The World Cup Keeps Getting Bigger

22:12So the big question and a lot of things investors are debating is how does retail ramp up buying to own 30 % of a$1.72 trillion company? Because 30 % of$75 billion is a big number, but it's still only$22 billion. That's trades like water and NVIDIA from a retail perspective. Yeah. There's one interesting dynamic, which I think tomorrow is going to be very interesting. So look at shares of Tesla tomorrow.

22:36Carol Massar:Okay. And the reason being is that if you're a retail investor that did not get an allocation. That's how you get into it. What choice do you face if your entire net wealth is tied up in Tesla shares that you've held because you believe in the story long term? What do you do? Do you sell to give yourself some money to do that? Or going into this, did you sell to? The big thing, though, is for a number of, just to clarify on some points, each platform, each e-broker is different. So some brokers, when you put in an order hypothetically for$100 ,000 of SpaceX shares, you either have to have that liquid or have assets pledged as collateral.

23:11So it's not necessarily like we're going to see in real time tomorrow, people selling to turn around and buy per se.

23:16Carol Massar:It's just kind of wild, right? And if you believe that these two companies are all going to end up being one at some point, like, yeah, that's all, again, where the time is. To be continued tomorrow, 1 p.m. with our special coverage. See, this is just the beginning. These guys will be here. All right. That is Ed Ludlow, Bloomberg Tech co-host, Bailey Lipschelts, Bloomberg News IPO reporter. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

23:41Support for the show comes from Public. Lately, it feels like there are two types of investing platforms. Some are traditional brokerages that haven't changed much in decades, and others feel less like investing and more like a game. Public is positioned differently. It's an investing platform for people who are serious about building their wealth. On Public, you can build a portfolio of stocks, options, bonds, crypto without all the bugs or the confetti. Retirement accounts, yep. High-yield cash, yes again. They even have direct indexing. Public has modern design, powerful tools, and customer support that actually helps.

24:16Go to public.com slash market and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash market. Ad paid for by Public Holdings. Brokered services by Public Investing, member FINRA SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, SEC Registered Advisor. Crypto services by ZeroHash. All investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosures at public.com slash disclosures. Hey everyone, it's Cal Penn. I'm the host of Earsay, the Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club. This week on the podcast, I'm sitting down with Ray Porter, the narrator of Andy Weir's audiobook Project Hail Mary, massive sci-fi adventure about survival and science and what happens when you wake up alone very far from earth.

25:04I really had to make a decision because I caught myself getting that frog in my throat and starting to get teary as I'm narrating some of these sections. And it's like, okay, yo, yo, yo, is this indulgent? And I really thought about it. I was like, no, at this point, it would kind of be betraying the trust the author and the listener have in telling this story if I don't go through it. But there's places in this book that deeply emotionally affected me, and I left it on the mic. That's great. Because it served the story. People will say like, oh my God, I cried at the end. It's like, yeah, dude, me too.

25:36Listen to Earsay, the Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts. Ask yourself, what are your best people spending their time on right now? Expense reports, receipt chasing, month-end close that takes weeks. You become what you spend on, and that's not what you're building toward. Brex is the intelligent finance platform that eliminates that work before it starts. AI agents that handle the manual stuff automatically, so your team can spend their time on what actually compounds. It's time to get Brex AF. Learn more at brex.com slash AF.

26:15Carol Massar:You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. Well, the European Central Bank, speaking of things going on, the ECB raising interest rates for the first time in almost three years. We've got the FOMC meeting next week with Kevin Warsh cheering for the first time. Meantime, ECB President Christine Lagarde warning inflation triggered by the Iran war is widening beyond just energy. Keep in mind, Europe definitely feeling the pain of two wars as the Russia-Ukraine war is now more than four years old and counting.

26:55Carol Massar:And, of course, you have the U.S. war in Iran. Even so, Europe seems to be shaking itself awake. Yeah, as the global order disintegrates and China dives deeper into Europe's traditional markets, EU leaders say the bloc needs bigger and everything to protect itself. Bigger banks, bigger tech firms, bigger defense contractors, bigger investments. Ahead of next week's G7 Leaders Summit, Bloomberg has been speaking to policymakers and investors about Europe's path ahead as new Bloomberg economics analysis underlines why major change is needed. And yet, can the bloc, Carol, really evolve? Yeah, it's a big question.

27:29Carol Massar:Our Brussels radio anchor Stephen Carroll, Bureau Chief Suzanne Lynch, and Editor Corey Bennett have been speaking to figures at the heart of Europe's political and financial decision-making. And Stephen joins us right now. He's co-host of Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, joining us from the Bloomberg News Brussels Bureau. He's also host of the Here's Why podcast. Stephen, so good to have you here with Tim and myself. First of all, tell us about this mission that you and our Bloomberg colleagues have been on and the questions specifically that you were trying to answer. Look, the question we're trying to answer is whether Europe's actually finally going to do something about its economic decline.

28:05The warnings have been around for years. Remember that big report from Mario Draghi, nearly two years old now, saying that it was existential for Europe that it made major reforms, integrated its markets more, ramped up investment massively to 1.2 trillion euros a year. And the sense that we've been getting from our reporters around the continent is there was a sense of a shift towards progress on this finally, and that perhaps we were moving because of the pressures that were coming on the EU from the United States. We know obviously the Trump administration has been particularly unfriendly to the European Union, but also the rising competition from China, questions around access to markets, putting pressure on manufacturers here, that perhaps things were starting to change.

28:49And we went looking for where those changes might come. And actually, although I know you'll think I'm crazy if I start talking about small details and European policy changes. There are signs out there, and they are small but significant, that things are really changing now. What are some of those signs that things are changing? Is it more than just Europe doing more of its own defence spending? What is it? Defence spending is a key one, and it's an interesting example for a model that could be used in other areas in the sorts of things that Mario Draghi wanted the European Union to spend more money on.

29:21But I will point to merger rules. This is an area the EU has had a huge influence globally over, reviewing mergers, antitrust law. And the EU said a couple of months ago they were going to start revising those merger rules. And we're already seeing signs of businesses taking notice of this. Deals that in the past you thought might be flagged by regulators. We had a big telecoms announcement in France in the past week. We had a big banking merger announcement in Italy in the past week as well. And these are the sorts of deals that, from a big picture point of view, you want bigger companies, more cross-border investment, bigger banks in particular to help for financing across the continent.

29:59These are the sorts of deals that could have been a concern to regulators in the past, but it seems that executives have decided it's worth going ahead because they are sensing a changing attitude. The other issue, and it's something that we've covered for a very long time here at Bloomberg, is questions around deeper capital markets in Europe, trying to encourage more of that cross-border investment. Europe's Six biggest economies have now said they're going to go ahead with this plan, even if they can't get an agreement at a 27 level. That's significant, too, because it's considered now to perhaps be a model as to how things get done in this moment.

30:31Look, you get a big group of countries together. They go ahead. The others can join if they want. But crucially, you will start to provide those deeper markets that will hopefully stimulate investment and help to turn around the economic fortunes as well.

30:44Carol Massar:You know, Stephen, to be fair, right, and I'll play as the EU figures its way forward and its position in the world, President Trump upended so many longstanding global relationships. Some say that was long overdue. Others say big mistake. These have been longtime allies. And it impacts not just geopolitics, but it impacts business. When it comes to the EU and the US relationship, you had a perfect voice to talk with. Tell us about your conversation and check in with the former EU commissioner for competition. Margaret Vesteyer is one of the EU policymakers who's really been at the forefront of some of the most controversial ends of EU policy competition all being one.

31:22She was also part of developing the new digital rulebook, which we know the Trump administration doesn't like either. She was in one of the top positions at the EU Commission until 2024. And I asked her about this question as to whether actually maybe Donald Trump had done the EU a favour by upending this relationship and spurring them into action. Let's take a listen to what she had to say. I wouldn't express it that way because, you know, I'm really sad about some of the very, very negative effects of the Trump presidency. Take the closure of USAID, the risk of offsetting a new AIDS epidemic.

31:57So I think one cannot see it like that. That being said, I think it was about time for Europe to realize we need to do better ourselves.

32:08Carol Massar:The European social contract is at stake here because many people feel that that social contract is not being upheld. So that's Margaret of Estar, formerly of the European Commission, really putting in perspective the influence that the degradation of the transatlantic relationship has had and how that has spurred, it appears, European leaders into more action on this fund, realising that they have to rely on themselves more because they can't rely on one of their most important traditional partners. And she actually pointed to Donald Trump's comments around wanting to annex Greenland earlier this year as being a moment that really seemed to spur a change in attitude in a sense that actually now Europe needs to tackle some of these long running underlying problems to be able to provide better protection for the social model, the wealthy influence that it's built up over time.

32:59Now, I don't want to get you too excited about this because things happen slowly in Europe at a European Union level. We're in the middle of the discussions on the next European budget, for example. That could be another area where there could be big changes. The ambitions that we've had an update on today don't look hugely different. So that might not be the level of excitement that we want. But the conversations are happening and there is a sense that we're moving towards something that will result in more European integration and more as a result. Europeans' influence on the world. Bloomberg Economics was looking at the potential consequences of this as well.

33:34They say the path is going to be divergent even further. The European Union will fall further behind the US economically if there isn't big changes made. But if there are, that will arrest, first of all, the decline and actually could see the two economies converge as well. None of that, of course, mentioning AI, which could change everything. Well, let's talk a little bit about technology and also geopolitics here beyond the United States. You did mention China is another factor that is driving this. And if we think about it from the perspective of EVs, for example, you're not going to find Chinese EVs here in the United States.

34:07Not the case for mainland Europe, where you could see, I don't know, Norway, Italy, Spain. In France, you can see Chinese EVs on the roads there. How much of this is about China? And what is it about China specifically that has the bloc concerned? So there's a couple of issues here. One is that China's moving in on Europe's traditional industries of strength. And the motor industry is a perfect example of that. It's true. I see BYD cars around Brussels. You know, they're more present here in many parts of the continent as well. And it's a question of the EU having to, you know, make this decision about whether or not there are industries that it's going to protect and support.

34:48Car making, we know, is extremely politically important in Germany, for example. So will that be an obstacle to try and support those industries rather than necessary or to protect from Chinese imports in that area? The other question is also access to the Chinese market, because it's an important export market for a lot of big European companies as well. And they fear more barriers being put up, which could cut off that very lucrative market for them at a time when obviously now we're going to have trade tariffs with the US as well. So some of those big export markets could actually be closed off to European exporters as well.

35:25And that's another way that we could see industries hurt by this complete shifting in the global order that we've seen.

35:31Carol Massar:Speaking about the global order and the shifting, I keep thinking about the European Union. We've had a lot of stories, I'm sure Stephen, you know, on the Bloomberg about the UK. I'm looking at one that was done on June 9th. So just this week, how the UK's options for rebuilding ties with Europe stack up, this possibility of the UK coming back. But I do think about the composition of the European Union. Some have questioned some of the countries and the entities that are part of that institution. How is that going to move forward? How important is that in terms of who's in, who's out matters in terms of its place in the global world?

36:08Well, that's a really important question, too, because, of course, we have a whole range of countries who've been lining up for years to try and join the European Union across the Western Balkans, for example. But also there's been such a renewed focus on Ukraine's potential membership of the European Union too. And a lot of these questions are tied up with the fact that the way the EU works right now is already so cumbersome. And part of the fear of admitting new countries is you actually make the situation even more complex. And as you add divergent political views from different domains as well, is that there will be a need to give up, for example, the veto that exists in some areas of the European Union.

36:44Nobody's willing to have those sort of conversations because it's such a laborious and time-consuming process when there are other big crises that need to be addressed now. I do think it's important to talk about what happened with Brexit, though, because obviously the UK leaving was a blow for the EU. They took a voice out of conversations on things like capital markets, for example, where Britain would have had a lot of influence, and the countries who would like to see greater integration or for in some cases might want to protect part of their own financial industries as well, have lost perhaps an ally around the table there too.

37:17So those alliances have shifted over the past 10 years. New bridges had to be built between countries too. I don't think the UK is going to be rejoining the EU anytime soon, but closer ties does seem to be on the cards.

37:29Carol Massar:Hey, great to check in with you. I know it's later there, but so appreciate it. Of course, Stephen Carroll, co-host of Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, joining us from the Bloomberg News Brussels Bureau. He's also host of the Here's Why podcast. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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39:02Hey, everyone. It's Cal Penn. I'm the host of Earsay, the Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club. This week on the podcast, I am sitting down with Ray Porter, the narrator of Andy Weir's audiobook Project Hail Mary, massive sci-fi adventure about survival and science and what happens when you wake up alone very far from Earth. I really had to make a decision because I caught myself getting that frog in my throat and starting to get teary as I'm narrating some of these sections. And it's like, OK, yo, yo, yo, is this indulgent? And I really thought about it. I was like, no, at this point, it would kind of be betraying the trust the author and the listener have in telling this story if I don't go through it.

39:45But there's places in this book that deeply emotionally affected me. And I left it on the mic. That's great. Because it served the story. People will say like, oh my God, I cried at the end. It's like, yeah, dude, me too. Listen to Earsay, the Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts. If your best finance people are doing expense reports, chasing receipts, or spending time on month-end clothes, it's time to get Brex AF, a Gentic finance that eliminates that work before it starts. Learn more at brex.com slash AF.

40:22Carol Massar:You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. I'm glued to the terminal. All things SpaceX. The latest, the company raising$75 billion in the IPO. Not a surprise to anyone who's been paying attention. 555.6 million shares at$135 each. It's now official. It's according to a statement on its website. Here's some context, Carol. SpaceX's IPO is more than double the size of Saudi Aramco's$29.4 billion listing back in 2019. I'm old enough to remember when Alibaba was a big IPO.

41:05Carol Massar:Yeah, I mean, I remember when we were talking down and counting down to Saudi Aramco's listing. These were massive, massive issues and something that the market really took notice of. I've got to say, it's safe to say that we're asking everyone about this moment in time, including our next guest. With us is Dr. Sylvia Kwan. She's CEO of the investment advisory firm Elvest. They've got about$1.1 billion in assets under management. She joins us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Welcome, welcome. Nice to have you here. Great to be here. How do you think about someone who has watched the markets?

41:37Carol Massar:Think about this moment in time, the SpaceX IPO. It is a historical moment. It's terribly exciting, regardless of what you think the valuation of SpaceX is. it's just very exciting that this is actually happening. Now at Ellevest, we're focused on long-term investment management and portfolios, and we're very focused on diversification. We don't pick individual stocks. And so the IPO is not something that we are specifically placing in client portfolios. You said it's exciting. You're not specifically placing it in client portfolios at this moment. Yet if you are an investor in the entire stock market, then you're going to own SpaceX no matter what, after what could be maybe even five or six days, depending on how long it takes to be added to some of the indexes.

42:23A good thing? I don't think it's either a good thing necessarily or a bad thing because, you know, it's going to be such a small part of the overall portfolio. So it's not like it's going to dominate somebody's portfolio. If they already own some of these ETFs and index funds that SpaceX is going to be added to, they are going to own it, but it's at a very, very small fraction. Are you hearing from clientele right now? We spoke to Wealthfront CEO David Fortunato yesterday who said that last week the company put out a blog post about SpaceX's IPO and that within seconds they had customers getting in touch on both sides being like, I want in on this or I want nothing to do with this.

43:02I don't want this anywhere near my portfolio. And he said, we do direct indexing so we can control, even if somebody buys an index, we can control what they actually buy. Are you hearing from clients? We are hearing the same thing. Really? There are some that are very excited about the prospects and they want in. And we said, great, you can go ahead and do that and try to get some shares. And there are some that say, I want to avoid this at all costs. And we also have direct intimacy and allow them to take that out of the universe of possibilities.

43:30Carol Massar:I think it's just interesting. If it was anybody other than Elon, would we be having these conversations? Probably not. Yeah. Yeah, it's very bifurcating. Yeah, it's really kind of fascinating to watch this. And it's something that, listen, we're going to have the first day of trading, we've had this lead up, but it's also then watching what we get in terms of trading in the following months, right, after the IPO, and what we hear from the company about the actual fundamentals that matter. That's right. And so the way I think about it, because this is such an exciting event, it's a huge story.

44:03There are a lot of people who are excited about the story and not really thinking about the fundamentals. But even if you are thinking about the fundamentals and you believe, hey, the growth prospects of SpaceX are just incredible, you don't have to get in on day one or even day two. If this is a long-term investment and you think, hey, this is actually going to be amazing for the next 10 years, you've got a lot of time. I mean, think about, again, this is at this point ancient history. But if we go back to the company now known as Meta Platforms, but it was Facebook, that was essentially a disastrous IPO back in 2012.

44:40Carol Massar:I remember that day actually really well. Yeah, I do too. Because I think we were shocked, right? And everybody's like, how did this get so messed up? Right. Yeah, was that? That was 2012. Yeah. So, but if you bought in then, even if you weathered the early tumult, you're a pretty happy camper right now. That's right. Because that was trading, what, you know, basically$35 a share and now$568 a share. Sylvia, one thing I wonder about, like, you know, you guys are dealing with wealth transfer, a lot more money coming into the hands of women, people thinking about longer term, people are living longer, how they need to make sure that they've got money to live on.

45:18Carol Massar:essentially. But what are the long or what are the narratives that are out there right now, whether it's nearshoring, unshoring, whether it's all of a sudden we're talking more about oil and kind of raw commodities, if you will, in terms of an investment play, the AI play, we see the money, we see the continuing demand, certainly when it comes to the semiconductor space. But there are some who are questioning what the fallout is. Is there an overbuild? Will we need it? You know, There's lots of questions out there. What are the positioning? I'm also curious about alternatives. Is there still the wish to be in private credit or private equity?

45:57Carol Massar:Where is it that they want to be? So at Ellevest, we still believe that alternatives has a significant part to play in a client's portfolio. But not all alternatives are created equal. And so we're really looking for those private investments that have that low correlation to public markets. because that's really what is going to get the diversification for your portfolio. So we're very, as you might know, we're also 100 % dedicated to impact investing and not only generating returns but also impact. So oil and gas is not typically something that we find in client portfolios. We'll see more other infrastructure, things like renewable energy and other real assets.

46:40Are there pre, again, going back to how we're thinking about the companies that are getting all the attention right now, Carol asked about alternative investments. Do you consider pre-IPO shares of private companies right now, like an Anthropic or like an OpenAI, or secondaries as part of an alternative asset portfolio? They absolutely can be. We do have venture as part of our portfolios. And to the extent there are AI companies and other companies, you know, with technology innovations, that is definitely part of it. Is there tension with ESG or impact investing with those companies just because of the environmental impact and how we're thinking about power?

47:28There can be. And really, when you talk about values aligned, it's really a personal question. Right. And so somebody who's really focused on the environment will have a different portfolio than somebody who's really focused on, you know, economic parity or something like that. So it's really a personal kind of thing. And that's where at LOS we're really trying to craft something that is specific to that individual.

47:52Carol Massar:You know, there used to be a moment in time, and it's interesting with the SpaceX IPO, I think about, you know, Elon Musk and his play on solar, right, and renewables. Like, it's just kind of interesting, the different parts of our world that he touches. Having said that, I haven't looked at the return. Let me just pull up the Invesco Solar ETF, like what we have seen in terms of the trade. Like, are there returns there? Because I have noticed, too, and I feel like, you know, Tim, we've had guests on where people have said, listen, people are still investing in renewals. The move is still on. We're just not talking about it.

48:24Carol Massar:Is that true? I think that is true. And when you think about the energy that is required for all of this AI, it needs all forms of energy. in order to meet this kind of demand. So I just don't think, I think - The solar ETF is up 27 % year to date. That's a surprise to me. Okay, anyway, forgive me, I interrupted. Oh, no worries. You know, I think solar and other kind of green energy has kind of gotten removed from some of the vocabulary. It's not in vogue anymore, but it is still something that our clients care about and that we care about. And that I think that demand will continue to, in the coming years, it'll continue to grow.

49:06Are you surprised by that? No, I mean, one thing I am surprised about is the way that if we think about impact investing and I use the terms ESG to be fair. But if we were talking to you five years ago, like that's probably how we would have led the interview. But people aren't talking about their values when it comes to investing right now. And our prediction at the time was like it's all well and good in an up market and one where, you know, you can be picking pick and choose. But I wonder right now how much of it has to do with just a handful of companies that are driving so much performance versus just a way, a change in tone in the way that the environment is politically right now.

49:48What is it? I think it's the latter. You do? I think its popularity has waned. It's not popular to talk about it. we have noticed some of the fund managers that we work with that are impact managers having to change their language a bit we've noticed that too yeah but they've told us they've told us that they're changing their language but they're not necessarily changing what they're doing they're just changing the way they communicate about it exactly that's exactly right the strategy is the same the impact is the same but they need to change their language especially when it comes to institutions but you're still seeing the demand come from your clientele for that type of messaging or at least that type of value space investing.

50:28Absolutely. We're seeing that amongst not only women, but younger generations. And in fact, we have been talking to some of the beneficiaries of AI, whether it's employees and things like that, that are coming. And it's interesting because we are hearing that they're coming into this great wealth that they never expected. And they're really thinking about it like intentionally, how do I want to invest this wealth and use this wealth? And so we've been talking about sort of like, oh, now that I've had this wealth, it's not just about generating more wealth. It's about intentionally doing something good with that wealth.

51:07You remind me of Daniela Amadei's comments at Bloomberg Technology last week talking to our own Shireen Ghafari about how she's committed to giving away 80 % of her net worth to charity. She's one of the co-founders of Anthropic.

51:19Carol Massar:Yeah, exactly. It's certainly guiding how she does things in a big way. Come back soon. Thank you. We really appreciate it. Thanks for having me. Dr. Sylvia Kwan, CEO of the investment advisory firm L-A-Vest, joining us. $1.1 billion in AUM, joining us right here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. This is the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast. Available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

52:09Ask yourself, what are your best people spending their time on right now? Expense reports, receipt chasing, month-end close that takes weeks. You become what you spend on, and that's not what you're building toward. Brex is the intelligent finance platform that eliminates that work before it starts. AI agents that handle the manual stuff automatically, so your team can spend their time on what actually compounds. It's time to get Brex AF. Learn more at brex.com slash AF. Hey everyone, it's Cal Penn. I'm inviting you to join the best sounding book club you've ever heard with my podcast, Earsay, the Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club.

52:50Every episode, I nerd out with amazing guests and dive into the best new audiobooks available on Audible. It's the book club for your ears. Listen to Earsay, the Audible and iHeart Audiobook Club on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.

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