OpenAI Weighs IPO in 2027

23:42Ed Ludlow:$25 billion from SpaceX. What do we need to understand about that figure or those figures, Robert? Yeah, well, no pun intended, but this bond deal is not blowing up. Spreads are wider. We're about 15 to 25 wider out the curve, which shows that you can't make money every single day in the markets. It doesn't change the overall picture, though, of this investment grade, stable credit that has lots of borrowing capacity going forward as it builds its business. But I think everyone is pointing towards the daily moves of the sky is falling, looking for the day that AI valuations are going to completely turn.

24:21We've been to this dance before. It happens every couple of months. And I just think this is a little bit overstated. Bondholders are feeling a little bit of pain these days.

24:30Ed Ludlow:I just don't think it's going to last. Separating Bloomberg News reporting on what's happening with these bonds, Robert Shiffman leads our research of corporate credit. And that's really important. What you said there on IG rating, investment grade rating is really important because SpaceX basically has a rating from the agencies that puts it on par with some of the biggest technology companies in the world. The difference is that those big tech companies have positive cash flows. SpaceX doesn't. Explain why that matters. Well, it's interesting. These days, those companies, the Mount Rushmore of credits, the AA's and AAA's, Microsoft's, Amazon's, Meta's, and Alphabet's are actually free cash flow negative.

25:12They're spending more money after CapEx and shareholder returns than they're pulling in. And that's why they're raising so much money. It's part of the reason why Alphabet raised$85 billion of equity just a few weeks ago. So they're all sort of in the same boat. The difference, though, is that this is a triple B name, so it has less flexibility. It also is a new issue. where people don't really even know what SpaceX is. It's in a lot of different businesses, and they don't have a track record. What I would tell you, though, is that this name is rated higher than Oracle. It trades still tighter than Oracle.

25:44It doesn't look like a junk company, and it's not trading like a junk company, and I don't think it's going to. So I think these sort of near-term anomalies, like you get, you know, hedge funds are trying to make money. It was a down couple of days, both in the equity market and a little bit in the credit market. credit spreads are out about five basis points. I just don't think it's as big of a deal as it seems like it is.

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29:30Ed Ludlow:Welcome back to Bloomberg Tech. It has been a brutal week for the AI trade, but what's remarkable about it is it's in both directions. We have seen euphoria and big drops on equities with memory, the pricing and supply of memory chips at the heart of it. So Apple's up 1.4 % right now. But remember, 24 hours ago, it was in a session where it had its biggest drop in 16 months. Micron is down 4%, but had had a relatively unprecedented surge after a blowout earnings on Wednesday night. Overall, we're on track for the NASDAQ 100 at various points in this session to be down the most over a five-day basis since April of 2025.

30:09Ed Ludlow:So it kind of hangs in the balance. That nervousness went into the Asia session where basically memory pricing and supply being tight has been good for the memory makers, Micron principally. But the perspective of the market's changed. So you see Samsung and SK Hynix, the two leaders in memory, down significantly overnight. Because now the market's reacting to Apple raising prices on some of its hardware because of component costs, i.e. memory costs being higher. we're extrapolating out the next phase of it is the question is does this come full circle and dampen consumer demand that's the difficulty of it but it's been choppy trading again in aggregate the nasdaq 100 is now down about six cents a percent in the moment however on the week at various points in the session depending on where we close it could have its worst week since april 2025 let's get back to our top news story today that is that open ai is considering an ipo as soon as 2027, according to sources, a timeline that would potentially see it go public after its AI rival, Anthropic Bloomers.

31:16Ed Ludlow:Anthony Hughes is here on the banks and IPO beat. Look, this is relatively consistent with what OpenAI said June 8th when it disclosed its confidential filing. But there is some jeopardy in the sense that the banks working on this are doing both OpenAI's IPO and Anthropics, per our reporting. And what I put out earlier this hour is OpenAI seems pretty calm about the idea that they go third after SpaceX, Anthropic in the IPO sequence. What else do we need to know? Yeah, well, I think we've really portrayed this as a race between Anthropic and OpenAI to go public. But if that's the case, then OpenAI does seem to be losing the race.

31:55And as you say, I mean, they've really been giving off sort of mixed messages about how keen they are to really go. But you can see by their actions that they filed confidentially right after Anthropic did earlier this month. And I think certainly there's been a lot of mixed views around. I think from Anthropik's perspective, I think they seem to be ahead of OpenAI in terms of valuation, revenue growth, their ability to generate free cash flow over the next few years. So in that sense, Anthropik seems to be ahead of OpenAI. And I think probably there's a feeling within OpenAI that they don't want to be perceived to be behind Anthropik.

32:31But as you look at all the facts around the situation, it does seem like they are.

32:38Ed Ludlow:Antti, let me just catch the Boombotech audience up on a couple of points. One, SoftBank shares in Japan fell significantly overnight, and the US-listed shares are down again today. Because the New York Times had initially published the report about OpenAI's IPO going to 27. Of course, SoftBank is massively economically and financially exposed to OpenAI. But we're also showing shares of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs down pretty significantly in this U.S. trading session. Our report came out an hour ago. Why would those two banks in particular be lower on this news without drawing too much of a direct or causal relationship?

33:17Yeah, well, I think there's just a sentiment around the fact that the banks are expected to do very well out of these IPOs based on the fees that they collected on SpaceX recently. But, you know, I think that's probably just a bit of a knee-jerk reaction. And we know that the banks are going to do very well this year in terms of their fees from areas like equity capital markets and M &A and the like. So, you know, that might just be a bit of a short term reaction on a tough day in the main.

33:45Ed Ludlow:There is a lot going on and we're going to keep tracking it. Bloomberg's Anthony Hughes. Thank you very much indeed. South Korea's stock market has surged about 200 percent year on year, powered by an AI fuel chip rally. But extreme volatility and heavy reliance on just two companies may mean it's a bubble waiting to burst. Bloomberg Originals has the story. South Korea may have an ant problem. Although it's not these type of ants, but rather these.

34:20There are more than 14 million retail investors in South Korea who are called ants. Individually, they don't have much power, but collectively, they have a greater influence in the market. These ants have been busy. Not by more than 100 % so far this year. Just an unbelievable rally. It's really quite extraordinary what's happening in Korean stocks at the moment. The Kospi Index, which tracks Korea's public companies, climbed 200 % over the last 12 months. Compare that to other major markets like the S &P or even the Nasdaq, and Korea's performance blows them out of the water. That means it has more than tripled over the past 12 months.

35:03Retail investors, they've been the main driver of the cost fee. We can see signs of being a little bit maniac and a lot of people borrowing money to invest in stocks. And amid the mania is a mounting fear that a bubble will soon burst.

35:17Ed Ludlow:The AI bubble debate is absolutely raging right now. South Korea is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the global AI trade because it has two of the world's largest memory chip makers. Korean stocks are really maximizing being beneficiaries of the AI capex bubble. That's the amount of money that's pouring in around the world, but particularly in the US from the mega cap stocks into building AI data centers. So are South Korea's retail investors building towards the future or will they get wiped out? I don't have a strong insight of when it goes wrong. But when the AI bubble collapses, the pain in Korea is going to be extraordinary.

36:03Ed Ludlow:You can watch the full episode on Bloomberg.com. Let's get out to the 2026 Aspen Ideas Festival where Bloomberg Surveillance co-host Lisa Abramovitz is moderating a panel on affordability with Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari, Lyft CEO David Risher, and Whole Foods CEO Jason Mukau. And there is that. We also have never sold more black and black SUV rides. So this is sort of the K-shaped economy that you talk about, and you can sort of feel it every single day. Can you pass along price increases, though? We try not to. Okay, so that's a great point. So we try not to. So when our raw material prices go up, we try desperately not to.

36:41But here's the thing. Our biggest cost is labor. That is drivers. We have to pay them well in order for them to work on our platform. So to a certain extent, we have to pass prices along. We're going to get more into that in just a second. Jason, what about from your perspective? How much are you seeing this sort of concern about cost of living percolating through the business? Yeah, like David mentioned, I'm seeing a K-shaped economy here as well. I oversee all of our Amazon grocery business worldwide as well as Whole Foods market. And so we've got some consumers who are really focused on quality and differentiation, others around what is the lowest cost that I can get for products.

37:20And across the grocery space, what we're seeing is customers are no longer having a primary grocer. Over half of customers are in a situation where they are shopping many different retailers, three to four a week. And they're doing that to find the best deals and values, getting the selection that they're looking for. and they're having to navigate a very complex environment, but they're willing to do so. They're also buying things much more real time. So instead of doing a shop up or a stock up for one or two weeks, they're buying, you know, shopping multiple times. And they're doing this for two reasons.

37:52One, they're trying to stretch the dollars that they have based upon their immediate need that they have. And then at the same time, when you do a two-week shop up, you're going to have a lot more food waste. And so you're actually wasting the dollars that you've spent on it. So I think we're seeing a space here where customers are being much more conscious on how they're spending their dollars in the grocery space. And are you able to pass along price increases because of the bifurcation of the people who are able to pay versus those who cannot? Yeah, our focus here has actually been trying to find ways with our suppliers where we're not passing on and seeing those impacts at the item level.

38:25Now, some cases we've got areas I take, you know, beef is a great fit and great example. We've seen a lot of inflation. some of that cost is going to get passed on to the customer. But our focus has been, how do we actually find ways within other parts of the business so we can invest in price? We've doubled the number of promotions within the Whole Foods Market banner. We've reduced prices across 13 ,000 grocery items within Amazon. And so at this point, we want to make sure that we can be relevant to the situation that our customers are experiencing. President Kashkari, it brings us to you, because right now people are taking a look at Core PCE, which just came in at the highest pace going back to 2023, that was reported just earlier this week.

39:06We see PCE coming in at 4.1%, accelerating in the wrong direction. What's the Fed's role in trying to curb some of this inflation that seems to be moving in the wrong direction? Well, first of all, thanks for having me. And please call me Neil. Our role is, our job is to get inflation back down to 2%. I mean, there's no ambiguity about whose responsibility that is. It's our job. We were created by Congress in 1913. They've given us two goals, two primary goals, maximum employment, as many Americans working as possible, and stable prices, what we have defined as 2 % inflation. So it is our job to get inflation back down to 2%.

39:41It's been made much more challenging because there have been all of these what we call supply shocks hitting the economy. Obviously, COVID and supply chains, Russia invading Ukraine, tariffs affecting inflation, the Iran war affecting inflation. Immigration changes can have effects on inflation. And now, of course, the data center build out, which I'm sure we're going to talk about, which may have disinflationary effects over the long term, but it's certainly putting pressure on prices in some sectors of the economy today. So it's a complicated environment, but it is our job to get inflation back down to 2%.

40:15Do you think it's behind the curve, the Federal Reserve? I think inflation has been too high for five years. So I think that's one way of saying behind the curve. We need to get it back down. And I know we're committed to getting it back down. And the question is how much, the thing we wrestle with is we could move interest rates up as high as we need to to get inflation down quickly. That will cause a lot of harm to the economy. That'll cause a lot of harm to labor market and to employment. And so how do we get inflation back down in a reasonable period of time without doing a lot of damage to the labor market.

40:48And that's the challenge that we're wrestling with. Just before we move to Betsy, do you anticipate rate hikes this year as a result of the fact that the market's pricing it in and you're not seeing harm being priced in through the equity market? I penciled in. There's this thing that gets a lot of attention called the dot plot, where the Fed pencils in expectations for where interest rates are going. In March, I had penciled in one rate cut by the end of the year. In June, I've changed that to one rate hike by the end of the year. It's a pencil. And so, you know, we're going to have to see how the data comes in.

41:19You know, I don't trust Iran to honor whatever agreement has been made. There's some evidence overnight that they're already reneging on it. So I certainly am not seeing all clear coming out of the Middle East. And that makes me cautious about feeling too good that the worst is behind us. Betsy, when it comes to understanding the data and the sentiment versus on the ground, this very complicated dynamic of some people able to buy black cars are able to buy halibut premium that is fresh versus people who are shopping at three different places. And then you take a look at the consumer sentiment survey, the second lowest going back to the 1970s as released this morning.

41:56When you look at some of the lower end retailers that are seeing this pressure, how do you reconcile the sentiment with the data that suggests that people still are spending and that there still are plenty of price pressures in the works? Yeah, so first, I don't think we're quite in the vibe session we were in in 2022, 2023, where inflation shot up unexpectedly and then was starting to come down, but the labor market was kind of on fire. Like, there were plenty of jobs. People were able to move jobs. There were lots of wage increases because, you know, you're in your job and you want to earn more.

42:37the best way, the way most Americans really get a raise is by changing jobs. And there was tons of openings. People were still unhappy. Now we're in a different situation where they're still unhappy and we don't even have like the job security blanket. And I think what's making the Fed's job really difficult is there is a lot of hiring going on. It looks like we're at something like full employment, but if you're in a job and you're like, I can't make ends meet, I need a better job with more pay, there's not a lot of openings. There's not as many opportunities for that mobility. So when we think about the K-shaped economy, I want to start thinking about it a little bit more broader.

43:19It's not just like high-income people versus low-income people. Some of it's about people who did get some opportunity and have been able to keep up with inflation, so they're doing okay. But some other people who have not, And they are literally worse off today than they were a couple years ago. And I want us to think about it generationally, because there's a lot of young people that are feeling very locked out. Locked out of the labor market, locked out of the housing market, locked out of any kind of savings, overburdened with student loans. And they're looking at an older generation whose housing prices have appreciated substantially, which is why they can't afford housing.

44:02whose stock portfolios have grown. And so we're seeing some generational tension. And so I want to then bring that back to what is this underlying thing that we've been seeing going on where consumers are just telling us they're unhappy. It is more than just the state of the economy right now. We've been seeing declining trust in big business. You know, we've seen declining trust in government for like 15 years. but actually even during the 2008 recession, we still kind of believed in business. Not so much anymore. We're also seeing huge declining trust in capitalism overall. What's interesting to me when I dig into the data is people still trust free enterprise.

44:50So what they're basically saying is big business today is not the free enterprise of the past. It's a machine that's out to screw me. And so they're really feeling like there's a huge hassle factor where it's like a cat and mouse game with a business trying to get them and them trying to figure out how they get back at the business. That sentiment, I don't even know that it's just, you know, narrowed in on the economy. It may actually explain some of our politics too. You know, this sort of real frustration that I got to defend myself in this, you know, volatile, angry economy where everybody's out to get me.

45:29There's a lot to unpack there. I want to start with the first point about employment because ultimately a lot of it does come down to what job you can get and how much you're paid. And David, from your perspective, you were hinting at this. You need to pay people enough to attract them. How easy is it to hire and how much are you having to, wanting to, whatever? How much are you raising salaries for your drivers? at a time of a lot of change and a time of a lot of questions around the labor market. So here's what's interesting. We have more drivers on the Lyft platform than we've ever had in our history.

45:591.5 million people drive on the Lyft platform every year. And I think what that suggests, honestly, is a little bit of what Betsy is talking about. You have a lot of people who feel that they, even if they have a 9 to 5 job or some sort of regular job, need to have a little bit more, right? They want to save up for their kids' education. They want to save up for a trip to Hawaii, whatever it is. And so for a lot of people, about 85 % of people who drive on the Lyft platform are doing it part-time. And a lot of them, frankly, are doing it as sort of supplemental income to get to the point where they feel like they can sort of make it to the end of the week, you know, whole, all in.

46:30Gas prices are tricky for us. I mean, you just mentioned this, Neil. By the way, Neil, loving the hairstyle. I don't think we've gotten a chance to talk about this. I'll give you a good 10 minutes. I'm just kidding. Super, super good. If we could just have a moment on this. Anyway, I hadn't really gotten a chance to focus on that before. Anyway, no, but so as gas prices go up, obviously drivers start to feel pinched because they're responsible for paying for their own gas prices. So that forces us to go to work with third parties to try to figure out how can we create better deals so that they can save 8, 10, 12, 15, 20 cents at the pump.

46:59So I guess sort of the general point would be we have to raise salaries, wages over time, of course, to attract. We're doing that. That's why we have more drivers on the platform than ever. and we have to figure out a way to frankly not pass all those costs along to consumers because otherwise they'll get very angry with us. So it's kind of interesting, Bessie, to hear you talk because it's true. Consumers are very frustrated. I think businesses in a sense are frustrated as well. Like we're all trying super hard to make this work for y 'all, but it's not easy. Jason, what about you? Yeah, you know, I would say coming out of the pandemic, staffing was a challenge for several years.

47:33You had some folks who decided to pull out of the workforce altogether. There was just a lot of challenges. Betsy was pointing to a lot of availability where people can jump to. And it took a little bit for us to help balance that out. We did a lot of investment in base wages, benefits, also looked at ways to offer training and development. One of the areas that folks worry about is like how do I have job security going forward? So we did some work in adding apprentice programs where team members have the ability to be certified in a trade that can both support their career at Whole Foods Market and at Amazon or more broadly.

48:10And we've seen a lot of success in that space as well. And the last area is adding flexibility. We know that, you know, there's a lot of folks who prefer to work multiple part-time jobs because they want to have balance in between different commitments that they might have with school or work or what have you. And so finding ways by which we could meet both what our employees and team members are looking for from an employment offering perspective as well as the flexibility into how they work their jobs. And I'm proud to say we're back at a spot where we are at staffing levels before we were at the pandemic.

48:41And in some sites and locations, we actually have no availability and demand for folks wanting to come in and work. At a certain point, are you able to raise wages? Are you willing to raise wages? are these higher paid jobs? Are they same wage jobs or lower wage jobs? What's the character of them? No, I tell you, over that timeframe I was speaking to since the pandemic, we've actually had to raise, you know, base wages. We've enhanced the benefits that we've been offering. And a piece of that is being competitive, but also making sure that we can offer a great experience. You know, one of our jobs is we don't want somebody, you know, who doesn't look at this as being a career opportunity.

49:16We will have some folks where that is, they're looking for something right now and that's great. But what we want to be able to do is we've got a lot of growth that we've got within our grocery business more broadly. And being able to have the expertise is a differentiation for us. When we look inside of our stores, our customers are coming because of the experience, expertise, and customer service that our team members are able to provide. And so for us, we want to make sure that we can have a career that can be meaningful for them. Neil, how would you characterize the labor market right now?

49:47Because what I'm hearing is very difficult to characterize. On one hand, wages are going up. On the other hand, gig work is also going up because people are having to work multiple jobs. Betsy was talking about how it doesn't look like the 2021 type of market. How do you understand labor when it comes to the inflation picture? Well, I agree with Betsy. It definitely is not a hot labor market like it was a few years ago where businesses are desperate to keep the workers that they have, let alone to hire more workers. It has definitely cooled off. I would call it a decent labor market that's mostly moving sideways.

50:19It's kind of treading water labor market. So it's not in a bad place, but it's not in a great place either. Labor is not what's driving the inflation. Wages have not kept up recently with inflation. The inflation is being driven by supply dynamics. So whether it's tariffs pushing up the price of goods that we buy from abroad, it's the fertilizer that's been disrupted because of the Strait of Hormuz and energy and oil prices from the Strait of Hormuz. So supply dynamics. And then it's also being driven by massive investment, hundreds of billions of dollars a year into data centers and all of the associated infrastructure that goes with that.

50:56Anything that touches those sectors, the prices are skyrocketing on those parts of the economy. It's not wages, though. I mean, yeah, wages for specialty electrical technicians to build data centers, yes, but not wages broadly across the economy. And so it's a complicated environment. I mean, one of the challenges for a central banker is most of the analytical tools that we have to try to analyze inflation start in the labor market. And yet the labor market is not causing the inflation. And so we're having to re-examine even how we think about what causes inflation. And that makes it a particularly challenging analytical moment for us as well.

51:36Is there a historical analog where inflation can remain persistent without wages keeping up? Eventually wages have to catch up. I mean, eventually, so it may be that wages are not causing the inflation right now, but workers ultimately are going to demand that they be able to make their basic ends meet, that their needs be met. And so one of the challenges is even if these supply dynamics fade, I would expect wages to continue then climbing to enable workers to slowly catch up. So that may not be putting pressure on inflation going forward, but it may cause inflation to fall a little less quickly than it otherwise would.

52:14And so, again, very complicated set of dynamics going on right now. Underpinning all of this, Betsy, and I'd love you to weigh in on this, is AI. And we hear that with data centers. You hear that with respect to how people are trying to make supply chains more efficient. Do you have a sense of how that's affecting sort of this labor market dynamic right now? Do we have a sense of whether that's lowering wages in certain places or putting a cap on things or making people feel in flux? Well, I think for sure people feel a lot of uncertainty. And that uncertainty is making people feel bad. And I think it's really important that we all recognize that.

52:52You know, you do have some young people in the audience. and I was giving a talk on AI at a university and a student came up to me and he said, I've pushed all my chips across the table to be here. I'm going to have so much student loans and I'm worried my entire investment's going to be worthless. Can you tell me that it won't be? And I really struggled because I was like, no, I actually really can't. I just want you to sit with that for a minute to think about how much uncertainty and risk and anxiety that young people are living with right now. It's not that we actually look at the data and we see clearly that there are tons of problems, but I think that there's a lot of fear.

53:36What we can see in the data is it's a terrible time to come out with like a data science or, you know, coding. Like, there's very narrow degrees that, you know, now we have AI doing a ton of it. there's a worry that there's going to be contagion to a much broader set of white collar jobs and that it's going to impact young people first. You know, I think to Neil's point earlier, like building up these data centers is going to put its own kind of inflationary pressure. And if we're going to let those data centers go, what we're probably going to have to do is damp down demand in the rest of the economy to prevent inflation, which can have spillover effects.

54:21Ultimately, AI is supposed to boost productivity, which means we can all earn more, right? So there's a golden ticket at the end. The question is going to be, how do we get there? And who survives it? And how much pain do we have to go through in that readjustment period? David, from your perspective, your business is fundamentally affected by AI, potentially, given that all of those drivers might someday be rendered obsolete. They might just be self-driving cars. How are you seeing at this moment AI being deployed, a pathway? How do you convince your drivers that they have some kind of longevity in the career, given the fact that potentially Waymo could come take their job?

55:07So super good question and very relevant because it is going to be a sort of almost physical manifestation of AI, right? Cars driving themselves without drivers. I actually want to back up for one second and sort of look at it a little more broadly. So Lyft, of course, we have thousands of engineers, people who are exactly of the type that Betsy's talking about. And one of the things we're very focused on, I think there's a sort of, I'll call it a lack of imagination around where AI can play. And I think the lack of imagination mode is we're going to use it and we're going to fire a bunch of people, right?

55:39That sounds uninteresting.

55:41Ed Ludlow:Bloomberg's Lisa Abramovic talking affordability with tech leaders, policymakers, Aspen Ideas. You continue watching the full panel on Live Go. We're getting to the end of Bloomberg Tech, but this is the market story. It has been a bruising week for the AI trade with memory at the heart of it. Apple raised hardware prices because of it. And that trade's been global, right? It's not just here in the US. In Korea overnight, the leading memory names also sold off. A lot to recap as that does it for this edition of Bloomberg Tech. Recap that on the pod. You know where to find it on iHeart, Apple and Spotify online and always on all the Bloomberg platforms.

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