Stocks Stage Rebound as Dip Buyers Wade Back In: Markets Wrap

22:56Carol Massar:Yeah, here's$5 billion so you can buy$5 billion worth of stuff from us. Right. You guys at Bloomberg had this incredible visual that I think made it on Michael Burry's post. We were talking about the post. Yes, yes. But that is such a great visual. I've seen more simplistic ones of a power strip with the plug plugged into the power strip. Yeah, but that's exactly true, right? And I think the boom so far has been finance debt of cash flows. It's been largely equity finance. But now you've got, to just pick on the MAG7 cohort, MAG7 free cash flow growth has gone from more than 60 % year over year six quarters ago to now two quarters in a row of negative.

23:41And so you're starting to see more deals financed with that. That's not necessarily a bad thing. It's just a different environment. But I do want Meta and Alphabet, right? Didn't they just recently do it? Oversubscribe. Like, there was lots of investor interest. But I do, like, I don't know, Liz, what, we just have to keep an eye on it or what? I think, you know, valuation is a tough one. I think valuations, and I'm going to say this generally, not just specific to AI stocks or Max 7. It's not a market timing tool. It's more a temperature gauge than it is a timing gauge. It's almost an indicator of sentiment.

24:19There are times where valuations can get stretched and they can get more ridiculously stretched. and the market still has a long runway ahead of it. So I think it represents some of the angst that's coming into the narrative right now, but it doesn't necessarily pretend impending doom. It's just a cost-saver AI, and it boosts margins. So we had the early focus solely on the hyperscalers and the chips, and then more recently it's gone into the energy usage and the data centers. Because now I think where you're actually getting meat on the bones in terms of productivity statistics, in terms of the beneficial to cost, is the users of AI.

25:02And I think that is likely to continue.

25:04Carol Massar:But then does it create this destructive element in our society as a result of those entry-level jobs, those white-collar jobs, those blue-collar jobs that end up being completely eliminated? I mean, I know we're talking about a future that none of us can see, but we had an interesting conversation with David Weston last week. And he was basically like, how do we have this payoff without the money savings from getting rid of all these employees, basically? I think that we're in a moment of creative destruction, to quote Schumpeter. And that happens anytime we have a major innovation or we've shifted our economy from being an ag economy to industrial, industrial to innovation.

25:43And that happens. But ultimately, new types of jobs are created. I actually think that companies that don't adopt AI are going to have more job losses. I think what we need to bring in is what AI doesn't yet provide and maybe won't ever. You know, the C's, creativity and culture and community and connection, context. So I think there's still, I still think AI, yes, it is replacing certain kinds of jobs, but I think it's replacing tasks more than it's replacing full occupations. But I think workers have to adapt to it and adopt it and bring it into their lives, or they will be left behind. You know, I pulled up my phone because someone came up to us, and Dwayne, who is a financial advisor, he's here, and he said, you guys did something on AI.

26:38No, he said you. I did. You did something on AI. At an event, and we had somebody who showed how to use AI. And he said, after that, I went home and started playing with Chachi BD.

26:46Carol Massar:This was the panel you did at this conference last year in San Francisco. No, it wasn't. No? I don't think so. Okay, well, it was something. But anyway, there's a lot of stuff going on. But what he said is he was able to ask you questions, do analytics so much faster. It was accurate. And he said, it just took less time. And I actually produced better returns for my clients, which was pretty cool stuff. It is a game changer, but the hallucination rates are still high enough. They're low still digits, but high enough that I think it was Gene Munster. He spoke right before me at a recent conference who said, you know, LLMs are like an intern.

27:28They do a lot of the work for you, but you kind of have to check their work. Got to keep an eye on them. Next 6 to 12 months, what do you think the investment environment looks like? I think these bifurcations that have pervaded the economy, even the inflation data, and obviously the stock market, I don't see a convergence to any significant degree. I think you're going to still see those bifurcations, whether it's from a CapEx perspective, AI or non-AI, asset owners versus non-asset owners, high-income consumers versus low-income consumers, tariff-impact goods versus non-tariff-impact goods from an inflation standpoint, and then obviously all those bifurcations.

28:05What I would watch for that may be interesting is we could have a situation where if some of the mega cap names, some of the leadership names, continue to have some sort of pullback phase, watch what the rest of the market does. I don't think it's going to be extreme as late 2022, but what was interesting about that low in October of 2022 relative to the low prior to that, in June of 2022 is that when you had the real crush, there was greater participation under the surface. That's what you want to look for. We will do that. Liz, thank you so much. Always great to see you guys. Thank you. Same here.

28:43Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab.

28:45Carol Massar:Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

28:54Carol Massar:This is the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2 p.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130. Can't wait to get to our next guest. We're gonna have a lot of fun with him. Omar Aguilar, he's CEO and CIO of Schwab Asset Management. We're just talking about just how much money is under the Schwab universe. We're talking about$1.6 trillion in assets under management. Omar joins us here on site at Schwab Impact 2025 in Denver.

29:29Carol Massar:Good to be with you again. How are you? Doing very well. Can you believe this is the 35th year we have done Impact? And for me, it's 14 years. It's just unbelievable. Well, let's talk about this year because as we were chatting ahead of this interview, you made the joke, I wish we could just end the year right here. Because it's been a good year. It's been a good year. But what does that portend for the next two months? It's been great for investors. It's been great for investors. You actually see it. I would probably say there were many points throughout the year where we all wish things were actually going to be different.

30:01Carol Massar:And I don't think anybody anticipated that we're going to be at this stage so far into this year. From the beginning of the year, the uncertainty around administration to Liberation Day to recovery to the rise of AI to the economy, the consumer, all the way to where we are now. It's such has been a ride that I think investors have taken advantage of. You know, I was thinking about your background, and I just want to lay it out. You've got 25 years of investment management experience in equity markets. You've seen a lot of cycles, and I know I think I often reach out to you guys to ask you about this.

30:34What do you make of some of the recent stress that we've seen, Omar, whether it was concerns about credit, some of the regional bank issues again? We've heard different stories about whether or not credit concerns are something that might linger for a little bit. And then there's the private credit market. So how do you see it? And do you see it at all impacting kind of the tone of trade and activity on your platforms?

30:55Carol Massar:Yes, it is. It is interesting because, yes, I have seen a lot of tech. I have, too. So we're just like a good bottle of wine. You know, my gray hairs, you know, take, you know, I'm taking pride of it. But but yes, you know, it is interesting because, you know, what we what I have seen historically is you actually go to the source of what is actually maybe the reasons why something cracks. There will always be in every single cycle, you know, areas of risk that are what we call idiosyncratic. That's such a fancy word. But, you know, what that means is that there will always going to be things that will happen that will make people nervous.

31:30Carol Massar:And we just need to understand whether it's systemic or it's just isolated to a certain area. Interesting enough, you mentioned about, you know, the particular credit market. You know, the credit market has been incredibly resilient since 2008. And I think when you look at the current, even the high-yield market, it's not as junky as it used to be. I remember back in 2005, 2006, or 2001 and 2002, those were periods where you will really feel that there was a lot of delinquencies, there was a lot of risk, there was a lot of uncertainty around them. When you look at it today, the delinquencies are growing, but not outside of the norm that you will have in this part of the cycle.

32:09Carol Massar:Why do you think that's not happening? Well, a lot of that has to do with corporate America. Their balance sheets are fairly, fairly strong. And the amount of leverage that you see in corporate America is basically to the lowest in many decades. So what that actually means is that, yes, companies that are taking excess leverage and safe risk and they're more risky in the way they manage their business, they're clearly more at the risk end. But the majority of America, it's actually pretty solid in terms of how they manage their balance sheets. And in fact, a lot of the reasons we were talking about in other forums about the reasons why tariffs have not been having the impact as big as it has been is because profit margins have been very, very benign and have not been affected as much.

32:52Carol Massar:So does that mean that it's only a matter of time before we actually see inflation as a result of these tariffs when these companies say we're not going to pad the impact anymore with our healthy profit margins? We're ready to pass these on? Well, we're already seeing some of that. We're already seeing two things. One is we're already seeing companies that are, they're not going to have a choice, but actually pass through those increasing prices to the consumers. You know, we have seen those companies that have the biggest, you know, opportunities and the biggest, widest margins. They're already good, but they're ones that are getting squeezed and squeezed.

33:25Carol Massar:We already see some of that already in the early parts of this earning season. The second part that we're observing is consumption. you know consumers and the demand destruction started to happen you're starting to see a little bit in terms of like you know airlines and the tickets and you know you see that actually on my way here for the first time the plane was not full that that was unique because you know for the entire year you know you always go there and it's actually a big big chunk of it so you can see a little bit of that consumption starting to just get affected by it this happened to us last Last month on our way back from Los Angeles, the person at the gate said, this is crazy.

34:02Carol Massar:It's been full pretty much until now. The flight was empty heading back. Again, it's an anecdote. We're not hearing it from airlines yet. But airlines have been so smart about keeping those planes packed, right? And so to me, it seems like a clear indicator. I know I said you've seen a lot of cycles, but I think about your background, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch. These are firms that are no longer around post-GFC, the great financial crisis. So I guess I always try to think, you know, what are we missing in an environment where so many people are like, it's okay, it's okay, it's okay. And I'm like, what are the possible risks, do you think, for investors in this environment?

34:36Carol Massar:Well, we have seen, and actually we saw this in the last six weeks, if you look at the performance of those companies that did not have positive earnings, negative earnings companies in small and mid-cap sectors, they outperformed by almost 20 % in a short period of time. So what is called the junk rat. And in many cases, the concern is that this component of excess goes into areas that goes like that. And that volatility is not healthy. You know, volatility, when you have something that is extreme valuations, that's still generating earnings, but you know that there are multiples way ahead, it is normal and it's healthy.

35:13Carol Massar:And in fact, I tend to do this to clients and advisors here to say, hey, look, some volatility is healthy. You know, you don't want a straight up market. I think the exposure to momentum is one that I have seen in many cycles. It blows up. It goes very quickly up, and it just blows up very quickly. It doesn't have to be all the cancer. So the concern we have now is that there is too much momentum in the market still, and it needs to be somehow corrected. Is it the AI trade momentum? It is beyond just the AI trade. The AI trade, if you look at it, a lot of that is being represented in CapEx. So the capital expenditure from a majority of companies has translated into AI.

35:54Carol Massar:Those companies are generating flows. Not all AI companies are doing it. But now they're tapping debt markets. They're tapping debt markets. And at the same time, you're starting to see that there's companies that are spending in capital. They're not seeing their returns. They're starting to just be questioned about their capital expenditures and their ROI. So I think some of that, it's healthy. It is the right thing. Not all AI is going to be the same. And I think to me, that is a good thing for that consolidation. A little of those pieces will actually come to break. But if there's a blow up, is it the AI thing or is it something else maybe in terms of risk?

36:26Carol Massar:Well, I think it's just generally market because the concentration risk is the one that worries me the most. If you think about until this moment, only 30 % of the companies in the S &P 500 have outperformed the index. The rest have underperformed. So you can actually just feel how that translates into a significant amount of rebalancing that needs to happen for this to continue. And again, going back to what you said, this is repeated. In the past, you've seen it was energy at some point. It was consumer discretionary at some other point. It was tech back in the 2000s. So this time, even though it's not the same as with back there because companies are generating free cash flow, still, you feel that there's going to be some rebalancing that needs to happen.

37:09Who do we have to talk to to get more time with you? I'm just going to put it out there. We want to talk more to your people so we can get more time with you. Omar, thank you always. Always appreciate it. Omar Aguilar, he's CEO and CIO of Schwab Asset Management.

37:21Carol Massar:Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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40:37Carol Massar:From game day crowds to memorable meals, big league reliability for any business. That's genius. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. Yesterday on the plane. Yeah. I'm writing my intro for Kathy Jones. Furiously. Oh, I got some stuff to talk about because there's a flight to quality happening right now. I like that you did that. And then today. I know. It's basically like, oh, erase the whole intro. I know. The flight to quality that we saw yesterday.

41:17Exactly.

41:18Carol Massar:Isn't happening? I don't know. We got some decent maybe data today. I guess that's what it was. But does that change the narrative? I don't know. I thought yesterday changed the narrative. What is a long-term narrative? Let's see what Kathy Jones has to say. She's Chief Fixed Income Strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. She joins us here on site at Schwab Impact in Denver. She has to figure out the longer-term narrative. I thought yesterday was kind of this turning point with this flight to quality. We saw equity sell off. There was this chorus of Wall Street executives who were like, okay, not so fast.

41:47Carol Massar:What did you think? Yeah, it certainly felt like the stock market was getting a little yippee. That's what the president said earlier this year. But he said about the bond market, he said it. Yeah, I know. As you know. Now it's their turn at the stock market. And so I thought we had a decent bid in the bond market, but it wasn't huge. In times past, if you had a really good sell-off in the stock market from elevated levels, you'd get a big jump. We didn't get a big jump. Why didn't we? You know, I'm not sure that the bond market has a lot of room for longer-term yields to go down absent a very big change in the economic outlook.

42:30So there's a floor, you see.

42:32Carol Massar:Is a big change in the economic outlook if the Supreme Court says, sorry, IEPA tariffs, those are not legal. Yeah, I don't think that has a big impact on the bond market. $100 billion that could go back to companies and consumers. You know how much debt we have? Yes, I do. Trillions. In terms of the bond market, I'm growing in is a fairly small drop in the bucket. And, you know, then how fast does that actually get back to somebody's pocketbook for spending? But, you know, in general, the economy seems to be chugging along. Great. Okay. It's not great for everybody, but in aggregate, it's good enough.

43:09Inflation is stuck at 3 % and kind of edging higher. Where do we go from here? If you've got inflation at 3%, maybe moving up at a 4 % 10-year yield, that's equilibrium right now. We need something to change. Do you think it's going to change? I think in 2026, we'll probably get enough slowing growth and some easing and inflation that we'll see yields come down. But I think the market was just way over its skis, expecting the Fed to cut over and over again. And it is very difficult to forecast all the time. But now between Tarasoft, no data, policy shut down, policy making shut down, you know, I think the market's just kind of, the bond market's kind of just going, whoa, we're pretty well priced.

44:05Let's just sit here and wait for things to happen. Well, so then does that increase the chances, Kathy, you think of the Fed having a policy misstep here? It's certainly a possibility, but I think my impression that I get from Paul and from many of the other members is, look, we're back to this navigating on a cloudy night thing, right? We don't have information. The path ahead isn't clear. And we've taken a couple of steps. We're not restrictive anymore. So now we pause and we wait and see what happens if it goes slow. I'm a sailor and I've navigated at night and it can be kind of not so great.

44:44You can hit a rock or you could hit something because you just don't read something correctly. Or things can be smooth sailing. So is there a chance, though, that I don't like I think so many people are shocked that the economy is still growing and we're kind of doing all right. And the market continues, the equity market to hit highs. Not necessarily what everybody was predicting a few months ago. But I just do wonder, what's the thing we could be missing? Well, right now, financial conditions have been very supportive. Yeah. And I think that's another reason the Fed can kind of wait. They're saying, well, there's no evidence that the level of interest rates is holding back the economy.

45:25People can borrow as much as they want. Except for housing still a little bit. Yeah, maybe. But, I mean, you know, even housing is starting to kind of recover because prices are adjusting. So, you know, what is the thing that gets us? It's never the thing you're looking at in your face, right? It's the thing you don't know. I'm worried about the buildup of debt, you know, behind the scenes and the shadow banking system.

45:51Carol Massar:Private credit? Yeah, to some extent. We know that the quality isn't great there, and we know that some firms are struggling. How would a crisis like that in private credit manifest? I think the issue is who's lending to the private credit folks. Don't the banks lend to the private credit folks? Yeah. So what's their exposure? Well, we don't know. Well, you know, because private credit is private, you know, it's hard to know the quality of the assets in any given day. Your face is really telling. Are you concerned that the exposure by the banks is a lot more than we know? I think the banks, you know, no.

46:34I think the banks are, the major banks are fine because against their will, they've been forced to hold a lot of capital since the Basel rules. And so I think the banks are okay. But it does get to be sort of a cascade, right? You know, one thing leads to another, leads to another, and a lot of interwoven lending takes place, and there's hidden leverage. And that's where you worry about things starting to change. I don't have any particular. I didn't mean to put you on the spot. No, I don't have any particular, like, this guy's going to blow up story to tell. These are the ways in the past we've run into trouble.

47:15Somebody gets over leveraged, asset prices get out of whack, people are overconfident, and then things change.

47:22Carol Massar:So it kind of brings us back to the Fed and how the Fed works in an environment such as this, in an environment where it's not getting much data. We did hear from Lisa Cook this week. She said she sees the risk of further labor market weaknesses greater than the risk of inflation will pick up. Chicago Fed President Austin Gould, we said he was more nervous about inflation. Who's right? Yeah, we'll find out. We'll find out when we reach our destination. Yeah, you know, I'm more in Goolsbee's camp right now. Although the labor market is clearly softened, some of that is supply side, right? So we got the ADP numbers today as a positive number.

47:59Who's to say that that number isn't consistent with equilibrium in the labor market?

48:05Carol Massar:So are these numbers accurate now? Well, ADP is as accurate as we can get. Right now. Yeah, at the moment. But when we used to get government data, we used to get the ADP numbers on the day before, a couple days before. Right. Day before? I don't even remember. It was the same way. Wednesday, right? Yeah, we'd get them a few days earlier. Yeah. And then we'd get the numbers from the government, and they would oftentimes not even be close to one another. Yeah. And that's true. I think part of that is ADP is private sector only. They didn't include government workers. So there's that discrepancy.

48:38And, you know, yeah, their surveys are different. But it's all we've got to go on. So it looks like they're picking back up a little bit. And that's good news. The ISM figures, the manufacturing figures were okay today with prices paid continuing to climb.

48:55Carol Massar:But then you have these fast casual restaurants coming out and saying, hey, we're not seeing the young consumers come in and spend 15 bucks on a lunch. Forgive me, slop bowl, but that's like what they're called now because they're feeling squeezed. Yeah. And that's the issue of the economy is working well for some and not well for others. And we've seen problems in the car loan market, usually subprime borrowers running into trouble. I am concerned about the agricultural sector. Great. We've been really hard hit by tariffs. And, you know, it's not just farmers or agricultural businesses. It's their lenders.

49:34We have banks that lend in that sector as well. So these are pretty good-sized parts of the economy. But we've got then the CapEx spend, wealthier consumers continuing to spend. and that in aggregate is adding up to positive growth. When does, I keep talking about this quote, I know, I don't know, rich European or somebody who just said, you know, I don't want to be a rich person in a poor country. I don't want to be a billionaire in a poor country. When does the lower rung of the K, I mean, I think we were all shocked about the SNAP benefits and how many Americans are getting assistance when it comes to food in the world's richest country.

50:17So when does that, ignoring if you can even the social issues, but the economic costs too of that. And so when does that come home to roost? Are we seeing that with government debt? I don't know. Yeah, we've spent, you know, we've run up a lot of government debt. On different things. Right. On many things to sort of fill the gap. And that's been a positive. But, you know, it's always about the jobs, right? People are okay until they lose a job. Yeah. So that's why the unemployment rate is so crucial to watch. And, of course, we don't really have that. We have now the Chicago Fed putting out their estimate, which is helpful.

50:58Right. That last one was 4.4%, a little bit above the last one we got from the BLS. But 4.4 % is not a high unemployment rate historically. We used to think full employment was around 5%. Right. Right. So, you know, it's going to if there's going to be a problem, it's going to be because people lose their jobs. That's usually the way it happens. It's as simple as that. I mean, not so simple if you're losing your job. It's a it's a big cost. Kathy, so great to have this chunk of time to spend with you. Thank you so much. Thank you. Kathy Jones, she fixed income strategist over at the Schwab Center for Financial Research right here with us on Schwab Impact 2025.

51:36Carol Massar:This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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