In short
The episode (Bloomberg Law with June Grosso) covers two things: (1) the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision reinstating the murder conviction of Pedro Hernandez in the 1979 kidnapping and killing of 6-year-old Etan Patz, and (2) upcoming Supreme Court rulings likely announced soon.
Guest
Paul Callen, former Manhattan prosecutor and criminal defense attorney (counsel at Edelman and Edelman). He explains the case’s timeline: Hernandez was convicted in 2017 (25 years to life), later reversed by the Second Circuit due to a jury-instruction issue about whether subsequent confessions must be disregarded if an initial Miranda-defective confession was involuntary. Callen notes Hernandez allegedly confessed multiple times (including two videotaped confessions, plus to a psychiatrist and a prayer group), and the state trial involved 66 witnesses over five months. Key claim: the Supreme Court held federal habeas courts shouldn’t second-guess state courts on Miranda/voluntariness issues under the Anti-Terrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act.
Second guest
Harold Krent, professor at Chicago-Kent College of Law. He previews major cases: birthright citizenship, presidential removal of Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, removal of FTC commissioner Rebecca Kelly Slaughter, Mississippi mail-in ballot counting rules, coordinated campaign spending limits, transgender sports bans in Idaho/West Virginia, and a Bayer “failure to warn” preemption dispute over Roundup.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOEtan Patz's Disappearance and Its Impact
0:00 to 0:59
Explore the history and impact of Etan Patz's case on child safety.
“So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises.”
Etan Patz's Disappearance and Its Impact
1:53 to 2:50
Explore the history and impact of Etan Patz's case on child safety.
“His disappearance in 1979 sparked a nationwide campaign to find missing children.”
Confession Controversies in the Hernandez Case
2:50 to 4:32
Discussion of the confessions made by Pedro Hernandez in detail.
“My guest is former Manhattan prosecutor and criminal defense attorney Paul Callen of counsel at Edelman and Edelman.”
Trial Outcomes and Appeals Process
4:32 to 7:24
Overview of the trial outcomes and subsequent legal appeals.
“but they don't give him his Miranda warnings.”
Supreme Court's Reinstatement of Conviction
7:24 to 12:02
Analysis of the Supreme Court's decision to reinstate Hernandez's conviction.
“So through the state, the state appellate courts affirm the conviction.”
Discussion on Etan Patz Murder Conviction
14:00 to 17:19
Analyzing the reinstatement of the Etan Patz murder conviction and its implications.
“We're just looking at some technicalities here.”
Discussion on Etan Patz Murder Conviction
18:13 to 19:20
Analyzing the reinstatement of the Etan Patz murder conviction and its implications.
“Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., Member FINRA, and SIPC.”
Upcoming Supreme Court Cases Overview
20:40 to 22:36
Previewing high-profile upcoming Supreme Court decisions and their significance.
“I mean, obviously, the Supreme Court does tend to hold cases of great national importance towards the end so they can make their way into the night.”
Detailed Analysis of Birthright Citizenship Case
22:36 to 27:24
Discussing the implications of the birthright citizenship case related to President Trump.
“Are we expecting some kind of narrowing or limited interpretation?”
Examination of Trump's Authority over Federal Officials
27:24 to 28:22
Exploring constitutional questions surrounding Trump's authority to remove federal officials.
“Coming up, more on the upcoming Supreme Court decisions, including a seeming divide on Election Day ballot deadlines.”
Show all 14 chapters
Examination of Trump's Authority over Federal Officials
28:27 to 29:35
Exploring constitutional questions surrounding Trump's authority to remove federal officials.
“Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC.”
Examination of Trump's Authority over Federal Officials
29:39 to 29:49
Exploring constitutional questions surrounding Trump's authority to remove federal officials.
“Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., member FDIC.”
Supreme Court Decisions Overview
30:06 to 41:06
Discussion on upcoming Supreme Court cases and their implications.
“There are 17 cases left to decide before the justices leave for their summer vacations.”
Supreme Court Decisions Overview
42:42 to 43:13
Discussion on upcoming Supreme Court cases and their implications.
“When you're running a business, the best days are the ones where priorities stay on track.”
Transcript
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0:45Sapphire Reserve for Business offers 8x points on all purchases through Chase Travel, 3x points on social media and search engine advertising, airport lounge access, and more. Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business. It's the card that gives back all you put in. Learn more at chase.com forward slash reserve business. Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. Accounts subject to credit approval. Restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., member FDIC. As industries evolve faster than ever, companies need an environment that accelerates strategic growth, and Michigan delivers on that promise.
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1:46This is Bloomberg Law with June Grosso from Bloomberg Radio. Six-year-old Eton Pates was the first missing child to appear on milk cartons. His disappearance in 1979 sparked a nationwide campaign to find missing children. But Pates was never found, and his case went unsolved for more than a decade. It wasn't until 2017 that Pedro Hernandez was convicted of his murder and kidnapping and sentenced to 25 years to life in prison. But the case didn't end there. New York appellate courts affirmed his conviction, but last year the Second Circuit Federal Appeals Court reversed and ordered a new trial for Hernandez because of the way the trial judge had answered a question from jurors.
2:38But today the Supreme Court reversed the Second Circuit and reinstated the murder conviction against Hernandez, finding federal courts shouldn't second guess state courts. My guest is former Manhattan prosecutor and criminal defense attorney Paul Callen of counsel at Edelman and Edelman. Paul, tell us about the disappearance of Eton Pates. The six-year-old was kidnapped off the streets of New York in 1979, and he became the poster child for missing children, I think, to this day. You're absolutely right about that. But as a matter of fact, I think this case has altered child rearing in the United States permanently.
3:22You know, it used to be mom would send kids out the back door and say, go play, come back for supper. Now the parents follow them around, follow them to the bus stop. They're all terrified the kids are going to be kidnapped. And it all started with Eton Pates, who was going to catch a bus to his school in Soho in New York. And he was kidnapped and apparently murdered. And only recently have we had a final resolution of the case in terms of who committed the murder. An individual named Hernandez, whose conviction was now reaffirmed by the Supreme Court. Tell us about the confession because there were some troubling things about the confession.
4:00Yes, there were. His brother-in-law reported to the police that Hernandez had confessed to the murder of Eton Pates. And of course, Eton Pates' murder has been a very, very famous case. throughout the United States ever since it happened back in 1979, a long time ago. In any event, the brother-in-law reports to the police that his, quote, low IQ relative has confessed to the murder. And Camden County, New Jersey police pick him up and they start questioning him, but they don't give him his Miranda warnings. He confesses that he was working in a bodega in Soho when Eton Pates came in to buy a drink as he was on his way to the bus stop and that he murdered Eton Pates and disposed of the body, presumably throwing the body into a dumpster behind the deli.
4:54Full confession to the murder. The police then, who have not given him his Miranda warnings, now say we should give him the Miranda warnings and videotape this confession. And that's exactly what they do. They give him Miranda warnings, videotape the confession, and then they call the district attorney's office in New York and say, you better come out here. We have somebody confessing to the murder of Etan Pates. Now, this was a case that had gone cold for a long time. So obviously, the Manhattan DA's office was very interested in that. Apparently, while all of this is going on, Hernandez also talks to his wife and his daughter, Rosemary and Becky, and he confesses to both of them that he's in fact the person who killed etan pates he's then picked up by the manhattan da's office taken back into new york where he confesses again to the murder this time again on videotape so we now have two videotaped confessions later on during pre-trial proceedings he meets with a psychiatrist he confesses to the psychiatrist that he's the murderer.
5:58And while giving that confession, he also tells the psychiatrist that he admitted this to a prayer group at one point over the last 20 years. So by my count, I think he's confessed now seven times to the murder. All right. So the case goes to trial in New York. The first trial, by the way, ends in a hung jury. He's retried. And the second jury comes back with a jury question. And the jury question is this. If he was not given his Miranda warnings properly and therefore did not voluntarily confess, is it OK for us to consider the other confessions that occurred after this? In substance, that was the question that was asked by the jury.
6:45The way they phrased it was the jury said, do we have to disregard the subsequent confessions if the first confession was not voluntary? The judge says one word, no. No, you don't have to disregard the subsequent confessions. And after that, the jury deliberates for another week and they find Hernandez guilty of the kidnapping and murder of Etan Pates. So that's the story in a nutshell up until we get to subsequent court decisions. And I want to note it was a five month long trial with 66 witnesses. So it wasn't just based on that confession. So through the state, the state appellate courts affirm the conviction.
7:30And then the federal appellate court, the Second Circuit, in a hundred page opinion, last year reversed and ordered that he get a new trial. So what was their reversal based on? The decision was based on the judge's instructions to the jury when they came back with a question, that question that I just repeated. Do we have to disregard the subsequent confessions where the judge just said no? That was the focus. It was a petition for habeas corpus, which, you know, is an elaborate procedure that happens in most serious criminal cases where an appeal has gone through the whole state system and the defendant is still in jail.
8:11He keeps losing. And then he finally goes to federal court and says, my constitutional rights were violated. You, the federal courts, should order my release. And it's called a habeas corpus action. And there's been a law that's been passed making it very difficult to bring a habeas action because what was happening was every criminal case in the United States was winding up in federal court. And the Supreme Court now in this case makes specific reference to that particular law. It's called the ADIPA law that places limitations on habeas corpus actions. So when the Second Circuit, which is a federal court, you know, bear in mind, this went to the appellate division in New York.
8:52The state court, they looked at it and they said, you know something, it's all right. The question of whether a confession is voluntary or involuntary, by the way, is generally decided by a judge. It's not usually decided by a jury. And so the appellate division said under New York law, the way this confession was evaluated was perfectly proper. OK, so then they go into federal court with this and the Second Circuit looks at it, which is the appellate court on the federal side after the district court looks at it first. And they say, well, we think there's a problem here. The judge should have explained in more detail, other than saying no to the jury, that there could be a problem with the confession, that there was insufficient what we call attenuation between the initial confession and the subsequent confession.
9:44which also gets us back to another rule which is the mitchell versus siebert rule that came about when the cops were misusing miranda warnings and what they would do is they would bring you into the station get you to confess to a crime and after you gave the complete detailed confession they'd walk out of the room and then they'd come back in and give you your miranda warnings and say by the way that confession can you repeat that please for the record and now they videotape your confession all right now when the federal courts looked at this they said this is completely improper it's an attempt to get around the miranda warnings and once somebody has been possibly coerced into giving a confession because they haven't heard the miranda warnings of course they're going to repeat the confession so this missouri versus siebert case said basically this is an improper method of administering the Miranda warnings.
10:40And if it's done deliberately by the police, the confession has to be thrown out. So this comes up now in the Hernandez case, because does that violate the Missouri versus Siebert rule? Well, the court in New York said, no, there was no violation of that in our opinion. But when it goes over to the federal court, the federal court says, yes, there was a violation of that. So the Second Circuit reversed the conviction and ordered a new trial for Hernandez. But the Manhattan District Attorney's Office took that decision to the highest court. The state, and this is very unusual, now goes to the Supreme Court to try to get a conviction reinstated.
11:22You know, usually you see a defendant has been convicted going to the Supreme Court to get his case thrown out. This is the opposite. The prosecutor is looking for justice now. So now when they go to the Supreme Court, the Supreme Court says, no, there was no violation here because the state looked at it under state law. The administration of Miranda warnings was done properly. There was proper attenuation. And that's a question for the judge, not the jury. The Siebert case never said anything about jury instructions. So this is an overreach by the Second Circuit. And there was no right for a habeas corpus to be brought here.
12:00So we're reinstating the conviction. Paul, did the Supreme Court reverse because the Second Circuit didn't properly follow federal law or because state law should have applied here? Well, it's a complex question because they're saying that in this situation, the state had the right to evaluate whether there was a proper attenuation of the confession. In other words, whether the secondary administration of Miranda warnings by the Manhattan DA and by the police violated New York law. And New York said, no, that doesn't violate our law. And in New York, a jury can sometimes decide whether a confession is voluntary or not.
12:46Under federal law, that's generally a judge determination that's been made. So the Supreme Court looking at this overall said, well, we have looked at this and there's no violation of federal law as it exists. And if there was a violation of state law, the state has already made a decision here that there was no violation of New York state law. So the federal government has no business interfering in how the state of New York interprets the administration of the Miranda warnings and the confession is a voluntary confession. So it's kind of a question of how you evaluate due process under state and federal law and whether there's a conflict between the sovereign entities.
13:32And here the Supreme Court was saying, you know, there are certain things that we leave to the state. And the Federal Habeas Corpus Act says we should leave most of those things alone unless it's an absolutely egregious violation of somebody's constitutional rights. And let's step back and look at this case, June. The guy confessed seven times to the murder. All right. So I think the Supreme Court was looking at it saying, well, you know, we're not worried about whether we have the right guy or not. We're just looking at some technicalities here. And the New York courts looked at those technicalities and said, there's no violation of New York law here.
14:11So we're not going to set it aside because there's no violation of federal law. I mean, the Second Circuit basically wanted the judge to start explaining to the jury a concurring opinion by Justice Kennedy in a case from more than 20 years ago. I mean, it just seemed ridiculous to put it in legal terms. That's exactly what the Second Circuit said. And by the way, people should know this is what's called a per curiam decision by the Supreme Court, which means a decision by the court. We don't know who authored this opinion, but we do know that the three liberal justices on the court voted against.
14:48So it was a 6-3 decision by the court. Nothing from the liberals about why they were dissenting on this. Very unusual because, you know, these procurium decisions are usually very, very short. But this was, I think, an 11-page, very, very detailed decision by the court. and you would think that the three justices who were dissenting would have weighed in as to why they disagreed with the other six members of the court but no they said nothing they just said we dissent so i don't know what the basis of their dissent would be and we'll never know because this case is for all practical purposes over i mean it'll go back to the to the state court and the sentence will be reimposed and and that'll be the end of it for all practical purposes if the Manhattan District Attorney's Office had to retry this case.
15:34I mean, would they have been able to put together a case after all these years? Well, that was one of the things they raised in their briefs, saying it's patently unfair to try to force us to retry a case as old as this case and to try to put it all together. So I think they would have had trouble. But of course, on the other hand, the case primarily depends upon these confessions. and it's easy enough to put the confessions into evidence you know through the psychiatrist and through the camden police and through the manhattan da's now if he's going to offer an insanity defense yeah that could take a lot of time to put in and uh you know we don't know what would happen on a retrial i mean the defense would reassess and figure out a new way to approach the case to try to put an effective defense in play and i will say this defense attorneys were very very adamant in saying he's innocent.
16:28And this is a really terrible decision to reinstate this conviction. Well, I remember Eton Pates' parents were very unhappy when the Second Circuit reversed the conviction, as you might expect. It's been great having you on again, Paul. Thanks so much. That's former Manhattan prosecutor and criminal defense attorney Paul Callen. The thing about AI for business, it may not automatically fit the way your business works. At IBM, we've seen this firsthand, but by embedding AI across HR, IT, and procurement processes, we've reduced costs by millions, slash repetitive tasks, and freed thousands of hours for strategic work.
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19:04Make every journey more rewarding with a$300 annual travel credit and access to a network of airport lounges, whether you're looking for pre-flight productivity or time to rest and recharge. Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business. It's the card that gives back all you put in. Learn more at chase.com forward slash reserve business. Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. Accounts subject to credit approval. Restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., member FDIC. Turning now to upcoming decisions at the Supreme Court. Tomorrow, starting at 10 a.m., the court is going to announce decisions in cases that have been argued.
19:44The justices have 17 cases left to decide before the term ends, which is usually at the end of June. Seven are high-profile cases, and four of them involve President Trump. Joining me is an expert in constitutional law, Harold Krant, a professor at the Chicago-Kent College of Law. how so many cases left in the last about week and a half of the term, among them the most high-profile cases of the term, including, for example, the birthright citizenship case or Trump's effort to fire a Federal Reserve governor. I always hear that, well, these are complicated cases, and it takes longer, and there are more concurrences and dissents.
20:29But some of these cases date back to December. So my question is, are they waiting to issue all these important decisions together to try to defuse the impact of any one decision? I think that's plausible. I mean, obviously, the Supreme Court does tend to hold cases of great national importance towards the end so they can make their way into the night. So that has been a tendency. But again, if they want to mute some kind of reaction to their decisions, being both pro-Trump administration and anti-Trump administration, bundling them together is not a bad strategy. And I think the way these cases lay out, it's very likely that there'll be a split.
21:13Yeah, so let's start with some of the most high profile. Birthright citizenship. President Trump's bid to roll back automatic birthright citizenship to babies with at least one parent who is a U.S. citizen or green card holder. Well, the issue is there is the 14th Amendment suggests that there is citizenship to anybody born within the jurisdiction of the United States. And the question is, what does jurisdiction mean? But in terms of the history, in terms of how we've interpreted the 14th Amendment, and in terms of a congressional statute that uses similar language and the Supreme Court's precedent in the Long King Arc decision 100 years ago or so, they all point to the direction that the Trump administration is going to lose.
21:59and that we believe that anybody born within the territory of the United States, with certain defined exceptions, such as the Indian tribes, are citizens. And I can't believe the Supreme Court was straight from that in this case. Well, as you say, there's a Supreme Court case directly on point. All the federal courts who ruled on this found that the executive order runs against the citizenship clause as well as federal immigration law, Supreme Court precedent. And when this case was argued, it seemed like justices across the ideological spectrum were dubious about Trump's order. So why didn't this decision come out fast then?
22:37Are we expecting some kind of narrowing or limited interpretation? I can't imagine it in this case. Some of the other cases I can imagine a very limiting perspective that the court will take. But this seems to be teed up as a big Trump loss. and I could be deceiving myself, but it seems like that's going to happen. And again, as you pointed out, maybe the court decides it'll try to temper the sting, if you will, to the Trump administration by combining this case with the one in which it looks more favorably upon what President Trump has done. Okay, so now another one that appears from the oral arguments we knew the answer to.
23:15Trump's effort to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over unproven mortgage fraud allegations. So again, oral arguments, it seemed like the justices were, you know, of one mind that he couldn't do this. Tell us about the constitutional issue here. Well, the constitutional issue is really twofold. The first is, if the president does not have the right to remove Lisa Cook, who is a Federal Reserve governor at will, then he has to find cause. And the Supreme Court has never defined what cause is. And the cause in this case was the allegation of a mortgage fraud from seven, eight years ago, something like that, before Lisa Cook was governor.
24:00So there's really two, three parts of this in which the court's not going to tackle all three. One is, what does cause mean? We don't know. Does cause extend to conduct pre-appointment. We don't know. My guess is it does. I agree with the Trump administration on that. But also, what kind of process is due and can it be reviewable? So those are the three issues. And I think the court will probably rule against the Trump administration on the ground that at least there has to be an informal opportunity for the officer to give, in this case, her side of the story that she did not engage in any kind of mortgage fraud.
24:42She was not given that opportunity. So I think a narrow due process ruling can leave the officer in place and then leave for another day the very important decision about if we can only remove an officer for cause, what is cause? Is it neglect of duties? Is it wrongdoing? You know, what does it constitute? So that case was argued in January. And now another case related, though not the same, that was argued at the beginning of December is where Trump wants to remove Rebecca Kelly Slaughter, who is a federal trade commissioner, despite a law that says commissioners can only be fired for specific reasons.
25:24Yeah, and this has been in the crosshairs of the Trump administration. This is part of a whole unitary executive movement, saying that the president must be able to closely manage his subordinates in the executive branch. And the administration, as several before him as well, has attacked Humphrey's executor, which protected Congress's decision to, in fact, shield some officers from Atwell Removal Authority. And so that's been a target for many administrations. He picked the exact target, the same Federal Trade Commission that was in the Humphreys Executor decision. And I think the consensus is largely that the Supreme Court will overrule Humphreys Executor, at least in part, if not in the whole.
26:06And so giving the Trump administration a big victory. But the question in my mind is how far will the case go? Will they say all executive branch officials? Will they say all superior executive branch officials? Will they say only some with certain types of enforcement responsibilities? So, for instance, there are executive branch agencies that engage in adjudication. Would their membership also have to be removable at will by the president? So the scope of where the president under the Constitution or Article 2 must have this close authority to supervise subordinates is at stake here. I don't think the court will reach out to think about all of those contexts, but it will at least contain, the decision will contain some hints about why the Federal Trade Commission heads must be removable at will and what other similar agencies must be conformed to that same structure.
27:04So do you think that they might announce these two decisions together? Do you think that one is waiting on the other? They could. I mean, there'll be a nice pair, both because it's really about the same issue in different forms of the same issue. And one will probably go against the administration and one will go for the administration. Coming up, more on the upcoming Supreme Court decisions, including a seeming divide on Election Day ballot deadlines. You're listening to Bloomberg. Support for the show comes from Public.com. If you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions.
27:41Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge. On public, you can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English. Like, if the VIX hits 25, buy a put option on the S &P 500. Or, if my cash balance goes above$20 ,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve of the workflow and your agent handles the rest. Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions, and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API.
28:22Go to public.com slash market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com slash market. Paid for by public investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures. When you own your own business, you own every decision. Now own the card that rewards you for it. The Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business card brings the best Sapphire Reserve benefits to business owners who expect hardworking rewards. Designed to meet the needs of business owners at scale, this pay-in-full card elevates your travel experience and offers premium benefits and value toward business services that will take your business to the next level.
Read the full transcript
29:08Fuel your business and maximize rewards with 8x points on all purchases through Chase Travel, 3x points on social media and search engine advertising, annual partnership credits, and more. Make every journey more rewarding with a$300 annual travel credit and access to a network of airport lounges. whether you're looking for pre-flight productivity or time to rest and recharge. Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business. It's the card that gives back all you put in. Learn more at chase.com forward slash reserve business. Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. Accounts subject to credit approval.
29:43Restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., member FDIC. This coffee shop? Running smooth thanks to Genius. From Global Payments. Instant transactions. effortless inventory and synchronized operations. Big League reliability for any business. That's genius. Tomorrow, the Supreme Court will be announcing decisions in argued cases. There are 17 cases left to decide before the justices leave for their summer vacations. I've been talking to Professor Harold Krent of the Chicago-Kent College of Law. Hal, let's turn now to the court's decision about a Mississippi law that allows mail-in ballots to be counted as long as they arrive within five business days of Election Day.
30:34As many as 29 states have similar laws. So the issue is when Congress has designated Election Day as the first Tuesday after the second Monday, if I remember correctly, in November, what does that mean? Can you then count votes after Election Day itself, or must all the votes be tallied by Election Day? And obviously, Mississippi in 2020, in the pandemic, allowed for counting ballots after Election Day, as does over half the states. And so it's a really interesting vote because Mississippi is a Republican state, And it's the one that's going against the Trump administration. And it's interesting, in addition, because of the fact that if you think of federalism, this is a effort really to limit the rights of the states vis-a-vis the federal government.
31:23So it's some odd sign of bedfellows in this case. But, you know, I think it's just a kind of a more narrow focus on what does Election Day mean? And do we need to have decisions or votes counted at least by Election Day, if not decisions, in order to conform to what Congress had in mind by saying there should be one Election Day in the country? During the oral arguments, the Chief Justice and Justice Barrett raised some questions about, well, if we don't allow these late arriving ballots, does that have an effect on early voting? Because early voting, it's before the date that Congress set. Yeah, it depends.
32:02I think they could get around that by saying that Election Day means votes have to be tallied, as opposed to saying that it's not a prohibition on votes being tally beforehand, at least some votes. So I think there is a distinction there, but you could say that a broad definition of election day would really limit the discretion of the states to have early voting and late voting. And again, think about military voting, voting during wars. We've never been able to count all the votes on election day because individuals in our country are dispersed for work, for military reasons, and others. So it's a very, it's a practical matter.
32:43It's a very important decision, but one in which is right now, I think, too close to call. Yeah, maybe a division down ideological lines, which I'm expecting several of those. My only prediction on this case is it will not be strictly on ideological lines, because I think the issues really do cut across the ideological spectrum. Okay, we shall see. Yes, we shall. We won't place a bet on it, but we'll see. So now there are federal caps that limit spending by political parties in coordination with candidates. Have the conservatives on the Supreme Court ever found a restriction on campaign contributions that they agreed with?
33:23I think this one will be decided on ideological grounds. And obviously, the idea that money is speech resonates greatly with a certain ideological part of the Supreme Court, Citizens United. And here in this case, they're looking at what's called political coordinated spending, whether the political parties can coordinate with the campaigns of various individual candidates to evade the limits set by Congress. And so this really at the heart is, can Congress limit at all the types of expenditures that are made to influence campaigns for Democrats or for Republicans. And obviously, the Democrats would benefit from this as well if the caps are stricken, though they have not attacked the theory in this particular case.
34:09Why with campaign finance contributions, is it Republicans that want to get rid of them and Democrats that want to keep them? I think it's a sense that even though Democrats would benefit, they know that they need to be sort of consistent with their base, and their base tend to be smaller donors, at least that's perceived to be the case, even if it's not true. And so they want to be seen as people not wanting big money to rule everything. And that's a message that resonates with at least a large segment of Democratic voters. Let's turn now to transgender issues in sports. State laws in Idaho and West Virginia ban transgender girls and women from competing on female athletic teams.
34:55And I mean, there are 27 states with similar laws. Give us the arguments on both sides of this case. Sure. I mean, the parts of the ban say that this is a violation both of Title IX, which limits the of any kind of school district that accepts federal money and violates the equal protection clause of the Constitution. So it's an echo of the case that the Supreme Court decided just recently in many when the case rejected similar claims against Tennessee's ban on hormone treatment for minors. In this case, though, it's participation in sporting events in high school. People have more of a visceral reaction to it, I think, than the use, for instance, of different bathrooms.
35:36And, you know, I think that the conservatives will probably win on this one, on the theory that there's at least a rational basis for school districts to decide either because of safety or because of fairness, not to allow trans kids on women's teams, but to allow trans kids on men's teams is obviously a lack of symmetry. But then the only way I think for the challengers to win is if they get some kind of increased protection due to the claim either that this is masquerade of sex discrimination, that this is like the Title VII case in Bostock, because where the Supreme Court held that any kind of discrimination on the basis of appearance or gender or being trans, it was a violation of Title VII, though Justice Gorsuch signaled that he views Title IX differently as Title VII, even though they're modeled on the same thing.
36:31So the question really is, I think most people have a consensus that this would pass any kind of rational basis test. But if the scrutiny gets more strict, then it's more difficult to justify the ban. and we don't have good statistics on what is the risk of having trans kids play on high school sports teams. We don't know them and the risks are more theoretical and so any kind of heightened attention that is paid would I think result in a victory for the challengers. Not predicting that but that would be the case if the scrutiny is raised. The woman in the Idaho case tried to get the case drop because she was no longer competing.
37:14Idaho didn't want the case dropped. In the West Virginia case, there was an argument that the young woman had puberty blockers, so she never really had those hormones that would have given her an edge, male hormones. You know, I wonder if they're not going to get that deeply into it and just base the decision on the plaintiffs being transgender. You know, my sense from looking at the transcript of oral argument is that the court could get rid of this case, as you suggest, but unlikely to. The court seems to want to address this issue just as it did in Scrimetti last term and sort of widen the areas in which states, if they so choose, can rule against trans kid equality.
38:01That's my sense. But there are the seats there that the court wants to duck it, it can duck it and probably with a good face. If it doesn't duck it, this is one of the cases where I say I will fall off my chair if they actually rule in favor of transgender rights. Because since the Bostock case, they have ruled consistently against transgender rights and LGBTQ rights. I mean, it's just pretty obvious. Yeah, Bostock was the high point, if you will, the pinnacle of protection for people who are LGBT and trans, and there has been a startling decline after that. And I, you know, predict that that trend will continue.
38:45So then we have Bayer. The company says that federal regulators didn't require a cancer warning, and so state regulators shouldn't have been allowed to require a cancer warning either. This is only about one suit involving failure to warn, but there are so many suits against Bayer. I think it's about 60 ,000. So under the federal regulation statute, it seems that the FDA decides what is safe, what is not safe, and has only approves warnings or not warnings on labels of this case Roundup, which is a well-known, was a well-known, fungicide, which obviously had bad repercussions and leads to cancer.
39:29And so the question is, could states warn about Roundup without any kind of federal blessing? And, you know, I think here the administration is on pretty strong ground to have some kind of uniform regulation that, you know, to have Roundup being okay in one state or have a warning in one state and not in the other. And what about runoff, you know, in terms of the environment is not, a kind of crazy way to think about regulation that seems to need a uniform approach. So it's the federal regulation from Congress that's at least directed from Congress seems to contemplate one size fits all regulation of any chemicals coming within the purview of this particular regulatory scheme.
40:13And so I think that on average, again, we're going to see a split, I think, in ideological leanings amongst the justices. I think there'll be a coalition both of conservative and liberal judges going both ways. But if I had to predict, I would predict that the federal government would win as against the states simply because it seems that this regulatory scheme is focused on the need for uniformity. And in this case, the FDA did not require any kind of more stringent regulation or roundup, despite what we unfortunately have found out is about its true costs. So the interesting thing about these cases is we're not going to see uniform ideological bans of the court.
40:55And I don't think we're going to see uniform Trump administration wins. So it's really going to be a mixed set. And then we'll have to see in each particular case how the court resolves it. And we will see that starting tomorrow at 10. Thanks so much for getting us ready for What's Coming Up, Hal. That's Professor Harold Krent of the Chicago-Kent College of Law. And that's it for this edition of the Bloomberg Law Show. Remember, you can always get the latest legal news on our Bloomberg Law podcast. You can find them on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and at www.bloomberg.com slash podcast slash law. And remember to tune into the Bloomberg Law Show every weeknight at 10 p.m.
41:36Wall Street time. I'm June Grosso, and you're listening to Bloomberg.
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From the publisher
Former Manhattan prosecutor and criminal defense attorney Paul Callan, of counsel at Edelman & Edelman, discusses the Supreme Court reinstating the murder conviction of Pedro Hernandez for the murder of 6-year-old Etan Patz who became the poster child for missing children. Then constitutional law expert Harold Krent, a professor at the Chicago-Kent College of Law, discusses the high profile cases the Supreme Court has yet to decide this term including cases on birthright citizenship and the firing of a Federal Reserve Governor. June Grasso hosts.
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