2025 Tech Predictions – DTNS 4926 Rerun

0:00Last year, our DTNS panel gave their predictions on what 2025 would bring to the tech landscape. Now, we are going to check in on those in the predictions results show next Tuesday. But in preparation for that, we are replaying last year's predictions episode so that you'll be ready to hear our 2025 predictions results show on Tuesday. Enjoy. Coming up on DTNS, spoiler alert, we reveal everything that is going to happen in tech in the year 2025.

0:34This is the Daily Tech News for Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 in Los Angeles. I'm Tom Merritt. From Columbus, Ohio, I'm Rob Dunnwood. From deep in the heart of Texas, I'm Justin Robert Young. And from San Diego, I'm David Spark. Or am I not supposed to say that? I'm sorry. Well, you said it now. Go, Roger, go. Go, Roger. And I'm Roger Chang, the show's producer. And we are here to do our 2025 predictions. Thank you all for assembling yourselves today. It's awesome to have you. It's good to be here. Yeah, yeah. As always, we are going to make our predictions. Each of us have two for what we think is going to happen in technology in 2025.

1:18And then we will check back in a year to see how we did. But this year, we have two new elements. points one is that the other panelists are going to come up with a difficulty rating for each prediction so for example uh if i were to predict that apple's going to release a new iphone next year i would be probably get a 0.1 rating like that's worth 0.1 of a point because we know they're going to do that but if i predict artificial generalized intelligence will arise january 2nd uh then maybe i get a 10 multiplier because that that's a very short time frame it's a very bold prediction. Additionally, additionally, each of you have a credit to glom onto one other panelist predictions.

2:03Just one time you can say, you know what, I'm going to use my credit. I want to get credit for that person's prediction if it comes true as well in the next year. Does that all make sense? Everybody clear on those? Yeah, it makes sense to me. I'm clear. Yeah. Justin, you good? Let's go. All right. Now, Sarah Lane had a little vet thing she had to get to, but she was able to make her predictions and leave them for us. So let's start with the first of Sarah Lane's predictions. All right. For my predictions for 2025, my first prediction is Apple will release a much cheaper Apple Vision Pro to better compete with the meta quest and whatever else might come around in 2025, but specifically the quests.

2:50The quest is 300 bucks. The vision pro is more like$3 ,000. So, you know, let's, let's get real people. Maybe, maybe could be called the Apple vision S E otherwise special edition, much like Apple's lower cost iPhones in certain markets that have done quite well. Developers will still have the original Vision Pro to use as a playground and Apple will continue with Vision OS development overall. All right. So before anyone says, Sarah, you're crazy. I do think that Apple, first of all, Apple is not really in the business of saying, eh, when you're in, you're right. That sucked. We're just going to scrap the whole deal.

3:34No. I think that Apple has a multi-year roadmap for this. And the fact that the Vision Pro is simply too expensive. And I mean, even with people who have disposable income, it's not so much cost prohibitive, but just what is it for? It replicates my desk environment. A lot of folks are used to having tactile stuff that you hold in your hand rather than it all being gesture-based and eye-track focused. So that's my prediction. My prediction is the Vision Pro not dead yet and we'll see more life with a lower cost model and a lot more development for Vision OS. okay fairly safe but a good prediction safe prediction yeah i'm thinking i'm leaning towards the closer to the point one there's there's been a uh there's been a lot of rumors that that the uh that the only vision pro that would come out this year would be the cheaper one that they that they were going to do two at one point but they've scaled back and they're not going to do the more expensive one now i mean i guess the only question that i would have there is that is it at a quest competitive price point because coming down from 3 ,000 to 1 ,000 is more realistic to me.

5:02I don't know if... I don't think it's... I think you're right, Justin. It's going to come down from 3 ,000 but not to meta-level quest competitive. The German verse says it'll be 2 ,000. So yeah, if we're to come down to quest levels, that would be... I think we're kind of all in agreement on this one. I feel like we just give her a solid one. Like it's one point. She gets it right. Her intuition was that it's going to be sub 1000. If it's sub 1000, that's going on the sub 1000 side. Sub 1000 is okay. Then if she's saying that's a pretty strong prediction, I think. All right. All right. So I think there's no way it's going to be sub 1000.

5:41We'll note that it's not just a cheaper one, but sub 1000. And then what? Two, two points for that multiply. Yeah. Yeah. I would, I would know. I mean, I would be shocked if they come out with one sub 1000. Yeah, yeah. Apple nearly makes phones in watches that cost less than$1 ,000. I don't know about an eight. Justin's going eight. Five? I'm going to go four. It's believable, but highly unlikely. Rob, what are we going to say? So I'm saying four. I'll give it a five. Let's go five. I'll give it a solid five. Right in between David and Justin. If it's under a grand, I mean, that is pretty radical for Apple.

6:18They don't generally make inexpensive stuff. If it comes in for under a grand, I will buy a$3 ,000 Apple Vision Pro and eat it. Oh, my God. All right. It's in the prediction show now. A year from now, you'll be dining. By the way, that is the episode I want to watch. Yeah. Tune in next year and find out. All right. Let's move on to Sarah's second prediction. Take it away. For my second prediction of 2025, I predict that Waymo, my robotaxi of choice, Zooks, which Amazon now owns, Tesla, and Uber, who are all in the business of trying to make this happen, will continue to expand service areas for robo-taxis due to positive feedback from riders.

7:01Now, that alone, you might say, I mean, aren't they just going to do that? I mean, is that really a prediction? But I think by the end of 2025, as a person who sometimes has to take an Uber to the airport, for example, or I don't know, my car's in the shop type of thing. I think we're all going to feel like human drivers are taking you somewhere, but kind of waning as an option. Now I know this is a little ambitious. This is a little ambitious. I'm looking from 2024 to the end of 2025. But I also feel like at the end of 2023, I knew what Waymo was. I had never ridden in a robotaxi, I was just sort of like, eh, whatever.

7:45It's something they're doing in San Francisco or Phoenix. And now it is my absolute preferred method of transportation. I know I'm in an area where I have the luxury to have that option. And a lot of people don't. I think it's going to be a very, very different landscape one year from now. All right. So I guess it's a little hard to measure whether this one is correct or not. But the general idea is by the end of 25, we'll be like, yeah, I prefer not to have a human drive my car if I'm taking a cab or a ride share anymore. I feel like these are very L.A. problems. I live in a place with multiple Waymos that just can't come to my neighborhood, and I have yet to take a drive to this car.

8:39A Waymo doesn't deliver faster, better service than a human-driven car, does it? Arguably, no. Depends on whether or not the human makes a wrong turn. Yeah. But generally speaking, there's not an advantage in speed. There's an advantage in safety. You're safer in the Waymo than you would be in a human-driven car. Depending on how the human is operating. Right. But overall, I'm going on that insurance study where there were 96 % fewer incidents with Waymo. Yeah. It ensures baseline human performance. I think that even if this were to turn out to be true, it affects so few people on the grand scheme of things that I still don't know that we would know.

9:31Because you can be in Southern California or somewhere and you can take a Waymo at your leisure. If you're in the Midwest, we're probably still years away from that. I'll jump on the train. I'm in Los Angeles and I've never driven in a Waymo because it doesn't come to my neighborhood. It's only in Sarah's name. I've never even seen one in the wild because they don't exist here. So I think that's definitely going to go up because the need for these vehicles or any vehicle is up. It's just more if they're going to get more inventory onto the streets is key. Is that going to happen? And, you know, I think the measurement will be like the stats of does it go up 50 percent, 100 percent?

10:12I don't know. How do we measure the success of something like that? I mean, I think it's a point one that it's going to go up. Yes. Point one, it goes up. The question is, what are we measuring success by? Yeah. Well, she's saying having a human driver take you will be waning as if, you know, like, oh, I guess I can still get a human driven car. I would give a higher multiplier if we're all in agreement that that's the case in a year from now. If she thinks in just one year, people's attitudes toward human drivers is going to drastically change. That I think is going to take many years. I think that's going to happen, but it's going to take many years.

10:50Yeah, I agree. It's going to take a long time just because we're only talking about very, very, very large cities where these things are even a possibility. And as you're saying, Tom, you live in one of those large cities and it's not even a possibility for you. So I think we're still a ways off from people thinking this as from a mindshare perspective. I think that we're, we're still years off from that just because it's, it's not, it doesn't come to the top of my mind because it, even if it did, what can I do about it? Absolutely nothing. I cannot rent one of these things. It's also not going to be on the basis of whether or not a human is driving it.

11:25It's going to be a basis of whether or not it's cheaper. If I can consistently get from here to there cheaper in a Waymo, then I'm going to be like gross humans. But if it's the same price that, or more expensive, then I'll be like, Hey, Doug, pick me up but i will also say the thing that you're missing out on the waymo is the conversation with your driver people enjoy that it's i can say how long you've been driving to air it's fine yeah you can call someone on no i'm just gonna i'm just gonna do it to advanced voice mode on chat tpt i'll just ask it how long you've been driving we're giving this one five points too is what i'm hearing any objections yeah no all right five points for for the prediction of it's gonna If it's right, if it's Wayne.

12:05Yeah, yeah, exactly. Yeah, that I would agree. That's the prediction. Let's go to Rob. What is your first prediction for 2025? My first prediction, and if it's true, people aren't going to like it, but we will see a massive, I mean, a massive return to work initiative. Pretty much starting in January. It doesn't matter if your corporation is big or small. It doesn't matter what, you know, what type of surveys were done. Are you more productive when you work remote? Are you more productive when you're in the office? It doesn't matter because hiring managers and people who manage people believe that you're more productive when you're in the office.

12:43And I think that 2025 is going to be the year of these companies are not going to continue to take these L's on all this rent that they are locked into paying all these. You know, if they have offices, I think that you're going to see people back in them in a massive way. Now, I don't believe that we will go back to where it's just everybody is in the office, you know, working, you know, 40, 45 hours every single week. I don't think it'll be that. I think it'll still be a hybrid, but it won't be the hybrid that we see now to where you're in maybe three times a month. I think it'll be you are expected to be in the office at least 30 hours per week every single week.

13:19And I think that once Amazon puts this in place, every other company comes in with Amazon's doing it, we're doing it. I see where you're going. And so I think it's just going to be a tidal wave of millennials and young millennials and older Gen Z folks is just very upset because they now have to do something that they are not accustomed to doing. And that's getting in a car, getting in a cab or getting on a train or whatever the transportation mode is to get to an office and be there all day and then come back home. You're going to make Waymo more popular. Okay, so I'm going to say this, Rob. I love your prediction.

13:56I want it to be true. I don't believe it's going to be true, though. I so want your prediction to be true for two reasons. One, I think about the fact that if I was in my early 20s right out of college, and I'm sure plenty of people listen to this, if they're at this age group, working at home, you do not get the experience of the social experience of work. And that was critical to me right out of college in my early 20s. Now I could care less. I'm all thrilled about working from home. but um it stinks flat out stinks to be in your early 20s and working from home uh so i would love that to be true and the addition it's critical for everyone of all ages to be there because the people in their early 20s need the older people who are more experienced to learn from them to be their mentors of it so i want your prediction to be true but i disagree i don't think It's going to be true.

14:47Not only is it true, it's Rob, come on. It's it's not bold enough. Like, of course, it's happening. It's already in. It's already in the ether. Like you mentioned, Amazon's already done it. And by the way, to dip into my other profession, there's going to be another gigantic organization that's going to mandate return to work in January. And that's the federal government, federal government. You know, so, yeah, this is 100 percent happening. It is going to be a pendulum swinging back to where it used to be. Now, I do think that you will see more carve-outs. There will be more people for whom are at a certain level of seniority or productivity.

15:25They're going to be able to negotiate things in a different way. But it's going to be more on the level of, no, you have to earn or have a special reason for working from home as opposed to it being a blanket thing. I agree with you. so like like i said i think that it's it is it is all but done like i said i i feel for i feel for the young folks that have not come up to where you had to go in for 40 hours a week but it's better for you it's right it's better for you how do you measure whether your your prediction is right or not rob what what what's your what's your condition i would imagine on this one as as justin said that my my multiplier is going to be low because i just i think this is almost a uncertainty that it's going to happen.

16:09So how do we tell if you're right? Is it like, oh, we had so many headlines. Is it a certain percentage of companies or, you know, what are we looking at? Oh, yeah. You'll see headlines. It will be a we will talk less about AI maybe once or twice a week less because we'll be talking about, oh, this company is going back to work. Oh, this company is going back to work. I mean, you're going to see. I think it's going to be relatively quick. I think most of this is probably going to happen in the first half of the year because it's not going to be you have to be back in the office in January. It's going to be that they're going to start putting these plans in place and saying, yeah, we're going to institute this in our fiscal Q3.

16:45So it might be, you know, the summertime when when it actually goes into effect for the companies that haven't already started working on it. But I think it I think we are certain that downtowns will not be empty ghost lands any longer. That that is going to change. I was going to say this, David. What I was going to say is this is like the airlines. One airline says you've got to pay for your luggage, and then all of them do it. What were you going to say, Justin? I will say this. Somebody for whom I'm related to by marriage who's been out of work for nearly a year, we turned down a job because of a mandate that she be in the office.

17:22That's the thing. Because it would have required us moving. Yeah. So what multiplier are we giving Rob on this? Two. David, what do you say? I think it's higher because as much as I want Rob to be right, I don't think it's going to happen. I don't think it's going to happen. You don't think the companies are going to say it? The companies are going to do it? How high? How high? I'm going to say a four on this one. All right. We'll give it a three then. I'll take it because I thought I was going to get a lower multiplier than that. I thought this was like – I will bet against based on what Rob said that we're going to talk less about AI just looking at the rundown.

18:00Oh, not much less. I'm just saying that it's like, we'll talk about this so much that just the sheer number of stories that we talk about, we, you know, AI can't be everything. So we'll talk about this once or twice a week. So what's your second prediction about AI? My second prediction, and this is one that, you know, I've just, I've just come to this actually today when I sent this, this email over. I don't think Apple intelligence is going to be a thing. I think it's going to flop much like the metaverse did. And my reason, my rationale for this is that when I look at what OpenAI is doing and Microsoft is doing and Google is doing, these are big companies that are all in on AI.

18:42And Apple really isn't. Apple is all in on AI for iPhone users. And I just don't know with the speed at which things are happening in the space that they can actually make a dent when they're only trying to do these these carve outs just for their ecosystem. as compared to when you have to compare it to what is Gemini doing? What is OpenAI doing? What is Microsoft doing? These are Anthropic and every other company that is looking at AI to try to change the world. Apple really isn't. They're just trying to change iPhone usage. And I don't know that they're going to be, that it's going to be good enough, fast enough for it to actually be a thing.

19:23So I kind of wonder and I kind of believe that AI on the iPhone will kind of just fade out and you'll be using Anthropic, you'll be using ChatGBT, you'll be using other stuff, but it won't necessarily be because it's pushed by Apple. It's just this is just an app that is on your device. So this is where I think you may fail on this one, Rob, is because Apple already has the install base of all the users already. they can just push whatever app they damn please onto people's phones and it's going to be front and center so i i think failure is something they can avoid they know how much money is involved here so even if they quote fail they they won't let that happen like it'll still be pushed um so failure to me is like it'll look like siri as compared to every other uh assistant out there siri siri exists and every iphone user has it but nobody's really saying oh siri is just so great is it's just awesome that's really not a thing i think that their version of apple intelligence will kind of be it'll just be the next version of siri it's like yeah it's on here well that's but that's what that's what it is though and that's what they've said it is here's the reason why you're here's the reason why it's not going to flop as you said like the metaverse did the metaverse flopped for two reasons equipment and utility number one not everybody had a vr headset and or wanted to spend a lot of time in it when they had there because the utility really wasn't there.

20:51What am I going to do? I'm going to fly around to a land where I own fake, a fake farm next to an avatar of Snoop Dogg. Who cares? Who cares, right? Apple intelligence is booty now. However, it is only underwhelming for a reason that Apple could fix tomorrow. And that is hooking into what you have the most. And right now, nobody can compete with, which is all my contacts, my calendar, my ability to have everything that just the access to all that info, all my photos, right? So for example, when OpenAI did their 12 days of shit miss and they did their Apple intelligence day, they had all these demos that were just one step away from being interesting.

21:42It was use chat GPT to organize a holiday party. And I'm like, oh my God, that's amazing. It knows my contacts. It knows who lives in the same town that I am. It can suggest a bunch of guests. It can automatically build a group chat. No, it can just give you an itinerary based on chat GPT. Okay. So if they turn that on, that'd be really good. Then it was like, oh, build a holiday playlist. I'm like, that's amazing. I have Apple music. It could build a playlist. I would love to do AI built playlists where I I can just talk to Chad GPT and then all of a sudden I just have this playlist ready to go.

22:15No, they can just list a bunch of songs that you can manually put into with my dumb fingers. This is one Apple lever push away from being so much more valuable, not because the tech is better. You're right there. They will always be outclassed with other companies doing that, but they don't need to be the leader. They can plug anybody else's LLM into what they own the most, the install base. So it seems like the panel is leaning against this one a little bit. Yes. I will say that it'll flop like the metaverse. I will say that's a seven. First of all, the metaverse never existed, whereas Apple Intelligence actually does.

23:02But the bottom line, there was no demand for it at all. There wasn't a product. We need this. Yeah, yeah. Nobody's asking for it. So two multiplier here or three? Well, no, because that would assume that it's going to happen. No, no. The multiplier is if he gets it right, he gets more points because it's a less likely. I don't think it's going to flop at that level. No, I think he should get more points if it happens. I get more points because no one thinks it's actually going to flop like I do. I'd say it's eight. Eight. This was my, yeah, I want to go out in left field and pull something. And but but I actually kind of believe it still.

23:40I just I just don't think I think there's some truth to it. But to the level of the metaverse, like that's that's the big call right there. It's the metaverse was a flop. Let's give it eight. All right. All right, folks, if you have a prediction, why don't you tell us in our discord? You can join that by linking a Patreon account at Patreon dot com slash DTNS.

24:05All right. We are back with David Spark now. to tell us what is going to happen in technology in 2025. What's your first prediction, David? All right, here's my first prediction. And this is key that it's a very high profile social engineering with AI generated voice and or video. So we are, honestly, I've been just simply waiting for this to happen. I'm like, when is this going to happen? It's going to happen. So its idea is some high level CEO, a huge political leader, or something's going and it's going to cause some massive news event. and it's going to cause some major disruption in the markets, in economy, in what could be military.

24:47It's going to be something huge, and it's going to look as realistic as possible. And it doesn't need to permanently fool everyone, but just for a certain period of time. So that causes a massive disruption. And my feeling since I've seen these incredibly well-done video and voice AI, I'm just like, it's got to happen. I just don't know when, but it's got to happen. And my feeling is this is a year, or 2025 is a year. So this is going to be a headline grabbing. Everyone's falling for this AI-generated voice and video. Well, it doesn't have to be everybody. It just has to be some significant part.

25:23But the key is it's going to be some massive disruption. My feeling it will be a massive disruption to some world market. It'll be huge. Voice and video. See, when you talk voice and video. It can be voice and or video. I can see. I can see. Video, I'm not sure about yet. I don't know. Because this tends to be the thing that we think of. And this might be a boiling frog thing where I don't realize that it is at a certain temperature yet. But it does seem to be. We very much thought this year that was going to be the thing, right? We had all these elections happening in multiple different GA countries.

25:59And at the end of it, we were like, I don't know. I could have stood for more silly AI videos. It was kind of funny when we saw one of Trump and Conrad's kids. I'm thinking along the lines of like a phishing scam where people get called and the AI voice works really well. Well, there was that one case where there was a$2 million transfer. Yeah, but we haven't had a big headline about an AI-generated voice scam stealing hundreds of thousands of dollars from thousands of people. What was it, the Chinese hack where they did the Zoom call, which it was like a glitchy video. It happened one time to one group.

26:31Right, but that was one company. Yeah, but that's not a market disruptor. This would be a market disruptor. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Rob, what do you think? I think it can happen because when we say video, we're all thinking that it's going to be as high fidelity and clear as we are looking at each other right now. I think what could happen is it could almost be like a hidden camera type of thing to where you have a fake. You have a deep fake of someone doing something and is being caught on a on someone's cell phone. And we know that everyone when you catch anything good on the cell phone, it's always got Vaseline on the screen.

27:04You can never actually really see what was happening. So it'll be plausible enough because the voice is there. The voice is here. You can make anybody sound like anybody today. So so that part is easy. But I think it can happen. And here's the other part of this. When we think about AI, we've basically been talking about this for like two years in a month. 2025 is a long time. That's a whole year. So that gives us literally to this time next year for something to happen. How much better is it going to be in three months, in six months, in nine months, in a year? I think that it's not going to be a lack for trying.

27:43Let me just say it that way. I think people are absolutely going to try to see if they can pull something off that'll just move the market or something like that a percentage point because you could make literally millions in minutes if you can do that, even if you go and find out that, oh, this was fake. You can also do that cheaper now. You can hack Elon Musk and say, that's it. I'm resigning and short Tesla and make money. Like I guess – But no one's done it. Well, that's the one thing. Well, no. People have hacked them and tried to do other stuff. It's just been dumber plans. No one's been successful.

28:19Yeah, yeah. Yeah, no. But they put their weird Bitcoin wallet and stuff like out there. They just didn't have the sense to short it. Like yes, the tools are there and I agree with you guys that the tools are getting high fidelity. But what we tend to forget is that we also adjust our culture for that. And so, oh, sure. But one of the ways we adjust the culture is a temporary splash happens like this. Like, it doesn't have to be long lasting chaos or damage. But like, yeah, I guess I don't know. Depending on where we put the exact window on this. I don't know. I bet against it still. Yeah, I don't think that we're long from it.

28:59I think that we're going to have a lot of people are going to be quoting Richard Pryor. Who do you believe me or your lion eyes? I think that we're not far from that. uh i'm i'm thinking this is more like a one or two but it sounds like rob and justin if we want to pull that up no it's just so nebulous that i don't know exactly like there's just so many ways that we could say i'm just saying it but it the the the rate the the essentially barometer is it's some uh high profile social engineering with ai generating voice and video and it causes some kind of major disruption militarily or market disruption no i i i know i'm just saying that you could describe a lot of things with that what what numbers but it's gonna be world market not just an individual not like one company getting screwed but literally market like a crowd strike thing right where it goes on you know it's it's got massive repercussions but eventually it gets resolved rob what one number multiplier um i'll i'll give it a i'll give it a three three All right.

30:04Justin, you good with three? Yeah. Let's call it a three. I'm good with three, too, because I think this is definitely going to happen. All right. What's your next one? All right. This one is actually an anti-AI prediction. And it is a complete backlash against, and this is key, audio-only AI. Now, we have all heard audio-only AI. Like, all of us could be AI-generated, and none of us could even be able to tell the difference between our own voices. that's how damn good it is but when the listener knows and this is this is key when the listener knows that what they're listening to is not actually human but ai generated outside of just novelty there will be no success for ai only content i i really want to say because i think it has a little bit of uncanny valley attached to it of the people get very ennerved knowing that they're only listening to AI only content.

31:05Now, the only thing I would exclude is like, like an audio book written, you know, read because it is written by a human. And it's just the the the AI is just reading it out loud. But I don't think there will be like any successful AI podcasts at all. It will be a giant zero where people were rejected entirely created by the by the algorithm. The creative and the voice. Other than the prompt, the prompt is human, but the output is all model. I mean, having been accused of sounding like Notebook LM this past year, I almost feel like giving you a half point. Like, yeah, I think that'll happen. I think it's already.

31:43There will not be a single case of one successful AI-generated 100 % podcast. Not one. I would give you the caveat. There will be some because the bit is that it's AI-generated, and that's the thing. but every show can't be that. I mean, some people are going to try to actually use this to be a real thing, and I would agree with you wholeheartedly. I have no interest at all in listening to someone that is not real. I will say this, though. I think that if you actually had AI-generated output that was read by a human, people probably would pay attention to that. Yeah, that'll happen. It's written by ChatGPT, but a human actually reads it?

32:23That's different. That's not an AI-generated voice. Well, yeah. So I generally agree with your premise, David, in that there is a phenomenon that happens with all of us that our friend Brian Brushwood described that when he was coming up in the entertainment industry, he learned Premiere and he found that there were these plugins that made video look cool. And at that point, every time he saw one of those plugins used in professional capacities, he would think that they look cheap and terrible, right? Not because they were good or bad. It was because he knew how to do it. And so now it was less valuable than if he did not know how to do it.

33:03That is the thing with AI is that everybody can prompt, which means now everybody will discount something that looks totally created by that. And I agree. But I think more of the problem is the uncanny valley feeling. It just, it nerves us knowing that it's not a human. Roll that in there too. Roll that in there too. That being said, I could very much see AI generated content being valuable and popular if it takes advantage of the things that AI can do that humans cannot, which is speed, speed and generation. So will somebody be happy to listen to a version of my podcast where I, it is released everything that I do, but it's in Spanish or Portuguese.

33:49Yes, they might, even though they would know. That's content created by you. David did specify the content is also created by the model. Sure. Yeah. So it's like the notebook LM thing. I listened to it, but I couldn't stomach more than 60 seconds of it. It was more like, wow, that's amazing. And I've heard enough. Understood. Understood. I agree. is this one point it's just just a solid one point yeah i just think it's one because i think right david is yeah okay so but i just want to throw it the barometer is not a single successful podcast at all that is 100 100 yeah yeah yeah other than the prompt of course right all right justin robert young i assume you'll have no predictions about ai what's your first one it's about ai god damn it i already lost my first prediction of the year you did uh i believe that a company and i would assume it's going to be open ai for a few different reasons are going to announce agi artificial general intelligence in the year of our lord 2025 so when you say that will they say this is it uh we it is it is out of the box it it can think on its own or will it be kind of hedged it's artificial generalized intelligence by a definition well no matter what it'll have to be by some definition to say that it is it is agi i i don't think that they're going to treat it like frankenstein and say like behold agi uh the The reason why I would say this, and I'm going to say it with pretty high certainty, is because, number one, we saw what they demoed today.

35:42Sorry, a few weeks ago. And that was 03, which according to the nonprofit that is tracking AGI, it is 87 % there. And that is still on GPT-4, not GPT-5, which we assume will probably bow at some point next year. If that is at that trajectory and they are continuing to hone it to hit those evals at those levels, then I would assume that we're probably going to get there. But then there's also the corporate element of this. And you hear these reports that OpenAI's relationship with Microsoft materially changes once they hit AGI, which means there is a tremendous financial incentive for OpenAI to hit evaluations from a third party perspective for which could be called AGI.

36:38So number one, I think the tech is there. Number two, I think that the business reason is there. And we've seen early versions of like AI employees. I think next year is going to be the first year where AI is just electricity. It's just the internet. You know, we're not going to be talking about whether or not it's good or it's bad. It's going to be about its applications and AGI is going to be a huge part of that. The reason I asked you is not so much that I was worried about Frankenstein, but I imagine that they will announce it and it will not be accepted by everyone. There will be endless debates about whether it actually counts as AGI.

37:21And that doesn't invalidate your prediction. No. Your prediction is that they are going to come out and say, we think this is AGI. We have these other independent folks who think that it's AGI. Or ARC is going to say it. Yeah. So we're comfortable that if ARC says it's AGI, then it's AGI. And then there's going to be a big debate about whether it is or not. But when you put it that way, I feel like that there's a decent bet on that because of the business pressures particularly. Yeah. I mean, because that would be the other reason to do it is that all of a sudden they become a far more valuable company if everything they do.

37:57And Microsoft is going to argue that it's not AGI. Oh, boy, will they? Well, apparently it's an independent panel. That's part of their agreement. So that will be quite, quite a debate. There will be many, many people and billions of dollars outside the door of whatever that panel is and possibly inside of it to decide whether or not whatever open AI has is AGI. But I will say that it should not be lost on anybody that during their 12th day of shipmas, they explained that they were 87 percent of the way there. Yeah. Ahead of humans, actually, on the same day. I think you might be on to something with this one because they're close.

38:39I mean, you know, OpenAI is changing their business structure, and this is one of the reasons why they're changing, because it's like, okay, wait a minute, we can't give this to Microsoft the way we're structured now. But they gave us$13 billion for the stuff that we already have. How much will they give us for this when we actually tell them we have a thinking machine? Yeah, I think it will be announced. As Tom said, I don't think that it's going to be generally accepted in 2025, but I do believe that it will absolutely be announced sometime in the next calendar year. And it won't be available either.

39:14That's the other thing. They're not going to be available. It'll be available. You think so? You think they'll let public, general public have it? I think there's a good chance. Yeah. I think 03 is going to be available probably within. I'm just going on the fact that they never make everything available to everybody when they when they announce it. Oh, one. I mean, again, so let's assume that everything that they've said is true and that O3 is where it's at. And so as you pointed out, on those ARC evals, O3 low is above the Mendoza line of human competency in terms of reasoning. So like that is – that apparently is going to be available to at least plus and pro subscribers within the first few months of next year if that's the case.

40:03And again, a lot of this is contingent on how close we are to the – how low that theme is playing for GPT-5, which they have apparently been on the works on for a long time. if that drops next year, then I think that's that. I'm spending my credit. I want to jump on this one, no matter how many points we give it. Oh, I forgot about the whole credit thing. This is one I will definitely give some points to, because I think you're right on on this one, Justin. Are we doing a one point or a two point? Multiply. Wait, come on. I don't get more than that. The higher the multiplier. Sam Alman almost got run out of his business a year ago because of the concept of this happening.

40:50It was so dangerous. I get two points for saying that Skynet's real? I mean, things have changed. Well, you did say when you did say a fireball. Judgment Day by 4th of July. Whatever. Two points. Roll the dice. No, no, no. First of all, I don't think it's a one-pointer. I think it's much higher because I don't think this is so easily going to happen. So how many multipliers would you give it? I would say like four or five here because I think, you know, we're not that close to that. I think it's going to happen. I don't think it's going to be in 2025, though. I think it may be 2026 or 2027, just not 2025.

41:33Are you cool with four points? I think we are very, very close. I do think we're – Four-point multiplier? Let's go. I'll take it. Settle. Rob, you good with that? I'm good with it. That's a little high because I think it's going to happen, but we'll go four. And then I'll play my credit. I would like four times the points when that happens. I'm playing both my credits on my own prediction. On your own prediction so you get three times. I want to wait until the end. You only have one credit. But I want to wait until the end so I know where to put my credit. All right. I'm not even waiting. I'm just playing mine.

42:05All right. What's your second prediction, Justin? I believe that a major cable news network will be sold and turned into an exclusive tile on a streaming service.

42:23So when you say the tile, the way like Hulu has a tile on Disney Plus. Gotcha. Yes. So the idea is like MSNBC gets sold and the only way you can listen to MSNBC is you got to have Disney Plus. peacock or disney or whatever the heck it is yeah or peacock obviously that would be the opposite well that would not be it being sold but yeah i must spinco sells it back spinco can sell it mostly no you want to know what i'll make it more specific cnn's getting sold and it's going to be a a tile on something other than hbo yeah oh so it's no because it is on hbo right now right now But Zaslav, anything's for sale.

43:03I'm going to say this is an eight or nine. This is a total eight or nine because here's the thing. The cable news networks are all losing audience on normal cable. That's all they're doing. So what you're saying is, all right, we're losing audience. We're going to eventually lose them all. Let's lose them all right now. That's what I think you're saying. Or Warner Brothers is just chopping itself up for parts. That's how this happens. I think it's just as likely that Warner Brothers sells its whole ball of wax, including CNN, to somebody as it is that they sell CNN separately. And live is where streaming is going.

43:43Yeah. Post Jake Paul, Mike Tyson. Monday Night Raw comes to Netflix. There's a lot of live that's coming to stream. The problem with it is you're selecting news, and that's the key thing. Yep. If you were selecting sports. CNN. Like NFL. CNN specifically. That's a different story. And Warner has no sports to sell. CNN is in the unique - Justin's homotomy. For CNN. He's been wanting to - This will be the second year in a row I've called for them to be sold. But like, so full disclosure. But CNN is in a position where its brand matters in a way that is salvageable from where they are right now. And you could make an argument to say, I've previously said that this was an Apple acquisition.

44:23because I think Apple could turn it into something that is a little bit less politically obsessed and a little bit more is the live news story happening. Watch it via Apple News, CNN, whatever. But I think that we're at a point now where the prices are so low. The audience is so scattered. It is a distressed asset that could be turned around and made into something more than what it is right now. CNN gets sold. but hold on you remember when cnn what was the name of that cnn service they tried which was that cnn plus type thing wasn't that what it was called yeah the one that was cnn plus and it did not survive the new ownership they yeah i think it's no i don't think because news is such a heavy commodity it's different than when you talk about wrestling or you talk about the jake paul fight where it's such a it's so not a commodity and the thing is it's very easy to jump to another news service yes a you know it may be a different political bent but i yeah that's every stream i would say that's like an eight or a nine nah that is the thing that gets in my way is that i think somebody was going to buy a bunch of warner brothers discovery as at once uh including cnn they're not going to buy just cnn uh is that would still count though are we going to let it If it gets sold with Cartoon Network, I don't win.

45:48Okay. Then I call it a one. Yeah. Because Warner Brothers Discovery definitely gets sold. No, no, no. I'm also saying, you can add to it, I am also saying that it becomes a streaming exclusive tile. That's what makes it a little bit more. I think whoever gets it makes it a tile. So, yeah. I'm surprised you're saying it's one. David's calling it an eight. I'm probably calling it a two. Way, way higher because news is a client. than eight wow i say it's a it's a quantity and people could jump to something else no problem they're not though they're jumping away from news altogether so water water brothers discovery has just been waiting for someone to buy it uh they just divided themselves into the parts that make money and the parts that don't so it's and cnn's cnn's in the bucket cnn's in the buy one get one bucket.

46:38Yeah. So I think it's clear that it's going to be sold in some manner or other. Rob, David's on the high end. I'm on the low end. I'm on the low end because I think that although I can't say it's going to happen exactly like Justin is saying it's going to happen, we know something's going to happen and it will be available on a tile. I just see those things happening. Maybe not exclusively on a tile, but it will be available on a tile. I can see it Things happening to other properties, just not news. That's the only thing. News, I just can't see it happening because it's being a commodity. We got to move off this one, Rob.

47:13Pick a number. I'm going to go two. Two, eight, two. Let's give it a three. We'll nudge it a little towards. Well, I know because you said one. I'll take it. All right, that's fine. I'll take it. All right. Listen, folks, we will be back at the end of the year. Don't forget that. That's why we're doing all this point stuff. So be sure to come back to the predictions results show in a year to see what happens here. All right, I'm the last one to go. At number one, my prediction, agentic AI will be something we are all using. Agentic AI is the idea that you have a smaller slice. It's not the big chatbot.

47:58It's not the huge model that does everything. Those will still be around. They'll still be useful. But agentics are made specifically for you to do a thing. Most likely we will be using it for some kind of work thing, you know, like processing spreadsheets or doing reports on metrics or anything that you look at and you're like, I have to do this, but I don't want to do it. Agentic can do it can do ordering. And I think it will be something that it becomes common by the end of the year that everybody's talking about what their favorite agents are. Maybe we'll have a different name for them by the end of next year.

48:33I don't know about that. But I think we will have commodity usage of agentic AI by the end of the year. I'm giving this a one. This is obvious. It's already happening. Point one. Point one. Point one. Yeah, yeah. See, we're all inside the bubble because we know this is going to happen. But it's happening already. It's happening in 2025. Yeah. Somewhere on Earth. I mean, we're like a software update of the current ChatGPT app from it happening right now. But most people don't use it. Most people don't even know it exists. I'm saying like the vast majority of people. Chat wants to do this. All right.

49:13Give me a threshold. Give me a threshold. This will be iPhone level common. Give me a threshold. Yeah. What's the installment? What's the install base of the iPhone? Like that many hundreds of millions of people will be using agents. I think it's so possible that this is going to be a true thing that happens, that people will be doing it and not even know that it's agentic AI. It's just, oh, this is how this app works. And that's why I said there might be a different name for it, but it'll be like apps. Everybody uses apps now. For a while, it was like, ooh, you have an iPhone. I hear that has apps.

49:47Now everybody's got it. No, because it'll just be like, oh, I'm talking to Gmail. because Gmail now push notifications. It's not the talking to though. It's the like, I have a thing that goes and does my job for me and I don't have to talk to it. That's the agent part. Yes, exactly. No, but that's my point is that it's agendic AI that will happen the fastest is on a root level for - So you're saying do my job for me. So like what percentage of my job is it actually doing? I think this is - Not, not, not, no. Again, again, again, it's like, look, the reason why I said talk to Gmail is because part of your day your job is reading email, right?

50:24Like if you had a agent that would, you did never even installed aside from hitting a button once. And now all of a sudden you had an entirely different email experience as if you were a high level CEO of somebody sorting things intelligently based on what you've had to say. And you're able to search through things through voice or text or whatever in a totally different way. That's a gentic AI that is constantly working on your behalf that you did not set up a thing for. Or pay all my invoices, right? It just goes through my email, finds the invoices, writes up, it goes into my PayPal or my bank account, you know, does the transfers.

50:59Boom. It's all done. Yes. By the way, that's the kind of stuff that you're going to need Apple intelligence for, because there's only a few gatekeepers that we trust all that information. Yeah. And I think there'll be things that'll even be even simpler than that. Like right now, I talk into a microphone darn near six to eight hours a day. And it's, it's automatically directly transcribed, put into a folder where I can go and look at the exact text of what I said into this microphone. It's not a stretch to say that a agent will then grab that text and then, you know, it can then, you know, take it and it'll, it'll analyze it and it'll determine that, oh, here's how we actually make this thing that you said on podcast into a newsletter article that it automatically just turns it into one, formats it, it's ready for getting to chip out and all I have to do is send.

51:46And literally I did nothing other than send. You can just have the agent send it for you well i'm i'm a control freak so i want to then you'll have approval right but you will have to go and paste it in and press we already have a portion of what you're describing we just started using this ai tool for zoom called fathom which creates a to-do list for our team we have a like a team meeting in the morning it could create and it's pretty darn good to-do list so it's not that much a leap from taking that to-do list and then creating you connecting it to actual actions. The question is, how far can that go in the next year?

52:23I don't know, but we're a good percentage of the way there already. So I will accept one point for this, but are you going to make me take less? No, one's fine. I would just want a firmer threshold than... 100 million. 100 million agents. agents people are doing something with an agent that now we need to define what is agentic i don't know yeah yeah i'm gonna be an agent agent all right my second one is even more amorphous uh people will be complaining constantly about pasky by the end of this year because it will be everywhere and used by everyone and everyone will be complaining about how they got forced to use pasky um i don't know that i think it's going to be true about your email but i think for dtns uh you're going to get emails about other people talking about other people complaining about because you have 70 of the world's right now i get people complaining about pasky emailing daily tech news show next by the end of next year they'll be complaining about how their relatives are complaining about that.

53:40Yeah, a New York Times trend piece about the passkey problem. Right, an Atlantic Monthly. I don't think it can move that fast. I don't think it can move that fast. There are so many legacy systems out there that have to do significant work to get passkey to work in those systems. I just don't see enough of them getting converted to where we're going to get any critical mass to where people are going to be complaining about it to that level. Because right now, all the things that we generally use passkey for If you really don't like it, you can just not use passkey and still use passwords. And I think that when people really start to complain about it, that's the only option that they have.

54:19So I just don't see that happening because I'm thinking about the enterprise. There's so many systems to where it's going to cost these organizations literally billions of dollars, many, many, many billions of dollars to do the conversion on these systems that they've had in place using passwords for 20, 30, 40 years in some case. I just don't see that happening to where it can get done in 2025. So you're saying it's a five. I'm saying it might even be higher than that because I'm almost certain. I don't know. First of all, you said people complaining about technology. Isn't that always the case?

54:54No, no, no. But that's his point. He's basically saying that passkey is going to be extraordinarily adopted over the next 12 months and that because of that, evil will complain. I would love that to be true. Just so you know, as someone who follows identity a lot through our cybersecurity news channels, the fight to get people off of traditional passwords has been going on for decades. Passwords have been a poor form of identification for decades. It was bad when it was essentially made available in the 1960s. So what you're saying now is that we're – it's just not going to happen. It's just not going to happen.

55:37You're going to get greater adoption of it, but it's not going to happen to a mass level. So you're giving me an eight. I will give you a five then on this one. I'll give you a five. I'll take a five. I'll take a five. I'll give you the eight. So maybe you want to go six. I'll give you six. I'm giving him a six. All right. Six. What is the barometer we're looking at here? Yeah, this is an amorphous one. People will complain. Yeah. So you're going to hear people outside the bubble talking about like passkey. I think the New York Times think piece about it is a good. But this goes back to the to what Rob said earlier.

56:16Passkey panic. We asked three of our friends and wrote about Chelsea in New York Times. If any major site starts requiring passkeys and offers no other solution. Yeah. And that's right. Then then then you'll hear. And that will be the turning point. I'm going to say there's going to be enough encouragement from big sites to use Passkey that it's going to cause people to be like, what the crap are they keep trying to get me to use this Passkey for? I tried it once and it was a pain in the patootie. Pain in the Passkey. Yeah, exactly. Man, you have to mark this as explicit, don't you? I know. I apologize for my strong language.

56:52I actually think that Passkey could be the thing that replaces Passkey. Oh, I think it will. I think it absolutely will. I'm going to say that we need a better solution. Yes. Well, thank you all for your predictions. I can't wait to live through 2025 and find out which of us were right. I need to throw my point on something. What are we all throwing our points on? We ended up with six. Yeah? Are we good with six? No, no, no, no, no. What's our chip? We're floating our point. We each get to chip. I'm throwing my chip on, and I want Rob to write the massive return to the office. I'm throwing my one shit onto that.

57:23All right. All right. Good. So where are you putting yours, Justin? um i'm going to put it on i'm gonna i'll do it on return to office too yeah i've read he's in on the return to office fine no you want to know what no no no i'm gonna i'm gonna say it again yeah i'm doing it on my own i'm back in my own play i want double points no we will make it David was so mad about that. He left.

57:56I don't know what just happened. I literally slapped my table in the camera. That's how mad you are about Justin playing it on his own thing. Before we get out of here, where could folks find you in the new year, David Spark? CISOseries.com. That's where we all are. And I want to make a big, exciting announcement. In 2025, Sarah Lane is joining the CISO series team as well. She'll be a reporter for our show, Cybersecurity Headlines, which is modeled after your headline show. So if you like headlines, tech headlines, but you like them more security related and you also like Sarah Lane, well, you'll get to hear her and many other wonderful reporters on CISO Series.

58:35Everybody wins. Go check it out. CISOseries.com. Justin Robert Young, what about you? Well, we talked a lot about AI and I have a brand new AI podcast with Andrew Main, the original prompt engineer for OpenAI. it's called the attention mechanism it's available wherever you get podcasts and we got a lot to talk about and if half these predictions come true it's going to be a hell of a ride Rob Dunwood my friend we'll be getting more of you on not only DTNS live Thursdays and Fridays but also on the DTNS briefing that is launching as well where else can people find you? Daily Take Headlines I do that three days a week every week as well so we've got that But yeah, my baby is the Tech John that was launched right here in Experiment Week three years ago.

59:24So if anyone is interested in what's going on in the week's tech news, but you're going to get it from folks who look like me and sound like me, you want to head over to thetechjohn.com. That's thetechjown.com. Patrons, that is it for DTNS 2024. Thank you all so much for supporting us. We could not do this show, literally could not do this show without your help. You are what powers it. So thank you, thank you, thank you for being here once again as we head into yet another year of Daily Tech News Show. This is our last show for the holiday break. We return to live shows Thursday, January 2nd, 2025 with Justin Robert Young.

1:00:04Oh, my gosh, he's coming right back. I hope he has a good new year. I hope you do, too. We'll get all the details at DailyTechNewsShow.com slash live. See you next year.

1:00:16pretty bold claims am i right only way to tell who got it right and who got it wrong is to tune in next week on tuesday and watch our lineup of holiday episodes starting monday with our best of 2025 show talk to you then the dtns family of podcasts helping each other understand Diamond Club hopes you have enjoyed this program.