Trump's tariffs are (still) coming

0:00So today, Friday, was the day. The day that larger tariffs on imports from a long list of countries were going to kick in. The Trump administration was clear about that as late as Thursday afternoon. Here's Press Secretary Caroline Levitt. Yes, tomorrow, August 1st, the reciprocal rates will be going into effect. On Wednesday, there was this social media post from President Trump. The August 1st deadline is the August 1st deadline. It stands strong and will not be extended. And then it was extended. Thursday night, the president signed an executive order setting new tariff rates that will go into effect August 7th.

0:38So businesses are still bracing for more punishing import taxes first announced back in April to potentially take effect. Here's how Shelby Somerville explains the predicament. She's with Greater Louisville, Inc., the regional chamber of commerce. A lot of the proposed or talked about tariffs would have implications on a lot of the businesses in our area. But what's even harder than adapting to that sort of policy change or tariff is really the uncertainty. So businesses can adapt to taxes and tariffs, but what they can't adapt to is something that's changing, you know, every 90 days or every other day.

1:15The tariffs are supposed to help U.S. manufacturers by making their products more price competitive with foreign imports. Ethan Karp is the CEO of Magnet. That's a company that advises manufacturers in Northeast Ohio. And he says some of them are excited. Some of them have gotten new business and they're very optimistic. Some of them have lost business because it's export and the exports were being taxed. And most of them are in the tire kicker stage. They are being asked if they can provide new American business. But nobody's locked in those orders because nobody knows for sure what the tariffs are going to be.

1:52And the rates could change again in the next week because the White House says Trump is continuing to negotiate, quote, tailor-made trade deals with individual countries. Trump said Thursday that it's going great. We have made a few deals today that are excellent deals for the country. You know, we're taking in literally trillions of dollars for the country. This is making our country very rich and respected again. Consider this. Trump's tariffs are still coming. But how are his plans panning out so far?

2:29From NPR, I'm Elsa Chang.

2:40It's Consider This from NPR. We got a new economic data point Friday morning to throw into this discussion of President Trump's tariffs. New Labor Department numbers showed that job growth slowed sharply this spring. Friday afternoon, the president said that he was firing the head of the government agency that produced that report. We're going to talk through all of this now with White House correspondent Daniel Kurtzleben and economics correspondent Scott Horsley. Hello to both of you. Hey, Elsa. Okay, Scott, let's start with this morning's jobs report, which was weaker than forecasters expected, right?

3:15What does it show exactly? Yeah, it shows U.S. employers added just 73 ,000 jobs last month, which was a bigger slowdown than economists projected. More importantly, we got revised figures for May and June that pretty much erased nearly all the job growth that had been tallied for those two months. So when you take it together, this shows the labor market was a lot weaker in the spring and early summer than we had thought. And the news rattled investors who were already nervous about those rising tariffs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 542 points, or about 1.25%. The weakness in the job market is likely to put more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which it did not do earlier this week when policymakers met.

3:56But at the same time, the Fed has to keep a wary eye on inflation, which has been creeping up partly as a result of those Trump tariffs. Right. And, Danielle, for the most part, this new round of tariffs, they're not set to take effect for another week, right? So what's in store at that point? Well, higher tariffs pretty much across the border are in store. Yesterday, Trump signed two executive orders on tariffs. One of them said that as of today, tariffs of 35 percent would apply to many goods from Canada, one of our biggest trading partners. Then another order said that goods from many other countries will soon be taxed at 15 percent or more.

4:32In the case of Brazil, it goes as high as 50 percent. And those tariffs, like you said, are set to take effect next week. Now, that means, since there's that time lag, that these new tariffs could still change. After all, Trump announces new tariffs all the time, and he also announces deals before they're even done all the time. So more could happen. More could happen. What do you think the president is trying to achieve ultimately with all of these tariffs? Well, he's listed a few aims this year. He has said that tariffs are supposed to boost revenue, bolster manufacturing, and also encourage foreign countries to change policies on things like, for example, controlling the flow of illegal drugs.

5:10But earlier this summer, I was talking to one business leader, and he said that to him, Trump isn't trying to have a coherent strategy with his tariffs. Rather, it's just that Trump likes tariffs as a tool. Tariffs are a hammer, so he sees every problem as a nail. And it's true that Trump does seem to be most comfortable in a tariff negotiation or any negotiation. He uses the massive U.S. economy to get leverage, and also he sees negotiations as zero-sum. But in international trade, ideally, trade agreements are supposed to be mutually beneficial. The tariffs also seem to be backfiring, at least so far, when it comes to boosting manufacturing.

5:49U.S. factories have been cutting jobs in each of the last three months. Tariffs are already showing up in higher prices as well for things like toys and appliances that we import a lot of. And that's pushing inflation in the wrong direction, which is not ideal for a president who campaigned on a promise of bringing prices down. OK, well, with all of these consequences, Daniel, how would you say Americans are reacting to Trump's tariffs? Not well. His overall economic approval rating has fallen off since he took office back in January. That rating was slightly positive, according to the poll aggregator RealClearPolling.

6:25Now, that rating has been negative for a while now. Right now, it's at around negative 12 points. And we've also seen other polls showing that Americans are just doubtful about tariffs specifically. Now, right now, we don't know how big the effect of tariffs will be. We're going to see that play out yet. But I talked to Scott Lincecum. He's a trade expert at the libertarian-leaning Cato Institute. And he told me that no matter what size the effects of these tariffs are, the tariffs are still an unforced error. They can still slow growth. They can still increase prices. you can still do real damage, right?

7:00You know, I can cut off my pinky and still live a full life, but that doesn't mean cutting off my pinky was a good idea. And to continue, maybe torture that metaphor, the effects of these tariffs, we're still going to see if the effects are bigger than pinky sized. Indeed. Well, Scott, I mean, we also got a new GDP report this week. What do you think that report tells us about how the president's economic agenda is working out right now? Well, tariffs caused a big swing in trade, which depressed GDP early in the year and then made it look somewhat better in the springtime. Overall, the U.S. economy did grow in the first six months of the year, but only about half as fast as in each of the two previous years.

7:40Now, of course, tariffs are just one part of the president's agenda. Trump is also cracking down on immigration, and that seems to be driving some people underground. The share of immigrants in the U.S. who are either working or looking for work has fallen pretty sharply in the last year. That might be making it harder for employers in industries like construction or restaurants or home health care that rely on a lot of immigrant workers to find the people they need. The administration hopes to fill those jobs by getting more native-born workers to come off the sidelines and join the workforce.

8:11However, so far, there's not much evidence that that's happening. OK, well, given all of these ripple effects, Danielle, how is President Trump talking about all of this? Well, today's jobs report clearly got under his skin. And rather than address the slowing job growth, he instead just decided to attack the messenger. He went on social media and posted that he was firing Dr. Erica McIntyre for she's the commissioner of labor statistics. Now, she was a Biden appointee and he accuses her, therefore, of manipulating the jobs numbers to hurt him and Republicans. And really, this is an astounding moment.

8:46Now, first of all, we've seen no evidence that she manipulated anything. But furthermore, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it's just staffed by numbers people who those of us who are reporters and deal with them, we know they keep their work apolitical. And Republican and Democratic administrations have long trusted jobs numbers. So Trump here is really just casting doubt on economic reality, on a shared reality. And the consequences could be huge. Yeah, you know, the president can take his sharpie to the hurricane map, but it does not change the shape of the storm. That is NPR's Scott Horsley and Daniel Kersleben.

9:22Thank you to both of you. Thank you. Could be with you. This episode was produced by Connor Donovan and Jason Fuller with audio engineering by Simon Laszlo Jansen. It was edited by John Ketchum, Rafael Nam, and Sammy Yenigan. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. And a message to our Consider This Plus listeners. Thank you for supporting the work of NPR journalists and helping keep public radio strong. Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors. Learn more at plus.npr.org.

9:57It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Elsa Chang.