In short
Consumer VC Podcast Episode Notes: Harsh Truth About European Startups ft. Joe Seager
Episode Overview In this episode of the Consumer VC podcast, host Mike Gelb interviews Joe Seager, a partner at True, a multi-stage investment and advisory platform focused on consumer ventures. They discuss Joe's experiences, insights on the European venture landscape, the impact of Brexit, and the evolving role of AI in consumer markets.
Key Highlights
Introduction to Joe Seager
- Background: Formerly worked alongside Sir Richard Branson at Virgin, where he launched ventures across various sectors including fintech and autonomous vehicles.
- Current Role: Partner at True, focusing on consumer venture investment and advisory.
Insights on Working with Richard Branson
- Described Branson as an iconic British entrepreneur who encourages innovation and a failure-tolerant culture.
- Gained exposure to a diverse range of sectors, which fostered a pioneering spirit.
True's Unique Investment Model
- Multi-Stage Structure: True combines venture capital, private equity, public equity, and advisory services.
- This structure provides a comprehensive ecosystem for startups, leveraging expertise across different market stages.
- Founder Support: True actively leverages its corporate network to provide startups with access to potential partnerships and customers.
The European Venture Landscape
- Fragmentation: The European venture ecosystem is more fragmented compared to the U.S., with significant variations in funding across countries.
- UK, Germany, and France are key players, but the UK’s dominance has decreased slightly post-Brexit.
- Brexit Impact: Brexit has complicated capital flows and LP structures, influencing investor dynamics and cross-border deal flow.
Consumer Categories and Investment Trends
- Venture-Backable Categories: Discussion on which consumer categories remain attractive for venture investment.
- Challenges in Consumer Investing: The high loss ratio and the difficulty of gauging brand strength at early stages complicate investments in consumer product companies.
AI’s Role in Consumer Markets
- AI Integration: AI is viewed as a transformative element that can enhance consumer experiences, although not all businesses must be AI-driven.
- Opportunities:
- Reimagining existing consumer experiences (e.g., AI shopping assistants).
- Creating personalized consumer experiences tailored to individual needs.
Founder Characteristics
- Joe emphasizes the importance of founders who demonstrate deep conviction and intellectual engagement with their business opportunities.
- True looks for founders who are passionate about solving significant problems, thereby increasing the likelihood of venture-scale outcomes.
Caution in Consumer Product Investments
- Joe stresses the need for rigorous evaluation and caution when investing in consumer products, especially at the pre-seed and seed stages.
Key Takeaways
- Differentiation in the Market: True’s model stands out due to its integrated approach and commitment to supporting founders through various stages of growth.
- Navigating Fragmentation: European investors must adapt to a less centralized venture landscape, often requiring more travel and local engagement to identify promising startups.
- AI as a Tool, Not a Requirement: While AI can enhance consumer experiences, businesses can succeed without it, provided they deliver value effectively.
- Investment Discipline: Even when founders are compelling, the market’s potential and business model viability are crucial to making investment decisions.
Conclusion Joe Seager’s insights provide a nuanced understanding of the European startup ecosystem, the implications of Brexit, and the evolving role of technology in consumer ventures. Through his experience at True, he underscores the importance of a strong support network for founders and the need for cautious evaluation of consumer product investments.
Recommended Reading
- Personal Inspiration: *James Dyson's Autobiography* – Highlights the tenacity required for entrepreneurial success.
- Professional Insight: *The Technology Trap* by Carl Frey – Explores the historical impacts of technology on labor and economies.
Additional Resources For more episodes, visit [Consumer VC](http://www.theconsumervc.com) and follow Mike Gelb on Twitter [@mikegelb](https://twitter.com/mikegelb).
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00AI will play a role in building and scaling companies of all sorts. There was one moment when I was in the back of the car, watching this car steer around Kings Cross area, which is a super busy area in London, seeing a little window into the future. It's important to say that not everything has to be AI. Great businesses were built before ChatGPT came out and great businesses will be built after ChatGPT came out, where the product is not AI. Growing up in the UK, he wanted to be an entrepreneur or he was interested in startups. He was the sort of iconic figure. So it was amazing. I loved it. crazy kind of coverage of different sectors and verticals.
0:35We were doing kind of flying taxis one minute and autonomous driving the next and digital banking the next. So never quite knew what was coming.
0:51Hey, I'm Mike Gallup and this is ConsumerBC, where we break down what it takes to invest in and build scalable consumer brands and consumer technology companies. If you're enjoying the show, please hit that subscribe button on whichever channel that you're listening to it on, whether it's YouTube or Spotify or Apple Podcasts or another channel. And also check out and subscribe to theconsumervc.com. We put a lot of work into finding and sharing the latest deals, latest product launches and updates. If you really do are interested in the emerging consumer sector, it's a must. subscribe at theconsumerbc.com.
1:31You won't be sorry. And know when you do subscribe, you're helping us make more of this content. So check out theconsumerbc.com and I hope it's helpful. Our guest today is Joe Seeger-Dupuis, who is Director of Investment at True. True is a consumer specialist investment and innovation advisory firm that manages about a billion dollars worth of assets. And they invest across consumer, retail, leisure, and technology sectors. True's VC fund, which is what Joe and I chat about, focuses on pre-seed to Series A, and they invest up to$2 million in companies like Onspired, Sava Health, and Fabric. We discuss what it was like working for Richard Branson prior to joining True, some of the differences between Europe and the U.S.
2:18on the venture side, the impact of Brexit on capital, what he's most excited about today in consumer, and much, much, much more. I really did love this conversation with Joe. But before we get into it, I want to share more information about our sponsor, Glymps. This episode is brought to you by Glymps. Glymps is an AI-powered, end-to-end deductions management service that's focused on recovering revenue from KEHI, UNFI, Amazon, and Target for consumer brands. They centralize deductions with backups. They fully handle disputing on your behalf, on the brand's behalf, and they streamline the accounting process.
2:51They work with 100-plus brands, including Cure Hydration, Little Bucks, and more. If you have a brand and you'd like to learn more about how they can help you fight deductions in retail, go to tryglimpse.com. And now, without further ado, here's Joe. Joe, thank you so much for joining me here today. How are you doing? Yeah, good, thank you. I'm good, thanks. Thanks for having me. I'm looking forward to it. Yeah, thanks for spending a Friday night with me. I mean, I feel very privileged. You could be doing anything else, literally anything else, but you're here virtually and joining me for an episode.
3:26Thank you so much. You can't see my pine. It's just out of the camera shot there. Love it. Love it. Love it. Oh, that's great. So I have to ask, we can start in a number of different places, but I have to ask, what was it like working for Sir Richard Branson? Yeah. I mean, it was amazing, to be honest. He is the sort of quintessential British entrepreneur, if you like. So everyone growing up in the UK, he wanted to be an entrepreneur or he was interested in startups. he was the sort of iconic figure. And I think having the opportunity to work for him for, I was there for five years and saw kind of the scope of opportunities and the scope of things that he's interested in.
4:12I mean, the Virgin brand is pretty unique in the sense that it's kind of covering so many different sectors, so many different business models and was really a kind of pioneer of the kind of, yeah, startup spirit. it. It's okay if you fail and let's go and kind of build big standalone businesses. So it was amazing. I loved it. Crazy kind of coverage of different sectors and verticals. We'd be doing kind of flying taxis one minute and autonomous driving the next and digital banking the next. So never quite knew what was coming, but it was great fun. How did you balance that? I mean, in terms of seeing all these different opportunities in terms of what he's obviously exposed to and what he finds exciting.
4:56Yeah, I think I'm the... So I helped a lot on the Virgin branded development side. So we were looking at opportunities to create new Virgin branded companies around the world. And I think the Virgin brand has a certain set of kind of... So there's a certain sense of magic that works really well with service oriented industries that are about kind of going out and having fun and living life to the full. So there was a kind of a clarity that the Virgin brand brought in terms of what we should be going after and how we should be looking to build new companies under the brand. And on the venture capital side of things, it was pretty agnostic, to be honest.
5:31It was mainly technology driven, but there was some consumer stuff. There was some enterprise stuff. There was even some stuff in kind of biotech and cell-based meats. and I think one of the privileges of working for someone like Richard Branson is that he has incredible access to some really interesting companies and we tried to kind of lean into that and be open-minded and so that led to quite a diverse portfolio. Totally, I mean yes, I can only imagine. When did you realize you wanted to steer into VC or that VC was the thing that you wanted to do? What was that moment? I think, so I was kind of hassling the guy who led the venture strategy at Virgin for a while to let me look over his shoulder and learn a little bit about how it works.
6:20I'd always been quite interested in VC and wanted to kind of understand it. And I remember distinctly, there was one moment when I was in the backseat of one of the Wave driverless cars. So Wave is a UK-based startup, this autonomous driving software. And I was in the back of the car watching this car steer around Kings Cross area, which is a super busy area in London with very little human intervention. And it felt like one of those moments where you're kind of seeing a little window into the future. And I think the energy that that gave me, both that experience, but also interacting with that founder during the diligence process.
7:01it was just very clear to me that that's what I wanted to spend my time doing. And so that kind of set me on this more determined path to find a place where I could do VC full-time and think about it all day, every day. No, for sure. And I know that you, I mean, that only makes sense. And now, I mean, I'm in Los Angeles and see the Waymos going around, you know, all the time. And it's pretty mind boggling. My daughter always says, oh, look, a robot car. And it's just unbelievable. Unbelievable. So you joined True in early 2022, which is also an interesting time and venture, if you can take us back to 2022.
7:39But what also drew you to True specifically? Yeah, so I think on True specifically, I think what's really important for me is to be at a place where you feel like you have a differentiated edge. And I think, I'm sure we'll come on to talk about True more broadly, but I think the combination of the sort of sector specialist focus around the consumer sector was something that I thought was obviously resonated quite strongly with my experience having worked at Virgin for five years and that being such a strong consumer brand. But also just the scale of the opportunity that the consumer space can create.
8:20I mean, it's notoriously difficult, right, from a venture perspective, but there's lots of stats out there in terms of the real breakout winners have been consumer-facing businesses. So I really liked that. And I liked the idea of doing it within a specialist platform where you had a kind of unique insight that you could really kind of deploy and use every day in the job. And then the other thing is that True's business model, as I'm sure we'll come on to, is a bit different in that we have the venture fund, which I help lead. But alongside the venture fund, we also have a private equity fund and a public equity fund on the investment side.
8:58So really interesting insight and exposure across different parts of the kind of the value chain there. And then alongside all of that, that we have an advisory business that's working with some of the world's largest corporates in the consumer and retail space, providing kind of consulting and advisory services around technology and value creation for those businesses. So just had this kind of really interesting multi-pronged business model, really strong ecosystem approach within a vertical that I was super interested in um so that was the kind of head part of the decision I think the heart part of the decision was meeting the team um meeting the founders and having a really strong alignment of kind of values and and ways of working if you like um and I thought I could both kind of learn a lot from everybody here and contribute a lot to True's future.
9:51So it felt like the right fit for sure. So True, I mean, as you mentioned, True has, you know, it's quite, it's a multi-stage structure. You have VC, PE, and then also public markets all under one roof. Talk to me a little bit about how that gives you an edge when spawning and supporting early consumer and retail companies. I think it ultimately comes down to kind of two different things that are related, but slightly different. I think on the one hand is the expertise that you can develop from having lots of people focused on one sector and different parts of the market. but there's a certain benefit you get from having coverage of multiple different business models in multiple different geographies at multiple different stages and trying to use that when we're making initial investment decisions and then supporting our companies as they grow to unlock that expertise and insight for our portfolio founders ultimately.
10:54So there's a big element that's kind of political expertise driven. I think the other big element that True has is network. And so across those three investment strategies and the advisory business that I mentioned, we now have an ecosystem of over 60 portfolio companies, about 200 corporates around the world that we're connected to, 25 of which are active clients of the advisory business. And then all of the associated kind of advisors and executives that are in and around that activity. And that creates quite a powerful network for our founders to tap into, whether that's for direct customer introductions for some of the kind of B2B opportunities that we invest in.
11:37Or again, just to kind of learn from some of the challenges of and find solutions to some of those challenges of scaling a big consumer brand. So we kind of use that edge at every step of the kind of investment life cycle, if you like, from original sourcing, screening, diligencing, and then ultimately supporting our companies. But I think it's that kind of differentiation that was so appealing to me when I was thinking about where I wanted to kind of build my career and venture. No, I appreciate that. Multi-stage funds, they also take a lot of heat as well, because if you don't exercise your pro rata in a company, or maybe you don't lead the next round, for example, because other investors obviously know that they have other investment vehicles, obviously VCPE and then all the way to public.
12:31If you don't exercise those options, then it's also a negative signal to the rest of the market on the company. right? Because you're obviously investors in the company, you know the company best, and you decide not to move forward and keep on investing in them. How do you reconcile with that? I think it's a bit different for us because they're very distinct strategies across the VC and private equity portfolio. So they're different LP bases. They're very different portfolio constructions, investment strategies. On the venture side of things, we have primarily focused on the pre-seed and seed stage.
13:06And we are looking at primarily technology-driven opportunities. So either consumer-facing technology or B2B technologies that is selling into the consumer sector where we can open up the network and help accelerate on the go-to-market side of things. And the private equity portfolio, oh, sorry, strategy is more a kind of growth and buyout strategy. So there's quite a lot of letters, if you like, between what we're doing on the on the venture side and where the private actually... But do they actually ever interact? I know it's a different LP base, but if a pre-seed or seed investment is performing pretty well that actually needs growth investment, would you actually turn to the PE side or not?
13:52In theory, it could possibly happen. It never has happened. I think it's unlikely that it would happen. Oh, interesting. Okay. We're underwriting a kind of very high growth outlier outcome and the venture strategy and the private equity funds are a little bit more focused on established profitable business models that are growing healthily, but they're not. So more like traditional private equity as opposed to maybe like growth equity for companies. Yeah, primarily. They're flexible around structure, but I think that's primarily the focus. And so we haven't yet had the problem where we've had that kind of potential overlap.
14:34And it's certainly not something that we underwrite to in the venture fund. We want our companies to go public or be massive strategic acquisitions, certainly not exiting to our sister fund, as great as they are. No, it makes a lot of sense. It makes a lot of sense. And that's also really helpful. Can you talk a little bit about as well about True's ecosystem of I think you have like 200 plus corporates. and partners, how does it actually work in practice for founders at the C stage or pre-seed that can actually use obviously those relationships and partnerships in order to leverage and grow their companies?
15:11Yeah. So I guess the first thing to say is that the advisory business is a standalone business for True delivering a strategic advisory service to corporates in the consumer and retail sector. So that is not part of a venture team per se. It's a kind of independent but adjacent business that we work very closely with for lots of obvious reasons around overlapping areas of interest and also the network. I think in terms of tangibly how it shows up is often it's before we've even made the investment, we're accessing the stakeholders within major corporates to help us sharpen our diligence effectively.
15:53So to give you an example, we invested in a company that's doing computer vision software for detecting theft in retail environments. And as part of our diligence, we could talk to the retailers in our network, senior technology leaders within that, you know, who are looking at that space to validate some of the key assumptions around the kind of competitive differentiation of the technology. So we start early in terms of activating that network to help us make better investment decisions. And then once we're an investor, we're very proactive with making introductions of those companies to people in that network to become either strategic partners or potential customers.
16:33So one of the early winners in our venture fund was a company called Unmind, which is a mental wellness platform for employees. Clearly, retailers and other consumer goods companies have very large employee bases. So that was quite an attractive customer segment for them and we were able to make a bunch of introductions once we'd invested that then kind of gave them the the um the base load of arr to go on and raise a seed and and beyond um and so it's really about trying to join the dots and and i guess help shortcut what can be very long sales cycles in a b2b context particularly when selling into consumer retail buyers um And then the ecosystem, I guess, more broadly shows up on the consumer side, as I mentioned, through that kind of expertise network that we have from the portfolio companies, the corporates.
17:26You know, a lot of the challenges that any consumer company will face will ultimately rhyme, whether it's a consumer products business or a consumer technology business. And so we feel pretty good that almost anything that our founders come to us to ask for their advice, ask for advice and support, you know, that information and knowledge is not necessarily in my head or the venture team's head. But our role is to be a conduit into the broader network that True has to find the person who knows the answer because we will know someone who knows the answer. How do you think about the overall breakdown in terms of number of, for example, retail tech or commerce technology businesses that you want to invest in versus the number of true consumer facing businesses?
18:08It's about 50-50. When we look at the deals we've done over the last 12 months, it's 50-50 B2C versus B2B. I think the B2B stuff, we have to have the ultimate North Star of why us. And so we have to believe that there's a very clear case for us as an investor. And it primarily comes down to how we can activate that network to accelerate on the go-to-market side of things. there's lots of interesting b2b opportunities that we see but we wouldn't touch because we're very focused on how how do we basically bring true's ecosystem to bear to have a better outcome and to to have a right to be on that cap table and rather than just any other investor with with capital um so yeah it's about 50 50.
18:56okay got it that's that's helpful um can you can you give us also, we've had a number of episodes, actually a majority of episodes focusing on the US market. Talk to me a little bit about when you're looking at companies in Europe, in different markets, how do you think about Europe and maybe some of the differences between Europe versus the US when it comes to venture? Sure. So maybe just to start at the top with a kind of quick 101, I guess, on Europe, because I think it's a term that captures lots of different definitions. So you've got Europe, the kind of geographic continent, which is like 40 odd countries, about 700 million people.
19:39And then within that, you've got the European Union, which is a kind of political and economic union amongst 27 of those countries. And it includes most of the largest economies in Europe, the continent, the ones that doesn't include Russia, Switzerland, and now famously the UK after we decided to leave in 2016, which I'm sure we'll come on to talk about. And then sometimes you get Israel bundled in as well when people talk about Europe, particularly on the venture side of things, because it's sort of geographically close, I guess, and maybe not a big enough ecosystem on its own to have a standalone nomenclature, but is not part of Europe, the continent or the EU.
20:27And so if we kind of take the working definition of Europe as like the EU plus UK and Switzerland is probably the most relevant, that's 29 countries speaking 29 languages. There's some with multiple languages, some with overlaps. and it's about 500 million people across Europe. So about 50 % larger than the US and the economy is about the same size as the US, a little bit less. So that's the kind of big picture backdrop on Europe as a whole. And then within that, you've got about 60 % of that sitting within UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain. So in general, like a little bit more fragmented and that's the theme we'll come back to.
21:14On the venture side, similar but a little bit different. So there's about$50 billion of venture capital funding that's gone in over the last 12 months. The most of that is in the UK. So the UK makes up about 30 % of that. And then France and Germany add up to about another 30 % and then you've got the rest. So pretty similar in terms of the three, UK, France and Germany being important, both economically and from a venture perspective. Spain is a little bit behind in terms of venture, but growing very quickly. And then Italy is quite a long way behind. I think some of the less obvious parts of Europe that are actually really prominent from a venture perspective is one is Sweden.
22:01So it's only a couple of percentage points of the aggregate kind of GDP, but it's about 5 % of venture funding. And, you know, unsurprisingly, has generated some incredible venture outcomes. Why do you think that is the case of Sweden? I think there tends to be very strong technical talent in the Nordics in general. So I think that's definitely one. I also think one of the potential kind of downsides of Europe is also a little bit of an upside in that because a lot of the domestic markets can be quite small, I think founders have to think internationally from day one. And so I think that creates a different kind of almost like mindset and paradigm within founders.
22:47They know they're going to have to scale across borders quickly to build a big business. And so they're quite well positioned to do that. And so I think Revolut is similar. So that's a big fintech winner in the European ecosystem, recently valued at$75 billion. They got their initial wedge from dealing with the complexity of having to travel across Europe and deal with different currencies and get ripped off by the banks on FX. And so they kind of use that as their initial wedge into the banking space and have now been able to broaden out into a broader kind of challenger bank. So yeah, I think that kind of international mindset from day one is a really important component of many of these businesses.
23:29So yeah, Sweden sort of punches above its weight. Estonia punches above its weight as well. tiny country in Eastern Europe, but has generated some of the biggest outcomes in venture. So Skype, which Microsoft bought, Bolt, which is a big challenger to Uber in Europe, and TransferWise, now Wise, which is another big fintech. So there's these kind of obvious hubs, but there's also the less obvious spaces across Europe. And I think that's probably, to your question around differences with the US. I think that's probably one of the big themes is this kind of increased fragmentation in the European ecosystem.
24:09So as I mentioned, like, you know, UK is dominant, London is about 20 % of the venture market in Europe. So quite high, but you compare that to somewhere like the Valley in the US, which is north of 50 % in the last 12 months. So much more concentrated in general, that is a little bit higher than the long run average, but it's still, I think it's about 40 % or above historically. And then the gap is sort of the number two. So in Europe, that would be Paris, which is London's about two and a half times the size of Paris. I think San Fran or the Valley versus New York is like a factor of seven or something in the last 12 months.
24:46So I think that fragmentation is one of the key kind of differences in the European ecosystem versus the US ecosystem. This episode is brought to you by Glimpse. Glimpse is an AI-powered, end-to-end deductions management service that's focused on recovering revenue from KEHI, UNFI, Amazon, and Target for consumer brands. They centralize deductions with backups. They fully handle disputing on your behalf, the brand's behalf, and streamline the accounting process. For more information, check out tryglimpse.com and let them know that Mike sent you. Do you find because Europe is less concentrated when it comes to venture dollars, like you mentioned how Silicon Valley is about 50 % of venture dollars in the US versus London is, I believe, 30 %?
25:3620. 20, sorry. Yeah, yeah. Sorry about that. Do you find that venture investors like yourself in Europe are actually traveling a lot more throughout Europe to try to find and win deals versus maybe US investors? Yeah, I think we certainly at True, we're based in the UK, but we are regularly traveling across Europe, particularly to some of those key hubs, so sort of the Nordics, and Germany and France to meet with other investors on the ground to meet with founders because you know the opportunity can can be anywhere and I think it's you know one of our key jobs is to make sure that we've got good coverage of all of those local ecosystems as well as the UK and I get the sense that obviously Brexit has complicated matters a little bit in ways that we can maybe talk about but I still think it's pretty prevalent to see cross-border investing for a lot of venture funds, particularly European funds investing into, as in EU funds investing into other EU countries, that is very widespread.
26:40And similarly with the UK as well. How has Brexit, I know that we've kind of teased it, but how has Brexit really kind of changed the flow of venture capital, maybe from LP structures to cross-border deal flow? Yeah. So I actually looked at this because I wanted data on the answer. So I looked at kind of the UK is a share of European venture in 2013 to 2015 so the year is running up to the referendum for us to leave the European Union and then versus today and it's gone from kind of 35 % back then to about 30 % today so the UK is a little bit less dominant than it was but I don't think that's all to do with Brexit by any means I think if you look at the same data Germany's become a little bit less dominant as well.
27:29So I think there's just a kind of general mix as other ecosystems mature. I think the sort of cross-border investment question, I think, you know, there's research out there that shows that UK investors pull back slightly from investing in European markets, but European investors actually didn't pull back quite as much from the UK. So I think the absolute size of the prize in the UK is still attracting inbound investment from European venture investors. I think on your question of like the LP base, I think one of the other big differences in the UK, sorry, in Europe versus the US is that in the US, I think about 70 % of venture funding comes from private financial institutions.
28:20So endowments, pension funds, et cetera. That's much lower in Europe. So that's about 30 % in Europe. One of the sort of gap fillers, if you like, is the national development banks and the public institutions that are major LPs in a lot of European venture funds. So, you've got the European investment funds that is investing primarily in EU-based funds. And then you've got the kind of equivalent British business bank in the UK that plays the same role, a little bit less active, but plays the same role. And post Brexit, the access for UK managers to access funds from the European Investment Fund is now much harder.
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29:01And that's been a bit of a headwind for UK managers, because as I mentioned, I think the EIF is about 10 times more active than the British Business Bank. So that has also created some complexity more on the LP side than the than the direct investing side. So it's harder to get access to raise from the EU, for example, if you're a British-based fund. Yeah, certainly from the sort of public institutions like the EIF. There are also kind of national-level development banks in each of the ecosystems. So you've got BPI in France, you've got KFW in Germany, and they typically want to see the capital that they're investing to go into startups in their local economy.
29:48So it creates a bit of geographic constraint that has to be managed. What, from your standpoint, what is the difference if US funds, for example, are predominantly maybe endowments, for example, right? Where they're raising from versus in across Europe where maybe your big LP holders are public institutions. How does that kind of change the dynamic or does that change the dynamic in terms of how you all would make investments? I think it can. I think probably the bigger challenge that we need to unlock in the UK is just that really – UK and Europe is to mobilize that sort of pension fund pool of capital and really get that flowing into the private markets and the early stage private markets.
30:38And there's lots of reforms and conversation around how to do that. But I think it's just maybe there's a cultural mismatch as well in that I think the US in general is much more risk on and much more willing to invest in asset classes like VC that have long term outcomes, which is great, but sort of limited liquidity in the short term. and I think we need to try and find a way to unlock that in Europe because I think it just creates a wider pool of potential investors for any given fundraise, right? So I think it's an important thing that we need to do and I think it's one of the reasons that the US, I think, is like more than three times the size of Europe from a venture funding perspective despite only being marginally bigger from an economic perspective in terms of GDP.
31:28And so I think that participation amongst private financial institutions into European venture funds is something that we need to work on. Yeah. I mean, do you think that then because of Brexit that London needs to become maybe more even more so a global hub or attractive in order to actually build LP bases beyond Britain? I think so. I think I wouldn't necessarily link it to the Brexit discussion. I think we have to be open to capital inflows from international markets, right? And I think we've got a lot of the key ingredients that you would look for. We've got incredible talent, we've got great academic institutions, robust institutions more broadly, good track record of producing great outcomes and unicorns and decacorns.
32:21So I think all of the components are there. I think the sort of geopolitical picture right now is obviously complicated and evolving. And I think Europe, even though we've left Europe, I think Europe, the EU continues to be a really important partner for us culturally, politically, economically. But the theory at least, the theory that we were sold in Brexit was that we could be more open, more globalized as an economy and attract capital flows from elsewhere. So I'd like to see that show up as well, given that was the promise of the... Do you think that has showed up yet or no? No, I don't think it has.
32:57Certainly not in the magnitude that was positioned during the referendum. And I think certainly not to a sufficient extent to offset some of the harms that have happened so far. So it's obviously, we've gone through the sort of torture over the last 10 years in the UK of relitigating the referendum because it was very tight. was 52%, 48%. And that was quite an unhelpful and unproductive conversation for a long time. So I think we kind of need to put that to bed a little bit, but also be eyes wide open on how it's actually worked out so that we can do something about it. How... Thank you so much for kind of giving us the landscape when it comes to, from the venture side, the LP base, when it comes to, and also from a deal flow side too, when it comes to investing in European countries, or investing in founders and companies that are based in Europe.
33:53From the company side, so your investments or even prospective investments, how has Brexit changed in terms of how they see going international? For example, is a British company more likely to actually expand not into Europe, but maybe to the US or other? Has that changed at all in terms of how they think of international? Does a EU company, for example, think, okay, I actually don't want to maybe UK is going to become later or delay expanding into the UK? Let's look at other markets. How has Brexit changed it from that perspective? I think there's a lot in there. And I think the answer probably depends a little bit on the specifics of the business model and the category they're operating in.
34:40I think obviously the US is, you know, it's the largest consumer market in the world. And so particularly for UK-based founders, I think given the commonalities of language and culture, there was always going to be on the radar to move into quite quickly because it's just such a massive opportunity. And obviously on the physical product side of things, that's been complicated through the tariffs and whatnot. And so maybe that's giving a bit more pause for thought for a lot of founders out there. But I think the US always has been and will continue to be, I'm sure, fundamentally quite an appealing market to go after.
35:18I think on certain sectors where there's more commonality in regulatory framework, for example, across the European Union, potentially it makes sense to scale primarily across Europe first. I think about something like Revolute, again, that fintech that I mentioned earlier. you know, they haven't really yet tackled the US in any meaningful way. And yet they've built an enormous business. And so I think because of maybe the banking sector, the regulations around that, and the opportunity that's unlocked again, from the fact that they kind of solved that complexity from day one, that was their hook.
35:54And so I think for them, the internationalization was more obvious into the European market. So we kind of see both, I think. And I think in terms of the europe european founders coming into the uk i think we gave the example earlier of the um you know nordic based founders they're going to tap out of domestic markets pretty quickly and so there's there's an obvious kind of internationalization choice sometimes that goes more into mainland europe to be clear that's not always to the uk sometimes just directly to the us so maybe sort of skips the us um but at least we at true like to position that we could be quite helpful partner in helping a nordic space business crack the uk market on their way to the us both kind of geographically but also culturally um there's a lot of similarities between the uk and the us and so they're getting it working proving the internationalization story in the uk to then raise the next round to really tackle the us is um is definitely a route that makes sense and i think you know there is a certain level of caution that has to be applied when you have a European company trying to crack the US, like they have to be well capitalized.
37:04It's very, very difficult to do it properly without having the funds to really go after it. And so that's certainly something that we would encourage our companies to obviously find test the market, test the waters as much as you can in a capital light way. But if you're going to go after the US, you kind of want the balance sheet to support that. No, that's very fair. It's very, very fair. I know that when we previously talked, we talked about how VC is a power law business. And obviously, you need to get into great companies. And those companies need to kind of have power law type dynamics in order for you all to be, for them to obviously be interested for true.
37:46Consumer is interesting because there's certainly a lot of polarizing thoughts in terms of is consumer venture backable? Is it not venture backable? not so much on the technology side, but more so on the consumer goods side, I'd say. I know that you're investors in consumer goods products. You're also investors, obviously, in consumer technology and retail tech and a lot of other things. How do you think about, because you're investing in a few different business models, some are inventory-based, right? Some of our pure SaaS businesses or pure software businesses. is how do you think about generating, you know, because ultimately you are a VC fund and you want to develop power law.
38:30How do you think about reconciling and managing these different types of business models and then evaluating to see if they can actually give you a power law return? I think as you said, I mean, I think we can put to bed the question of whether consumer can generate, regardless of the business model, can generate big outcomes because there's lots of examples you can point to across both physical products and technology where that's happened. Technology is probably obvious and top of mind for a lot of people. The consumer products side, probably a little bit less so, but maybe not for your audience.
39:02But you look at the kind of ollie pots and the roads and the on running from Switzerland. I mean, it's clear you can create billion dollar plus outcomes on consumer product based businesses. And I think the way that we approach it is because I think for a couple of different reasons, we have a very high bar when it comes to consumer products and we need there to be certain characteristics that we believe lead to a high likelihood of that real kind of power law outcome partly that's because we're investing very very early so we're investing at the sort of pre-seed and seed stage and I think there's a crop of the consumer products to the landscape where the fundamental differentiation if you if you dig under the skin is really about the brand and at that stage it's very very hard to objectively measure the brand strength and kind of prove that thesis out um and so i think there's a bit of a risk that it becomes a little bit more of a subjective judgment call based on how you know how i think the brand looks or feels or whatever and so i think that's quite hard to pick early i think it gets much easier when you're at maybe the series A or the series B stage where you've got a bit more proof around that brand you can understand the customer behavior the repeat the loyalty all of that sort of stuff to help you kind of build conviction that you're onto a winner but at the early stage it's tough and I think when you kind of combine that with quite a high loss ratio because they're early stage companies and the relatively capped upside multiple if you do get it right we found that the mass can be quite tricky to figure out the precedency stage on the consumer product side of things.
40:47As I mentioned, we still do them. I mean, we invest in them actively. But I think for us, we need to see something that's very tangible around the differentiation, whether that's unique IP or like a real category creation or a fundamentally different go-to-market edge for us to feel that that risk reward is kind of calibrated. As I mentioned, I think if we were investing a little bit later, we'd probably be a little bit more, our mix would be a little bit more on the consumer product side of things. But for the current strategy we're investing out of, that's why we tend to work more towards the technology driven opportunities.
41:24That makes sense. That makes sense. I mean, what sometimes I think can get lost in the consumer product side is certainly, as you mentioned, you can certainly get billion dollar, create billion dollar outcomes or, or billion dollar, um, or, or companies that are valued beyond, beyond billions. Um, I also, I remember had on, I forget which investor it was, but, um, talking about how you can still get a meaningful ROI from a company that's, you know, maybe at like that exits for 400 or 500 million, because maybe they've actually haven't raised a lot of capital too. And sometimes that gets lost a little bit when it comes to consumer products and that the outcome may not look as, I mean, still a$400,$500 million outcome is incredible, but it may not, it may still look like a quote unquote, like power law return or venture return.
42:16Maybe not quite the same way in terms of, of a technology business, just because those are, those can be, you know, just quite, quite different. Like, like, like maybe it's not like a hundred extra term, for example, but at the same time, because maybe there wasn't a lot of capital invested in the business, then you actually, from an investor perspective, you can still develop a great return for yourselves. I think that is definitely true. I think there's two embedded assumptions, though. I think one is that you can be, and the market can allow you to be, very disciplined on the entry price. So I think what we saw a lot in COVID years, right, in 2021, was things being valued as if they're software companies and they're not.
43:00And so there was a very high entry multiple. And then you're then fighting against kind of negative multiple arbitrage for a lot of the journey. And so I think you have to avoid that trap. I think the other thing is making sure that whilst they can be very capital efficient, you do also need to make sure that you've got good capital flexibility to deal with the swings of cash that can come from an inventory-based business. And so that's one of the things that I mentioned earlier, particularly if you're launching in the US, you want to make sure that you've got the balance sheet so that if you're a slightly missing plan or whatever, that's not going to catch you out from a working capital perspective.
43:36So they do need to raise enough to be able to absorb that shock. But absolutely, I agree. I think that you don't necessarily need it to be a billion dollar,$10 billion outcome to make great returns in consumer. This episode is brought to you by Glimpse. Glimpse is an AI powered end-to-end deductions management service that's focused on recovering revenue from KEHI, UNFI, Amazon and Target for consumer brands. They centralize deductions with backups. They fully handle disputing on your behalf, the brand's behalf, and streamline the accounting process. For more information, check out tryglimpse.com and let them know that Mike sent you.
44:14But what's interesting about the working capital side, I think, is now there's, I think, a lot of debt providers or debt services that have really come down market where you can actually have, you can actually get access to the debt markets, you know, quite earlier than you used to with some of the fintechs, for example, or other things, even though some of them haven't gotten great reviews for sure. But it's still a method that you could use that still means that you don't have to ultimately have the most expensive capital if your business is flourishing, which is obviously equity and using that equity.
44:56So I think that's actually interesting. And I totally agree about how consumer product companies were kind of valued as tech companies and really they just use technology as a distribution channel instead of it, but thinking that that was the actual product. But it's also interesting times because consumers kind of unsexy are out in terms of consumer products, valuations are down. So it also just could be an interesting time to actually invest in those areas from like that standpoint. Yeah, for sure. And again, I think that kind of, that pocket, like maybe slightly later, you've got a bit more data.
45:31Your multiples are starting to calibrate a little bit more towards reality and fundamentals. Like you can, there are, yeah, great. We've made great investments. There are lots of great investments that happen in the European ecosystem that are that profile. I think it's just maybe the earliest skew that makes it a little bit harder for us. I think on your, just on your point on the debt funding as well. I think that's probably another quite a big difference in the European ecosystem versus the US ecosystem. I think the US is probably more mature and more developed and that capital availability for consumer businesses is probably a bit stronger out there.
46:08So that's another thing that I think we need to figure out if we're building, you know, building massive consumer businesses out of Europe is how do you have non-equity capital to support these companies as they scale? How also do you think about, I know that, you know, maybe the mega trend across technology is obviously, you know, AI and LLMs. um how um what's your when you think about opportunities within consumer regarding you know ai and how ai might be you know um i know that you've i believe you mentioned before that ai is redefining the the consumer definition itself what is like ai mean to you in regards to um uh consumer what are some of the opportunities that you're seeing i think the it's important to say that not everything has to be AI, right?
47:01I think there's maybe a little bit of people forgetting that great businesses were built before ChatGPT came out and great businesses will be built after ChatGPT came out where the product is not AI. I think there's a separate point around, I think there's probably a reality that now that horse is bolted. AI will play a role in building and scaling companies of all sorts, consumer and B2B. So, you know, a consumer products company might not have the product as AI, but they're going to be using and deploying AI and helping them scale efficiently. I think what's captured the imagination on the actual kind of AI as a fundamental element of the product is that it kind of creates an opportunity where you can rethink almost everything at the same time.
47:47It's one of those shifts where, you know, from desktop to mobile or whatever, where there's fundamentally new capabilities that are being opened up that you can apply to consumer problems and consumer opportunities. And when we think about that, we kind of segment it into two. One is what existing kind of consumer markets and consumer experiences can be reimagined and fundamentally improved through an AI native approach. So we think about the fragmentation, for example, of online shopping, and you've got millions of tabs and open, and you're trying to compare manually and spending loads of time trying to find the right thing like that that in theory can go away with some of the sort of ai shopping assistants that we're seeing um that's a daydream or or others um the second category we quite like is like areas that are quite complex for consumers so things that are deeply research-based there's lots of comparison lots of consideration before the purchase which again takes a lot of time and effort from the consumer's perspective um so an example there is we've got a company in our portfolio called JITI, which is doing AI native property search.
48:55So it's re-imagining what it means to find your ideal property and then transact on that property using AI at the core. And then the last one is where we think that there's a sort of real need for personalization to the unit of one customer. Because I think historically personalization has meant roughly segmentation so we put you in a rough segment and we give that segment this rough product um because there was a minimum viable scale of the segment that you could serve with a custom product or a custom version of a product now with gen ai creating content you know for literally you as an individual you can in areas like consumer health and wellness for example you can get a fully personalized um one-to-one experience and there's going to be much better when you think about you know something like health and you've got maybe a certain symptom and a certain set of lifestyle factors and a certain set of genetics there's not a segment that's going to look exactly like you but all of a sudden if you are your own segment then then the experience is going to be much better so they're the kind of like the features of the existing markets that we quite like um i think almost more exciting in some ways is what new markets can be consumerized if you like that historically weren't available.
50:17Fundamentally, we think that one angle of that is how do you kind of alleviate supply side constraints for historically quite high cost to serve markets? So we think about things like therapy or tax advisory or private wealth management or legal services. You know, the kind of minimum viable scale of customer used to be so high that it wasn't really accessible to the broad base of the population. and so now by unlocking that supply side constraint using software you can open it up to the long tail of latent demand that wasn't big enough to serve as a as a person but is definitely big enough to serve as a as a piece of software um and then the other market and i think we're starting to see this already or we're definitely seeing this already is where you're materially lowering the barrier of entry to demand for that market so in that category we put things like vibe coding some of the creator tools like the sunos of the world and the european and the stand watch mozart and all of a sudden you've got a huge swade of customers that previously couldn't engage with that market because they lacked the tools the vocabulary the expertise and all of a sudden they can and i think that's really exciting because and i think that's where the blend of prosumer and consumer is starting to come in because these tools are they're so available and accessible now Whether you're a small independent creator or contractor or even just a hobbyist trying to hack together an app on the weekend, you can engage in that market in a way that you couldn't before.
51:43And those are really exciting. Where there's completely new market opportunities, completely greenfield, and we're seeing companies building really exciting products in that space. Now, I really appreciate you diving into all these different categories, different examples. Do you think that there's any consumer categories or innovation that's happening or needs to happen that might actually be more interesting, maybe just from a culture perspective, might be more interesting, for example, to Europeans, if we think about, you know, the EU, Switzerland and the UK, versus maybe the US consumer in terms of opportunities?
52:26That's a really interesting question. I think something I mean health healthcare is an obvious one where we have a very different set of yeah I guess like expectations and parameters around what good looks like from a healthcare perspective so in Europe a lot of the healthcare is publicly funded and so that creates challenges I think with educating the consumer from a willingness to pay perspective whereas I think because of the structure of the US market the self-pay market is a little bit more developed and so that's maybe an area where it's a little bit harder I think it's still possible, maybe a little bit harder in some ways to build a big business out of Europe.
53:05And I'm trying to think if there's other examples, but I think fundamentally consumers, you know, you go to the kind of seven deadly sins framework, whatever, like consumers are inherently quite similar and trying to solve inherently similar project problems, regardless of where they are in the world. And I think that's why, you know, one of the great things about consumer is that when you hit it, you can really hit it and you can hit it globally quite quickly. I mean, like Chatsup T is a great example, right? 800 million weekly users or whatever. And maybe there's kind of idiosyncrasies of how industries are structured or regulations are structured, which creates some complexity in that and differences in one market to another.
53:43But fundamentally, I think like wonderful experiences are going to scale across borders. No, that makes a lot of sense. It makes a lot of sense in terms of some of the differences when it comes to the, from the healthcare perspective. I mean, what's also really interesting is just companies. I remember talking to somebody about how companies that are focused on health tech, they go to market as not through kind of the traditional insurance companies and kind of the traditional healthcare networks here in the US, but rather much more direct to consumer and much more retail. which I also think is quite interesting just as something that's different.
54:32Yeah, for sure. And I think we've had good outcomes on the healthcare side, like Aura as a Finnish company, and is obviously now doing tremendously well. So they definitely can be built. I think it's just that sensitivity to the go-to-market and the customer growth model is maybe particularly cute in healthcare. When a founder pitches you, what are some of the signals that you look for? I think the most important one from my perspective is when you feel like the founder has intellectually interrogated an answer and an opportunity, an opportunity, sorry, for their own benefit. So they're trying to figure out, I'm a super high potential person.
55:11I'm really driven. I'm willing to put in everything to something over the next 10 years of my life, because I think it's an enormous opportunity. And then the pitch almost becomes like helping us understand why they've built so much conviction. And it creates a really different dynamic and conversation versus this sort of pedestal approach of I am pitching a VC and I need to sell to them and convince them on something that maybe I don't have the depth of conviction on um and so I always find that that unlocks a different level and higher quality conversation with the best founders um so we really like that and then I think beyond that is all of the things that lots of people talk about right we want people who are monarchically focused on the problem that they're trying to solve particularly at the early stage because i think if you have a really crisp idea of the problem and an understanding around the parameters of what might be able to solve that problem you can pivot and you can move around much more quickly than if you fixate on an idea and a solution and then if that ends up not working you're sort of starting from scratch so we we try and really understand where their motivation to why they think it's a big enough problem worth solving and that's going to lead to a venture scale outcome and what's their ultimate inherent motivation in going after that opportunity some of it's financial but a lot of the time it's actually it's actually not um so we spend a lot of time on those two things um yeah do you ever do you ever come across founders where you maybe love the founder you love what they're building but you actually just you can't make the investment because you're not convinced it's venture backable.
56:52It can't actually generate venture-like returns. All the time. That happens a lot. And I think there's one school of thought which says, you know, the best time is figured out and they'll pivot in and they'll find the market. And I think that while that may be true, I think you have to be really disciplined with that approach because there are a lot of exceptionally talented people. And you could just get into a situation where, And some people have this model, right? They're just backing talent. Yeah. And they kind of pivot their way into an opportunity versus someone who's very kind of clear about what they're building and maybe rigid about what they're building.
57:32So I think for us, though, again, if we go back to like, how do we use our unfair advantage with the set to specialist approach in the model? I think it is helpful to have clarity in terms of how that's going to show up for the founders. as much for them as it is for us, right? Like we want to be differentiated capital on their cap table. We want to be the first call, the most helpful call. And if you've got people just sort of playing around and it could end up being, you know, something completely left field, that's exciting, but I'm not sure there's necessarily a reason why I choose on that cap table versus someone else.
58:11Totally. um so because i've had i've had investors say at the precedency level we back the jockey not the horse what's your point of view on that um i think so much in venture is like the truth is somewhere in the middle i think people really like to take the extreme polarized opinion because it is a great soundbite on a clip on social media or whatever. I don't personally subscribe to the idea that you can go, you know, fully market and if the market's good enough and the trends are right, then you could put anyone in there and they'd build a big business. I don't think that's true at all. I similarly think, you know, I think it's very different asset class, obviously, but I always think about the Warren Buffett quote, you know, when a management with a good reputation meets a business with bad reputation, it's the business's reputation that remains intact.
59:05I think there's truth to that. I think there are some markets which are just very difficult to build venture scale outcomes in. So I think you need to have both. I think the good thing is at the pre-seed and the seed stage, you don't actually need a whole lot else. I think if you have really high quality, talented, motivated people in a really attractive market, it doesn't necessarily have to be an obviously massive market from day one, but a path to a venture scale outcome through a wedge that can then expand. Then a lot of the other stuff takes care of itself. But I do think you need to maintain the search for more than one thing at once, basically.
59:46Well, Joe, I guess you're not going to go viral with that response. I know. That wasn't polarizing. That wasn't polarizing. yeah yeah that's that's that's not true i did not i did not say that and i say that um uh are there any markets that apart that are within your your sphere meaning consumer and then also retail tech but there are any markets within that that you would actually stay away from um meaning maybe for example is too highly regulated um maybe you're not allowed to invest in them period like um you know like for example we've had some some investors that talk about how they can invest in vice categories for example um just just curious yeah we do we do have some restrictions in our in our lpas around you know vice categories i think the irony is that one of the biggest european startups globally is only fans um that's mainly in london so i'm not sure whether the lpas are getting scratched and replaced off the back of that.
1:00:49But yeah, I mean, we're also quite a sort of purpose-driven fund. We're a B Corp, which is an accreditation. I don't know how big it is in the US, but it's an accreditation of a sort of commitment to broader kind of purpose beyond profit. And so I think we'd find it hard to invest in a vice category that we felt was fundamentally damaging to the consumer. But aside from that, I think the consumer is one of those great categories where it's all kind of specialties, if you like, where it's specific enough to get the benefit of the kind of pattern recognition across different businesses, but it's broad enough that it covers like 60 % of the economy.
1:01:31So it's enormous. And so I think there's lots of pockets of consumer that could be billion dollar outcomes. And so we try to be quite open-minded and let the founders surprise us with their ideas. We're obviously trying to be thesis driven in certain areas and trying to ideate around specific markets. But at the same time, the best thing is the thing that's the least obvious. And they can turn out to surprise you. So I think the North Star is, can we help? Does it make sense for True to be on the cap table? Are we going to be different and differentiated to our founders? And if yes, we're pretty open-minded beyond that.
1:02:08Yeah. I was going to ask if you're a bit more top-down or bottom-up in terms of your investment strategy but i'd imagine the answer is it's a bit of both there we go truth is somewhere in the middle my final question to you joe if you don't mind is what's one book that's inspired you personally and one book that's inspired you professionally oh um it's jane chison's autobiography and so partly he made a british entrepreneur so amazing um heck yeah partly i think it's such a case study in the tenacity and obsession problem obsession that is required i I mean, it's literally like thousands of prototypes to get to the first vacuum cleaner that worked.
1:02:47And now he's, you know, one of the most successful British entrepreneurs of all time. So I think that's really inspiring for me personally. Inspiring for me professionally, I don't have a solid answer on that. I think not necessarily inspiring, but a really thought-provoking book that I recently read is a book called The Technology Trap. and it's all about how technology evolutions through history have been adopted or not adopted fundamentally as a function of how equitable the distribution of the proceeds of that technology diffusion is. And I think it's really timely when we think about not only just the opportunity side of AI permeating more aspects of our economy and our lives, but also like some of the watchouts and some of the things we need to be thoughtful around in terms of managing that transition for people in the right way.
1:03:41Because I think it's very easy to say, you know, the techno-optimistic side of people will find other jobs and productivity will grow. And I think that's all true in the long run. But there's a transitionary generation that I think we also need to be quite thoughtful on in the short run. So probably quite a boring answer, but it's definitely one that has made me pause for thought recently in terms of particularly how this sort of venture capital industry needs to be thinking about that stuff. No, I really appreciate it. I'll have to check out Technology Trap. And I will say just like that, you went from being another one that recommended Shoe Dog to two books that I don't think have been brought up on this show.
1:04:20So you went from being one of the others to very original, Joe. Thank you. Joe, thanks so much for your time. This has been so much fun. I really appreciate you spending your Friday night with me. No, I've really enjoyed it. Thanks very much for having me, Mike. Appreciate it. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
1:04:40And there you have it. It was a pleasure having Joe on the show. Joe, thanks again so much for sharing your story and sharing more information about True and some of the differences between Europe and the US when it comes to venture. Thanks again as well to Glimpse for sponsoring this episode. Glimpse is an AI-powered end-to-end deduction management service that's focused on recovering revenue from Kehi, UNFI, Amazon, and Target. So if you're a consumer brand and you're in Kehi, UNFI, Amazon, and Target, talk to Glimpse. Go to tryglimpse.com for more information. Thanks for listening. I hope this was great.
From the publisher
Glimpse is the all-in-one, AI-powered deductions management platform for CPG brands—automating deduction capture, classification, disputes, and accounting. Recover more revenue while saving time – https://www.tryglimpse.com
What happens when a venture investor builds inside one of the world’s most consumer-obsessed ecosystems?
In this episode, Mike sits down with Joe Seager, Partner at True, a multi-stage investment and advisory platform that’s redefining what a consumer-specialist VC can be.
Before True, Joe spent five years working alongside Sir Richard Branson at Virgin, helping launch ventures across autonomous vehicles, fintech, and digital banking—giving him a front-row seat to innovation at global scale.
Joe shares what he learned from working inside Virgin’s founder-driven culture, what makes True’s vertically integrated model so unique, and how he’s seeing consumer venture evolve across Europe.
You’ll learn:
✅ What it was really like working with Richard Branson
✅ How True’s “multi-stage” structure gives founders an unfair advantage
✅ Why Europe’s venture landscape is so fragmented—and where it’s winning
✅ How Brexit changed the flow of capital, LPs, and cross-border investing
✅ What consumer categories are still venture-backable (and which aren’t)
✅ The truth about power-law outcomes in consumer investing
✅ Why AI will reshape—not replace—the future of consumer brands
✅ The founder traits Joe looks for when writing a first check
👉 If you’re a founder, operator, or investor curious about the intersection of consumer, venture, and Europe’s next wave of innovation, this episode is packed with insight from one of the most thoughtful voices in VC.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:40 What It Was Like Working With Richard Branson
03:00 The Moment Joe Fell in Love With Venture
05:00 Why He Joined True & What Makes It Different
07:00 Inside True’s Multi-Stage Model (VC + PE + Public + Advisory)
09:00 How the Ecosystem Helps Founders Win
12:00 Leveraging True’s Corporate Network for Startups
15:00 True’s Split: B2B vs. B2C Investments
16:00 How Europe’s Venture Scene Differs From the U.S.
18:00 The Rise of Sweden, Estonia & the Nordics
22:00 How Brexit Reshaped Capital Flows in Venture
26:00 LP Structures: Why Europe Lags Behind the U.S.
28:00 The Need to Unlock Pension Capital in the UK
31:00 How Brexit Changed Startup Global Expansion
35:00 Is Consumer Still Venture-Backable?
38:00 Building Venture-Scale Consumer Brands
41:00 Why Now Might Be the Best Time to Invest in Consumer
43:00 How True Thinks About AI in Consumer
47:00 New Consumer Categories AI Is Unlocking
49:00 How Europe Differs Culturally From the U.S.
51:00 What Joe Looks for in Founders
54:00 The “Jockey vs. Horse” Debate in Early Stage VC
57:00 Why True Avoids Vice Categories
59:00 Book Picks: James Dyson Autobiography & The Technology Trap
📬 Subscribe for more founder stories & venture insights: 👉 The Consumer VC Newsletter - https://www.theconsumervc.com/
Follow Mike Gelb: Twitter / IG / TikTok → @mikegelb / @consumervc
