Kushner’s Affinity Withdraws From Warner Bros. Takeover Battle

21:38Carol Massar:Chris, you know, after the Jamie Dimon cockroach comment that there were many members in the private world that came out, or a few, I should say, that came on our air, and that seemed to say, hey, listen, things are fine. And I understand many would say that they're talking in their book. But are they systemic risks? What's the exposure with the traditional financial sector when it comes to the private markets? Because I think that's what we care most about, right? No, I think the private players can fail tomorrow. It will cause a bit of kerfuffle and volatility in the markets. But are they systemic like a big bank?

22:16No, but the big banks will take their lumps too because they are lending indirectly into these structures. They tend to take the most senior positions, but that may not save them. You see, the assumption that, okay, I'm senior and three-quarters of the stack is below me, and therefore I'm okay, that may not work this time around because you have leverage on leverage on leverage in some of these deals.

22:40Carol Massar:So when the big banks report again, we're getting ready for another earnings cycle, right? We'll get that in early January. So what do we look for, for things like that? What do you look for? The numbers are going to be wonderful. That's what worries me. Just as an analyst, we were supposed to have a recession last year. Credit losses largely peaked last year, third, fourth quarter. They've been coming down since then. So if you look at the picture, you say, God, everything is great. You don't see a lot of utilization. You don't see a lot of demand from the banks for credit. They've got a ton of unused credit out there that they wish people would use.

23:18But so you don't see stress in the published numbers. Where you see stress is when you talk to professionals, when you read the really interesting media like Bloomberg and others that cover some of these stories. There was a great piece in the FT over the last week talking about Altus, a company that Jamie Dimon came to the rescue of, paid off their most restrictive loans so that they could go out and borrow more money. And all the credit guys that you're talking about looked at Jamie Dimon and they're going, hello, what are you doing? Yeah. So he's an enabler of bad behavior because Jamie has to go out and make money too in a market where there isn't a lot of what I would call quality demand.

24:00Carol Massar:Which reminds me of what would happen in the great financial crisis of people saying, I know it's getting messy and ugly. But there was it the CEO of Citi at the time, I think, who came out and made some comment about, I got to be in it. Oh, no, that's right. Yeah, that was the temporary CEO who replaced John Reed. But I'm just saying this idea of feeling like you have to be in it, the pressure of it. Yes and no. I think that some institutions have the common sense to pull back and say no. Others don't. I'll give you an example, PNC. PNC has the lowest loss rate in the top seven banks. They've also got one of the lowest funding costs.

24:42That's a fairly well-run half trillion dollar bank that has managed to avoid risk, I think, often by saying no. The street wanted them to get more involved in certain things like prime brokerage, dealing with private equity funds, that sort of thing. And they said no. So I think there are institutions that are very well run in this market. But again, the banks are underutilized because the non-bank financial companies have stolen their march and they're going to the customer and they're using wholesale funding from the big banks. And they're in turn disintermediating them at the same time. Chris, we want to talk a little bit about AI too in the time that we have left.

25:20We've talked about it with you before. Circular financing, we're not sure how it all plays out in the economy and what it has to do with productivity and with economic growth. Weighing in on AI and its potential economic impact, Ken Griffin of Citadel, speaking with Bloomberg's Danny Berger a little earlier today at a conference in Paris. Check out what he said. I think there is some chance that we will see meaningful progress in this field that will change the calculation or calculus that I'm setting forth. There are so many bright people in their 20s and 30s trying to unlock, trying to unlock true intelligence, that this does create the environment in which a breakthrough may happen.

26:02But I think that generative AI, as we know today, will have a very pointed but relatively limited impact on the broader economy. A pointed but relatively limited impact on the broader economy. Ken Griffin of Citadel earlier today. What, in your view, is the impact of AI on this economy? I think it's incremental, better search tools. We're writers. So is he right? I think he is right. And frankly, I read a lot of the long-haired stuff on AI, some of the people in the scientific community. And they tell you the same thing because this is the third or fourth, fifth time that we have talked about AI.

26:39You go back to the 70s and the 80s. It's not new. Remember Watson, IBM, which was a fiasco. But it was their way of showing what new technology could do. But is it creating general intelligence? No. So is all this a waste? Is all this a waste? No, it's marketing. Yeah, but that's a lot to spend on marketing.

26:58Carol Massar:But the spend, yeah. But look, everything in the US economy is about marketing, okay? It doesn't matter what it is. And if it's attached to a stock, then you know it's marketing. NVIDIA, I've made a ton of money on NVIDIA. I'm very grateful to Mr. Wang. But is he gonna change the world? No. What we're doing is building a lot of infrastructure. We're spending a ton of money, not so much on building AI, but preparing to have the capacity to do it, mostly by studying the past. To me, that's not AI. AI is when a machine can start to observe what's around it and react and determine what to do next based on what it sees.

27:37Not because it's studied our language for the last 50 years.

27:41Carol Massar:So the whole idea of AI is all the data that's put in from the past. You think that, okay, that's your take. It's all we have. Well, are you still in NVIDIA? No, I got out. I got out. I wrote it up, it split. I wrote it up again, it split. But it gets to be a third of my portfolio. I've got to take the money and run. With all due respect to Jim Cramer, who I'm very grateful to for getting me into that stock. But it sounds like you're saying that we're in a bubble, at least with the SPAT. Of course we are. That's what humans do. That's what markets are about. So what happens when this bubble - We follow the shiny object.

28:15What happens when the bubble pops? We're going to see that a lot of the spend for AI will not be compensated with revenue growth that's going to help to pay it off. And Oracle, I think, unfortunately, a great company is the poster child for this. They were following the crowd. They decided to double down and do even more. And the truth of the matter is, one, large language model, if all of the tech companies had gotten together and said, look, let's do this together. Right. Right. But the other problem, I think is the metaphors that we use in this conversation, this race with China. The Chinese don't use metaphors like that.

28:50When you listen to them talk about AI, it's part of a broader range of initiatives that they're trying to use to give them an advantage in the global economy. They don't see it as a race. This is all marketing hype. And we have to differentiate between the technology and the sell, okay? Yeah. It's like we used to say about IBM, never mistake sales with delivery, no. All right.

29:15Carol Massar:We got to leave it there. Thank you. Really appreciate it. My pleasure. Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, joining us here in studio. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.

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30:41Carol Massar:Small businesses are the pulse of every community. They bring people together, create opportunities, and drive growth. With a widespread presence in communities across the country, Chase for Business supports small business owners at a local level. That makes it possible for you to connect, learn from each other, and grow together. There's a real commitment to seeing small businesses succeed. The Chase for Business team has knowledge and expertise that span a wide range of financial areas. They can help you make more informed decisions as you navigate the complexities of running your business.

31:13Carol Massar:They'll help your business grow with individual guidance and convenient digital tools all in one place. With that guidance and your determination, you can take your business farther and help build a brighter future for your community. Learn more at chase.com slash business. Chase for business, make more of what's yours. The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices, Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., member FDIC. Copyright 2026, JPMorgan Chase and Company. Deadlines move, plans change, and sometimes opportunities pop up out of nowhere. When you need branded gear fast, 4imprint is ready to deliver.

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32:27With 4imprint, fast, reliable service and peace of mind are built right in. Check out their full 24-hour selection at 4imprint.com. 4imprint, for certain. So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now, a global workforce of 300 ,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94 % of common questions. Not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off. Deep in the work that moves the business.

33:06Let's create smarter business. IBM.

33:09Carol Massar:You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. Hey, we talked about the market. the U.S. jobs market earlier with Michael McKee. It's sluggish, not rapidly deteriorating. And we did see that data that came out, saw traders refraining from boosting bets on your term Fed rate cuts, setting stocks lower and bonds wavering. So we're not, you know, it's not like all of a sudden traders are saying, OK, we're going to get more rate cuts because of that labor data we got this morning.

33:47Yeah. A reduction is fully priced in by mid next year. We should know, but we're not seeing those bets go up.

33:52Carol Massar:No, exactly. Curious to see what our next guest has to say specifically about the U.S. labor market. Let's head to the Bloomberg News Bureau in D.C. to someone well-known to our Bloomberg audience. She was formerly chief economist over at ZipRecruiter. She's Julia Pollack, and she's chief economist for the U.S. Department of Labor. Julia, good to have you back here on Bloomberg. How worried are you about rising unemployment? I'm not. So this report overstates, understates the strength of the labor market right now because there are two huge temporary distortions at play in the data here. The first is 100 ,000 or more federal workers who took the fork and came off payrolls, and some of them have gone into temporary frictional unemployment.

34:37Carol Massar:And the second big distortion in this report is the Schumer shutdown, which forced 900 ,000 federal workers off the job. But it also led to weakness in the private sector because it forced work stoppages for federal contractors and led to temporary layoffs there. So I expect the unemployment rate to jump back down very soon. What about the youth unemployment rate, the rising and rising youth unemployment? Are you concerned about that? So, you know, the unemployment rate is exactly where it was when President Trump first took office in his first term. And he has a track record of bringing it all the way down to 3.5 percent.

35:15Carol Massar:We have a bigger challenge this time because of the Biden inflation hangover, which forced the Fed to slam the brakes on the economy, and that has hurt marginal workers the most. But we are setting the stage for a huge comeback in 2026 and beyond with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which has hugely stimulative policies. And you'll see those macro stimulative effects build into 2026. There are things like expensing fast and accelerated, full and accelerated expensing for business investments, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security. So, Julie, if I may just jump in, just because we only have about five minutes left here.

36:00Carol Massar:So it sounds to you like that there's, and we've heard this certainly from guests here on Bloomberg, more liquidity coming into the market, things to support economic growth. It sounds like you said that the labor picture is actually better than what the data showed. So it sounds to me then that the Fed is correct. Jay Powell is correct in being or, you know, actually, forgive me. What you're sounding like you're saying is that maybe the Fed doesn't need then ultimately to be cutting rates, that things actually look pretty rosy for 2026. So I think the reason that employment growth, the job growth slowed so dramatically between mid-2022 and mid-2024 is that rates were high.

36:46Carol Massar:And the longer rates stay restrictive, the more of the economy gets hurt. The more businesses have to refinance it, double the rate. The more families go out there and try to buy a home and find that it's just unaffordable. So rates right now are still restrictive and they are still a problem for much of the economy. But you said you weren't concerned about rising unemployment, so I'm a little confused. Well, the Fed has a dual mandate, full employment on the one hand and price stability. And this president has shown that his policies deliver both. In the first Trump administration, we had non-inflationary growth.

37:25Carol Massar:And you can do that with policies that don't throw fuel on the fire of demand and restrict supply, but do the exact opposite. So through deregulation, through reshoring incentives, we're going to see this labor market take off again and in a non-inflationary way. Well, on the reshoring part of this, a motivation for reshoring, onshoring, imposing tariffs to bring back the Midwest, to revitalize what many consider the American dream. Secretary Besant has said it's been harmed by global trade. The manufacturing industry, though, it keeps shedding workers. When can we expect the data to reflect progress that the administration is trying to make in restoring that American dream?

38:12Carol Massar:So the economy shed manufacturing jobs for about two years before President Trump took office again. This latest report shows the largest increase in construction jobs in over a year. And that's really the front end of those investments in mining and energy and manufacturing. And they're a signal that manufacturing job growth will pick up. So, OK, you know, you look at the labor market. I mean, in terms of initiatives that will potentially help the U.S. labor market, You know the conversation around artificial intelligence. Chair Jay Powell even addressed it in saying it hasn't impacted U.S. jobs yet.

38:56Carol Massar:So I'm just curious, how are you factoring that into as you look at some of the upcoming moves? The president ramping up in terms of hiring people to really focus on technology, AI specifically, and the administration. So looking to make more investments so that the U.S. certainly has a dominant role. I'm just curious how then you factor that into your estimates for the impact on the U.S. labor market. Well, the AI boom is driving huge demand for workers in the skills trades, in advanced manufacturing, and of course workers with AI skills. And it is our job at the Labor Department to ensure that U.S.

39:34Carol Massar:workers are prepared for those jobs of the future. For the first time, labor policy and education policy are pulling in the same direction. We've aligned labor and education for the first time ever, and we are now focusing very heavily on getting workers access to job-connected training that sets them up for in-demand jobs and that doesn't push them to expensive degrees that leave them with nowhere to go. Let's talk personnel a little bit. We're curious about why it's taking so long to make another nomination as BLS commissioner. Is your name in the ring? Is your hat in the ring? I have no idea.

40:14Carol Massar:You'd have to ask the president that. If you were asked, would you serve as that? Well, I think there is a tremendous amount of work to do there, tracking AI's labor impact, improving the timeliness, the granularity, the accuracy of the data. And I have, at the labor Department made it my priority to push forward a very aggressive labor market data modernization agenda that puts workers and learners first and gives them more access to the data collected on them. So right now, I love partnering with the BLS on all of those kinds of initiatives, and I am happy to serve in whatever role the president sees fit.

40:57If we're thinking just 30 seconds, but if we're thinking about previous commissioners, how will this nominee or this next commissioner be different? Just 20 seconds.

41:10Carol Massar:I have no idea, but I think that whoever comes in has a very clear mandate from the president to put workers and learners at the center of what we do, to change the data paradigm to a real-time data paradigm, and to make sure that the data is accurate and has the utmost integrity. All right, Julia. Thank you so much. Julia Pollack, chief economist for the U.S. Department of Labor. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

42:06cap stocks with improving operating margins, or the S &P 500 minus high debt companies. Chances are there isn't an ETF that fits your exact criteria. But on public, you just type in a prompt and their AI screens thousands of stocks and build a one-of-a-kind index. You can even backtest it against the S &P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Go to public.com slash market and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash market. Add paid for by Public Holdings. Brokered services by Public Investing, member FINRA SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, SEC Registered Advisor.

42:44Crypto services by ZeroHash. Sample prompts are for illustrative purposes only, not investment advice. All investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosures at public.com slash disclosures.

42:54Carol Massar:Small businesses are the pulse of every community. They bring people together, create opportunities, and drive growth. With a widespread presence in communities across the country, Chase for Business supports small business owners at a local level. That makes it possible for you to connect, learn from each other, and grow together. There's a real commitment to seeing small businesses succeed. The Chase for Business team has knowledge and expertise that span a wide range of financial areas. They can help you make more informed decisions as you navigate the complexities of running your business.

43:25Carol Massar:They'll help your business grow with individual guidance and convenient digital tools all in one place. With that guidance and your determination, you can take your business farther and help build a brighter future for your community. Learn more at chase.com slash business. Chase for business. Make more of what's yours. The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. Member FDIC. Copyright 2026. JPMorgan Chase and Company. Deadlines move, plans change, and sometimes opportunities pop up out of nowhere. When you need branded gear fast, 4imprint is ready to deliver.

44:044imprint offers hundreds of promotional products in their 24-hour category. Everything from custom apparel, bags, and drinkware to writing tools, trade show staples, and high-tech gear. At 4imprint, they're focused on getting the details right, printing your logo with precision, packing your order with care, and shipping it out fast. And it's backed by their 360-degree guarantee. That's 4imprint's promise your order will show up right on time, just the way you planned it. That's what it means to be 4imprint certain. So, if you're prepping for a last-minute event or jumping on a big opportunity, you don't have to settle or scramble.

44:40With 4imprint, fast, reliable service and peace of mind are built right in. Check out their full 24-hour selection at 4imprint.com. 4imprint. 4certain. So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now, a global workforce of 300 ,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94 % of common questions. Not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business.

45:19Let's create smarter business. IBM.

45:22Carol Massar:You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube. I've been driving all night, my hands wet on the wheel. Come on, let's take a drive. A drive? Yeah, a drive. We're driving best in my car. Can you just focus on driving? Focus on the road. Driving in your car. Why would I drive fast? Because I'm asking you to. Just drive,

45:55baby.

45:57Carol Massar:This is the Drive to the Close. Where we're going, we don't need roads. On Bloomberg Radio. All right, everybody. We are just about 18 minutes away from the closing bell on Wall Street. Carol Master, Tim Stenevec live across Bloomberg platforms here at Bloomberg headquarters. And we're seeing some buying as we get closer to the closing bell here. And I'm just looking at what you've got an S &P 500. though, that's still a little bit lower down, about five points here, but definitely off its worst levels of the session. NASDAQ 100 now, 107 points to the upside, Tim, and that's good for a gain of about four-tenths of a percent.

46:32All right, let's bring in Larry Pitkowski. He's co-founder and managing partner and portfolio manager of Goodhaven Capital Management. He joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio, in person, in the flesh. In person. It is nice to be here in this studio with you both. I think it's been many years since we saw you. It's been a long time. Pre-COVID. Every time we do this remotely, it seems like the two of you are having a lot more fun in the studio than I am in my office in New Jersey. Plus, you have the unlimited snacks in the lobby. So I figured, well, what the heck? I'm going in.

46:58Well, you're welcome anytime. And thanks for braving the cold for coming in. Hey, we want to talk about Berkshire Hathaway. We want to talk about Lennar. But I want to talk about the macro economy and sort of what the outlook looks like for 2026 and what the market environment looks like for 2026. How are you thinking about the new year in asset allocation? I am thinking that the market, there's plenty of pockets of the market that are expensive. The market overall is certainly not cheap. The economy seems OK. And I have the luxury, which I have it a little easier than you folks. You have to, you know, every day, every minute, have a somewhat of a thoughtful conclusion on everything.

47:36I have the luxury of saying. Oh, you are so wrong about that. I have the luxury of saying, I don't know. I have many people who disagree. I don't know. And nobody's yelling at me if I say I don't know. So I look at the landscape and say it is what it is. But we've been fortunate at GoodAven to be able to keep turning over rocks and finding things that are undervalued. And I think the portfolio itself is attractive.

47:56Carol Massar:Is it still hard to be your value mid-cap player? Is it still hard to be a value player? I'm looking at the fund up about 8 % year to date. Three year, we're looking at average annual returns of almost 20%, which puts you in the 97th percentile. five-year, about 16 % on average annually, according to Bloomberg data, 98th percentile. So longer term, some really outperformance there. But is it harder right now to still be? It's always hard. I mean, it's always hard. And if you want to outperform over the long term, you can't outperform over every period. But it's always hard. But you should enjoy continuing to look under rocks.

48:34And you should expect, as I've written to people for a long time, there's periods of the three and five year, which you call out, which we appreciate, are numbers we're proud of. And we think the portfolio is set up very nicely on a go-forward basis. But it's always hard, but it's always also interesting, and it's never boring. OK, so let's talk about some of these individual stocks. I want to start with Lenar and the opportunity that you see with Lenar. It's one of the biggest holdings in the fund. Why are you bullish? Coming out of the great financial crisis, it appears that we have still been undersupplied in single-family homes.

49:12You can believe whichever statistic you want. Is there 2 million undersupplied? 3, 4, 5.

49:17Carol Massar:Isn't that amazing how we went from oversupply in empty homes to undersupply? Well, you know, things usually go to other extremes, and sometimes they stay there, and everybody remembers how bad that period was. Yeah. But the other interesting thing, you know, there's so many fast changing parts of the economy out there. And at Goodhaven, we often say to ourselves, wait, what's not changing? What industry might not be changing that fast that I could have a strong view of what it might look like in three, five, seven, ten years? Single family housing. Lenore is the second biggest builder after Horton.

49:54And it's a lower price point than some of the competitors. It's a$400 ,000 price point. But so are Horton, Pulte. A lot of them are in that range. Total is a million bucks. But the industry, and Lenore, I think, is leading the way. It's becoming what we would call a better business. Higher returns on capital, higher returns on equity. They have taken what was a historic balance sheet that had a lot of land, and they've spun that out. And they are now repurchasing shares in a material way. And I think your timing is very good to have me on to discuss this because they report earnings after the close today.

50:27Right. The near term, we expect to be somewhat tepid. That's an opportunity potentially. So you have a business that now has the ability to earn high returns on capital, repurchase shares, the price earnings multiple. Maybe they earn around eight bucks for a little while. But the opportunity is that if they embark and continue to succeed in the strategy they've embarked on, you could imagine earnings at 20 bucks or so a couple of years down the road as margins return to 2024 levels. Units are up 5%, 6 % a year on average, and the share count comes down.

51:04Carol Massar:Why are they in a position to show and get better return on capital, higher return on capital? Because they've spun out, because they've taken a balance sheet, which had a lot of land, and they've spun that out into a company called Milrose. And now they've got a leaner balance sheet, okay, which gives them the ability to have higher returns on capital. They're not tying up so much capital in land, okay. And they also will generate free cash flow throughout the cycle. The industry was a little boom and bust historically. Right. You know, they didn't really generate cash except when they shrunk.

51:35And so here is, and this is a very well-articulated, well-thought-out plan. And again, the near term should be a bit tepid. But so what? I think you're creating a better business model for the long term.

51:48Carol Massar:So Larry, it has more to do with their strategy versus a lower rate environment or people finally getting off the fence and buying homes. It's a little bit of everything. But I think the bigger players in the industry are in different ways embracing becoming better businesses. And the other interesting thing is that if I gave you$100 million and I said, go compete with Lenar, with Horton, with Pulte, with NVR, with Toll, I think it would be very hard to do so. I think these companies, the new home market has taken share from the existing home market because they have levers to pull. They have leverage in buying supplies and operating and marketing.

52:29It's hard to be a new entrant. It's hard to not admire where they're going. Before we let you go, we've got to get you to weigh in on Berkshire Hathaway because it's your top holding in the fund. Greg Abel takes the reins next year. You're okay? You're keeping all your shares? We are for sure keeping all our shares. We made Berkshire a very big holding in the COVID era. Our returns since then have been strong. This is a management team and a board with decades and decades of success. I think it is appropriate to assume that Mr. Buffett and the late Mr. Munger, after 60 years of great decisions, have made a thoughtful decision on succession.

53:06And you have to admire how well it's been laid out and articulated in the selfless way. Mr. Buffett is stepping aside and letting Mr. Abel write the letter, be on the podium at the meeting, letting him really, you know, run the show. Eat the cheese candy if he wants. Let him run the show. So we admire how it's been done, and we think it's the kind of thing where you should give them the benefit of the doubt that it is a sensible and well-thought-out plan, which we do.

53:32Carol Massar:Well, fun to have you in studio. Great being here. Yeah. Come again sooner. I will. We would love it. And help yourself to any snacks upstairs. I'm going to load up my backpack. Old school. You're not the only one to do that. Old school. You're in good company. I love the popcorn. Larry Pitkowski, co-founder, managing partner, portfolio manager, Good Haven Capital Management, right here in studio. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app.

54:09Carol Massar:You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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