical AI is a big theme for NVIDIA. And their whole thing is we are a systems company. Don't treat us like a chip provider who is just supplying the GPUs. We do end-to-end systems. But how much do they make from just the chips versus how much they make from these other markets? I mean, right now it's all data center driven.

35:54Exactly. And the idea is that they want to show that there's this physical AI or these robots that are going to be folding our clothes and doing our dishes. And that's going to be powered by NVIDIA. You cover Uber and Lyft. You cover ride sharing. Is there a future there for NVIDIA inside these cars? I mean, it's a moonshot for me. And all these hyperscalers have moonshots. In the case of Alphabet, we know Waymo has paid off, but it took more than 10 years for that to get to a certain point. So from that perspective, I think it's still ambitious in terms of revenue generating opportunity. But look, I think that's what you can do as a CEO is to say that you have technology that is pervasive, that is not too niche.

36:41And NVIDIA has proven, you know, the fact that they're guiding to trillion dollars in revenue through 2027 is a testament to the fact that they have expanded the addressable market in a big way.

36:54Carol Massar:Address that number because we did see the stock pop in the aftermarket on it. And then it pulled back again. And all of us were kind of like searching through and like reminding us about what they've said. Was that a big upgrade in terms of their forecast or not really? It certainly is from a growth perspective. 2027 growth numbers, consensus numbers are at least 5 % above where consensus was based on this one trillion guide. The reason why they are not getting the credit from investors right now is because it's all driven by NVIDIA's supply agreements. They have locked in TSMC supply. I would argue if Google GPUs have more supply, they would be growing faster too.

37:37So right now, because the market is so supply constrained, if NVIDIA is saying they have locked in 70 % of TSMC's wafer capacity, well, guess what? Anyone else who wants to make a chip cannot make a chip because there is no supply of TSMC wafer. That's amazing.

37:56Carol Massar:70%. Yes. Wow. That's amazing. And they prepaid$95 billion, NVIDIA did. If you look at their just recently reported quarter, they had$95 billion in prepaid commitments to their suppliers, notably TSMC and some of the memory guys. So they own it, and it's harder for everybody else. I would argue Google TPU is a very close second to NVIDIA. The problem is they cannot ramp up supply. So explain how that constricts a company like Broadcom or AMD. So Broadcom also guided$400 billion in revenue for 2027, which is why I think NVIDIA gave that 2027 number. So Broadcom says$100 billion, NVIDIA says a trillion?

38:42Trillion through 2027. So if you kind of do the back of the envelope math, it equates to about$500 billion in revenue for 2027. So from a ratio perspective, Broadcom and NVIDIA are currently at, you know, Broadcom has a 10 to 15 % market share. NVIDIA has almost 75%. And then you have AMD. That ratio is still more or less in line in 2027. And that's why they guided to that. But the$500 billion extra figure, does that imply no growth then in the industry that year? Or for NVIDIA that year? if they're bringing in$500 billion this year in that category, in$500 billion next year? No, so right now they're at a$215 billion run rate in data centers.

39:28In 2026, it goes to$375 billion. So that's like a 70%. And then for 2027, it gets to$500 billion, which is another 35 % growth. So their growth is still astronomical when you think about a company of this scale growing at 70 % and then 35%. that's phenomenal. So there's nothing to take away from, you know, what they are doing in terms of execution and how they're ramping up. But partly that has to do with how well they have managed the supply chain. It's like the Apple days, you know, when Apple was ramping up iPhones, they had a lock on the supply chain. Similarly, you see that with NVIDIA. They have managed the supply chain extremely well in an environment where everyone is supply constrained.

40:17NVIDIA did a great job of managing that.

40:19Carol Massar:Mandeep, in terms of NVIDIA putting that lock on the supply chain, is that because the visibility and the actual orders, they're there? I keep wondering how much are they kind of locking in just to make sure they own it and have it as the demand comes in? How much are they guaranteed actually comes to fruition? Well, they have the best performing chip. And that's why I said it's really a tight race between NVIDIA and Google TPUs. everyone else is behind. And so from that perspective, the fact that hyperscalers are still 60 % of NVIDIA's$500 billion revenue in 2027 just goes to show that there is no other place to go.

41:00If Meta wants to add AI infrastructure capacity, they have to get NVIDIA chips. Same thing, even Google with their TPUs is a big NVIDIA customer. Why? Because that's the only way to add AI infrastructure capacity, not with their own TPUs. They cannot make more TPU chips. So that's why all these hyperscalers are still such a big chunk of NVIDIA.

41:23Carol Massar:It's pretty remarkable, right? Yeah, I'm looking at... In terms of really no competition, right? Or at least they're not in the position of where NVIDIA is at this point. I think that supply factor is huge. If DSMC was to somehow raise their supply of chips, then I think Google TPUs has a shot at really ramping up faster. But until that happens... Are they not doing that or they can't do that? You can see TSMC's CapEx for 2026. And all the CapEx, it takes about 18 months to ramp up a fab for it to be online. So this is, you know, the lead times are quite long when it comes to ramping up supply of TSMC's manufacturing capacity.

42:07Just a few of the headlines of partnerships. Salesforce teams with NVIDIA on AI agents, Hyundai, Kia, NVIDIA, Expand Autonomous Driving Partnership, IBM announces Expanded Pack with NVIDIA, Salesforce, I mentioned, STMicroelectronics to partner with NVIDIA. The headlines go on, HPE unveils AI factory supercomputing advancements with NVIDIA. Does everybody want to work with NVIDIA? I mean, if you have a 75 % market share in one of the fastest growing areas in the enterprise market, and everyone sees it's going to be a trillion dollar market, then yeah, you go with that 75%. Here's one. L 'Oreal expands AI partnership with NVIDIA.

42:50Carol Massar:I think it's just one. L 'Oreal. They're planning to use 50 % of free cash flow for investor returns. Is that smart when they say they're going to do buybacks, dividends? It is the Apple playbook. To me, Apple did exactly that in terms of, you know, being shareholder friendly with their buybacks and reducing the share count. You're seeing that. Such great stuff. As always, Mandeep Singh of our Bloomberg Intelligence team. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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45:06Carol Massar:Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. Member FDIC. Copyright 2026. JPMorgan Chase and Company. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvind Krishna. And I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business? My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example? If anybody has more than 10 % of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind.

45:58If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30 % more productive today with the goal of being 70 % more productive. Yeah. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology. It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit ibm.com slash smarttalks.

46:39You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. Let's bring in Samantha Dart. She's co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs. She joins us from New York City. Samantha, good to have you on the program. We talk a lot about gas prices and how they're up about a dollar just going back to a little over a month ago. But you have a note out talking about other refined products. We're talking jet fuel. We're talking heating oil and diesel, for example.

47:16Why are other refined products more affected than traditional gasoline prices with this shock? Yeah, the majority of the crude that you're missing from the Middle East is heavy crude. And that type of crude tends to produce more of what they call the dirtier products. So you're a diesel, you're a jet fuel, fuel oil. So you end up with a production of those refined products in particular more impacted and losing more barrels than gasoline at the margin. So Jet Fuel, I think, is the best example of that with prices skyrocketing.

47:58Carol Massar:Yeah, I always think this is important when we dig. And we did a little bit of this with an earlier guest, Ellen Wald. But just like understanding, again, we go, we talk about commodities, we talk about energy, we throw everything into the same kind of bucket, if you will, but understanding the distinctions and differences in terms of how it can impact our world. Talk a little bit more about this. And when it comes to refined oil products, where it's all coming from, how it gets around the world, and certainly how it can affect the global economy and specifically the U.S. economy. Yeah. On one hand, you have this outright supply of a lot of these products from the Middle East that is not crossing through the strait, right?

48:36So, for example, a lot of your Asia natta comes from the Persian Gulf. A lot of your European jet fuel comes from the Persian Gulf. But I think in addition to that, because you're also losing a lot of crude supplies from that same region, you end up losing your ability to produce additional barrels of those products, whether it is in Asia or Europe or in other places. And because these products are widely traded, what we end up seeing is that product prices, from gasoline to diesel to jet fuel, they go up everywhere. Because you end up, if it's cheaper here than there, you end up trading and moving those products around so that you equalize the price.

49:25So even though certain regions are more directly impacted by the volumes not crossing the straight at the moment, your marginal increase to product prices, they end up impacting all the regions. You know, I'm looking at the futures curve on the Bloomberg terminal right now in terms of where we think or where traders rather think that at least WTI is going to go over the next few months. what's your prediction in terms of, OK, if there is some sort of ceasefire, if the Strait of Hormuz opens, how quickly and where will oil prices get down to? Yeah, think about it this way. I think there are two key variables here.

50:06One are the volumes that we're losing every day and to the market perception of the duration of this conflict. The volumes we're losing are still extremely high. We have barely anything crossing the straight at the moment. And even taking into account the IEA Strategic Petroleum Reserves release that was announced last week, we end up with north of 10 million barrels a day of oil and products that we're missing every day. So that's one. But the second component that goes straight to what you just said is that market perception of duration. And the more concerned the market becomes, that's when you tend to see your brand prices cross$100 a barrel.

50:50That's the signal that it sends because you can only destroy demand more significantly once you're above that threshold. You don't historically, we haven't seen much of a response below$100 a barrel. So we're now seeing, you probably saw the headline of SAS curtailing flights because they probably can't pass through such an uptick in jet fuel prices to consumers. So that's the signal that the market is sending. So to your point, if you have, let's say, a ceasefire tomorrow, the signal that sends is, then maybe the disruption through the strait is not going to last much longer. It's going to take, OK, a few weeks to restart refineries, restart oil production.

51:35But of the need of destroying demand that goes down and then you can give up a lot of your risk premium. You could, you know, just as easily as you've gone above one hundred dollars a barrel for Brent, you could be back in the low 80s. Right.

51:52Carol Massar:Demand destruction can certainly happen. Hey, one of the things I think about, Samantha, coming out of this war, we hope sooner rather than later that there is an end to the U.S. war in Iran and Israel pulls back as well, their involvement. Is there something different that we're going to see in terms of national security moves when it comes to energy supplies and maybe things being built out closer to home where they can be? Is there something longer term that happens in terms of the energy, global energy supply chain? I think that's such an important point. And it's not just what's happening now.

52:28I think since the COVID shock, we've seen how we can be vulnerable to supply chain disruptions that was followed by the European energy crisis in 21. And now we have this conflict that is creating a lot of disruption worldwide. So I think you're absolutely right. This ends up incentivizing, I think, the widespread build-out of strategic reserves, initiatives like Project Vault in the US or the strategic reserves build-out that we saw in China even last year. I think we're likely to see more of those initiatives exactly because countries are likely to try at least to become more self-sufficient.

53:12You look at Europe today, for example, almost 50 % of Europe's energy consumption is still covered by imports.

53:20Carol Massar:Yeah, right. I mean, it's just tremendous. And you think about to certainly Asia, China, we talk about this a lot. I wonder if in terms as you guys game out scenarios longer term, do you see a world where global energy markets Iran is not really factored in because of some of the restrictions, right? In terms of where it can go. Is there a world where Iran is a part of that global mix? You know, it's really hard for us to say what we do best, I think, is count the barrels and work the scenarios of how pricing can respond to different supply availability. So right now, Iranian cargoes are pretty much the only ones crossing the trade and not even the usual number of tankers.

54:08So we'll continue to look through how that crossing evolves, what's available to the market and work through the scenarios. You know, I want to just talk about domestic production a little bit. And, you know, commodity, our own commodities, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst likes to say the cure for high prices is high prices. But with the oil industry, it's not as easy as just producing more, especially if it involves infrastructure. And I'm wondering how higher prices here in the U.S. affecting consumers might make production change in the U.S. or cause companies in the U.S. to invest more in production like the president wants to see.

54:53Is this enough of a supply shock to do that? Or does it seem so short-lived that companies will not make the capex investments to increase production? So firstly, I would say that your last point, I think, is exactly right. Usually we see lack of investment in supply reflected in a back end of the forward curve that rises and rises and that signals the need for additional long-term investment. These things can't be built overnight. But I would say given the rally that we've seen in oil so far, what we've seen is that a lot of oil companies in the U.S. have hedged. So you see at the margin a little bit of an increased incentive for growing production, but that's not overnight either.

55:43I mean, we like to call shale short cycle supply because it doesn't take years to show up. It takes months, but we're still talking six, nine, 12 months to see that show up.

55:53Carol Massar:All right. I don't know if I can do this with the co-head of Global Commodities Research, but I'm going to go ahead and do it anyway. Samantha, should we be talking? Do you guys talk about, as a result of this, it's a reminder that it's good to have different forms of energy. And I think about alternative energy, which has taken a major backseat. Certainly, it feels like with this administration, I know Europe and the world thinks differently in terms of alternative forms. But do you do you factor that in about how this war again is reminding us that it's good to have different forms of where our energy comes from?

56:29No, but again, I think you're exactly on point. So, for example, let's look at China. China dominates in a lot of metals production and refining, but not so much in oil and gas. They are net short oil. They are net short gas. So what did China do? They invested a lot in EVs domestically. So you're shifting your demand towards electricity because electricity you can produce. And to produce electricity, they are relying again on what they have, which is coal. They can produce it and stockpile it and renewables as well. So if you turn to places, again, like Europe, Europe has some oil and gas as well, no question, but those reserves are not growing.

57:11So by investing in more renewables, yes, they can become a little bit more resilient. The only thing is they shouldn't shut down their alternatives.

57:20Carol Massar:Samantha, we got to run. We got to continue this in the future. Samantha Dart over at Goldman Sachs. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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59:00Carol Massar:Context changes constantly. And now Bloomberg is the place to stay on top of it all. Hi, I'm David Gurra. Join us every Saturday and Sunday for the new Bloomberg This Weekend. I'm Christina Ruffini. We'll bring you the latest headlines, in-depth analysis, and big interviews. All the stories that hit home on your days off. And I'm Lisa Mateo. Watch and listen to Bloomberg This Weekend for thoughtful, enlightening conversations about business, lifestyle, people, and culture. On Saturday mornings, we put the past week's events into context, examining what happened in the markets and the world. Then on Sundays, we speak with journalists, columnists, and key political figures to prepare you for the week ahead.

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