Tame CPI Still Spells Trouble for Fed’s Favored Inflation Gauge

16:23Carol Massar:Well, first of all, to the drone attack on the West Coast, I have no idea how Iran would would do that. They're, you know, the longest range drone they have would, you know, crash somewhere in the Middle East before it ever got to the United States.

16:39Tim Stenovec:They did say it could be from some sort of ship. This is just the ABC News report that we're citing.

16:45Carol Massar:No, I understand. I don't see an Iranian ship sneaking up on the West Coast either. There's huge military bases all up and down the West Coast. There's a US plane flying, a military plane from Hawaii to California all the time. There's virtually no way a ship large enough to carry a massive drone strike force is going to sneak up on California. To the second point, though, I mean, Iran's sort of remaining card and the thing that really makes it most dangerous is even if you took away the missiles and drones, they still have a large number of extremely cheap and easy to place naval mines. They have a large number of anti-ship missiles, which have been sort of appearing in the Gulf from day to day.

17:30Carol Massar:I think three or four ships were reported hit today, commercial shipping. And more than that, even, the way this war is being fought, so Iran, the Iranian regime, like their only goal of this war is survival. That's it, to endure whatever punishment the U.S. and Israel meet out and just be standing at the end. Whereas the U.S. sort of has these shifting war aims. It's going to eliminate the nuclear program. are going to disable Iran's military, regime change, all these things. And the fact that we don't know exactly what it's going to be makes it harder for the U.S. to emerge victorious. Well, it's an incredible big take.

18:14Carol Massar:So much detail, costs of war, weapons costs. It's unbelievable. Jerry, thank you so much. Jerry Doyle, joining us from London, Bloomberg News Global Defense Editor.

18:25Tim Stenovec:Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Business Week Daily coming up after this.

18:58Carol Massar:If anybody has more than 10 % of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30 % more productive today with the goal of being 70 % more productive. Yeah. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology. It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things. To listen to the full conversation, visit ibm.com slash smarttalks.

19:51Carol Massar:Support for the show comes from Public. Lately, it feels like there are two types of investing platforms. Some are traditional brokerages that haven't changed much in decades, and others feel less like investing and more like a game. Public is positioned differently. It's an investing platform for people who are serious about building their wealth. On Public, you can build a portfolio of stocks, options, bonds, crypto, without all the bugs or the confetti. Retirement accounts, yep. High-yield cash, yes again. They even have direct indexing. Public has modern design, powerful tools, and customer support that actually helps.

20:26Carol Massar:Go to public.com slash market and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash market. Add paid for by Public Holdings. Brokered services by Public Investing, member FINRA SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, SEC Registered Advisor. Crypto services by ZeroHash. All investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosures at public.com slash disclosures. Being a small business owner isn't just a career. It's a calling. Chase for Business knows how much heart and effort go into building something of your own. That's why they make business growth their priority.

21:00Carol Massar:The Chase team takes the time to understand your mission, where you are now and where you want to go. Their broad range of solutions is designed with you in mind so you can bring your ideas to life. From banking to payment acceptance to credit cards, you can conveniently manage all your business finances all in one place with their digital tools. Looking for tips and advice? Their online resources are always available to give you the solutions you need to help your business thrive. See how your business can get stronger and go farther with Chase for Business. Learn more at chase.com slash business.

21:34Carol Massar:Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. Member FDIC. Copyright 2026. JPMorgan Chase and Company. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube. Well, this morning, our next guest was downtown in the heart of the U.S. financial district. He was ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange.

22:10Carol Massar:He was there to market, to mark, excuse me, the company's listing on the exchange. And this is a company that has really been at the center of, I think it's safe to say, one of the Trump administration's main initiatives when it comes to national security. And that is the build out of crucial minerals and materials.

22:25Tim Stenovec:Yeah, we got with us Gary Evans. He's chairman and CEO of United States Antimony Corporation. It's a$1.4 billion market cap miner, producer and seller of antimony products. It's based in Montana. Canada, the stock up more than 100 % so far this year. Carol, 183 % increase just last year.

22:42Carol Massar:And we do know that about 22 % of the float is short. So investors keep an eye on this one. Gary, so good to have you back with us in studio.

22:49Tim Stenovec:Thank you for having me back so quickly.

22:51Carol Massar:I know. We talked to you last month about a deal that you were doing. And we talked about kind of the build out here in the U.S. And a lot has changed since then. It was Paul Hewitt, right? Yeah, we were America's Gold. Gold and silver. Paul Heer. And the two of you guys working together. Where are you guys in terms of the build-out and certainly the deals with the government? And I also think about here we now have the backdrop of the U.S. war in Iran and probably pressure, something we're going to talk about later in terms of the military stockpiles here in the U.S.

23:23Tim Stenovec:So with respect to the America's Gold and Silver joint venture, we fortunately already have the land. We already have the permits, which puts us several years ahead. And we're doing engineering and construction plans now. We'll start probably in the next 60 days. So we hope to have that plant up and running by this time or summer next year. This time or summer next year? Yeah, so March to June. Yeah. Okay, so it's a little while to get online. Yeah, well, it just takes a year to build the construction. We're talking about a$75 million project. It's not a little rinky-dink addition.

24:00Carol Massar:I wonder about the conversations you continue to have with the U.S. government. And especially, again, going back to this backdrop, are you guys constantly talking? Are they talking about where are you? What does this mean in terms of U.S. national security? Because I do feel like we are increasingly having conversations, and even this week and over the last week and a half, when it comes to what we're seeing in the energy markets, that even nations around the world are now thinking about, okay, what do we need to be energy efficient? So pick your critical commodity or resource that nations around the world are thinking about this.

24:30Tim Stenovec:Well, so two things have happened since I was here a month ago. Last week, we won a$27 million grant from the Department of War. We've been working on that for about six months. The purpose of that money is to reimburse us$20 million plus or minus for our facility in Thompson Falls, which we've been expanding since May. It goes live in two to three weeks. The other$7 million is for our operations up in Alaska. We have got antimony exploration going on there. So that was what that money is for. And then the week before, we announced a new resource report on another critical mineral that's very vital to the government called tungsten.

25:07Tim Stenovec:And tungsten's the second hardest mineral behind diamonds, and it's used for submarines and tanks or shields. And we bought a property in Canada, Sudbury area, last May, and did enough work to be able to get what's called a third-party resource report that you can file with the SEC. and it shows$4.6 billion with a B of future revenues from that property. So we are on a fast track to get that up in operation. We hope to have it done this year. Should investors expect more grants to come down the pipe? I sure hope so because we have a$45 million grant request in the Department of Energy today. We're doing a$75 million grant to the Department of War in 10 days.

25:52Tim Stenovec:we're doing another$15 million grant for the title three for our tungsten flag. As CEO of the company, you have to plan for what revenue or, or money you will actually get when you plan these projects. What is your expectation that you will get those grants? Actually, we, we run our companies if we're not going to get anything. You do. So you can't guarantee this. The base case is we're not, we're not getting any money. We're not getting any money. I think what the government wants us to do is move faster, which is what the money really does. Because I have to go raise capital. I have to do lots of things to fund it myself.

26:29Tim Stenovec:The government jumpstarts me. I can move five times faster than I would with my own money. So Carol asked about discussions with the Pentagon. What about just discussions with other parts of the U.S. government? You guys are talking with the energy. Yeah. Do you have a lobbyist in Washington? Do you have somebody full-time for the company in Washington? How do those discussions work? I hired a guy full-time in D.C. about two and a half months ago. He helped me get this final$27 million done. He's the one that filed the DOE grant for$45 million. He is constantly looking. You know, there's buckets of money in the government and all kinds of places that we don't know.

27:07Tim Stenovec:And so we're trying to find out what they are. They don't necessarily communicate with one another. So it's a process. And then there's a system. I actually hired a former Department of War doctor who's helping us write the white paper. She knows what they're looking for. So we're using all the tools we have available. As you know, General Jack King's on our board. He's given us some guidance. So I was spent last Thursday all day with Donald Trump Jr. in Dallas. We're doing everything we can to try to grease the skids so they know that we really are trying to help the country.

27:39Carol Massar:Gary, safe to say, and it's only been like a month since we talked last, that the pressure, I think you've already kind of mentioned this, that there is more pressure from the government to kind of get all this stuff up and running.

27:49Tim Stenovec:All you could do is listen to the news. When the news is saying we're running out of artillery, that's not something you really want to announce to the world.

27:59Carol Massar:Well, can you give us some clarity around that? Because I think we're trying to understand, is there pressure on U.S. military in terms of the buildback? And I'm just wondering, now that we're in our second week of this conflict with Iran, is it causing stress on antimony or other critical mineral shipments? What are you seeing and what can you tell us around that?

28:21Tim Stenovec:Well, we know there's a stockpile. Okay. Our job is really to build that stockpile further. But it's not just the United States. It's NATO countries. It's Australia. Right. So we're trying to figure out ways that we can put like the hydromet facility with America's gold and silver. That's a different technology that we can take subpar antimony and make mission-grade material. What's a munition, just for example, purposes right now, what's a munition that includes antimony that's used in this war? So what we'd make is a metal. It's a 50-pound ingot, a serial stamp put on a pallet, shrink-wrapped, and shipped to the Department of War.

28:57Tim Stenovec:They give that to Northland, Boeing, GM, whoever's making products that needs antimony. So how long from when you send that shipment, that 50 pound shipment, does it end up in ammunition that can be used in a war? Within days. That's how quickly they can produce it? Well, no, they take that ingot and they'll distribute it to their subcontractors of the military. But what I'm trying to do is melt it down. But I'm trying to understand how long it takes the subcontractors to build those weapons. I got no idea.

29:25Carol Massar:We got to call Northrop. Yeah.

29:27Tim Stenovec:But I mean, we've asked Wayne, too. Yeah. There's not a lot of clarity there. Yeah. And remember, World War II, we shut down all the auto factories and started making tanks and planes and trains and automobiles. We are not there right now. No, we're not there. And, you know, our goal is to try to be sure the government has these critical metals in its fuselage. That's what they need.

29:51Carol Massar:I just have to say, I have a grandmother who was a Rosie the Riveter. She was at a GM plant. But the stress on antimony supplies now, are we seeing a drawdown?

30:00Tim Stenovec:um you know they don't tell me um but i can tell you their orders continue to increase okay so as of right now to fulfill the department of war's orders for 2026 is 85 million dollars of orders okay so okay what does that compare to a year ago zero yeah yeah so it's pretty aggressive hey i you

30:21Carol Massar:know we were thinking about when you were coming in and uh our planning meeting about uh president Trump's upcoming meeting with President Xi, the export controls remain kind of an issue between these two countries when it comes to these critical minerals and materials. Have you seen any indication that China is about to kind of loosen their export restrictions, you're shaking your head, of rare earth elements and permanent magnets in particular?

30:47Tim Stenovec:Well, there's a difference between the rare earths and critical minerals. When Trump met in South Korea. And I know we get them confused and it's understandable trump came out of that with a one-year reprieve on rare earths he actually said critical minerals then the prime minister or the the ministry of china the next day said no no no critical mental so when when tungsten and co and uh antimony were stopped that was september of 24 that's before trump was in office that was during the biden administration Why did that happen? The largest antimony mine in the world called Twinkle Star in China depleted.

31:26Tim Stenovec:125-year-old mine, the largest in the world, done. So China has been, you know, every day that I'm in the market trying to buy antimony, my only competitor is the People's Republic of China. And they're out there throwing money, roads, bridges, whatever they have to do to get that country to sell them antimony. And so I am their competitor in the market.

31:47Carol Massar:So what do you want President Trump to do?

31:49Tim Stenovec:We need floors. I mean, we're dealing with a gorilla that can drive the price down and lose money. And we're talking about the country of China. So we need price floors to protect the industry. Geographically, how is it distributed around the world? As far as antimony, it's typically found with gold. We're currently receiving antimony from the country of Chad, Bolivia, Peru, Chile, Australia, Mexico. now so every time you look at those antimony deposits in those countries different grade it may have arsenic it may have sulfur it may have lead we have to deal with that in our smelter so

32:29Carol Massar:we prefer clean antimony do you think do you see anything you know we go from administration to administration and you know china is a nation that's got these long-term plans right and they As you said, right, exactly. Very different. Just got about 30 seconds. Do you believe that what we are seeing now in these domestic builds of critical precious metals, rare earths, that all this stuff that it will continue? It's a wake up call.

32:56Tim Stenovec:We've been sitting behind the log for 20 years watching this happen. And all of a sudden it happened. And so it's a huge wake up call. And this industry has the capability of meeting these needs. We need time and we need money, but it can be done.

33:09Carol Massar:All right. You are such a gem for always finding time for us and coming back. And you educate us along the way. So we so appreciate it.

33:16Tim Stenovec:You're welcome.

33:17Carol Massar:Congratulations on the listing as well.

33:19Tim Stenovec:Thank you so much.

33:19Carol Massar:Gary Evans, he's chairman and CEO of United States Antimony Corporation right here in studio.

33:25Tim Stenovec:Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

33:33Tim Stenovec:Hello, hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast Smart Talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman and CEO, Arvind Krishna, and I asked him, how can companies use AI to its fullest potential to create smarter business?

33:49Carol Massar:My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example? If anybody has more than 10 % of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30 % more productive today, with the goal of being 70 % more productive. Yeah. Wow. So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say, you can leverage what we did. We're happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process, because the biggest change is not technology.

34:34It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.

34:39Carol Massar:To listen to the full conversation, visit ibm.com slash smarttalks.

34:50Carol Massar:Support for the show comes from Public. Lately, it feels like there are two types of investing platforms. Some are traditional brokerages that haven't changed much in decades, and others feel less like investing and more like a game. Public is positioned differently. It's an investing platform for people who are serious about building their wealth. On Public, you can build a portfolio of stocks, options, bonds, crypto, without all the bugs or the confetti. Retirement accounts, yep. High-yield cash, yes again. They even have direct indexing. Public has modern design, powerful tools, and customer support that actually helps.

35:25Carol Massar:Go to public.com slash market and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash market. Add paid for by Public Holdings. Brokered services by Public Investing, member FINRA SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, SEC Registered Advisor. Crypto services by zero hash. All investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosures at public.com slash disclosures. Small businesses are the pulse of every community. They bring people together, create opportunities, and drive growth. With a widespread presence in communities across the country, Chase for Business supports small business owners at a local level.

36:02Carol Massar:That makes it possible for you to connect, learn from each other, and grow together. There's a real commitment to seeing small businesses succeed. The Chase for Business team has knowledge and expertise that span a wide range of financial areas. They can help you make more informed decisions as you navigate the complexities of running your business. They'll help your business grow with individual guidance and convenient digital tools all in one place. With that guidance and your determination, you can take your business farther and help build a brighter future for your community. Learn more at chase.com slash business.

36:36Carol Massar:Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. The Chase Mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., member FDIC. Copyright 2026, JPMorgan Chase and Company. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube.

37:04Tim Stenovec:So oil climbing in another volatile session as President Trump's escalating rhetoric about the war in Iran outweighed an emergency release of crude reserves by wealthy nations. Earlier today, Jeff Curry, chief strategy officer at Carlisle Energy Pathways, was on Bloomberg surveillance. He said the damage to supply chains from the war will take months to unwind.

37:24Carol Massar:This is not just a disruption oil. It's gas, it's fertilizers, it's metals, it's petrochemicals. The list goes on and on. And then you've disrupted supply chains in countries all over the world. The ships are in the wrong places. The insurances have been canceled. The damage is going to take months to unwind. But I want to bring it to the immediate. There is no policy response that can stop this ascent and crude. None.

37:50Tim Stenovec:That was Carlisle's Jeff Curry earlier today. Back with us, Dr. Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, the author of Saudi Inc. She joins us from Boca Raton, Florida. Ellen, I want to start with this headline we just got from Jen DeLowy and Nathan Risser that the president is preparing to invoke Cold War era powers to pave the way for renewed oil production off the Southern California coast. Sable offshore up 23 % and at 24 % as we speak. I know this news is just getting to you as quickly as it's getting to us. But when you think about U.S. offshore, especially off the coast of Santa Barbara, California, what would that do and how quickly could that get up and running and actually hit U.S.

38:35Tim Stenovec:supplies?

38:36Carol Massar:So I think that largely depends on where Sable is in its efforts. It does seem that they were producing from these platforms last May, not full capacity, but there was production going. So presumably, you know, the pipelines and infrastructure hasn't suffered a tremendous amount of decay. And so, you know, should they receive the go-ahead? Should they not, you know, be being essentially shut down by these regulators? They should be able to get production going fairly quickly. I mean, it doesn't mean like, you know, you press a button and it's instantaneous. But I would say, you know, within a couple of weeks, you know, once they've made sure everything is safe and ready to go and the pipelines are ready and everything, you know, it should be ready to go.

39:21Carol Massar:I would say.

39:23Tim Stenovec:Our Bloomberg piece notes that California relies heavily on foreign crude. It made up about 61 percent of the oil used by its refineries last year. Roughly 30 percent of the state's foreign oil supplies require passage through the Strait of Hormuz, would this be in terms of, and look, again, this is just coming to us the same time it's coming to you. Would this be a drop in the bucket in terms of supply or would this actually be meaningful when it comes to California's energy needs?

39:50Carol Massar:So I think it would absolutely be meaningful for California for a number of reasons. The fact is that this production should have been going for a year now. And I think that a lot of the regulations and these things that California was doing to try to stop it is much more from a political perspective. And so, you know, whatever it takes to kind of cut through that red tape, it would absolutely help California. California, though, has some really strict regulations concerning refining and the type of gasoline that they're allowed to produce there. And basically, they use basically only summer blend gasoline.

40:25Carol Massar:And that means that they can't import gasoline from other states.

40:32Carol Massar:So And so even if there is more oil coming into California, they've still got to get it refined and produced. So I think it absolutely would help. I'm not sure that it would alleviate really high gasoline and high diesel prices as much as one might hope it would.

40:49Tim Stenovec:Yes, Carolyn, I always know when we go to California together, drive by a gas station. For example, today, AAA national average, national average, 358. California's national average, 533. Oh, big difference. Sorry. California friends.

41:04Carol Massar:So what's your read, Ellen, on this of why the president would be doing this? If we think this is a short war, shorter versus longer, would we do this or is he doing this because he thinks this is going to go on longer? I think he's doing it because it's a really good reason to get this particular production going. And overall, in general, it will help America's domestic oil supplies. It will help with energy concerns overall. So there's definitely the reasoning is sound behind it, but it does seem like it's more of a way, oh, hey, here's a great way we can cut through this red tape for this company.

41:42Carol Massar:This is not like a do or die matter here. These supplies are not going to save California residents from massive, massive spikes. So Ellen, is this, president likes deals, right? Likes to make transactions. Is this taking advantage of a situation? Can I go that far and say that? You know, I don't want to come out and to say that, but I would definitely say that he is using the situation to his advantage. It will certainly help. It's not necessarily going to save the world. Now, that may free up more oil to go other places, and it would definitely solve a problem. But there are a lot, many countries are facing much more significant problems from the oil not getting out of the Persian Gulf than the state of California is.

42:27Carol Massar:Well, let's go on that because Sadio Ramko's CEO, Amin Nasser, said yesterday, first public comments since the war choked off Middle East flows. I just want to read what he said. We were reporting it out here at Bloomberg. There would be catastrophic consequences for the world's oil market the longer the disruption goes on and the more drastic the consequences for the global economy. When is that do or die moment? I think we're kind of on the precipice of it. One of the things that we haven't really seen so far is destruction of oil infrastructure, significant destruction of oil infrastructure in the Middle East that would take out production for long periods of time, even after the conflict ends.

43:11Carol Massar:So for example, there were reports that a missile was shot down that was headed for Shaba oil fields. If that missile had hit its target and had destroyed infrastructure there, then we'd really be in a horrible situation as it is. So I think we're lucky we haven't seen that. We're really mostly in this kind of holding pattern of are things actually going to get moving? The president keeps signaling certain things with his language. Oh, things are going to get going soon. We're going to see more oil production. You know, it's safe for tankers. And then on the other hand, we're getting these reports of, you know, a cargo ship, set on fire trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz, no oil tanker in its right mind is going to try to transit the Strait of Hormuz while there's a cargo ship burning there.

43:55Tim Stenovec:Ellen, when you were on our program on Friday, we asked you what would happen if this war went on. And you said if we got to the end of this week, we could see a full-blown crisis. And we asked what that crisis would look like. You said triple-digit oil prices. That came less than 48 hours after you said that that could happen. Well done.

44:13Carol Massar:Was that in your view?

44:15Tim Stenovec:Well, was that was that the peak this cycle? Like, can you make a prediction like that?

44:20Carol Massar:So that's a really good question. Was that the peak? I think that there's a lot of hesitation. I think that at that point, um, that the oil markets were showing just how high they could go. I also think that there are a lot of people that are kind of hinging on what is coming out of the president and what's coming from the administration. And so that's why we're seeing these wild swings based on a deleted tweet from the energy secretary. And they're not really providing a whole lot of concrete information. It's one thing to say, you know, we're working with oil companies. We're doing everything in our power that we can to make it easier for them to increase domestic U.S.

44:57Carol Massar:production and exports. And then it's, you know, that saying that is very different from saying, you know, we will see oil companies increasing production soon because of higher prices. They don't know that. You know, the first shows evidence that they're working towards it. And I think the market is really reacting to this. And so we could see triple digit oil again, or we could not. You're on our speed dial. I just want you to know that. Ellen Wald, you rock. Dr. Ellen Wald, president of Transversal Consulting, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, author of Saudi Inc. This is the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

45:35Carol Massar:Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

45:57Carol Massar:If you follow markets, you know the value of long-term thinking. You plan, you diversify, you prepare for volatility. But even the best strategies can't prevent every bad day. For more than 75 years, Cincinnati Insurance has helped individuals and businesses navigate tough moments with expertise, personal attention, and independent agents who focus on relationships, not transactions. The Cincinnati Insurance Companies. Let them make your bad day better. Find an agent at c-i-n-f-i-n dot com.

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