The Signs That Favor the Bulls in 2026

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1:54management uh the firm has approximately six billion in assets under management and once again we find them in our bloomberg interactive broker studio welcome welcome happy new year it's my favorite place to come you two are my two favorites i love being here well we like having you here as well um in a year we're venezuela venezuela friday and slip that's kind of where we want to start well the point is who'd have thunk this wasn't necessarily on our list of things to watch in 2026, but yet here we are. And I think today people are saying this is going to take some time to work its way out. So maybe not so market moving and maybe not so impactful on the energy sector yet.

2:32But I'm just curious, does this factor at all in? I think it's a good thing to be quite candid. I think you're going to see energy prices drop. I think you're going to see energy services company do better. If we can drop energy prices, you know it's going to affect inflation. So that'll bring inflation down a little bit. You know, West Texas Intermediate crude's at 57 bucks a barrel. I know, I was going to ask you, do you want the price to go down? Well, since I'm not in the only gas industry yet. A lot of your clients probably are. Well, some are. But, you know, if you're trading the energy, the service companies, you can do quite well this year, I think.

2:59So the reason I ask this, again, it's all supply and demand. That's what it comes down to. That's, you know, economics 101. But if we think about the glut of oil that exists right now, if we even have more coming online, then do we get to a point where oil could get so low that there would be no incentive for companies to do this exploration? I don't think we'll ever get to really to that point. But I think what he wanted to do is secure the pipeline that's coming in to us. And I also think he wanted to block China. I think most of this has to do with blocking China. Was China in the day before he took over, before he came in and got the dictator?

3:33Yeah. So I think some of this has more to do with China just as much as it does with oil and gas. You know, once again, you know, we're focused on the White House and things coming out from President Trump. Reuters is reporting that President Trump and advisors are discussing the purchase of Greenland. Again, this is coming from Reuters. Reuters reporter posting this on X, citing a senior U.S. official. Is it for sale, Carol? Well, ask Greenland and they would say no. But I'm just curious about how you are factoring in what might come from Washington. What matters, what doesn't. Because there are things that are said that ultimately, like look at tariffs, right?

4:12We started out one course, and it certainly changed very quickly in terms of how impactful it will be. But I'm just curious, how do you factor that in? Well, it is, you know, when you looked at Trump's first administration, the first four months where they were disturbing because the market was freaking everywhere. Nobody knew how to take this guy. But then you kind of calm down. You realize he says a lot of stuff. So you realize just let it go and see what actually happens. because he always starts way up here and then he comes way down. Like with tariffs, he started at 5 ,000 percent. Now he's down to 12 or something.

4:42And he's starting to work with people. So I think people just get numb to him. Do you take stuff like this, though, serious? Absolutely. Oh, with Greenland? To some degree because of rare earth. As you guys have been talking about this, we're getting additional information. And you're making a mark with your hands. Okay, it's up here. It's down here. Different extremes. Tell me where this extreme would be. U.S. military used to take Greenland, quote, always an option, according to Reuters. Where is that on your spectrum? It's really not. I think it's talk. Okay. I think it's talk. But you know what?

5:12If he did, I think, what, 60 ,000 people lived there? Yeah. I mean, we're talking a tiny town. The country's just a modest. But it's part of a sovereign. It is, yes. But there's, you know what? And part of NATO, too. Yes. So it would cause an issue. I mean, much. Yeah. He has to say the least. Well, in an environment where we look at President Putin of Russia and land grabs and say that that's not okay. It's not okay. And I'm not saying that he hasn't grabbed anything yet. Yeah. So let's just say talk is talk and cheap. You know, talk's cheap. Why does he do that, do you think? I think that's just the way he's always been as a negotiator.

5:47He starts at a bizarre price. Like if he wants to buy something, he starts at a bizarrely low price, and he works them down to a point that it's fair to him, and then he takes the deal. But that's his modus operandi. He's a dealmaker. So as investors, are you saying wait until the dust settles? Yeah. And, you know, it's like what happened with the tariffs. I mean, the market dropped like crazy. And then they came to find out a week later. He goes, oh, I can back off a lot. And the next thing, it shot back up. So I always want to ask you about the buy line, the HCM buy line. This is the proprietary model that you have that uses signals to tell you whether to buy, sell.

6:19Does it also say hold? Oh, yeah, absolutely. I think that's one of the key points is to keep you invested. Where is it right now? We're positive now. We had a good year last year. It was a little bit whipsaw-y when that April happened. And you'd see those big drops. It was a little bit whipsaw for us because it is a trend indicator. Yeah. And I want to stay with the trend as long as I can until the trend changes. Then I want to move my perspective. Did the trend lag as an indicator? Absolutely. Yeah. You're never going to call it top of the bar. So you get hurt a little bit. A little bit. You're going to get whipsawed.

6:44The buy line is 68-32. 32 % of the time it's not going to work, and you're going to be sort of neutral or even below it, maybe lose a little bit. But 68 % of the time it's going to work. So where is it right now? We're positive. Very positive. Yeah, we're 100 % invested, have been for months on end. I'm bullish into 2026. You know, we were talking about this, and I think I sent you guys some dialogues off. If January's up, there's a 73 % chance that 2026 will be positive. If the first five days are up and January's up, it's an 83 % probability 2026 will be positive. We've got two more days. That's exactly right.

7:17So let's cross our fingers. Does an election year or a midterm year matter? It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter at all. But let's look at this. The three of us are incredibly positive people, so we won't even talk about it if it's down. We're also realistic, though. But the truth is, I mean, the majority of the time, the market is up. It is. The vast majority of the time. Yeah. And even if you have a bad year, like let's say January is down and we have a sloppy year, that doesn't mean it's going to end up terrible. Yeah. It just means it's going to be a little bit more hard to navigate. Before we wrap 15 seconds here, is there any indication in terms of like the MAG-7, the big tech, the AI trade, any indications?

7:53I love it all. But I think this year, Carol, I think we're going to see this is going to be a technical trading market. In other words, you're going to see a lot of things that are moving that weren't moving. You know, I've talked about small cats for two years and been embarrassed because they haven't moved until recently, but they're starting to move. But you're also seeing other things do well, like basic materials. You're starting to see financials start to come alive. You'll have to come back because we'll talk and do some follow-up. Vance Howard.

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