Schwab Considering Prediction Markets, Netflix Earnings

16 Apr 2026 · 50 min · 21 chapters

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In short

Schwab’s earnings and strategy (AI, crypto, private shares, lending, teen accounts), including whether to launch prediction markets; plus a regulatory/AI segment on ESMA and the risks of advanced AI models, and a Netflix investor discussion after earnings.

Guests (backgrounds)

  1. Rick Wurster (Schwab executive; leads Schwab’s investor-facing strategy/earnings discussion).
  2. Verena Ross (Chair of ESMA, EU market regulator; focuses on market supervision, private credit, AI governance).
  3. Margie Murphy (Bloomberg cyber reporter; covers Anthropic “Mythos” cybersecurity risks).
  4. Eric Clark (AccuVest Global Advisors CIO; portfolio manager of the LOGO ETF with Netflix as a major holding).

Key claims

  • Schwab: record quarter; trading activity up but retail taking smaller, shorter-term bets; teen accounts drive younger engagement; Spot Bitcoin/Ether launching soon; prediction markets only if financially oriented and likely via CBOE-like structures (fall timing possible but not committed); crypto timing due to building custody/books and bank constraints; AI will scale insights and advisor/service productivity.
  • ESMA: markets remain orderly despite volatility; focus on risks (cyber, operational, private credit valuation/liquidity mismatches); push to simplify regulation while enabling innovation; AI requires guardrails for investor protection and orderly/stable markets.
  • Mythos reporting: AI can chain software bugs into exploits; could enable espionage, data theft, ransomware-like outcomes; “defense” will lag “offense” for ~12 months.
  • Netflix: investor says short-term noise is manageable; expects margin/content quality improvements and AI-enhanced business; sports is a key lever.

Notable examples

  • Schwab: teen accounts; launching Spot Bitcoin/Ether; Forge acquisition for private shares; AI “investment portfolio insights” planned for May; prediction markets framed as binary options tied to financial events.
  • ESMA: private credit redemption/liquidity concerns and interconnectivity with banking/insurance.
  • Mythos: exploit via chaining four flaws to break into secure software.
  • Netflix: LOGO ETF position; discussion of Reed Hastings stepping away; emphasis on sports and ad-tier/free-cash-flow upside.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Schwab's Strong Quarter Performance

2:17 to 3:56

An overview of Schwab's impressive financial results and growth.

“Talk to us about the quarter, because on several metrics, you guys definitely beat.”

Retail Investor Trends in 2023

3:56 to 5:14

Insights into the behaviors of retail investors in the current market.

“But we're thrilled with how we're delivering for clients, thrilled with how we're performing as a business.”

Empowering Young Investors

5:14 to 6:49

Discussing the launch of Schwab's teen accounts and their impact.

“So I think clients are both engaged and acting very wisely.”

Schwab's Approach to Prediction Markets

6:49 to 9:08

Exploring Schwab's potential involvement in prediction markets.

“a lot of young investors who are thriving on our platform.”

Crypto Offerings at Schwab

9:08 to 12:42

Understanding Schwab's strategy for launching cryptocurrency trading.

“And I know there's some clients that would appreciate that.”

The Role of AI in Schwab's Future

12:42 to 14:05

How AI is shaping Schwab's services and improving efficiency.

“I got to say, there was so much in the earnings call that really is playing into the narrative today, Rick.”

The Impact of AI on Financial Services

14:05 to 14:49

Discover how AI is revolutionizing personal finance and client services.

“That's going to add value to their financial life.”

Geopolitical Impacts on Financial Markets

17:27 to 19:43

Examine how geopolitical events are affecting market stability and investor confidence.

“Yeah, we're talking about the European Securities and Markets Authority.”

Regulatory Challenges and Market Risks

19:43 to 23:25

Understand the balance between regulatory frameworks and market innovation.

“And in particular, from our vantage point, it's obviously the impact that will have on the broader market, how it would actually flow through into the wider financial system.”

Artificial Intelligence and Financial Markets

23:25 to 26:15

Discuss the implications of AI advancements on financial regulations and market risks.

“All right, speaking of risk or regulatory oversight, got to talk about artificial intelligence.”
Show all 21 chapters

Anthropic's AI Model and Cybersecurity

26:15 to 28:04

Learn about the capabilities and risks associated with Anthropic's AI model Mythos.

“We would love the perspective, super valuable with everything that's coming at us.”

Introduction to Mythos and Its Capabilities

28:04 to 29:12

Learn about the AI model Mythos and its potential to exploit cybersecurity weaknesses.

“You and the team right that this new model, Mythos, orchestrated the digital equivalent of a bank robbery, getting past security protocols through the front doors of networks, breaking into digital vaults.”

Concerns Over AI in Cybersecurity

29:13 to 30:28

Explore the implications of Mythos for cybersecurity and government collaboration.

“Mythos can check out all our systems and look for all the problems, the bugs, how people can get in, right?”

The Risks of Autonomous AI Behavior

30:29 to 33:16

Discuss the risks associated with AI acting autonomously, including potential consequences.

“So does it represent it's more difficult for Anthropik and the U.S.”

Exploring Worst-Case Scenarios for AI Exploits

33:17 to 35:28

Understand the worst-case scenarios regarding AI exploits and their potential impact.

“We're going to let people play around with it and see what it can do.”

Preparing for Cybersecurity Challenges Ahead

35:29 to 37:11

Learn about the measures organizations need to take in anticipation of AI-driven threats.

“And his quote is, I really believe we will be safer and better and we will be much more secure with AI.”

Reactions to Netflix's Earnings Performance

40:15 to 42:05

Gain insights into market reactions and investment strategies related to Netflix's performance.

“You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast.”

Analysis of Netflix's Position in the Market

42:05 to 46:36

Explore the current performance and future potential of Netflix as a major holding in investment portfolios.

“So sometimes you just have to be willing to look through short term noise.”

The Impact of Sports and Content Quality

46:36 to 48:50

Discuss the significance of sports programming and the importance of content quality for Netflix's growth.

“This is after the company's revenue did beat estimates.”

Exploring AI's Role in Netflix's Future

48:50 to 51:41

Delve into how Netflix is leveraging AI to enhance its content and business model.

“YouTube, dominant global video program, roughly 2.74 billion monthly active users as of early 2026, leading US TV streaming with over 12 % of TV viewing time driven heavily by users over 50.”

Evaluating the MAG-7 and Amazon's Performance

51:41 to 55:51

Assess the performance of the MAG-7 stocks and Amazon's position within this group.

“The Ben Affleck company, Interpositive, that Netflix announced it was buying back in March.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

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2:17Carol Massar:Talk to us about the quarter, because on several metrics, you guys definitely beat. And yet we do see the stock down on that revenue miss based on analyst estimates. How do you explain the miss and what do you think investors might be missing here?

2:30Rick Wurster:Well, it was an exceptional quarter. We had record results, record earnings, record revenue growth. We had record new assets come into the firm in March, and it was a cross the board growth. Every one of our businesses grew double digits year over year. So it was a really strong quarter for the firm. It was also a quarter in which what we do, I think, really stood out for investors. We're a firm that stands behind every client, helps them get to where they want to be in their financial life and in a market with more volatility, being in 400 local communities, having 16 ,000 advisors on our platform, taking 8 million calls.

3:07Rick Wurster:All of those things makes a difference in the everyday lives of people that invest at Schwab. It was also a quarter when we made a tremendous amount of progress around innovation. We launched teen accounts, sending a strong signal to teenagers and parents in our country about the power of saving, investing and compounding. We made significant progress in AI. We announced earlier this morning that we are launching Spot Bitcoin and Ether, and we'll do so in the coming weeks. We built out some of our lending capabilities specifically for the clients of our advisors, which are being well received.

3:46Rick Wurster:And we closed the Forge acquisition so that we can offer private shares to our Schwab clients. So it was a tremendous quarter. Thrilled with where we are. The stock goes up and down some days, and we don't know why. So we'll see what happens. But we're thrilled with how we're delivering for clients, thrilled with how we're performing as a business. Hey, Rick, on that record engagement, a 39 percent increase in daily average traders in March compared with a year earlier. What are you seeing from retail investors in April as markets do recoup these losses? Are you seeing the same level of activity in real time right now?

4:21Rick Wurster:We are, actually. So trading levels have stayed roughly similar as we come into April and our client behaviors. I've spent a lot of time with our clients over the past months. And what I've heard from them, all different cohorts of clients are more trading oriented. Clients are very active, but they're not taking the same bold bets that they might have been taking, say, a year ago. They're taking smaller positions. They're holding those positions for a shorter period of time because they don't have a strong view on the on the direction of the market and and some of the factors driving it. So they're taking smaller positions.

4:56Rick Wurster:Our longer term oriented investors are staying the course. They've got a plan. We've helped work with them to build that financial plan and they're sticking to it. And they've had really good resolve in terms of navigating the down moves here and sticking with stocks and benefiting from that over the long term. So I think clients are both engaged and acting very wisely.

5:18Carol Massar:So one of the things I want to ask you, and you mentioned the teen accounts, and I know you've we've had some other reporting out where you made some comments about younger investors. They'll come in and buy the dip. I mean, talk to us about those younger investors, whether it's the teen accounts, whether it's just younger in general, what kind of activity you're seeing on the platform? Is that where a lot of the growth or where a lot of the growth in activity is?

5:42Rick Wurster:Well, we're crushing it with the younger investor for a whole variety of reasons. You know, our teen account launch was about going into the homes of Americans, teenagers and parents and being able to share a message about how to get started in your financial life. You know, you and I and us, we've been invested in markets. We've seen the power of what markets can do to your wealth over time. Not every American has participated in markets. And the ability to get to investors earlier and give them a positive message about owning stocks, owning bonds, being a participant in markets, I think is incredibly powerful.

6:21Rick Wurster:And it's really needed at this time because they're inundated on social media and other platforms with messages about, you know, come gamble on who's going to be what bad bunny is going to play first. And that's really been the message that teenagers have been getting. And we're thrilled to get out ahead of that and offer a message about saving, investing and compounding timeless messages that will serve them well for the rest of their life. And we couldn't be more proud to work with a lot of young investors who are thriving on our platform. Well, that's a good segue to get into prediction markets because you use the word bet there and bet on pop culture.

6:56On today's earnings call, you said Schwab is taking a hard look at prediction markets, would stay away from allowing clients to place bets on sports or pop culture, given the firm's focus on building that long-term wealth. What is the timeline for this? Is it fair to say you're going to launch them this year?

7:12Rick Wurster:Well, you know, we are closely following some of the developments from the CBOE and other participants that are using existing structures to come out with prediction markets, and they're treating them essentially as a binary option. And so if the CBOE were to come out with that, and I think they've publicly communicated they expect that sometime in the fall, that would be a very prudent way for us to be able to offer prediction capabilities to clients. They would be financially related around financial events and financial markets. They'd be in a structure that our clients understand. And that would probably be the prudent way for us to deliver it to clients.

7:48Rick Wurster:So we're closely following that and closely partnering with them. And we'll see where that goes. But Tim, you're exactly right. Our goal is to bring prediction markets to clients that are financially related, that where you on average are going to add to your wealth as opposed to gambling oriented things, which are going to detract from your wealth.

8:07Carol Massar:All right. So, Rick, wait. So then could it happen by the end of this year?

8:12Rick Wurster:Well, we'll see. There's too much up in the air for me to commit to a date. I've been around too long to not lock myself in there. But I am proud that we said we'd have spot crypto out in the first half of this year. And we certainly look like that will be the case. So when we put out a date, we stick to it. I'm not going to put one out yet on prediction markets, largely because as we look at our priorities and the innovation that's coming, it's not top of mind for investors. And so as we think about what we're really leaning into, it's all the things I've talked about. It's getting crypto to market.

8:44Rick Wurster:It's having private the opportunity to invest in private capabilities. It's having more lending capabilities. And it's meeting the full needs of our clients' wealth spectrum and being able to help them across their financial life. our clients have record amounts of wealth, and they need more help with that and more advice. And those are the things we're leaning into and building. Certainly, we'll offer prediction markets when it makes sense. And I know there's some clients that would appreciate that.

9:12Carol Massar:Hey, one of the things, though, Rick, we were curious about, our own Bloomberg Intelligence team has been doing some work on this, and they noted that around 88 percent of U.S.-based activity on prediction markets still sits squarely in sports markets. If you're not going to do prediction markets on sports or pop culture, some might say, why offer it at all? I mean, is there enough volume there or is that why you're taking your time to see if there truly is enough volume?

9:37Rick Wurster:Well, Carol, you hit the nail on the head. When I said, hey, there's not a lot of client interest in this, you can look at the volume in prediction markets. It's all sports gambling. And that's not something that's of interest to us. Fewer than 5 % of people that put money into a sports gambling app take out more money than they put in. Our business for 50 plus years has been trying to help enrich our clients' financial life. And with stocks and bonds and ownership, it's all about owning a piece of the growth of our country and the companies in it. And sports gambling is fundamentally different than that.

10:11Rick Wurster:And that's why, again, as we think about prediction markets, I think it's likely something we'll have at some point, but it's not top of the list in terms of what we want to roll out because there's just not a lot of volume out outside of betting on sports and pop culture, which we're not interested in. Hey, Rick, you announced Schwab Crypto. It's a spot cryptocurrency trading service. It'll begin rolling out to retail clients in the coming weeks, direct access to Bitcoin and Ethereum trading. Why did it take so long to do this? What were you waiting for? I actually think we're getting Bitcoin and Ether out very quickly.

10:44Rick Wurster:If you look at the other major financial institutions, I think we're at the front of the line. We're doing this in a really thoughtful way, which is we're building the books and record capabilities ourselves. We're building the ability to custody the assets. That sets us up for the long run, which is the ability, if markets go towards tokenization, we're building the capabilities to support that. So we're making the investments we need to operate in a world that's more digital, should it go that way. And we're thrilled with our progress and got to market relatively quickly, I think, after the regulation changes, which allowed banks to get into these markets.

11:21Well, Fidelity, Robin Hood, Morgan Stanley, Coinbase, they've been doing this for quite some time. Coinbase has a decade-long head start. You manage$11.9 trillion in client assets. What is your competitive edge in crypto? And would you want, like, a Schwab client who has a Coinbase account to move their crypto assets to Schwab?

11:40Rick Wurster:Well, Tim, if they've got a 10-year history, we've got a 40-year history ahead of them of building trust, of doing the right thing for clients, of being able to bring value, service, support, and advice together. And so what we offer that's differentiated is we're not just making a product available. We're making all of Schwab available, and crypto is now a part of that. And we have so many clients that I hear from all the time that say, I can't wait until you can offer this because I want to hold it on your platform. I trust you. You give me great advice. When I have a question, I call you, pick up the phone quickly.

12:15Rick Wurster:You can't get that on a lot of the other platforms. And in terms of your reference of them being out there earlier, the big difference with all those companies you listed is they don't have a bank. And as a bank, up until recently, we weren't able to have spot crypto for clients. And I think of the banks that have a bank, I think we're out there relatively quickly. So So that's the difference on timing. But I do think we have a very competitive offer, given all that we have to offer at Schwab. And we're doing it with great value as well.

12:42Carol Massar:I got to say, there was so much in the earnings call that really is playing into the narrative today, Rick. And we got to ask you about AI, because, you know, back in February, there were some concerns. We saw wealth managers selling off yours along with Raymond James and LPL. And this came after Altruist came out with a tool that was going to help financial advisors personalize strategies for their clients. So you came on Bloomberg and you said you were disappointed and surprised by that sell-off and you thought AI has the potential to make financial advisors more efficient than irrelevant. Today, you said you're planning to launch an AI-driven investment portfolio insights come May.

13:21Carol Massar:What exactly will this be? And I've got to say, having been Tim and I at Schwab Impact, we heard it from the RIA community. Like this is the kind of thing that they want and they wanted it from you.

13:33Rick Wurster:Absolutely. Well, AI is a huge accelerant to our strategy. It's going to help us grow faster and it's going to help us drive scale and efficiency. On growth, we'll use LLMs. We'll treat them as a new distribution channel, which will allow us to reach a new set of clients. Much like we've worked with Google to open ourselves up to new clients. We'll work with the LLMs. We'll also be able to deepen relationships with clients we can't serve, which ties directly into your question there. There's a group of clients that we don't engage in an individual personalized relationship with. And AI is going to allow us to reach them in a scalable way and provide insights, tailored views and what's happening to their portfolio and their asset allocation.

14:14Rick Wurster:That's going to add value to their financial life. And that's going to help us grow. And then on the scale and efficiency front, every single call that comes in to a sales person or a service person or when you walk into one of our branches, all of that is now being supported by AI. It's making our people more productive, more able to help the individual meet their financial dreams and serve more of our clients. So we're thrilled with AI. I think it's going to be an accelerant to our business and drive both growth and scale and efficiency. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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17:16Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube.

17:23Carol Massar:We've got a really terrific guest to get you going in this hour. Yeah, we're talking about the European Securities and Markets Authority. It's the regulatory watchdog for financial markets and investor production. ESMA, it's less centralized than the SEC. It's not exactly the European version of the SEC. It relies more heavily on national regulators. Bloomberg reported out late last year, it's been strengthening its powers to become a more direct, unified supervisor. We are so delighted to have with us Verena Ross. She is chair of the European Securities and Market Authorities. Verena, so nice to have you here with us.

17:56Carol Massar:Thank you very much. A lot coming at us. I guess I have to ask you macro coming off of, again, comments from President Trump. This is our world at this point, certainly here in the US. What is the view from your vantage point when it comes to what comes out of the United States, specifically this administration on geopolitics, actions in general that can go, that can change from day to day, week to week? Thank you very much for having me. Now, obviously, we are, as a market supervisor, we are very closely monitoring what's going on in the market. We've seen enhanced volatility over the last few weeks, given all the geopolitical events, And that has clearly created also quite a lot of uncertainty, both in the short term, because it's very reactive to whatever the latest news is, but also in the medium and long term, what the implications for economies, for companies will be coming out of some of the macroeconomic consequences of the war and the tensions in the Middle East.

18:54But despite the volatility, everything has worked as it's supposed to.

18:58Carol Massar:So that is, I think, the positive news is that we've actually seen significant volumes go through, but in a very orderly way. Market infrastructure has been shown to be very resilient. Almost remarkably so, right? It has been really stable and orderly. At the same time, I think what we shouldn't underestimate is that it means that we see significant volatility and uncertainty. And I think that combined with potential longer term underlying risks, such as operational risk, cyber risk, or also underlying issues in private credit markets and so on. If there were events which were coming together, that could really be quite impactful.

19:42Carol Massar:And I think that's what we are monitoring for. And in particular, from our vantage point, it's obviously the impact that will have on the broader market, how it would actually flow through into the wider financial system. Chair Ross, I'm so glad you went to private credit. You know, earlier this year, I feel like, you know, that was one of our major narratives, certainly, along with AI and a few other things. Obviously, geopolitics has now become front and center again. Earlier this year, you weighed in on private credit, and you said you were trying to ease the cost and effort required for hedge funds and private credit firms to comply with new rules, which will require them to hand over more data to authorities.

20:21Carol Massar:What kind of update can you share on that? How is that going? And how important do you think that is to having a productive but still profitable market for investors? No, that is a very live debate, particularly in the European Union, because a lot of our companies require funding what they find difficult to get sometimes from the banks. So they're looking at wider funding sources and clearly private equity, private credit, some of the venture capital are important funding sources which are still very small in the European Union at the moment compared to the US markets. So we believe that variety of funding sources is important.

Read the full transcript

21:02Carol Massar:At the same time we need to be conscious of the potential risks that are there. We need to make sure that We have the right data, the right transparency about what's going on in the markets when it comes, for example, to valuation or liquidity mismatches between some of these longer term assets. But the promise to investors that you can redeem on a daily basis, that creates real questions about how that would work in practice when there's trouble. At the same time, we are also looking at the issues of how to make sure that we understand well the interconnectivity. So who is actually investing in these type of funds?

21:40Carol Massar:Do you think we're underestimating the interconnectivity of private credit with the establishment in terms of the financial system? Do you think we're underweighting it, the significance and the potential for risk? I'm sure there are interconnectivities, whether that is into the banking sector, whether that is into the insurance sector. So that is something that is there. I think we are all struggling a bit to know exactly how impactful that will be, because it will also very much depend on the scenario of what is playing out, how that interconnectivity would work and where the potential spread of risks would fall.

22:18You know, we're talking a lot. We're talking all about risks and we're going to talk about AI in just a minute. But if we think about all the things that we've just talked about private credit, we've talked about geopolitical risk, the war. There's this tension no matter where you are in the world between investors and regulators. And there's this this narrative that in Europe, the regulatory environment is more challenging for investors and more challenging for companies than it is here in the United States. Is it an easier environment now to regulate in because there are so many risks out there right now, whether it is war, whether it's private credit, whether it is AI?

22:56Are people, are businesses more receptive to regulation?

23:00Carol Massar:I would say there's the ongoing debate about what is the right regulatory framework that on the one hand is sufficiently agile and responsive to market developments, which is a real challenge given how fast markets are moving and technology is moving. And on the other hand, making sure that the regulators and supervisors have the right information and the right tools to intervene where it is necessary. Generally, the push at the moment is to let's simplify, let's reduce burden, let's reduce regulatory burden, make sure that we have a regulatory framework that also enables innovation in a kind of well -framed context.

23:41Carol Massar:So, as ESMA, we are very focused on trying to make sure that we also look at how can we actually simplify and decomplexify some of the regulatory framework that we've built over a number of years, make sure we focus on the issues where the highest risks are, and we make sure that we lower some of the burden that we are putting either on companies who need to report or want to list, or on investors who want to engage in capital markets and who actually want quick and easy to understand information to make those decisions. All right, speaking of risk or regulatory oversight, got to talk about artificial intelligence.

24:19Carol Massar:Like this is our new world, right? Anthropic and its new AI model called, we've been debating, is it mythos or mythos? But if you know folks, let us know. But anyway - You got to ask the model. We do have to ask the model. Today, our Bloomberg team reporting out on how Anthropic is planning to release this new model. Powerful, and there are concerns about the power for hacking. So you wonder about that in terms of the financial community. But anyway, we are reporting that this model is going to be released to UK financial institutions in the coming weeks, or in the coming week. I'm just curious, what do you see as the implications of this kind of model?

24:57Carol Massar:They get more and more sophisticated, their abilities, on markets and market infrastructure. And I know we're all kind of finding our way through this. Yeah, it's very much a developing picture. But what I see clearly is that artificial intelligence is changing the world that we live in, including financial markets. So it is also about making sure that we understand properly the implications, that we try to create some broad guardrails on governance and on how we look at these models and what they can do and how they might impact our core objectives of investor protection, orderly markets and stable markets.

25:34Carol Massar:Is it safe to say just real quickly that we don't have a lot of information? We don't totally understand them? Do you guys feel like you understand this new model? So I certainly have not got any detailed information about that model. I think what I understand is that there is really that possibility to discover potential weaknesses in cyber defences and so on. That can be obviously an opportunity to help you patch up those cyber defences. But on the other hand, falling into the wrong hands or being misused, it could also create real vulnerabilities to the financial system. Yeah, it's a strange new world order.

26:14Carol Massar:Please come back. We would love the perspective, super valuable with everything that's coming at us. Marina Ross, she is European Securities and Market Authorities Chair of ESMA and joining us right here in our studio. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2 p.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say, Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130. Well, it is today's big take. It's one of the most read stories on the Bloomberg Terminal. It's all about how Anthropic came to realize that it had created an AI model that was too dangerous to be widely released.

26:58Carol Massar:Yeah, on that, Anthropic CEO Dario Amadei shared his concerns about autonomous AI models on AI concerns at the AI Impact Summit in New Delhi that happened earlier this year. in February.

27:10Rick Wurster:I'm concerned about the autonomous behavior of AI models, their potential for misuse by individuals and governments, and their potential for economic displacement. AI will greatly grow the economic pie, including in India and the global south, but that because it is happening so fast, it may lead to a time of disruption. And we need to work together between companies and the government to better manage that time of disruption and bring better prosperity smoothly to all.

27:40Carol Massar:Welcome to the New World AI Order. That was Anthropics CEO Dario Amadei in February in New Delhi. Margie Murphy is Bloomberg News cyber reporter. She's part of the team behind the Anthropics story. That is, again, today's big take. It takes us inside the company's race to assess the dangers of Mythos. The team had exclusive interviews with Anthropics security team conversations with AI and cybersecurity experts. Margie, welcome. You and the team right that this new model, Mythos, orchestrated the digital equivalent of a bank robbery, getting past security protocols through the front doors of networks, breaking into digital vaults.

28:15It gave it access to online treasures. AI had picked the locks, but now it could pull off an entire heist. How could it do this? Yeah. So to get a little bit technical, it was all about finding bugs. So one of Anthropik's top cybersecurity researchers, who's really renowned in the field, he discovered that not only could Mythos find bugs in the software that, you know, the systems that we all use and we're used to, web browsers, operating systems, Mythos could find, like, a chain of bugs, so four different flaws, and patch them, not patch them, but put them together and create an exploit. So basically, it was finding all these different elements in software where there were chinks in the armor, and then intelligently thinking about ways in which you could compile them and break in, which is something that's difficult for human hackers to do.

29:12So for Mythos to be doing that autonomously, it was pretty impressive.

29:16Carol Massar:All right, so great. Mythos can check out all our systems and look for all the problems, the bugs, how people can get in, right? It's all good. I'm being sarcastic. Yeah, it's a little terrifying. But I think it's important to note that cybersecurity research has been warning about this for some time. And so with all the announcement last week, it's been incredible to see like Washington, Wall Street really take notice. And a lot of the people who are probably quietly behind the scenes, keeping a lot of the things that we rely upon very safe, have finally kind of had their day where they're like, well, we did say that this might be coming.

29:55So I think it's scary. I don't think that satellites are going to fall out of the sky in the next 12 months or we need to run into a cave. But I think it's a really good way for us all to realize how fragile our systems are with a new technology like AI. Well, just in the last few hours, you and the team, along with Jake Blayberg, reporting that the U.S. government is preparing to make a version of Anthropic's powerful new AI tool available to major federal agencies amid concerns that the tool could sharply increase cybersecurity risk. What's notable about this is Anthropic has been embroiled in this conflict with the Pentagon over the last few weeks.

30:34So does it represent it's more difficult for Anthropik and the U.S. government to work together because of the challenges that it's facing with the Pentagon? Because I can't read this in sort of a vacuum, Margie. Right. Absolutely. And it was we were asking Anthropik these questions themselves. And as you can understand, because of the legal issues, they're pretty tight lipped about it. I think that it would be such an obvious own goal for any government to restrict its own people from using a tool like this if the private industry is getting access to it. If, as Anthropic has said, probably within the next 12 months, similar models will be released, not theirs, but from competitors or perhaps malicious attackers using it and not releasing them, but making use of a similar technology.

31:24So it's hard to believe that in the future, federal agencies wouldn't get some kind of access to it because it's just so important for them to know what is out there and be able to point this kind of technology at the systems that, you know, all U.S. citizens rely on.

31:43Carol Massar:You know, I don't want to be alarmist, but I want to be smart. And you guys are super smart and kind of continuing to report this out as we find our way in. And, you know, no joke, new world AI order. But you report, you guys say that Anthropic warns that Mythos' ability to act with greater autonomy comes with risk. And you kind of just want to know, you know, concerning behavior, including not following human direction, and even in rare cases covering its tracks when violating human instructions. I mean, come on. That is terrifying. So, I don't know. If Anthropic is doing it, can we assume that others are doing this as well or are having the same inroads and making the same technological advances, if you will, in AI?

32:31Yeah, I think the answer to your question is yes. And I think a lot of the people that I spoke with, you know, I spoke with Google, they have a model called Big Sleep, which finds bugs. And they posed to me, well, why didn't Anthropic put guardrails in place? Because actually, these kind of technologies exist. And I don't think it's a stretch to think that a lot of these companies that are building these incredibly advanced models found similar things. but what they probably did was fix them, right? And then didn't go to the world and tell them about them. Whereas what Anthropik's done is kind of a, you know, a real masterstroke in marketing where they've said, okay, we're going to be honest about this quite scary, unruly, I guess, quirk of our AI.

33:21We're going to let people play around with it and see what it can do. And we'll also signal to the world, you know, how powerful a tool we have. and I think they have been obviously responsible in limiting who is getting access to it but I think it's it's totally plausible that the models that that are happening and being tested in labs in the U.S. and around the world have similar capabilities. Yeah and that's such a good point and we have to always remember what what they're you know the the common refrain about this technology right now is like the version of it that you're using now is the worst version you'll ever use and it just gets better and better so quickly.

33:59So it raises the question about, you know, what it could actually do if it falls into the wrong hands, Margie, and what, even in a couple of years, the capabilities of this technology will be. So just lay out these worst-case scenarios for us. Sure. So they found that they could exploit this actually very secure software and the worst-case scenario there, which, sorry, just to say, which underpins a lot of the systems we use. And you could potentially use that exploit to get into certain servers and crash a corporate network, for example. Like they were able to kind of test out that method and found that that could be the case.

34:40You may see things like extreme data exfiltration in companies. I mean, the types of hacks that could happen from this are limitless. There isn't a specific type of hack. It's basically just if you find a flaw in a certain piece of software that gives you a leg into a company or a device or a network. And you could either use that to kind of shut things down. You could use it for espionage, like sit in there and watch what's going on, watch inboxes of government officials, perhaps. Or you could use it to steal large amounts of data and then hold a company to ransom. So the possibilities are really like whatever you could imagine a hacker might creatively think of to do.

35:28Carol Massar:You know, there's a soundbite in this story, a former director of cybersecurity at the NSA, the National Security Agency, Rob Joyce. And his quote is, I really believe we will be safer and better and we will be much more secure with AI. But I think there's this dark period between now and sometime in the future where the advantage is very much offensive AI, where the people who haven't done the basics will get hacked. Yeah, that dark period. How dark could it be? And when we talk about people getting hacked, is it likely to be the financial community? Is it likely to be the government? Like, I don't know.

36:04Carol Massar:How are we thinking about what that dark period looks like? Again, I don't want to be alarmist because with any innovation, there's good and bad. But it's safe to say that we're in a new territory here. We are. And I think for the next 12 months, from what I'm told, people are expecting, you know, with access to things like Mythos, you're going to see a lot of people throwing money at pen testers and getting their cybersecurity teams to make sure that any flaws, any vulnerabilities that a model like this could pick up on are patched. And that's going to be painful. It's going to be expensive. And it's going to be time consuming.

36:41and folks aren't going to get all of them. And so I think we've got this, defense is always kind of on the back leg here and is trying to catch up with offense. And so I think for the next 12 months, you're just going to see people trying really hard to make sure that they're watertight so that if someone gets their hands on a model like this and is able en masse to scam for flaws and come after you, that you're as secure as possible. But I think as Rob Joyce says, For a lot of people, the expense of doing that will be really challenging. The other thing to point out is that it would be really hard to know the results of this for some time.

37:21Like, as I mentioned, there's the possibility for espionage. If someone gets in, they're not going to make any noise about getting in. So we may not see the impact of this for some time. You scared yet, Carol?

37:32Carol Massar:Okay. I already have trouble sleeping at night. Okay. Now I'm really in trouble. Thanks, Margie. Margie Murphy, Bloomberg News cyber reporter. You have a good and safe day. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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40:04Carol Massar:See how your business can get stronger and go farther with Chase for Business. Learn more at chase.com slash business. Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. Member FDIC. Copyright 2026. JPMorgan Chase and Company. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. I want to bring in Eric Clark. He's AccuVest Global Advisors, CIO.

40:43He's also the portfolio manager of the Logo ETF, which has Netflix as its second biggest holding. He joins us from inside for some reason. even though he's in beautiful San Diego, California. Eric, thanks for going into the office today to actually talk to us. Do appreciate that. We want to just get your quick reaction on Netflix down 9 % right now. Carol mentioned some of the headlines. The light guide certainly has investors a little concerned. Reed Hastings stepping away. A big deal, but maybe not as concerning to investors. What's your quick reaction? Well, Carol said it earlier. The stock's up 40%.

41:22I mean, you know, it went down 40 % from the highs in September and then it went up 40 % or 42 % since the lows at 75 bucks. So, you know, short term, any stock that runs 40 % into an earnings print better be an absolutely perfect print. And, but we don't care that, you know, short term noise in a quarter has never bothered us. It's as long as the dominant theme of any company is still intact. you ride through some of the noise quarter to quarter and you take advantage of that. And we certainly the stock was down 40 percent and we added to it a number of times to beef the position up pretty meaningfully because we do believe in this long term.

42:04And we've been getting paid to do that. So sometimes you just have to be willing to look through short term noise. And we did come hot into the print.

42:12Carol Massar:Yeah. Listen, I think based on was at the end of last year, this looks like it's the number two holding in your ETF, the logo ETF, roughly 5.8%, but you can correct me. You're going to add to that position or is this kind of near the top of how much you want in the portfolio? Well, by flexibility, we can go higher. I don't know that on a small print, on a small pullback like this, I don't know that there's a reason to add to it. I think you know, the goal is that there's been a lot of names that have come down. There's been a lot of turbulence under the surface. So we have a pretty full position in Netflix.

42:52Sometimes we trade around it. So, you know, if I got the opportunity to do that, I could certainly do that. But, you know, our goal is to find what are the next trillion dollar brands? Who else joins the trillion dollar club? Walmart joined not long ago. And, you know, Netflix only has to do about 13 % revenue ongoing and generate good free cash flow. We even cap the margin assumption at 35%. We cap the content spend at 20 billion, driving some more share buybacks. And you get to a trillion in market cap in 2032. So big picture, there's a lot more upside to go. You just have to go through different noisy quarters in a market that can be volatile.

43:36That's a more than doubling of the market cap in the next six years. You think that happens? I do. I do. Without, without Warner brothers discovery. I don't know. I completely agree. I think it would have been great to have that big content library. But you know, again, at what cost that they've, they've just saddled paramount with a pretty significant debt load. So they can do lots of other things on the content spend. They're going to clearly do more on sports. You know, the, the gaming is probably more of a free call option. I think going forward, It's a little hard to know, excuse me, how that's going to go.

44:12But if they just do what they've continued to do, ratchet up margins a bit, use AI to enhance the business, draw viewership in, you know, Netflix is still the benefit of it's the place we go first for content search. And then we go out from there. Well, there's nothing new on Netflix. OK, now I'll go to HBO. OK, now I'll go to Amazon or Apple. So, you know, and at 27 bucks a month, it's still an incredible value to the average consumer for all the entertainment that you get. And obviously, I do agree. We have a 10 we have an eight billion dollar revenue estimate from the ad tier in 2032. And I think your prior guest was talking about somebody having 10 billion.

44:58And so I think there's just a lot of things that you can, a lot of levers to pull for Netflix on the free cash flow, on the margin, on the AI side, which is still a little bit of an unknown. So I think dips are to be bought here. Yeah, go ahead. No, go ahead. Well, Reed Hastings, he has Powder Mountain in Utah. He's off skiing and creating this. David Weston got to go to Powder Mountain last year and talk to Reed Hastings. I would like to do some skiing at Powder Mountain.

45:24Carol Massar:I bet you would. An issue at all for this company that Reed Hastings, and look, he hasn't been CEO or co-CEO for a time at this point. Not an issue to you that he's exiting the board when his term is over? Not an issue at all. And he still has$2 billion worth of stock. So he's pretty vested in keeping up with Netflix and being comfortable enough to walk away while still having, you know, last I checked, 21 million shares. He's committed to Netflix success, similar to Balmer with Microsoft success. And look how it's worked out for Steve Balmer with all the things that he's done with Microsoft stock.

46:02I should note, I do believe Reed Hastings is a board member of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. So full disclosure there.

46:13Carol Massar:Yeah, no, we like to do that. Having said that, all right, so let's talk about the folks that are behind the helm. And let's just remind everybody, first of all, we're talking to Eric Clark, AcuVest Global Advisor, CIO. He's also a portfolio manager of the Logo ETF. Netflix is the second largest position in that ETF. Right now, we're looking at Netflix shares continuing to trade near their lows in the aftermarket, down about 9%. This is after the company's revenue did beat estimates. We did have that in the first quarter, but revenue did go up 16 % in the first three months of the year to$12.3 billion.

46:49Carol Massar:That was a slight beat. Earnings per share,$1.23 compared with estimates of$0.76. In the current quarter, though, the company forecasting earnings per share of$0.78 a share. That's less than the$0.84 predicted by Wall Street analysts. So that is the backdrop for those earnings. We're headed off to the analyst and investor call in a little while. Eric, what do you want to listen out for? What would you want to be asking on that call? You are an investor in the name. What would you be asking of the co-CEOs and their C-suite team? Well, I think sports in there, I mean, they're obviously not going to give you a ton of clarity or granularity on sports because they don't want to tip their hand.

47:32But it's clear that sports has been a very big win for them. So I expect them to talk more about double downing on those kinds of differentiated opportunities. And just trying to be as mindful about their spend and the quality of the spend is really what I would ask. Because let's face it, for a while there, they were in fill the library up mode and people kind of critiqued some of the quality content that they created. Now they have the ability, they have a large library. Now they have the ability to really focus on quality content, which certainly drives a lot more viewership and engagement.

48:12So, again, at$27 a month, there are very few other services that give people more delight and more entertainment. And the business is so predictable and consistent. In the last couple of months, every day the market was down with some of the Iran headlines. Netflix and Spotify were usually up on the day because of the stability of the business model. So it isn't just the growth that we are making it such a big waiting. It's the stability of the model that is important too. You're just going to have some of this volatility on the earnings.

48:46Carol Massar:Yeah. But what's interesting is we're in an environment, when I think about the model, YouTube, dominant global video program, roughly 2.74 billion monthly active users as of early 2026, leading US TV streaming with over 12 % of TV viewing time driven heavily by users over 50. Daily viewership includes 70 billion shorts views, top creators, you know, we can get into that. But this is from Nielsen. But people are watching YouTube and I realize it's an older or skewed older, but I just wonder, you know, do the streaming models, do they have it right? And to be fair, they have a lot of people watching.

49:25Carol Massar:I watch them. But I just wonder, like, what is the model of how people, there's so much coming at individuals. They have a lot of choices out there, or they could just, you know, turn off their laptop, turn off their TV or whatever, and put down their phone. Well, I think, you know, we have this short-termism in a variety of our lives, this dopamine hit. And, you know, YouTube does provide that short term, you know, I just want a four minute clip. And so I, it wouldn't surprise me if, if YouTube started or, uh, Netflix started to, to kind of experiment with some of those, you know, short type of content as well.

50:08Yeah.

50:09Carol Massar:Isn't that funny? That's so wild. But you just think about, right. Because you, you click on those short videos. I mean, listen, I have someone at home that's really into it and yeah he's above 50 but i mean like the amount of stuff and velocity you will go through you know like instagram youtube tiktok snap those short forms are everywhere yeah right but what do you say but he's not on that but i just think about those short things and you can have ads if you want like it's like youtube copied youtube now has youtube shorts and they copied the you know i think snap it's fair to say kind of pioneered this and then instagram copied it it's all over Facebook now.

50:44LinkedIn has this.

50:45Carol Massar:All I know. Yeah. It's everywhere. I know. I know. I just think about, you know, how much YouTube is on in our household. It's pretty remarkable. Um, you know, so, all right. Um, yeah, you're not worried, but you're not necessarily buying more here. No, if we were at two or 3 % weight and I would absolutely be buying, but we have a full, we have a full weight now. And if it pulled back a little bit further again, we love to trade around names if we can get the opportunity. I'd certainly consider that as an opportunity, but I don't see us changing the core weight at 5 % or so anytime soon, particularly with the assumptions that we feel pretty good about by 2032 with kind of joining the trillion dollar club, because that is a big part of what we're doing at Logo, trying to find the names who are the next firms to join the trillion dollar club.

51:35And there's a few on our list that look pretty attractive. I want to go back to the AI question. We touched on this with Geetha a little bit as well. The Ben Affleck company, Interpositive, that Netflix announced it was buying back in March. Is Netflix doing the right thing with AI? I think they are. I mean, you know, AI is still, I think, an unknown to most of the world. So you never, I think there's a lot of experimentation that has to occur. And if you are one of the lucky kind of companies that have a bunch of free cash that you can experiment with different things to try to see what resonates and then do a lot more of it once you have some good data, that that's just kind of distances you your firm from all the peers so i do think ai is going to continue to be a part of this uh to be a part of this industry and and you know netflix is in the the catbird seat to be able to use their their balance sheet to be able to to to figure out how to do it and you know we do expect good share buyback activity with a they can they can do all the content they need with 20 billion or less a year which means that the more they grow subs the more they can buy back shares and reduce the float.

52:50And that helps earnings per share growth. And there's just a lot to like about the core business and a few things that could be big optionality around the core.

53:00Carol Massar:Hey, we're staying on Netflix. We're right now talking with Eric Clark of AcuVest Global Advisors. We're looking at Netflix shares. They are still down in the aftermarket, a decline of about 8.4%. So hovering near its lows in the aftermarket are right through on the Bloomberg by our own Lucas Shaw. Netflix giving a forecast for the second quarter that fell short of analysts' expectations, so sending the shares down in extended trading and also, of course, announcing that chairman and co-founder Reed Hastings is stepping down from the board after 29 years to pursue philanthropy and personal interests.

53:36Carol Massar:Eric, one thing I want to ask you, because you've got a lot of names in your logo ETF that are on our radar, especially when it comes to MAG7. Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Meta. We're talking about Netflix. They're all in your portfolio. It's really important this earnings season around, and not just for these names, but everything in terms of what it tells us about the markets and the sentiment and the outlook. When it comes to the MAG-7, is there a consensus in terms of your thinking around them? Are they still the way to go? Well, I think they are a good core. And then around the core, we look for other you know, kind of more innovators like an Apple oven and things like that.

54:17But I mean, Amazon is the biggest holding for a reason. It is still by far the cheapest of the mag seven and the most underpriced relative to the opportunities. And that shareholder letter the other day that really got the stock moving really was a bit of an eye opener, I think for the, for the market when, when they finally laid out a lot of the growth opportunities and the semiconductor business, if it were a standalone business. I've argued for a long time, if you would have done the sum of the parts, if they were to break up Amazon into the growth part and then the more stable retail part, man, a lot, hundreds of billions of value would be unlocked by doing that.

54:57Is that the old sort of like thinking of splitting off AWS versus everything else? What are you thinking? Yeah, absolutely. If you just take a look at the more traditional technology part of the business. We've been talking about this for a decade at this point. They'll never do it, obviously. But this shareholder letter really did kind of give you an indication of, you know, here are the parts. Here are the growth vectors of the parts. Here's the opportunities that we see. And clearly, AWS, you know, with AI and with Tranium, I mean, it's just way too cheap, you know. So I'll tell you, if we were talking about Amazon on their earnings and the stock was down, I would be telling you that we would be buying more because that's the one name in the mag seven that I want to get a lot more big in on dips.

55:46I'm not going to chase it after this big run, but that's the one that we would be adding to on a dip.

55:51Carol Massar:All right. Well, we should remind everybody, uh, Amazon will be out with their earnings on Wednesday, April 29th. That's also a fed day, but we also get from, uh, alphabet will report Microsoft. That's a big day. That's like two weeks from yesterday. It's another fed day. I know. Here we go. Here we go. Eric, really appreciate it. Eric Clark, he's AcuVest Global Advisor, CIO, Logo ETF, Portfolio Manager, joining us once again from San Diego, as we've mentioned. Netflix, his second biggest holding in that Logo ETF. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

56:28Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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From the publisher

Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

Charles Schwab is likely to launch prediction markets linked to financial events as competitors including Robinhood Markets Inc. expand their presence in the space.Schwab is “taking a hard look” at prediction markets, Chief Executive Officer Rick Wurster said on a conference call Thursday, but would stay away from allowing customers to place wagers on sports or pop culture given the firm’s focus on building clients’ long-term wealth.

“Prediction markets that are not aligned to that are not something we want to pursue,” Wurster said on the call with analysts to discuss first-quarter results.

Retail investors can already access prediction markets via a number of platforms, including Robinhood, Kalshi, Polymarket and Interactive Brokers Group. The majority of event-based wagering centers around sports, which Wurster said Schwab won’t offer.

This episode features:

  • Schwab CEO Rick Wurster on earnings, prediction markets, financial sector health
  • Verena Ross, European Securities and Market Authorities Chair
  • Margi Murphy, Bloomberg News Cyber Reporter on Anthropic's race to assess the dangers of its new AI-model Mythos
  • Eric Clark, Accuvest Global Advisors CIO and LOGO ETF Portfolio Manager

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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