No Peace, No War — the New US-Iran Normal

24:49They've got a lot to talk about, particularly on the economic side. I know the Chinese want to talk about Taiwan as well. But I do think it's important for the U.S. and Chinese leaders to talk through a range of issues. And my general view is more talk is actually better. So I would advise going.

25:07Carol Massar:And Andreas writing that Xi Jinping may use the meeting to turn U.S. arms sales to Taiwan into a bargaining chip and prod President Trump into a subtle change of language regarding Taiwanese independence. I mean, it's all just so interesting. I hope that does not happen, by the way. OK. Seth Jones, president of the Defense and Security Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies there in our D.C. Bureau. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2 p.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

25:44Just say, Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130. Interestingly enough, we're seeing chip makers rising for 16th straight day. Longest ever advance there. There are also some individual stocks making big moves. But the earnings picture, as you were saying earlier, is setting the tone that says, wait a second, investors at least to a certain extent have looked beyond the high cost of energy right now. And that's not at least bleeding in.

26:08Carol Massar:Kind of looking through. For all companies. For getting used to it. Yeah, exactly. Well, our next guest has a target of$8 ,000 on the S &P by the end of the year. So we want to talk about that. He also, among his recommendations, it includes an iconic private equity firm that has limited exposure to private credit. Those are his words. words. And then also another company that he calls the poster child for the rotation being overdone. So we have a lot of names you want to get to. Jay Hatfield is CEO and chief investment officer of the RIA infrastructure capital advisors. It's got about$3.6 billion in assets under management.

26:38He joins us here in the Bloomberg Businessweek studio. We got to start with the, I keep calling it the backdrop to the trade, but that's what it is. And it's high energy prices. And it does seem like traders are looking beyond the war, yet it's hard for a lot of people to say there is a clear end to this how are you looking at that thanks for having me on tim and carol well we do a ton of research on energy i founded an energy company and our first etf amza is a pipeline company so we have a global supply and demand model and so the way we framed it is there's a good rule of thumb that works extraordinarily well which is every million barrels of lost capacity is$5.

27:18So if you frame it that way, if the straight was shut down forever, then the oil price would be about$140 a barrel. Because, you know, there's elasticities of demand or sensitivity and supply. And, you know, we started out roughly at 60. And so our point since the beginning of the war is that 100 is probably going to be an inflection point. because there's almost 100 % certainty at some point the strait will reopen. You essentially have every country in the world who wants to have it open. Now Iran, so we think that's a good strategy to blockade. Probably not Russia, but that's not that important.

27:57So what we always try to do is look longer term. So at some point the strait's going to be open, and so we're bullish long term. And we were bullish in mid-March because there's a cycle of fear and greed. So greed occurs during earnings season, like now. And fear occurs when there's no earnings and you have hedge funds and other momentum investors typically overshorting stocks, like KKR, for instance, in our opinion.

28:25Carol Massar:Yeah. And a lot of the tech companies. So that's why we all have jobs, is that you have these inefficiencies in the markets. So you're saying, though, longer term, you assume and you assume this year that the straight will reopen and probably sooner rather than later, in your view, because it is Iran is feeling the pressure, the price. And even though we had an earlier guest who said they're used to an economy that's just decimated and having problems. And so maybe their threshold for pain is greater. There's a reality that they need the straight open. Absolutely. And. the other Middle Eastern countries do.

29:05Pakistan, once it opened, they're mediating. So we just try to stick to the most likely case and not all these outlier cases like, oh, the strait never reopens and we'll sell all of our stocks. And then you miss out on big rallies. I think the concern for some people is the strait opens, but Iran continues enriching uranium and the US and Israel don't want to see that happen. So then you're sort of back to this, what you had before the war, Yet the leadership in Iran has been decapitated by whatever measure you want to use. And that economy has been severely destroyed. And you have a military operation that has cost the U.S.

29:46untold hundreds of billions of dollars, tens of billions of dollars at this point. Well, the way we see it unfolding is we do think it's a good strategy to blockade the straits. So we actually went long the futures when they were off 70 handles over the weekend. I think it was last weekend or weekend before. But if that doesn't work, we think that the strait will be reopened by force, possibly using ground troops. Really? So that there isn't going to be a case where the uranium still stays there that will destroy their energy infrastructure, use ground troops, and just open it up.

30:18Carol Massar:So it escalates. Right. Before it ends. Yeah, so that would be a negative inflection for the market. We kind of saw that yesterday. a, you know, how negative though, and how long does it last? Because of this target and the fundamentals, which we can get into, uh, we think it'll be a pretty shallow dip. Like it really was like actually March's, uh, activity in the stock market was super bullish because that's the best you can do for a sell-off in the U S at least. Then that means that we're probably going to go higher when things settle down. So that's why you're holding to that 8 ,000 target.

30:48Well, actually, you know, it's valuable to come on and do appearances because I don't really always love doing appearances. So I try to have good data. So I use this thing. I don't know if you're aware of it, but it's called the Bloomberg terminal and you can get consensus. And so, and it's sort of definitive because people like me use it. So, and there's a great function, uh, SPX index EEO go, and I said it to annual and I said, oh my God. I mean, of course we should do this more often. We based our 8 ,000 target on 350 and it's now 375 and you can even click on it. I'm doing that now and you get this fabulous chart of what happened and you see the, I guess it's the yellow line.

31:35No, it's the purple line. It just took off like a rocket. And so actually my 8 ,000 target is conservative based on our assumptions about interest rates. So at 375, if we get there, we're, we're far away. We would be, our target would go up to 8 ,600. So we think 8 ,000 is easy now, even at today's rates. And so it's critical to stay on top. And we do believe in consensus. We don't, we're not like a lot of strategies to say, Oh, well, we're bearish on earnings and we're going to haircut it. Like that's the consensus. It's on the terminal. So everybody's

32:09Carol Massar:looking at so to be fair it's earnings it's it's fundamentally based you're just looking at what the companies are doing and as long as they are hitting these numbers like you can fundamentally trade on them i mean they're giving us kind of when they give us an update they're telling us how they feel and how they're doing against this macro war backdrop absolutely and that's why i said be focused on the long term because those numbers are not only not going down they're actually going up so why should you sell your stocks because of the problems in the middle east let's go ahead well i just have i'm gonna talk names okay we'll talk names and just i i just i think people would be listening to this or watching this and they're saying wait a second what about those higher energy prices flowing through and affecting earnings because it affects the top line if customers are paying more at the gas pump uh and it affects the bottom line if these companies have to their inputs are more expensive well that would be a disaster if we're in europe or asia but in the u.s the energy prices have come down to only be three percent of consumer we're spending and we have free natural gas i mean i'm exaggerating but it's nearly free carol was looking at a chart earlier yeah they actually go down when oil prices are higher because it's a waste product of drilling for oil my product right and so it goes down and that's the biggest advantage you could ever possibly create this is why the notion that the u.s is lost is it's exceptionalism is ridiculous because you can't change history we have all those those hydrocarbons that came from the inland sea that used to be there it's not the 70s and we're in the oil lines because we're so dependent on oil outside the united states and one thing that almost nobody ever talks about we had wage and price controls yeah on the entire 70s which was i didn't even realize till recently even though i was alive but that was a disaster our production plummeted during the 70s so you know we obviously don't have that so we have production that's why it's only$5 per million because we're going to produce more in the U S.

34:02Carol Massar:So listen, we only have about three minutes left here. So you do like, speaking of the energy sector, you like Chenier, ticker LNG. It's up about 32 % year to date. It's going to report the first week of May. Why that name in particular? Well, MLPs and infrastructure, master limited partnerships. Yeah. And pipelines are interesting because people kind of hate them. Yeah. Like they never go up. They haven't gone up for two years. So you could say, oh, I don't want to go into these mo trades if we're correct about a war ending. But they're trading at really reasonable multiples. And they're going to benefit long term because actually the destruction of capacity is long term in the Middle East.

34:43So they have a great situation where everybody wants to source their natural gas now from the U.S. So they have a long term advantage. So a good value stock, it'll come down when the war ends, but it's a great long term investment. You mentioned KKR earlier, so I want to give some time on your view on KKR, which is down 16 % this year. There's some concerns when it comes to credit, when it comes to private equity.

35:04Carol Massar:And the firm has said that they've got limited exposure to private credit, but they have limited some of their cap withdrawals on one of their asset-based finance funds because redemptions were above that. Well, what happens in the market— Redemption requests were above that. And again, this is why we have jobs—is that people say, oh, alternative asset managers, they create a basket and they just short them every day. and KKR is in the basket. They don't do any work and say private credit is 15%. And it's probably the best or one of the two best financial services brands in the world. And that's important because they're going in and pitching to CalPERS.

35:43And we could go pitch CalPERS on managing their money for 100 years and never get any money. So there's only a few companies like that. So why should that trade at 10 times earnings? It's rallied, like, you know, that's off the lows, but that should be a 2030 multiple company because they raised$23 billion last month during a terrible month. So that company's not going away to have permanent capital and they have limited exposure. So we prefer that company to ones like Apollo that do have a lot of exposure, private credit.

36:13Carol Massar:I hate to do this, but we're going to do it. 30 seconds on Amazon because you have said it is the poster child for the rotation being overdone. It does report next Wednesday and it's up about 9 % year to date, just quickly. So quickly, Walmart trades at 43 times, Amazon at 22 times. Amazon grows over 20. And so you have a peg ratio of four versus one. I'll pick the peg ratio of one. Really interesting. And there's so much going on with that company. I feel like we've had so much news in the AI world, too, about what Jeff Bezos and Amazon is after. Jay, come back soon. Great. Thanks for having me.

36:46Carol Massar:Really enjoyed it. Jay Hatfield, CEO and CIO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors joining us. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2 p.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130. We've got to get to that other big topic that we were talking about a lot before the war. We still talk about it, and that is AI. Yeah, a small group of unauthorized users of Access Anthropics' new Mythos AI model, which the company says can enable dangerous cyber attacks.

37:26And as Tesla gets ready to report later on today, the story about how SpaceX has an agreement to acquire the AI startup cursor for about$60 billion later this year or pay$10 billion for the companies to work together.

37:37Carol Massar:He's been listening to the latest on the war and waiting patiently. Seth Figerman is back with us. He is Bloomberg News AI editor. I want to start with Tesla and their kind of evolving world. And it's really SpaceX as that world of Elon continues to evolve. What is Cursor and why does SpaceX want it? Sure. And thank you for the education on everything. You're welcome. Cursor is a really buzzy, fast-growing AI coding startup. If you've heard the phrase vibe coding, a lot of that is because of Cursor. They released an AI coding assistant back in 2023, actually around the same time that Elon Musk launched his AI startup.

38:13And it really changed the way a lot of software developers think about coding. It can streamline the process of writing and debugging code. I'm not a coder.

38:21Carol Massar:Tim's been working on it. Oh, cool. I've been trying. The vibes aren't great, let's just say that. But I've been trying to do some vibes. But is it just a looser way of, like, talking to, like, figuring it out? I think what they've done is a lot of their product is basically built on and around the existing models from companies like OpenAI and Anthropic and sort of packaging in a way that was particularly compelling and easy to use for developers. They had their own proprietary models, and they were looking to kind of double down on that because they also face growing competition from OpenAI and Anthropic and a long list of other startups.

38:52I'm glad you went there because, you know, you can vibe code with OpenAI's ChatGPT. You can do it with Anthropic. A lot of places, yeah. To Carol's point, can't you do it using tools from XAI, or they just haven't been able to figure that out? So, XAI historically has done well at some things. I mean, it's easy sometimes to write off Elon as having a lot of bluster, but they did kind of build pretty quickly a compelling large language model to power their chatbot based on a lot of data from Twitter or X. I still call it Twitter. It's okay. You're in a good company. I know. I'll never stop. But they have not been as credibly competitive on the coding front.

39:26And maybe you could have looked past that at one time, but increasingly we've seen that this is the revenue generator. This is the proven lucrative market for the big AI companies. But it seems like at this point, it's turning into a commodity. Because if OpenAI can do it, if Anthropic can do it, if the other startups that you said can do it. I'd say yes and no. I think there's a lot of players in the market right now. But there's still a big difference between the ones that are kind of the bleeding edge, like Anthropic and OpenAI, and the rest. Anthropic, every few weeks, every couple of months puts out a product saying it can code autonomously for longer.

39:59It can deal with more sophisticated problems. It can act more and more like a senior engineer. And maybe to you and I, those distinctions aren't always immediately apparent, but it's just getting better. And so I think that's also made everyone else in that space have to play catch up a little bit. And at the moment, that's key to the enterprise.

40:17Carol Massar:I feel like it's why, you know, when we talk with Mark Gurman about Apple, it's like, you know, I think to us it makes somewhat sense of like, yeah, let's rely on Gemini. Let Google and Alphabet spend all that money and figure it out and we'll just use it. But he seems to continue to stress, Mark does, that Apple needs to be in on its own. So there's a feeling broadly in AI, not just about coding, but certainly there that you're seeing a handful of companies start to pull away. Now, it's not impossible to catch up there. You're watching companies like Meta who sort of slip behind and they're spending gobs of money to try to get back in that upper echelon.

40:48But I think you're seeing Anthropic and OpenAI and Google start to pull away from the crowd a little bit.

40:53Carol Massar:Can we do 40 seconds? I know we're going to like Anthropics mythos. We think it's the way I say both ways. Yes, mythos or mythos is being accessed by unauthorized users. 40 seconds. What do we need to know about this? Look, this is a product that Anthropica said is dangerous enough that they wanted to limit the release of it for fear of someone using it to potentially hack or exploit vulnerabilities in every major piece of critical software. So, if even one person out there has access who shouldn't, it seems concerning. We're still sussing out how broad that access is. Sounds not great, Seth. The look Tim gave me.

41:2240 seconds.

41:23Carol Massar:No, but as Seth, as you described it, I mean, we're in uncharted territory, right? Not great, Bob. Do we know who these people were? We can't say, but. Oh, OK. Oh, I like that. Mysterious. All right. Follow this space for more. Please do. Really good. Thank you. So well. Seth Vigerman, he is AI editor at Bloomberg News, joining us here in studio. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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45:24Carol Massar:Propane generic futures. We're checking it out on the Bloomberg up approximately 25 percent since the U.S. war in Iran began. For some perspective, WTI crude futures are up about 40 percent since the start of the war. Nat Gas down nearly 4 percent since the war began. We're mentioning these prices kind of overall. Right now, for those who are watching on TV and on YouTube and on Bloomberg Originals, you're taking a look at Nat Gas and New York Crude. But we're mentioning these different prices because all are taken into account when it comes to the production and pricing of propane. We went through a little bit of a deep dive and a little bit of an energy lesson.

45:58You could say? Yeah. Okay, well, let's bring in somebody who does not need a quick study. No. The president and CEO at the more than$1.2 billion market cap company Suburban Propane, Michael Stievela is with us, joining us from the New York Stock Exchange. Mike, good to have you on the program. So bring us up to speed on the propane market, specifically the propane that you sell, where it comes from, how it's processed, and then also what you've seen when it comes to pricing since the war began. Great. Thanks for having me. You know, first of all, Suburban Propane, we're a domestic retailer of propane.

46:29And so we source about 99 percent of our propane right here in the good old United States of America. We're flush with propane right now. Now, inventory levels in the country are up above 78 million barrels, which is about two-thirds higher than the five-year average for this time of year. And as you know, we're sort of coming out of the heating season, which is the peak demand period for domestic propane use. And so we're in a really, really good position with propane. Propane is a byproduct of crude oil process refining and natural gas processing. So we do retain a good bit of it here. We're actually producing record levels.

47:18We're almost at three million barrels a day now. And exports are hovering around two to two point two million barrels a day. So we have plenty of propane here in the United States. So the propane that you sell, is it typically, is it typically, it's more so used here in the United States, more so used for cooling, let's say, than it is for cooking. So a real cyclical nature to the business. Mostly for heating, right? Heating in the peak heating season. 55 million households rely on propane in some way for heating, home heating, hot water, cooking, clothes drying, so forth. So, yes, it's a large weather-driven component.

48:04Carol Massar:All right. So, yeah. So, when I, you know, I was thinking about your business. And, you know, Michael, you guys have been around for 30 years. You're at the New York Stock Exchange. You rang the bell yesterday. And so, you've seen a lot of different market cycles. How much does your business really change? Or is it just so, is it mostly closely tied to weather? Or does economic cycles also play into it? It's a bit of both. About 50 % of our business is residential, and most of that is heat-related demand. But even with that, obviously, economic factors do affect how the consumer thinks about their own budgets and where they spend their money.

48:46So, in challenging times, you can see some conservation kick in. But the other 50 % of our businesses is providing energy to commercials, commercial businesses, industrial uses, government uses, agricultural uses. And, you know, frankly, because of the resilience of propane and the portability and the reliability, we're starting to find even more respect and more uses for propane in areas that people probably didn't imagine a few years ago. So things like EV charging stations and even small-scale power generation for data centers. These are areas where the portability and the ability to stand up a propane storage and deliver to that storage wherever the demand is, is a real advantage that we have.

49:43So are you saying in some cases there are EV charging stations that are off the grid and instead powered by propane, or is that a backup power source? No, that's the prime power for some of those off-grid charging stations. There's a generator behind the scenes that's powered by propane. So interesting. I was having a conversation with someone in the newsroom earlier about EVs, and he was basically like, you're just using carbon from a different source when you're using EVs. Well, you've got to charge it.

50:10Carol Massar:You've got to charge those batteries, which is why you think about not a perfect solution. Hey, Mike, one thing I do wonder, as you say that there are new uses coming, and I find that interesting, small power for data centers. When we've talked about the power grab that's going on, a lot of it fueled by the data center growth that we are seeing. We've talked about higher energy costs overall. Does that ultimately lead to more people using propane or more businesses using propane? I'm just curious, because we've said all hands on deck when it comes to energy sources, whether it's nuclear, solar, wind, of course, carbon, like it's all going to be needed.

50:50Carol Massar:So I wonder what's where does propane fit in potentially? Yeah, we have the same philosophy. We are all about all the above energy sources to meet the increasing demands that are faced by everything power, whether it's data centers, whether it's the expansion of EV charging, EV penetration, electrification. All that is still going to need energy in some form. And propane has a real role to play. And it happens to be one of the cleanest sources of fossil-based energy because it's a byproduct of refining and processing. So you're going to have it whether bad carbons are taken out. Well, how careful do you have to be?

51:39Carol Massar:I was telling Tim, I sail and, you know, we use propane on a boat, but you have to have the tanks above decks in the cockpit. You don't want the propane. It's a heavy gas, if you will. And you don't want that going to the builds, right? because you can blow up your boat. So there are risks. So how do those, that's extreme, but that's bad. But we've been, you know, you never put the propane down below. Um, so I'm just wondering, does that limit how you guys can use it or no? Cause you have the tanks outside and you can kind of put it anywhere. Yeah. I mean, first of all, we don't like talk about things blowing up, but, uh, Hey, I don't either.

52:17Carol Massar:All I know is my husband, we're, we're pretty stern with anybody, like with the propane tanks. But actually, if you think about all the uses, and what's unfortunate is propane is not well understood. And it's really our job to do a better job of advocating for propane in so many versatile uses in so many settings. So it really is an energy source that a lot of people touch and are accustomed to utilizing. It is very safe. The scenario that you're talking about, the tanks, as long as nothing's leaking and they don't find an ignition source, then they're safe. Generally, we don't necessarily advocate for utilizing the tanks indoors.

53:07But the reality is the appliances that are running on propane are indoors as well. So safety is our highest priority.

53:17Carol Massar:No, totally get, totally get. There's nothing more that we take seriously than safety. It's why we like talking to you. It's an education on this part of the market. Mike Stavilla, he's president and CEO of Suburban Propane. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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