Trump Calls on Allies to Seize Hormuz as Frustration Mounts

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1:37Carol Massar:Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily. Reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead. With insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenevek on Bloomberg Radio. Hey, when you want to speak to President Trump, some might say you go on networks that the president is believed to watch a lot. Reminds me of about a year ago. Yeah. Jamie Dimon did that interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business just around the tariff time.

2:24That's right. trying to get a message to the president.

2:26Carol Massar:Yeah, and I don't know. Maybe that happened again today. And maybe that was what was behind what JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon had to say. Obviously, very closely watched individual on Wall Street. We know this. And here's what he said earlier today on Fox. Well, look, some markets are unpredictable. And it's hard for me to tell you exactly what. But I think they're just looking at, is there a chance something can go wrong? Now, we should all hope nothing goes wrong. We should all hope that these bad people are, you know, that we win this thing and clean up the straits and that Iran is no longer a threat to everybody.

2:58But the markets will be concerned until it's over.

3:02Carol Massar:Yep. And the read on the markets right now feels like, well, maybe we are closer to it being over. But who says? We've got to watch. Devil's in the details, as we said. That, of course, Jamie Dimon, CEO of Morgan, JPMorgan Chase, earlier today on Fox News. Well, an update on what our team is hearing and what the White House is doing when it comes to the U.S. war in Iran, trying to gather the war with the global economy. I want to bring in Bloomberg Economics Chief Geoeconomics Analyst Jennifer Welch. She joins us from the Bloomberg News Washington, D.C. Bureau. Jenny, the Wall Street Journal did report late yesterday that President Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would push the war beyond his timeline of four to six weeks.

3:39He later told the New York Post the U.S. is not going to be there too much longer. And then we have the headlines coming from Iran as well. Is it indeed looking like from your perch that this war will soon be coming to an end? Well, I think it depends on how we define coming to an end. I think the unfortunate reality is that some of these statements, including from President Trump, are very similar to statements he was making just a few weeks ago when he said that the war was very complete and that it would end very soon. And yet we are still in a live and very intense conflict with more U.S. troops moving into the region and likely options for escalation on his desk.

4:19And I think when you look at the statements from Iran's president, well, first, I think it's important to note who they came from. They are not from the supreme leader himself. And ultimately, it will be up to him. And second, that there is a predominant focus on the first part of that message of Iran is ready to end the war, but less attention, I think, from markets on the second part, which is really important, which is if certain conditions are met. And those conditions are the same terms Iran laid out last week, at least one of which is going to be completely dead on arrival with the United States.

4:50Carol Massar:Jenny, you know, the other thing, you know, I'm just going to go back to Jamie Dimon earlier on Fox today, that the markets will be concerned until the war is over. I get it. We certainly see that play out in terms of headlines on market moves, generally speaking. But, you know, there's some debate about the economic impact of the war on the U.S. and really the global implications. Madame Christine Lagarde had some thoughts about that. when it came to some comments from the Treasury Secretary Scott Besson. But Diamond said, our economy is so big and complex and integrated, and it's doing well.

5:20Carol Massar:It's been doing well for years. It's prosperous. So this is not going to have an immediate, it's one effect. Is he right? Are you hearing more about the war and a longer term impact on the U.S. economy and the global economy for that matter? Well, certainly, as you're highlighting there, there are going to be different effects across the world. If you look at, for example, Asian economies that are far more dependent on the Middle East for their energy sources. They are already having to make major changes in the way that workplaces are operating, even government workers are operating in order to conserve energy.

5:54They are looking and scrambling for resources elsewhere. The United States, as a net energy producer, is a little bit more cushioned from the blow. But I think certainly for people who are filling up their tanks at the pump right now and looking at much higher gas prices, there is already an immediate effect on household income, certainly. And the longer this war lasts, the more intense the implications are going to be for every economy, including the United States, but especially for economies around the world that are more dependent on sourcing energy, both gas and oil from the Middle East. Is there a floor, Jenny, to oil after this war wraps up, a floor that is higher than, you know,$60 to$65 a barrel that we saw before the war?

6:39I think a key consideration is going to be what happens in the Strait of Hermuz after the war ends, if it does formally end. Iran has now figured out that they have this major leverage over the Strait that they can exercise control over it at relatively low cost, and that's probably a card that they're going to seek to play. In fact, one of the key terms of their call for peace that they put out last week is recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hamuz. That's something the United States won't accept. It's something that probably many Gulf countries don't want to accept either. But if they were to try and make good on that threat and see it become the new normal even after the war ends, then I think the risk is you're either going to see persistent risk of disruption in the Strait of Hamuz if Iran seeks to leverage that card again, or they're going to try and impose some sort of toll or other fee on shippers in which case there'll be a question about what will the United States do to impose sanctions in response to that.

7:34Carol Massar:Yeah, so many. And we'll see if we get any further detail from President Trump when he's, I believe, holding an event at the White House at 5 o 'clock. And I think it's been open to press. So we'll see whether or not it's more tactical plays or something more definitive. But certainly we'll all be watching. Jenny, thank you as always. Jenny Welch, she's Bloomberg Economics Chief Geoeconomics Analyst right there in our D.C. Bureau. Well, let's stay on the economy. As Carol mentioned, Christine Lagarde challenging Treasury Secretary Scott Besant's optimism that the Iran war's economic fallout will be short lived.

8:04That's according to people familiar with the matter. Madame Lagarde telling Besant and other G7 officials, Carol, that the effects of the war would be felt for a long time because so much has already been destroyed.

8:15Carol Massar:Gotta say so much to talk about. Great to have back with us Peter Atwater. He is president of Financial Insights and adjunct lecturer of economics at the College of William and Mary, and he joins us from Williamsburg, Virginia. He's also the author of The Confidence Map, Charting a Path from Chaos to Clarity. It's a book that digs deep into decision-making. Peter, so good to have you back with us. It's been an interesting 2026, to say the least. Madame Lagarde is concerned about the global economy. Is she right about the economic fallout from the war in Iran, more likely to be felt longer than shorter, as U.S.

8:49Carol Massar:Treasury Secretary Scott Besant has indicated. What's your view on this? So, Carol, thanks again for having me. I think she's absolutely right. And I'm particularly concerned for those countries that have K-shaped economies that are even more distorted than the United States. What we know is that this is a crisis that is hitting those at the bottom disproportionately. Today, it can be felt in terms of energy. But we know that as energy prices rise, fertilizer prices go along with it, which means that food prices will be next. And one of the things that I pay very close attention to is the ability of those at the bottom to feed themselves.

9:32And we know that that's a growing issue. And I would hate to see a repeat of the Arab Spring.

9:39Carol Massar:you know what we're gonna talk food prices for stew leonard right yeah stew leonard's gonna be joining us in a few minutes and and what he's gonna talk to us about is what he's seeing at his grocery stores in the northeast of the united states and and i wonder peter how what we saw with the arab spring and a k-shaped economy in other countries how you think about that in the context of the u.s and the u.s is k-shaped economy and the fact that there are so many people in the united States who are struggling to get by? And what happens if we see prolonged higher energy prices for longer? Yeah, last November, Tim, the headlines were all about an affordability crisis.

10:17That crisis hasn't gone away. In fact, it's only gotten worse. And we've seen that in terms of individuals choosing because they can't afford health care to go without it. And now they're paying more at the pump. And there comes a point at which those at the bottom can't resolve the financial crisis that they face. You know, I think if the word of the year for 2025 was uncertainty, the word of the year for 2026 increasingly is powerlessness. And that's what those at the bottom are experiencing. And I don't think that those above have any clear sense of the challenge that those at the bottom now face in the United States.

11:01And I think that it's not about putting off a vacation, which some of the media suggests is the choice that's being made. No, it's a question of what can I afford? Can I afford to put food on the table tonight?

11:15Carol Massar:And can I just say that that was a post of yours on X that caught my attention. It was a headline as gas prices approach$4 a gallon. We're there right now. Americans rethink vacations. And you said specifically, and this is something, Tim, that really just caught my attention from Peter is that, you know, those on the arm of the case, you've really spent some time with those at the bottom. There's this real disconnect in people understanding everything. Why is bridging that disconnect so important? And not just important because of, in your view, of the society that we live in, but what's the economic argument, the economic case for understanding what happens in another person's shoes?

11:52Well, I think particularly in this economy, I don't think those above truly appreciate the dependence that they now have on those at the bottom. In an economy where everything is delivered, where everything is prepared by others, I think that we live in a Downton Abbey economy where those above don't see what's happening below. And they don't appreciate every element of their condition is dependent on a growing population that is invisible.

12:30Carol Massar:You know, it's interesting. And we've got a live chat and one of our producers, Cece, sharing with us some information. And it had to do with comments, Peter, that Jamie Dimon said earlier. And forgive us because I don't have the exact quote in front of me. But kind of this idea that, yep, gas prices are higher, but people still have jobs and they have money to spend. Is that, again, kind of, and forgive me, I don't have the exact quote. So I don't want to get anybody in trouble or get me in trouble because of Jamie Dimon. But I mean, that idea that, OK, you might be working, but it's just not enough.

13:02It's not enough. And appreciate, again, those at the bottom have no choice but to go to their job. There is no work from home alternative. And so the impact is immediate. And it's also visible. I can't emphasize enough the kryptonite like impact that rising gas prices have on those at the bottom that these big billboards that they pass every day has a really pernicious effect. Does it matter?

13:37Carol Massar:What if President Trump comes out at five o 'clock, Peter, and says, okay, the war's over? Does things change dramatically for people in America, especially those where those higher gas prices really do have an impact? So it may change in the short run to the extent that the markets now respond. I mean, And one of the things we've seen is almost a minute by minute correlation between market prices and prices at the pump. And so we could see some short term improvement. And that would certainly be wonderful to see. But the rat is now in the snake. And we haven't seen how that flows through, how higher oil prices and shortages of certain crude commodities now flows through the system.

14:27And as that happens, I think people will be surprised that the cost of living increases in temporary, but plays out over a much longer period of time. Yeah, barrel of Brent, still$104 a barrel. Crude, WTI crude, the US benchmark, still over$100 a barrel. Yet the S &P 500 up 2.5%, the NASDAQ composite up 3.4 % today. We're seeing really the risk on rally. Would you be buying US stocks right now? No. And the reason I wouldn't be buying is I don't think yet that investors have fully appreciated what I think is today the biggest consequence of the war. And that is the degree to which America will be blamed by others around the globe for a much higher cost of living.

15:14And I worry about the implications to American businesses that operate globally. I worry about what this means for American tourists. I think that we have unknowingly created a moment where there's a lot that America can and will be blamed for that is in no way reflected in current market prices.

15:41Carol Massar:It's a heavy Tuesday. Peter Atwater, thank you so much. Always, always really appreciate it. Peter Atwater, president of Financial Insights, adjunct lecturer of economics at the College of William & Mary. joining us from Williamsburg, Virginia. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

16:02Carol Massar:They told us to expect change. They warned us about the transition. But honestly, they forgot the best part. This is the chapter where we finally focus on us. Life MD delivers expert menopause and midlife care right from your home. From hormone health to holistic wellness, LifeMD helps you feel your best for the best years of your life. LifeMD, it's just getting good. Visit LifeMD.com slash goodlife. Support for the show comes from Public. Public is an investing platform that offers access to stocks, options, bonds, and crypto. And they've also integrated AI with tools that can assist investors in building customized portfolios.

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17:45Carol Massar:Being a small business owner isn't just a career. It's a calling. Chase for Business knows how much heart and effort go into building something of your own. That's why they make business growth their priority. The Chase team takes the time to understand your mission, where you are now, and where you want to go. Their broad range of solutions is designed with you in mind so you can bring your ideas to life. From banking to payment acceptance to credit cards, you can conveniently manage all your business finances all in one place with their digital tools. Looking for tips and advice? Their online resources are always available to give you the solutions you need to help your business thrive.

18:22Carol Massar:See how your business can get stronger and go farther with Chase for Business. Learn more at chase.com slash business. Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. Member FDIC. Copyright 2026. JPMorgan Chase and Company. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. Well, American astronauts last set foot on the moon back in 1972.

19:01Carol Massar:More than half a century later, NASA is preparing to take a big step forward and get back there. This is today's Bloomberg Big Take. It's narrated by Lauren Grush. She's Bloomberg News space reporter. And the first voice you're going to hear, though, is Artemis 2 pilot Victor Glover.

19:20I think our generation appreciates having a program that now we get a chance to take our own moonshots, what we call great things that humans accomplish. NASA's Artemis program is the space agency's ambitious mission to send humans back to the moon for the first time in more than half a century. The last time NASA sent humans to the moon, they were locked in a space race with the Soviet Union. This time, NASA wants to go back to the moon to stay, in order to learn how to live sustainably off of the lunar surface. Prior to Artemis II, NASA launched the very first major mission in the Artemis program, called Artemis I, which sent the Orion crew capsule around the moon to demonstrate that they could work without a crew on board.

20:03Now it's time to show that they can actually keep a crew alive while traveling to deep space. Our goal is get to the moon and get back. Four days out, four days back. We are going to do as much science as we can on the way. And on the far side of the moon, we're going to have maybe 45 minutes where we're in a loss of calm with Earth. And all we can do is just train our eyes on that moon's surface. The entire Artemis program has come under significant criticism for how much time it's taking to build and how much money it's costing the taxpayer. There's an estimate that between 2012 and 2025, the Artemis program has cost roughly$93 billion.

20:43Despite the criticism, it does benefit from strong congressional support. Many of the programs that are needed for Artemis are spread across the entire United States and provide a lot of jobs for constituents. While the Artemis II mission is coming up, Artemis 3, Artemis 4, Artemis 5 are all a bit of open question marks at the moment. There's development that needs to happen for hardware, notably with the landers that will actually take the humans to the surface of the moon. NASA is pulling out all the stops with its contractors to ensure that a landing occurs no later than 2028, but it remains to be seen if that date will actually be possible.

21:27Carol Massar:All right, of course, reporting this out for Bloomberg and who's narration you just heard, of course, is Lauren Grush. She is Bloomberg News Space Reporter. She joins us from NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida ahead of tomorrow's launch. Lauren, so good to have you here with Tim and myself here on Bloomberg. I've got to say my dad, a former engineer, very involved in the first space race to get a man on the moon back in the 1960s. Here we are more than 50 years afterwards, and we're going back. Why is everybody going back to the moon? Well, I think from one person that I spoke to, it's a place that we went and we've always wanted to go back ever since.