In short
Semiconductor and AI infrastructure rally, centered on memory; plus export-control chip smuggling allegations; market outlook; SpaceX Starship milestone and IPO governance; AI coding agents; and earnings/AI expectations for Salesforce.
Guests (backgrounds)
- Ryan Vlaselica (Bloomberg Equities reporter).
- Mike Shepard (Bloomberg Senior Tech Editor).
- Nancy Tengler (CEO, Laffer Tengler Investments; long-time tech investor).
- Peter Diamandis (XPRIZE founder; early SpaceX investor).
- Ian King (Bloomberg semiconductor reporter).
- Scott Wu (CEO, Cognition; developer of AI coding agent “Devin”).
- Brody Ford (Bloomberg reporter covering Salesforce).
- Iqbal Khan (UBS Asia-Pacific President).
Key claims
- SK Hynix and Micron reached $1T market caps as AI drives high-bandwidth memory demand; Micron revenue growth “nearly tripled” last quarter; both up ~70% in May.
- UBS argues Micron deserves NVIDIA-like valuation (about 15x forward earnings vs historically ~5x), despite memory cyclicality concerns.
- Taiwan prosecutors suspect three people smuggled NVIDIA AI chips to China via Japan using falsified documents; NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang urged partners to tighten compliance.
- Nancy Tengler expects frothiness/corrections but favors “high quality” names; watches Fed/inflation for catalysts.
- Diamandis says Starship V3 success proves full-system testing; SpaceX is building off-planet compute infrastructure; speculates SpaceX and Tesla could merge to consolidate control.
- Cognition’s Devin is used heavily internally (over 90% of Cognition code written by Devin) and Cognition targets $1B+ revenue run rate.
- Salesforce must show revenue acceleration from Agentforce to counter “SaaSpocalypse” fears.
Notable examples
- Micron multiple under 10x forward earnings; UBS price target to ~$1.8T company.
- Seizure of ~50 Supermicro servers; at least one shipment allegedly reached China.
- ByteDance considering up to $70B CapEx for AI infrastructure (Talking Tech).
- Samsung strike avoided via union compensation; TSMC profit-sharing payout up >30%.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Trends in Semiconductors
2:53 to 3:32
Discussion on the recent trends in semiconductor market and stock movements.
“And meanwhile, we still think about what space is doing to the public markets, but more broadly, the public markets just taking a bit of a breather today.”
Deep Dive into Micron and SK Hynix
3:43 to 6:04
Exploration of Micron's growth, revenue, and market valuation in AI infrastructure.
“Let's get more with Bloomberg Equities reporter Ryan Vlaselica.”
NVIDIA Chip Smuggling Case
6:18 to 8:02
Investigation into suspected smuggling of NVIDIA chips to China.
“Yes, because high bandwidth memory and the design of the SOC, the chiplet, it's directly embedded into the GPU.”
Geopolitics and Market Impact
8:03 to 10:34
Discussion on how geopolitical issues affect tech stocks and the market.
“Look, Taiwanese prosecutors suspect three individuals smuggled NVIDIA AI chips to China through Japan.”
Investor Insights on AI and Memory Stocks
10:36 to 14:03
Nancy Tengler shares insights on investing in AI and memory stocks amidst market fluctuations.
“tech stocks that are holding on to near record highs with a whole lot of enthusiasm for the AI trade.”
Market Insights Post Earnings Season
14:03 to 17:02
Discussion on market trends and potential corrections after earnings season.
“And, you know, what we've done is we've within our 12th best, we have a six for 26 that's up 40 percent this year and includes names like CrowdStrike.”
SpaceX's Starship Milestone
17:14 to 18:27
Peter Diamandis shares insights on SpaceX's recent Starship launch success.
“Here to talk about it, the importance of Starship, Musk, the perspective of an early SpaceX investor, Peter Diamandis, founder of XPRIZE.”
The Future of SpaceX and AI
18:27 to 21:04
Discussion on SpaceX's role in global broadband and AI infrastructure.
“What people have to realize is that you can't test a rocket a little bit at a time.”
Democratizing Space and Technology
21:04 to 22:38
Exploration of how advances in space technology can benefit society.
“You know, we humans love competition and it drives us forward.”
Potential Merger of SpaceX and Tesla
22:38 to 26:14
Insights on the possibility and implications of a SpaceX and Tesla merger.
“And we're about to see human intelligence increased by not just 10 or 100 fold, a million fold, a billion fold.”
Show all 24 chapters
Potential Merger of SpaceX and Tesla
26:38 to 28:01
Insights on the possibility and implications of a SpaceX and Tesla merger.
“and with stocks under pressure in the broader tech ecosystem This is Primark Tech.”
Potential Merger of SpaceX and Tesla
28:06 to 28:35
Insights on the possibility and implications of a SpaceX and Tesla merger.
“At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need.”
Potential Merger of SpaceX and Tesla
29:14 to 29:33
Insights on the possibility and implications of a SpaceX and Tesla merger.
Market Reaction to Geopolitical Events
29:51 to 30:29
Discussion on market fluctuations and pressures in the semiconductor sector.
“And the market just sells off a little bit in that eye of the storm.”
The Rise of Memory Chip Giants
30:30 to 32:11
Exploring the market cap milestones of Micron and SK Hynix amidst AI demand.
“Memory chip giants, SK Hynix and Micron have reached.”
The Memory Market Landscape
32:12 to 33:33
Analysis of memory market dynamics and historical challenges faced.
“The idea that it was boom and bust, where memory principally went before there was this great demand from the data center space.”
Cognition's Billion Dollar Round
33:34 to 33:48
Update on Cognition's funding and growth in AI technology.
AI's Impact on Software Engineering
33:49 to 40:57
Discussion with Cognition's CEO on AI's role in enhancing software development.
“Well, look, thank you so much for having me back.”
AI's Impact on Software Engineering
40:58 to 41:27
Discussion with Cognition's CEO on AI's role in enhancing software development.
“It's an investing platform for people who are serious about building their wealth.”
Market Outlook: Salesforce and Snowflake
42:28 to 42:58
Previewing upcoming earnings reports and AI's effects on business models.
“These may apply to Chase Business Complete Checking accounts.”
Salesforce's AI Revenue Growth Discussion
42:58 to 46:05
Analyzing Salesforce's potential revenue growth from AI offerings and market reactions.
“Wall Street is watching closely for signs that the company's AI offerings can help reignite revenue growth.”
Marvell's Performance and AI Impact
46:06 to 48:08
Exploring Marvell's stock performance and its relationship with AI advancements.
“How have they been performing with NVIDIA's backing?”
Global Energy Demand and Infrastructure
48:09 to 48:24
Discussing the impact of AI and data centers on global energy demand and grid modernization.
“The battle to build the best grid is a battle to win the future.”
AI's Impact on Jobs with UBS's Iqbal Khan
48:25 to 51:49
Iqbal Khan discusses how AI will enhance productivity and potentially impact jobs.
“UBS Asia-Pacific President Iqbal Khan says AI will free up capacity and improve productivity, but also have an impact on jobs.”
Transcript
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1:43Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts. Radio. News.
1:52Bloomberg Tech is live from coast to coast with Caroline Hyde in New York and Ed Ludlow in San Francisco.
2:03Caroline Hyde:This is Bloomberg Tech. Coming up, Micron and SK Hynix join the$1 trillion market cap club all about the memory. Plus, Taiwanese prosecutors suspect three individuals of smuggling NVIDIA chips to China through Japan. And we speak...
2:21Bloomberg Tech is live from coast to coast with Caroline Hyde in New York and Ed Ludlow in San Francisco.
2:32Caroline Hyde:This is Bloomberg Tech. Coming up, Micron and SK Hynix join the$1 trillion market cap club all about the memory. Plus, Taiwanese prosecutors suspect three individuals of smuggling NVIDIA chips to China through Japan. And we speak with ex-Price founder and early SpaceX investor Peter Diamandis as SpaceX celebrates a major Starship milestone. And meanwhile, we still think about what space is doing to the public markets, but more broadly, the public markets just taking a bit of a breather today. We're looking at what's happening in terms of semiconductors in particular. It has been a fiery ride higher.
3:05In the last five trading days, we've added 13 % to this benchmark. Today, we pulled back a little bit. But there are notable players within the chip sector that you've got to keep your eyes trained on. It's all about the power, the muscle of high bandwidth memory. And of course, it sent Micron storing. We're still holding on to the day's gains. We're up three tenths of a percent, but it was all about yesterday's market moves and those that happened in Asia as well, Ed.
3:27Caroline Hyde:So that brings us to today's big number,$1 trillion and climbing. Memory ship giants SK Hynix and Micron have now joined the$1 trillion market cap club and see continued momentum as investors pile into some of the companies that are powering the AI boom. Let's get more with Bloomberg Equities reporter Ryan Vlaselica. It's been a number of days now where we've been trying to look at what's happening, Ryan, with the memory names in particular. Micron was the case study because of that UBS note, which you can remind us of. But generally speaking, what is happening across memory, not just in U.S. markets, but of course in Korean markets as well?
4:03Caroline Hyde:Well, there's been a huge and growing appreciation of how central high bandwidth memory is to the overall AI infrastructure build out. These companies have seen absolutely massive demand and absolutely massive growth. I think Micron's revenue nearly tripled last quarter, which was, I think, the fastest pace of growth going back to, I think, the 1990s. So absolutely just staggering levels of demand for these types of chips, all of which are being used in the AI infrastructure. And that is really translating in a pretty direct way to the stock prices. I think Micron is up more than 70 % in May by itself, which is the biggest one-month jump since December 1987.
4:45Caroline Hyde:Just to give you a sense of just how quickly these stocks are moving up. Let's look about SK Hynix, how much it moved up in the May number as well. They've almost moved in lockstep. Both of them up 70 % in the month of May, SK Hynix, Micron. Both up more than 200 % so far year-to-date. But what's notable is both of them are posting quarterly revenue increases of more than 200%. So in many ways, I'm honest, out there seem to be saying, look, these are still actually fundamentally cheap. Yeah, the levels of growth that these companies are seeing is absolutely astronomical. And I can also add in SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate, all the memory and storage space are just seeing absolutely huge demand.
5:27Caroline Hyde:The valuation picture is a little bit tricky, though. In fact, we have a story coming out tomorrow, but I'll give you a sneak preview. Micron's multiple is trading under 10 right now, 10 times forward earnings. That is extremely low, especially for a company growing this quickly. However, because memory has historically been quite cyclical, there are some concerns that this low multiple might be an indication of peak earnings. I've actually had someone say to me that he would feel more comfortable if Micron was really expensive right now, because that would indicate maybe a trough level in earnings that are about to go ahead, leaving the stock up with it.
6:01Caroline Hyde:So right now, you can certainly say that Micron is inexpensive. The question is, is AI changing the cyclical nature of memory overall that we are in some kind of new paradigm where maybe Micron actually is as cheap as it looks and this isn't some kind of contrarian warning light? I'll answer that, Ryan. Yes, because high bandwidth memory and the design of the SOC, the chiplet, it's directly embedded into the GPU. And what's so crazy about all of this, we're talking a lot about supply constraints, a shortage of GPUs, but it's not because of the GPU die. It's not because NVIDIA can't get enough of them necessarily.
6:40Caroline Hyde:It's the corresponding high bandwidth memory is not there. Unpack what UBS said in its note about that, particularly on the valuation. It said one reason we're doubling our price target is we think that people will start to appreciate that. Yeah. So UBS came out. I think they actually tripled their price target. I think the estimate was that this would eventually be a$1.8 trillion company. So even though we've seen some huge gains in the stocks, UBS expects the upside. It sees a lot more additional upside from here. What it said was that Micron really deserves to have a multiple that's on par with NVIDIA.
7:12Caroline Hyde:And I think it said it was looking for maybe 15 times estimated earnings. whereas as historically, it gave it a five times estimated earnings multiple. So they are saying that Micron should be worth three times what it used to consider a fair valuation for the stock. That is a really significant change here, and it really is causing people to reevaluate. How should we be valuing these companies? How should we be considering the nature of the market, the nature of this demand? And what does that really mean for growth going forward? Right now, it's up in the air, but so far, people seem extremely optimistic and extremely positive.
7:47More broadly, we're seeing at the moment, Ryan, not a single sell rating on either of these stocks, despite that more than 200 % crescendo so far this year. We appreciate you. Look, as investors are pushing memory giants like SK Hinex, like Micron to record valuations, the race for advanced semiconductors also raises new concerns over export controls. Look, Taiwanese prosecutors suspect three individuals smuggled NVIDIA AI chips to China through Japan. It's according to sources. Some more. We go to Bloomberg Senior Tech Editor Mike Shepard to join us. This is once again about supermicrocomputers.
8:20This is about servers that are somehow winding their way to China. Oh, that's right. These three individuals are suspected of having falsified documents indicating that the final destination for these devices was Japan, when in fact, according to authorities, the ultimate buyer was in China someplace. Now, authorities managed to seize about 50 of these servers before they were actually shipped, but it looks like at least one shipment got through, according to the reporting by our colleagues Mackenzie Hawkins and Debbie Wu, who have been all over this story from the start. Now, Carol, the twist in this case is Japan.
8:59When we have been reporting on and talking about some of the other chip smuggling cases involving NVIDIA's hardware and products, they've typically gone through some of the Southeast Asian economies like Thailand and Singapore. And we haven't seen Japan really factor into this. Japan is actually seen as more of a place where Chinese companies can rent computing power legally. It's a practice that falls within the bounds, permissible bounds, of U.S. export controls. Through data centers in Japan, Chinese companies can simply access all that AI compute simply by paying a rental fee.
9:35Caroline Hyde:Chef, real quick, NVIDIA didn't respond to a request for comment on this story, but Jensen Wong is in Taiwan right now. And I believe somebody asked him broadly about this issue. Very quick, what did he say? Well, he was asked over the weekend after those three individuals were detained whether Supermicro needed to do more to rein in some of the concerns about chip smuggling. And he said, look, they need to perhaps tighten up the ship when it comes to compliance and oversight of their customers. And this is a rare thing for the NVIDIA CEO to say about one of the company's partners. Supermicro and neither company, of course, it's important to note, has been accused of any wrongdoing in these or other cases.
10:19But they insisted that their compliance is up to par and that they are doing more to strengthen it in the wake of the charges that were filed against one of its co-founders earlier this year. An unfolding story one year all across. We so appreciate it. Bloomberg's Mike Shepard there. Look, we can continue to talk geopolitics and how it impacts the market. We continue to talk about U.S. tech stocks that are holding on to near record highs with a whole lot of enthusiasm for the AI trade. But there's some pressure out there. Let's talk about it with Nancy Tengler, CEO, CEO of Lafa Tengler Investments.
10:51And just pivoting back to how we started this story, that Micron and SK Hynix are now in the trillion dollar club, that we're still seeing AI infrastructure bottlenecks. Nancy, is this just continuing to feed your optimism around the sector? Yeah, I mean, Caroline, we're ready for a correction because we get one about once a year. And this has been pretty frothy. But when you go back and look, when there's been an eight-week run like this, historically, stocks are up around 12 % a year later. And that's bespoke's work, not mine. So I think you have to be nimble. nimble. And, you know, we added to Micron at 366 just a few months ago and felt late.
11:35And of course, we weren't, at least not for the moment. So what you have to do is be diligent about trimming things back. And that is what we've been doing, you know, taking some gains, sitting and waiting, reallocating to names that we think, you know, will continue to benefit. But yeah, this is a productivity driven bull market. I think it will continue for some time. We will probably get a correction. That will be yet another opportunity like DeepSeek was, like the first quarter of this year was. But you want to stick with the high quality names and you don't want to chase the latest because the hedge funds are going to pivot here pretty quickly.
12:16And we saw that from hardware to software and now back to hardware.
12:20Caroline Hyde:Nancy, I'm going to show you a chart. And for those that listen to Bloomberg Tech as a podcast, it's a squiggly line that shows a very sharp upward trajectory from the end of March to present day. We've gone from about 22 ,500 points to almost 30 ,000. Yes, if you tell anyone I quoted points on that, I'll deny it. You just said that you're ready for a correction. The Micron story was about UBS almost tripling its price target. How are you going to play Micron in a correction environment? Yeah, I mean, we are going to be trimming it here shortly and we will likely add back to it. Beware of people that tell you, you know, old tech is dead or software is dead because these companies find ways.
13:02I understand this is more of a demand issue, but they do find ways to pivot. And so I think what you want to be doing is taking some gains when you can and then looking for opportunities when the market pulls back. We called for a bottom on April 4th. I mean, that's not really our business, but we did. We were a little bit late. But that is how this market has been moving. And so it's quickly and it's rapid and it's violent to the upside. And so don't confuse that with, you know, being a genius because what the market giveth, it will also take it away. So you just want to remain nimble. Relating nimble and thinking about what your long-term bets are.
13:47Like, Nancy, you always bring us your 12 best ideas portfolio. And within that is some software, is ServiceNow, for example. And boy, have those names been beaten up, but they have clawed their way back from some of the bottoms. But tonight we get, of course, Salesforce numbers. Will that fundamentally show that these AI-related, disruptible names can hang on in there? I think so, Caroline. It's an important report, to be sure. And, you know, what we've done is we've within our 12th best, we have a six for 26 that's up 40 percent this year and includes names like CrowdStrike. Last year, we had ServiceNow in that five for 25, and it did abysmally, but the portfolio still outperformed.
14:29So that is what you have to think about. Is that the right name? Is Microsoft going to be a winner? I think so. I'm more concerned about Salesforce, which we don't own. We exited Adobe for obvious reasons a while back. And I think that's what you have to consider. Who will win? And I do think if you own the platform, you'll be a beneficiary of AI. And I do think ServiceNow is well positioned, despite how difficult of a name it has been to own.
14:58Caroline Hyde:Nancy, we're in this period now where we've gone through earnings season, including through NVIDIA. So we're not now fixed on the CapEx figures. Maybe we still are. NVIDIA has set its piece. What happens in this interim period? Like what is the catalyst in either direction for the market? That's the right question, Ed. I think that is why we think we may be ripe for a correction. What will happen is we will turn our attention, the market's fickle, And then we'll start focusing on the Fed. We'll go back to is Hormuz open and there will be hand wringing. And I think that will drive the narrative because it's too early for the midterms.
15:37So so we are putting in place some protection for our clients. And and it may be money not well spent if the market continues to accelerate. But it never does go straight up. So I think you want to pay attention to Fed speak. I hope there's less of it as we move forward from here. I mean, that is a promise that Kevin Warsh made and let the Fed do their job. And then and there will also be on inflation watch, which which I think is actually not the bigger problem that we face from an economic standpoint. But there are many who disagree with me on that. What about Iran? Yeah, I mean, I think I think that's problematic on so many levels.
16:18But, you know, we're getting all the peace talk, but we haven't seen a lot of progress. So I think for most investors, the question is, when do the Strait of Hormuz open? When that happens, then I think you'll see a melt-up. But until then, you'll see a lot of hand-wringing. And that is what markets do. And that is what the algos and the hedge funds exacerbate in the near term. So volatility, remember, friend of long-term investor, use it to your advantage. Because earnings growth has been amazing. We've also seen guidance raised. We've been steadfast in the tech trade for the last three years while many wrote it off.
16:56So we're pretty happy with, you know, the way our portfolios have performed as a result of that.
17:01Caroline Hyde:Nancy Tengler of Laffer Tengler Investments, back on VTech. Thank you very much. Now, coming up, we're going to speak with the X Prize founder, Peter Diamandis, as SpaceX celebrates a major Starship milestone. This is Bloomberg Tech.
17:23Caroline Hyde:SpaceX's latest successful Starship launch marks a major milestone for the company's next generation rocket program and a critical step towards the long-term growth strategy that was laid out in its recent IPO filing, also crucial, Elon Musk. The S1 made it absolutely clear with an outsized pay package, majority voting control for the CEO, Bloomberg Intelligence writing, the document highlights some significant governance concerns that still might be overshadowed by investors' fear of missing out. FOMO on the biggest IPO ever. Here to talk about it, the importance of Starship, Musk, the perspective of an early SpaceX investor, Peter Diamandis, founder of XPRIZE.
18:01Caroline Hyde:And we're trying again. You're on the show Friday and we had to cut our conversation short. But then on Friday night, Starship 12th flight test mission V3, your reaction to how that went? Listen, the fact that it was a brand new vehicle, brand new engines, the most advanced engineering ever built by humans, it was an incredible success. What people have to realize is that you can't test a rocket a little bit at a time. You have to test the entire system. And the fact that the launch took off with its version three of its engines and the entire vehicle, the largest, most powerful engineering system ever launched by humans, it was great.
18:49We're going to see Starship making incremental flights, getting better and better until the time where the entire vehicle is refuyable, refuelable on orbit and becomes a platform to go to the moon, go to Mars, go beyond.
19:04Caroline Hyde:why starship is also its capability and payload to orbit for first starlink and then orbital data center i wrote the beginning of the week about how clear the s1 was about the limitation of spacex's current access to compute and how much it's going to need in the future you then had an exchange with elon musk i think in the last 24 hours right um or 48 hours about that exact issue What was the point you were trying to relay to Elon there? The point is that he's not just built. This is not just a rocket company. Right. This is a vertically integrated satellite network, global broadband, sovereign communications, AI compute and ultimately off planet infrastructure.
19:51You know, he is building a hyperscaler and not just an AI system. So his ability to succeed as a company goes beyond just the, you know, Grok as an AI system. He's providing the infrastructure for a large number of the frontier labs out there. And what people need to realize about this company is it isn't just a little bit ahead of the entire launch industry on planet Earth. It's orders of magnitude ahead beyond anything else. and everything we hold to value on Earth, metals, minerals, energy, real estate is in near infinite quantities in space. And so what we're buying is the next, you know, the global economy, you know, 2.0 and 3.0 as we look at buying into SpaceX.
20:42Go global, Peter, because I know you can and we're pleased that you do. There's a lot of hand-wringing and almost people feeling that at every turn the U.S. uses China as the excuse as to why we need less regulation, why we need to go full throttle, why we need to win, quote unquote. How much are you seeing a space race, U.S., China, and how much has SpaceX managed to dominate there vis-a-vis, not just U.S. competition? You know, we humans love competition and it drives us forward. And so if you think about this, you know, it was the U.S. versus the Soviets and the Russians in the, you know, 50 years ago.
21:18We're doing that same thing again. But this time, it's beyond just a political race. It's an economic race. Again, we're building out huge revenue engines as we're going forward, whether it's going to be mining the moon for resources or mining the asteroids for resources. We're also going to be building out a level of global compute infrastructure in Earth orbit. And again, no one was talking about this a year ago. And today, every major hyperscaler is. We see Anthropic buying into XAI's or SpaceX's data centers on Earth. But they're also going to need the compute that's going to be given from orbit.
22:03Look, you're a man who's driven by trying to solve the world's most pressing problems. You're also a man who happened to have got into SpaceX and Google and other key companies very early. We're at this moment where people are questioning how it helps them. How is this being democratized in some way? How are we solving the world's greatest problems for everyone, not just the few, Peter? How are you thinking about that, particularly when we look at a listing of a company that is already so valuable? Is there much left on the table in terms of democratization and buying of shares by retail investors?
Read the full transcript
22:32Sure. So let's hit the point you made first about solving the world's biggest problems. The single most powerful thing we humans have is our intelligence. And we're about to see human intelligence increased by not just 10 or 100 fold, a million fold, a billion fold. It's the ability for us to discover breakthroughs across physics and chemistry and biology, material sciences. All of these things are going to be driven by the use of these AI systems. And so I don't think people understand how rapidly the economy is going to grow on the back of AI. We're going to be solving aging as a fundamental.
23:15right what is it worth if you can add 30 healthy years and then those extra 30 healthy years on your life buy you the next 50 healthy years or 100 healthy years what is that worth individuals when we get to room temperature superconducting when we get to new ways of growing food you know twice as fast five times faster healthier we're heading towards a world of abundance across everything, food, water, energy, healthcare, education, all of these elements. You know, when I interviewed Elon on my Moonshots podcast at the beginning of this year, and then again, in March, what he talked about, and I believe this, is we're going to see double and then triple digit GDP growth.
24:01And this is happening not because we're working harder or we humans are smarter. It's on the back of AI and humanoid robotics. One of the things he said was that we're entering a world where AI and robots are going to create so much product, so much availability that we could not want enough. Now, this sounds like a techno-utopian vision, but we have to realize that all the progress that we've seen in humanity, we're living lives today that are godlike compared to our parents and grandparents. Yes.
24:37Caroline Hyde:Let me jump on something you just said. Thank you. You spoke January 6th with Elon at length and then again in March. And what you just said about robots, there is broad speculation right now about the prospect of a post IPO SpaceX merging with Tesla. on January 30th. On January 30th, I reported they'd held talks prior to the XAI transaction. You say 100%. I mean, what are you learning from those two conversations? What do you know about how real that is? Why it makes sense? It makes sense because it consolidates Elon's control. Today, as reported in the IPO in the S1, there's super voting rights that he has.
25:17And of course, his inside owners, I think it's like 80 plus percent voting control. He doesn't have that in Tesla. And by combining the companies, I think he'll have that. He'll have the ability to operate across all of this infrastructure. And, you know, a fleet of cyber cabs, all of the Tesla vehicles out there that have compute capability on them, have power on them as well. We're creating a global infrastructure on the ground and in space. So it just consolidates control. It makes his ability to implement his vision a lot more efficient. So, you know, I put it as not a matter of if and only a matter of when those two companies come together.
26:03And also because they're valued public companies, you can make that merger happen a lot easier than if you're combining private companies and arguing about valuation. Peter Diamandis, ex-Prize founder fascinating to have some time with you and the vision of where SpaceX goes along with Tesla, we appreciate it now coming up, we're going to be joined by the CEO of Cognition discussing the AI startup's latest fundraise to power the first AI software engineer as they call it, Devon, or many Devons but there's a cracking big valuation on the back of this, we're excited about that conversation coming up next from San Francisco and New York and with stocks under pressure in the broader tech ecosystem This is Primark Tech.
27:11AI and data analytics with multidisciplinary teams. People with deep industry experience who can challenge assumptions and help you connect the dots across your enterprise. From risk signals to operational pressure points to shifting customer needs, Deloitte helps you see what's coming sooner, so opportunities don't slip by and surprises don't spread. It's not just dashboards. It's real clarity in the moments your decisions are made. When models reveal patterns, people can ask better questions. When data and people are connected, leaders can move faster with confidence. And when your teams are aligned, smart choices can scale from the front line to the C-suite.
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28:05Caroline Hyde:So there's a lot of noise about AI, but time's too tight for more promises. So let's talk about results. At IBM, we work with our employees to integrate technology right into the systems they need. Now, a global workforce of 300 ,000 can use AI to fill their HR questions, resolving 94 % of common questions. Not noise. Proof of how we can help companies get smarter by putting AI where it actually pays off, deep in the work that moves the business. Let's create smarter business. IBM.
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29:40Welcome back to Bloomberg Tech. And we pull back from some of our record highs today. We turn our attention to what's happening with the Middle East. Will there be some sort of peace still between the U.S. and Iran? There are conflicting, well, moon music around it and news flow. And the market just sells off a little bit in that eye of the storm. We're currently off by four tenths of a percent on the Nasdaq 100, coming off of yesterday's record high. We're looking at the semiconductors, particularly under pressure. NVIDIA and the like yanking it down 2.5%. But remember, it's up 13 % prior to this on a five-day winning streak.
30:08So we take a pause, but we don't take a pause. One key name. Micron is still managing to cling into the green. We're up 7 tenths of a percent. This is as they hit a trillion dollar figure. And this is as we start to see the real focus on high bandwidth memory that saw also SK Hynix run up so far.
30:25Caroline Hyde:Let's get back to today's big number. One trillion dollars in climbing. That's the market cap. Memory chip giants, SK Hynix and Micron have reached. And as Cari just outlined, Micron still has momentum. Investors are piling into companies that are powering the AI boom. Let's get more on Micron and SK Hynix. Bloomberg's Ian King, who leads our coverage of semiconductors. You know what's so funny? You and I go to all these conferences and speak to all these people in industry. And if you do it from their perspective, none of this is a surprise. Like as Jensen Wong would put it, CEO of NVIDIA, he was trying to convince the memory makers years ago that this would happen.
31:01Caroline Hyde:Now, here we are. Why do we need so much high bandwidth memory? Yeah, I mean, if you look at the forward estimates for this company, Wall Street is bought into this massive sense of we need so much more equipment. There's going to be trillions of dollars of spending happening on this. And memory is an absolutely fundamental base layer of the technology. If you believe that the industry and the economy is changing to the extent that people like Jensen Wang are saying it will. Ian, it seems like the stereotypical oligopoly here. There's like three key players that are rushing to try and fill a hole in high bandwidth memory.
31:36Of course, Dram sort of goes to the back seat a little bit here. But are we seeing any competitive threats? Because at the moment, analysts, all the community think, keep buying these stocks. The bottlenecks are going to last through 2027. Yeah, I mean, the other way to, that's a good point, Caroline. And the other way to look at it is why there are only three companies left. The answer is because this has been a horrible market for years, right? We've had some good years, but we've had a lot of bad years as well. There's only three real providers because it's so expensive. The bets are so big and it's so difficult to make a sustained living in this business.
32:06They're survivors, not necessarily thrivers, even though that's what's going on right now.
32:11Caroline Hyde:Could you just educate the Bloomberg Tech audience a little bit on the history of memory? The idea that it was boom and bust, where memory principally went before there was this great demand from the data center space. Yeah, I mean, the key point is that this is a commodity. One chip from one company can be swapped out for another. So you effectively have a market, right? Prices go up and down, supply and demand. Like spot prices. Exactly. It's a commodity, right? And in the past, you know, the big market was PCs and then it was smartphones. And of course, these are consumer devices by and large.
32:43So long-term supply versus short-term fluctuations in demand was a recipe for disaster.
32:51Caroline Hyde:Bloomberg's Ian King, thank you very much. Cara, some more news. Yeah, it's time now for Talking Tech Ed. And first up, ByteDance is planning to sharply increase capital spending to lead the Chinese AI market. Now, the company is considering as much as$70 billion this year to build out data centers and other AI infrastructure. And it may boost CapEx to roughly$100 billion next year. Plus, an update on the Samsung strike talks. The company's union members voted in favor of a compensation deal that will hand chip workers an average bonus for$340 ,000. Now, the agreement avoids a strike that had threatened to disrupt global chip supply.
33:24And similarly, TSMC chief CeCe Wei told staff that they'll see more than a 30 % bump in profit-sharing payouts this year on average, according to a source where his comments come after some employees voiced concerns over their incentive plans online and followed the Samsung Union deal, Ed.
33:42Caroline Hyde:okay back to private markets cognition has raised over a billion dollars at a 26 billion dollar valuation lux capital general catalyst and 8vc led the new round cognition ceo scott was here to discuss the news we also give an update on the company's ai coding agent devin not just one agent like i think caroline made a good point like it's an army of agents and we'll get to that Start with some basics, Scott. A billion dollars, big valuation. Why do you do that? Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Well, look, thank you so much for having me back. A few different reasons. First of all, you know, the growth that we've seen in the business has been incredible.
34:18And I think really across the board, what we're seeing is that AI is doing real work at real companies everywhere. And, you know, every company in 2026 is a software company. And so we work with, for example, all the top five health insurers in the United States. We're seeing folks building way more tooling for all of their care providers. They're able to cut down on price and cover more people. We're working with banks on delivering software and making sure to give their customers access to what they need. We're seeing this with the Treasury and NASA as well. And so a couple reasons for the raise.
34:48I think, first of all, we want to continue to grow aggressively, and this really allows us to do that. It allows us to scale our compute. It allows us to grow the team and so on. Second of all, it allows us to stay independent and to really continue on as an independent business, which is really, really important for us.
35:03Caroline Hyde:it's going well as an independent business like what's what's interesting talking to you over let's say an aggregate over a period of a year is to track growth yeah right so when you first like coming on the show like beginning of 25 24 the revenue run rate was a few million with respect then exactly a year ago you're kind of at a run rate of about 37 million dollars where's your revenue run right now yeah so we're getting close to 500 million today as you said we've only been in business for about two years and i think a lot of what it speaks to is just how much demand there is out there for all of this.
35:36And there's about 30, 35 million software engineers in the world today. We want to make all of them 10 times more efficient. And then we think there is a lot more than 10 times more software to build. There is so much demand, Scott, but there's also a pretty crowded market when it thinks of startups. And admittedly, you've been talking about how labs are sort of buying these startups. And we think about what DealCurse has just been doing over with SpaceX. But I'm interested as to how you see the threat from the big labs in and of themselves. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. For us, it's actually the other way around.
36:04I think for us, it's, you know, being fully independent and fully neutral is actually the best way for us to be aligned with our customers. And so we work very closely with all these labs, OpenAI, Anthropic, but also Google, XAI, and so on. We have deep relationships with them. We work with them on research. And it allows us to work with our customers and provide them the best model for every different use case. And so Devon is a compound system that works with all of these different models. And because of that, we're able to be the Switzerland in the equation here. A Switzerland that sometimes makes the most of the disruption when it comes to talent and the like.
36:37I think about what happened last year, the windsurf assets, the IP, the brand, the employees after Google took, well, the key CEO and leadership of that company. Will more M &A happen? Is that where some of the new funding will come into perspective? I'm sure there will be more and there will be different things that come up. For us, what we're personally most focused on is just continuing to grow the business and serve our customers as best as we can.
37:05Caroline Hyde:You said, well, a heavy emphasis on independence. And then you called yourselves the Switzerland of this space. What do you think will happen if SpaceX doesn't acquire Cursor is the base question. But when I speak to, say, the engineering teams at NVIDIA, the reason they like Cursor was the freedom to swap in and out the underlying model. depending on what your coding objective was. I suppose that's one reason why they like Devin, right? But if Cursor becomes a part of SpaceX AI, how do you see that changing the field? Data is so critically important, right? And who you are beholden to. Yeah, absolutely.
37:44No, I mean, it's a great question. I think in practice, I think there are a lot of great teams working on code, including, of course, the labs themselves. I think what we see is that the ecosystem is broad enough and vibrant enough that it makes sense for there to be different players in different positions. And so there are going to continue to be first-party products from the labs themselves. But as we're kind of saying, to your point, I think having the ability to serve each of the different models, and not just the ability, but also the neutrality in terms of being incentivized to just serve whatever is the best model for each case rather than a single series of models,
38:16Caroline Hyde:I think is an important position in the space as well. You would say that Devon is the first AI software engineer. And we talked about the revenue run rate. Clearly, that's evidence of momentum and success. But are you able to sort of give any data on how pervasive Devin is, how it has changed the structure of different engineering orgs at software companies, at other technology companies? For sure. Yeah. I mean, we're seeing this across the board where as teams are adopting Devin and coding agents en masse, that in practice, they're able to do much more and execute much more aggressively on roadmap.
38:53Caroline Hyde:Is this new code or is it going back over old code bases? It's both. And so as you can imagine, the large majority of work is working on these existing code bases and continuing to build and add new features and so on. But even internally at Cognition, for example, more than 90 % of the code that we write is written by Devon. And so of course we're using Devon all day when we're going and building Devon itself. And even with that productivity, you've been scaling the amount of people you hire, Scott. Just reflect on what this means in terms of how many software engineers we're going to need. Like this ongoing anxiety is the disruption that AI causes in all its ways and across all these industries.
39:31Yeah, no, I think what we'll see is, of course, the job will evolve over time and we'll see some of the skill sets change, but I think we will have far more people doing this and building software and building products, not less. And, you know, my favorite side on this personally is today there's about 30 or 35 million software engineers in the world. Just 20, 25 years ago, at the start of the century, it was under 1 million. And that's clearly come with a massive rise in the amount of software that we've produced. And I think as we continue to make it more and more efficient,
39:57Caroline Hyde:we're actually just going to produce even more software, not less. Scott, very, very quick. What's the goal you've set the team for the balance of the year? One metric. Yeah, yeah. Look, I think for this year, we firmly intend to cross a billion in revenue run rate. We want to keep going further even beyond that. And from there, we just want to grow to as many of the companies in the world that we can. Cognition, CEO Scott Wu, thank you very much for joining us today. Now coming up, Salesforce, Snowflake, both reporting earnings after the closing bell. We'll discuss what to expect. How's AI disrupting their business models?
40:30This is Bloomberg Tech.
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42:57Caroline Hyde:We're watching shares of Salesforce up 1.2%, set to report quality results this afternoon. Wall Street is watching closely for signs that the company's AI offerings can help reignite revenue growth. Bloomberg's Brody Ford, who covers Salesforce, is with us. And 24 hours ago, we were talking about the idea that right now the AI agent story is more marketing than real in terms of revenues. But that will be the test this evening, right? Is that kind of what you're looking for? It's all these SaaSpocalypse fears, right? That's what everyone's been worried about for the last couple of quarters. And tonight, the only real way Salesforce can beat PAC, all that skepticism, all the pessimism is showing that revenue is accelerating.
43:41and it's coming from these new AI offerings. We haven't seen that yet. That's what folks are hoping for in the back half of this year. Yeah, we've heard that Agent Force was sort of offering, what, an$800 million revenue stream thus far, but we're also seeing not bad revenue growth from Salesforce, or at least predicted, but a lot of that's coming from Informatica, right, from inorganic growth. Yeah, that's been the classic debate with Salesforce for so long, which is how much revenue growth is from those organic products versus some of the acquisitions. That's come back with Informatica. And yeah,$800 million a year on AgentForce, nothing to scoff at.
44:17But at the end of the day right now, if you're an application company and your revenue is decelerating, the market is really going to punish you.
44:25Caroline Hyde:Ryan Blastellica and the equities team, who we're all very close buddies with, they help us out a lot with their sort of stock coverage. they frame this as actually, if this goes well, it could change the story for the stock. What has the story been? I mean, has Salesforce been one of the, I don't want to say victims, but those under pressure from the SaaSpocalypse kind of narrative? I mean, it could change the narrative for the whole sector, right? Because Salesforce is the SaaS company. So when folks think about the SaaS industry getting hurt by AI, getting displaced, the idea that innovation and technology is no longer happening at these SaaS companies like, you know, an Adobe or a Salesforce, if they can show that that's changing, that could be very meaningful.
45:08But still, they hit a three-year low on their stock last month. They haven't recovered much and they're down 30 % year to date. So is there a narrative, what anecdotal evidence to fight back at some of what you wrote, Brody, that it isn't actually working at Agent Force within compliance offices yet? They can't sign off on it, for example. The big story, I think, is that the technology is real, but it takes a long time to implement it at big corporations, right? I mean, you or I can go on ChatGPT and do some, you know, whatever workflow you might do, but as a corporation, that's very difficult to implement it widely.
45:46In many ways, that compliance stickiness, though, makes Salesforce pretty sticky. Bloomberg's pretty good. We appreciate you. It's going to be a busy evening after the bell. There's also other stocks reporting. For example, Marvell, a fascinating chip stock. Look, there's many ways about the focus on photonics, on optics, on networking. But it's also, think about that$2 billion investment NVIDIA made in March in Marvell technology. How have they been performing with NVIDIA's backing?
46:12Caroline Hyde:Yeah, it's interesting the stock's down so much, you know, ahead of the earnings print. I don't see anything on the Bloomberg that sort of directly explains that. I mean, it's up 100 % this year. Yeah, exactly. It's a high flyer. So in our conversations about custom silicon, we super focus on Broadcom principally. Marvel has XPU, exactly the same idea. Rather than selling a chip, which is it, it partners with a hyperscaler or a technology company and says, we will do this with you, custom silicon. There's also some examples that that might extend outside of the world of data centers. We can talk about that at a later date.
46:42Caroline Hyde:But yeah, if this is happening and we're in a compute deficit, Marvel's a likely winner. And we'll see whether they can live up to some of the expectations around their numbers. And there are some lofty ones out there. But all of this at the moment is around AI's obvious rapid growth. But it is actually pushing global energy demand over Skyward too, forcing electrical grids, for example, to expand and modernize. Now, companies from China to Nigeria are investing in new tech to power the future. That's the focus of Bloomberg Primer this week. Take a listen. For a long time, rich countries haven't had to think about their grids all that much.
47:15Their electricity demand has been pretty much flat since the 2000s. But times are changing.
47:22Caroline Hyde:The explosive growth of AI. The rapid build-out of data centers. They're consuming enormous amounts of energy. You have four companies now that are intending to spend over$300 billion this year. With industries like AI and EVs growing fast, the world is predicted to use twice as much electricity by 2050. That's roughly a whole new USA's worth of electricity every five years. To make all that power and get it to where it needs to go, the world's grids need to evolve. All that new infrastructure will cost billions of dollars. But so did broadband internet. And that's ended up creating trillions of dollars of value.
48:03And some countries' grids are evolving faster than others. In China, power generation has gone up seven times since 2000. The battle to build the best grid is a battle to win the future.
48:15Caroline Hyde:Hear more from the team at Bloomberg Originals on today's episode of Primer. That's tonight on Bloomberg at 6 p.m. Eastern. and on Bloomberg Originals at 8 p.m. Eastern. Okay, coming up, we hear from UBS Asia-Pacific President Iqbal Khan on how he sees AI impacting jobs. This is Bloomberg Tech.
48:47Caroline Hyde:UBS Asia-Pacific President Iqbal Khan says AI will free up capacity and improve productivity, but also have an impact on jobs. He spoke exclusively to Bloomberg's Stephen Engel on the sidelines of the firm's Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong. I think the opportunity that we're seeing now with technology and with AI is very much around simplifying, speeding up the processes, not cutting corners, but actually fundamentally improving the process, consistency of process. Just think about documenting source of wealth of an individual. It's a pretty complex task. But if AI can help you contextualize that and help you actually do that and ensure that there's consistency, you're going to fundamentally improve the process in addition to what you're doing today.
49:32Nice segue, AI. It's in everyone's discussion book right now. Obviously, we just had Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan talking about that. We've heard some comments that he got a little bit of blowback. Bill Winters at Standard Chartered saying it's going to have a significant impact, obviously, on maybe some of the rank and files in the banking industry. How do you see AI over the next couple of years changing the way you hire and who you hire?
49:56Caroline Hyde:So let's step back, right? I mean, clearly there's a lot of focus on AI. We see high valuations around AI. There's a lot of talk around the value chain, everything from actual LLMs to data centers to the respective foundations, infrastructure. For us at UBS, we've been very focused on AI, specifically also led and driven by Sergio Armotti, our group CEO. We've implemented, for example, Copilot across the board as just one example. And I have to tell you, in the last six months, I've been using it more myself, and I've been using it personally as well as professionally. And it's actually made me more efficient, more effective.
50:32Caroline Hyde:And I think over time, everybody will become an AI native. It comes down to adoption and application, fundamentally. We look at this as something that will really enhance and increase capacity. What does that mean? As we become more productive, we can use that capacity to grow. We can use that capacity to serve our clients better. Imagine at UBS, when you come in through the door as a client, you get onboarded. And if you're eligible to getting a solution or service from a compliance and regulatory perspective, it comes down to, is that valuable to you or not? And we will serve you. Now, all of that process is curated, semi-automated, manual, people-driven.
51:13Caroline Hyde:You can AI-fy that, if that's actually a word today, right? And as you do that, you can create a lot of capacity. And that capacity can be used to serve clients even better and grow. What does it mean about top-line job growth? Do you cut back to get more efficient? How does it work? And how do you communicate that? Look, at the end of the day, as I said, I think it's more about productivity and capacity. Now, if we can use that capacity to serve our clients better, gain more share of wallet, grow faster, grow more, then the impact on costs and jobs is going to be less. Now, if we cannot, and this is an industry-wide topic, then of course it will have ramifications and implications on costs and jobs.
51:53Stephen Engel there with the UBS focus. But we now turn our attention to the White House. President Trump is now speaking as part of his cabinet meeting. Let's just take a listen. And they've really been that way for a year. If you follow markets, you know the value of long-term thinking. You plan, you diversify, you prepare for volatility. But in life, even the best strategies can't prevent every bad day. A fire, a loss, a disruption that demands immediate attention. When that happens, what matters isn't just what you planned, it's who shows up. That's where Cincinnati Insurance comes in. For more than 75 years, they've helped individuals and businesses navigate life's toughest moments with care, expertise, and personal attention.
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From the publisher
Bloomberg’s Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow discuss Micron and SK Hynix joining the $1 trillion market cap club and seeing continued momentum. Plus, Taiwanese prosecutors suspect three individuals of smuggling Nvidia chips to China through Japan, and XPRIZE founder and early SpaceX investor Peter Diamandis joins to discuss SpaceX's IPO as the company celebrates a major Starship milestone.
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