Meme Stock Fever Is Spreading Like It’s 2021 With Kohl's Soaring

22 Jul 2025 · 39 min · 14 chapters

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In short

Episode topic: Markets and politics—meme-stock mania (Opendoor), plus broader macro strategy around tariffs/Fed policy; also SpaceX/Elon Musk political risk and investor implications.

Guests and backgrounds

  1. Eric Jackson: Founder of Toronto hedge fund EMJ Capital; previously early in Alibaba and Carvana; focuses on “hundred-baggers” and runs a small fund.
  2. Monica Guerra: Executive Director, Head of U.S. Policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
  3. Max Chafkin: Bloomberg Businessweek reporter; co-host of Everybody’s Business and Elon, Inc.; author of The Contrarian.
  4. Leo Kelly: Founder/CEO of Verdant Capital Advisors; ~$4B AUM.

Key claims + notable examples

  • Jackson argues Opendoor is being treated like a 2021 meme stock but is a “real business,” comparing it to Carvana’s turnaround; cites Opendoor’s surge (up as much as ~105% at open) and targets ~$82, expecting profitability and possible activist pressure; defends his social-media buying as not “pumping.”
  • Jackson also lists other positions: IREN, CIFR, BTQ Technologies, and Ethereum; frames miners as “core” exposure.
  • Guerra says Fed independence is intact; tariffs could be inflationary later, but current inflation impact is muted by pull-forward demand and falling inventories; notes dollar weakness raising nominal import costs; expects baseline tariff levels around 10% absent deals.
  • Chafkin says SpaceX filings acknowledge Musk’s political reentry risk; suggests it’s largely legal/investor-relations coverage, with potential leverage via backing candidates rather than forming a formal party.
  • Kelly says markets feel “weird” (crypto/meme stocks up despite tariff uncertainty); remains bullish intermediate-term, disciplined with cash/dry powder, and warns private-market investing requires rigorous due diligence and long illiquidity windows.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

The Return of Meme Stocks

0:00 to 0:35

Discussion on the resurgence of meme stocks and Kohl's price surge.

“Some people treat ChatGPT like some kind of smart search engine, and some use it to get work done.”

The Return of Meme Stocks

2:15 to 3:01

Discussion on the resurgence of meme stocks and Kohl's price surge.

“And then there's open-door technologies.”

Interview with Eric Jackson

3:01 to 4:50

Eric Jackson discusses his views on Opendoor as a meme stock.

“Do you, first of all, take issue with this being Open Door, a meme stock?”

Market Insights and Strategies

4:50 to 7:04

Eric shares his investment strategy and thoughts on market volatility.

“Make your case to us on why you see it moving that high.”

Fund Management and Performance

7:04 to 10:05

Eric discusses the management of his fund and investment philosophy.

“Well, I've been fortunate to be early on a bunch of companies.”

Open Door Community Support

10:05 to 11:39

Eric talks about the community support for Opendoor and social media engagement.

“There's sort of like five key positions I have right now.”

Investment Risks and Considerations

11:39 to 14:00

Eric discusses potential risks and considerations for holding Opendoor stock.

“I mean, I had trouble, you're spending a lot of time retweeting and interacting with folks on there.”

Stock Market Volatility and Insights

14:00 to 17:00

Discussion on stock volatility, insider opinions, and market strategies.

“I can't say I'm going to ride it forever, Carol.”

ChatGPT Work Mode: Revolutionizing Productivity

17:00 to 17:55

Exploration of ChatGPT's new Work Mode designed to enhance productivity.

“It's been quite a few months, so we love it that you took the time.”

Elon Musk's Political Future and Impact

19:58 to 28:05

Analysis of Elon Musk's potential return to politics and its implications.

“You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast.”
Show all 14 chapters

Market Dynamics and Federal Reserve Insights

28:25 to 34:51

Discussion on macro factors affecting financial markets and the role of the Federal Reserve.

“Our next guest is certainly familiar to our Bloomberg audience and has to take all of these big macro factors into account when thinking about the financial markets and figuring out what might be the possible impact.”

Market Dynamics and Federal Reserve Insights

36:33 to 37:29

Discussion on macro factors affecting financial markets and the role of the Federal Reserve.

“Wise is the smart way to manage the currencies you need around the globe.”

Market Volatility and Investment Strategies

42:05 to 45:38

Learn about current market volatility and the focus on private equity investments.

“And so for us, this year has been active.”

Market Volatility and Investment Strategies

45:44 to 46:53

Learn about current market volatility and the focus on private equity investments.

“Leo Kelly, he's founder and CEO of Verdant Capital Advisors.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Some people treat ChatGPT like some kind of smart search engine, and some use it to get work done. ChatGPT Work is a new way of working in ChatGPT that can take action across your apps and files, stay with a project for hours if needed, and turn a goal into finished work. It's designed to help you move from a chaotic starting point to a reviewable first version. So all the source materials, briefs, and scattered information that you have to grind through to turn into something useful can just become something useful. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro plans.

0:42Healthcare doesn't always work great. If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it. That's the kind of stuff Optum is changing. They're using data and technology to integrate patient care, pharmacy, and everything else. So healthcare is connected, not complicated. What's that look like? Cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person, how you need it. Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Learn more at business.optum.com. As industries evolve faster than ever, companies need an environment that accelerates strategic growth.

1:17And Michigan delivers on that promise. From emerging startups to global enterprises, Michigan offers what executives value most, a resilient, innovative ecosystem, diverse communities that attract top talent, and a quality of life that supports work-life balance. With our unified Team Michigan approach, businesses scale faster and compete at the highest level. Michigan, pure opportunity. Seize your opportunity at michiganbusiness.org. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily. Reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead. With insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy.

2:03Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. with Carol Masser and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio. Well, it does kind of feel like 2021, at least some vibes. With meme stocks and crypto back in the spotlight, coal shares more than doubled amid an influx of mentions by retail traders on social media, with the stock price soaring as much as 105 % when the equity market opened today. And then there's open-door technologies. It jumped as much as 120 % yesterday. It extended its gravity-defying rally from last week. Investors continue to pile into the stock that has found a sudden fandom among retail traders and social media platforms.

2:45I mean, this is one that is certainly on our radar. One of the reasons Open Door has been moving is due to Eric Jackson. He's the founder of Toronto-based hedge fund EMJ Capital. He made a series of posts on X encouraging buying. And Eric joins us from Toronto on this Tuesday. Eric, good to have you here with us. Do you, first of all, take issue with this being Open Door, a meme stock? Yeah, I think, Carol, that all the meme stocks from 2021 were dumb businesses. I couldn't understand it at the time why retail traders were getting so wrapped up in AMC, GME, and BlackBerry. I think those were the big three.

3:26Those are all like walking dead businesses. So when I got into Opendoor and then I first started tweeting about it last Monday, it's hard to believe. it feels like a century ago, like 245. Like I got into it because this is a real business and it's got a real platform that it's built and it's definitely fallen on hard times. That's why the stock's down like 99 % or whatever it is from its all time highs. But I just think that the market got overly pessimistic about it. And I've seen this movie before with Carvana. Like that's one of my like, you know, greatest heads on my wall, I guess. you know, from the past is that I got into Carvana early, not at$3.50, but at$15.

4:14And today it's like close to$400. And I just see so many similarities between these two businesses. And, you know, people just get overly prisoner of the moment, pessimistic about these companies, and everyone's negative Nelly, and everyone loves to dance on the grave and say that these companies are circling the drain, nobody would have believed at$3.50 that Carvana was going back to$400. Nobody can believe now that it was$0.70 last Monday. Now it's whatever it is,$3. Today, this thing is, I think, going to$82. Yeah. Okay, so let's talk about that. It's$2.80 right now, down about 12%, 13 % as we speak, just on the day today.

4:54You have a price target of$82. That's pretty wild. Make your case to us on why you see it moving that high. Well, I mean, I'll be even wilder, Tim. I think today it should be trading at 40 bucks. You know, it's it's, you know, like basically that if you look at go back and look at Carvana, OK, use this as a comparison to Opendoor. Both of these companies, they're trying to e-commerceify some niche that hasn't been e-commerceified before. For Carvana, it was buying and selling used cars. For Opendoor, it's buying and selling homes. It's a huge business, obviously, in both cases, a national business, where just having like one or two or 3 % market share nationally, you know, is talking billions and billions of dollars and power, because it's all so fragmented today, you know, with the dealers in the car industry and with the agents, you know, in the real estate industry.

5:53And basically, you need a lot of debt to run both of these businesses. And so the problem that both of these businesses came upon is that although they were flying high in the pre-COVID and then briefly post-COVID era, when interest rates were low, when Powell started raising rates, suddenly investors got nervous and these stocks crashed. And the assumption was that they're going to go under. They're going to file for bankruptcy. So they're priced as if they're going to go bankrupt. And I don't believe that's true. Carvana, you know, in fact, I was on a podcast in June of 2022 with Josh Brown and Michael Batten, where I called both, like I said, both would turn around.

6:34Carvana did and Open Door didn't. I was dead wrong. Like it took a lot longer for them to get to the point where they're about to turn profitable, but they are about to turn profitable. So for Open Door, do you expect to inject and invest more money into it and then take a profit or because it sounds like you've done the research, looked at the business, maybe talked to the company, that this is more of a long-term buy and hold strategy for you? Which is it? Well, I've been fortunate to be early on a bunch of companies. I was really early on Alibaba even back in 2009, 10, when it was still a private company.

7:17It was valued at 10 billion. and I thought it was going to go up. Carvana, you know, some other ones. Like what I've learned, Carol, is that, you know, like it's always hard to not avoid the temptation of firing up the terminal or turning on business TV and getting emotional about the macro headlines of the day and get shaken out of these positions. And sometimes when you, you know, these companies are pretty rare, you know, that can truly 100 bag or 100 X, right? But like, you know, it's so easy to get shaken out of these positions or like in the case of Carvana. Like I got like I said, I got into it at 15.

7:55I would say I got out of it, you know, the bulk of my position and around like probably 130, 140, 150, somewhere in there. And I'm thinking, oh, I'm so smart. I made 10x my money. Pat myself on the back here, you know, and I know this company really well. I still was optimistic about Carvana. I still am today. But I thought like, I'm just going to trade it, trade in and out. And, you know, the truth is you don't make as much money as if you do nothing and just let it sit there. So I'm not like jumping into to add more, Carol, but, you know, because I want to see how the things play out. But, you know, I'm going to try to avoid that temptation and just sit and do nothing.

8:31How much can you give us an idea how much you have put into it? And is it all your money? Is it investor money? Well, I run a fund, Carol. It's a it's a it's a small fund. I'll be frank with you guys. It's like I had a huge I had a huge billionaire that basically was like a cornerstone investor for me in 2016, 17 when I started EMJ Capital. And he said, I like the way you think, Eric. You know, you look at companies differently. You find these like little hidden jewel companies. How about I give you some money to manage? And I did and did great. Like it was kind of like a Cathie Wood type arc, like 2017 up to, you know, probably February 2021 was amazing.

9:10Shot the lights out. And then 21 and 22, I got crushed. And I didn't diversify my, what do you call it, customer base. And so like 99.5 % of the capital in the fund was this billionaire. And he took it out, which was his right. And I'm still friendly with him. But I was sort of like left scrambling and trying to figure out what to do. And so kept the lights on, pivoted to building a team to build AI models, you know, but, you know, it's been hit and miss the last few years. And then it was only like probably, you know, three months ago that I realized like, hey, you know, we're doing, I keep finding these companies.

9:51Why don't we just sort of go all in on that? Let's get the AI models totally focused on finding these hundred baggers before the fact. So the remaining capital we have, which is a few million, we put in, you know, obviously, we didn't put it all into Opendoor or anything. We have other positions. There's sort of like five key positions I have right now. Iron, cipher mining, BTQ technologies, and Ethereum. Those are the kind of the big five I'm focused on. And, you know, we'll see where we go. And, you know, all I got is my reputation, guys. All right. No, no, no, we get. Now I've got, I've got, I've got, you know, I've got people, you know, whatever, calling up or emailing and saying, you know, this is great.

10:29You know, we want to get behind you. So we'll see where it goes. Seems like a lot of folks on social media, a lot of folks on social media are getting behind you. Have you talked to Chamath Paliha Patia at all about this? He is, you know, had famous involvement with Open Door back when it went public. I haven't talked with him. I, I, not emailed, but I texted, or not texted. I tweeted him. I tweeted him when this thing got started last week, because obviously I think it would be a tremendous redemption arc for Chamath to come back into this stock. I don't think he has anything to be ashamed of, of being involved with Open Door to begin with, or any other co-founder.

11:09Like Keith Ravoy is a guy who wrote the business plan originally. I think he's one of the smartest guys out there. Everybody who was associated with this company was, you know, it was a good company. You know, it's just, you know, the macro changed and the rates rose and stuff. And so I don't think Chamath is anything to be, you know, ashamed of. But I think it would be amazing if he came back in on the ride to 82, which would double the all-time highs, which is previously$39. Eric, forgive me for being blunt about this question, but if you look at your Twitter feed, there's just a, it's like all open door.

11:40I mean, I had trouble, you're spending a lot of time retweeting and interacting with folks on there. And I understand that's part of the game these days, but maybe a critic could see that and say, you're really trying to just pump this stock up at this point. Defend it on its fundamentals and convince people that this is not, you know, for lack of a better term, pumping it up and then selling. I don't know what to tell you. I mean, unfollow me, Tim, if I'm bugging you. Mute me or block me. And I'd say that to anybody else. I think anybody who knows me knows I'm not a pumper or whatever. I mean, I have been, obviously, I've been inundated, called a pump and dumper, a grifter.

12:21Jim Cramer said this was a parlay yesterday. I don't know what that means. You can explain it to me. Yeah, whatever. I mean, people are, you know, they're not familiar with the open door story. So whatever. They want to sit back behind their anonymous Twitter feeds and cast aspersions. I don't care. I'm here to make money. I don't have it. I got to feed my family. I got to grow this business. I got to do well for my investors. And if people want to take shots, whatever, you know, you know, I just don't have time for it. I really love the community that we've built. I mean, it's it's amazing. This morning I was retweeting all these people from, you know, you name it, Turkey, Korea, Japan, Africa, Nigeria, Brazil.

13:06I mean, everyone around the world and they're all in on Opendoor. Yeah. You know, I don't know that it's going at 82. I don't know. I don't know. Crystal ball. I wasn't, you know, I don't know. I might be wrong. I was wrong for many, many years about Opendoor, but I don't think I'm wrong right now. I think now is the time this thing is turning and you can either get in, make a lot of money or not. And I got people already telling me how much money they've made and it's life-changing and all this. That's fantastic. I mean, it doesn't, doesn't help me, but I'm happy for them. This is a community.

13:36Eric, you did, you did say, no, I, I hear you. You said you're hoping to hold onto it. Like, that's your plan. But I mean, if all of a sudden the stock took a downturn, I mean, it's a$2.84 stock. So I'm not quite sure what kind of downturn, but is there something that you would quickly change your thoughts or you're going to ride it, even if it rides down a lot? I can't say I'm going to ride it forever, Carol. I mean, not forever, but I mean, if it went down 50 percent, would you stay with it? I think it's less about the percentage drop. I mean, there's obviously going to be volatility, especially in the early days of these kinds of names.

14:17And, you know, they report earnings in a couple of weeks. So, you know, if it's a terrible report, I mean, the thing would, you know, would have a negative reaction to the downside and then reverse to the upside if it was good news. I think it is going to be profitable, and I think it's going to be the start of a string of profitable quarters, which is what needs to happen for this thing to get up to 82. But, you know, one thing that's different about OpenDoor is, like, there is more diverse opinion about management. I think with Carvana, like, obviously, everybody on Twitter and Wall Street hated it.

14:48But if you talk to people that actually knew the business, I think people really admired the CEO, Ernie Garcia, and the management team. And those guys bought a lot of stock when Carvana was low, right before it bottomed. Nobody's done that here at Opendoor, which is the norm for most of these. I mean, most times these insiders, you know, they just don't. Brian Armstrong from Coinbase never bought a share from the time he went public at$400 down to$38 back up again. He just sells, sells, buy a house in LA. But there's more controversy about the management here at Opendoor, Tim. Not to cut you off.

15:21Yeah, that's OK. Some people think Carrie Wheeler, who's the CEO, is great, and some people don't. And so if I discovered three months from now that, gosh, I don't know about her. I mean, one thing I might think about is, what's the chance of an activist coming in here, which I think is very high? So that might keep me in. But if I concluded the management's terrible, I can't stand it anymore, then obviously I'd have to exit. I don't think that's going to be the case. Eric, before we let you go, other stocks that you are buying right now, that you're holding right now, what are people missing and what are you getting?

15:58Earlier today, Tim, hot off the presses, I tweeted this out already. I bought some IREN and CIFR. Both of those are Bitcoin miners. Make a lot of money from that, but they're more excitingly, they're kind of like a core scientific. And just, you know, CoreWeave bought Core Scientific recently, but it was kind of a lousy price for Core Scientific. Iron and Cypher are way bigger, have way more kind of energized gigawatts that are coming online in the next year that somebody like an Oracle or a Meta or, you know, Google has to do a deal with. So I like those and I like BTQ Technologies. BTQQF is the ticker.

16:38It's still an OTC ticker. I bought it at 21 cents in December. It's now at like five bucks. So it's been a 30 bagger for me so far, but I think it's going to meet the criteria and be a 100 bagger when all is said and done. All right. He's looking for the diamonds in the rough, no matter how low the prices are. Hey, Eric, appreciate you taking so much time with us this afternoon. It's great to check back in with you. It's been quite a few months, so we love it that you took the time. Eric Jackson is the founder of the Toronto-based hedge fund EMJ Capital. I would never block him on Twitter. I still follow you on Twitter.

17:12check out his Twitter feed too, because he does share a lot of what he's working on as well. Yeah. Pretty clear. I'm pretty transparent and stuff out there. Some people treat ChatGPT like some kind of smart search engine, and some use it to get work done. ChatGPT work is a new way of working in ChatGPT that can take action across your apps and files, stay with a project for hours if needed, and turn a goal into finished work. It's designed to help you move from a chaotic starting point to a reviewable first version. So all the source materials, briefs, and scattered information that you have to grind through to turn into something useful can just become something useful.

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20:02You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. Back to a headline that you mentioned just in the last few minutes, Carol. SpaceX has warned investors that Elon Musk could return to politics. Musk may serve in similar roles to his previous position as senior advisor to President Donald Trump and devote significant time and energy to such roles, this according to documents. It's great to have back with us Bloomberg Businessweek senior reporter Max Chafkin.

20:37Max is the co-host of the Everybody's Business and Elon, Inc. podcast, also the author of The Contrarian, Peter Thiel, and Silicon Valley's Pursuit of Power. He's here in studio with us. We didn't expect to have you back this soon, as much as we love it. I feel like you knew something here when you told us that, you know, never say never when it comes to Elon Musk and staying out of politics. I mean, this is one of these things where any investor who's learning this from the risk factor statement of the prospectus is a little bit behind the curve. It's been pretty obvious for about a year that Elon Musk's political activities have a bearing on his businesses.

21:13But this, of course, is an acknowledgment of that. And also, I guess, Tim, as you're kind of hinting, maybe a suggestion that Musk has plans to reenter the floor. Although he sort of said as much on Twitter a week ago when he launched the America Party. All right. But does this take it to if he's putting this language in the tender offer for SpaceX? I mean, does it kind of make it even more formal or official? I mean, does it take it to another level? I mean, we saw these risk factors. I'm less familiar with them as they apply to private marketing fundraising. But, of course, they do show up in public market fundraisings as well.

21:52you know, on quarterly reports, annual reports. I just had a quick peek at the last Tesla earnings release back in April. It had two new risk factors, one related to essentially perceptions about the stability of the management team, kind of a wordy way of saying negative stories about our CEO and another about tariffs and a host of other things. So, I mean, I think this is more an acknowledgement of something that is that Musk himself has talked about. And this is not, I mean, maybe this, in some ways, I guess this is confirmation that people inside of SpaceX are aware that Elon Musk has discussed very recently plans to continue his political journey.

22:35And this is a reflection of that. But how that journey could look might be a lot different than what that journey was over the last year or so, given the very public fallout that he's had with President Trump. Do you think it would take the form of a new political party and supporting candidates, perhaps Democrats and Republicans who maybe want to slash the deficit? Well, we've talked about this a lot. We've talked about this here some and also on the Elon Inc. podcast. I think there's a I think there are reasons to be somewhat skeptical of a political party in the formal sense, like a like another effort to start like a reform party or some true alternative.

23:11I think the idea of Elon Musk somehow trying to formalize this political movement, you know, in the same way that the Tea Party is not an actual political party. It's like a constituency of voters. You could imagine something like that. And and what Musk has said is, you know, or hinted at at the very least, is a plan to back certain candidates in the Senate and in Congress and then try to use that to be, you know, as a sort of point of leverage in negotiations over over bills and so on. And I think, you know, there's something to be said for that, right? If he were able to, say, peel a few Republican Senate or House votes away, like that would give him more leverage over Trump than he has now.

23:55There are also reasons why this could backfire spectacularly. All right. Let's just remind everybody, as Max has been reminding us, that, you know, he has talked about, you know, kind of staying exposed to politics or staying in politics. We're talking about Elon Musk. In fact, here's what he had to say on May 30th from the Oval Office. Well, I expect to continue to provide advice whenever the president would like. I hope so. I mean, yeah, I expect to remain a friend and an advisor. And certainly, if there's anything the president wants me to do, I'm at the president's service. All right. Again, that was Elon Musk there with Donald Trump, the president of the United States, back on May 30th.

24:37So, Max, if we read something like this, I mean, who knows? Is it going to be what? Was that the day with the black guy? That was the black guy. I just wanted to. That was parenting mishap. Yeah, sorry. The reason I ask is because you were on our program yesterday. The whole big take. It's the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek. The issue is on my desk. Right. It's all about this. This is like the financial filing equivalent of a black guy, right? An acknowledgement that there is risk here and risk for his company. I mean, just now, as we're talking about this, Musk has been tweeting sort of semi-taunting the Trump administration over reports around the Golden Dome, reports that the Defense Department might look for alternatives to SpaceX.

25:21So he's obviously moving into a sort of different position relative to the Trump administration. I'd say it's kind of similar to the one he had with the Biden administration. Although, of course, Musk's politics have changed quite a lot since then. Yeah, I guess that's what I was curious. Like, you know, is it that he's going to go back and become buddy again? Or like we just don't like in what form or is he kind of like this and just figuring out a different involvement in? Well, I mean, I think Musk has carved out an identity that puts him further, that puts him to the right of President Trump.

Read the full transcript

25:57on a whole bunch of issues. You brought up the deficit, but of course he talks all the time about identity politics, about sort of cultural issues, always taking a more or less right-wing position. And that's kind of where his fandom is and that to the extent that he has a political platform, I'd expect it to be a right-wing platform, further to the right than the Republican Party for sure. But of course there's also an element of self-interest, Right. Where a lot of his positions coincide with the interest of his companies, his companies, as I've said a bunch of times on this program and others, you know, are are either heavily regulated by the U.S.

26:36government or dependent on government contracts. So it's going to be my my guess and my supposition would be some combination of Musk's, you know, own political interests and fixations along with, you know, self-interested policies. So you could imagine a very conservative on cultural issues, perhaps, but probably like a little bit less conservative on the question of funding, you know, green technology companies and so on. Because, of course, that's what Tesla is to some extent. We'll see. I don't know. Yeah. Day by day. Hey, this is a great story, though. Dan Aholl, Lauren Grush, Ed Ludd, those SpaceX warning investors that Elon Musk could return to U.S.

27:10politics. Max, before we let you go, is this more the lawyers covering themselves than it is an indication that Musk is going to have a new adventure? Yeah, I mean, I think more or less. And I think anytime you see something like this in a filing, obviously lawyers, as much as Musk has a stated view that is not super positive about lawyers, my assumption here is that, you know, this is lawyers and investor relations types trying to cover their basis. But he signs off on it. Of course. Right? Yeah. So he's all in on this as well. Shares of Tesla, by the way, they're up about 1.8%. So one of our metrics on this.

27:46Hey, be ready. have your pager or whatever the heck ready because we make the max signal your star link up and running because we may reach out to you again um of course that is bloomberg business week senior reporter max chafkin he's co-host of the everybody's business and elon inc podcast and the author of the contrarian this is the bloomberg business week daily podcast listen live each weekday starting at 2 p.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130.

28:25Our next guest is certainly familiar to our Bloomberg audience and has to take all of these big macro factors into account when thinking about the financial markets and figuring out what might be the possible impact. Great to have with us Monica Guerra. She's Executive director, head of U.S. policy for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management right here in studio. Good to have you here. There is a lot coming at investors and strategists to trying to figure out our way forward when there's still a lot of unknowns. So I am curious, first of all, with the pressure on Fed chair Jay Powell, do you believe he could step down early?

28:58I think it's up to him, right? The decision, there's no rule that says that he can't. In our view, we do think that he's likely to see the term out is only eight more months, right? So this is important to keep at the forefront of this narrative. It's also important, I think, to Vicent and others to have stability within Treasury markets. So that is a critical factor in all of this. So why does this Treasury Secretary, though, sometimes seem to put pressure on Fed Chair Jay Powell? Well, that's because you have a president that's looking for a lower 10-year rate. You know, his background, you've You got to remember, he's a real estate guy.

29:33And having more accommodative lending policies is right in line with that. But the Treasury Secretary is no stranger to Wall Street in understanding the importance of the Fed chair. I mean, for him alone, I think it's kind of interesting, or is it? Which is why I think I want to agree with you in that it is interesting, but he's important in that he was a big voice of reason when it came to the initial tariff announcements, for example, right? He came in, he essentially coached the president through, especially when treasury markets became unstable. So you have to remember that this is also something that is still top of mind for him.

30:14So I think what he's trying to do is balance policy priorities, what the president wants versus what is good for the markets. In your view, what is more important to the markets, an independent federal reserve or clear trade policy? Independent federal reserve, I would say, right? As far as being able to work with the committee and actually come up with the decision on the dot plot of where they're going. Would you say that independence has been threatened over the last few months by the president? I wouldn't say it's been threatened. What you're looking at is a president who continues to voice his personal opinions.

30:47Powell has continued to do his job the way that he feels is the correct order in an independent fashion. You have the Supreme Court case that essentially created a carve out for the Federal Reserve specifically. So for further, you know, adjudication if necessary. So I don't think this is a one and done. But I would really like to change the conversation to the tariff piece, because even though I think that having, you know, a stable Fed is more important for the economy, at least from a market's perspective, if we're thinking about tariffs, that's going to have a huge impact longer term, potentially on the inflationary piece.

31:23which ties in to that interest rate argument. And don't hate me because I want to go back there because can the Fed chair and the Fed and the FOMC really determine the right policy before knowing exactly what all the tariffs and trade, you know what I mean? Like until they know the specifics on the tariffs that are going to be imposed, like can they really determine the right policy? And are they smarter to say, let's hold off a bit? Because if they're not as onerous and growth picks up and inflation picks up, right, they don't want to cut rates, raise rates, right? That would be maybe more problematic, perhaps, for the market.

32:00Right, so you were just, I just want to say, you know, in this discussion, you were talking about this desire to hold rates low. I think that if you're looking at the Fed, they're in a homeostasis right now because of all these factors, right? The data hasn't led them completely to a place where we have core economic weakness. We're seeing some initial softening in that. in some of the data. We have to see how that all pans out. We have to wait till August 1st to get all of the tariff news in. So on that, would you say that, why would you say the tariffs haven't necessarily been inflationary at this point?

32:34Whereas three months ago in our studio, guest after guest was saying, just wait for, to see the inflationary effects of this. It hasn't happened. So you had a pull forward in demand, right? You had suppliers ordering ahead of time. You had a full inventory restock, what we're seeing is that inventories are starting to fall off. As soon as those new orders come in at that higher level, that can be inflationary. It's going to be costs shared both with the company, the business, and the consumer. The other thing I want to note is that the dollar is actually down about 10 % from the beginning of the year.

33:10What that means on the import front is that weaker dollar means you are paying higher import costs. doesn't matter what the average effective rate is, your import costs are now higher on a nominal basis. So again, that is also inflationary, which is why I think it is, you know, astute of the Fed to hold off and see where the data takes them. So net net, do all of this in terms of what the longer term impact, do you have a good feel about, I don't know, you know, I feel like we go from day to day in terms of what comes out of White House, which is fair, probably accurate. But I'm just curious, do you have a better feel of like by the end of the year, yeah, there'll be some higher tariffs, but maybe not so onerous and, you know, we'll start to see growth come back.

33:53Like how are you kind of gaming this out? So you're going to have a baseline of 10 % on any country, right? On any country that you don't have a final deal with. Which is a lot higher than what it was. Right. A lot higher, right? So at least three times higher. So if we're looking at the average effective rate right now, it's about 12 to 15, depending on how you're counting. You know, if you look at the most recent deal, I think with the Philippines, right, that's a 19 % tariff just off of the 20. So while we're seeing some capitulation, right, and some negotiating downward, we could be at some of the same reciprocal levels that we saw on Liberation Day.

34:25I think that would be a surprise to the markets. You might get some interim volatility in response, but then it becomes an idiosyncratic risk and sorting through which sectors and industries could be most impacted. Yeah, I mean, And yeah, it's just, as you say, right, each market, each country, each industry, it's really specific. And so there's a lot of detail in terms of figuring out the impact. Monica, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. Monica Guerra, she is Executive Director, Head of U.S. Policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, joining us here in studio. Some people treat ChatGPT like some kind of smart search engine, and some use it to get work done.

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38:18Carol Masser, Tim Stenevec here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio looking at probably another record for the S &P 500 if we continue at this level. 63-14 up about just shy of 9 points, 192 points higher on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We've seen big tech under some pressure today ahead of big tech earnings getting underway. We'll get a couple of big ones tomorrow after the close. Nasdaq 100, Tim, right now down about 92 points off our best and worst levels of the session. Let's see what Leo Kelly has to say about all this. He's founder and CEO of Verdance Capital Advisors. More than$4 billion in assets under management.

38:54He joins us from Hunt Valley, Maryland, this afternoon. Are we in kind of a weird place, I think? And I think Carol agreed with that here. We're feeling kind of weird. We're feeling a little weird. Just going to tell you. We got the crypto market doing its thing. $4 trillion in assets as of last week. Bitcoin around a record, new record, close to$120 ,000 per Bitcoin. The meme stocks are memeing. They're memeing. It's a little crazy. Yeah. Yet tariffs are on the horizon here. And those are going to hit on August 1st, unless something changes. What am I missing here? Well, you're not missing that.

39:34It's weird. It is. And it has been really for a few months. Right. So April 2nd comes along and we have the tariff tantrum, which was shocking in of itself. I mean, imagine for a minute being surprised that Donald Trump is going to pull a hard line to negotiate with. That should be expected, not be surprised by it. And so we have this dramatic impact in the market, which is immediately turns around and we make new highs. I think the tariff thing gets done. What I think people have to do is take a step back and ask the question, what's important right now? What is it we should really be focused on?

40:21Should we be focused on whether the tariffs are 15 percent or 20 percent or just that they're going to get done and they will get done? Should we be focused on whether or not Jerome Powell is the next Fed president or whether or not rates are going higher or lower? And if they go lower, will that stimulate inflation? We think it will. And in the intermediate term, are we bullish or bearish? Well, we're actually pretty bullish. There's a lot of investment coming to the U.S.

40:51Earnings are starting to gain a little momentum. AI productivity is going to be significant. So there's reasons in the intermediate term to be bullish. And there's a lot of volatility, I think, headed in front of us in the fall. So, yeah, it's weird because it feels a little scary in the very short run. And yet there's so many reasons to be bullish in the intermediate term. All right. I just got to take a step back because I think last time you were on with us, Leo, was in mid-February. So what a long, strange trip it's been for U.S. stocks. So I'm just curious. you kind of walked us through some of this stuff, right, in terms of the imposition of tariffs by President Trump and backing off.

41:27What has the last five months been like for you and managing money for your clients? It's been interesting. So we've been holding cash in lieu of long bonds. So we've had cash. We have been extremely disciplined in rebalancing portfolios and not letting the hot stuff, go too far and get too far out of kilter. So we had some dry powder. And to be fair, over the last couple of years, we've been waiting on volatility to put money to work. So when April hit and we had this volatility and this pullback, we were very active in that moment. And so for us, this year has been active. It's been active from the standpoint of executing when the volatility has hit, and then maintaining discipline as we go through this.

42:16We're continuing to tell clients that more volatility is coming, but we're a little more bullish than we've been in years past. In years past, we've been a little hesitant to jump into the volatile moments. We're not anymore. We're buying into volatility because we do think the intermediate term looks pretty good. Well, volatility, that was certainly something that we saw in April, but things have been really calm over the past few weeks. How opportunities have you seen of late, or are you still sitting on the sidelines waiting for things to move lower? Well, I would say this. There's a couple of things that are going on over the last several weeks.

42:51One, valuations are starting to get stretched again, especially in the hot stocks, right? The big tech stocks. And so, I think if the market continues to move higher at this pace, our next move would be to reduce again, because our allocations will get out of sync. But there's still areas in the market to invest. Small, mid-cap stocks still look pretty reasonable. International stocks made a big move. You might recall here last year, we were big proponents of international stocks. We have been overweight. They've made a big run this year. So we're a little out of, again, out of allocation on that as well.

43:24And in the private markets, there's still a lot of opportunity in private equity investing, private credit. There's some interesting energy plays out there. So we're always active in the markets, just not always in the S &P 500. Well, that's what I was going to ask. I mean, you know, increasingly, everybody's been talking about the private markets. And so, you know, for folks who focus on the public markets, you know, you do wonder what you're missing or you probably know what you're missing. Increasingly, are you for your client base, Leo, more interested in the private markets? That's where you can kind of really juice performance versus the public markets?

44:01Well, we have been for a long time. So we've been longtime players in the private markets, and we continue to put a lot of focus around that. I think there's some caution that we have to warn folks about when they start looking at the private markets. This democratizing private investments, especially with the new law that was just passed that allows these private investments to go in the 401ks and IRA accounts, there's going to be folks chasing return. and private investing is great if you do a few things. One, you have rigorous due diligence. That's really important. Two, you have to diversify the portfolio over vintage and style.

44:42Too many times people get excited about one or two hot dots and they sound great and they have great past performance returns and they'll throw a lot of money. Well, in the private equity world, that could be very dangerous because it's illiquid and you get stuck for a long, long time. It's not like a stock market that goes down and then pops right back up, and you can wait it out. With the private markets, you could be sitting on that for a long time. So I think folks have to be aware of the illiquid nature of it. So you have to allocate correctly, not just how much you put in private markets, but per deal and per vintage, meaning what year you're buying into.

45:18It takes, I mean, Carol, it takes five to seven years to build a good private equity portfolio. So it's just not something you can just jump in and do. No, I totally understand. And I mean, we've talked a lot about private equity, the difficulty in kind of getting out in the last few years. So people are trying to figure out their portfolio. We've got to run. Leo, good to talk with you again. Be well. We'll talk soon. Always good to be with you guys. Thank you. All right. Leo Kelly, he's founder and CEO of Verdant Capital Advisors. They've got about$4 billion in assets under management. Joining us once again from Maryland.

45:51This is the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast. available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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From the publisher

Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

Stocks are at all-time highs. Chatter on WallStreetBets is surging. Retail traders are flooding into low-priced shares.

It’s not 2021, and the shares of the moment aren’t GameStop Corp., AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. or the now-bankrupt Bed Bath & Beyond. In 2025’s meme stock mania, the companies du jour are Opendoor Technologies Inc. and Kohl’s Corp.
The similarities are clear: Like the episode four years ago, which famously led Gabe Plotkin to shutter his hedge fund Melvin Capital Management, amateur traders are piling into heavily shorted companies with low share prices in a bid to strike quick riches. And, as was the case back then, it comes at a time of broad market euphoria: the S&P 500 is at an all-time high, Bitcoin has doubled in less than year and blank-check companies are all the rage again.

Today's show features:

  • Eric Jackson, Founder and President of EMJ Capital, on the latest rally in so-called “meme stocks” specifically Opendoor Technologies
  • Bloomberg Businessweek Senior Reporter Max Chafkin on SpaceX warning investors that Elon Musk could return to US politics
  • Monica Guerra, Executive Director and Head of US Policy for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management on the impact of tariffs on the economy and markets amid US dollar weakness
  • Leo Kelly, CEO of Verdence Capital Advisors, on markets and the Federal Reserve’s path forward

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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