Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 12th, 2026

0:00If you invest or lead a business, one-sided views aren't enough. Join me, Brad Rogoff, and my team at Barclays Research as we debate what's driving markets on the Flipside podcast. Find the Flipside wherever you get your podcasts. The world of business is constantly evolving and Comcast Business keeps you totally in step with secure AI-backed networking in more than 100 countries. They're powering over 90 % of the Fortune 500 and millions of small businesses. That's a lot of muscle. And behind it all, thousands of experts answering your call at 2 a.m. like it's 2 p.m. One partner powering how business gets done for companies around the globe.

0:40When you add it all up, no one does business like Comcast Business. Small businesses are the pulse of every community. They bring people together, create opportunities, and drive growth. Chase for Business helps business owners like you with personalized guidance and convenient digital tools all in one place. With that guidance and your determination, you can take your business farther and help build a brighter future for your community. Learn more at chase.com slash business. Chase for Business. Make more of what's yours. The Chase Mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply.

1:14JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. Member FDIC. Copyright 2026, JPMorgan Chase and Company.

1:47television weekday mornings from 6 to 9 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen. And as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. Here's a view from Wall Street. Pete Shearer of Academy writing, given how interconnected the compute industry is and that Jensen was such a force within it, this where I think the tail risk resides. Peter joins us now for more. Peter, what do you mean by that? The One, it's hard working with so many allegedly's. But I do think everyone's going to explore what deals were done, how the deals were done.

2:22Is there an ability to have some of these deals done, right? Jensen clearly was this force within the industry, and he was able to get deals done. He was able to move things along. Does that change if he gets sidelined or has to step back? That, to me, is kind of the tail risk. He has been such a big part of the growth engine, and everyone's going to be a little bit more curious. How does this play out forward? The tail risk for NVIDIA or the tail risk for the tech trade, given the interconnectedness of finances? I think it's the tail risk for the tech trade as well as NVIDIA. I think NVIDIA has been so important.

2:51And I was just checking, you know, CoreWeave bonds, which were closed yesterday while stock markets got to rally because the bond people were away. CoreWeave bonds are actually basically opening unchanged from Tuesday. So they did not reflect any of yesterday's gain in the stock and maybe are reflecting worse. So I think the credit markets aren't convinced this is the end of stories. And now you've got equities with more questions on their mind. You focus a lot as well on geopolitics. How concerned are you about IP theft? You know, hugely. I think this has been one of our biggest complaints, and probably for the last six months I feel we're one of the few complaining about cheap Chinese compute.

3:22The fact that China distills models, so basically steals from us, and that they are doing everything in their power to catch up on their chip's deficiency, right? They're really working hard on that. And I think people forget, you go back to, say, 2005, if you looked at the IP, you know, the U.S. owned almost all the IT, China had very little. Some was easy to replicate because once it's already out there, you can do it. But clearly they did some nefariously, right? There was IP theft. What's stopping them from doing this now? So we've been very worried that in this competition with China, we're playing one game and China's playing a longer and potentially dirtier game.

3:55And I think that's risen to the forefront. Whether this woman was a spy or not, I think it's kind of this realization America has to get behind this chip industry and figure out what we're doing because China cares about it deeply. Do you think this will move the balance of power in Washington towards those that say, I don't care about making sure that the whole world is on our tech stack. We need to really put up the walls when it comes to China. I think it will. I think we've already been headed that way a little bit. And you're seeing it globally. Like Europe's all of a sudden in the last few months realized, wow, we can't rely on China or America.

4:25So I think each country, each region is going to be trying desperately hard to build up their own chip stack and their compute capacity. At this point, there is concern about what this means when it comes to policy uncertainty. But the idea that it could be a tail risk for the entire tech sector, can you extrapolate that? Is that because of the fact that NVIDIA is financing companies like Intel, where the shares are down significantly, not to mention the core weaves and the nebbias and even the anthropics of the world? I think that's part of the tail risk. To me, it's just you watch this force of nature.

4:58He kind of came through, and any time there was doubts or any questions about the markets, NVIDIA earnings came out. Any time there seemed to be like, ooh, how's this financing going to get done, NVIDIA seemed to come up with a solution, right? And it's really hard to tell whether it was NVIDIA or Jensen Wong. A lot of it looks like it was Jensen himself. So if you had kind of this huge problem solver, right, this real leader, and you go back to whether it's a Steve Jobs or Bill Gates, people who really led their corporations, Jensen seems to be that same force of nature. And if he's gone or sidelined, do we get that growth?

5:27If the next time we hit a road bump, does it stop? Whoever kind of takes charge of this industry, do they navigate Washington as well as he's done, right? He's done a phenomenal job navigation, Washington, both under the Biden administration and under the Trump administration. Does someone else have the capacity to step in, given all the regulatory changes, all the rules going on? I think missing him is important. He was just such a catalyst. How much more of a clearing event is the Anthropic IPO that's scheduled to price next week, given now the proof is in the pudding about whether you can get a deal done with all of the uncertainty on the policy side and now with this new drama at NVIDIA?

6:01I think that is still the biggest event for this market. Even with NVIDIA now, let's see how this plays out. But with the Anthropic, Monday, Tuesday, we were rallying because it came out, looks all good. It does this question it. And it's interesting because it brings what would be normally private data to the public sector. So we get to see a lot more. You'll have a lot more questions. So I think this is going to be, if this deal gets done and they raise, I'm less concerned about the valuation, though that's important, and how much money they raise. I think they really should be raising enough money that they can say, hey, we don't need to come to the market to borrow money or raise equity for months, if not a year to come.

6:34That, to me, would be the real calming event. if they decide to raise too little money and feel like they're coming back to the market. I think all that pressure starts back on bond yields, which then will again transfer into equities. Will the NVIDIA drama mean for Anthropic a reallocation of capital? That I don't know. It's too early to me to see where this is all playing out. And again, I think, as you pointed out, there are other chip companies that are chomping at the bit to see how can they fit in, how can they grow their business. At the same time, I'm sure China sees opportunity. That's what really scares me.

7:05Does China see this opportunity? hey, we can fill the void. If there's any uncertainty, any slowdown in this kind of rapid pace in the U.S., China's trying to step in. That, to me, is a big concern. I think that, to me, is the bigger concern. Open versus close model. Open versus close and just China's ability. I think they're behind on chips but trying to catch up. They're ahead on electricity in the grid, and they're ahead on engineers, just the sheer numbers. So that, to me, is the race. And we had a bunch of states that said kind of no to data centers. I think, ultimately, that's just bringing them back to the table.

7:31And what I am waiting to see, whether it's the Louisiana's other states just raised their hand and say, we'll build as many data centers as we can. So there's so many moving parts. This just added more confusion to it. Stay with us. More Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

7:48If you invest, lead a business or allocate capital, one-sided views aren't enough. Join me, Brad Rogoff, the Global Head of Research at Barclays, on the Flipside podcast. Each month, I go head-to-head with one of our expert analysts on my global team to debate the economic and market issues that matter most. From inflation and AI to equity and credit trends, each debate helps you see what headlines might miss. Find the flip side wherever you get your podcasts. The world of business is constantly evolving. Every day, new challenges, new opportunities, new ways of working. Comcast Business keeps you totally in step with secure AI-backed networking built to power the way modern business gets things done today in more than 100 countries around the world.

8:36That's some serious muscle. And get this, Comcast Business powers over 90 % of the Fortune 500 and millions of small businesses. Behind it all, network engineers, cybersecurity specialists, support teams, thousands of experts answering your call at 2 a.m. like it's 2 p.m. Always on, always ready. That's a lot of coffee. One partner powering how business gets done for companies of every size all around the globe. When you add it all up, no one does business like Comcast Business. Running a small business takes everything you've got. But with Chase for Business, you're not alone. They bring together local support and a broad range of resources to more than 7 million customers.

9:20With a deep understanding of your day-to-day needs, they provide products and guidance built to help you thrive. Right now, earn$500 when you open a new Chase Business Complete Checking account for new business checking customers with qualifying activities. Offer expires January 21st, 2027. Chase Business Complete Checking has the flexible tools you need to accept payments, make deposits, and manage your finances with confidence. Learn more at chase.com slash podcast biz offer. Chase, make more of what's yours. Fees may apply to Chase Business Complete Checking Accounts. The$500 offer is available for new business checking accounts with qualifying activities through 1-21-2027.

10:00Eligibility and qualification requirements must be met. Additional restrictions may apply. Please speak with a business banker for more information. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., member FDIC.

10:15Right now, joining us, former Defense Department Undersecretary Brad Carson, who wrote, the scrutiny on NVIDIA is going to make it much harder to successfully lobby the administration to pull export control measures meant to keep advanced chips out of China's hands. Former Undersecretary of Defense Brad Carson joins us now for more. Thank you so much for being with us, Brad. I just want to start with your assessment of the potential national security risk that has been unfolding before us. How do you make, what do you make of just how much has been kind of put at risk as a result of the unfolding scandal at NVIDIA?

10:50I think we're having for the first time more notice about what's been put at risk over the last couple of years. NVIDIA is probably the most critical company in the world making these world-class chips that are essential to the AI revolution. We know that NVIDIA has turned a blind eye, maybe more, to the smuggling of chips into China. Today, China, especially the Chinese army, loves those chips. It's perhaps one-third of their total compute power. It's fueling the Chinese AI revolution. And we've always been skeptical of this. And now perhaps we know why NVIDIA has been so blithe to what's been clearly a smuggling operation.

11:25Do you think commerce has a role to play here? And where do you think the real failure was in terms of their investigation with Megaspeed and basically really giving Jensen Wong the red carpet treatment? That's exactly right. Far more scandalous than simply an affair is the fact that the Department of Commerce listened to the NVIDIA General Counsel and stopped the Department of Commerce investigation into the NVIDIA smuggling. And so it's clear that NVIDIA is very close to the administration. The administration has been ambivalent about these export controls. Fortunately, on Capitol Hill, both Democrats and Republicans are very seized of the issue, very strongly in support of these export controls.

12:05But NVIDIA has lobbied against them. They have used both covert and overt means to try to subvert them. And so I think now we're just realizing that NVIDIA is too important a company to allow them to continue this kind of influence campaign to subvert the American national interest. Lisa and I were just talking about the difference between China getting access to the hardware, which obviously is at the storm of this mega speed controversy. But they do have access to renting computing power that these data centers are powered with NVIDIA chips. Do you think that gap in Washington is going to be something that lawmakers try to go after?

12:41They must go after. These are called know your customer laws. And you're exactly right. We need to stop them from getting access to the hardware themselves for their own data centers. We also need to make sure they can't just rent, compute, or even establish a data center in the West that would give them access to the top NVIDIA chips. Right now, that is a loophole. Many in Congress are asking the Department of Commerce to close that loophole, but commerce doesn't seem to be particularly motivated to do it. So that is the next frontier, is making sure that China or other bad actors can't rent, compute from American data centers and get access to the chips that they otherwise couldn't have.

13:14One of the reluctances to really engage with the most stringent of export controls has been that China owns a lot of the rare earth minerals and has been threatening to withhold them from the United States in retaliation should the U.S. really restrain its exports of chips. How much should this be weighed? I mean, how do you understand this dilemma ahead of next week's summit in China between Xi Jinping and President Trump? Well, it shows you how important it is, and the Trump administration is actually doing this to make sure we're not dependent on another nation for rare earth minerals. It is true that China, largely due to their lax environmental laws, leads the world in rare earth mineral production.

13:52We could do that in other countries, do it in the U.S. It's predatory on the environment, and so we often choose not to do so. But we have to have our own supply. But we must get China away from having access to our chips and get away from any bargaining power that they have. because these chips are really what fuels the AI revolution. China could not compete with us were it not for the illegally obtained chips. And it's just probably the most dangerous thing to American national interest right now. With the chips that have already been obtained by China, how close is China, would you say, to superseding the U.S.

14:26when it comes to AI technology? They're not close to superseding us, but right now they're probably six to eight months behind us. But if we were to rigorously enforce the chips and also enforce kind of prohibitions on another technique they use called distillation, where they're accessing the American models and then creating smaller versions of it. If we were to impose both of those on them, plus perhaps add semiconductor manufacturing equipment restrictions and enforce those better, we could probably have at least a two to three year lead, maybe longer over China, which would allow us more flexibility in U.S.

14:58policymaking about pausing or pacing and not worry so much about the Chinese threat. So they're not going to overtake us, but they are nipping at our heels. But we've really helped drag them along. And we have to stop doing that to help tether the cord that's pulling them up, too. Stay with us. More Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

15:20The world of business is constantly evolving. Every day, new challenges, new opportunities, new ways of working. Comcast Business keeps you totally in step with secure AI-backed networking built to power the way modern business gets things done today in more than 100 countries around the world. That's some serious muscle. And get this, Comcast Business powers over 90 % of the Fortune 500 and millions of small businesses. Behind it all, network engineers, cybersecurity specialists, support teams, thousands of experts answering your call at 2 a.m. like it's 2 p.m. Always on, always ready. That's a lot of coffee.

16:02One partner powering how business gets done for companies of every size all around the globe. When you add it all up, no one does business like Comcast Business. Running a small business takes everything you've got. But with Chase for Business, you're not alone. They bring together local support and a broad range of resources to more than 7 million customers. With a deep understanding of your day-to-day needs, they provide products and guidance built to help you thrive. Right now, earn$500 when you open a new Chase Business Complete Checking account for new business checking customers with qualifying activities.

16:37Offer expires January 21st, 2027. Chase Business Complete Checking has the flexible tools you need to accept payments, make deposits, and manage your finances with confidence. Learn more at chase.com slash podcast biz offer. Chase, make more of what's yours. Fees may apply to Chase Business Complete Checking Accounts. The$500 offer is available for new business checking accounts with qualifying activities through 1-21-2027. Eligibility and qualification requirements must be met. Additional restrictions may apply. Please speak with a business banker for more information. JPMorgan Chase Bank, NA.

17:12Member FDIC. For big business, AI opened up a world of promise, but that world of promise turned into a world of pain. Cost spiraling, data scattered across disconnected systems, security and governance increasingly complex, AI initiatives struggling to scale, and ROI that remains frustratingly out of reach. The challenge isn't AI itself, it's having the infrastructure AI needs to succeed, which is right where Boomi says we got you. Tens of thousands of enterprises trust Boomi to connect data, applications, processes, and AI. With Boomi, businesses can eliminate silos, automate workflows, strengthen governance, and create the foundation AI needs to perform at scale.

17:55The result? Faster innovation, more efficiency, better business outcomes. Boomi turns a world of AI pain into a world of AI gain. As Boomi says, we got you. Head to boomi.com to learn more. That's B-O-O-M-I dot com.

18:16Let's stick with our big story, which is NVIDIA. NVIDIA's board weighing CEO Jensen Huang's fate following reports of multiple affairs, including one with an alleged Chinese spy, Matt Whithiler of Wellington Management, Joining us today, the news just breaking that NVIDIA's Jensen Huang has resigned as CEO. The interim CEO will be CFO Colette Kress. And they are going to go ahead with reporting earnings next week as planned. What do you make of this? How significant is this for the entire AI ecosystem? I think for the AI ecosystem, this is an isolated event. And I think that if you look at NVIDIA holistically, you have a company that is the dominant supplier to the AI ecosystem.

18:59And that isn't going to change whether Collette is in charge or Jensen's in charge. And so I think that independent of what goes on in NVIDIA, the AI trade, in my opinion, will continue. How much certainty do you have that NVIDIA can continue to act as central bank to the tech trade? The idea that they have backed so many different startups, but also mid-sized and larger companies, including Anthropic, with their IPO, given the number of shares that they have pledged to purchase. Is this going to continue, given the lack of transparency around some of this? I think that it's an open question on the level of continuation we see in some of this funding.

19:34But what I will say is that there's a perception that this funding has propped up the AI ecosystem, that NVIDIA has been the supplier of capital to these struggling companies. And I think if you look actually under the covers, you will see that NVIDIA is a small part of the whole funding ecosystem here with the AI trade. And so it is a component, but in my opinion, it is not a critical component to the AI boom that we're seeing. Serious key man risk, though, with the stock taking another leg lower, down more than 10 % now. What does this mean for the competitors of NVIDIA? I think it's a really interesting question because on one hand, if you think about NVIDIA and NVIDIA's products, these aren't products that are released and developed in a month or a quarter.

20:18These are multi-year development cycles, multi-year release cycles. So if you take a step back, you think about the implications for NVIDIA from a product perspective, I think we're looking at no change in product or strategy for two or three years at this point. But is there true revenue risk, given the fact that what's going on in Singapore, they've decided to not show that anymore for about a year now? And people are saying maybe it's 10, 20 percent that's getting moved to China. I think that is a question that I don't know the answer to. But I do think that any potential weakness with NVIDIA's products and supply of their products will benefit the other challengers to NVIDIA's AI dominance.

20:59And that would be companies like Google. That'd be companies like Amazon, the TPU and Tranium chips, respectively. That would be companies like Broadcom that are supporting this ecosystem. And it would also be a new crop of private companies that we have the benefit of seeing from a whole picture perspective, the private and public side, and seeing some of these new startups being able to compete with NVIDIA on the inference side. What does this mean, though, on a broader level for you, Matt, about governance? at a number of these tech companies. There have been a lot of colorful personalities who have been the founders and the CEOs of the tech giants and the AI frontier models that have come to the fore.

21:34At what point does that become an increasing risk that needs to be addressed? I think what's interesting with this particular situation is the way that I understand it, unlike some of the newer tech companies in the public market, NVIDIA went public quite a while ago, and actually Jensen didn't have supermajority voting shares like we see in some of these other private companies that go public. And I think what you see is that even in absence of that, you have a situation that ended unfortunately that ultimately the board decided to act on. And I think that would be no different if we were looking at some of these private companies that had similar structures, except with the supermajority control.

22:11Would you be buying Nvidia shares this morning? I am not a public market expert, and so I can't answer that question. But I do think, as I mentioned earlier, that independent of who is in charge of Nvidia, the strategy, the product lineup, and the near-term dominance of the product in the market, that is not going to unwind in the next month because Colette becomes CEO instead of Jensen. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from 6am to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.

22:48And as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App.

22:55If you listen to financial news, you know a lot of time is spent thinking about what's next. The next opportunity. The next investment. The next move. But sometimes what matters most is being ready for what you never saw coming. For more than 75 years, Cincinnati Insurance has worked with independent agents to help protect businesses, homes, valuables, and more. Because planning for the future isn't only about knowing what's next. It's about making sure you're ready for what you can't predict. Let Cincinnati Insurance make your bad day better. Find an independent agent at CINFIN.com. Quick question for you.

23:34How much of your day is spent typing? Email, Slack, notes, prompts to chat GPT? Whisperflow is a voice-to-text app. Instead of typing, you talk and it types for you. In any app on your Mac, Windows, iPhone, or Android. It takes out the ums, fixes the typos, and the result sounds like you wrote it. four times faster than typing. So the email that used to take two minutes now takes 30 seconds. Whisperflow is free. Download it at whisperflow.ai. That's W-I-S-P-R flow.ai. Until now, the data your AI depends on has been trapped behind ever-increasing cloud fees. Wasabi created hot cloud storage and is redefining cloud storage for the AI era, delivering simple, predictable cloud storage for AI, analytics, media, and more.

24:16Your data is free to move, fast to access, and ready when your AI needs it. Hidden fees add up fast as AI workloads grow. Wasabi's flat pricing eliminates all of it. One rate, no surprises. Learn more and try now for free at wasabi.com. Wasabi, the AI storage cloud. Proud partner of the iHeart Podcast Network.