Trump Aims to Seal Iran Deal, Says Truce Extension Unlikely

21:59Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130.

22:03Carol Massar:I want to just pull up shares of Marvell Technologies because that stock has been on a bit of a rally today. Yeah, it's pretty much near its highs of the session, up about 6.4%. This is after the information reported that Google is in discussions with this semiconductor company to develop two new chips to run AI models more efficiently. And then we have our own Dina Bass of Bloomberg reporting out that in a matter of months, Google's AI chips have become, Tim, one of the hottest commodities in the tech sector. Yeah, this leading artificial intelligence developer, some of the firm's biggest rivals are actually stocking up on them.

22:37I was also just looking at shares of Marvell this year. Yeah, what are they doing? Up 75%.

22:41Carol Massar:Not too shabby, right? Yeah, not too shabby. A little outperformance there. I think that's fair to say. Let's get more, though. We're interested in what Google is up to and what they've been doing. It's not just recently, but for a while now. With us is Dina Bass, Bloomberg News AI infrastructure reporter. She joins us from Seattle. Hey, Dina, great reporting. interesting story. It does feel like, though, increasingly we're in this world where these big tech giants want to make and are making their own semiconductors. Tell us about Google, because they've been, what, designing chips for over a decade.

23:12Carol Massar:But what's interesting about what they are doing right now? So, first of all, you've mentioned in a matter of months, let's talk about what's likely to happen in a matter of days. Later this week is Google's next conference in Las Vegas. And as we reported in our story, they are likely to announce at that conference that they are releasing a version of their trip, a TPU, for inferencing workloads. So inferencing is when you've already got an AI model that's trained and you need to run it. You need to enable it to answer people's questions quickly. So we're reporting they're probably going to announce a TPU for inferencing.

23:51And that would sort of, you know, as you mentioned, individual companies doing things, you know, some of what's gone on in the last couple of months also is this focus on, you know, low latency or very fast inferencing. So if we're getting into a world where people are looking at agents and things that need to be more conversational, you want to be able to answer those queries quickly. And so last month we had NVIDIA, which is obviously the giant, the dominant player, releasing a fast inference chip based on the technology they acquired from McGraw. I know, you know, Cerebris just filed their IPO.

24:27They're also in this fast inferencing space. And so now we're expecting that Google is going to get more fully into that space with a chip that's specific for that task. Whereas up until now, as NVIDIA had in the past, Google has been, you know, using one set of TPU model for both training and inferencing. So that's what we're expecting, you know, later this week. Google's chief scientist, Jeff Dean, you know, told me in an interview, look, you know, there's all this demand growing for fast inferencing. And he said, quote, it now becomes sensible to specialized chips more for training or more for inference workloads.

25:03You know, that said, the head of their chip division, Amin Vedat, declined to say specifically what they're going to do later this week. But, you know, he did say that more will be shared, you know, quote, in the relatively near future. OK, so before we get to the relatively near future, we're here in the now and we have what you've reported, which is just absolutely amazing. And I'm curious about NVIDIA and the competition that this could or potentially would pose to NVIDIA, which, as you mentioned and we all know, is the market leader when it comes to this stuff. So I think you have to remember that it's not just that NVIDIA is the market leader.

25:37Everyone uses NVIDIA. That everyone includes Google. You know, Google's latest Gemini model, however, which has been very well reviewed and very successful, was trained on TPU and uses TPU for inference. Now, last week, there was a podcast with NVIDIA CEO Jensen Wong and Dorkesh Patel in which Jensen talked about the TPU threat and said, look, the growth in TPU is all anthropic, which is a huge, obviously, huge Google TPU customer. But, you know, Jensen's argument was, look, this is not a phenomenon. It's a one-off customer. You know, I spoke to Damasco, Google DeepMind CEO, and, you know, he pushed back on that.

26:18He said a lot of customers do want to do what Google does, which is use both GPU and TPU. And in fact, the problem for Google is that they don't quite have enough supply to meet that. We talk in the story about some other customers, about Meta, about Citadel Securities. But Demis' comment is that they don't have enough supply to meet all the interests. And so for now, at least, they're prioritizing the really high end, you know, frontier model teams who he said really are, you know, best able, best skilled to take advantage of the, you know, the advantages that TPU brings. And then, you know, we talked a lot about what those advantages are.

26:54I think from Google's point of view, what helps them is the fact that they co-design the TPU chips with both the hardware team and the folks at Google who work on those leading AI models. And that gives them a view into what you need to successfully, you know, design a chip that trains and inferences great models. It also helps them see problems more quickly. You know, they argued to me.

27:20Carol Massar:Does NVIDIA need to be worried here, Dina? NVIDIA is still the dominant player. You know, everyone that I talk to expects them to be the dominant player for the foreseeable future. I don't know that it's I think there's a different metric of success for for Google TPU and NVIDIA. NVIDIA success looks like continuing to dominate the market, starting to pick up some of these newer growing workloads in a significant way, such as the fast inference. TPU is coming from a place of being so much smaller in terms of share. It's really more a question of, you know, can they pick up some share? But also, even more than that, they have to decide what they want to do and what they want to be.

28:07NVIDIA sells chips for companies to use in their own data centers in whatever way that they want. Google has thus far almost exclusively focused on giving you access to TPUs through their own cloud. Now, they're starting to experiment with some other models. You know, Anthropic, for example, has been able to, you know, do with Google some experiments where they're running TPUs for Anthropic in data centers that Anthropic controls rather than through Google Cloud. But Google has to figure out, do they want to be a chip seller like NVIDIA that's not tied to their cloud? And then also with that limited supply, how do they allocate between customers who want a certain amount and not everyone can get what they want, as well as all of the Google workloads that are using the TPUs?

28:51and, you know, including Gemini, including Google search. You know, that's also a question. They sort of have to figure out where they want the business to go. It's not quite the same thing as NVIDIA. Why? And just we only have about 30 seconds left, Dina, but why sort of this this identity question? Like, why wouldn't Google try to do both things really well? I think it's just a question of where they want to go and where they want to invest. NVIDIA is, you know, a chip company that also does some AI models and they do some some of the new ideas ai models are increasingly excellent they're very open source focused but they're a chip company coming at that space google is a company in a lot of different areas including you know cloud and search and ai models before they're a chip company i think they have to figure out how what the chip portion uh you know where that fits in and how it helps them

29:40Carol Massar:sounds like tbd and let's see what we get out of the internet what are you just real quickly uh 10 seconds. The announcement. So just the detail, the devil in the details or what? I think we'll have to see what they say and when they're available. And, you know, again, this is, you know, next starts on Wednesday. So keep your eyes peeled for what they say. We certainly will. And we'll be looking out for your reporting as well. Dina Bash, she's Bloomberg News AI infrastructure reporter joining us from Seattle. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.

30:14Support for the show comes from Public. Public is an investing platform that offers access to stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. And they've also integrated AI with tools that can assist investors in building customized portfolios. One of these tools is called Generated Assets. It allows you to turn your ideas into investable indexes. So let's say you're interested in something specific like biotech companies with high R &D spend, small cap stocks with improving operating margins, or the S &P 500 minus high debt companies. Chances are there isn't an ETF that fits your exact criteria. But on public, you just type in a prompt and their AI screens thousands of stocks and builds a one of a kind index.

30:55You can even backtest it against the S &P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Go to public.com slash market and earn an uncapped 1 % bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com slash market. And paid for by Public Holdings. Brokered services by Public Investing, member FINRA SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, SEC Registered Advisor. Crypto services by ZeroHash. Sample prompts are for illustrative purposes only, not investment advice. All investing involves risk of loss. See complete disclosures at public.com slash disclosures. Deadlines move. Plans change. and sometimes opportunities pop up out of nowhere.

31:32When you need branded gear fast, 4imprint is ready to deliver. 4imprint offers hundreds of promotional products in their 24-hour category. Everything from custom apparel, bags, and drinkware to writing tools, trade show staples, and high-tech gear. At 4imprint, they're focused on getting the details right, printing your logo with precision, packing your order with care, and shipping it out fast. And it's backed by their 360-degree guarantee. That's 4imprint's promise your order will show up right on time, just the way you planned it. That's what it means to be 4imprint certain. So, if you're prepping for a last-minute event or jumping on a big opportunity, you don't have to settle or scramble.

32:12With 4imprint, fast, reliable service and peace of mind are built right in. Check out their full 24-hour selection at 4imprint.com. 4imprint. 4certain. Travel smarter, not harder, at America's Best Value In by Sinesta. with convenient locations from coast to coast and value-packed comfort at every turn. It's a practical choice for road trips, quick getaways, and everyday travel that keeps things simple without sacrificing comfort. And when you're a Sonesta Travel Pass member, staying at America's Best Value In means earning points toward free nights, upgrades, and more every time you stay. Go to Sonesta.com to book your stay and unlock the best rates with Sonesta Travel Pass.

32:51Here today, roam tomorrow. Join now at Sonesta.com. Terms and conditions apply. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. Check out shares of Compass Pathways right now. ADRs, I should say, up more than 42%. They were up as much as 53 % earlier in the session. This after President Trump signed an executive order that directs the FDA to issue expedited review vouchers to psychedelics with a so-called breakthrough designation.

33:29It shortens the review time to one to two months from six to 10 months. Here's President Trump on Saturday in the Oval Office. Today, I'm pleased to announce historic reforms to dramatically accelerate access to new medical research and treatments based on psychedelic drugs. In many cases, these experimental treatments have shown life-changing potential for those suffering from severe mental illness and depression, including our cherished veterans. Our veterans have a tremendous hard time. If these turn out to be as good as people are saying, it's going to have a tremendous impact on this country and other countries, too.

34:09There you have it, President Trump on Saturday in the Oval Office. Compass Pathway is not the only stock that's moving on this. Look at this. You've got a Ty Beckley up more than 22%. GH Research up 17%. Defining Therapeutics up more than 2 % right now. I want to go to Kabir.

34:28Carol Massar:If you look at the advisor share of psychedelics, ETF2, that too, which pulls in all of them up. I'm looking at it right now. Up about 10%. Talia pulled it up. Yeah, nice job. 10.6%. You should do that as one of your gainers today. In fact, it is. Okay. Kabir Nath is watching this closely. CEO of Compass Pathways. He joins us from London. Kabir, welcome back. It's good to have you back on the program with us. I want to talk about this executive order and what it means for Compass Pathways. First, you, though, are using synthetic psilocybin for treatment-resistant depression, TRD. I just want you to remind everybody on where you are in terms of clinical trials, where you are with exactly what you're treating, availability, and that sort of thing right now.

35:11And then we'll talk about the EO. No, thanks very much. and it's a great pleasure to be back here with you both. So we are studying synthetic proprietary form of psilocybin, COMF360, in treatment-resistant depression. That's depression that does not respond to at least two drugs. That affects 4 million people in the United States, and these are people who have had no real treatment options until relatively recently. We're also studying it in PTSD, which affects more than 13 million people. A couple of months ago, we put out the results from our late-stage studies, our two late-stage studies, which showed both of those studies that for a significant percentage of patients, there was a clinically meaningful response in terms of their symptoms of depression based on just one or two administrations of Comp360.

36:06So we're redefining what rapidity and durability can look like with this medicine. We have discussed those findings with the FDA, and we're engaged on working with them so that as we generate more data, we can submit it to them for that review. So that process is already well underway with a view to potentially completing that regulatory submission later this year.

36:32Carol Massar:So, Kabir, one thing I want to go back to what you said, significant results. What does that mean, significant, as a result of the studies? And is it lasting? Is it something that once this is done, I hate to say a person's cured, but I would like to say a person's cured, that they will have a different health trajectory going forward. So, can you just address those two? Absolutely. So, what we showed in one of the studies was that a quarter of all patients had a real meaningful reduction in their symptoms from just one administration. In the second study, that goes to 40%. And to your point on durability, what we're showing is that from just one or two administrations, one or two sessions with psilocybin, that can last out to six months.

37:20So while this would not be characterized as a cure, what that suggests is for many patients, maybe just two or three or four sessions a year can keep them well over the long term. And again, compared to anything that's available for this population, and again, these are patients with this chronic recurrent depression, people who have typically been failed by multiple medicines over the course of their illness, this truly is transformational and game-changing. And look, I'd also remind people that, you know, when we think about treatments such as this for anything, whether we're talking about GLP ones, you know, it's not like you take one shot and you don't have to take any more again.

38:02Or, and one doctor told me with regard to, uh, comparing GLP ones to like exercise, for example, you know, to stay fit, you have to keep going to the gym over and over again. So, you know, you can think about treatment like that.

38:15Carol Massar:And listen, I do think about this could be, or, cause I think we all know people who have either been in a tough way and numerous medications just don't do it. And so if you can actually help somebody live a more normal or a normal and healthy life and feel good, it's a game changer for them. So let's go to the executive order. I believe on the executive order, you said that Saturday's order was a quote, important step forward in accelerating access without compromising rigorous science. So tell us a bit more about this executive order, what it really means? What will you do differently or what can you do differently now because of it?

38:57Yeah, well, first, we welcome the executive order because it's really grounded in two fundamental principles. First, that patients urgently need new treatments and they've waited too long for that. But second, that it must be informed by rigorous science. So the focus on FDA approved medicines, doing the studies to the right level and so on. So we welcome the executive order. What it talked to was some potential regulatory flexibility around the FDA moving perhaps faster. And there's talk of certain vouchers being given out. We don't yet know who may receive those, but that's one element. And second, these medicines today are illegal.

39:37So until and unless they receive approval, they are not able to be made available. There is the DEA needs to change that status and executive order accelerates the process of that. So taken together, this is really about first those medicines like ours that are very late in development, potentially getting to patients significantly sooner, but it also encompasses another and other executive, another, other actions that potentially make it easier to research these medicines, which today is complicated and takes time and a lot of money because of some of the restrictions that have been around them, but also directs a number of agencies within the government to work together to really build the implementation, the infrastructure, and to accelerate the potential for psychedelics to get to patients across the spectrum of serious mental illnesses.

40:31And I would assume... So together we...

40:33Carol Massar:Yeah, no, forgive me, forgive me. No, I was just thinking, though, as you were saying that, you know, expediting everything, And that includes, I was thinking, Tim, coverage by health care as well. Well, that's certainly, yeah. Part of this, a big part of it. Well, so answer that and go there. Go there for us. What it means for this to be expedited, what the next step of actually getting this covered by insurance, at least here in the United States, would be. What's the outlook for that? So assuming an FDA approval, so if we are approved for COM 360, then we believe that data we've generated showing the efficacy and the safety.

41:09This is well-tolerated, generally safe. First, we need that to get an FDA approval. And then we will take that data, that profile, and work with commercial insurers, government pairs as well. And we're confident in the strength of that data, particularly relative to anything that's available for patients with this chronic refractory depression today. And we're confident in delivering that value through insurance to patients. Okay. We'll have to wait on that one. You know, there are a lot of steps before that, that actually happens, but before you get there, and because you are a publicly traded company, there are a lot of companies that are working on using psychedelics to treat treatment resistant depression.

41:53Where do you think about differentiation and like, what's your biggest competitive advantage to other companies that are working on this? First, we are significantly ahead of other companies. So I think it's important to say that we have the potential, if approved, to be the first in it. But again, psychedelics are very different. So there are a number of dimensions of difference around the different modalities. There is the nature of the experience. Psilocybin is an experience. Typically, a patient will be wearing eye shades with music playing in a relaxed environment exactly as we have used in our clinical trials, it's a very inner directed experience.

42:34It's an experience where the patient is working through the acute psychedelic experience, allows them to work through their sense of self, their sense of self in relation to their symptoms. That's a very different experience from some other psychedelics. And so those differences in terms of the experience, the nature of the subjective experience, as well as perhaps duration and so on, those will actually all become apparent over time. We believe, again, with the rapidity, durability we've already shown, and nobody else has come close to doing the size of studies we've done yet to come to that, with that and the nature of the experience itself with psilocybin, that indeed will be differentiated and will be compelling both to providers and to patients.

43:19Carol Massar:So I am curious too, though, you know, we were thinking about this, Kamir, when we were thinking about talking with you, that if you go back to 2024, you did see the FDA reject an MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD from Lycos Therapeutics. They were a private company, I should point out. And they cited the quality of research and questions over the clinical trial design. Is there anything Compass is doing differently to ensure it won't meet the same fate? or do we need to be worried at all? We have conducted a very different program. So the Lycos program was designed many years ago in a different era.

43:58Compass has conducted this really to the highest standards of rigor. First in our two late-stage studies, we actually have over 800 patients represented. The studies themselves are very well aligned with the FDA's own draft guidance from three years ago for how they want to see studies designed. We have been incredibly rigorous about collecting all safety data, all elements of the subjective experience and how they impact on it. And also, we are not providing therapy alongside the drug. This is we're providing the medicine with support, with patient safety, absolutely the heart of it. So it's really a very, very different model from the MDA model, not only in terms of what it actually means for the patient, but also in the way that we have conducted the trials.

44:45So we are confident that based on the data we're seeing, based on the robustness of that data, we will have a very different experience with the regulatory process. Kabir, on that, and only 20, 30 seconds left on this to follow on Carol's question, what are the remaining clinical risks for psilocybin therapy in treatment-resistant depression? We will work with the agency. We are already working with the agency. We believe strongly that the data we've shown on efficacy and safety is compelling, but ultimately it is the FDA's decision as to whether to approve. We are excited about what the EO means for us.

45:21We're excited about the path forward and getting this to patients as soon as possible.

45:25Carol Massar:Bottom line, it's a big change, big move, that executive order. It is. Absolutely. It's a great move for the field. All right. Kabir, always appreciate the time that you've given us over the months, over the years, and really appreciate you coming on, especially as this is certainly a sector we're watching in today's trade. Kabir Nath, CEO of Compass Pathways, joining us here. And again, as we said, that stock is on a tear. We saw it. Let me just pull it up. It was up more than 50 % earlier. Yeah. And right now up 43%. Yeah. So quite a bump to the upside. And the stock is now positive for the year, which is interesting because it was under pressure.

46:02Carol Massar:It's now up about 38 % year to date. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

46:35Carol Massar:If you follow markets, you know the value of long-term thinking. You plan, you diversify, you prepare for volatility. But in life, even the best strategies can't prevent every bad day. A fire, a loss, a disruption that demands immediate attention. When that happens, what matters isn't just what you planned, it's who shows up. That's where Cincinnati Insurance comes in. For more than 75 years, they've helped individuals and businesses navigate life's toughest moments with care, expertise, and personal attention. Together with independent agents, Cincinnati Insurance focuses on relationships, not transactions.

47:13Carol Massar:Their approach is grounded in experience, follow-through, and trust built over time. Bad days happen, and when they do, you deserve an insurance partner who understands risk, respects what you've built, and is ready to help you move forward. The Cincinnati Insurance Companies. Let them make your bad day better. Find an independent agent at c-i-n-f-i-n dot com.

47:56I love you. It says I appreciate you. It says I see you. Find the perfect Mother's Day gift at your local Pandora store or online at pandora.net.

48:06Carol Massar:Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze. Bahamar, located in Nassau, Bahamas, offers your choice of three luxury hotels, the richly refined Rosewood, the playfully hip SLS and the stylishly modern Grand Hyatt. With over 45 restaurants, bars, and lounges, Baja Mar serves up delicious dining from world-renowned chefs like Daniel Bouloud and Marcus Samuelson, nightlife venues like the new Jean Batiste Jazz Club, and the Caribbean's most luxurious casino. At Baja Mar, you'll find every pleasure under the sun and one-of-a-kind experiences for the entire family, like Baja Bay, our 15-acre lush tropical water park, interactive wildlife life experiences, including our daily flamingo parade, world-class golf, tennis, spa, and so much more.

48:56Visit Bahamar.com today and discover a vacation destination where memories are made for a lifetime. Bahamar, life spectacular.