Meta Wins in Antitrust & Texas Loses in Redistricting

20 Nov 2025 · 33 min · 13 chapters

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In short

A Bloomberg Law episode covering (1) an antitrust ruling where Meta defeats the FTC over its Instagram and WhatsApp acquisitions, and (2) a federal court blocking Texas’s new congressional map, finding it was a racial gerrymander rather than a partisan one.

Guests

Harry First, NYU Law School professor and antitrust expert; Richard Bufault, Columbia Law School professor and elections law expert.

Key claims (antitrust)

Judge James Boesberg ruled the FTC failed to prove Meta lacked monopoly power in a properly defined social-network market. The judge used a “time of decision” standard for monopoly proof and included TikTok and YouTube as substitutes, undermining monopoly power. The FTC’s “overpaid to bury competitors” narrative (e.g., WhatsApp) was rejected; WhatsApp dropped early from the market analysis.

Notable examples

TikTok/Reels substitutability; Facebook’s ad “price”; Meta’s $19B WhatsApp purchase; Texas coalition districts (majority-minority) converted into narrow single-race majority districts (e.g., ~15.2% majorities).

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Meta's Key Antitrust Ruling Explained

2:07 to 4:50

An overview of the recent ruling favoring Meta against the FTC.

“It's a massive blow to the federal government that's been trying to break up meta for the last five years.”

Judicial Standards and Market Definition

4:50 to 7:41

Discussion on the judge's unique approach to assessing monopoly power.

“Well, if you go for this, you know, then you're done.”

Impacts of Competition from TikTok

7:41 to 13:17

Examining how TikTok's rise affects Facebook's market position.

“The argument that the commission makes is that we look at what they did and why they did it, that this was an effort to maintain their monopoly, these two acquisitions for which they wildly overpaid.”

Impacts of Competition from TikTok

14:45 to 15:01

Examining how TikTok's rise affects Facebook's market position.

“Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC.”

Impacts of Competition from TikTok

15:04 to 15:55

Examining how TikTok's rise affects Facebook's market position.

“When you own your own business, you own every decision.”

Meta's Antitrust Victory Explained

16:10 to 22:58

Explore Meta's recent legal victory against the FTC regarding its monopoly status.

“Meta prevailed over an existential challenge to its business that could have forced the tech giant to spin off Instagram and WhatsApp.”

Meta's Antitrust Victory Explained

23:03 to 23:50

Explore Meta's recent legal victory against the FTC regarding its monopoly status.

“Support for the show comes from public.com.”

Meta's Antitrust Victory Explained

23:54 to 24:12

Explore Meta's recent legal victory against the FTC regarding its monopoly status.

“Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, When you own your own business, you own every decision.”

Meta's Antitrust Victory Explained

24:16 to 25:03

Explore Meta's recent legal victory against the FTC regarding its monopoly status.

“The Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business card brings the best Sapphire Reserve benefits to business owners who expect hardworking rewards.”

Texas Redistricting and Court Ruling

25:48 to 28:00

Delve into the federal court's decision on Texas's congressional redistricting plans and the implications of racial gerrymandering.

“The ruling is a blow to President Trump's efforts to preserve a slim Republican majority ahead of the 2026 elections.”
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Texas Redistricting Controversy

28:00 to 31:10

Explore the implications of the court's ruling on Texas' redistricting and racial gerrymandering.

“So what the three-judge panel in this case concluded is that that was what was driving the redistricting.”

Supreme Court's Role and Upcoming Challenges

31:10 to 37:30

Discuss the Supreme Court's potential involvement in the ongoing redistricting legal battles.

“Rich we've talked before about the case currently before the Supreme Court on the Louisiana maps.”

California's Redistricting Case Study

37:30 to 40:30

Analyze California's redistricting plan and the arguments against it from Republicans.

“And California has approved a redistricting plan that would offset the Texas map, which is now in serious jeopardy.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

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1:54for any business. That's genius.

2:00June Grasso:This is Bloomberg Law with June Grosso from Bloomberg Radio. It's a massive blow to the federal government that's been trying to break up meta for the last five years. The tech giant has won a key ruling that its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp didn't violate U.S. antitrust law. D.C. federal judge James Boesberg said the Federal Trade Commission had to show that Meta continues to hold monopoly power in social networking now, and that it had failed to do so. My guest is antitrust expert Harry First, a professor at NYU Law School. Harry, how big a blow is this to the FTC? Well, it's a blow, all right.

2:49June Grasso:So this is the first big loss in these high-tech platform cases. So two of them have now come to a conclusion of the trial, both against Google, both successful for the Justice Department. Remedy, another story maybe. So this is the third. There are five total, and it's the first loss. It's sort of not a surprising loss because this judge has been skeptical of this case, clearly from the very beginning. He had dismissed it originally. So he's been very skeptical and he's said it in his opinions. So this case has not been well received by the judiciary, shall we say. So it's not surprising. The opinion itself is a little surprising, but the result is not so surprising.

3:36Why do you say the opinion is surprising.

3:39June Grasso:So in two ways. First of all, he's taken a very novel approach to time, in the opinion. So he says that the proof has to be as of the time I make my decision almost. I mean, this is an impossible standard. He said maybe they were a monopoly. Maybe this was a properly defined product market in 2020 when the suit was filed, you know, but as time has gone by, it's not that much time. By now, it's not. And the question is not whether it was then, but whether it is now. I mean, if you take that literally, that's a completely moving standard. You could never try a case because your evidence is always outdated.

4:23June Grasso:I mean, it's always about the past. You can't try a case about the future. So that's a departure. He's got some legal reasoning for why he does that, but that's a serious problem, and I think it's a serious antitrust problem. So there is that part of it. The second part is this judge is very confident of his opinion. So normally a district court judge, he's got seven things to decide in front of him, and they proceed logically. Well, if you go for this, you know, then you're done. But if you go for this and it's okay, you go to number two, three, four, five. So he has a long trial, but he only decides the first issue.

5:02June Grasso:Now, normally a judge would say, okay, here's what I decide. This isn't a market. The market has to include such and such. They don't really have monopoly power. Okay. But if I'm wrong, here are the facts that I found about the conduct. And the conduct wasn't any competitive. So even if you had monopoly power, this was not exclusionary conduct. It wasn't any competitive. And so you go through all the things, because if a court of appeals disagrees with you, now what? You've got to retry the whole case? So this is a judge who thinks no one's going to disagree with me, man. And maybe, maybe part of it is because the narrative of the case is at least potentially stronger than the market definition.

5:47June Grasso:And so that's when, you know, all the emails about how Mark Zuckerberg's theory was to buy them or, you know, bury them. And, you know, what he tried to do with with competitors and why he paid so much for Instagram and for WhatsApp. WhatsApp drops out of this case like right away. I don't know, third word or something. He says at some point, we're done with them. We don't have to talk about them anymore because we don't get to them. that's not involved in the market definition. So that's pretty unusual, I think. And it's either hubris or confidence. I don't know which. But he does not do what I think most district court judges would do, which is decide the full case.

6:31I thought the focus would be on the market when Meta bought Instagram and WhatsApp, and whether it was anti-competitive conduct, when it's alleged that Meta couldn't compete with these two apps, and Zuckerberg said it's better to buy than compete?

6:50June Grasso:Well, what he tried to say was, well, we've got to do it as of now, in part because of the FTC's remedy powers. They're asking for an injunction, and they can only stop conduct that is illegal now. So I've got to decide what's illegal now. Now, he could have very well said, that's a remedy question. We'll decide that when we get to remedy, whether it's a continuing violation or not, we should look at whether there was a violation then. So, for example, if this were a suit for damages, you wouldn't say, well, we have to see whether there's a violation today. You would say, let's see whether there was a violation at the time that the offense was committed and what damages were caused.

7:35June Grasso:So those two things are separate. So it's really quite odd. And you're right. The argument that the commission makes is that we look at what they did and why they did it, that this was an effort to maintain their monopoly, these two acquisitions for which they wildly overpaid. Why were they paying$19 billion for a company that didn't have any revenue? That was WhatsApp. And the answer was they didn't want them to develop into competing social network platforms. So, you know, now that part also had problems. It had issues. You know, the Federal Trade Commission and its earlier guys let those acquisitions go through.

8:17June Grasso:So there were issues with it. But so in that sense, that's a really strange aspect. Did the judge come to this decision because of the way he defined the market and the fact that he put YouTube and TikTok in the market? Yeah, so the first question, you have to show that a defendant has monopoly power in a relevant market. So he says, okay, we have to start with market definition. So that's true. That's the way it's normally done. And then he says, okay, yes, let's look at the market. And what we have to do, he basically puts in, you know, he says these platforms have converged. These are all sort of similar.

9:00June Grasso:And particularly TikTok, you know, was posing a competitive threat. He says people don't want to talk to their friends anymore. They just want unconnected videos. So, you know, here's TikTok comes along. They're posing some threat and Facebook responds with reels, short videos. And so that has now changed how we define the market because users switch back and forth between the two. And we have to include TikTok and we have to include YouTube where users switch to those videos. Later, sort of at the end of the opinion, he says, well, the argument for YouTube actually is a little thinner. But even if it's just TikTok, that's enough.

9:43June Grasso:We would include that in however we define the market, whatever we want to call it doesn't really give it a name. And at that point, if we include TikTok, then there's no monopoly power. meta or Facebook does not have monopoly power, that TikTok takes away too much time. All those kids are frittering where their time on TikTok instead of frittering where their time on Facebook. They had various evidence of, you know, the willingness to switch and that people switch between those two. Normally for looking at substitutes, you say, so if the seller raised its price, what would people switch to? Well, the thing is, Facebook doesn't have a price in that sense.

10:30June Grasso:What it has is ads. I don't know if you've looked at your Facebook feed recently. I'm not on Facebook. I will confess. I got you on that one. Yeah, well, there are a lot of ads on Facebook. And so, you know, that's sort of the price. But the judge didn't seem to think that people minded those ads so much. They're nice ads. They don't really interfere so much. So not so bad. And people were switching, particularly, I think younger people were switching over to TikTok to, you know, for whatever you get in TikTok. Now, what you don't get in TikTok particularly are friends, groups of friends. And that's what the government sort of honed in on.

11:14June Grasso:It's a social network. It's put together by who your friends are. And what Boesberg observes is that at least some users don't really care so much about their friends. They want to be put together more by interests. You know, I like, I don't know, Japanese cooking. So I get lots of videos about Japanese cooking. You know, I don't know the Japanese cooks and they're not my friends, but that's what I like to look at. Or I like recipes, you know, that are easy to make or crazy to look at, whatever TikTok has. So people have switched to that and away from Facebook. Now, the odd thing in some ways is if so many people are switching, how come so many people are still on Facebook?

12:03He gives 230

12:05June Grasso:million U.S. users, I think is the number, and ad revenues of$161 billion. So when you read his description, it sounds like this is a company that is just in the throes of death from TikTok. And then he says, this is an amazingly successful product. Give people a compelling product for free, then sell ads that can be seen by millions. I guess he thinks those are good. 240 million active users in the United States. That's a lot of people. So apparently, they haven't been dissuaded by TikTok, which is also free. And, you know, they don't give all their time there. They're still on Facebook. So the argument, presumably, from the government is that by incorporating reels, they've managed to defend their core business.

13:00June Grasso:And their core business is social network, putting people together. And they still get a lot of people who like that product, even though some people also use different products. Coming up next, I'll continue this conversation with Professor Harry First of NYU Law School. Will the government appeal the decision? I'm June Grosso, and you're listening to Bloomberg. So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now, a global workforce of 300 ,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94 % of common questions.

13:43Not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM. Support for the show comes from public.com. If you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge. On public, you can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf. Just describe what you want to do in plain English. Like, if the VIX hits 25, buy a put option on the S &P 500. or if my cash balance goes above$20 ,000, move the excess into my direct index.

14:23You approve of the workflow and your agent handles the rest. Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com slash market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com slash market. Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA, and SIPC. Advisory services by Public Advisors, LLC, SEC Registered Advisor. Complete disclosures available at public.com slash disclosures.

15:04When you own your own business, you own every decision. Now own the card that rewards you for it. The Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business card brings the best Sapphire Reserve benefits to business owners who expect hardworking rewards. Designed to meet the needs of business owners at scale, this pay-in-full card elevates your travel experience and offers premium benefits and value toward business services that will take your business to the next level. Fuel your business and maximize rewards with 8x points on all purchases through Chase Travel, 3x points on social media and search engine advertising, annual partnership credits, and more.

15:39Make every journey more rewarding with a$300 annual travel credit and access to a network of airport lounges. whether you're looking for pre-flight productivity or time to rest and recharge. Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business. It's the card that gives back all you put in. Learn more at chase.com forward slash reserve business. Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. Accounts subject to credit approval. Restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., member FDIC. Meta prevailed over an existential challenge to its business that could have forced the tech giant to spin off Instagram and WhatsApp.

16:19In a loss for the FTC, a judge ruled that the company doesn't hold a monopoly in social networking. I've been talking to NYU Law School Professor Harry First. Harry, here's what an FTC spokesperson said about the loss to Meta. We're deeply disappointed in this decision, but the deck was always stacked against us because of the judge. Boesberg has ruled against the Trump administration in some high-profile cases this year, and he's also been frequently criticized by the president and the attorney general. This just continues the Justice Department's attacks on judges. I hadn't read that, and you sort of wish that they hadn't done that.

17:01June Grasso:Yes, Judge Boesberg did stand up to the Trump administration, and Trump singled him out as, I forget what description. Crazy lunatic something? lunatic judge. So now I don't know which way it even goes, particularly given the fact that there was a report of Mark Zuckerberg meeting with Trump in the Oval Office to settle this case. And Trump was dissuaded, apparently from settlement by the efforts, not so much of the chair of the Federal Trade Commission, but by the head of the Justice Department Antitrust division, Gail Slater. So maybe the FTC should have settled it then. Maybe they would have done better.

17:43June Grasso:But it's just, first of all, it's in some ways so wrong because Bozberg took this position way before the immigration cases came up. From the beginning, when he dismissed the complaint, the original complaint, and let them refile it, he's been critical of this case. So to see this as a connection of, you know, some crazed judge who, what, is just against the government? I mean, it's just wrong. I wish they'd stick to the problem that they've got, which is that this is bad law for the FTC and for any trust enforcement. And, you know, now we're going to see what they're going to do about it. Are they going to appeal this decision or not?

18:27Yeah, so that was my next question. I mean, it sounds like they should appeal because of the timeline that he's defining markets on. But might they not? I mean, Zuckerberg has been courting Trump for quite some time. It's hard to assess the political wins because conservatives had been upset with Facebook,

18:48June Grasso:thinking that their algorithm has, you know, discriminated against them. I sent an email to my niece last night who uses Facebook all the time. And she says she thinks they don't post any of her left-leaning posts. They don't seem to get moved up into the feed, but the calm ones do. I don't know. I like that you're doing research at night. That's research. That's my empirical research. Fair enough. Although Zuckerberg seems to have tried to turn that around by weakening hate speech policies and eliminating fact checking. My view of Mark Zuckerberg, he hasn't turned at all, is that he just turns whichever way the politics are.

19:33June Grasso:So now it's this way, and that's fine with him too, as long as he keeps, you know, they're apparently the third largest digital advertiser after Google and Amazon. So they're doing really, really well, despite Bozberg's feeling that nobody wants to talk to their friends. Apparently, a lot of people still do. And they read those ads and click on them. If this were an administration that just based its decisions on the law, would they appeal to try to get this ruling that the government has to show monopoly power now reversed? Or because of Zuckerberg's attempts to court Trump, do you think they might not appeal?

20:16June Grasso:Who knows exactly which wins? And the wins may go the other way because, you know, a populist wing of the party feels that these platforms have too much power and need to be cut down. So who knows exactly. But if you look straight at the legal issues, usually appeals from adverse decisions of trial courts are hard to win on appeal because they're mostly fact based. So you have to look look for legal issues. And there's a, you know, an important legal issue of, you know, whether he applied the correct standard for defining the market and for assessing when a violation occurred. And that one's sort of a very pointed legal issue.

21:03June Grasso:How it will fare in the court of appeals if they do take it, I don't know. And does this decision have any implications for the other antitrust cases against tech platforms? Yeah, that's a good question. Perhaps. I'm thinking of Amazon, for example. And these are platform cases. And platform strategy is you have a core product. And what you want to do is to keep people on the platform and engaged because of the strength of the core product. And you defend the core product by acquiring things around the periphery that might challenge it or by doing things. You know, these companies are always subject to some competitive forces, even if they're monopolists.

21:47June Grasso:So certainly Facebook was. TikTok did pose a competitive threat. And Amazon similarly has competitive threats to which they respond. But the basic strategy is pretty similar. And the market definition in some ways is similar because they offer a bunch of different products in the same place, much as supermarkets do, like Whole Foods, for example. So you have a sort of core product and then other things that they offer that other firms may compete on. I mean, look at your smartphone. So 35 millimeter cameras compete on cameras, but are they in the same market? No. So you could say this is quite similar.

22:36June Grasso:Yes, TikTok competes. I'm surprised Twitter is not mentioned. Twitter competes you know, to some extent. But these are all to some extent, and it's still meta defending its core product in which it has a lot of power, as all advertisers know. Always a pleasure. Thanks so much, Harry. That's Professor Harry First of NYU Law School. Support for the show comes from public.com. If you're actively involved in your portfolio, you probably catch yourself repeating the same actions. Buying the dip, manually sweeping idle cash, putting on a hedge. On public, you can now create AI agents that handle all these tasks on your behalf.

23:19Just describe what you want to do in plain English. Like, if the VIX hits 25, buy a put option on the S &P 500. Or, if my cash balance goes above$20 ,000, move the excess into my direct index. You approve of the workflow and your agent handles the risk. Monitoring the market, watching for your conditions, and executing your strategies exactly as defined. An investing platform driven by your intent, not just your clicks. You can also get full read and write access to your account via the public API. Go to public.com slash market and fund your account in five minutes or less. That's public.com slash market.

23:58Paid for by Public Investing. Brokered services by Open to the Public Investing,

24:12When you own your own business, you own every decision. Now own the card that rewards you for it. The Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business card brings the best Sapphire Reserve benefits to business owners who expect hardworking rewards. Designed to meet the needs of business owners at scale, this pay-in-full card elevates your travel experience and offers premium benefits and value toward business services that will take your business to the next level. Fuel your business and maximize rewards with 8x points on all purchases through Chase Travel, 3x points on social media and search engine advertising, annual partnership credits, and more.

24:47Make every journey more rewarding with a$300 annual travel credit and access to a network of airport lounges. whether you're looking for pre-flight productivity or time to rest and recharge. Chase Sapphire Reserve for Business. It's the card that gives back all you put in. Learn more at chase.com forward slash reserve business. Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. Accounts subject to credit approval. Restrictions and limitations apply. Cards are issued by JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A., member FDIC. Never bet against American grit or American energy. Through innovation, Venture Global is not only building some of the largest energy facilities in the world right here in the United States, but delivering American energy at a fraction of the cost and a fraction of the time.

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25:36So while others are busy talking, we're busy building. That's Venture Global. That's unstoppable energy.

25:47Texas kicked off the nationwide redistricting battle, but now a federal court has blocked the state from using a redrawn congressional map that was engineered to give Republicans five additional House seats. The ruling is a blow to President Trump's efforts to preserve a slim Republican majority ahead of the 2026 elections. Joining me is elections law expert Richard Bufault, a professor at Columbia Law School. Rich, so this was a two-to-one decision. Will you explain why the judges decided that Texas couldn't use its new congressional plan? In a nutshell, the court concluded that this was a racial gerrymander and not a partisan gerrymander.

26:33And as you know, the Supreme Court has said partisan gerrymanders are not unconstitutional. There's no basis for challenging them in federal court. but racial gerrymanders can be unconstitutional and can be challenged in federal court. So the heart of the court's decision was that this was a racial gerrymander. And what did they base that on? The court said what triggered this, although we think of this as Trump demanding more Republican seats from the Texas congressional delegation, in the court's view, the Texas governor was initially reluctant to call the special section to create the map until he got a letter from the Department of Justice in Washington that said several of the Texas districts were unconstant created on racial grounds.

27:17In particular, the Department of Justice focused on so-called coalition districts, which are districts which are majority minority, but not one particular minority group. And for a period of time in the Fifth Circuit, courts there had said that the Voting Rights Act could be interpreted to require the so-called coalition district, which let's say is 40 percent black and 30 percent Hispanic. Neither one is a majority, but together they add up to 70 percent. And so the Department of Justice says, well, we see four districts in your current year 2021 map that look like they're coalition districts to us.

27:56And based on a recent decision in the Fifth Circuit, we think that makes them unconstitutional. so you got to fix it. You got to redo those districts. So what the three-judge panel in this case concluded is that that was what was driving the redistricting. They looked at the statements of the governor, Governor Abbott, and of the leading members of the state legislature, and they also looked at the resulting map, and they pointed out that most of the changes in the redrawn districts went from being so-called coalition districts to districts in which one race or another had a majority and often an extremely narrow majority.

28:33They said there were three districts. They were either black or Hispanic, where the majority group had like 15.2%. So they said the combination of the Department of Justice letter, the governor's statement, calling the legislature into session, and statements by many of the leading members of the legislature, and then the districts that were created, in their minds, this meant that race predominated, the desire to create racial majority districts is what was driving this. It's true the court said it also clearly had partisan consequences, and there may have been some partisan motivation as well.

29:07But they said the dominant motive that they found was race, and therefore this made it an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. Even though we know that the reason that Greg Abbott called the special session was because President Donald Trump told him that he wanted to get, you know, extra seats in Texas? I think what you could say is that, you know, to borrow from Shakespeare, the Department of Justice was hoist by its own petard. I think when this all began, it's now like four months later. It's amazing how much has gone in four or five months. When this all began, maybe people thought it was too blatant to say this was all for partisan reasons.

29:45I mean, we've now been totally partisan since June of this year in the redistricting, but maybe they thought it was just too blatant to say we're doing it for partisan purposes. So the Department of Justice trumped up this racial argument. There was no argument, actually, that those coalition districts were unconstitutional. You could argue that there's no mandate that a state create them. And that's certainly true now. But there was no evidence that they were unconstitutionally drawn. Nonetheless, Part of Justice having, I think, provided this kind of pretext for the state to go ahead and do the partisan gerrymander.

30:19But given that that was the stated reason, the court was able to say we think it's a racial gerrymander. They also made the point that the Democratic districts, which were undone, mostly fell into this category of coalition districts. And they pointed out there was one white majority Democratic district, which was barely touched. So they do have some evidence suggesting that most of the focus of the legislature was on coalition districts and making them majority one race or the other. But I think what you've got here is this irony that at least in June of this year, the governor and the Department of Justice thought it's too blatant to do with purely partisan reasons.

31:00So we're going to give them an anti-race discrimination motivation. situation and that has I think turned around to sort of bite him in the rear at least for now. And now the question is what will happen when this gets to the Supreme Court? Rich we've talked before about the case currently before the Supreme Court on the Louisiana maps. Does that fit in anywhere here? Well here I think what the court three judge paneled really two judges there's a dissenter his the majority opinion is 160 pages long but I think the court said here yes the issue was sort of disentangling race from party. Again, to restate racial gerrymandering is unconstitutional, partisan is not.

31:40The court just kind of went through a lot of evidence and said, we have all this evidence. And we think it shows that on balance, given the governor's statements, given the statement of the chair of the relevant committee, given the statements of some other prominent legislators, and then given the results, we think this is predominantly racial. And And therefore, it violates a pre-existing doctrine. The Louisiana case turns on whether or not, in fact, it was predominantly racial to create a second black majority district. But here, this was really about you had a valid plan in existence before.

32:17And this is whether or not were the changes predominantly race based or predominantly partisan. And the court says, argue with the evidence is that they're so predominantly race based, we think a preliminary injunction should be granted. they're appealing right to the Supreme Court. First of all, I mean, as far as timing is concerned, there's a December 8th state deadline for candidates to file campaign paperwork. Is the Supreme Court likely to make a decision here within that time frame? Well, I think the real question is, will the Supreme Court say that the lower court has made this decision too close to the election?

32:55There's this doctrine called the Purcell principle based on a Supreme Court decision now about 25 years old, in which the court says that federal courts should not undo state election laws if they're too close to an election. The court has never said what is too close to an election, but there have been some orders from the Supreme Court in recent years that treated decisions that were within six months of an election as too close to an election. And the Texas primary is in March. So looking at some recent Supreme Court decisions, there is a plausible argument that this court's decision is too close to the election and therefore should be stayed.

33:38Now, the court addresses that for about 20 pages, and they make the point that the Texas plan was not signed into law until the end of August. And if you took the idea that six months it's too late. It was almost too late as of the moment the Texas redistricting was signed into law. It would have been impossible to have a challenge, have the parties do the research, have a hearing and have a decision in time to take something like six months. So the court makes, you know, kind of a strong pitch for saying that the Purcell principle has to be handled flexibly. We've got to look at how late the Texas legislature did this.

34:17And we do have to say that it is possible to come into compliance. They make two more points. One is that the old map is still in existence because Texas is about to hold an election on that old map in January because there is a vacancy. A member of the Texas congressional delegation died early this year. There was just a primary thing to fill that. The general election to actually fill that seat won't be until January. That's on the old map, the pre-gerrymander map. And so the court says, well, the old maps are still the law. So under our preliminary injunction, we're just going to continue to live by the old map.

34:54So the old map is still on the books. And so they're saying that in some sense, the real disruption was the state legislatures acting so late. And so therefore, we should be able to do this. And yes, it's still time for everyone to come into compliance to file under the old maps. I think the first question, maybe the stronger argument, when Texas appeals this to the Supreme Court. I suspect they will lean heavily on this Purcell idea that it's too late, that we're about three weeks away from the filing deadlines for the March primary, and it's too late. And I think secondarily, they'll say, well, yes, there is a lot of race evidence, but there's also partisan evidence, and we should defer to the legislature on that.

35:36So I think that's how that's likely to go. I don't know what the Supreme Court will do is unclear, here. But there is a plausible Purcell argument that it's too late. But as I said, the court is very strong in saying, well, if that's the case, you can never bring a challenge to a gerrymander. Indeed, it's an incentive to do the gerrymanders closer and closer to the election to make it impossible to bring challenges. If the Supreme Court says, forget the Purcell principle here. How do you think they would rule on Texas's appeal, you know, that this was a partisan, not a racial gerrymander? Do you have any idea on that?

36:14It's really hard to say. I mean, I think there, you know, I think the court acknowledges that there's evidence on the other side, but they have, and particularly the testimony of the map drawer, the Republican specialist who was hired to draw the map who said, you know, no, I never looked at race data. The court said, we essentially don't believe you, partly because there were discrepancies between your testimony and the testimony of the state legislator who hired you, but also because we just don't believe that you could produce three districts that are 50.2, 50.3, 50.4 percent, a majority, I think two were Hispanic, one was Black, I'm not sure about that, and that's so precise, and you could do it three times, and that you were not paying attention to race.

36:55But I mean, there is counter evidence. And, you know, in theory, the Supreme Court's not supposed to judge the evidence. That's really for the lower court. They're supposed to defer to lower courts on evidentiary findings. But the current Supreme Court has not always followed that rule. So it's hard to tell what they're going to do. And we haven't seen the dissenting opinion, which may provide, you know, good arguments for Texas when it takes this to the Supreme Court. As you know, this whole redistricting, national redistricting battle was started by President Trump. And California has approved a redistricting plan that would offset the Texas map, which is now in serious jeopardy.

37:40Tell us about the legal challenge to California's redistricting from California Republicans and also now the Trump administration. I mean, they're basically making the same argument that prevailed here, that this is a racial gerrymander. I mean, they can't bring a partisan gerrymander argument because, as I said, the Supreme Court in LaRuccio case in, I think, 2019 said those are simply not justiciable. You can't challenge. So I think they're bringing a claim that the state's, the legislature's motivation was race. Assumably they've targeted specific districts for that, but I don't know what they've argued in that.

38:14But I think the essence of it is that it's a racial gerrymander, very similar to the argument. I don't know the details, but the basic idea is similar to the argument that the three-judge court in Texas recognized in striking down the Texas gerrymander. And it's sort of opposite of what happened in Texas. The Justice Department argued that California's map illegally bolsters the voting power of Hispanics in the state. Yeah, which is interesting because, of course, in Texas, one of the arguments Governor Abbott made is that this is going to actually strengthen the voting power of Hispanics. Although he combined that and he was basically saying Hispanics are becoming more Republican.

38:51And this is going to allow them to be able to articulate that in districts, to vote their preference in districts. He had a kind of a sentence which kind of combined the two in one sentence. But yes. So, I mean, much would turn on whatever evidence they have for that. But there's also an argument that there's been a lot of debate about this amongst the law professors in the last 24 hours as to what's the significance of the fact that the California redistricting was approved by the voters. Would the challengers have to prove that the voters were racially motivated as opposed to the legislature?

39:25And I think for grabs, because the public campaigning was largely on party grounds. So whether or not, even if there was a racial motivation within the legislature, whether that was some kind of washed away by the voters or whether if it really is racially tainted, whether the legislature's motivation was racial, pro-Hispanic, whether it doesn't matter that the voters voted for it because they thought they were voting on partisan grounds. That's interesting. That will be an interesting fight. You law professors have some interesting conversations. Yeah, obviously it's been all online, but it's been an interesting back and forth on that.

40:00Of course, the government and the plaintiffs first have to show that the plan was racially motivated and not partisanly motivated, even within the legislature. And then they conclude that it was partisan even in the legislature. Then the effect of the voters becomes irrelevant. And there are other states, both Democratic and Republican, that are in play. We'll see what settles out. Thanks so much, Rich. That's Professor Richard Brafalt of Columbia Law School. And that's it for this edition of the Bloomberg Law Show. Remember, you can always get the latest legal news on our Bloomberg Law Podcast.

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From the publisher

Antitrust expert Harry First, a professor at NYU Law School, discusses the FTC’s major loss to Meta. Elections expert Richard Briffault, a professor at Columbia Law School, discusses a federal court ruling that Texas cannot use the maps it drew in its mid-decade redistricting. June Grasso hosts.

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