Warsh Vows to Deliver Price Stability, Fed ‘Regime Change’

14 Jul 2026 · 49 min · 27 chapters

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In short

The episode is a wide-ranging Bloomberg Business Week Daily segment covering: (1) Fed policy and inflation signals, (2) Kalshi’s push into “compute/GPU” prediction markets with a compute forward curve, and (3) energy-market geopolitics around the Strait of Hormuz and oil volatility, plus lighter lifestyle/weather talk about wearing shorts to work.

Guests and backgrounds

  • Yelena Shilyatova, Senior U.S. Economist at The Conference Board; moderated a discussion with Fed Governor Chris Waller; former Bloomberg colleague.
  • Chris Waller, Fed Governor (interviewed at a New York event).
  • Udesh Jha, Chief Risk Officer at Kalshi; previously at CME Group for 16 years.
  • Kat Doherty, Bloomberg News finance reporter (in-studio).
  • Jeff Caron, founder and CIO at Energy Group Capital; energy/natural resources/power hedge fund manager; long oil background.

Key claims + examples

  • Fed: Waller would need “several months” of lower inflation to stay on hold; hot core inflation could require tightening; Shilyatova expects underlying disinflation in 2H, citing CPI “cool” prints, tariff effects, normalized housing, and gasoline below June averages.
  • Kalshi: compute/GPU markets are not standardized; Kalshi’s forward curve is “market-driven” via prediction-market price discovery; expects hyperscalers, neocloud providers, AI inference/drug research, and retail/speculators to use it; aims to become an anchor benchmark for hedging/OTC pricing.
  • Energy: Caron argues China’s stockpiling acts like a “collar” to reduce oil volatility; despite Strait of Hormuz risk, China imports less when prices rise; he expects regional workarounds (pipelines) to reduce Iran’s leverage over a ~5-year horizon.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Discussion on Fed and Inflation

1:00 to 1:26

Examining recent comments by Fed Governor Chris Waller regarding inflation and monetary policy.

“If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it.”

Discussion on Fed and Inflation

2:02 to 4:30

Examining recent comments by Fed Governor Chris Waller regarding inflation and monetary policy.

“We're going to stay on the economy and the view of the Fed because we are getting a bunch of messaging, actually this time from another member of the U.S.”

Analysis of Economic Indicators

4:30 to 6:28

Yelena Shilyatova discusses indicators of inflation and consumer behavior in the economy.

“And, you know, the underlying forces that would push inflation lower will prevail in the second half of this year.”

Impact of Energy Prices on Inflation

6:28 to 8:34

Exploring the effects of energy prices and housing on overall inflation trends.

“you know, the prices at the pump are still below the average level that we saw back in June.”

Conclusion of the Discussion

9:10 to 10:05

Wrapping up insights from Yelena Shilyatova on the current economic landscape.

“shares, and Fidelity ETS as of 6-15-2026.”

Future of Computing Power

11:27 to 14:00

Discussion on the future of computing power and prediction markets with Udash Jha.

“Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern.”

Exploring Prediction Markets for Compute

14:00 to 17:00

Learn about the growth and strategic advantages of prediction markets in compute trading.

“But you've launched a number of new products outside of event contracts.”

The Unique Challenges of Compute Pricing

17:00 to 21:20

Understand the complexities of pricing in a rapidly evolving compute market.

“which is to bring price discovery in the marketplace so that it can be used for hedging, trading, and other purposes down the line.”

Identifying Key Market Participants

21:20 to 24:40

Discover who the core users and participants are in the compute market.

“I think, as I mentioned earlier, this marketplace is still finding its footing.”

Competing in the Derivatives Space

24:40 to 28:00

Explore how new players like Kalshi can compete with established exchanges.

“So we do expect, and then retail, of course, for an asset class which is as exciting and potentially volatile, I think we will see retail and other speculative power come in as well.”
Show all 27 chapters

Discussion on Perpetual Futures and Regulation

28:00 to 29:42

Explore the unique aspects of perpetual futures and the regulatory landscape.

“So you come from a company that's trying to shut down the company you just joined.”

Interview Wrap-up with Udesh Jha

29:42 to 30:56

Concluding thoughts with Udesh Jha about perpetuals and their future.

“Udesh Jha, he is Chief Risk Officer of Kalshi, joining us from London.”

Interview Wrap-up with Udesh Jha

31:00 to 32:14

Concluding thoughts with Udesh Jha about perpetuals and their future.

“Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA and SIPC.”

Geopolitical Impact on Oil Markets

32:50 to 34:01

Analyzing President Trump's decisions and their effects on oil markets.

“Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern.”

The Role of China in Global Oil Supply

34:01 to 36:10

Discussing China's influence on oil supply and demand dynamics.

“And I'm curious about the shock absorber effect that you argue we have seen in markets as oil prices have fluctuated over the last few months.”

China's Shift Towards Alternative Energy

36:10 to 38:36

Exploring China's efforts to reduce dependence on oil through alternatives.

“Well, your point is well taken, which is that China, there's always, as you would expect, a lot of opacity with how they make decisions.”

Trading Strategies Amidst Market Volatility

38:36 to 42:00

Understanding Energy Group Capital's trading strategies in volatile markets.

“But they're they're trying their best to reduce their dependence on foreign oil.”

Iran's Leverage and Future Decisions

42:00 to 43:21

Explore Iran's current leverage and its implications in the next five years.

“decision maker, you're thinking, okay, if we overpress our leverage here, we're basically expediting our neighbors not using the straight-up moves, like pipelines like we've seen to Yanbu in Saudi Arabia.”

Iran's Leverage and Future Decisions

43:28 to 44:16

Explore Iran's current leverage and its implications in the next five years.

“Support for the show comes from public.com.”

Iran's Leverage and Future Decisions

44:30 to 45:34

Explore Iran's current leverage and its implications in the next five years.

“Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor.”

The Shorts Debate: Fashion and Comfort

46:10 to 48:24

Discuss the cultural perceptions of wearing shorts in professional settings.

“Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern.”

Historical Perspectives on Men's Fashion

48:28 to 50:44

Examine how historical trends have influenced modern dress codes.

“So you get into the history a little bit in the piece, but why are shorts having a moment?”

Changing Attitudes Toward Casual Wear

50:45 to 51:41

Delve into the evolution of casual wear in professional environments.

“He said no backpacks except if you're an intern.”

The Influence of Industrialization on Fashion

51:42 to 53:19

Learn about the impact of industrialization on clothing styles and societal norms.

“Oh, yeah, like men in courtly situations, they wore culottes or they wore breeches and then they wore stockings.”

Respect and Presentation in Professional Settings

53:20 to 55:08

Consider how clothing choices reflect self-respect and professionalism.

“Like, you know, we went to casual Fridays and like people were wearing khakis, you know, the pandemic.”

Cultural Perspectives on Outdoor Living

55:09 to 56:00

Explore the Norwegian concept of outdoor living and its societal implications.

“Listen, if you do what you love, you never work a day in your life.”

Luxury Shopping at Airports

56:00 to 59:07

Discover the unique world of luxury shopping at airports and how to score deals.

“Maybe like nine years ago, ten years ago with my wife.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

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1:00Carol Massar:Healthcare doesn't always work great. If you've ever waited on a refill or couldn't schedule an appointment, you get it. That's the kind of stuff Optum is changing. They're using data and technology to integrate patient care, pharmacy, and everything else. So healthcare is connected, not complicated. What's that look like? Cheaper prescriptions that are easier to get and care that looks at the whole person. How you need it. Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Learn more at business.optum.com. Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily.

1:41Reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead. With insight on the people, companies and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. With Carol Masser and Tim Stenevek. on Bloomberg Radio.

2:02Carol Massar:We're going to stay on the economy and the view of the Fed because we are getting a bunch of messaging, actually this time from another member of the U.S. Central Bank. Yeah, on Monday at a New York Association for Business Economics event, the conference board's senior U.S. economist, our former Bloomberg colleague Yelena Shilyatova, moderated a discussion with Fed Governor Chris Waller. He said he would need to see several months of lower inflation data to feel confident in the trajectory of price pressures. If that pans out, he said, it would make sense for the Fed to continue holding rates steady.

2:33And if it doesn't. If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term. As always, we need to avoid making the mistake of fighting the last war and reacting too soon to tighten inflation.

2:55Carol Massar:All right. That, of course, is Fed Governor Chris Waller with the conference board, senior U.S. economist and our former Bloomberg colleague Yelena Shaleteva. And she is the New York Association for Business Economics, I believe, new president. So congratulations. Listen, it's so good to have you here with Tim and me, Yelena. That's Miss President. Yes, Miss President, Madam President. Thank you, guys. It's such an honor. Thank you. Well, honor to have you here back with us. We always appreciate your perspective on things. Tell us about this conversation with Chris Waller. He seems like he and the Fed, to some extent, are on point.

3:30Carol Massar:They are still concerned about inflation. So what got everybody's attention yesterday was that Governor Waller said that, yes, if we get another hot print, we would not hesitate and we will have to move policy rates in the right direction. Right. But what he said as well was that, well, if we get a cool reading, we will have to see some more evidence that inflation is subsiding. And I think that's exactly what is happening right now. So we got a cool reading on CPI, and I do see Chair Warsh's comments today in the same context. So he said that the mission is not accomplished, and basically the Fed now needs to see a few more cool readings on inflation to stay on hold.

4:29So at the conference board, we think that the underlying pace of inflation will prevail. And, you know, the underlying forces that would push inflation lower will prevail in the second half of this year. And ultimately, we will see the Fed staying on hold. But that's exactly what happened, I think, both at the event yesterday and as Chair Walsh was commenting on inflation today. They just need to see a little bit more evidence that inflation is cooling down. Obviously, the CPI report today was a cool one. It was. And that report notwithstanding, I just want to go to your prediction at the conference board.

5:11Why are you confident that you will see lower inflation prevail, especially at a time where we do see things heating up in the Strait of Hormuz? Well, energy is not the only thing, right? It's not, but it really goes through to so much. It goes through to prices we pay at the grocery store. It goes through for transportation costs. So, you know, not necessarily a lot of services and it's not as big as part of our economy as it was 30 years ago, but it's still it has an effect. Sure. But what kind of an effect, right? Does it really suppress consumer demand? And we do see in other prices that consumers are pushing back.

5:49They are not happy and they are pushing back and they're not paying the higher price. So look at prices of other goods like cars and apparel. There's also some tariff impact that is leaving inflation. And that's what we see as well. So another thing is housing. So housing prices continue to normalize. So there are a lot of other things that may, you know, countervail other prices, other forces that are pushing inflation higher. Another thing that I would like to make is that if you look at prices of gasoline, you know, the prices at the pump are still below the average level that we saw back in June.

6:39So we may actually see another cool reading in July, despite some recent pickup in energy prices.

6:47Carol Massar:So economy OK? More than OK, Yelena? Oh, it's much more complicated than that, Carol. I think it's OK, but growth is very much concentrated in investment. And that's not something that I'm very happy to see. I mean, it's great that the economy is growing and investment is a is a positive thing, of course. But is it one story in terms of the investment that's going on? Right. And what I would like to see, to be more confident in the economy is consumer, consumer engaging at a full force. And unfortunately, what I see is that consumers will probably, you know, spend at a slightly slower pace. And growth in that sector is what really matters for a broader economy.

7:41And here probably, you know, I'm a little bit more pessimistic than Governor Waller, who mentioned that the consumer is really doing great at the event yesterday. So then what are policymakers to do? I think they will stay on hold. And, you know, I think that the five task forces that, you know, Chair Wash reiterated today, they will allow the Fed some time to really look and see what is happening and how all the events in the Middle East are percolating through it through the economy.

8:18Carol Massar:Interesting times. Yeah. Yeah. This war that kind of keeps going on and continues to be a factor. Yelena, thank you as always. We really appreciate you jumping on, especially after that event you did with Chris Waller. Really fun to get you here directly. That, of course, Yelena Shalacheva, Senior U.S. Economist at the Conference Board. She is Madam President, President of the New York Association for Business Economics. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

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10:27Carol Massar:Let's talk about healthcare for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated, for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together.

11:05Carol Massar:Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. And those prescriptions? Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube. So remember back in May, I don't know if you remember this, it was at the Milken Institute, their global conference in Beverly Hills.

11:46If you weren't watching our show, if you don't remember this.

11:50Carol Massar:Because it was on. It was on. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said, global demand for computing power is so huge that traders will one day be able to bet on a futures market for it. Here's a refresher in case you missed it or forgot about it. The United States has short power. We're short compute. We're short chips. And there are going to be shortages in all three and memory for things. I actually believe a new asset class will be buying futures of compute. We just don't have enough compute power right now. And that was BlackRock's Larry Fink at Milkenback in May. While Larry's prediction might just be coming true, Calci has created a tool that plots the future price of computing power, joining the ranks of exchange and index operators attempting to build markets around the commodity powering artificial intelligence.

12:43Joining us now with more in a Bloomberg exclusive, Udash Jha, Chief Risk Officer of the Prediction Market, Calci, joining us from London. Also with us, Bloomberg News Finance reporter Kat Doherty here in the studio. Udash, you were just appointed to this position coming from the derivatives marketplace CME group. You spent 16 years at CME. You posted on LinkedIn that you started paying attention to Kalashie back in 2024 during the elections. What struck you then and why at the end of the post you say, I've never felt this energized in a long time. What struck you about this company? Tim, thanks for having me on the show.

13:18I think I, as you said, I've been at CME. I was at CME for 16 years. I joined CME at the onset of the Dodd-Frank post-clearing mandates. and now looking ahead 16 years i think i see the same excitement in the financial industry with uh with prediction markets with the migration to tokens with with cloud adoption and and so many other things so it is and from that standpoint i think calci at the center of a lot of that innovation is a really exciting place and i'm super excited to be joining at this part of the journey with them. So, Udesh, many people know Kalshi for event contracts, betting on the likelihood of, let's say, a FIFA game and who's going to be the World Cup winner at the end of this week.

14:07But you've launched a number of new products outside of event contracts. Can you talk about some of the recent initiatives and why you're moving away from or adding to event contracts? Yeah, that's a great question. I think as we have seen, event contracts are, or prediction markets are becoming quite mainstream for a few reasons. One is the predictive power that they provide, the very specific questions that they ask, which help the institutions, retail, and other participants manage risk. And today, we are at Calci, we have about a very large set of institutional and direct retail participants who are able to do so.

14:51And with that in mind, we have seen a fairly large growth in some of the very important asset classes, such as crypto, such as KPI markets. And now I'm excited to talk today about the compute market, which is GPU related, that we are excited to also bring in to the marketplace for risk management and other needs.

15:14Carol Massar:And we want to dig into this. Just two quick questions. Is BlackRock involved? Right now, at this point in time, this is something that we have done organically. We do have pricing information that comes from one of our partner vendors that's available on our website. But we do expect large institutions to take advantage of this innovation by looking at the forward curves and use it to price deals, to do OTC contracts, to do other sorts of derivatives for their purposes. And I know it's early. Are people calling you already because they're interested in terms of various institutions or institutional investors?

15:53Yes, we are. We are getting a lot of inbounds because we are filling a void in this marketplace, which was very important. If you're Bloomberg, for example, is very big in the swaps market. As you know, for pricing interest rate swaps or any other derivative or any other deal that depends, forward curve is very important. It is extremely valuable for anybody doing a five-year swap or a two-year swap to know what would be the rate on a particular index out there. And that's precisely what we have done. We know that eventually this market is going to become quite large. Some estimates of the total addressable market size are in trillions.

16:36If you look at the amount of funding committed by the hyperscalers, they are north of$500 to$600 billion just for 2026. And if you look at multiples beyond that, what this market could be, it's a very large market. So we are getting a lot of inbound, but we do want to start first with a natural requirement, which is to bring price discovery in the marketplace so that it can be used for hedging, trading, and other purposes down the line. So CME Group said back in May that it would launch computing power futures linked to an index compiled by Silicon Data Intercontinental Exchange. It owns the New York Stock Exchange.

17:16And I'm reading right from Kat's article here. Teaming up with the financial infrastructure firm Orn to add futures contracts for computing power. Why are you better positioned to build this tool than they are? I think I would start by saying that by such CME and eyes and others, it actually lends a lot of credence to the marketplace, to the demand for this, in addition to what Larry Fink said earlier. But prediction markets are unique for a few reasons. One, the compute or the GPU market is not standardized at this point in time. There are many different factors that play into that index. It could be locations, the chips, the different kinds of chips, the grades, the different uses.

18:02So rather than focusing on a particular index or a particular contract, the prediction market allows us to list several of these contracts, which is what we have done. And the prediction market also ensures very robust price discovery at much lower levels of total open interest that we have seen through many of other contracts. So this is where it is very uniquely positioned to bring in a more accurate price discovery than focusing on one or two different grades of the marketplace and do a traditional future. Udesh, you're mentioning an issue that has been raised in terms of this is a nascent asset class.

18:47It is a market that is evolving. We have a number of exchanges, as Tim mentions, that have gotten into the compute market and trying to develop it. Why is this price discovery that you're talking about, do you find it to be a more accurate indicator of where compute prices are at this moment? And then with this forward curve, where they are indicated at a future point in time? Yeah, I think one of the unique aspects of our price discovery that it's market driven. There are some forward curves out there, but they are derived not out of market inputs, but through either OTC deals or other bilateral contracts.

19:28But ours is a true market driven. And that is where the power of the wisdom of the crowd of the marketplace and the accuracy that comes out of it comes to full form. And that's why it's unique and the first in its category. And who do you see as your core users for this product? We do expect to see a variety of users. I think on one side, you have the natural sellers of compute, hyperscalers. You can have the NeoCloud providers. On the other side, there are the users of compute, AI inference companies, medical research companies coming up with which have significant computing needs to do drugs research.

20:14retail, many of which would like to, which were interested or are speculators in the marketplace. So we do feel this, just like many other commodities, to have a breadth of producers or suppliers and demand that will propel this ecosystem or the marketplace. Udish, I want to try to understand some of the nuance in this and how you account for the nuance. Maybe it's algorithmically. I'm just curious from you. In this release, Tarek Mansour, or the company's founder CEO says that compute is the new oil. Compute futures will eventually dwarf oil futures. Oil, though, is fungible. It's a barrel of Brent.

20:53It's a barrel of Brent. It kind of doesn't matter. An hour, though, on an H200 is not the same as an hour on a B200. Chips depreciate. New architecture arrives every 12 to 18 months. Pricing power shifts. How do you build a reliable forward curve on a commodity that kind of like as soon as, it's like a new car. It becomes obsolete or it depreciates as soon as you drive it off the lot. And that's a very, very important point that you make, Tim. I think, as I mentioned earlier, this marketplace is still finding its footing. There are several grades, there are several different tanners, several different categories that give the appearance that it is quite dispersed.

21:36I would like to say that even in the oil market, there are many different grades. There is the WTI cushion grade. There is the WTI. But there are various forms of WTI. But the marketplace has gravitated and formed a representative index, which is good for the market. And then there are basis products that drive. So we expect the marketplace to gravitate towards that. And the prediction markets and our forward curve to be a good enabler so that markets, our users can see the price on different grades of GPU compute at different tenors. And then the market will most likely gravitate towards a limited set of usable indices.

22:18And then there will be basis products adjacent to those indices, just like WTI and Brent have. We're speaking with Udash Jha, Chief Risk Officer of the Prediction Market Platform, Kalshi, joining us from London. It's a Bloomberg exclusive. Kat Doherty from Bloomberg News is also here. Udash, I wanted to ask, so we have this forward product that you have just released, but the intention moving forward, could you and do you plan to release other products that are investable products on top of this forward curve? Yes, I think the forward curve is sort of your foundation. to do other products, such as futures, such as swaps, such as any other derivatives.

23:03So we'll see where the demand takes us. But I think our focus in the very immediate term is to build liquidity on the markets that are driving this forward curve so that this becomes the anchor or the benchmark for the industry.

23:20Carol Massar:so one of the things i'm curious about is and and follow me for a second if you get like who actually trades this in the first year and i bring it up because the buyers who needed this most we're talking about the ai startups um using millions of compute for training right there's that are also the ones least able to post margin and kind of manage derivatives risk the sellers the hyperscalers you know whether it's aws whether it's google cloud they have already in many ways locked in capacity through those long-term contracts. We talk about it a lot here at Bloomberg. They have no obvious incentive to essentially give up some of that pricing power to an exchange.

23:57Carol Massar:So, you know, Udash, who do you see as using this in the first year, if you will? And what happens if liquidity is too thin, so thin to produce a meaningful price signal, which is so important to really a truly functional marketplace? Yeah, I think you're very right. I think there is a lot of capacity that the hyperscalers have already committed to. But we are also seeing an astronomical speed at which the demand is growing over the last six months or even a year, if you look back. The adoption of compute that are heavily dependent on AI and others have been growing on quite. So there are going to be quite a few on the demand side that will emerge, whether it's financial institutions or drug research institutions or neoclouds lending them.

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24:48So we do expect, and then retail, of course, for an asset class which is as exciting and potentially volatile, I think we will see retail and other speculative power come in as well. And I do expect hyperscalers to at some point in time do look at this market as well. Udesh, I want to bring it back to your experience at CME. You've launched this forward curve. You're planning to launch other products off of it, other derivatives. What gives Calci the right to compete with the incumbents in an industry that you have many traditional institutional players in the market that are used to going to a CME or an ICE, and you have a newer player like Calci coming in with new products?

25:33How do you plan to stand up against the incumbents? I think one of the biggest strengths of CalSHI, and this is one of the reasons why I joined CalSHI after 16 years at CME Group, was the importance that Tariq and Luana put on risk management and doing it the right way. If you remember, CalSHI waited for four years, waiting for regulatory approval to just launch a product. Recently, we launched Perpetual Futures. We work for 18, 19 months to launch it. So I think the risk first is, and adopting of technology is one of the reasons why Calci, I feel very confident that we have the right to win in this marketplace.

26:16You know, it makes me think too of, and Kat hit on this, and she hits on this in her Bloomberg news piece as well, the evolution of the platform. It's known for being a prediction market. And Bloomberg Intelligence, our in-house group of analysts here, had a report earlier this year that said the vast majority of what happens on prediction markets, including Kalshi, is still sports gambling. What are some benchmarks that you're using internally right now to make sure you diversify what is actually happening on the platform so you move away from just concentration risk? Yeah, I think if you look at the growth, I think everything is growing.

26:57So obviously, with the events in the sports, with World Cup and others, it is hard to focus on something that's not World Cup. But if you look at the growth in our marketplace, which are true risk management products, whether it's weather markets, whether it's KPI markets, whether it's people wanting to have a prediction market on Fed raising or keeping rates on, I think a lot of them are growing. I think and we are also starting to see institutions come and join our platform. So overall, I think the whole pie is growing quite comfortably where we would like it to be, even though some of the recent World Cup and other events give the impression that the market share is still very high on sports.

27:48Carol Massar:Udesh, I want to end where we kind of started. And we talked about your background, 16 years at CME, MD running post-trade services. CME is suing the CFTC to block how she's perpetual futures. So you come from a company that's trying to shut down the company you just joined. It's kind of interesting, the dynamics. I'm curious, should CME be worried at their former risk head who knows clearing and settlement infrastructure who now works for a competitor? Well, I wouldn't want to speak on CME's behalf, but what I want to talk about the perpetuals is the perpetual futures that we have launched are very different than what the way perpetuals trade offshore.

28:33So I think, and they are very much like any other future that CME or others trade. So I think to answer your question, again, I'm not going to speak on CME's behalf, but I'm quite excited to be in a place where we launched the first true perpetuals in a regulated exchange using the proper risk management tools. And now the first exchange to be doing a compute forward curve, which will benefit the broader industry. Have you had conversations with your regulators about perpetuals and your plans moving forward to, I assume, launch many more outside of crypto assets? We always have conversations with our regulators on different products and asset classes.

29:18So the answer is yes. We follow the regulatory process, which is quite robust from a CFTC standpoint in terms of how they look at our products, the risk management, the data before we launch. anything that is on our platform.

29:34Carol Massar:Well, we are definitely intrigued and interested. And every time you say something, we were like, wait, we have one more question. So Udesh, stay in touch. And we'd love to know how this progresses. Udesh Jha, he is Chief Risk Officer of Kalshi, joining us from London. So appreciate it. And also in studio, our Kat Dori out with this Bloomberg exclusive. She's Bloomberg News Finance Reporter. Highly recommend you check out her story. It's on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg.com. So great stuff. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

30:30S &P 500. Or if my cash balance goes above$20 ,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve the workflow and your agent handles the risk. Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions, and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com slash market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com slash market. Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA and SIPC.

31:10Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures.

31:18Carol Massar:Let's talk about healthcare for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated, for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together.

31:56Carol Massar:Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. And those prescriptions? Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how. These days, it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn. every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agent's identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust.

32:36So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta, you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent. Secure any agent. Okta secures AI. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Or watch us live on YouTube.

33:03Carol Massar:All right, so there's a bunch of stuff we want to just point out. President Trump backing away from his plan to impose a 20 percent charge on cargo shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. This is coming after U.S. allies in the Gulf urged him to drop it. The president did announce the decision today just one day after rolling out the fees saying that the expected revenue would be replaced by forthcoming direct investments in the U.S. from Gulf states. He did not, though, specify a dollar amount of which countries would participate. And we did see oil pairing gains after the president's post and then rebounded.

33:35Carol Massar:I just want to point out right now, I'm looking at Brent crude, was up as much as 5 percent now, just about a 2 percent gain. WTI crude, Tim, did also rally as much as 4 percent. Right now, I'm looking at a move to the upside of about 1.8%. We're joined by Jeff Caron, founder and chief investment officer at Energy Group Capital. It's a hedge fund manager. It focuses on energy, natural resource, and power. He joins us from San Francisco. Jeff, good to have you on the program. You've got a deep history in oil. Your dad was an oil man. And I'm curious about the shock absorber effect that you argue we have seen in markets as oil prices have fluctuated over the last few months.

34:13Can you explain what has happened here and the way that people or countries are buying? Sure. You know, when I think about oil and gas, right, the story is kind of two main characters, supply and demand. And so when hostilities broke out in early March, you know, most people focused on the supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. All these barrels that were getting to market couldn't get to market. But just as important was on the demand side. And China has increasingly played the role of swing demand, which means that when prices are low in crude oil, they import barrels in excess of their own needs and then stockpile it.

34:56And then when prices are high, they import less than they need and then they destock or they draw on their own stockpiles of crude oil. So what's happened is while most analysts really looked at the supply disruption and projected oil prices to go sort of through the roof, 150, 200. The Chinese on the other side were significantly reducing the amount of imported oil that they took in. So by doing this, think of them as almost like an oil trader where they had a collar on, meaning they were selling an out of the money call and they were selling an out of the money put. And it kind of allowed for sort of a, you know, kind of a short oil volatility by reducing kind of the swings in oil.

35:40They've increasingly been doing this with oil prices for years, but we saw it massively these last few months.

35:49Carol Massar:So thank you, China. Right, Jeff? I mean, in terms of putting this collar on. But the longer this goes on, at some point, don't they have to restock their reserves? We know that they They are all in and increasingly in terms of alternative energy. But if this goes on longer and there's still trouble in the strait, at some point, are they going to have to perhaps buy and become a bigger factor in the energy markets? Well, your point is well taken, which is that China, there's always, as you would expect, a lot of opacity with how they make decisions. You don't even know how much crude they have.

36:26That's sort of a state secret in reserves. But for now, you know, we believe they have somewhere on the order of maybe 1.4 billion barrels of reserves. And if you think of the deficit, meaning what they were importing before the hostilities to now, it's roughly 6 million barrels less. So when you take 6 million, when you take 6 million over 1.4 billion, it implies they could go a very long time. That doesn't mean they have to. They could increase, they could go back in the market and drive prices higher today. But I don't think that's their decision. I think that they're truly desire kind of a low volatility for oil.

37:10So again, buying more than they need when prices are low and buying less than they need when prices are high.

37:16Carol Massar:Jeff, I want to stick with China for a moment because I want to go to them as a country, as a government leaning in big time on alternative energy. And whether it's nuclear plants or what have you, I mean, their longer term play, right, is to get them off of fossil fuels if they can. I mean, they don't like being dependent on others for energy needs. One hundred percent. You nailed it. They they view it sort of like the United States did for many, many decades going back to World War Two. Right. As a strategic vulnerability to be a huge importer of oil. And as you can imagine, while they're an importer, they kind of rely on the United States Navy, the Blue Water Navy, to protect their supply lines.

38:03But on the other hand, if the United States is protecting their supply lines, they could theoretically cut them off. So, you know, China would love to take their need for imported oil to zero. They simply don't have the reserves internally to do it, but they're making every effort to reduce by electric vehicles, you know, because oil is a transportation fuel. They're also moving a lot of their truck fleet to liquefied natural gas, kind of, you know, oil like. But they're they're trying their best to reduce their dependence on foreign oil. So Jeff, we've talked a lot about the macro picture, and I'm wondering how this translates into your trading strategy at Energy Group Capital, where you do focus on the energy transition, where you're focused on finding alpha in a market that many people argue is extremely efficient but has been very volatile over the last few months.

39:04well you know what we try to do just in the macro picture as a fund is we try to identify places where there's uh supply and demand imbalances that are relatively persistent so you know we tend to like to so that's one like when it comes to commodities where is there too much demand or too little supply, for instance, whether it's oil or gas. We look for places where there's persistent demand. You mentioned solar. We're very bullish on solar in the United States. It makes a lot of sense. You're seeing it in states, not just California, but Texas, where solar is increasingly becoming sort of baseline for the grid.

39:48And so we look for pockets of energy where we think that, you know, where we're bullish or bearish on a subsector, if you will. What we try to do within the context of our fund is that we have a risk management overlay. So if we're, say, bullish crude oil, we will have longs and shorts in the sector. And we do that in each and every sector so that we kind of, we allow the thesis to play out, but we're not 100 % exposed to the commodity price.

40:19Carol Massar:I'm curious if you have more longs or long shorts. And I bring that up because we have some headlines crossing the Bloomberg. The U.S. military says it started more Iran strikes today at 3 p.m. Eastern. And at the same time, you've got the U.S. headline, U.S. backing the Iraq-Syria oil pipeline to weaken Iran's Strait of Hormuz hold. I mean, what's the play here? How do you see this ending ultimately? Does Iran get broken? We know how powerful they are because of the strait. So increasingly, are we seeing the region, the world try to figure out a workaround, whether it's a pipeline or a different way of longer term moving oil around?

41:01Well, to answer your first question is, we try to stay neutral to the price of oil. So we have relative longs and relative shorts, because I don't frankly have an edge on the geopolitical. I will tell you that over an extent, you mentioned five years, and five years is the right time frame, in my opinion. What's happening now is because 20 % of the world's oil flowed through the Strait of Hormuz, and because that was a global vulnerability and more, it was a regional vulnerability, right, for Kuwait and Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, UAE, what's going to happen is by this geopolitical, let's call it a fiasco, it incentivizes all of those countries to be less dependent on the Strait of Hormuz.

41:45So if you think of Iran as having leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, it is entirely temporary. Because what will happen is all of the other actors in the region will now start planning around this eventuality. So if you're an Iranian decision maker, you're thinking, okay, if we overpress our leverage here, we're basically expediting our neighbors not using the straight-up moves, like pipelines like we've seen to Yanbu in Saudi Arabia. So my point is that Iran may have some relative leverage today. It will be virtually gone in five years. And so their decision making is what do we do in the meantime?

42:27How much do we press today and sort of pull forward the benefits? Is it just 20 seconds and we got to go? Is it inevitable that that these countries will press toward that potential five year timeline of moving away from relying on the straight of hormones? Is that just inevitable at this point, regardless of what Iran does right now? I think it's inevitable. I think that they all found out that it was they were relying on the kindness of Iran with their drones of allowing their molecules to pass freely. And so there may or may not be a taxation, kind of a levy going through that, but it's only temporary.

43:05This will they will they will they will reduce their leverage.

43:10Carol Massar:Great conversation. Jeff, thank you so much. Jeff Karin, Chief Investment Officer, Portfolio Manager at Energy Group Capital. Be well, be well out there in San Francisco. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

43:28Support for the show comes from public.com. If you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions, buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge. On public, you can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English. Like, if the VIX hits 25, buy a put option on the S &P 500. Or, if my cash balance goes above$20 ,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve of the workflow and your agent handles the rest. Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions, and executing your strategies exactly as defined.

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44:38Carol Massar:Let's talk about healthcare for a second. It doesn't always work the way people expect it to. If you've ever waited on a prescription refill or had a hard time getting the care you needed, you know the feeling. The system should just work better for everyone. That's exactly what the people at Optum are trying to do every day. They're a healthcare company linking patient care and pharmacy services and using data and technology to drive the whole system so care is connected, not complicated. for patients and providers. Things like making it easier to get care that looks at the whole person, from primary care doctors to mental health support and even in-home care, and then using technology to make sure they all work together.

45:16Carol Massar:Technology designed to help doctors spend less time on busy work and more time with their patients. And those prescriptions? Optum is working to bring costs down, save patients money, and make it easier to get refills. Little by little, Optum is helping make healthcare work as one for everyone. Head to business.optum.com to see how. These days, it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn, every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agent's identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust.

45:56So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta, you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent. Secure any agent. Okta secures AI. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 Eastern. Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Or watch us live on YouTube.

46:23Carol Massar:We wear short shorts. We wear short shorts. If you dare wear short shorts. Therefore short shorts. All right. You, hopefully there was a little bit of a debate. Like when we were talking about doing this on the show today, there's like sort of a divide between who knows this ad and the song versus who doesn't. I think the three of us sitting here know this. Yes. Are familiar with this. Taking you back to the seventies. Or yeah. Or, or just like, it's kind of legendary. It is legendary. Like it's, you know, being culturally literate. So we're talking about shorts in the office. We are. Here's what I've started doing over the past few years.

47:01As, as you guys know. I wear shorts on my commute. You do. Because it's like, tomorrow's going to be 97 degrees. Absolutely. I'm walking, I walk miles dropping these kids off at camp or school or whatever. I sweat a lot in this humidity. And then I get into the office and I basically run from the elevators trying to avoid everybody and go and change into actual work clothes. Yeah. Chris Rauser is not the same. He wears shorts into the office and he wears them proudly. Yes great.

47:34Carol Massar:Oh, and you can actually see watching this on YouTube or Bloomberg original Yeah, I shorts are nice though. They're ironed Sometimes they don't sprint to my desk. I prance Struts I am proud of wearing shorts There's a list of about a dozen people in this building who I do not want to see Between when I'm wearing those shorts and when I'm when I'm changed. Yes, I have seen some of those people The voice of here is Chris Rauser. He's editor-at-large for Bloomberg Pursuits. He's probably the only person who can write 2 ,000 words about shorts and wearing them or not to the office. And I think, Chris, it's actually an important story for our time.

48:17We're going to talk to Mark Gongloff in a few minutes about heat and weather and sort of what we're going through here in the U.S. and in Europe this summer. But the conversation is particularly relevant right now. It's very important. Thank you for paying attention to this. It's a very important subject.

48:31Carol Massar:We do. So you get into the history a little bit in the piece, but why are shorts having a moment? Well, shorts are having a moment on runways, on streets because it's so hot, and a little bit in offices. I have been on a warpath for a couple of years now where my rule is if it's 90 degrees or higher, you get to wear shorts to work. Now, I know I'm wrong. We did a poll of Bloomberg users, and only 45 % of people thought it was appropriate to wear shorts to work. And many of them left comments like, yes, of course, if you work in a surf shop. One person said, AI is taking all our humanity. All we have left is pants.

49:12So this is an unpopular stance. But the world is changing. France recorded its hottest temperature ever two weeks ago.

49:19Carol Massar:And there's no air over there, right, AC? see the tube in London is like uh like a a hell pipe you know like it's just truly miserable why can't we wear clothes that recognize that we have actual bodies that exist in an actual world yeah I ask you what's what's wrong with that tell us what's going on too in Japan didn't they kind of come out I think the governor and and declare that male municipal workers were allowed to wear shorts to work yeah so uh Japan and Tokyo has had this uh initiative Tokyo Cool Biz since like the mid-aughts, which was basically like, we don't need to be so dressed up.

49:56We can relax with some of our codes. And then this year, they went as far as to say in April, okay, you can actually wear shorts to work because for saving money on air conditioning costs, it just was like an actual civic duty. You should wear shorts. And that's a very formal culture, much more formal than we are, yeah.

50:15Carol Massar:Exactly. You know, it's funny in your piece, you quote people, Some of them are investors that people have heard of, like Bill Ackman. Some are prominent doctors, real estate brokers who are touring multimillion dollar homes, partners at prominent law firms. Every single one of them was like, do not wear shorts. Correct. In fact, the part of the law firm said three piece suit, tie and dress shoes that are made of leather that are black or brown. No sneakers. Yes, correct. He that person also recognizes that he is on the more formal edge of the spectrum. He said no backpacks except if you're an intern.

50:51But yeah, most people feel like it's not OK. A lot of people I spoke to, like that real estate agent, like this interior designer, even people who are not in strictly formal offices, if they've ever been shamed or yelled at by someone, which a lot of us have, including me in this office, it sticks with you. And you're like, OK, my behavior code is set by somebody disapproving of me. And then it sticks with me for the rest of my career. Wait, was Bill Ackman talking about giving up short selling? Well, he's already given up short selling. Okay, but he doesn't wear shorts either. I asked him about short shorts, and he said, no, no, I don't.

51:28But he does play tennis, and he wears shorts when he plays tennis. Yes, but not in the office. All right.

51:33Carol Massar:You know, I love this, but it wasn't always so. Before the 19th century in the West, as you write, displaying the body was central to displaying masculinity, specifically showing some leg. Oh, yeah, like men in courtly situations, they wore culottes or they wore breeches and then they wore stockings. Oh yeah, kilts of course. And like when he, in the painting John Trumbull did of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, John Adams is showing his calves. Like if he can do it, you can in your next, do your next RFP talking about your KPIs, I swear. No, it's really true. Like what happened?

52:08Carol Massar:Is it just because I mean you get into, I really love like industrialization, suits becoming cheaper, like people could afford more yeah showing that you're not showing that you're not a laborer right right that you're you're not working in in you know you're actually working in an office it's a class thing you guys see how easy it is to write 2 000 words about this stuff it we are blown away used to be like wearing clothes that recognize that you lived in a world and used your body was like for poor people it was like only serfs did that uh you know courtly people wore corsets they wore really restrictive clothing that was like almost you couldn't move in at all and pretended that you weren't in like a boiling hot world.

52:45And then that, when the founding fathers started America, they basically, it was a lot of white men who were like, oh, that's too fancy. Like that, we have to reject European prippery, like French war courts. We have to wear black suits. And that became the American uniform at work, especially through the industrial revolution when like suits became cheap to make. And that actually spread around the world. So in a lot of countries everywhere, people in offices are wearing dark suits and it's been remarkably unchanged. changed. We're not wearing wigs though. We're not wearing, you know, delicate shirt coats.

53:17Yeah. So it could be worse is what I'm saying. That's true.

53:20Carol Massar:I mean, I don't understand. Like, you know, we went to casual Fridays and like people were wearing khakis, you know, the pandemic. And then we came back to work and we're still wearing our yoga pants. And, you know, when the runaways show me, I don't know if we have this picture and producers, I don't know if we can show that. If you didn't put this out, we're going to have to talk after the show. But when Runway starts showing guys in here. Blazers with shorts. Well, she's talking about different pictures. There's a, yeah, there's a Yves Saint Laurent menswear look from this summer where the model is wearing truly like a nightmare, like an actual nightmare outfit that I've actually had a nightmare about.

53:54He's walking down the runway with a big blazer, sort of a sweater top, and no pants. No pants. You could maybe describe him as shorts, but it's really like more of an undergarment. We've all had that dream. with Chris Rauser, editor-at-large of Bloomberg Pursuits, the only man we know who can both write 2 ,000 words on wearing shorts to the office and then wear shorts when it's above 90 degrees. Yes, Carol?

54:17Carol Massar:You know what I find interesting is you also talk to people in the fashion industry, and there was one person who said, when I was an intern at Women's Wear Daily in Paris as an 18-year-old in my exit interview, I was told by my editor that it was inappropriate for me to wear shorts to work. It was sweltering in Paris. But I would think in like anything connected with fashion would be like anything kind of goes. I mean it's so much about respect right? Like if you're a journalist and I want to really say this like I once wore sandals to work when I was a young reporter at the New York Daily News and someone talked to me about it and they were like because we had to run out and interview people that something happened in an emergency and it was disrespectful and that is real.

54:54Like if you're meeting with people how you present yourself if you're formal it talks about how you respect yourself how you respect the people you meet with. That people that really sticks with people but if you're just hanging out at your desk or you're moving around the city. I don't know, guys. It's hot. Dress for the job you have. Listen, if you do what you love, you never work a day in your life. You get to write 2 ,000 words about wearing shorts to work. It's not work. Are we going to talk about luxury shopping?

55:20Carol Massar:Maybe we have to move to Norway because they kind of get it, right? Yes. Why is everybody talks about Norway right now? Well, I know. It seems like a place to be, but they're kind of inside, outside, right? Environment. Like, they just kind of embrace it all. Yeah, like Bermuda, they wear shorts. Norway, they have. This sort of metaphor for life called frulitzliv. Frulitzliv. I always get it wrong. Sounds good. Which is basically like outdoor living is life. And the more you recognize the world and your place in it and the more you spend time passing through it, the better you are mentally and physically.

55:54Norway. Oh, we got the shorts pick, I guess?

55:57Carol Massar:Oh, do we have it? You know, I went to Norway. Can we bring it up? Maybe like nine years ago, ten years ago with my wife. For those who are listening on radio, that is the picture that Chris said. Yves Saint Laurent? Yves Saint Laurent, yeah. Yeah, and it's a guy with a big blazer, but not much else, right? Yeah, we clearly still haven't figured out what to wear with socks. But there's a whole other thing. Let's talk about luxury shopping. Well, I was in Norway and this whole idea of outdoor culture. There's a lot, at least there was back then. You were literally allowed to camp anywhere on the side of the road.

56:29So you'd be driving through these amazing roads and people would just be pulled over. And everyone's, it's not like campsites in the US. I mean, everyone is so respectful of the outdoors. They're so respectful of their surroundings. But it's just widely accepted that you can pull over and you can sleep outside.

56:44Carol Massar:Are we going to tease this one other story? Yeah, let's tease this other story. So if I can't get like a Chanel bag that I'm coveting, I just have to go to the airport? I wouldn't say you just have to go to the airport. But airport shopping, you always go by those boutiques, whether luxury or not. Like you walk by Chanel at the airport, you're like, there's never anyone in there. But actually they do a big business. A lot of them are owned by these big sort of mega companies that run them all. So it's not necessarily like Brooks Brothers owning the Brooks Brothers store. But they're small footprints and they do a lot of business.

57:15It doesn't have to be a lot of people in there. And at stores like Chanel and Hermes, if you have a good relationship with them, they can actually get you good stuff. Not a Birkin bag, but like good stuff. And if you can get someone's phone number, they'll like call ahead, order stuff, have it ready for you. You just pick it up tax-free. Is that wild? I'm always going to airports being like, who is in here buying stuff?

57:33Carol Massar:Because they do always look empty. Yeah, but people spend a lot more time in airports because you're so worried about getting caught up in lines and stuff. So people are in airports for a long time, and they just shop. I love that you call ahead and be like, I'm going to be flying into the airport in like two weeks. And they hold stuff for you. Unbelievable. They wouldn't let you carry it on, Carol. You're very funny. But I have a good friend who I travel with, a colleague who might carry it on for me. Chris Rauser, shorts, long pants, we love you. Check it out, everybody. This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast.

58:08Available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday afternoons from 2 to 5 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.

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59:11Policies provided by Hartford Fire Insurance Company and its property and casualty affiliates, Hartford, Connecticut. These days, it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn, every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agent's identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta, you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent.

59:44Secure any agent. Okta secures AI.

59:47Carol Massar:As industries evolve faster than ever, companies need an environment that accelerates strategic growth, and Michigan delivers on that promise. From emerging startups to global enterprises, Michigan offers what executives value most, a resilient, innovative ecosystem, diverse communities that attract top talent, and a quality of life that supports work-life balance. With our unified Team Michigan approach, businesses scale faster and compete at the highest level. Michigan, pure opportunity. Seize your opportunity at michiganbusiness.org.

From the publisher

The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy. Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said policymakers at the central bank have no tolerance for high inflation, reiterating a vow to tame price growth that has been elevated for five years.
“The members of our committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation,” Warsh said Tuesday in testimony before lawmakers. “And we share a resolute commitment to restoring price stability.”

The new Fed chairman has emphasized policymakers’ commitment to tackling inflation since he took office in May, and said the number one objective is to get monetary policy right.

Warsh’s appearance before the panel comes amid warnings from several other Fed policymakers that higher interest rates may be needed to curb inflation. The testimony was prepared prior to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ release of fresh inflation data that showed consumer prices declined in June for the first time in six years and a key gauge of underlying inflation was little changed.

On this episode, Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec speak with:

  • Yelena Shuylatyeva, Senior US Economist, The Conference Board on Warsh testimony, CPI reaction and PPI
  • Geoff Karren, Energy Group Capital Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager
  • Udesh Jha, Chief Risk Officer, Kalshi AND Katherine “Kat” Doherty, Bloomberg News Finance Reporter on Kalshi Ramps Up Effort to Build Markets for AI Computing Power
  • Chris Rovzar, Bloomberg Pursuits Editor-at-Large on Wearing Shorts to Work? That Should Be OK in 2026

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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