Shippers and Oil Traders Seek Details on Trump’s Convoy Plan

18:39Tim Stenovec:He's also the author of Trumponomics, Inside the America First Plan to Revive Our Economy and the Trump Economic Miracle. He's back here. Hi, guys. He just ran across town. Is Neil Kashkari right? Is it too soon to know about the economic effects or the inflationary effects of this war? Yeah, I think it is too early to tell. I mean, what we know from the first, what, three or four days is that the worst case scenarios have not turned out, right? I mean, people were predicting maybe oil at$100 a barrel and a crash in the economy and the stock market. We haven't seen that. Last time I checked, oil was at about$75,$76 a barrel.

19:17Tim Stenovec:That's a significant increase from where we were, but we have not seen the worst case scenario, and that's good news. But yeah, look, I think Neil is right that we don't quite know what to expect here. And I agree with his assessment. Is this a three or four week incursion or is it, you know, a three year incursion? Yeah. So WTI crude of 7470 right now. Brent is at 8130 right now. Still, though, those are up more than 30 percent this year. And we're not even three months into the year. Well, look, I mean, let's be clear. I mean, a rising oil price is a bad thing for the economy. It does put pressure on inflation.

19:59Tim Stenovec:It does make our economy weaker because, let's face it, energy is the master resource. Everything that we have and everything we produce depends on energy. So we'll see. I mean, look, thank goodness we have a president in the White House right now who's drill baby drill. And one thing I think investors have to understand, unlike I'm a little older than you all are. I mean, I grew up in the 70s when literally OPEC had a blade at our neck and they could thrust us into a recession and they could pull us out of recession. And that's not the case today. We're the biggest oil and gas producer in the world.

20:35Tim Stenovec:And that has, to some extent, not fully, but to some extent, has cushioned us from the effects of Middle East oil.

20:42Carol Massar:Steve, I remember the odd even license plate. I was super little. I remember that too. So you are old enough to remember that. I was super little, but I do remember having two calls.

20:51Tim Stenovec:I think you read about it in history.

20:52Carol Massar:No, but two cars in the driveway, one with an odd and needle. Well, I remember my parents and I, and I grew up in Chicago,

20:59Tim Stenovec:we would pack up in our station wagon back then, and we'd get in line, and we'd be 14th in line to get gas in the morning. So I remember those days.

21:09Carol Massar:But having said that, I guess what I'm wondering, and I want to go back to what Neil Kashkari told our Michael McKee, that it's just too early to make the call. You have an incredible advantage having worked inside with the president. And on that first day on Monday, we had a soundbite of the defense secretary saying this is going to be quick and fast and so on and so forth. And you had the president saying, we're going to take as long as it takes to do this. Do you think they had a clear strategy of how much this would take, how long it would take, how difficult this would be to do?

21:44Tim Stenovec:I really wish I could answer that question. I don't know. I mean, I did visit the president a few weeks ago, and it was clear that he had Iran on his mind back then about what to do about that. Why? What did he say to you? No, he just said, you know, I'm trying to think about what the next step in Iran is. But, you know, I mean, it's interesting because Trump has not been an interventionist. You know, he ran against, you know, military adventurism. And yet I really believe part of this, you know, was a humanitarian effort. I think he really was bothered by the tens of thousands of people that were dying under this murderous regime.

22:21Tim Stenovec:So I think there was a big part of this. I really do. That was humanitarian.

22:25Carol Massar:But it's interesting. I mean, we can get into a big geopolitical about when presidents and governments, particularly the United States, decide to intervene and not intervene. Right. And it doesn't always feel like there's a rhyme or reason or a playbook on all of this because it does. You know, if you think about national security, Iran's been difficult for decades. And so you wonder about why this happened now. Why do you think this happened now?

22:47Tim Stenovec:I think it was because of the murdering that was going on of the citizens in the street. But you're right. I mean, look, there has been as long as you and I have been in our work careers and in our early years of our life, there's been complete turmoil in the Middle East. Yeah. I mean, that's been nonstop. And so I think Trump would like to go down in history as the guy who brought peace and prosperity to that region. Whether he can pull that off is another matter. But I think that's one of the things that's really guiding him.

23:16Carol Massar:What happened to affordability for Americans guiding him as we count down to the midterms, which feels like a long time away, but we already had some primaries, right? Just this week, just yesterday. So I'm just curious, how does this fit in? And if you were advising the president at this point, would you be like, Mr. President, you've got to be thinking about what's impacting Americans?

23:35Tim Stenovec:Well, look, if the price of oil continues to go up, like we're just talking about, that makes the affordability problem harder to solve, obviously, because of oil's importance in the whole basket of goods. I do think, look, fundamentally, I really believe we have a strong economy. We got some numbers out today from the ADP showing private sector job growth up. Government continues to shrink in terms of size. We do have the tax cut that's kicking in for people, which is a stimulus. So I remain bullish, but worse are not good for stock markets, let's face it.

24:08Carol Massar:Well, it's funny that you went there, forgive me, but it's like, we do also have a president that we know that watches the stock market. Yes. So can we, is that, you know, is there a presidential put here in terms of how long this conflict goes on that we can assume the president's going to...

24:22Tim Stenovec:I don't think Trump wants a long, protracted involvement in the Middle East. I don't think he, I think he wants to get in these surgical strikes, decapitate their military and get out. Well, he's decapitated leadership, did the same thing in Venezuela in a different way. And your comment about the humanitarian element was interesting to me because that doesn't seem to gel with MAGA in America first. The idea, and it's kind of like an old school US view, which is a term I've used with you in the past. You don't agree with the president on tariffs. You're more of an old school Republican. Is the president, in your view, splintering the Republican Party?

25:01Tim Stenovec:Because there are those folks who say, we have no business getting involved in other countries' wars. We have no business getting involved in other countries' politics. We are about America first, not America alone. Look, these are all things that I've been pondering. A lot of us have. Look, it's Donald Trump's party right now. There's no question about it. He has very, very high approval ratings with Republican voters, not so much with Democratic voters. And so my sense is that clearly Republican voters are rallying around Trump and the flag right now. And but on the other hand, none of us I mean, you know, we saw what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan and nobody wants to see that happen again, least of all the president of the United States.

25:47Tim Stenovec:So I don't I don't have answers to these questions because it all happened so quickly. So so let's talk a little bit about between now and the midterms. And I know the economy is what you focus on and economics is what you focus on. If this makes the president's path and Republicans' path in the midterms more challenging, what are some priorities you believe the president needs to do? Communicate to Americans for affordability so then Republicans are successful in the midterms. Well, there's no doubt. Affordability and bringing inflation down is the top domestic priority for the country. And the people have spoken out about that.

26:22Tim Stenovec:with respect to what's going on in the Middle East right now, if by the time we come around to the midterms, which are still six, seven, eight months away, and he has a happy ending here, then that'll certainly help Republicans. But look, I'm going to be honest with you, it's very difficult for Republicans to hold the House. It just is. I mean, usually the average amount of seats that an out-of-party party picks up is about 25. And Republicans have a two - or three-seat majority. So you do the math there. It's very difficult. The Senate, I think, is even in play. I know a lot of Republicans think they've got a firm grip on it, but I'm not so sure.

27:02Tim Stenovec:The most important thing Trump can do to ensure that he has a Republican Congress is to grow the economy and to deal with the affordability crisis. You're quite right. My wife, who's a Republican. She gets mad every time she goes to the grocery store. You have no idea what ground beef costs. And, you know, I have no idea what, you know, insurance costs and those kinds of things. So she's not alone. That's right. She is not.

27:25Carol Massar:So go back to what was a focus for us last week was the State of the Union. And the president came out and said, we kind of solved the affordability issues. Had we?

27:35Tim Stenovec:I believe we're on the way. I think if you look at the latest inflation reports, they show it coming down. You know, the Fed target, one of the things to think about is the Fed target has been 2%. I think the American people want zero, right? In other words, if I were advising Kevin Warsh when he comes in, don't shoot for two, shoot for zero. Because we've had so much. The reason people are angry is because the last five years, the price of things are up 25%. Maybe that's a communication issue because the people don't necessarily understand the difference between disinflation and deflation. And they think about it like gas prices.

28:12Tim Stenovec:And I I think that's really challenging. So let me explain what you're talking about, because this is important. President Trump says this all the time. Sometimes I say it all the time. Politicians say, well, we're going to put prices down. No, there's a difference between bringing prices down and bringing inflation down. In fact, we wouldn't want deflation as the worst of all things. So we want to stabilize prices and bring them down. And that's why I say, let's shoot for zero. And by the way, I think Kevin Warsh understands that. I believe he's going to be an inflation.

28:40Carol Massar:You know, people say about the affordability issue, at least we've had some guests here, Steve, and I'm curious for you to weigh in on this, is that it's, you know, when we talk about housing affordability and different things, we need to pay people more in terms of incomes not matching up with what we've seen in inflation. Why don't we incent more companies rather than, you know, giving them tax breaks and then they do big stock buybacks? Why don't we incent to pay workers more?

29:06Tim Stenovec:Okay, so first of all.

29:08Carol Massar:And spread some of the wealth around.

29:09Tim Stenovec:If you look, we just chugged the numbers. So over the last year, the average median income family in the United States has seen a$2 ,500 increase after inflation in their income. That's a pretty large increase,$2 ,500 in one year. What percentage increase is that? Census data.

29:27Carol Massar:No, but what percentage of an income is that?

29:29Tim Stenovec:So the average family makes about$75 ,000. So it's maybe a 3 % or 4 % gain. But the point is, it's not down. It's up. affordability is up for most people although i bet a lot of people would would object to my saying that i'm just talking but you asked me about the tax cut we the average family this year is going to get a fifteen hundred dollar to two thousand dollar reduction in their taxes so you add the increase in their before uh tax income in real terms and then you add the tax cut you're talking about a four thousand dollar gain so it wasn't it wasn't a tax cut for rich people it just wasn't But I will say that those people are also getting hit proportionally with the tariffs, too.

30:09Tim Stenovec:Well, that's a fair point. Yeah, so the average, you know, this is an important point, too, is that, yeah, the average family, by some estimates, paid about$1 ,200 more for tariffs. That's a fair point. At least in the data that you're citing. And that, by the way, is going to be a big issue as we resolve this issue of who gets the money. You know, there's$175 billion in tariff collection. There are a lot of lawyers being paid a lot. That's for sure. Hey, before we let you go, I just want to get your thoughts on AI. We were at an event yesterday, Bloomberg Invest, and it was an investment event.

30:40Tim Stenovec:But no question, the conversation was just dominated by AI. I was in a dinner with about a dozen CTOs who were painting this picture of a world where productivity is just completely shifting. I know that nobody knows the effect of AI on productivity, but how are you looking at it? I'm looking at this as the greatest boom in productivity in the history of the world. And so that will cause adjustments. But it's exciting. I mean, you're looking at a future in the next 15 years where we're going to be seeing every truck will be automated. We'll see people rising out of their wheelchairs and walking.

31:19Tim Stenovec:We'll be of sight to the blind. I mean, this is the most exciting thing. I'm on the board of a company called Lightspeed. We build houses with robots. So we'll be able to build houses at half the cost and half the time. Think about what that's, you know, you asked me about affordability. Think about what that's going to mean to the price of a new home. It's going to fall. So I'm mostly excited about this future.

31:40Carol Massar:But are you worried about the jobs? Sure.

31:42Tim Stenovec:But, you know, look, I mean, if you're concerned about jobs, that's what, you know, people said in, you know, 1920s when we invented the invention that lowered the most jobs. in history was the farm tractor. I mean, it used to be 30 out of 100 Americans were working in agriculture. So that kind of adjustment has happened before and people are going to have to be prepared for it. And look, people are afraid. They're afraid of the AI revolution. I kind of look at it as the half glass, half bowl. As long as the robots don't know how to do economics, that I'll be fine with it. That's a joke, folks.

32:16Tim Stenovec:No, I know, I know. No, that is - I will say Mike McKee sent me a note a few weeks ago about how it was one of the jobs that is most vulnerable to AI. Yeah. I'm sorry. I'm 66, so I don't have to worry about it too much.

32:34Carol Massar:You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube. I want to talk a little bit about some new products from Apple. that Tim is already thinking about buying.

32:53Tim Stenovec:You got to.

32:54Carol Massar:Rolling out the$599 MacBook Neo, biggest push for the company, yet into low-end laptops. So it's really looking to go after Windows PCs and Chromebooks for budget-minded shoppers. You're budget-minded. I know about a coffee thing that you bought that wasn't so budget.

33:09Tim Stenovec:Well, that's because I don't spend all my money on computers. I can buy expensive coffee things. I'm sorry. Did I say that out loud to everyone listening? That was a gift.

33:16Carol Massar:Is dad listening? He is. Oh, that's a gift.

33:18Tim Stenovec:Yeah, that was a gift.

33:19Carol Massar:Aw, okay.

33:20Tim Stenovec:Bloomberg News consumer tech reporter Samantha Kelly joins us here in the studio. $599 a price point for a Mac that I think is not familiar to anyone because that's so inexpensive. It kind of puts it on par with Chromebooks and with some lower end Windows PCs. What can it do?

33:37Carol Massar:Yeah. So this is still very much a Mac computer. It looks like a MacBook. It's a little bit slimmer. I'm sorry. The display is a little bit slimmer, but it's still light. It fits in your bag. It It does everything, almost everything that you would expect from a higher end MacBook Air. However, the computing, the processor isn't quite there. But anything you would need, you know, navigating the web, documents, some light editing, basically to your point, like a substitute alternative for a Chromebook or a lower end PC. Are people going to go for it for consumers? Like, have we been looking for this?

34:11Carol Massar:Yeah, I think absolutely. I think like students, schools, kids are using Chromebooks, businesses, I think casual users. I mean, a MacBook Air can, you know, starts at$1 ,100. This is$600. And you're getting like popping on the plane, watching movies. And the colors are fun. Well, will you be able to watch movies? Oh, yeah. Oh, OK. Yeah.

34:31Tim Stenovec:Absolutely. But it also kind of is in the iPads turf, which is interesting.

34:35Carol Massar:Yes. It's one of the reasons why Apple has delayed this for so long. And they actually announced a new iPad Air this week. that is also the same price,$600. But, you know, people, it's a different form factor. So, you know, you could be on the couch, you could have, you know, a keyboard connected, but not everybody wants that. You could have a laptop experience for, you know, half the price almost.

34:53Tim Stenovec:So why shouldn't someone get this? Like, why shouldn't I get this? And should I go for a$1 ,200 computer instead?

34:58Carol Massar:Yeah, I think it depends how you're going to use it. If you're like a heavy user, if you have, you know, heavy, if you're a gamer, if you have like projects, if you're a professional, like an artist or something like that, you're not going to want. But if you're just going to, you know, if you're taking notes in class or if you're going to bring a computer on the weekend, you want to check your work email, it basically does everything you really need. And what's really interesting is it now is powered by an iPhone chip, which is one of the reasons why they were able to keep it lower. The same chip from an iPhone 16 Pro, which is not that old, is now powering this laptop.

35:32Carol Massar:Just kind of goes to show the efficiency, how they're able to make such powerful chips now. And now they can put it in new products. Yeah, they can do it. And it comes in citrus, silver, indigo and blush color options. Which one will you which one will you maybe purchase?

35:45Tim Stenovec:I don't know, but I'm looking at Apple stock. It's down two tenths of one percent. And it's not, you know, launch. You can't really look at Apple stock on a launch day. We always do that when when there's a big launch day in September or something and a new iPhone is unveiled. One thing we do, though, is or one thing we don't do is really pay that much attention to this revenue line when we're looking at company earnings. So, I mean, people care about services. They care about iPhone. And does that, like, it's surprising to me that we're talking about a new Mac when, you know, investors care most about those much bigger categories.

36:18Carol Massar:Yeah. I mean, what's interesting, well, first of all, the Mac in general, the category was down over the holiday season. But I think this is also a bigger play to just get more people into the ecosystem. You know, you might have an iPhone. It goes after a whole different market. 100%. This is way cheaper than an iPhone. Yeah, you might end, then you might finally get this, and then you're like, you know what? I should probably have an Apple Watch at this point. It kind of like opens the door to more.

36:44Tim Stenovec:It's a gateway drug.

36:45Carol Massar:You know, guilty, because if you think about it, like we have a home that's got the laptops, that has the iPads. Like once you kind of lean into that Apple world and universe, you just kind of keep adding on. You just do, right? Like, I don't know, same thing?

36:58Tim Stenovec:Yeah, you still have the first Apple Watch, though. That's the difference between us.

37:01Carol Massar:It was a second. It was a second iteration, I've been wearing that look. I have yet to update. I've actually gone old school on watches all of a sudden. And I just, I don't know. But we'll think. But I do think about, there's got to be a point where Apple says, listen, we've got the Apple lovers, full disclosure. And we're pretty transparent about it. But at some point, you've got to figure out how do you grow your market, right? And who you can go after. Well, that's exactly it. And it's also, you might have an iPad. You might have an iPhone or something like that. But these MacBooks are expensive.

37:32Carol Massar:So maybe you have it, maybe a partner has it, but do you really want your like 14 year old kid to have a high end MacBook? No, but how about a yellow MacBook Neo? It's kind of that perfect little harmony in between. So if they go to college and then they need to do like spreadsheets and stupid stuff. You could do that on this. Can you? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it's, I mean, it's very much a functional laptop.

37:53Tim Stenovec:Does it solve, I'm going to pull a Mark Gurman here. Does it solve Apple's AI problem?

37:57Carol Massar:It's interesting you say that. No, it certainly doesn't. It says in some ways that some of the computing power behind it will be able to better handle AI in the future. I really do think it's going to attract more people. I think it's going to have some purchasing power. But no, there are lots of other AI problems that they're still working through for sure. What does it mean, as we said, this gives Apple the ability to go after a different part of the marketplace and then maybe get people into the Apple universe? having said that what else are we anticipating comes at a cheaper price point yeah well this week they announced this is just one of several different products that they announced this week so we also had the iphone 17e which is its budget line um also at a more affordable price as well um does less you know that you would want in like a pro or even a traditional basic line no it's sort of like and it competes more with um other budget phones out there like samsung there's like a series and and so it just it's kind of just lowering the or rather it's just making the playing feel it's giving something for everybody in many ways and so we've seen that in different categories but we haven't seen that with the macbook and this um iphone is just another iteration it looks just like the previous version really i'm going back to the new laptop because

39:13Tim Stenovec:it has a um headphone jack yeah which which new which iphones haven't had for years yeah it's

39:19Carol Massar:funny. They said that. Yeah. They said that this morning, you know, usually they have these flashy keynotes and this was kind of a very much a dial down. Uh, we were all standing. I don't think I've ever stood for an Apple keynote before we were in this like tiny little room. It was in New York. Yeah. Yeah. It was here. And they had, you know, um, demos. We were able to try out the new products and, you know, they, they showed the video and, you know, you're looking at, you know, everyone's like, Oh, the colors, the colors are very fun. And then they, they mentioned the headphone jack. And I was like, Oh, that's interesting.

39:46Carol Massar:Just as they're moving obviously toward, you know, wire, you know, AirPods, all the, it's different lineup there, but it isn't, you know, having lost still there. Four or five. My husband actually bought me a wide, like a cord.

39:59Tim Stenovec:You were wearing them yesterday. Yeah. And she has, she has this air, these AirPod cords. They hook, they make the AirPods into wired headphones.

40:10Carol Massar:So basically you put it around your neck, right? You can put them in. So it's all the convenience of AirPods. Do you want to know what's crazy is I was walking into the Bloomberg Invest event And then all of a sudden I look, I'm like, shoot, I lost one. And so luckily we just went back. It must have slipped out. I must not have had it in tight enough. But I'm like, oh, that's funny. I can't go home to my husband and say he lost again. Again. He's like, just get headphones. Like, just do it.

40:30Tim Stenovec:I do have AppleCare for AirPods, though. And I think that covers. But think about it when you lose them. I don't know.

40:35Carol Massar:If you're a budget shopper, though, you might not have AirPods. You would need a headphone jack.

40:39Tim Stenovec:Good point.

40:40Carol Massar:Yeah.

40:40Tim Stenovec:Very good point.

40:41Carol Massar:What's old is new again. All right. In technology sometimes. Check this one out. Great stuff. Samantha.

40:45Tim Stenovec:With an education discount, you can get this laptop for$499. You citrus kind of guy?

40:50Carol Massar:$100 off. Indigo, blush, silver.

40:53Tim Stenovec:The price is right. Come on. It doesn't matter.

40:55Carol Massar:Lead it to your blush size.

40:56Tim Stenovec:You can get a six-pack of these for the price of a couple of meters. Yeah, you can be bold with the color.

40:59Carol Massar:You can be bold. You can just citrus. It's okay, yeah. He's not going to do citrus. Summer leading into the summer.

41:05Tim Stenovec:Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

41:12Tim Stenovec:Support for the show comes from Public. Public is an investing platform that offers access to stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. And they've also integrated AI with tools that can assist investors in building customized portfolios. One of these tools is called Generated Assets. It allows you to turn your ideas into investable indexes. So let's say you're interested in something specific like biotech companies with high R &D spend, small cap stocks with improving operating margins, or the S &P 500 minus high debt companies. Chances are there isn't an ETF that fits your exact criteria. But on public, you just type in a prompt and their AI screens thousands of stocks and builds a one-of-a-kind index.

41:53Tim Stenovec:You can even backtest it against the S &P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Go to public.com slash market and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash market.

42:13Tim Stenovec:SEC registered advisor, crypto services by zero hash. Sample prompts are for illustrative purposes only, not investment advice. All investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosures at public.com slash disclosures. Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvind Krishna, and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business?

42:42Carol Massar:My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side.

42:48Tim Stenovec:For example?

42:50Carol Massar:If anybody has more than 10 % of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30 % more productive today with the goal of being 70 % more productive. Yeah. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say, you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology. It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.

43:32Tim Stenovec:To listen to the full conversation, visit ibm.com slash smarttalks.

44:06Carol Massar:Thank you.

44:37Carol Massar:We'll see you next time.

44:40Carol Massar:Copyright 2026, JPMorgan Chase and Company. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube. We had some economic news this morning that did impact the trade on this Wednesday. Let's get to it with Molly Smith. She's Bloomberg News economics editor. She, like we, are pouring over the beige book. Good to have you here in studio. I'm on page three. Good for you. All right. Thank you. Mr. Speed Reader. What a fast reader. Yeah, a little show off.

45:17Carol Massar:Total show off. What jumps out for you? Honestly, it sounds like more of the same. Yeah. I know that's not very newsy, but that's what I'm reading, at least so far. But Tim's faster than me, so maybe he's seen something different on page five by now.

45:31Tim Stenovec:Well, I go to page two and I go to what to prices because I'm interested in what these districts are reporting when it comes to inflation. Prices increased moderately in recent weeks with eight districts reporting moderate price growth and forcing slight or modest increases. Many districts reported that costs rose across several non-labor inputs, including insurance, utilities and energy, metals and other raw materials. An issue for inflation or is that to be expected?

45:54Carol Massar:I mean, I think that the worrisome sign about that is that this all happened before the war in Iran started over the weekend. So those are really like, you know, things that you might start to think about, particularly on the energy side, as far as like what might be a risk for the inflation outlook here domestically. Should this be a more prolonged conflict? If we really start to see a sustained energy shock in oil and gas markets? Too soon to say that just yet. And of course, if this starts to impact other parts of the supply chain and logistics, Um, we're just not seeing that yet. Um, but so far it seems like this is a fairly benign looking page book also on the employment side.

46:33Carol Massar:Stable, um, is what most districts seem to report. And that's what exactly what the fed wants to see. And that really jives with the characterization that Powell and others have been saying that the labor market appears to be stabilizing. Um, got that a little bit with ADP this morning and we'll probably, we'll try to see that with the jobs report on Friday as well, but there might be a little bit of noise with some other factors in that one. Yeah, I thought it was interesting, too. I mean, that they highlighted things about firms continuing to pass tariff-related cost increases through to their customers.

47:03Carol Massar:Others began to do so after having absorbed previous increases. And we thought we would get to a point in the stage where companies were like, got to move it along, got to move it along. And the other thing I think is interesting is in terms of labor, we saw wages rising at a modest or moderate pace in most districts, firms competing for talent in select areas, including the skilled trade. So, you know, it just, to me, Molly reminds what I feel like a lot of guests come say that we're not quite there on inflation and it feels like the scales are tipped that it could go higher. That's even backing out the war in Iran.

47:36Carol Massar:Totally. And I feel like what we've seen in the latest, uh, the last couple of producer price indexes. So this is the wholesale inflation level. They've been very firm. You're not seeing that as much on the consumer price side, but PPI tends to lead what consumer prices see. So it's really just a matter of time then if firms are seeing these increased input costs that usually somewhere down the next couple of months, that usually does translate to consumer prices.

48:03Tim Stenovec:Any of this, and we're going to talk about this at three o 'clock with Steve Moore, a former economic advisor, President Trump. Fed Governor Stephen Myron said it's still appropriate to continue cutting rates.

48:15Carol Massar:Wait, he does? What? Shocker!

48:18Tim Stenovec:I know, I know. Sorry. But it does raise a question if anything that could happen, at least on a macro level, not just in the U.S., but outside of the U.S. with Iran, with prices increasing because of shipping issues, because of I don't know, what happens with energy, if that changes his view or changes anyone on the Fed view who is actually dovish right now.

48:41Carol Massar:I mean, I think we've known for a while, Myron's an outlier here. So we'll leave his view. Hence why Carol was like, really? Welcome to the show, Captain Obvious. Are you talking to me? I kid, I kid. We'll put his views over in one bucket. But for everybody else, definitely much more wary of the inflation risks to the mandate, which is why the stance to keep rates on hold right now really is the pervasive view. And that, especially with what we've seen with the labor market recently, there do seem to be signs more validating that stabilization stance. This doesn't call for a job market that needs immediate rescue in any way.

49:18Carol Massar:I want to ask you about going to the overall economic activity. And they said activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in seven of the 12 federal reserve districts, while the number of districts reporting flat or declining activity increased from four in the prior period to five in the current. And they said although consumer spending increased slightly in balance, two districts reported ongoing declines, many noted that sales were dampened by economic uncertainty, increased price sensitivity, and lower-income consumers pulling back on spending. And again, not a new narrative, but you do wonder if there's still this feeling of unease.

49:52Carol Massar:And this, should we assume this is prior to what happened last weekend in terms of the invasion on Iraq? None of that is included in here. Yeah, no, this is before the Iran war. So this is Iran, right? Yes. No, yeah. Yeah, we're on. I remember that one too. Sorry, but go ahead. That's all right. I mean, I think, you know, there have been some economists lately who have raised some doubts about what we call this K-shaped economy. Yeah. So that idea that wealthier consumers are propelling all of spending right now and that lower income consumers are really falling behind. I think where their doubt stems from not so much that the wealthy are continuing to spend, but just how much low income consumers are not spending as much.

50:33Carol Massar:How much are they pulling back? And when you see, I mean, granted, all of this is anecdotal data, like we don't have any hard numbers in this report. This is just what Fed presidents and their districts observe as far as activity in their areas. That still speaks to, though, that this trend is very much still happening. And you do see evidence in the hard data that would support the idea that lower income consumers are spending less. All right. Going to leave it there. Listen, thank you so much. We're on to, though, the jobs report. Just real quickly before I let you go. What are we anticipating on Friday?

51:03Carol Massar:It's going to be a tough read, I think. The payrolls number, there was significant strike activity in February, as well as winter weather that could make the payrolls figure a little messy. So we're looking at the unemployment rate to keep it clean. This is the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeart radio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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