In short
The episode covers three legal stories. First, the Justice Department indicted the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) on federal fraud charges, alleging SPLC improperly raised millions from donors to secretly pay leaders/insiders of extremist groups for information. Professor John Coffey (Columbia Law School, white-collar crime expert) argues the conduct resembles lawful undercover surveillance and that the key allegations are about donor fraud, not illegality in using informants. He says the indictment is thin/vague and may be dismissed early; he also questions money-laundering and bank-fraud theories, noting banks were told to change accounts. Second, AT&T and Verizon challenge FCC fines over illegal sale of customer location data, focusing on Seventh Amendment jury-trial rights after SEC v. Jarkese. Professor Daniel Lyons (Boston College Law) says the Supreme Court’s concessions likely reduce binding effect, but the ruling could reshape other agencies’ penalty processes. Third, Selective Service will automatically register eligible men 18–25 starting December 2026 under a National Defense Authorization Act amendment. Professor Jeremy Kessler (Columbia Law) explains automatic registration’s mechanics, risks, and how a draft would still require Congress to authorize induction and Selective Service to classify registrants.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOSPLC Indictment Overview
2:14 to 3:21
Explore the recent indictment of the Southern Poverty Law Center.
“The civil rights nonprofit has for years faced scrutiny from Republicans who claim it's unfairly targeted right-wing organizations.”
Expert Analysis on SPLC's Actions
3:21 to 4:35
Professor John Coffey discusses the legal implications of the SPLC's actions.
“That's until FBI Director Kash Patel severed the relationship last year.”
Investigating the Fraud Allegations
4:35 to 6:29
The conversation delves into the fraud allegations against the SPLC.
“And by the way, the FBI does the same thing.”
Political Implications of SPLC's Indictment
6:29 to 8:36
Discussing the political context surrounding the SPLC's indictment.
“It depends on the judge handling the case.”
FCC Fines and Supreme Court Case
9:42 to 14:00
Analyzing the FCC's actions against AT&T and Verizon regarding location data.
“Work pressure, financial stress, changing relationships, and traditional expectations around masculinity can quietly wear men down, often without clear warning signs.”
FCC Fines and Procedural Protections
14:00 to 18:54
Explore the implications of FCC fines and the legal protections available to corporations.
“I mean, is this just a strategy to recoup the fines or do they really mean it?”
Implications for Other Federal Agencies
18:54 to 21:58
Discuss how the FCC's decisions could affect other federal agencies and civil penalties.
“And I think many of the justices recognize that going forward, the adjudication process is going to be very different than it was in the past.”
Challenges to Administrative Power
21:58 to 24:41
Examine the implications of the court's ruling on the power of administrative agencies.
“So I read that this decision could have implications for other federal agencies that assess similar civil penalties before holding a jury trial, even though the FCC has made those concessions here.”
Military Draft Registration Changes
26:52 to 28:03
Understand the new automatic military draft registration for young men in the U.S.
“eligible men between the ages of 18 and 25 for the military draft starting in December.”
Understanding Automatic Draft Registration
28:03 to 29:24
Learn about the new amendment to the Military Selective Service Act that changes draft registration procedures.
“And is this because a new law was passed?”
Show all 15 chapters
Debating the Merits of Automatic Registration
29:24 to 31:19
Explore the implications of automatic draft registration and the potential downsides.
“So the obligation was on the individual to affirmatively register.”
Historical Context and Current Tensions
31:19 to 32:41
Discuss the historical background of draft laws and current geopolitical tensions influencing military policy.
“But your question, wouldn't it be better to maintain the affirmative obligation, I think is a very smart one because there's a downside.”
Casualty Rates and Military Strategy
32:41 to 34:50
Examine casualty rates in current conflicts and their implications for military strategy and draft policies.
“I would say that five or 10 years ago, I think when you started to get a new round of interest in national service, not necessarily military service, but, you know, some Democrats and some Republicans have floated.”
The Modern Military Landscape
34:50 to 37:36
Analyze the changing dynamics of military conflict and the challenges of maintaining a volunteer force.
“And one view is the casualty rates in Ukraine and Russia are just because like, it's like culture and geography.”
Process of Draft Reinstatement
37:36 to 41:27
Learn about the legislative and bureaucratic processes required to reinstate the military draft.
“That is not what we're seeing in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00This message is brought to you by Apple Card. Apple Card members can earn unlimited daily cash back on everyday purchases wherever they shop. This means you could be earning daily cash on just about anything, like a slice of pizza from your local pizza place or a latte from the corner coffee shop. Apply for Apple Card in the Wallet app to see your credit limit offer in minutes. Subject to credit approval, Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Salt Lake City branch. Terms and more at AppleCard.com. If you follow markets, you know the value of long-term thinking. You plan, you diversify, you prepare for volatility.
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2:07The Southern Poverty Law Center has positioned itself as the country's preeminent hate group watchdog, putting out an influential list of hate groups. The civil rights nonprofit has for years faced scrutiny from Republicans who claim it's unfairly targeted right-wing organizations. And this week, the Justice Department indicted the SPLC on federal fraud charges, alleging it improperly raised millions of dollars to secretly pay leaders of hate groups for inside information, according to acting attorney general todd blanche the money was passed from splc to one sham account to a second sham account and then loaded onto prepaid cards to give to the members of the extremist groups the splc said it's outraged by the false allegations its ceo brian fair said today the federal government has been weaponized to dismantle the rights of our nation's most vulnerable people and any organization like ours that tries to stand in the breach.
3:14My guest is an expert in white-collar crime, Professor John Coffey of Columbia Law School. Jack, until recently, the SPLC was working with the FBI to provide the intel that was gathered by its informants. That's until FBI Director Kash Patel severed the relationship last year. Is there anything illegal about hiring informants the way that they did?
4:06That's not what they're alleging. They're alleging fraud on the donors. That's what they keep saying again and again. And fraud on the donors, I think you could put half the donors on the stand, and they would testify that they were very happy the money was used to get sources within violent organizations to tell the SPLC what they were doing. I don't think there is any reason my nonprofit organization can't undertake surveillance trying to reveal to the public the behavior of violent and extreme organizations. And by the way, the FBI does the same thing. They pay even larger amounts to informants over the years to infiltrate organizations on both the left and the right.
4:45So then you don't think this charge that the SPLC was funding extremist groups will hold up? Well, you're allowed to fund extremist groups. If you want to give money to any party, including the Communist Party, you're allowed to do that. They gave them money to their field agents. The field agents may have passed some of that on to the Ku Klux Klan, but they were basically paying people to serve as undercover agents, which is dangerous. There can be reprisals and retribution, and people don't do anything dangerous for that being well compensated. Moreover, although they took about a million dollars, these were payments made annually over nine years.
5:23And if you divide a million dollars by nine, it's a more reasonable number to have paid an agent to do something that was dangerous. The indictment also charges bank fraud, alleging that the SPLC created bank accounts for fictitious entities and used those to send money from donors to informants. Lots of people do this. I think you can find cases where that might be criminal if it was part of a scheme to defraud. But no one is defrauding the bank. And the bank said, you have to change this. It doesn't look appropriate. And they did change it. They cooperate. I don't think there's any real bank fraud here.
6:00That is, I don't think this was material information to the bank. It was organizations that were really non-existent, but I don't know that there was any fraud committed on the bank. And what about the money laundering charge? Now, money laundering can only be a crime if you engaged in a crime and take the proceeds of that crime and move it through the financial system. If there is no crime, there is no money laundering. So do you think the Southern Poverty Law Center could get this indictment dismissed before trial? I don't think it'll be upheld. It depends on the judge handling the case. Some judges will let the case go forward to see if evidence is accumulated and looks promising a trial.
6:40But I do think there is a good chance that this could be dismissed at the outset. I've read lots of indictments. Department of Justice usually writes strong, specific, well-reasoned indictments. This is vague and it wanders all around. I think it's a very thin and poorly written indictment. It won't surprise anyone to say this appears to be part of a pattern in which the Trump administration has gone against its political enemies. You can talk about cases that have been dismissed, including against the attorney general of New York State and other persons. And they are still trying to pursue a case against the chairman of the Federal Reserve.
7:15Anytime there's a political enemy, there tends to be a criminal investigation of them. I mean, the SPLC has been the target of Republicans for years, and House Republicans held a hearing centered on the SPLC in December. It's quite possible the Southern Poverty Law Center does controversial things. That's not criminal. You're going to have to show that they defrauded some victim. They've been doing this for 30 years, so it's nothing new. It's been clear they've been getting inside information about these organizations. They didn't tell the various organizations they were looking into that they were conducting surveillance of them.
7:52But no one does. The FBI does this at a much greater volume, and they don't tell people we're conducting surveillance. And you brought up Fed Chair Powell. What do you think about the investigation into him? Well, I think that's another example of what looks like a political retaliation. You aren't doing what I want you to do. Chairman Powell isn't even criticizing the president. He's not engaged in political criticism. He's simply doing what he thinks is his obligation, which is to retain interest rates at a level that protects the economy from rapid inflation and disaster. And he's facing reprisal, criminal reprisal, for rather strange and not yet carefully spelled out activities in connection with the renovation of the Federal Reserve Bank.
8:35Thanks so much for taking the time, Jack. That's Professor John Coffey of Columbia Law School. This message is brought to you by Apple Card. Apple Card members can earn unlimited daily cash back on everyday purchases wherever they shop. This means you could be earning daily cash on just about anything, like a slice of pizza from your local pizza place or a latte from the corner coffee shop. Apply for Apple Card in the Wallet app to see your credit limit offer in minutes. Subject to credit approval, Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA, Salt Lake City Branch. Terms and more at AppleCard.com.
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9:56In Season 3 of The Visibility Gap, Dr. Guy Winch and his guests explore how these pressures show up, how to spot them earlier, and how men can access meaningful support. Listen to the new season of The Visibility Gap, a podcast presented by Cigna Healthcare. AT &T and Verizon are trying to recoup the$104 million they paid in penalties after the FCC said they had illegally sold customers' location data. The companies are challenging the FCC's process as unconstitutional at the Supreme Court, saying the fines were assessed without giving them the right to a jury trial. Most of the justices appeared skeptical.
10:40Chief Justice John Roberts told AT &T's lawyer it seemed like a PR problem. Counsel, I wonder if, though, at the end of the day, you're really just talking about a PR problem, right? You're just saying they're big letters, the language said we did something bad, and that's so everybody has to pay so they don't get, you know, a bad PR. And I'm just wondering, in terms of the substantive legal issue, though, you are not obligated to pay. until you get a jury. And Justice Amy Coney Barrett said, just don't pay the fines. Mr. Wall, if they are final and if they have, like in your view, this effect, why do you have to pay them?
11:21But surprise, surprise, the FCC made a concession that amounts to a win for the companies. The Justice Department's lawyer, Vivek Suri, said companies don't have to pay FCC penalties right away. And the FCC can't try to collect a fine, add interest, or punish a company for not immediately paying. The agency cannot start collecting the money as the SEC could in the Jarkisi scheme. It has to go to court in order to collect the money. Second, there's no penalty or punishment for failing to pay that order. And third, that interest doesn't start trueing until the penalty becomes. Justice Brett Kavanaugh called that a win for the companies and suggested they might be able to get their money back.
12:10Joining me is an expert in telecommunications and internet law, Daniel Lyons, a professor at Boston College Law School. Daniel, explain the issue the court was considering about the right to a jury trial. Historically, when a regulated entity at the FCC violates FCC rules, the FCC has reserved the right to adjudicate these cases in-house. So in this case, AT &T and Verizon were alleged to have, I guess the right way to say it is, not taken enough care of customer data that were shared with third parties. And so they were held in violation of a particular part of the Telecommunications Act and were assessed between the two of them a fine of$100 million.
12:53So the question that has been at the center of this case from the beginning is, were they entitled to a jury trial on those facts? At the time that the FCC proceeding began, most of the admin law universe thought it was okay for agencies to handle these cases in-house rather than having to go to court. But a couple of years ago, the Supreme Court issued a case called SEC v. Jarkese, which said that in certain cases, agency adjudication of liability outside of the court system violated the Seventh Amendment, which says that in cases at law where a matter in controversy is more than$20, that the defendant has a right to a trial before jury.
13:32And of course, there's no juries at agencies. So in the case of this AT &T and Verizon fines, AT &T and Verizon both challenged the proceeding after Jarkazy, alleging that like the SEC proceeding to Jarkazy, these proceedings were analogous to suit at court of law and therefore should not have been handled in-house. Instead, they should have been tried by the agency before a jury in court. So going outside the legal questions for a minute, I find it hard to believe that those two carriers would fare well before a jury over claims of failure to protect customer data. I mean, is this just a strategy to recoup the fines or do they really mean it?
14:18It's a good question. I think the short answer is yes, because when you go before the court system, you get a number of procedural protections that you wouldn't get before the agency. So the federal rules of evidence apply, right, or the state analog if you're in a state law case. There are somewhat analogous protections in some agency adjudications, but not all of them, and they're never as robust as what you get in a federal court. More importantly, you get a decision maker that's not an employee of the agency, right? Even in the most formal of agency adjudications, they're being decided by an administrative law judge.
14:50The agency takes some efforts internally to make sure that the adjudication side of the house is different from the enforcement side of the house. But that's, I think many critics would say, a pale imitation of the constitutional separation of powers that we require outside of the admin law context. So there was a lot of discussion in the Supreme Court arguments about whether the FCC's fines are binding or non-binding, particularly Justice Kavanaugh and Justice Gorsuch pressed on that. Explain why that's important. Yeah, so it's a little bit nuanced because the agency's position has changed over the course of the proceeding.
15:30Justice Kavanaugh had a great quip that Verizon's reply brief started by saying the government is in retreat. Kavanaugh agreed with that and so do I. When the case began, the agency's view was there's no Seventh Amendment problem with this, but that was before Jarkhazy. After Jarkhazy, the agency's view was the Seventh Amendment is satisfied because even though we're deciding liability and issuing a fine in-house, the entities are not required to pay immediately. So after an FCC proceeding, AT &T has two choices, right? So assume they are found, you violated the law and you owe a$47 million fine.
16:06AT &T gets two choices. It can pay the fine and appeal the liability decision before the DC circuit. Or it can do nothing, basically say, come at me and wait to see if the Department of Justice sues on behalf of the agency to collect the fine. In the latter case, the trial is de novo before a court. But in the former case, right, going straight to if the agency pays the fine and goes straight to the court of appeal, the court of appeal doesn't have a jury. And so it's essentially waiving the jury trial right in order to be able to clear its name. So AT &T was of the view that this is sort of a hopeless choice, right?
16:42I can either challenge the fact that I violated the law, in which case I have to waive my jury right, or I can sit around with the sort of Damocles hanging over my head forever and see if the DOJ ever comes after me. So at the Fifth Circuit and then leading up to the Supreme Court's taking a certiorari, the agency's position was the fact that you have the option of waiting and seeing if we'll sue you is enough to guarantee your jury trial right because you'll get a trial de novo eventually, even though you already have been basically tried before the agency ex ante. There are two, I think, potential problems with this.
17:21One is you're not guaranteed a jury trial right, right? You're guaranteed a jury trial right if and only if the DOJ chooses to pursue the fine. Now, you may say, well, that's fine. If the DOJ doesn't pursue the fine, you don't have to give up the money. But the liability ruling would still stand. And a finding that a carrier has violated the law can have collateral consequences. A, PR issues, right? Big headlines, AT &T mishandles customer information. But B, it can affect future FCC proceedings. So wireless carriers operate pursuant to a license to use the spectrum in order to be able to send the radio waves to and from your cell phone.
17:59Those licenses are issued by the government for a fixed period. And when the FCC decides to renew those licenses, it takes into consideration, were you a good citizen? And willful violations of the law can count against you. It can be a grounds for the FCC to say, we will not renew your license going forward. So I think the agency eventually realized the difficulties of this argument as well, because by the time they were before the Supreme Court in an argument yesterday, the agency's position was that what happens at the agency is completely not binding. It's essentially the equivalent of a charging document.
18:32The FCC has investigated this and is now authorizing the DOJ to go after the entity on these grounds and for this amount of money. Only if the DOJ then chooses to pursue it in court is AT &T ever liable and ever potentially have to pay the fine. So there's a sense in which no matter what happens in the opinion, AT &T and Verizon have won a huge victory already. And I think many of the justices recognize that going forward, the adjudication process is going to be very different than it was in the past. The basic question left over is kind of what possibly can be the preclusive effect of those not binding orders in collateral proceedings.
19:09As to the question about whether AT &T and Verizon's Seventh Amendment rights were violated, did you think a majority of the justices felt they weren't violated? I will say the answer is a little bit more nuanced. I think the agency has conceded that under the way the agency did business up until this case, it would have been a Seventh Amendment violation, which, like I said, I think is already a huge win for AT &T. I think the question going forward is, does the agency's disclaimer of any bindingness by the FCC order solve that problem? It seems like much of the court said yes. If we accept the government's concession that none of these orders are binding unless and until the DOJ seeks to enforce them in court, then it's probably not a Seventh Amendment issue.
19:56I think you're probably going to get a majority on that. But I think the advocates were still disputing kind of what not binding means. The FCC wanted to hold on to the fact that if we find facts in the earlier proceeding, we might be able to rely upon those in a later proceeding because the later proceeding would also be subject to judicial review before a jury. And I think AT &T was uncomfortable making even that concession. But this feels like a minor issue in the grand scheme of the case. Question about whether AT &T will be able to get back what they paid. Wade Kavanaugh suggested they were duped by the FCC and they should get their money back?
20:35Yeah. So up until the grant of certiorari in this case, the FCC was under the view that we ordered you to pay this fine. And even though we have to wait for the DOJ to enforce it, if you want to seek your right for immediate appeal, you have to pay. This is under DC circuit precedent. If now the agency is changing its position and saying, actually, although the order said this is a fine, it, you have to pay it. We didn't really mean it. Justice Kavanaugh's concern was, well, AT &T then paid because they thought they had to, and now you're saying they don't. I think the FCC had a good response to that, which is, well, we told them they always had the option to wait and not pay and then see if the DOJ enforces.
21:12But also, if you think they've been duped, that's probably a good question to answer on remand, right? So raise the question, then remand it back to the district court for further fact-finding on that question. I think that's probably fair. I mean, what are the chances that they'll get the money back? I actually think it sounds pretty good at this point. Really? I guess the key question is, is the DOJ then going to go ahead and file a separate lawsuit, in which case we will get exactly where you started in your questioning, which would be a trial before a jury of AT &T and Verizon customers about whether their information was mishandled.
21:42It may or may not go the way the carriers want them to. I think that's sort of the next chapter in this case. Right now, they're trying to get out of a nearly certain fine by the agency. And it seems like regardless of what the court does, they've gotten a concession that the fine is currently not binding on them. So I think they're going to try to get their money back. Good luck with that. So I read that this decision could have implications for other federal agencies that assess similar civil penalties before holding a jury trial, even though the FCC has made those concessions here. Does the decision still have those implications for other agencies?
22:16It does, because the key issue, I think, the problem for the FCC is the statute doesn't say anything about it being not binding. In fact, the statute says quite the opposite. It says that you have been assessed and uses much more mandatory language. It's language that lots of agency enforcement statutes use. And if the Supreme Court says in order to avoid a constitutional Seventh Amendment problem, we're going to interpret this statute to only be not binding, as the FCC suggests, that's going to have a ripple effect to many other agencies as well. What it does is it turns what is right now in a largely in-house alternative, a cheaper alternative to going to court in order to settle disputes, to be much more like a prosecutor deciding whether or not to charge a case.
23:00The effect of this is going to be to move the question of whether a party is actually liable away from agencies and more toward courts. So right now, agencies adjudicate a lot of cases in-house as an alternative to going to court because it's cheaper, it's faster. If this statute and several others like it are interpreted as making those agency decisions only not binding, unless and until the DOJ sues to enforce them in court, it's going to make that cheap, quick resolution of enforcement fines much less likely to happen. So agencies will stop sort of adjudicating many of these cases, or at least fewer, I would say, some of them will still handle in-house, but more of them will be moved into the court system.
23:41Do you see this case as a challenge to the power of administrative agencies? This is consistent with the broader trend in administrative law that we've been seeing for a long time with this Supreme Court. Agencies have always been uncomfortable entities for folks who believe in an originalist conception of government because the separation of powers between the executive, the legislative, and the judiciary are all mashed together in an agency. It feels like the long-term project of this court has been to try to unwind those and make agencies much more into what they appear to be on the government org chart, right, a branch of the executive, as opposed to entities that mix the powers and violation of separation of powers.
24:26Giacchese was a big move in that direction, and I think this decision will probably advance that ball a little bit more. That was a great explanation of the conservative justice's attitude toward the so-called administrative state. Thanks so much for joining me, Daniel. That's Professor Daniel Lyons of Boston College Law School. Everyone has been there. Your team's feedback is scattered across emails, chats, and sticky notes. It's a mess. But PDF Spaces and Adobe Acrobat gives you one collaborative workspace to streamline every file and comment. So, if you need six departments to finally agree on a proposal, do that with Acrobat.
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26:50public.com slash disclosures. The federal government will begin automatically registering eligible men between the ages of 18 and 25 for the military draft starting in December. The measure was included in the National Defense Authorization Act that President Trump signed last December. This change is getting more attention in light of the U.S. war with Iran and raising questions about whether it's setting the stage for a draft. Joining me is Jeremy Kessler, a professor at Columbia Law School. He has a book coming out entitled Conscription and Constitutional Change in 20th Century America. What is the situation right now with registering for the draft?
27:35The new law hasn't gone into effect yet. So right now, men between the ages of 18 and 25 are still obligated to send in a registration card or sign up online for the draft. But as of December 2026, what's supposed to happen is the Selective Service System will issue some regulations that implement automatic registration. What that will mean, starting at the end of this year, is that the Selective Service System is going to draw on Social Security Administration and DHS databases to essentially get a picture of all young men in the United States between the ages of 18 and 25, and will automatically register them for the draft.
28:20And that's the new thing. And is this because a new law was passed? It's an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act, which is a kind of omnibus piece of legislation that covers many aspects of military preparedness. And it basically just amends effectively the Military Selective Service Act, which is this law that's been on the books in various forms for decades. And indeed, a lot of it goes back to 1940, when we had the kind of first peacetime draft law prior to World War II. So that law has been amended and modified countless times under different circumstances. And what this amendment does is it just says, instead of having, since 1980, which is when President Carter reinstated the registration requirement, every guy in the United States, when they turned 18, with a few exceptions, was obligated by law to register for the draft.
29:18So that's what I did when I was 18. That's what most folks have done. You have to mail in a card or later when we had the internet, you had to go through an online portal. So the obligation was on the individual to affirmatively register. If they didn't affirmatively register, they were technically committing a federal crime. No one really got prosecuted for not registering since this 1980 requirement. But the way they would kind of get you is if you applied for federal loans, federal student loans, or if you applied for an actual job with the federal government, you'd be denied the loans or denied the job if you hadn't actually registered for the draft.
29:56So that was a primary enforcement mechanism. What this amendment to the Military Selective Service Act does is says there's no more affirmative obligation. You don't have to take any step to register. We will register you ourselves. Why the change? Isn't it better to have people registering themselves than having the government looking through databases and then at some point perhaps trying to track them down? I think that's a great question. So one thing I will say is that this push for automatic registration has been, I won't say a priority, but has been a goal of a bipartisan group of folks who are interested in kind of streamlining and mainstreaming national service.
30:38So I wouldn't think of the automatic registration requirement simply as like a Trump initiative. This has been debated several times over the past many years. And one way of looking at it is just this is more efficient. Why require, you know, when you turn 18, lots of things are going on. It's your 18th birthday. Why expect 18-year-olds to like figure out, oh, I have to send in a letter or I have to go online to register for the draft. Like the federal government knows you exist, either because you have a social security number or because if you're an immigrant, you've had a point of contact with the immigration authorities for the most part.
31:18So why not streamline this? That's the nice story. But your question, wouldn't it be better to maintain the affirmative obligation, I think is a very smart one because there's a downside. Even if you accept that streamlining automatic registration makes sense, and even if you think that the ability to draft people is a good idea, there's a downside. And here's the downside with automatic registration. Okay, so now everyone's registered. Great. From the standpoint of, like, you're a military planner. You want to know the total population of people you could potentially draft. They're registered.
31:53How do you draft them? The issue I'm getting at is just because you know that a person exists because you have their social security number and you know they're 18 or you have their immigration records doesn't mean you know where they live, doesn't mean you know how to get in contact with them. So I just want to flag that the case for doing this right is efficiency. But I'm not sure those efficiencies will pay off if you actually start to try to classify and induct these automatically registered people. because they have no idea that this is even going on. And I think many people, when they hear about this, are going to question why they're doing this.
32:34Are they thinking about reinstating a military draft? I think that's a fair question. I would say that five or 10 years ago, I think when you started to get a new round of interest in national service, not necessarily military service, but, you know, some Democrats and some Republicans have floated. Wouldn't it be great if everyone had some national service obligation, whether that's like a Teach for America type thing or military service, what have you. As those folks made those kinds of arguments, I think you also saw this more technocratic idea of automatic registration. We should at least know what the full population of people who might be subject to such a national service requirement are.
33:17All of that, when that was going on 10 years ago or so, I don't think that meant we were moving back towards a draft. Today, however, I think things are quite different. So in the current context with conflict with Russia, with China, and obviously most genetically right now with Iran, I think it would be silly to not interpret this move to automatic registration in the context of like an increasingly bellicose global environment. That's one. Two, and this is a point I've made in a recent forthcoming article in Boston University Law Review, I don't think the general public is aware, and I actually don't think most politicians are aware, that within a variety of military and national security think tanks that have been observing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, for instance, and that most recently have been observing what's going on in Iran, I don't think folks are aware that there's a growing sense that actually, if we were to get into a land war, even in a limited land war, with any of these significant powers, Russia, Iran, or China, and maybe even less significant ones, we probably would have to go turn back on the draft.
34:28Now, that's a controversial view. I'm reading the white papers that the Army War College is putting out, that the Center for New American Security is putting out over the last couple of years. What they're doing is they're looking at the casualty rates in the war between Ukraine and Russia. And they are seeing extremely high casualty rates. And there are two views about what those casualty rates mean. And one view is the casualty rates in Ukraine and Russia are just because like, it's like culture and geography. That's how Ukrainians and Russians fight. You know, they're just, it's an existential struggle to the death.
35:04So they're not being very careful in terms of exposing their soldiers, and particularly their conscriptive soldiers to fire. That's one view. And if that's your view, then the casualty rates in Ukraine and Russia, the Ukraine-Russia conflict don't really, are not relevant for gaming out how we would fight a land war in Iran, for instance. The other view, which is the view that experts at the Army War College and Center for New American Security have recently floated, is this is not just about culture and geography, that the high casualty rates are related to the use of drones, are related to the use of various communications and surveillance technologies that are basically all making it easier to strike military units that aren't even on the front lines.
35:53You know, you could try to have a war where you're limiting casualties and it might not be up to you, you know, if the enemy can kind of hit you with drones and so forth. If that's right, if that second interpretation is right, then we're going to need a draft because we actually have a pretty small army right now. The volunteer force is small. The Air Force met its recruiting targets for 2026 ahead of the September 30th deadline. But is that unusual? Has recruiting been difficult? Recruitment has, you know, is always a challenge to some extent. The easiest way to recruit people is to pay them more.
36:33That's obviously, you know, there tend to be budgetary obstacles to that. But the real reason why the kind of force in arms we have is quite small, historically speaking, is because the kind of the new paradigm really since the 90s, late 80s, 90s for military conflict is we're not going to use a lot of soldiers. We're going to rely on air power. We're going to rely on highly trained, you know, expert war fighters. we're not going to get into protracted battles with these enormous casualty rates where you're just kind of throwing soldiers into a gap and having them be shot at. So the whole idea was we don't need a big army because we don't want to fight that kind of war anymore.
37:28What the high casualty rates in the Ukrainian-Russian borders suggest is you might not get to decide that. Right. The idea of the kind of modern military planners is we have highly trained professional units that actually go in and with a lot of air power and they get in and they get out. That is not what we're seeing in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. The Ukrainians try to do that, but they can't really because they quickly get exposed to drones, artillery. It's harder to kind of keep your own soldiers safe. In any event, it's only an analogy to the Ukraine-Russian conflict. But we've certainly designed our current military to be small and nimble, not to be capable of absorbing huge casualties.
38:17In a March 8th interview, the White House press secretary was asked what she would tell mothers who were worried about the draft returning. She said something to the effect of Trump doesn't remove any options from the table, but there are no current plans to reinstate the draft. But what would be the process if Trump decided to reinstate the draft? Well, so the first thing is that Congress would have to vote to authorize induction authority. So right now, the Military Selective Service Act exists. And to go back to where the interview began, there's now going to be automatic registration. So, you know, millions of folks will be registered for the draft.
39:02That doesn't mean they can be drafted. Congress would have to vote to turn back on induction authority, which means the Department of Defense would set a monthly draft call. You know, the number of soldiers they want drafted in a given month. And then the selective service system, the bureaucracy, would have to rapidly expand. And it would somehow have to get notice to everyone registered. to either answer a series of questions online or, more traditionally, to go to a Selective Service office to be interviewed and examined. There needs to be some kind of interview, whether in person or online, in order to classify all these registered people.
39:50They're registered, but they're not classified. What classified means is, are you available for military service? Or are you entitled to some kind of deferment as defined in the statute? Deferments might be you're enrolled in a program of higher education that's important for the national interest. It could be that you are the sole provider for your family and you have young dependents. There's a host or it could be that you're a conscientious objector or a minister. There are a host of statutorily provided for deferments. But we don't know who's entitled to what because we haven't classified people in 60 years.
40:29So the first thing that would need to happen is a very rapid effort to classify these millions of automatically registered people. Once they're classified, you identify the population who is what's called 1A, which means available for immediate induction. That means they're physically, mentally fit and they're not entitled to some other deferment or exemption. And then you have to order them to report for induction into the armed forces. You could, with a lot of bureaucratic labor, maybe do all of that in a couple of months. But historically, what it takes is a real national mobilization. And what I mean by that, it's not enough just to have the bureaucrats hired and ready to go.
41:14You actually need the American people to be essentially putting pressure on their sons to show up. Certainly there's not a national commitment right now, anything but. Thanks so much, Jeremy. That's Columbia Law School professor Jeremy Kessler. And that's it for this edition of the Bloomberg Law Show. Remember, you can always get the latest legal news on our Bloomberg Law podcast. You can find them on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and at www.bloomberg.com slash podcast slash law. And remember to tune into the Bloomberg Law Show every weeknight at 10 p.m. Wall Street time. I'm June Grosso, and you're listening to Bloomberg.
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From the publisher
Professor John Coffee of Columbia Law School, an expert in white-collar crime, discusses the Justice Department’s indictment of the Southern Poverty Law Center, a civil rights nonprofit. Then Professor Daniel Lyons of Boston College Law School, a telecommunications law expert, discusses the Supreme Court oral arguments over FCC fines of AT&T and Verizon. And Professor Jeremy Kessler of Columbia Law School, a constitutional law expert, discusses the military draft. June Grasso hosts.
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