Trump and Putin are set to meet. Do they want the same thing?

0:00Come Friday, Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will meet in Alaska. The ultimate goal? Ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. At a recent press conference, President Trump said he would know pretty quickly which way it would go. And at the end of that meeting, probably in the first two minutes, I'll know exactly whether or not a deal can be made. And how will you know that? Because that's what I do. I make deals. But meetings between Trump and Putin are often unpredictable. Seven years ago, the two presidents held a notable summit in Helsinki, Finland. You might remember the other major story dominating the headlines back in 2018 was Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 U.S.

0:48election. Days before the Helsinki summit, Mueller announced charges against several Russian nationals. The indictment charges 12 Russian military officers by name for conspiring to interfere with the 2016 presidential election. Hours before the summit, President Trump had posted on social media that the relationship between the U.S. and Russia had, quote, never been worse. Then the two presidents met behind closed doors for two hours. When they emerged, President Trump appeared to have changed his tune about Putin and Russia, going so far as to question the U.S. intelligence community's finding that Russia had worked to influence the 2016 presidential election.

1:33People came to me, Dan Coats came to me and some others. They said they think it's Russia. I have President Putin. He just said it's not Russia. I will say this, I don't see any reason why it would be. Ambassador John Bolton, then President Trump's national security advisor, was with the president in Helsinki. And this time in Alaska, Bolton says the SNAP summit is another example of the way the president likes to do things. I think this is Trump believing that he can read the other side. He views international relations as basically being the personal relations between heads of state. Consider this.

2:13Will Trump be able to use his relationship with Putin to get what he wants? Or will Putin use Trump to get what he wants?

2:26From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

2:34It's Consider This from NPR. Details are still scarce, but Putin and Trump are set to meet this Friday in Alaska. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was not invited. Well, I want to bring in someone who knows firsthand how these summits can go. John Bolton was serving as President Trump's national security advisor during the Helsinki summit back in 2018. Ambassador Bolton, great to speak with you again. Well, thanks for having me. So what lessons did you take from that summit in Helsinki that perhaps Trump might wish to heed this time around? Well, this time, Trump is more the central actor, I think.

3:12He views this as a potential way of getting a resolution to the war in Ukraine that could lead to a Nobel Peace Prize, but it's a very advantageous meeting for Putin as well. I think he realizes he probably intentionally or unintentionally pushed Trump a little bit too far and not agreeing to a ceasefire over the past six months, and he's going to try and reel him back in. He's obviously presented some elements of a plan, at least to Steve Whitcoff, who brought them back in some confusion from Moscow. The envoy who was just meeting with President Putin in Moscow. Go on. So we'll probably see a more extended version of that plan, and Trump will decide whether it's something that he likes and whether he'll present it to Zelensky.

3:58I gather you believe that Trump has already made a mistake by virtue of holding this summit on U.S. soil. And I'm curious why, because that would seem to give Trump something of home court advantage. Well, I think he's giving an international pariah, leader of a rogue state, which invaded Ukraine unprovoked and has been excluded from these kinds of diplomatic encounters for years now, and is giving him a platform and an opportunity that Trump may not realize for Putin to try and work his KGB training to get an advantage here. If Putin convinces Trump that he legitimately wants peace but presents a plan that's unacceptable to Zelensky by having the first mover advantage, which is what this summit gives Putin, it could put Zelensky and Ukraine in an untenable position.

4:52How big a deal is it that Zelensky won't be there? Can you end a war being fought in Ukraine without Ukraine at the table? Look, I think earlier this year we saw Trump and Putin speaking without consulting Zelensky, and Putin actually made a lot of progress there. Remember what Putin's objective here is not to reach a peace agreement. He's trying to recreate the Russian Empire. And if he can back Trump away from providing U.S. military assistance to Ukraine, including critically military intelligence, that would be a huge victory from his point of view. So to the point that President Trump says he will, and I quote, probably in the first two minutes, know whether a peace deal can be reached, that he will be able to read Putin that fast.

5:39What do you think? Sure. Well, that's the way Trump does things. He's not going to read extensive briefing papers for this summit, which, by the way, is probably the fastest summit put together in recent history, certainly, that I can recall, basically nine days from when the idea came up in the Whitcoff meeting. One week from when we all learned about it. From when he announced it. So I think this is Trump believing that he can read the other side. He views international relations as basically being the personal relations between heads of state. He did essentially the same thing with Kim Jong-un the first time he met with him in Singapore in the first term and came out later and said the two of them had fallen in love.

6:25So it seems pretty clear what a win would look like for Trump. He secures some kind of agreement. He gets to walk away and say that was a great meeting. and I've ended the war and let me claim my Nobel Peace Prize. What are the risks for Trump at this summit? Well, I think the risks are actually pretty minimal. If he thinks he's got, with his own modifications, I think one thing Putin will try and do is get buy-in from Trump. If Trump gives a suggestion or a change, Putin will do everything he can to agree to it. He'd love for Trump to come out of this meeting thinking it's his plan. That would be the ideal outcome.

7:03But the risk is if he says Putin's not interested, he can pull out of the diplomatic negotiations. He can say a box on both your houses. And as I mentioned, he can cut off U.S. military assistance to Ukraine. On Monday, Trump was once again very critical of Zelensky for keeping the war going, you know, just for senseless reasons like maintaining Ukrainian freedom and independence. Although, is there a challenge for Trump here in that he seems to want to deal more than Putin does? Well, I think you can't get a Nobel Peace Prize unless you get the deal. But from Trump's point of view, if he thinks that that if Putin convinces him that he's sincere, whether he's whether he is or not, and Trump then takes the deal to Zelensky, who rejects it, he can say, I've done everything.

7:50Again, on Monday, he referred to the wars as Biden's war and that he didn't even commit himself to participate in a meeting between Zelensky and Putin, which he repeated endlessly during the 2024 campaign that he would do. He'd get the two of them in a room and solve it in 24 hours. He's even backed away from that now. Can you tell from the outside now, but can you tell who Trump is listening to on this? Who is advising him on what the strategy should be going in? Well, I assume anybody who's in the senior ranks in the national security community should be, but I'm not aware that they're having NSC meetings on this or that Trump's really listening to anybody other than Steve Witkoff, who took the wrong message back apparently from what Putin intended at their meeting last Wednesday.

8:40And how has had zero diplomatic experience until this year. But he's a friend of Trump's. Game this up from Vladimir Putin's point of view, understanding none of us are inside Vladimir Putin's head. What are the risks for him? I think his main risk is that Trump leaves the meeting unalterably opposed to what Putin has come with. If Putin can convince him that he's sincere, that he wants peace and that his plan is reasonable, then I think he's brought Trump over to his side again. It's the two old friends, as Trump thought they were going into this second term, have reached an agreement that looks reasonable.

9:21And now the Europeans, and particularly Ukraine, should accept it. That is former National Security Advisor John Bolton. John Bolton, thank you. Thanks for having me. This episode was produced by Catherine Fink and Megan Lim. It was edited by Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan.

9:44It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.