Stock Slide Deepens in Run-Up to Nvidia and Jobs

24:38But it just didn't play out that way. So the weather patterns were a lot more mild. And as a result, we didn't see products sell through at the same rate. Hey, I want to take a bigger kind of step back and look at the big picture environment of what you sell into the U.S. energy grid, because we talk a lot each and every day about the new data centers that are coming along, the increased demand that we're seeing not just from consumers, but from companies when it comes to energy, increasing energy prices. And we understand the grid is definitely cobbled together. And what a grid looks like in one community is not what it looks like in another community.

25:13But how would you characterize the resilience of the U.S. energy grid right now? Well, you know, they do grade the grid and they grade a lot of the major infrastructure every year. And I think the grid got a D this year. So, you know, I think when you when you look at the that's a report from the civil engineers. Who we should note are the ones who want to be, you know, building and building this stuff. So we have to take those grades with a grain of salt, I think. Well, I think you're right on that. But still, nonetheless, I mean, outages have been on the rise, right? Maybe this year, this past season was a pretty mild one.

25:46But outages are on the rise in terms of the frequency of the outages and also the duration. And, you know, it used to be weather delivered a lot of those knockout punches to the grid in terms of 80 percent of all outages caused by something driven by weather directly. you know, hurricanes, ice storms, things like that. What we've been seeing is an ongoing trend here, a trend that's been forming around outages that are happening because you've got constraints of supply where demand is overwhelming supply. If you go back, probably the best case we can give you an example is February of 2021 in Texas with the freeze down there, right?

26:18So you had just very cold, you know, temperatures down in Texas, not historically cold, but very cold. and all of the heat is either electrical in nature, heat pump or baseboard heating. And it overwhelmed the amount of supply that was available. And what you saw there is ERCOT, the grid operator, they basically had to make a tough choice to turn everybody off. They took the decision to disconnect millions of homes and businesses to save the major elements of the grid from long-term destruction. And so we're seeing these types of patterns. You mentioned we're seeing demand growing at a rate that we haven't seen in two decades.

26:58So they're only talking about a couple of percentage points increase, and it sounds like something small to you and I. But when you talk about the grid in kind of the greater context, a couple of percentage points of increases in demand is a lot. It's projected, especially when you look at the data center build out, 100 gigawatts of power is going to be needed over the next five years. And so that's like the equivalent of adding 20 New York cities. So if you think about just the amount of power that that is the raw power on the grid that's going to be needed. And it's happening at a time when we're actually retiring a lot of older assets, coal-fired plants and some other things like that.

27:31Carol Massar:Well, you know, one thing I want to ask you, Erin, just to provide some synergy with our earlier guest, Chris Whalen, a Whalen Global Advisor, someone who we've talked to since the great financial crisis. He analyzes banks, the financial system, but we talked a lot about AI and the spend that's going on. And he's got a little bit more subdued view of the impact that AI will have on us longer term, that maybe it won't be as innovative or disruptive as some are saying. If it's not, like, how do you think about that? What if it isn't as big as everybody says? How do you as a CEO of a company think about smartly what your exposure or what your build or what your spend should be in exposure to that when there is still the TBD is a big TBD?

28:18Yeah, I'm sure as the case with Generac and other companies, you know, a lot of boardroom conversations around this topic, right? Is it a bubble? How long will it last? Is it a five-year run, a 10-year run, a two-year run? You know, I think what we know now, and we can look at our own business, how we're deploying AI, right? So we're using AI in our operations, in the manufacturing floor, we're using it in our customer support functions, we're using it across the business to drive optimizations. And we're doing that as a trade-off for adding heads, right? So I think a lot of businesses are looking at AI as a way to, okay, can we gain enough efficiencies where we don't have to add as many new heads into the business?

28:55And so I think those trends are very well pronounced. In fact, we have a bunch of conversations and a lot of projects that are ongoing to utilize AI in that fashion. So I look inward and we see we're using it. And we see a lot of opportunity in the future to use AI even more deeply in our operations. and every company in America is going through this same process, large and small. And I think personally, I think this is something that is a game changer, obviously, for businesses and the way we are productive and how productive we can be as a business and the impact it can have on our customers and the impacts it can have on our products as well.

29:30So when I look at that and you look at the kind of game changing nature of it, I think even if it, let's say for the sake of argument that maybe it's not going to play out over the next two years the same way we all, you know, different forecasts have said it's going to be, you know, dramatically higher than anything we've ever seen. Let's say it doesn't turn out that way. I do think over time, you're talking about a, this is a game changer in terms of the technology and the way it's being deployed. And I don't think there's any, you know, there's any reason to believe that this isn't going to be something that's going to, you know, obviously have a tremendous amount of spending underpinning it for a long time.

30:04But the connection to your business and what it does for people and companies that want to buy machines from Generac, does it mean the grid becomes more resilient and more reliable because it needs these upgrades in order to support the power demand? Is that net-net not so great for your business because, well, things are more reliable? Yeah, that's very true. I think in the context of a broader grid kind of network, right, the ability to kind of shift if you've got a problem in one part of the network to a part of the network that doesn't have a problem. I think in our business, though, frankly, what happens is it's kind of the last mile, right?

30:41So that line that connects directly to your home, right? If a tree falls on that line, there's not a lot that AI is gonna be able to do for you personally, for your home or your business. And that really is at the heart of our, kind of our resiliency part of our business. I would say that the other side of this coin, of course, is as we put more data centers on the ground and you see that demand for power continue to increase. If we don't have enough supply, I do think that we're gonna have continued problems here. The Texas example that I gave you is an example from several years ago, but what we're seeing is localized pockets where there's just not enough power.

31:17That's a problem.

31:18Carol Massar:Aaron, someone listening, watching right now said, hey, ask Aaron when the 28 kilowatt generator that you were talking about when you were on with us in August, when that's going to, I guess, be available. Just got about 30 seconds. Yeah, today. We just opened shipping for the product today. So it's a brand new product line for us. And it's the largest air-cooled home standby generator on the market. So great product. All right, good stuff, good stuff. Hey, listen, we always appreciate time with you. Be well. Aaron, Jockfeld, joining us. Chairman, president, and CEO of Generac, joining us from Wisconsin on this Monday.

31:55Stay with us. This more from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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33:51Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., Member FINRA, and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures.

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36:12Carol Massar:You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube. I want to get to our conversations from the C-suite continuing on this Monday. And something that caught our attention was from our Bloomberg Law team. And they wrote about OpenAI and its most recent update to its usage policies for ChatGPT that provides kind of a window into the company's efforts to insulate itself from potential liability for handing out legal advice to its users.

36:47Carol Massar:Tim, the company's update, they tweak policies about how ChatGPT and other products can be used to provide legal and medical device. And although some lawyers prematurely and inaccurately celebrate the changes as an outright ban on giving legal advice, the update was more a change in wording. ChatGPT still produces legal advice, including drafting contracts if asked to do so. OK, so a brave new world. Don't take legal advice from us. No. Choose whether or not you want to take it from a large language model. Curious what Laura Chambers has to say about this and sort of everything that is this layer of technology that's kind of underlying everything in our ecosystem right now.

37:26She's CEO of Mozilla Corporation. She joins us from San Francisco. Mozilla is the global nonprofit dedicated to ensuring the Internet remains open, inclusive and equitable. And you might know the company from its Firefox web browser. And that's really where I want to start and sort of understanding this layer of technology that we're talking about so much that so many of us are using. And I wonder how you look at it as a way that it's part of the ecosystem now, Laura. Is this like, is it a web browser? Is it like internet access was in the 1990s? Are there going to be no such thing as like, you know, AI companies because everything is going to be an AI company?

38:03How should we be thinking about it?

38:05Carol Massar:Yeah, it's a moment of tremendous change. One of the big shifts we're seeing is a really renewed interest in browsers as a category. Perplexity just launched their Comet browser. OpenAI just launched their Atlas browser. And it makes sense. The browser has been around for decades, and it's a product we use all the time, but we don't think about it very often. And it's not surprising that AI companies are getting into this space. The browser has incredible access into credentials, your tabs, where you're browsing, how you're spending your time. And as you know, AI companies are very hungry for that information.

38:41Carol Massar:So it is sort of a moment of resurgence for the browser right now. Is the browser the gateway to all of this? Or is it not because we're using apps like Claude or ChatGPT? What we're finding is that the folks that created those apps are feeling that the interface is a little clunky right now. That you might be in a browser and then you have to go to another tab and back and forth a little bit. And so I think that there will be a role to play for apps. But what we're certainly seeing from OpenAI and others is that they're really interested in getting into the browser space. But I think the browser is changing.

39:16Carol Massar:The browser has traditionally been a container. You know, you have a URL and a search bar, you have some tabs, and the browser renders content on the web for you. The shift that we're expecting to see is that the browser will become more of an agent to actually do work on your behalf in that browser interface. But with that shift becomes a big shift in power of data as well. You know, the AIs now have more information about your credentials, where you're spending your time, where you're spending your money. And we know that people are worried about that. 60 % of people in the U.S. are really worried about privacy with AI.

39:52Carol Massar:And the other 40 % probably should be as well. And so I think to be successful in this space, people are going to have to go back to those values that Mozilla and Firefox are really built on, which is around privacy and choice and control over your experience and your data. Do you feel like it's difficult to compete against the behemoths that are out there? It's always challenging to be a smaller company. The big tech companies consolidate a lot of power, they lock you in, they have vertical integration, but it's something that is incredibly important to do. The internet, if left to its own devices, would always trend to being closed, to being expensive and to just have a few players.

40:30Carol Massar:And that's why it's important to have open source solutions. It's important for alternatives for Firefox, like Firefox, to be there. You know, we have our own browser engine called Gecko. There are only three browser engines left, Microsoft and Opera, everyone else moved over to Chromium. It's expensive to run a browser engine. I know why they did it, but we think it's incredibly important to invest in options like that because very quickly, otherwise you end up in a very, very sort of monopolistic world, which is bad for the health of the internet. And it's bad for the users of the internet. So are you creating a web browser?

41:08Are you changing Firefox in order to be an AI first browser so it can compete with whatever browser OpenAI ultimately has, whatever browser perplexity ultimately offers in the way Chrome changes from Alphabet's Google?

41:21Carol Massar:Yeah, at Firefox, we always adapt to where users are going and what they need. And not all of our users want AI. About 12 % of users in the US actually don't want AI. So there'll always be an experience for them. But we are actually, we just launched Smart Windows. We have signups for those available right now, which will be our version of AI. But it's going to be centered on privacy, on trust, and on transparency. So you'll be able to have a great AI experience in the Firefox browser. But it's going to be one that is really oriented around what users really need then how we can do a great job of protecting the data.

41:56Carol Massar:Yeah, I am curious too about, you know, you're thinking about who actually owns the data. We know the data is what's going to make AI and LLMs really powerful. So I'm just thinking about, you know, is some of your concerns too about certain companies, again, going back to the big guys, the big players, that they will have the access to most data out there as more and more folks use their search within their AI chat engines, if you will? Yeah, I think that users should be really thoughtful about their data. Now, the good news about data is it can create great experiences, right? You can have seamless, faster experiences.

42:34Carol Massar:There's a lot of good things that data can do. But as you give away more and more data, you're actually giving away control. And so the big tech companies control what you see, where you spend your time, how you spend your money by sort of the algorithms of what they decide to show you. And so even though on the internet, it feels like you have a lot of choice, actually that choice has already been pre-narrowed and it's pre-narrowed by the data that's been collected for you. So I think it's incredibly important for users to think about who's got my data, how is it shaping what I'm seeing, what I'm buying, how I'm spending my time, how I'm spending my money, and to not sort of give that data away without really thinking it through and to make choices that help to preserve privacy.

43:16Carol Massar:Yeah, certainly lots of issues. We're kind of finding our way through all of this. Really good to get your perspective. Laura Chambers, she's Chief Executive Officer of Mozilla, joining us from San Francisco. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

43:33Whether you're planning a big tech event, launching a new campaign, or just stocking up on team gear, finding the right promotional products makes all the difference. 4imprint offers thousands of options. from on-trend apparel and premium drinkware to tech, totes, and giveaways, so you can find the right fit for any audience, purpose, or budget. You can customize it all, your logo, your message, your look, and many items come with no setup charge to help you save. And if you're really watching the bottom line, you'll find standout choices at every price point so you can make a real impact while staying on budget.

44:06Plus, you'll get expert help, fast turnaround times, and their 360-degree guarantee, so you can be 4imprint certain your order will arrive on time and look exactly right. Whatever your goal, 4imprint makes it easy to find your perfect promo match. Explore the possibilities today at 4imprint.com. 4imprint. 4certain. Support for this show comes from public.com. If you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge. On public, you can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf.

44:43Just describe what you want to do in plain English. Like, if the VIX hits 25, buy a put option on the S &P 500. Or, if my cash balance goes above$20 ,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve of the workflow and your agent handles the rest. Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions, and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com slash market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com slash market.

45:21Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures.

45:36Carol Massar:When you own your own business, you own every decision. Now own the card that rewards you for it. The Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business card brings the best Sapphire Reserve benefits to business owners who expect hardworking rewards. Designed to meet the needs of business owners at scale, this pay-in-full card elevates your travel experience and offers premium benefits and value toward business services that will take your business to the next level. Fuel your business and maximize rewards with 8x points on all purchases through Chase Travel, 3x points on social media and search engine advertising, annual partnership credits, and more.

46:11Carol Massar:Make every journey more rewarding with a$300 annual travel credit and access to a network of airport lounges, whether you're looking for pre-flight productivity or time to rest and recharge. Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business. It's the card that gives back all you put in. Learn more at chase.com forward slash reserve business. Chase for business. Make more of what's yours. Accounts subject to credit approval. Restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., member FDIC. Wise is the smart way to manage the currencies you need around the globe. If you've ever sent money internationally using a traditional bank, there's a good chance you've paid more than you realized.

46:52Hidden fees, exchange rate markups, and extra charges can quietly add up before your money even arrives. There's a better way. Try Wise. Wise uses the exchange rate you'd usually find on Google, helping you avoid the unwelcome surprises that often come with international transfers. Whether you're sending money to family overseas, spending while on your holiday abroad, or paying bills across borders, Wise makes moving money simple, transparent, and straightforward. Wise offers 24-7 customer service and runs over 7 million daily checks to spot and stop fraud. and most transfers happen in under 20 seconds, which means your money arrives in less time than you've been listening to me.

47:30Join millions saving billions. Be smart. Get wise. Visit wise.com or download the wise app today. T's and C's apply.

47:42Carol Massar:You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. or watch us live on YouTube. Yes, indeed, everybody. We're driving to the close on this Monday. Already? I know. Time flies. 17 minutes until we wrap up the trade. And what's going to be a super busy week, as we've mentioned, NVIDIA on Wednesday, we get their results. We get Fed Minutes. Also on Wednesday, we've got retail earnings coming our way. And then we get a delayed, much delayed September jobs report now that the government is back open and running.

48:20Carol Massar:So we'll get that on Thursday. In the meantime, we've got some selling here on Monday. Yeah, we do. Taking a look, as we just heard from Charlie at the S &P 500, seeing it down 1.3%, just off our worst levels of the session, the S &P 500, or excuse me, 1.25%. The NASDAQ composite down 1.3%, the Dow down 1.4%. Yeah, most names in the S &P are lower. Hey, let's get to it with us. Back with us is Sevastie Balafast. She is founder and CEO at Goldvest Advisory. The firm has about$720 million in assets under management, and great to have her back here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. It's been a little while.

48:51Carol Massar:Good to have you. Thank you. How are you? And how are you thinking about, I mean, I can't believe we're almost ready to wrap up 2025, but the market environment, we talked about Bitcoin, that's pulling back. We've seen stocks pull back, questioning of the AI trade. There's concerns about we don't get another Fed rate cut come December. How do you sum up the market environment right now? Look, this is a healthy breather. I think it's been a great market. We have to remember that we're still up double digits on the S &P over, you know, 13 or 14 percent. And tech is up even more. So a lot of clients that had a greater percentage of tech in their portfolios, they're doing great.

49:29Carol Massar:Even bonds are up. If you look at the aggregate bond index up over six or seven percent for the year. So, yes, we've had a little bit of a pullback. I think it's a healthy breather, but good results so far for the year. You said healthy breather a couple of times there. Where are we in the breath? Like the beginning of the deep breath or like, is this the end of the deep breath we're breathing out now we'll find out more from the video on wednesday we mentioned that but i think we're still early on in the ai trade you're a believer i am a believer this is just early innings we're still early innings and there was some recent commentary of you know some prominent people shorting some stocks and taking a look and like really questioning do we have the energy capacity that we will need do we have all of this so i think it's healthy but at the same time, and we'll hear this on Wednesday, I mean, it was just last month that the CEO of Nvidia was talking about over$500 billion of commitments that he's already seeing for next year.

50:27Carol Massar:So I think we're still early innings in this AI trade. But how do we know it's just not an overspend? And we talk about the circular financing that we seem to be seeing of companies linking up and they do a deal, OpenAI or Nvidia, and then they're, I don't know, spending on Nvidia chips. Like, it's just it seems a little close. That's some part of the market. And I'll say some companies like Oracle, for example, are getting their stock prices are down more than others like Microsoft that are seeing real earnings and real return on their investment already. So I think it's not going to be the same for anyone.

51:03Carol Massar:They're going to be winners and losers. And that's not clear already today. But there are some that you can see. So Oracle taking on some debt that maybe they don't, you know, that's raising some alarms. But there are companies that are making real return on their investments. I mean, how do we know that companies aren't signing up to make sure they have access to data centers and are playing around or having access to LLMs and that they're playing around with it now, but that they're going to say, that's pretty expensive. I don't really need to be doing this. And so we start to see some fallout at some point.

51:39Carol Massar:We might see that fallout at some point. But for what we're seeing, even into next year, the capital expenditures that companies had talked about are there. And so companies have been talking about that. CEOs. So, you know, it's kind of hard to tell what's going to happen three years out, five years out. But I think if we take a shorter term view, even in the next 12 months, that that's real money that's there. So at some point it will be an overinvestment. But I don't think we're there yet. and we just don't have clarity. As a result, what do you do? You can't be invested in only tech, right?

52:10Carol Massar:That's where the diversification needs to come in. We just spoke with Zach Pandell, head of research over at the crypto asset manager, Grayscale Investments. I know you caught part of the conversation. He was talking about the crypto being treated like an alternative inside a portfolio. Are you doing that? Not yet. No, we're not. No, we're not there yet. No, we're not using Bitcoin. similar to maybe what we were talking about earlier. You were mentioning earlier, like I also either you're a believer or you're not quite there yet. And the people that are believers, they're backing Bitcoin and see it as an alternative investment.

52:48Carol Massar:I think there are other better ways to capture alternative investments. But is it a way that we ultimately are all transacting and so that we all will have access to it? Like I don't see the need yet. I don't see the need yet. I can't explain it to my clients why you're going to hold this asset that's based on the supply and demand. Maybe the price goes up. Maybe the price comes down as it is now. I have a hard time explaining to my clients what the fundamental value is. Where is the cash flow? Where is it going to get to? Which is what you were kind of asking. Yeah, I mean, it was what I was asking, but maybe a better question for him.

53:20And I'll ask you this question now, because I thought of it just now is, do you have gold in their portfolios?

53:24Carol Massar:OK, we do have gold in our portfolio. So how do you explain the use of gold? OK, so more recently and since the Ukraine invasion that happened a few years ago now, you have been seeing large funds, large central bank buying of gold in portfolios. And I think that continues. I don't think we're done with that. So you're seeing more adoption and you're seeing more of that buying. And that was a big driver of gold along with inflation. And gold has been around a lot longer than Bitcoin. And so we've seen the correlation also, if we're worried about inflation, and yes, that is something that we worry about on behalf of our clients, then gold is another better way to put it in your portfolio as an alternative.

54:05Carol Massar:But could society at some point, like rethink of what crypto is and think of it as really like gold? And so we shift. It could be. Is it just about perception or is it real value? Well, I think it's about perception and the adoption. how much will people start using Bitcoin? I think that's a big part of it. And that's why some people are taking the approach. Again, we haven't done this for our clients at this point, but some people are taking the approach of saying, why wouldn't you take, depending on your total asset allocation, take a percent, take 2%. It's like a lottery ticket. If it does get to that, some smart people, Kathy Wood, are talking about Bitcoin at over a million dollars.

54:45Carol Massar:So why not take a small percentage and put it in there? All right, Sevastie Balafast, Thank you so much of Goldvest Advisory. She's the CEO. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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