Bloomberg Surveillance TV: November 13th, 2026

0:00Dan Ives: If you invest, lead a business, or allocate capital, one-sided views aren't enough. Join me, Brad Rogoff, the Global Head of Research at Barclays, on the Flipside podcast. Each month, I go head-to-head with one of our expert analysts on my global team to debate the economic and market issues that matter most. From inflation and AI to equity and credit trends, each debate helps you see what headlines might miss. Find the Flipside wherever you get your podcasts. for big business ai opened up a world of promise but that world of promise turned into a world of pain cost spiraling data trapped security and governance risks multiplying and roi out of reach that's why enterprises turned to boomi to connect data apps and ai helping them operate securely efficiently and at scale boomi turns a world of ai pain into a world of ai gain as boomi says We got you.

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1:49Dan Ives: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Farrow, along with Lisa Abramowitz and Anne-Marie Haudern. Join us each day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. From our global headquarters in New York City, we are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from 6 to 9 a.m. Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. And as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. Here's a view from Wall Street. Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives maintaining an app before my NVIDIA while cutting his price target to$225, writing the$3 to$4 trillion of AI CapEx is not changing, and NVIDIA remains the one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution.

2:29I was expected to see it transformed Dan Ives today with a full black suit. He is not yet. I assume you have to go shopping.

2:37Dan Ives: No, me and Farrow, we're going to go shopping probably in the next few weeks, and I will commit to that in terms of a Farrow-approved, probably dark blue sports jacket. I am wondering, though, you're maintaining positivity even as you downgrade the price of the stock. What makes you think that they can continue, not necessarily next year or the year after, but with the creativity and the cult of personality beyond that to drive the valuations that a lot of people were talking about before? Look, the reality is that Jensen was worth a trillion dollars for the valuation. And there's no doubt. He was the hearts and lungs of the NVIDIA story.

3:10Dan Ives: And it's a dark day for NVIDIA, a black eye for Jensen in terms of the way that this ultimately ends. But for NVIDIA, they're two to three years ahead of China. They're two to three years ahead of any competition in the US. Now with Jensen gone, that clearly evens the playing field. And that will be now for Colette and whoever the next CEO is, that's going to be the challenge for NVIDIA. But I just view it, the valuation, and I know many calling fire on a crowd theater right now in terms of negative on NVIDIA, the valuation without Jensen,$225 per share. With him, it's$300. So it's a different story.

3:46Dan Ives: But that's why I just continue to believe like they will, the$3 to$4 trillion of spend, they're going to get a significant piece. But the tech is the tech. These chips are the best chips in the world. So why such a downgrade? Well, Jensen is the core fabric of NVIDIA. The reality is not just globally in terms of what NVIDIA has been able to build, but even when you think from a customer perspective, if big companies need a chip, who do they call? In the red, it's Jensen. Now, internally, the 42 ,000 employees, that's obviously a core part of where NVIDIA is today. But to say NVIDIA is the same company without Jensen would be sure, Courtney, they're not.

4:33Dan Ives: But then it comes down to, in this AI revolution, they will continue to lead, but it's a gut-check moment for them. I continue to believe a Tim Cook, potentially in the cash and pal out. There are others, I think, external candidates because of how important it is to the U.S. technology. That's what the president is asking for. Well, to me, the big thing that separated China from the U.S. when it came to technology and the AI revolution is Jensen. He's out. So do you have confidence in the CFO coming in? And do you think the company, employees have confidence? There's been some reports where apparently she has questioned some of Jensen Wong's deal makings.

5:14And according to the New York Wall Street Journal, he called her a deer in the headlights. And actually, he belittled her. Is she going to have that confidence of the team around her?

5:24Dan Ives: Well, I always thought that she was going to be a CEO of a major tech company. So in my view, I always viewed her as like if there was going to be a CEO, she was in that sort of mix. The pure natural one to take over as an interim CEO. But I do believe that when you think about a longer term CEO, there's a percent chance that she gets it. I think she'll instill confidence internally and externally, more of an iron fist. And I think that's what you need right now. But in terms of as an external, I view it, it's a Tim Cook. It's a Korean from Google. Like, it's one of those that I think will ultimately probably be CIA.

6:06So everyone's been saying, or most people have been saying, that one man is not the tech trade. Yes, this is a very important man, but a lot of the other tech advancements are going to be ongoing, and you still see the AI kind of ongoing adoption throughout corporate America. And then all of a sudden we're faxing and using WhatsApp in order to communicate with one another because Microsoft is down with all of their servers or some of their surveyors and a real kink in the plans of everything from schools to hospitals to major companies that had to delay some of their earnings reports. How do you understand this in terms of, A, what happened here, and B, the vulnerability of some centrally placed big tech companies that are coming under increasing scrutiny?

6:43Dan Ives: Yeah, I mean, Microsoft, I'm going to have the fax machine already. I can't wait for Knight Rider and Dynasty tonight. It's great. I feel like back in the 80s, the Ghostbusters, yeah. So it's great that they created that. Look, this is, it's a disaster moment for Microsoft because the reality is that this, call it Friday the 13th or whatever, it's a global outage when it comes to Outlook. It's not from a revenue perspective, legally what happened. You're talking about a company with Nadella in the AI era. One of the leaders that I, when I think about the AI revolution, you can't just now sit here with Outlook down millions of people and some guy in the server room in the flashlight trying to fix it.

7:25Dan Ives: And I think that right now is the longer this goes on, there's more questions from Microsoft about how this happens. Well, how do you sort of discount the increasing regulatory scrutiny, the increasing pushback from a community standpoint? And then the increasing, I mean, whether it's cybersecurity or whether it's just, you know, human malfunction or whether it's just simply the fact that you can't get around the physical world. There are going to be increasing clampdowns on this technology that will have to exact a certain price, no? Well, I think there's two parts. One, part of what we see with the anti-data center and everything in terms of with the elections, it's because these big tech companies themselves, they cause the PR black eye.

8:05Dan Ives: Because they're out there saying that they're going to cut 50 % of jobs. Microsoft, including when it comes to AI. Now you can't fix Outlook and you have millions that are out. So it just shows that you could talk and you got to actually see from a technology perspective. you're going to have more scrutiny in DC not just from the Nvidia relative to China export controls the Microsoft that just adds to it because as the strong gets stronger relative to AI revolution you're seeing the spider web that now takes place I don't think it slows down AI revolution but I think to some extent it's probably healthy that you have guardrails in there especially on the Nvidia side Stay with us, more Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this

8:53Dan Ives: If you invest, lead a business, or allocate capital, one-sided views aren't enough. Join me, Brad Rogoff, the Global Head of Research at Barclays, on the Flipside podcast. Each month, I go head-to-head with one of our expert analysts on my global team to debate the economic and market issues that matter most. From inflation and AI to equity and credit trends, each debate helps you see what headlines might miss. Find the flip side wherever you get your podcasts.

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10:04We begin this hour with stocks rising, yields steadying ahead of more inflation data. Priya Misra of J.P. Morgan Asset Management writing, Continued AI wobbles will bring demand for treasuries given how dependent the economy is on AI. We think fair value for the 10-year is 4.5 % to 5.25%. So owning some duration makes sense. Priya joins us now. Priya, great to see you. Thanks for having me. I feel like you and Chris Verone, open to duration, should put on your LinkedIn profiles. I am curious, though, how you view the wobbles in tech and why we haven't seen a rally in treasuries on the heels of the NVIDIA problems.

10:39Sure. So I think treasuries are a safe haven when you think that the Fed is not behind the curve. I think the talk of 50 basis points really opens up the scan of worms. Is the Fed behind the curve? Do they have to hike, you know, 100, 200 basis points? So I think there was some concern about that this week. And then economic data, you know, treasuries are a hedge when you start to worry about growth. What did we have over the last week? I mean, it feels like one of the longest short weeks we've had in the bond market for a long time. But we had a pretty strong, strong payroll report. We had a very strong CPI report.

11:11The CPI breadth was actually fairly wide. And so I think people are saying, well, maybe inflation is not coming down. This is not a supply shock story. The labor market looks strong. We still look under the hood and there's no sign of wage inflation. Wage inflation, I know the last report was a little bit higher, but if you look over a six-month period, wages are continuing to decelerate. You look under the hood on CPI, there's still elements of that supply shock. You know, goods are still high. You know, we look at rent inflation. That's extremely cyclical. That's not picking up. So, I still think, and this is the big debate in the bond market, is this a mid-cycle adjustment for the Fed?

11:48Are they just going to hike three, four times? And I think that's where the majority of the Fed is at. Or is this a reassessment of productivity is that much higher? Neutral rate is much higher. We're not seeing signs of that. But I think if we're really talking about this three to four hikes. There's no urgency to go 50. I don't think, you know, President Williams yesterday didn't sound like he's in the 50 camp. I think Governor Waller is sort of a minority here. The Fed might hike in December. They might hike again in Jan. And that's already in the price, which is why owning duration makes sense.

12:20This might be a stretch, but is NVIDIA sort of an example of the peak in a cycle, a sort of blow up in sort of the narrative? Or is it just an anecdote at a time of a lot of turmoil. And I ask this because I spoke with Ed Bastian yesterday of Delta, the CEO, and I asked him about the return on investment from AI. And he said it's very early innings. They're not necessarily seeing identifiable ROI in a way that's going to really transform their business. You do hear this from an increasing number of real businesses out there that aren't necessarily focused on the most advanced tech. Right. So I think when we think about AI, there's the technology.

12:56I mean, there's no question. It's transformational. We're using it. There's the economics. And I think last week was a lot about that economy. Over the last, I'd say over the last month, it's been about the economics. You know, there's a whole lot of sort of capacity constraints, you know, whether it's chips, whether it's the bond market, I think questions around the cost of capital. And then there's the politics. Last week was all politics. So I think it's still early innings in terms of seeing that productivity pick up. We don't think that the rise in productivity over the last year or the last few years is really because of AI.

13:29I think we're all using it. We're all trying to figure out how is this going to increase output. Hopefully it doesn't mean a loss in jobs. We haven't seen it, but I do think we're in a low high or low fire, you know, labor market, which is not suggesting strengthening. It's not suggesting heat. I think we actually, for a Fed chair that doesn't give us any forward guidance, he did sort of suggest that at the end of the press conference, that there's no heat. I think it comes down to this question. We're using it, but is it actually raising productivity? Is it actually, you know, being transformational on the economics front?

14:02I think there's a question there. And now with NVIDIA, I mean, who knows whether this is going to be just one-off storm in a teacup. But I do think Jensen Wang was sort of the godfather of AI. And so do you have more political risk come in, not just the data center pushback, but export controls? You know, let's just try and see if we want it to grow this fast, which from a credit market standpoint is actually not a bad thing because, you know, when companies were falling over themselves to issue a ton and do capex and there's this race to the bottom, you kind of worry that are you overdoing it?

14:33Is there misallocation of resources? Now, if it actually elongates the cycle, that's actually not bad. Let's continue to do the credit work. And I think that's why credit has been so remarkably resilient. You mentioned the labor market there. Do you think this Federal Reserve is worried about the labor market slowing down? We heard a little bit of that yesterday, as Lisa was mentioning from Waller. Excuse me, Williams. I'm glad you bring this up because it is interesting. There's nothing in the data that I would suggest. Initial claims are low. Why are they talking about the labor market? They have to understand that when real rates rise, at some point that does start to impact economic data.

15:09And it happens with a lag. Interest rates have risen a lot this year, and it's been in real rate terms. So we may not be seeing it in financial conditions, but do we start to see it in the labor market? I think that's why this 50 talk concerns me, because that means a market will price in more 50s. Do you think the market is reacting more in the inflation data or the comments from Waller? Great point. I do think it's the comments from Governor Waller. So if we just had hot inflation data, but not those comments, we would have a different market reaction. I think we would not have seen a 30 basis point move in the two years.

15:41I think rates would have risen. We might have added another hike in January, but would we have taken terminal rate that much high? I think if they go 50, it's a huge messaging problem. How do they communicate 50 and done? especially from a Fed chair that doesn't want any forward guidance. So if they go 50, then we're going to price in more 50s and a neutral rate that's much higher. And I think that's what the market started to price in. If he's a minority, I think we can start to ignore it. And I would say so far, even from the hawks, I would listen to Beth Hammock, you know, Lori Logan. They're all talking about maybe the Fed has to hike more, but let's calibrate it slowly over time.

16:16Let's go 25s. If the market is really sniffing out some sort of economic slowdown, why are you seeing high-yield bond spreads tightening. Why are you seeing credit actually sending a signal of strength? So I think it's a couple of things. Rates have risen. So these all-in yields, you're getting 6%, 7 % in investment grade, 8%, 9 % in high yield. I think that's bringing demand in. I do think the market may be just concerned around that tail risk. Why is CCC that much wider? We're not touching CCC, really, because that's idiosyncratic. And if the economy slows down, that's the highest beta. But you're right.

16:48I think there's just this tail risk starting to get priced in, it's not anyone's base case of the economy slowing down.

16:54Dan Ives: Stay with us. More Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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18:36NVIDIA still very much in focus. Democratic Senators Chris Coons and Elizabeth Warren pressing the Trump administration to preserve records tied to NVIDIA's advanced chip sales following reports of Jensen Huang's extramarital affairs, including one with a suspected Chinese spy. Writing, this incident raises significant concerns about the federal government's ability to effectively enforce our export controls and protect our national security. Democratic Senator Chris Coons joins us now for more. Senator Coons, thank you so much for being with us. I want to start with the expectation that you have going into next week with the meeting between Xi and Trump in China.

19:15Do you have any sense of how the issue around NVIDIA and chips and export controls will be addressed in this meeting?

19:23Dan Ives: I hope it will be. Look, frankly, we are in a fierce competition with China. In many ways, they are our adversary. In other ways, they are our competitor. And in the race for AI dominance, there are four key drivers, energy, talent, and chips and data. The Chinese are our peer competitor in three out of four. It is in chips and chip design and chip manufacturing that the United States has sustained an advantage. I expect that tariffs and chips will be on the table when President Trump, President Xi meet. But the fact that this was a direct intelligence action at the CEO of a$4 trillion American global company that manufactures in Taiwan the most important, most advanced chips, and that Secretary Howard Lutnick of the Commerce Department has some real questions to answer about how he continued to license these chips exports and how it was that Jensen Wang continued to fly with Trump on Air Force One and be very close to the Trump administration.

20:26Dan Ives: That's something we in Congress have real questions about. That's something I hope Trump will fight hard for America's advantage in the world and not simply cave and hand an advantage to Xi Jinping. Has the Commerce Department Center responded to your letter, especially regarding H-200 shipments? Not that I'm aware of. Look, Secretary Lutnik was at the very center of this. It's been his position for some time that we should be doing more to export. Look, frankly, I don't really care about Jensen Huang's personal affairs. He let his family down. He let his company down. But I would argue that it's Howard Lutnick who let America down.

21:06Dan Ives: And if intelligence reports, credible intelligence reports were provided that this company, Megaspeed, was receiving advanced chips through illicit channels and they didn't act on it, that's putting the American people at risk. Do you have evidence now that national security was compromised? Have you been briefed on some of this intelligence? No, I don't have concrete evidence. That's the point of having an investigation. That's the point of asking for document retention. But it sure feels weird. It sure seems like something bad has happened. And between the$26 million that we know about in contributions from NVIDIA to the Trump administration, you know, for the ballroom and the inaugural and press accounts intimating that there was more than closeness, that this may have gone over the line into corruption.

21:56Dan Ives: That's exactly what the American people expect us to be investigating. Look, the election last Tuesday wasn't just any average midterm. It was the most seismic shift since, frankly, Watergate. It was the biggest move in my party's direction since 1974. And I think the average American expects us to do things that will lower their costs, improve their quality of life and address the war with Iran and tariffs. There was also a lot of concern raised about corruption and how overly cozy relationships between Donald Trump and major companies run by people like Elon Musk and Jensen Huang is hurting the opportunity that the average American should have.

22:38Senator Coons, one thing that the Trump administration did was take stakes in about 41 different companies in the tech sector, having to do with a critical infrastructure. Intel was put on one of them. Others may be less clear. Will the Democrats seek to offload the stakes that the government has taken in some of those companies?

22:58Dan Ives: Look, I dislike the idea of the U.S. government literally taking equity interests in major companies. That's almost definitely, that's like almost the definition of socialism, is to have the government own the means of production. I understand that it may have been justified as a way to de-risk major investments in things like critical minerals investments, but those deserve a close look, both how they happened, who benefited, and whether these are being managed in a way that actually lines up with the interests of the American people. Senator, there's a lot of shifting of power happening right now, even within your own party.

23:36Are you going to back Senator Chris Van Hollen or Senator Schumer when it comes to leading the majority in the Senate?

23:42Dan Ives: I've spoken with both of them. Look, I've been a U.S. senator 16 years. I will be chairing the Foreign Relations Committee in January. What I care about most is that we hear what the American people are saying to us, both about change and about the folks who, frankly, Senator Schumer, as well as senators at Gillibrand and Bunt Rochester and Kelly had a key hand in recruiting and fundraising and supporting. As I was saying to one of my colleagues last night, we're like the baseball team that just won the World Series and we're going to fire the manager. That's probably the best argument for retaining Senator Schumer as our leader and some of the core people who helped him bring us to this electoral victory.

24:24Dan Ives: On the other hand, and I've talked to Senator Van Hollen about this, there's a clear message for a younger generation of some of the really inspiring voices that we've heard on the stage and that I've met campaigning with and for them. I'm at a conference in Denver where a lot of young and talented mayors, governors, attorneys general, senators are here speaking. Older folks like me are mostly listening, which is the right posture for us to have. But just to throw one name out, James Tallarico spoke on the main stage last night and was genuinely inspiring. We will have Democratic senators in January in states like Mississippi, Kansas, Iowa, Texas, and not just the occasional Democratic senator.

25:08Dan Ives: In states like North Carolina and Texas, we ran the table. There's now gonna be a Democratic governor and attorney general and secretary of state. In states as red as Georgia, Texas, and North Carolina, that is striking. Our leader of our caucus needs to be someone who gets that message and who shows a willingness to move in a new direction. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics. You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV, weekday mornings from 6am to 9am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen.

25:44Dan Ives: And as always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App.

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