Oil to Extend Gains as Iran Disruptions Drag On

8 Sep 2026 · 44 min · 21 chapters

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In short

Oil-focused segment: The episode explains how the Iran–U.S. conflict is keeping oil prices elevated by disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and by damaging energy infrastructure.

Guest

Mia Gendis, Bloomberg News oil markets reporter. Background: covers oil markets for Bloomberg News.

Key claims

the market is “laser-focused” on war impacts; the main question is how much volume is moving through Hormuz; industry consensus is 7–10 million barrels/day now vs ~20 million pre-war, with ships “going dark” (turning off transponders) making tracking difficult.

Notable examples

Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities; a hit near Jazon (Jazan) refinery (~400,000 bpd) that is offline and still recovering from July attacks. She also links refinery constraints globally (Middle East, Russia/Ukraine refinery curtailments) to high refined product prices (diesel over $5.90/gal per AAA).

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Impact of War on Oil Prices

2:02 to 4:00

Discussion on how the war and geopolitical tensions are affecting oil prices.

“Either way, we've been creeping closer and closer.”

Choke Points in Oil Flow

4:00 to 6:12

Exploration of the challenges in oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Yeah, daily national average for diesel, according to AAA, over 590 a gallon right now.”

Refinery Capacity Challenges

6:12 to 8:00

Analysis of current refinery capabilities and their impact on oil products.

“In terms of refined products, and we could go through the list of what's refined, jet fuel, diesel, gasoline.”

Refinery Capacity Challenges

8:27 to 10:39

Analysis of current refinery capabilities and their impact on oil products.

“Has the AI moment arrived at corporate offices worldwide?”

Discussion on Apple’s Foldable Phone

10:39 to 14:00

Exploration of Apple's foldable phone project and its implications.

“Mark, the road to a foldable phone for Apple.”

The Challenges of Foldable Phones

14:00 to 17:23

Learn about the complexities and manufacturing challenges of foldable phone technology.

“Hey, Mark, that would be Tim Cook, not me, Tim.”

Apple's Market Strategy for Foldable Phones

17:24 to 19:17

Explore Apple's cautious approach to entering the foldable phone market and the potential impact.

“I've been playing with the Samsung foldable phone, the Samsung Z Fold 8, which is going to be quite similar.”

New Features and Upgrades in Apple's Lineup

19:18 to 22:26

Find out about the expected features and improvements in Apple's upcoming devices.

“Mark, the carrier trade-in programs and also the, not the financing, but the way that Apple is doing this, or is it financing?”

Iran's Nuclear Capabilities and Geopolitical Tensions

25:01 to 28:00

Understand the current dynamics of the conflict involving Iran's nuclear ambitions and its implications.

“Put the power of Oppenheimer thinking to work for you.”

Iran's Nuclear Program and U.S. Strategy

28:00 to 29:37

Discussion on the complexities of Iran's nuclear ambitions and the U.S. response.

“But the focus of this war was much less, in terms of what was hit, it was much less the nuclear side.”
Show all 21 chapters

Challenges of Addressing Nuclear Threats

29:38 to 31:04

Exploration of the challenges in addressing Iran's nuclear capabilities and the implications of military actions.

“something that were more durable and something that were better.”

Consequences of U.S. Policy on Iran

31:05 to 33:26

Analysis of the long-term consequences of U.S. actions on Iran's nuclear status and regional stability.

“You know, and that kind of goes back to the beginning of this war.”

Mark Champion's Insights on Iran

33:27 to 33:54

Mark Champion discusses the current state of affairs regarding Iran's nuclear program and strategic considerations.

“He needs to put the issue back at the heart of the Iran agenda.”

Mark Champion's Insights on Iran

35:21 to 36:17

Mark Champion discusses the current state of affairs regarding Iran's nuclear program and strategic considerations.

“You already know how AI is changing how everyday work gets done, how much ground you can cover, and how fast a team can scale.”

Market Trends and AI Investment Concerns

36:18 to 42:00

Discussion on market trends, AI investments, and potential overcapacity issues.

“At Oppenheimer, we're proven because we're grounded in discipline.”

Exploring Analogies in Market Trends

42:00 to 44:35

Learn about comparisons between current market trends and past tech booms.

“I'm not really coming up with one right now.”

The Awesome Portfolio Explained

44:35 to 46:45

Discover the structure and expected returns of the Awesome Portfolio.

“The new book, it's out now, The Awesome Portfolio, A Simple Stress-Free Approach to Investing.”

The Role of Cash in Investing

46:45 to 48:54

Understand the importance of cash and liquidity in investment strategies.

“Well, the funny thing is, is that in 1979, cash was the best performing bucket in the portfolio.”

Adjusting Investment Allocations Over Time

48:54 to 52:49

Learn strategies for managing and reallocating investments as market conditions change.

“They might have a$400 ,000 house and have$80 ,000 in equity, and then maybe they have$50 ,000 liquid.”

Jared Dillian's Background and Insights

52:49 to 53:24

Gain insights into Jared Dillian's experiences in finance and his approach to investing.

“And certainly when they had so much exposure and you didn't, it just kind of happened.”

Jared Dillian's Background and Insights

53:44 to 55:55

Gain insights into Jared Dillian's experiences in finance and his approach to investing.

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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Bloomberg Businessweek Daily is brought to you by HPE, bringing you the self-driving network, a network that's self-optimizing, self-healing, and self-protecting, and only continues to get smarter. Learn more at hpe.com slash networking.

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0:56Carol Massar:Healthcare doesn't always work great. If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it. That's the kind of stuff Optum is changing. They're using data and technology to integrate patient care, pharmacy, and everything else. So healthcare is connected, not complicated. What's that look like? Cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person. How you need it. Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Learn more at business.optum.com. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily.

1:37Carol Massar:Reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead. With insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. With Carol Masser and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio. I'm going to bring in Mia Gendis. She's got to make sense of all of it. She's Bloomberg News oil markets reporter. Either way, we've been creeping closer and closer. The directionality, you're correct, Carol. All right, let's get to it. Mia, we did see a rally in both Brent and WTI. We backed off.

2:16Carol Massar:And so, you know, how do you read what matters to oil prices, global oil prices, longer term? Is it all the war? or are there other fundamentals at play here? And I'm just wondering, are we starting to kind of settle in just at a higher level here? Sure. Hi, guys. Thanks for having me. Always fun to be here. I think for all intents and purposes, the oil market is just laser-focused on the war. And the question right now that's on everyone's minds is how much volume is moving through Hormuz and how do we get that number up? So what we saw today was a hit by the Houthi rebels on several energy facilities in Saudi Arabia.

2:57And that's a little bit of a sore spot for the market right now. What are those energy facilities?

3:01Carol Massar:What do we know about? Like, what exactly has been hit? So a lot of them were domestic facilities. So the reason that the price didn't go higher today is because a lot of that feeds into the domestic market there and wouldn't necessarily impact the global market. But of course, we had a hit near Jazon, which hosts a huge oil refinery, right? So it runs like 400 ,000 barrels a day. And it's actually currently offline, which is another reason that maybe prices didn't go higher. It's still sort of recouping from some attacks that we saw there in July. But just any intent and action of Iran or its proxies to target that infrastructure at this time, I think is just really stoking a lot of fear in the market.

3:46because as I'm sure you guys have been talking about endlessly, we're seeing really high refined products prices. So when we see damage to facilities that are actually processing them, there's a worry that the prices could go even higher than the really exorbitant rates that we're seeing right now. Yeah, daily national average for diesel, according to AAA, over 590 a gallon right now. I mean, we're going to talk about that with Mike McKee in just a minute and the flow through to the larger economy. But Mia, before we do that, I want to hear about what specifically is the choke point. Certainly the Strait of Hormuz is, but what is it about the Strait of Hormuz?

4:22Is it that ships don't want to go through because of concerns about getting attacked? Is it because insurance companies refuse to insure those ships? Is it because of a blockade set up? Like, what is it specifically that is affecting flow right now? It's really everything all at once, right? We have a blockade by the Iranians on U.S. or U.S.-linked ships. We have a blockade by the U.S. on Iranian ships. We have this bifurcated sort of passageway right now where we have...

4:51Carol Massar:I mean, I understand why oil prices are higher. We have the Iranian side, which is controlled by the RGC that's hugging the north. We have the U.S. and Omani side on the south. And it's sort of tricky to go through either because the party running the other gets mad at you if you use the route that's not theirs. We have a lot of pipelines, like the East-West pipeline, for example, that are running capacity. That bypasses the straight. Exactly, that bypasses the straight. But it's obviously not enough. There's not enough capacitor to totally make up what the Hormuz was for the market prior to this war.

5:31Carol Massar:How much are we down from prior to the war? So it's hard to know at the moment because a lot of the ships that are moving through Hormuz are actually doing this thing called going dark. So they're turning off their transponders to try to avert the wrath of the Iranian regime and move that oil through quietly. So they're harder to track nowadays. And no one has an exact estimate. If you did, you'd be able to make a lot of money. But we believe, and the industry consensus at the moment is that the numbers moving through Hormuz at the moment are somewhere between 7 to 10 million, but prior to the war, it was about 20.

6:09So half capacity at the most. In the best case scenario, we're 50 % down.

6:13Carol Massar:Yeah. In terms of refined products, and we could go through the list of what's refined, jet fuel, diesel, gasoline. Certain refineries are set up to refine certain types of oil, correct? What is that, that infrastructure? Because my understanding is to, you know, the kind of oil that we need to refine, we don't necessarily make here. And to change refineries, it's expensive or to rebuild new ones, it takes time and it takes a lot of money. Like people don't just do this quickly or easily. Absolutely. And the problem is that refinery capacity is down, not just in the Middle East. I mentioned Jozon, for example, is one of those plants where we don't see as many products coming out as we did before.

6:54But also in Russia, which was a major export center where Ukraine is just basically pummeling their refineries and curtailing the amount that's coming out from that region. So the problem is that the U.S. is producing a lot. Some refineries in some parts of the country are running at 103 % capacity, if you can imagine. But it still doesn't close that gap that's being created by boars across the world. So the question right now, I don't think is, can this refinery run this specific type of distillate or jet fuel, although obviously people that are looking at that niche very closely do care about that.

7:37But it's more just like, how do we increase the amount of distillate gasoline jet fuel that's coming out overall?

7:44Carol Massar:All right. Yeah. It's certainly something that we see continually playing out in the markets, depending on the tone of the narrative between this war, between the U.S. and Iran. Mia, thank you so much. Mia Gindis, She is Bloomberg News Oil Markets reporter joining us here in studio. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

8:07Bloomberg Businessweek Daily is brought to you by HPE, bringing you the self-driving network, a network that's self-optimizing, self-healing and self-protecting and only continues to get smarter. Learn more at HPE.com slash networking.

8:22Carol Massar:This is the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Now with ChatGPT work. I'm Carol Masser. Has the AI moment arrived at corporate offices worldwide? Not yet, and it's perhaps several years away, according to one survey of corporate recruiters who circle the world's business schools each fall and spring. Bloomberg's Rob Mandelbaum notes that according to the Graduate Management Admission Council, the skills recruiters sought most among 2026 graduates of business school master's programs, including MBAs, were communication, problem solving, and adaptability, which changed little from last year.

8:59Carol Massar:Training in artificial intelligence tools ranked in the bottom third of the skills list, but recruiters did say AI-specific training will be more important in five years. On that, recruiters rated current graduates as only somewhat prepared or less to work with AI tools and said business schools are not doing a good job of teaching AI skills. Bottom line, according to the survey, what most companies want when it comes to AI skills is for candidates to be able to automate routine work. That's the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects.

9:34Carol Massar:Get started at chatGPT.com today by selecting work mode, available on plus and pro plans. You already know how AI is changing how everyday work gets done, how much ground you can cover, and how fast a team can scale. To stay ahead, you need the tools that give you a competitive advantage, built for this new era. Welcome to Agentic Revenue. Adio is the CRM for this world. It meets you where you work, compounds every customer signal into context, then acts on it across your pipeline to let you move in on match speed and scale. With agents and automations for every job in revenue, Adio orchestrates your work around the clock.

10:12Built to handle the scale of your workloads, extensible with API and MCP, and with the infrastructure to keep up with your most ambitious agents. Loved by high-growth startups like Granola, Modal, and Etched, Adio runs the work behind every win. That's Adio, the agentic CRM, the intelligent system that never sleeps. Picks up leads at 2 a.m., catches renewals before they slip, hands you the answer before you ask. Try Adio free at adio.com slash iHeart. That's adio.com slash iHeart.

10:45Carol Massar:you're listening to the bloomberg business week daily podcast catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 eastern listen on apple carplay and android auto with the bloomberg business app or watch us live on youtube how often do you change your phones we both have apple phones full disclosure i mean less now than i used to so i have uh 13 max pro or 13 pro aren't we up to like 16 or so we're up to 17 yeah i think mine's a 16 yeah i mean i kind of wait until i think no mark german is horrified when he finds out how old my technology is i do need a new phone though it kind of uh this is the year for me well listen um what we want to talk about is something that energized apple's old ceo who just moved aside uh we're talking about tim cook after a trip in 2020 it's a debut of sorts though for apple's new ceo as well a long time in the making it will be a defining moment of sorts for one of the world's largest and best known companies with more Bloomberg News and managing editor for Global Consumer Tech, Mark Gurman in the Bloomberg News Los Angeles Bureau.

11:47Mark, the road to a foldable phone for Apple. Tell us more about this project codenamed V68 inside the company. Yeah, this is a long time coming. This is something that started as an exploratory project into foldable screens over a decade ago, evolved into the idea of building an iPad mini that can unfold into a larger screen iPad. And then after Tim Cook got involved in the project, then shifted to Apple actually building a foldable iPhone at the high end of the lineup. Tim Cook came back from Asia, big trip in 2020, China, Korea, you name it, saw the Huawei and the Samsung folds everywhere, became obsessed with the category, thought Apple should play into it and really push the hardware engineering team to develop something.

12:37Then back in 2023, they had their aha moment, which was this passport-sized phone. Shorter and wider, better for video, 4x3 aspect ratio, also good for e-book reading. And this is the direction they took. This design, this aha moment intersected with the core technologies coming to a place where Apple thought it actually could bring a product to market. And then they set their sights on 2026. And here we are. This will be debuted tomorrow, not by Tim Cook, but by his successor, John Ternus. And the transition date of September 1, that was intentionally chosen. So Ternus could be the one to introduce this device and sort of put his face and his stamp on it.

13:18Typically, when Apple does a transition, it's not right smack in the middle of the fiscal quarter like this one. They do it at the tail end of the year, the very beginning of the year, April, October. So this has all been timed together very intentionally.

13:30Carol Massar:How big a deal is it for the old CEO, Tim Cook, and for the new CEO, John Ternus, and also really for the company overall, Mark? Well, it's not a big deal for the old guy because he doesn't have as much at stake as Ternus. If you look at their compensation packages, only half of Apple's performance versus its peer group comes into play when it comes to Tim's shares moving forward. for Ternus, you know, 75 % of Apple's performance impacts how much he's going to get paid on a stock basis. And so it means a lot more for Ternus. Hey, Mark, that would be Tim Cook, not me, Tim. I don't have any of the Apple shares, unfortunately.

14:12So Mark, when you think about the tech that goes into manufacturing this, can you explain, you know, this is Tim Cook's specialty, supply chain manufacturing logistics can you explain what goes into making a phone that folds uh sort of seamlessly and where it's done you know when they launched the first foldable phones that being samsung in 2019 there were a lot of problems i'll actually never forget so i was one of the handful of people to get a review unit of the new samsung phone fold in 2019 so i flew to new york i met with them it was all secretive etc so i get this review unit and then you take it out of the box and it has a film on top of it.

14:53Um, and I thought it's just the film that comes on any product you buy. There's a film on it. You rip it off the screen and you get using it, but no, no, no. This film that I removed from this review unit was actually tied to the phone. So I removed the film and then the next day, uh, the phone is completely broken. It doesn't work anymore. It's crazy. And there's like no warning label or anything on it. And they never discussed this. And so I tweeted pictures of it. When viral, Samsung ends up needing to postpone their foldable phone launch for months and redesign the hardware to make it so the film can't be removed.

15:35Long story short, my tweet cost Samsung probably tens of millions, if not more, hundreds of millions of dollars and postpone this launch. But that's all to say that these are very complicated new display technologies. And there's a reason why Apple has waited in the background and worked on this in the background for many years versus just deploying what five years ago amounted to a beta prototype-like technology. Now's the time where this core tech gets you to a place where you don't need a big crease, where the phone could be more durable, where it could withstand water and sand and dust to some extent.

16:12And the complexities here necessitated a new type of glass cover that Apple and Corning, their longtime glass partner, have co-developed for this display. And so it's going to be pretty high tech. And of course, as the Siron says, it's going to be pretty expensive too.

16:31Carol Massar:Well, you know, to follow on that, Mark, Apple, as we've often said with you, not always the first to market maybe with something or certainly with a smartphone. And yet when they do enter it, they make their mark and lead the way. Might that be the case here too? Well, they couldn't really enter it till now because people are going to buy foldable phones from Apple three years ago and they're going to destroy them and it's going to hurt Apple's reputation. And so the stakes for Apple are much different. I think I've told this story on your show before, but when you were thinking about the Apple car, what was one of the big reasons why Apple could ever bring a car to market?

17:03Because they were worried that every time an Apple car would get into a car accident or there would be an issue, it would be disastrous to Apple's brand. And Apple's brand is such that they're not going risk those things. And so they weren't going to bring this foldable phone out. Obviously, it's much less dangerous than a car, depending on who you ask, I guess, until this was ready. Have you seen it?

17:25Carol Massar:Have you played with it? I've been playing with the Samsung foldable phone, the Samsung Z Fold 8, which is going to be quite similar. So if anyone has a Z Fold 8, you can imagine that as what the new Apple phone is going look like but obviously apple have their fit and finish and what have you do one thing that uh i've you know we've all found familiar about these apple events is they they highlight partners too that uh use these devices so is there going to be in your view some sort of maybe software partner a developer that will showcase the way you can use this phone differently tomorrow when when Ternus takes the stage?

18:06I think it's possible. The new SDK, the iOS 27s, they have some new tools in there for testing various new screen sizes, which was an obvious hint that this is foldable phone coming. And so I think developers are ready and developers are prepared and developers are excited and it gives them a leg up over the Android ecosystem, which until recently has not really done a good job for foldable phones.

18:29Carol Massar:$2 ,000 or almost$2 ,000. It's pretty To start with. To start with. I'm just curious, how big a market is this, or how big a market size could this potentially be when you come to kind of all cell phones, smartphones, if you will? I mean, the market right now is about 2 % of sales in the U.S. in terms of all mobile phones across all smartphones. It's double that in China, where this category is growing way faster than the overall smartphone market. I think Apple's going to be able to produce 7 to 10 million units this year, and they're going to sell every one they can get. and it's going to become a status symbol and everyone's going to want one.

19:04Will everyone be able to afford one? Will everyone be able to find one? That's another question. But the levers are there with the new Apple subscription program and the carriers and trade-ins to make this happen for a lot of people. So I think it's going to be quite exciting. Certainly the most exciting iPhone launch in a decade. Okay. Looking forward to that. Mark, the carrier trade-in programs and also the, not the financing, but the way that Apple is doing this, or is it financing? Will you talk a little about that and sort of lessening the sticker shock for some people? Well, it's a leasing program.

19:34So what it means is that you're not taking the price of the phone and chopping it up over 24, 36 or 48 months. What you're doing is basically just getting a monthly fee that Apple determined. And then at the end of your lease term, whether that's 12 months or 24 months or 36 months, you'll have the option to pay off the rest of the phone and keep it or start a new lease at that price or a price close to it for, you know, a successive generation. And the idea with the Apple upgrade program is you get on this plan and then you get the new phone every year and you're constantly paying that same fee and you're constantly sending your old phone back.

20:08Carol Massar:What are you going to be looking for as you check out the new phone? I mean, what is it going to make, you know, are there going to be any limitations based, you know, versus kind of the existing smartphones from Apple or I'm just curious. Well, in addition to being double the price. The cameras are not going to be as good. The battery life is going to be shorter. The camera thing I really want to highlight, because it's not going to have the telephoto lens, which is great for deeper zoom. They're going to try to make up for it in software like they do with the iPhone Air, but the camera system is just not going to be as top tier as what you're going to see in terms of the camera announcements tomorrow for the iPhone 18 Pro, and especially the iPhone 18 Pro Max with the better depth control and more finite adjustments.

20:50And the 18 Pro and Pro Max, they're going to have really high level pro DSLR like camera features. And so this is going to be a big change coming from that type of phone to this foldable phone. But if you're not a camera buff, you know, I think it'll be fine. What if I don't want a foldable phone yet? What are they going to showcase tomorrow? What are they going to showcase tomorrow? So of the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max, the big difference is goodbye orange, hello red or burgundy or wine, whatever they're going to call it. It's a red light color. and it's going to have a much faster processor, two nanometer chip, the A20 Pro, the same chip that's going to be in the foldable phone.

21:26And then the big highlight is going to be the camera system, a pro level camera system, really competing with DSLRs more than they have in the past. So it's going to be pretty advanced. They're going to spend a lot of time with the photography capabilities of the A18 Pro and Pro Max. I think that's what I'm going to get. I don't know if you were listening or were on yet when I was talking about that. I still have the 13. iPhone 7. No, I have the 13. Carol still has the second generation watch.

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21:48Carol Massar:Hey. All right. Well, hey, when you come out here, bring the foldable phone when you get it, Mark. And we'll check it out on set. And I'm sure I'm going to love it. So we'll have fun. Mark's usually right about this. Is there anything else? New earbuds or anything? Real quickly. New Apple Watches. Major new features. More aura. Whip-like in terms of there being a new readiness app and improved heart rate sensing. So nothing major on the watch, but nice little tweaks to stay competitive. Good stuff. Can't wait to see what you think once you get the phone in your hands. It's Bloomberg News, managing editor for Global Consumer Tech, Mark Gurman.

22:21Carol Massar:Mark, along with our own Ed Lovett, they'll be covering that event in Cupertino. Catch their coverage on the Bloomberg tomorrow. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

22:37Carol Massar:This is the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Now with ChatGPT work. I'm Carol Masser. Has the AI moment arrived at corporate offices worldwide? Not yet, and it's perhaps several years away, according to one survey of corporate recruiters who circle the world's business schools each fall and spring. Bloomberg's Rob Mandelbaum notes that, according to the Graduate Management Admission Council, the skills recruiters sought most among 2026 graduates of business school master's programs, including MBAs, were communication, problem-solving, and adaptability, which changed little from last year.

23:14Carol Massar:Training in artificial intelligence tools ranked in the bottom third of the skills list, but recruiters did say AI-specific training will be more important in five years. On that, recruiters rated current graduates as only somewhat prepared or less to work with AI tools and said business schools are not doing a good job of teaching AI skills. Bottom line, according to the survey, what most companies want when it comes to AI skills is for candidates to be able to automate routine work. That's the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects.

23:49Carol Massar:Get started at ChatGPT.com today by selecting Work Mode. Available on Plus and Pro Plans. You already know how AI is changing how everyday work gets done, how much ground you can cover, and how fast a team can scale. To stay ahead, you need the tools that give you a competitive advantage built for this new era. Welcome to Agentic Revenue. Adio is the CRM for this world. It meets you where you work, compounds every customer signal into context, then acts on it across your pipeline to let you move in on match speed and scale. With agents and automations for every job in revenue, Adio orchestrates your work around the clock.

24:26Built to handle the scale of your workloads, extensible with API and MCP, and with the infrastructure to keep up with your most ambitious agents. Loved by high-growth startups like Granola, Modal, and Etched, Adio runs the work behind everyone. That's Adio, the agentic CRM, the intelligent system that never sleeps. Picks up leads at 2 a.m., catches renewals before they slip, hands you the answer before you ask. Try Adio free at adio.com slash iHeart. That's adio.com slash iHeart.

25:01Carol Massar:We believe in starting with your financial goals, not a formula. At Oppenheimer, we put the full strength of our longstanding expertise to work, understanding your life and your ambitions, and designing the precise strategies that build and protect your wealth with confidence across this generation and the next. Put the power of Oppenheimer thinking to work for you. Wealth management, capital markets, investment banking. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

25:41Carol Massar:Or watch us live on YouTube. Hey, we're following, of course, the situation in the Middle East, Iran and U.S., carrying out what appeared to be the largest tit-for-tat tanker strikes yet over this past weekend, pushing oil prices, we talked about this earlier, higher as both nations continue to escalate a six-month war that has disrupted shipping, Tim, and also stoked global inflation. The world is watching all of this. Yeah. And it's now in its sixth month. The president this morning outside the White House on why he says the fight continues. We're right now fighting because we have a certain nation that wanted a nuclear weapon.

26:20Carol Massar:They were very close to getting it. And now they have no chance of getting it. They will never have a nuclear weapon. Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. That, of course, President Trump earlier this morning outside the White House in Washington, D.C. Hey, it's kind of interesting that he said that because as Bloomberg's Mark Champagne asks, quote, when was the last time you heard a meaningful proposal to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear arsenal? Let's get the latest on Mark's Bloomberg Opinion column. Mark is Bloomberg Opinion's international affairs columnist. Kind enough to join us out there in London where it's a little bit later on the day.

26:56Carol Massar:Mark, it is good to have you here with us. We go back and forth with guests on air. You cover this, too. This war initially seemed to be about the denuclearization of Iran. And then that narrative was quickly dropped. And then it was all about the Strait of Hormuz. Is there possibly some talk going on behind the scenes to take away nuclear capabilities from Iran? Are we missing something? What's your read on all of this? Well, there's no sign whatsoever that there are talks between the U.S. and Iran over the nuclear file. What has happened, I mean, as you had the clip there, President Trump routinely says, you know, Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.

27:37Carol Massar:And absolutely, last year, the U.S. bombed nuclear sites in Iran, made that choice after leaving the diplomatic track back in 2018. And then again, you know, the problem with that, as, you know, sort of skeptics of this and previous presidents who didn't take that action have always said, is that you can bomb it. But then you won't have visibility into what they're doing because the Iranians will kick out inspectors. And then, you know, you'll also have given them a reason to go ahead and weaponize their nuclear, you know, their uranium, which is why we ended up, you know, six months later after the program was supposedly obliterated, going to war again in order to destroy the nuclear program, which, you know, apparently, you know, as Trump said, the Israelis believed the Iranians were getting close again, that they were developing underground in secret.

28:41Carol Massar:But the focus of this war was much less, in terms of what was hit, it was much less the nuclear side. And as soon as the trade of Hormuz was closed at the beginning of the war, that became the focus. And now in terms of things that are actually done rather than said, Hormuz is the overwhelming focus. There aren't talks between the U.S. and Iran anymore of a nuclear deal. That was supposed to happen on the memorandum, never did. And then, you know, but now the U.S. is trying to, for lack of better things to do, really, to refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council, something that's going to be quite difficult because Russia and China are there and probably won't cooperate.

29:25So, Mark, in your view, what would be the right approach? Because as you do write, the JCPOA was flawed in the sense that it did have this sunset provision. And you do write that the president could have been justified in stepping away from that because of the sunset, but only if, you know, they were able to use that to come up with something that were more durable and something that were better. What would you argue would be the right approach to nuclear weapons at this stage in the game?

29:48Carol Massar:Well, I mean, this is the problem. We are where we are. You know, if you were able to go back, I think, you know, you would say, OK, you may not like the JCPOA, but when it was enacted, the Iranians had no enriched uranium. They weren't enriching uranium, you know, but extremely small amounts. They had no 20 percent uranium, let alone the 60 percent near weapons grade that they stockpiled after President Trump collapsed the deal. So, you know, you might argue that, you know, the best thing to do would have been to see that deal out and, you know, take the benefits and then go back and say, sorry, we need to negotiate a new one.

30:28Carol Massar:And if you don't, then, you know, we'll impose sanctions, et cetera. But we are where we are. We are now, you know, we've had a war. The diplomatic track is pretty much shot. And it's very hard to see, you know, that what can be done. And the U.S. is essentially now saying, you know, you had Energy Secretary Chris Wright the other day saying that, well, what we're going to do now is just hit their capabilities. Well, the capabilities have been hit, but, you know, you can't destroy know-how. You can't be sure that you have got everything when you have no inspectors. You know, and that kind of goes back to the beginning of this war.

31:14Carol Massar:And I just, you know, you say in your column, given the state of affairs, the airstrikes that the U.S. and Israel carried out in 2025 could also be justified as a measure of last resort if credible evidence had emerged that the Iranians were weaponizing their fuel stocks. But that caveat, which wasn't meant as crucial. I mean, what do we know that they were weaponizing their nuclear stockpiles? I mean, isn't that what this is about? Like trying to get the lay of the land and figuring out if there is indeed a problem. And then if there is a problem, let's make that problem go away. Well, there has always been a problem.

31:49Carol Massar:I mean, they were enriching uranium, which made no, in ways that made no sense. as a civilian program. And so it seems very clear at this point with hindsight that what the former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was doing was had a policy of maintaining Iran as a status of a threshold nuclear state so that he could use that in leverage in talks with the U.S. and talks with the Europeans, et cetera. And that policy really collapsed back last year when the Israelis and then the U.S. attacked the nuclear sites. And the worry after that, particularly in Israel, was that, well, you know, now that we've hit these things and the effect is out, you know, it's quite likely that the Iranians are going to want to actually produce a bomb as a deterrent and no longer be happy with being a threshold state.

32:50Carol Massar:I don't think they had clear evidence. They've never suggested or shown anything. But that was the suspicion. And it was an understandable suspicion because that was always the risk of going in and hitting them. And as you finish up your column, you talk about Hormuz. Hormuz is a problem that will have to be managed. That will be the cost of the mistake President Trump made by going to war in February. But the net result of his actions since 2018 is that the Iranian nuclear question is less resolved, more dangerous and more likely to result in a nuclear arms race than it was when he destroyed the JCPOA.

33:27Carol Massar:He needs to put the issue back at the heart of the Iran agenda. It is amazing, though, how many conversations. It's not what everybody's talking about anymore. And that includes the administration. We're talking about it. We are. Mark Champion is talking about it. It's a piece to think about in a big way. Mark Champion, thank you so much. Bloomberg Opinions, international affairs columnist. Joining us, of course, from London, he's Mark Champion. Check out his story in its entirety, his column. It's on the Bloomberg. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

34:01Carol Massar:This is the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Now with ChatGPT work. I'm Carol Masser. Has the AI moment arrived at corporate offices worldwide? Not yet, and it's perhaps several years away, according to one survey of corporate recruiters who circle the world's business schools each fall and spring. Bloomberg's Rob Mandelbaum notes that, according to the Graduate Management Admission Council, the skills recruiters sought most among 2026 graduates of business school master's programs, including MBAs, were communication, problem-solving, and adaptability, which changed little from last year.

34:37Carol Massar:Training in artificial intelligence tools ranked in the bottom third of the skills list, but recruiters did say AI-specific training will be more important in five years. On that, recruiters rated current graduates as only somewhat prepared or less to work with AI tools and said business schools are not doing a good job of teaching AI skills. Bottom line, according to the survey, what most companies want when it comes to AI skills is for candidates to be able to automate routine work. That's the Bloomberg Tech Minute brought to you by ChatGPT. Put ChatGPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects.

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36:53Carol Massar:You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube. I want to jump right into it because we've been excited about this one. He's the editor and founder of the Daily Dirt App, which is a newsletter, if you don't know. He's a former Bloomberg Opinion contributor. He's also the author of several books, including the latest, which just came out today. It is called The Awesome Portfolio, A Simple Stress-Free Approach to Investing. Back with us is Jared Dillian.

37:26And he's here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Welcome back. And congratulations on the new book. We're going to get to the book. But before we do that, I want to talk a little bit about the markets. Because you were a trader at Lehman Brothers. Now, in addition to writing books, you have the Daily Market Newsletter that you've been writing for close to 20 years at this point, which is like before people were doing this. And you do it old school. You send a PDF. You're not like substacking this. Substack actually tried to get me to switch over. And I said, look, I'm not paying you guys 10 % to do this.

38:01I mean, is the reason why? Because you have that direct relationship and you don't need a third party to take a cut. Yeah. So there's no incentive for you essentially right now. Okay. We could get to the economics of that. We do want to start on markets. And specifically, your newsletter today. I love this reference you have to The Economist cover. So Jensen Wong on the cover of The Economist. You say, quote, the freaking economist literally has a cover with Jensen Wong as a magician. Check, please. That's a wrap. AI is doomed. Time to sell NVIDIA. That's it? Put a cork in it? Yeah. I mean, you guys all know magazine covers work, especially The Economist.

38:42Like The Economist somehow manages to like top tick and bottom tick everything. And it's just really the nature of the cover. He's a sorcerer. He's a magician on the cover. It's like the time person of the year. It's like the SI jinx. Like this stuff is not to mention there were four magazine covers on AI just last week. Two of them were from time. Right. So and I might add the Barron's cover this week is about bonds saying the new rules for bonds. That checks. Yes. So. So apart. But apart from the sort of like economist curse. Yeah. that you call, as you refer to it. Apart from that, what else about the AI trade has you concerned?

39:25I mean, look, like I've been saying this for a while, so I've been wrong for a while, but it is the nature of capitalism. Whenever you have an investment boom, there is going to be overinvestment and there's going to be malinvestment. At some point, we will build too many data centers. We will have too many. We will have excess capacity. I mean, it happened in 2000 with the telecom build out and global crossing and stuff like that. And typically, as we saw in the dot-com bubble, it was the infrastructure providers that did very poorly, right? Even though that infrastructure that was built was used for years and years and years and realized its potential.

40:10Carol Massar:So the build made sense, but the timeline was longer. Yes. Is that essentially what you think we'll see here, or will it really just be an overbuild? And, you know, like the building of too many homes leading up to the mortgage crisis where homes were left. Yeah, I mean, it's like I said, it's the nature of capitalism. You know, you swing from one extreme to the other. The other thing is, you know, in the commodities world, whenever you have a shortage of something, it will eventually turn into a glut. Right. No matter what the commodity is. So if the commodity is corn or sugar, it also applies to data centers.

40:49It also applies to oil.

40:50Carol Massar:Well, we've talked about this a lot with our Ian King about how that incredibly applies to semiconductors. Yes. And they're very careful about the build-out because they have seen these cycles before. Are you anticipating that that plays out again in terms of just too many chips and so on? 100%. Absolutely. So the timing is the hard part. And if you're a trader, it's impossible to predict with any certainty when something will peak. It's very hard. So what do you do? Well, you look at charts. I mean, that's basically what it comes down to. You look at charts. You look at sentiment. The fundamentals are not really a help because the fundamental case is always most bullish on the highs.

41:36So you're trying to find that inflection point. You're trying to find that second derivative.

41:40Carol Massar:Jared, do you think the conversations around the circular financing, we are right to be concerned about it, that it is so, I keep saying it's just so cozy in terms of companies investing in other companies of things that they need and so on and so forth. Are we stupid to say that that is a warning sign or do you think it makes sense? No, I don't think so. I'm trying to come up with an analogy. I'm not really coming up with one right now. I think we do too because we keep, everyone says, oh, it's just like the tech boom. I don't know that it is like the tech boom. No, I mean, look, there's a lot of analogs between.com and today.

42:14There's a lot of differences. And one is, just a very simple one, is that today it's about 10 companies, and back then it was 2 ,000 companies. You had a multitude of IPOs. And the other one is that now most companies are profitable, and back then they were all unprofitable. But I think the sentiment, the dreamboat, this is the panacea, this is the solution for everything. The sky is the limit. These S1s that say the TAM is space and time, stuff like that. That is not usually stuff you hear on the bottom.

42:51Carol Massar:The total addressable market. $28 trillion as one recent example. And it could be, but it might be in 100 years from now. Who knows? We don't know. Yeah. Right. I want to get to the book, but before we do that, one more thing, because last time you're on with us, which you reminded me was like, when did No Worries come out? Was that January? It was 24. 24. Wow. So it has been a while. Pretty crazy. Yeah. You were very negative for a long time on private equity. And we saw it play out with private credit. I'm wondering where you think we are in that trade. Are you still negative on private equity?

43:24Yeah. Honestly, I think we're about halfway through. Okay. I mean, you know, the pig is working its way through the Python, right? So there's an analogy for a metaphor. There's an image. So what I said in the beginning about private equity and private credit was it would take a really long time to play out. Because, you know, if you think about the financial crisis in the public markets, it was only 21 months from the top in 2007 to the bottom in 2009. That seems like a long time, but that's actually very fast. we are the private private equity is our i got bearish on in like 2023 and it because there is no bid because there is no traded price it just takes a long time to work its way through

44:09Carol Massar:the system so but when it does work its way through the system manageable systemic i mean it like who gets hurt i mean all the holders of private credit probably get hurt i imagine um it's but you see there's no there's no catalyst there's no spark you know so i look everything we just talked about with a higher rates a higher a continued higher rate environment possibly all these things i don't know yeah we um we're gonna be speaking with william cohen later this week he's the author of a new book money to burn it's about leon black and apollo if you guys want more on private credit speaking of new books it is pub day for jared dilley and He's editor and founder of the Daily Dirt Map.

44:54The new book, it's out now, The Awesome Portfolio, A Simple Stress-Free Approach to Investing. Okay, The Awesome Portfolio. I remember The Awesome Portfolio because this was a chapter in No Worries. You made this chapter into an entire book. The Awesome Portfolio, what is it? So The Awesome Portfolio is 20 % each stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate. And I'll give you the returns. Everybody cares about the returns. This portfolio has averaged 9 % a year with half the drawdown, sorry, excuse me, half the volatility of the S &P 500. And the worst drawdown in history was down 12 % in a year.

45:35The S &P 500 over the last 100 years has returned 10%. Over the last 54 years has returned 11%. And as you know, it has breathtaking volatility. That's the reason you love the Austin portfolio. It's not, you know, you make the point and you made the point in No Worries, too. Like, yes, you could invest in the S &P 500, but most people don't have the stomach to handle those drawdowns. Yeah, and I think, you know, we've had a bull run for 18 years. And people have forgotten what that feels like when you have a really, really bad bear market. We had a bear market in 2022. It was down about 20%, and that felt pretty bad.

46:17But, you know, the conventional wisdom is you buy the index, you dollar cost average, you hold, you ride out the volatility. But over a 40-year investing career, you're probably going to have one 50 % drawdown or more. And how you act in that drawdown determines your returns at the end.

46:36Carol Massar:So just so you don't have a heart attack, basically? Yes. I mean, this is the stress-free way to do it. So basically what you're doing is you're trading 1 % in returns for half the volatility and very little drawdowns. It's so much cash. Tim, we talked about this a lot. It's a lot of cash. It's a lot of gold. That's what it feels like. Well, the funny thing is, is that in 1979, cash was the best performing bucket in the portfolio. It was returning 14%. In 1979? Yeah. Okay. So cash can also be your friend. The other reason to have cash is it's an option to buy something cheaper in the future. So right now the conventional wisdom is that you are fully invested because cash is a drag on returns.

47:25I try to have 20 % of my net worth in cash at all times. Why? Because if I go on vacation to Miami and there's a condo I want, I can just write a check. I don't have to sell stocks. I don't have to pay taxes. There's an emergency, a medical emergency. Like, cash, like, it's liquidity just cures. There's no problem that can't be solved with lots of cash.

47:48Carol Massar:And is this, when you say stocks or you say bonds, it's not just U.S. stocks, it's global stocks. Or, like, where's, because I was looking at some of, you know, folks responding to what you say. And they're, like, way too conservative. This is international exposure. Like, is there international exposure in here? So the returns are calculated only with U.S. exposure using the VTI, the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index. What I say in the book is international exposure is a good thing. Like you should actually try to replicate basically the world basket, which is about 70 % U.S., 20 % non-U.S., and 10 % emerging markets.

48:24But for the sake of simplicity, the calculations are all U.S. Wait, isn't there an index fund you can buy that is just everything? VT. And that's the whole stock market? That's the whole world. And that works for the 20 %? I talked about that in there, yes. So that can be the 20%. Okay. Is your primary residence part of that real estate portfolio? Yeah, it can be. So what I've found is that most people are over-allocated to real estate, most middle-class people. It's the biggest purchase most people will ever make. So they might have...

48:54Carol Massar:If they're lucky enough to make it. Exactly. They might have a$400 ,000 house and have$80 ,000 in equity, and then maybe they have$50 ,000 liquid. so they're massively over allocated to real estate. So what they should do is plow cash into the other four asset classes to bring it up to 20 % across the board. Wait, say that again? So let's say you have$50 ,000 liquid, maybe in stocks or cash or something like that, and$80 ,000 equity in your house. You would want to bring up stocks, bonds, cash, and gold up to that$80 ,000 level across the board. Okay. Do you, at this point, put your money where your mouth is with managing your own money in the Austin portfolio?

49:39I do, and I've been doing it for a while. I've been actively managing a little bit. So for a long time, I was over-allocated to gold, and that worked. And I'm still over-allocated to gold. I've now under-allocated to stocks, but I'm over-allocated to bonds. Actually, in the last couple months, I moved into bonds. So I do actively manage it. But yeah, the framework for the Austin portfolio is still there. Well, when do you rebalance this? Like if you're not you as a trader, but like somebody who's investing in the Austin portfolio, when do you rebalance? Just one day a year. It can be December 31st.

50:15It can be your birthday. It can be whatever. But you do have to rebalance it once a year. So you have to sell the winners. Sell the winners, buy the losers. Yep. And for example, gold last year was up 60%. Right. So if you didn't sell gold at the end of the year, you would have taken a hit in 2026. I want to know the tax treatment of this portfolio because a lot of people like to hold on to the index forever because it's tax efficient. But if you're selling each year and rebalancing, doesn't that hit you with tax bills? I do not talk about tax consequences in the book. It is not very tax efficient.

50:49I can tell you that at some point I want to come out with a tax efficient product that you can buy, that you can invest in over time. Like an ETF? Like an ETF. So you could create an awesome portfolio ETF? Yes, I want to do that. Okay. Oh, wait. That's pretty cool. So is that coming? Hopefully. Soon? Hopefully. This year? So how would that work? uh so basically the etf would just hold five other etfs so it would hold vti bnd vnq tbil and iau for gold and because the rebalancing would happen within the etf wrapper the people who own the etf wouldn't necessarily get hit with the taxes i don't know how that works so it's it's a little i don't want to get into it's a little more complicated than that but Yeah, okay.

51:42That makes sense that it's more complicated. It is taxes.

51:44Carol Massar:But it'll be more tax efficient. Yes. Okay. Interesting. I love that. I want to ask you, this 2020, in terms of the breakdowns, you're saying that somebody get their first job, they're investing, that's what they should be doing. Yes, absolutely. Right off the bat. And the cool thing about it is, unlike the conventional way you do it, where you shift from stocks to bonds over time, it's a one-size-fits-all portfolio. You can have it when you're 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70. You can have it through your whole life. You don't have to worry about this shifting your asset allocation over time. It's the same.

52:20Why did you come up with this? I came up with it because—

52:24Carol Massar:What was it that you saw, read, and said, yeah? I came up with this because I got hurt really badly in the financial crisis. I worked at Lehman. I had a bunch of Lehman stock that got vaporized. I personally took a drawdown of 50%. And I said, I never want to do this again. Nobody should ever have to experience this. I want to create something that will prevent people from feeling the way I felt on March of 2009. You know? Yeah. No, I know. That was a super rough time for people. And certainly when they had so much exposure and you didn't, it just kind of happened. Jared, you were early in your career when you went out and built this newsletter business.

52:59You've written a bunch of books, and we are grateful every time you stop by. Jared Dillian is the editor and founder of the Daily Dirt Nap, formerly a trader at Lehman Brothers. He's got a bunch of books out. The newest one, it's out today, The Awesome Portfolio, A Simple, Stress-Free Approach to Investing. I guess he's also a DJ, so if you're out in the Seattle area, too, you can catch his gig later this week. Jared, congratulations on the book. Good to see you. Thanks very much.

53:23Carol Massar:All right. Be well. Be well. Talk soon. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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55:17That's Adio, the agentic CRM, the intelligent system that never sleeps. Picks up leads at 2 a.m., catches renewals before they slip, hands you the answer before you ask. Try Adio free at adio.com slash iHeart. That's adio.com slash iHeart.

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From the publisher

The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy. Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

Brent oil advanced to the highest since late July due to strikes on Middle East energy infrastructure, stoking fears of fresh supply tightness. The global benchmark edged up to settle close to $98 a barrel after reported explosions at Iran's vital export hub Kharg Island. Markets are increasingly pricing a prolonged Mideast conflict, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts modestly raising the bank's oil-price estimates on the assumption that shipping disruptions will persist.

On this episode, Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with:

  • Mia Gindis, Bloomberg News Oil Markets Reporter
  • Mark Gurman, Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech on Apple’s $2,000-Plus Foldable iPhone Was a Decade in the Making
  • Marc Champion, Bloomberg Opinion International Affairs Columnist on America’s Iran War Forgot About Nukes
  • Jared Dillian, Editor & Founder of 'The Daily Dirtnap' on new book 'THE AWESOME PORTFOLIO: A Simple, Stress-Free Approach to Investing'

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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