Trump Says Iran Reached Out on Deal, US Begins Hormuz Blockade

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1:17JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. Member FDIC. Copyright 2026. JPMorgan Chase and Company. Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenevek on Bloomberg Radio. We've got the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas. It has gone into effect. It could further inflame some tensions amid the global energy crisis.

2:05Meantime, the U.S. has said neutral ships will be subject to interception, diversion, and capture. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, slumping back down again today, reversing some move-up, a jump that we actually saw yesterday. And then we've heard from Iran, too. Yeah, it seems like talks are advancing. The ceasefire are mostly holding in. And at least that's what the market is buying with the S &P rallying after Trump spoke and then oil pulling back like we've been talking about. Yeah, markets seem to be taking this all in stride. Meantime, Iran did say the U.S. restrictions are illegal and constitute an act of piracy and threaten the ports in the region if its own facilities are targeted.

2:39So it's like, yeah, peace. But hey, watch out. That is our world. just around 1240 p.m. ET from just outside the Oval Office. President Trump spoke on the weekend peace talks in Islamabad and how it went and how his team there on the ground, which included U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Woodcoff, and also his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, as well as his vice president, J.D. Vance, how they did. Well, he's done a good job. It's Steve and Jared. They've all done a very good job. And I can tell you that we've been called by the other side. They'd like to make a deal very badly. We've been called this morning by the right people, the appropriate people, and they want to work a deal.

3:21They would like to work a deal. All right, again, that was President Trump earlier outside the Oval Office. And, of course, talking about U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Whitcoff, his son-in-law, Jared Cushion, of course, his vice president, J.D. Vance. We knew we had to check in once again with our team in Washington, D.C. as we continue to hear a momentum, a flow of commentary out of the White House or out of social media. With us once again is Michelle Jamrisco. She's Bloomberg News White House and National Security Editor, again, joining us from the nation's capital. Michelle, good to have you here with Bailey and myself.

3:54Good to be here. So let's recap. What did we get from the president? What's new? What's significant in your view? markets just seem to be taking all of this in stride today. Well, we're in this position again, Carol, where we're trying to decipher what each side is saying and what to believe from what each side is saying and whether that matches what's happening behind the scenes. Well, at the same time, we're watching basically for any sort of kinetic action, not that we're hoping for it, but with the threat of a U.S. naval blockade that has come into effect hours ago and is now also paired with the president's threats to interdite any vessels of any country transiting from Iranian ports or to Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz and coastal areas, as well as any attacks on Iranian small boats that might approach the U.S.

4:45naval blockade. All that taking into account, we have not seen any sort of action yet that would be a flashpoint and perhaps scare markets even further. But at the same time, we're trying to decipher what to make of the president's remarks on where the diplomatic talks are going after the failure in Islamabad over the weekend. Now, I will just point out in the clip that you play just now, President Trump is referring to a call that has happened this morning. To my knowledge, we have not gotten any confirmation from the Iranian side as to whether that, in fact, was the case. And of course, again, the question of who participated from the Iranian side.

5:20We know who went to the direct talks in Pakistan. We don't know if those are the people really kind of pulling the levers on what the regime might act on in the end. Well, Michelle, how much, I'll call it static, is there in terms of who's actually participating in these conversations? And to your point, mixed messaging, whether these calls are actually taking place, whether the right people are involved in these conversations, and what that really means. Because if the question at the end of the day is, when does this conflict end? Presumably, it's pretty important who's in those meetings. Yeah, well, Bailey, a very fair question and one that we've had for many weeks now in some form.

5:56But what came out of the weekend, at least, was this assurance that we knew who from the Iranian side participated, the Iranian Speaker of Parliament, as well as the foreign minister getting involved. And we know, obviously, who on the U.S. side was involved in those direct talks. So at least there was some transparency over the weekend on these, you know, unprecedented, really, for many decades, direct talks between the two countries. But now what we see in the aftermath is kind of similar rhetoric that we've heard from both sides, really, U.S. and Iran, on where these talks are headed and what the disagreements are.

6:28There is a clear divergence of opinion and view on what broke down those talks over the weekend. We've heard, and we heard it again today from President Trump, that Iran's nuclear ambitions were the main reason that the talks broke down, that they would not concede on that point. And that's a deal breaker for the U.S. However, on the Iranian side, they have said that, you know, the distrust of U.S. negotiators, U.S. coming to the table to dictate rather than negotiate. And of course, some differences of opinion on things like war reparations and actually seizing the fighting and seizing attacks on Iran were among other disagreements that have remained for some time.

7:07So we don't know where talks are going. And I think you're seeing investors and others act on these kind of incremental developments, but not with the sort of confidence that, you know, action will follow in line with what they've said. Michelle, does it come down to one or two main points? Is it about the enriched uranium? Is it about, like, I don't know, I've kind of lost track of, and maybe this gets to the mission of what this war really is about. And so what is the main sticking point? Does it come down to one or two things here? Well, I think in broad strokes, Carol, you can say it comes down to nuclear ambitions and control of the Strait of Hormuz.

7:46But there are many things that the two countries have openly disagreed on, including the list of demands that the Iranians have released some weeks ago, maybe a week and a half or two ago, that did not match what the 10 and 15 point plans that the U.S. side has put forward. So there are a lot of smaller points that I think would not be agreed. But the big idea being the nuclear ambitions, there has not been a way forward on exactly how to play that. And, of course, a long time distrust on either side about whether or not Iran would be pursuing purely for scientific purposes and whether or not that would put the U.S.

8:26at ease, which it won't. So that is one big thing. But obviously caught up in all of this and what is really feeding the global energy crisis is the control of the Strait of Hormuz, which at times the U.S. has said would be something that could be worked out for the profit of everyone. Trump has kind of alluded to a sort of toll system that both the U.S. and Iran could benefit from. But at times he has said that is unacceptable, full stop. And so now we're at a blockade of a blockade, essentially, that really has the markets in this whirlwind trying to decipher what comes next and whether things will escalate before they de-escalate again.

9:05And Michelle, we only have about 30 seconds here. One of the touch points we've talked about on the markets desk is kind of this notion of a Trump put. At some point, he will walk back what he's pushing for with midterms on the horizon and with energy still far higher and more expensive than many people would have expected. Is there a time crunch or a limit where the White House is going to have to consider potential weakness going into the midterms just given rates are not lower and the cost of living has only gone up in the last few weeks? Michelle, we've only got about 25 seconds. Yeah. It's a great question, Bailey, and I think a lot of the political actors within the administration are looking toward the midterm deadline as a hard stop, but really would like things resolved much sooner than that to kind of alleviate Americans' concerns.

9:46But we've seen gas prices get worse, and the Iranians try to exploit that as well, warning that they would get much worse before the critical midterms if the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues. Yeah, right. It just makes you ask so many questions if you think about the midterms coming up. Michelle, thank you so much, as always. Michelle Jamrisco, Bloomberg News White House and National Security Editor. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.

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12:20Learn more at chase.com slash business. Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. The Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. Member FDIC. Copyright 2026. JPMorgan Chase and Company. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. President Trump did say that the U.S. would attack any Iranian vessels that approach U.S. ships in the Strait of Hormuz as that new naval blockade of the Vital Waterway took effect today.

13:01Here's what the president posted on social. And there's a lot here, but I'm going to get to what I think is the big warning. And that is, he talks about Iran's Navy laying at the bottom of the sea, completely obliterated 158 ships. What we have not hit are their small number of what they call fast attack ships because we did not consider them much of a threat. warning. If any of these ships come anywhere close to our blockade, they will be immediately eliminated using the same system of kill that we used against the drug dealers on boats at sea. So yeah, here's that warning from the president.

13:33Meantime, we also heard from John Bolton over the weekend, Bailey. Yeah, really interesting conversation with your normal co-host. Nothing's normal right now. He did. He talked about President Trump's blockade making sense. He did join the weekend team of Tim Stenevec and Christina Ruffini. He talked about the U.S. war in Iran. The only way to get true peace and security in the Middle East is to have regime change in Iran. You can negotiate all you want with these people. It's not going to change anything. And I think the failure of the Islamabad negotiations just makes the point as clearly as one can.

14:08I think the ceasefire was a mistake. Part of the problem here was caused by Donald Trump a few weeks ago lifting American sanctions on the shipment of Iranian oil. And I think he was motivated by fear of rising international oil prices. And he thought a few tankers might get the price down. I don't think that's correct. And he should he should reimpose the sanctions. That was former National Security Advisor John Bolton with Bloomberg's Tim Stenevec and Christina Ruffini on Bloomberg this weekend. And, Carol, obviously a lot going on. An interesting column out today about how the Hormuz blockade is a, quote, throw down the U.S.

14:47can't win. That's written by none other than Mark Champion. He is Bloomberg opinion columnist covering Europe, Russia and the Middle East. Joining us from London, Mark, President Trump saying the U.S. will eliminate Iranian fast attack ships if they come close to our blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Why do you believe this is a game of chicken between the U.S. and Iran when it comes to the blockades of the Strait or Hormuz? And how is that one that the U.S. can't win? Well, in essence, what you have is the U.S. saying, OK, we're going to block in order to get you back to the table. And we're going to block in order to force you to reopen the strait.

15:33And you get into a question there where the Iranians have said clearly, you know, we are not going to respond to that, except that we will start hitting, you know, Gulf ally ports, you know, the ports of the Gulf allies and in response if we need to. And the question then becomes, OK, so the U.S. has has cut off, you know, that the Iranians are stopping the supply from the Gulf states. The Americans are stopping the supply of oil from Iran. What happens? Well, you know, it's not so much today, you know, because the markets are listening to Trump saying that, you know, the American, the Iranians have already come to us and are asking for a deal.

16:22We'll see if that's true. I have my suspicions that it's not. But, you know, what happens then is that at some point the oil, reprice oil will go up because supply is shrinking. And then it's a question of who can last longer. You know, the Iranians will be suffering, but they've had a windfall for the last month or so through their ability to sell oil. And, you know, sanctions, as John Bolton said, were lifted. They were eased so that they were able to sell. They didn't have to sell at a discount anymore. So they've been earning a big windfall, and they have a cushion now. So they can sit on that cushion for several weeks, you know, or more.

17:09And even then, after that cushion expires, you know, it's a question of, you know, are they willing to endure more economic pain, to inflict more economic pain on their own people than is, you know, the U.S. and other countries around the world that will be suffering inflation and potential recessions as a result of, you know, U.S. actions in the Gulf? And I just, you know, can't really see knowing that, you know, who the Islamic Republic are and, you know, how their leaders kind of have almost been looking for this kind of showdown with the U.S. for, you know, decades, that they will fold. And you write in your column, Mark, make no mistake, the Iranian regime is monstrous and should not be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.

17:57And you're not alone in folks that have come in and say, you know, this is not this has not been a friend at all of the United States in particular for many decades here. Having said that, we keep saying that for Iran, this is existential, and their willingness to fight kind of to the bitter end. Regime change is not easy. We keep hearing that over and over. And that is kind of different from where the U.S. is coming from. I mean, they could back off. The president reminds us, we don't need the Strait of Hormuz. So I'm just, you know, wondering, is that part of, too, why the U.S. can't really win using this tactic?

18:32I think it's tough. I mean, I don't, there's a lot that I don't agree with John Bolton on. But one thing that he said, which is correct, is that this war only made sense to begin if it was going to end with regime change. Otherwise, you're simply trying to massage through force, you know, the behavior of the Islamic Republic. And that's an incredibly difficult thing to do. It's hard enough through negotiation, but to do it by force, to kind of calibrate that and to get the right kind of reactions, it's almost impossible to do. So what you really want to happen is regime change so that you just have a different bunch of people in charge of whatever nuclear stuff that they have, in charge of their ballistic missiles.

19:17This is a nation of 92 million. They are not going to completely disarm. What you want is to have a regime there that has an army and it has an armed force, it has whatever, an air force, whatever it has, and it simply isn't going to threaten its neighbors in the way that Iran had. You know, regime change so far has failed. Hey, one last question before we go. And this is something else that I know you've written. You understand Europe so well. The Viktor Orban election outcome. We're hearing his daughter and son-in-law have left. Allies have disappeared from airwaves and social media pages. There's unconfirmed reports of the movement of assets abroad and made calls for the Orban-connected elite to be brought to justice.

20:02Just got about 30, 40 seconds here. What's the significance of this loss to the region, to Russian President Vladimir Putin, to even a President Trump? It's really big. I mean, essentially, you know, here was the model conservative, you know, from sort of MAGA-type conservative in Europe. He was in power for 16 years this time, four years on a previous term. And he completely changed the fabric of Hungary, primarily because of a kind of quirk in the sort of institutional makeup that allowed him to change the constitution at will and to change laws at will. That is now reversed. It's not just that he lost.

20:43He lost the opposition, one with a constitutional majority. So they are now able to undo a lot of that stuff. And, you know, I think that's why you see, you know, a lot of his allies, you know, fleeing because they know that the boot's now on the other foot. All right. Great stuff, as always. And we always appreciate you staying up late there in London. Mark Champion, Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Europe, Russia and the Middle East. Highly recommend you check out his columns on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg.com. This is the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at 2 p.m.

21:18Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130. Investment bankers are talking about it, hitting the road to raise more than$15 billion potentially over the next few weeks, though all eyes are on the fragile ceasefire in Iran. Though this week alone, Carol, we could have five companies raise as much as$4.6 billion by Friday and a critical test for the spring window of deals. I think it's interesting. And I think, you know, you don't bring a company to market if you don't feel good about the environment or the macro.

21:55So I think it's really telling. I think it's another indicator that's an important read on where we are. An important read on where we are. And no one better to break that down than Michael Ventura. He is the co-head of U.S. equity capital markets at RBC here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio. Michael, thanks so much for joining us. Thanks for having me. Great seeing you. All right. So big week. A lot of companies looking to price billions potentially on the line. How important is it that these handful of deals price well and trade well, given, as Carol mentioned it, all the uncertainty from a macro perspective?

22:26Incredibly important that we have a constructive pricing backdrop. We've had an incredibly robust issuance backdrop this year, but with very binary outcomes. Deals that are up 30 % countered with deals that are down 30%. And so I think to keep this window open through the spring and summer pricing season, some constructive outcomes are sort of must-have. That binary outcome, is it just because some are really smart deals in price 12, some weren't price 12? Is there anything that you can say as to why you've seen those two different pathways? So many of the outcomes are deal-specific. I think what has been instructive and what will be interesting to watch in this next cohort of deals is obviously aftermarket support for each of these transactions.

23:07We have a number of transactions that are for, as you mentioned, sort of multi-billion dollar assets that are coming to market, a lot of them private equity backed. There will be more to come in terms of supply on a lot of these transactions. And I think what's been very encouraging on top of the resilience of the market, given the volatility that we're seeing, is the resilience of risk appetite from the buy side. Which, again, as we look for green shoots to keep this window open longer, those are all sort of very positive barometers for us as equity capital markets professionals. Well, take us behind the scenes.

23:38We're living in a market that moves on every headline and every potential attack or conversations around a ceasefire with DC and Iran at the front of everyone's mind going into earnings season. What are the conversations like among your banking peers when you're talking to a management team about, OK, now is the time for us to look to make a deal? Yeah, look, sometimes you don't know that the IPO window is open until you look down and it's definitively closed. And so for the folks who have done diligent preparation, they've tested the waters, they've engaged with institutional investors as part of their IPO prep, these valuations are generally quite well underwritten by the buy side prior to launch.

24:18You see a number of transactions that are coming to market this week that have cornerstone institutional investors or sponsors who are already sopping up some of that liquidity that will come to market. Making sure it goes well. Exactly. And so these deals are structured to be successful at the outset. Go. Well, no, I was just going to ask. This is your world. But we've been talking, right? So industrials, aerospace and defense, healthcare, are they active because of the calendar? Are they active because investors are saying to you and your colleagues and your peers across the street, hey, we want more of these types of companies?

24:51Yeah, not to get asset specific, but certainly some of the subsectors that you talked about are very much of the moment. Defense tech, space tech, other parts of the market that are obviously becoming very quickly sort of part of the zeitgeist, which you guys are covering quite well. Well done. Those are obviously very of the moment. Outside of that, again, you mentioned industrials, multi-billion dollar EBITDA companies that have been around for decades. I think these are assets where institutional investors feel very, very comfortable. Again, there's a lot of capital rotation that's going on.

25:22The set it and forget it software market of the last 10 years, a lot of that capital has been freed up and is looking to be redeployed into these new stories, new IPO entrants that are coming to market. When you talk about Michael, we're talking about Michael Ventura over at RBC Capital. And is it companies that have been private, private equity owned for a long time? So they've got a nice duration in terms of the business. You can look at a bunch of, you know, the balance sheets over a period of time. That's what you're talking about. They're finally coming to market. Exactly. Durability through cycles.