We are not ready for better deepfakes

24:35Totally. That, I think, is the biggest tell of the fourth generation borderline models that exist today is the audio, right? Because audio models are obviously making progress of their own, but none of them yet focus enough on sort of like casual, everyday voice that sounds like it was recorded very ad hoc. Like a lot of them come off a little bit too professional, a little bit too advertising or podcast or something like that. These models struggle with that because they were just never built for this type of, you know, casual use case. And then secondarily, you know, there's an issue for matching audio and video, essentially, where let's say you're on the streets of New York City in the video, you're walking down, you expect there to be some sort of noises is happening.

25:27You know, you expect there to be like people talking and walking in the background, maybe cars honking and driving by and things like that. And so audio models just don't have that context today, right? Like when you're generating a piece of audio, you just can't tell it like, actually, this is a New York city on the street. So make it right for that. Right. It also carries through into things like, you know, if you're walking down the street of New York city, like you're probably don't not having like a professional microphone in front of you, right? So audio is not going to sound perfect. It's going to be like, kind of like sound like it's recorded at a distance.

25:56And so those properties of the audio can't be generated right now. And so because of that, it's very obvious. Sometimes you listen to the clip and it looks like it's recording a podcast studio, but you watch it and it's walking down the streets in New York City and your brain is just like, this doesn't connect, right? And so that's like the key problem. I would say Google's VO3, from what we know about it, what people know about it, they haven't really released any details about this, but supposedly they're generating audio and video simultaneously in a single model, which is definitely a technical achievement if true, because people haven't done that before.

26:33And if that is true, then it is doing the right thing. The audio is being generated with context of what the video is going to be. That's why it's able to generate background noises and things like that. It just feels to me a little bit under-trained right now because it has a little bit of the, you can hear sort of cracking in the, in the audio. As if you look, listen to it closely, you can hear like, you know, almost cracks between the voice. You can, you know, hear a creak a little bit. And that's like a tell I would say right now, but I imagine if it's under training, I'm sure they'll figure it out in like a couple more months.

27:06So yeah, I was going to ask, when do you think the audio realness catches up to the visual realness? There's two paths. I think we can look for, to the audio companies to figure that out. And there's companies like Eleven Labs that are working on, they have a V3 model now that just launched, which was maybe a month ago. They previewed it. It's more widely available now. That seems to be much closer to a realistic audio than anything we've seen. No other audio company comes close to that, I would say. But it seems like they're still working on making improvements on that to make it even better.

27:38On the Audio Plus Video side, Google is the only company that's working on Audio Plus Video at the moment that's publicly released. We're also working on it internally. But we haven't released anything about it and probably not for a little bit more until it gets pretty good. So that's kind of the state of the world as we know it right now. But we think that over the next six months, this focus is going to come back because it's just use case driven, right? Like all these technologies at the end of the day, like, you know, there's easy solutions to, you know, we talk about like, okay, there's deep fake audio, there's deep fake video.

28:11Oh, it can cause damage. What's the easiest solution? Let's all stop working on it. let's all stop working on it. That's one solution, right? It's the most extreme solution. But at the end of the day, there's commercial value in this, right? And just by the nature of capitalism and how much commercial value there is and all this stuff, it will happen, you know, and nobody can stop it. No law can stop it because there's other countries, you know, the world is a big place. And when there's so much commercial value in this type of stuff, things will move. And so with audio, it just comes down to like, is there commercial value in having a conversational sort of casual style, social media style audio generator?

28:51Right. I think there is, I think it's going to be realized, you know, in the short term at some point and someone will do it. I feel like the big question overhang all this, which is Grav, like you're building this. You're also talking about the risks of it and how it's already been used to deceive at scale. Why are you building this? I know there's commercial interest. I know that, you know, you've raised a lot of money, like you're making money. I know that there's a lot of interest in this technology for a lot of things, but God, when I look through how this is being used already and how I feel, even as a relatively, I would say, informed internet user, which is that I am increasingly unable to quickly decipher what is real or not, But why is this worth it?

29:38Why is it worth building this when you're seeing the impacts of it already? It's a great question. So, I mean, I think I fundamentally believe that the technology itself is inevitable, right? Like, we cannot escape the development of this technology. It's kind of like trying to stop LLMs from happening, right? They will happen. We may or may not be a part of it. We can choose not to be a part of it. But the technology itself is, it's already on its way. and just by the nature of capitalism, it will get built, it will get adopted, right? If the value is there and it seems like the value is there and that's what we're seeing.

30:12Like we have millions of users using this stuff to literally do, you know, stuff like getting their business off the ground, right? Like it's a one person shop, like a lot of our users are like, by the way, millions of people who are small businesses like nail salons and like, you know, oh, it's like a plumber or an electrician or it's like a home cleaning service or, you know, trash removal, lawn services you know these types of users right like everyday people that are using our technology to help get leads sell stuff make a name for themselves grow their business things that are just creating a ton of value in the economy so it's hard to argue with this type of value i think right on the flip side you get these negative effects and the way i think about that is like i mean so many times in today's world like you look at the state of the world and you imagine I'm like, I wish things were different.

31:04I wish there was something I could do about some war in some country or like some political thing that's happening. I wish I could contribute to it, but all I can do is I can vote or I can donate money. And that's really the extent of anything that I can actually truly achieve, right? As an individual. And so when I get a chance to be actually at the front and center of helping decide where a certain inevitable technology is going to go, how society might change and actually have an input into it, I'm going to take a seat at the table, right? Like I'm not going to walk away and be like, you know, not for me.

31:38I'm going to take a seat at the table and be like, I would love to help figure this out, right? I would love to work with all the information I can get, work as hard as I can to make sure that this is done in the right way and that the positive value outweighs any negative value in the long run, right? Hopefully. And by the way, that's the case with every technology, right? And we've seen this over and over again, how there's positive and negative. There's almost every technology that's been developed, right? The question just comes down to, do you want to be part of the conversation or do you want it to be figured out by other people?

32:10The title of your defake blog post this week is what's keeping us up at night. Is there a way that captions could be used that if you woke up and found out would make you reevaluate all this when you're weighing the good and the bad? I would hope not because we are staying up all night to make sure that that does not happen basically, right? And we are constantly thinking about strategies, constantly thinking about what a future world might look like. Fast forward a hundred years, right? Like what does the world look like when all this stuff has been fully developed and played out. Backtrack from there, what went wrong?

32:48You know, what are the things along the way that were learned? And how can we make sure that mistakes are not made and that things are done the right way? You've done that exercise, like thought out that far? Yeah, definitely. Lay it out. What is the worst scenario? I would say one possible scenario, right, which seems most likely given the current information that we have, right? Like, we don't know what technology might develop around, you know, identifying these videos or so on and so forth, right? So given a lack of that information, let's say nothing changes in any of those areas. I think the most likely scenario is that we kind of go back to how things were 100 years ago.

33:32Essentially, video didn't exist. Audio recordings didn't really exist. Photos barely existed. and so let's just call it they didn't exist everything was practically just a matter of trust right like what you believed and what you saw just depended on oh well who wrote it well it's this publication the xyz publication and they're very reputable you know it's like oh okay so i believe it right or maybe it's like a trial and it's like well did they do it well we have three witnesses. Do we believe the witnesses? Well, yeah, they're upstanding people, you know, so we believe them. That's sort of the worst case of where things end up, right?

34:14You mean like society wholesale rejects this and goes back in time? Essentially, because nothing can be trusted, right? Like any kind of information digital, right? Like whether it's audio, video, written, right? Like nothing can be actually recorded. So the only thing that can be recorded is what people have seen, right? And that's the only that can be trusted, but that can be trusted only as much as you trust the person, right? And everybody has motives to manipulate the truth. So that's obviously something that's the way, but that is how the world worked a hundred years ago, right? That's exactly how the world worked.

34:44Not to say that that was a better world. I don't think so. I think we've come a long way from that, but that is the worst we could regress to, right? So that's like the base case, I would say, right? Is that world. I would say the one difference between that world and today is that information can travel much faster today than it could back then, which means that damaging information or information that, you know, could potentially have any harm can make its way through a lot more people today and probably in the future, even faster than it could a hundred years ago, right? The hundred years ago, it might've been limited, but at the same time, there's a flip side of that too.

35:22A hundred years ago, if something made it out, if, you know, some damaging information, information made it out across the U S like, oh, something about a candidate or an election or something, it will be really hard to counter that because you don't have a way of reaching all those people that quickly anymore either, right? Which is flipped now where you can counter that and be like, hey, this is incorrect information, right? Like this is the reality. And so, you know, it kind of falls in a balance of pros and cons between, you know, where things are today and where things were back then. But I would say that's like the worst case scenario.

35:56And then building a topic - case scenario is not just like society collapses because we go into echo chambers and we don't trust each other and we go to war with each other that's that seems reasonable fair yeah i believe in people in society enough to think that if this scenario has played out in the past and it has literally right like there was a time where you couldn't trust anything but what people said then it will probably play out in a similar way in the future if that is the reality we come back to where, well, you can't trust anything but what's been said by people and how much you trust them, right?

36:32Which actually is interesting because it brings back almost an importance of the press and trusted people and journalism and all the things that have been reversed. I mean, pendulum swings, right? So I could easily see the pendulum swing the opposite way 20, 30 years from now, where there's a world in which this is all solved by just having trusted journalists and, you know, trusted names and, you know, that type of thing, some sort of system, you know, around that. And the pendulum swings the exact opposite way of where it is right now, because right now it's like nobody's trusted basically. And so it's very scary to me that trust in institutions are at an all time low as deep fakes are proliferating.

37:13It's true. And I think you're saying that people may go back because they realize like, oh, wait, when I don't trust anything and nothing is actually real and I can't tell, I actually just have no way to make sense of the world. Yeah, I think that's one possible outcome. And I think, you know, with video and audio and sort of these levels of deep fakes appearing today in a world where there isn't already that much trust in anything, it might accelerate that trajectory to going back to the world that existed before, right? A pendulum swing in the opposite direction. That's one scenario, I think.

37:53But I think that's the base case. And that's the case where we can't figure out anything. There's just no solution that we can come up with. I would say there are clear directions of where solutions could be heading. There's ideas like crypto signing and things like that. I'm not talking about the blockchain, but like just signing cryptographically videos that are recorded on device as they're recorded with the identity of the person who recorded it. so you know where it was recorded when it was recorded who recorded it as opposed to like an unsigned video which is like it could have come from anywhere there's no source there's no crypto signed sort of like signature to say that this was recorded by any particular person right so you might have some concept of like trusted videos right which were recorded on crypto signing devices right where maybe on an iphone there's an inbuilt like chip that automatically is signing the video as it's being recorded with your, you know, your name or something like that.

38:48So, you know, who recorded it and location where it was recorded. So things like that could emerge as, you know, a possible outcome in the future. Isn't that just fancier metadata that can be scraped just like metadata can today? Well, it is metadata, but it's cryptographically signed. So it's one step further. I think the problem that I have with today's metadata, like SynthID and like some of those other solutions. Yeah, you're not a fan of watermarks. says in the support, you don't think that's going to work. I think it's just a very thinly veiled attempt at like avoiding the problems. Like it's like the answer you want to give to a journalist when you're like, well, what are you doing?

39:24Oh, we put a watermark on it. It's like, yeah, it's so easy to remove the watermark. It takes like five seconds. And by the way, it's easy to accidentally remove the watermark. You know, you may not even be wanting to remove it. You accidentally, you crop the video and it removes the watermark. Right. And so I don't know, what's the point, right it doesn't it doesn't seem to be actually doing anything besides just like pretending that it's solving a problem and so i'm not really a big fan of that and you know i'd be curious to see like i can't come up with how how exactly they would make it better than what it is right now maybe they have a roadmap and i'd be curious to see like the companies that are working on that kind of stuff you know where where something like that might go but it's not to my satisfaction i would say i will say that maybe there are cryptographic solutions though right like that that that might be an interesting direction.

40:10It's still watermarking, but it's like crypto watermarking. Maybe there's something to that. There's obviously like things there too that could go wrong in terms of like on device, people could hack stuff and all kinds of things. But it seems much more reasonable to me if it was crypto signed rather than just like, oh, I just threw some metadata on there that anybody can change literally, right? Or remove, or I could myself literally remove proving that it's false, right? I would also say a big part of it is also like, do you want to mark videos that are real or do you want to mark videos that are fake?

40:47You know, which one is more important? I haven't thought of that. Yeah. I kind of feel like you want to mark videos that are real because then at least, you know, when one comes along and you got to mark them in a way that it can't be removed, obviously right or or manipulated but at least in that world it becomes clear that maybe the social media platforms or something can have some something that says like like a checkmark right like a blue checkmark but you know that means nothing anymore but if that meant something like a blue checkmark on the video that's like this is a real video it's verified through crypto right as opposed to like this is an ai generated video which i don't know if that really adds any value.

41:28We need to take another quick break. We'll be right back.

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44:29We're back.

44:33So that sounds still kind of theoretical. In the absence of the cryptographically signing something on device, What are you doing at captions as someone who is literally building these models and releasing them and having millions of creators use them, as you just explained? What are you doing to keep your models from being used to do bad? yeah i mean so obviously we've run into these problems before like we talk about in the report how you know people have tried to abuse our models before and it's not a thing that happens like you know every once in a while there's often people who are trying to abuse our models all the time right and the thing is though in today's world with a few different options available on the market and some of the options being completely devoid of any kind of moderation or any attempt to even moderate, if you make it just hard enough, people will abandon it and just go to the place where it's absolutely easy to do it.

45:33Right. So that's kind of why we haven't dealt with this problem as publicly and as obviously as other companies might have, because we make it just hard enough where they just choose to leave and go to the platform where it's really easy. That's kind of what we've seen more recently, more specifically on, on what we are doing at this moment with some of our most recent models that are actually mentioned in the report. We're starting off with like, uh, the most basic approach, which is let's just, let's just look at all the videos created. Let's just have human look at all the videos created. And if something You can do that?

46:13You're at the scale where you can have humans look at every video? At this moment, yeah. But that may not reasonably be possible at some point in the future. But at this moment, even though it might be time-consuming and operationally complex, that's where we want to start. Just so we can understand the patterns, right? We might not even understand all the types of abuse that are possible, right? There's things that people come up with that we wouldn't even have thought about. One of the ones that I've been thinking about recently is like ID verification abuse, right? Where you kind of take a person's likeness, have them hold up an ID that's like, you know, obviously digitally created one of themselves and use that video and have them say something like, this is me on this date or something like that.

46:58Use that video to get verified on, you know, some sort of verification system. Many companies have these, right? Like clear type stuff, basically. and yeah i mean these are the types of things that every day people will come up with new ways to abuse right and it's it's an ongoing and constant battle right it's like we do things we wait and watch we see five new things appear and then we do more things and then we wait and watch and then five new things appear and people figure out how to bypass stuff people figure out how to like you know get squeezed past the defenses basically right and then we have to continue improving, basically.

47:34And that's like never ending. You know, there's no end to that today or ever, really. But I think this is a pretty played out playbook in that sense, right? Like, this is kind of how trust and safety teams have always operated. And this is kind of how abuse has always been prevented. It's like always an ongoing battle, right? Like, there is criminals out there who will break the law, you know, and we have to do our best to make sure that doesn't happen. Yeah, but as we've talked about, this is also very new, like the ability to deep fake someone else to impersonate someone else to commit fraud in ways that weren't possible before and like for example can i can i go into mirage studio right now and deep fake anyone and is what is the constraint on what i can make them say what i can make them do do you even know that that's me or it's not me like that's that's what i'm trying to get at Totally.

48:25Yeah. I mean, there's like unsolved problems around like, how do you make sure that someone can't upload a picture of somebody who is not a public figure, who they might know in real life, but is not a public figure. So we wouldn't be able to identify them and then have them be able to say something, you know, that they didn't say. And in those cases, we have to depend on like people complaining. And that has happened where people reach out to us and said, hey, like someone made a video. I never said these things. And we have to go figure out who did it, ban the accounts, reach out to the, you know, share the.

49:00Usually there's a lawsuit involved between the parties. So we're obviously happy to share whatever information is necessary for that. We have to take those on a case by case basis, basically. Right. But it always comes out as like a user complaint or, you know, something of the nature. Yeah. I mean, in your video, your deep fake video accompanying this report, you say, you know, please use this tech responsibly and quote, keep us honest. And to me, it's kind of like handing like teenagers keys to a Ferrari without having, you know, an ID yet and saying like, keep us honest, like go have a jewel ride, but keep us honest.

49:35There's no forcing function on you or the industry at large to actually have responsibility aside from like, yeah, you want to stay in business. But as you said, there's a lot of market pressures with people doing way worse things and allowing people to do way worse things with these models. So you're already in this, like, as you said, hyper-capitalistic setup. And there is zero regulation on this topic, really. I mean, there is around deepfake nudity, which I was really glad to see. but what do you think needs to happen beyond that to actually give you you and your industry actually a little more liability in the outcomes of this technology and not just be like here's the keys you know don't crash i think the first step in my mind and i'm always open open to hearing feedback on this from other people and you know invite viewers to reach out to me too but i would say the first step in my mind is to have laws around criminality of using people's likeness to say cause harm basically because there's not criminal laws around that right now there's civil laws around it you know i think a well-crafted law around some sort of criminal action around using people's likeness against their will for certain things i think that might be the place to because that doesn't exist right now.

50:57There is a civil liability, but doing lawsuits and stuff is just an expensive thing. And it may not be accessible to everybody who's affected by something like this. So I would say that's the place to start. What is the number one commercial use case that you're finding that people are using your models for right now? So I would say the number one commercial use case is marketing. Okay. So that's when we're talking about like the benefits outweigh the risks. Right now, people are using this to jumpstart their marketing efforts and do things with marketing they couldn't do before. That's right now you would point to as the top benefit of this technology.

51:39The top benefit today of the technology is being able to make videos for marketing, for sales, for entertainment, whatever that might be. Essentially, that means that people can kickstart their business out of nothing, right? Like people can make money, make a living, you know, feed their families and do stuff they couldn't have done before, right? Which moves, you know, not just their own lives, but it moves the entire country and the whole economy, right? So I would say that that is the flip side. And creators are making AI versions of themselves with Mirage. You had that release a few months ago that went pretty viral where you were showing all these examples of that.

52:22And that's, I mean, they can be in the ads, but when you think of traditional ads, it's not necessarily like generating the person in the ad. But is that really the main way people are doing this is they're putting AI versions of themselves in the ads? Yeah. So what has been popular is putting versions of yourself. So a lot of times, you know, think about a lot of these businesses that I kind of mentioned to you, right? they're not exactly camera ready, right? Like these are not people that are, oh, let me just like show up in front of the camera. Like I'm like, you know, some famous Hollywood actor or something, right?

52:57They're doing this for the first time and it's like kind of daunting. Also, it just doesn't come naturally to everyone. It doesn't need to. And that often holds them back from like having their business take off, basically. So think about this, right? 20 years ago, everybody needed a website. And there was an age where literally you could not have a business. If you had a business, you needed to have a website, right? And then after that, 10 years ago, maybe was the age of design. Oh, it's not enough to have a website. You have to have a design, right? Without a design, great design, like no one's going to trust your nineties looking website.

53:31And then this is the age of video, right? Like literally everything sells through video. Everything markets through video. TikTok is obviously a big platform. Reels is huge now. YouTube Shorts is catching up, right? These are massively growing platforms where the entire economy is running through these things, right? And all the discovery of products and services is happening through these platforms. If you can't participate in this, you are getting left behind. And these types of tools let everybody participate. They let everybody participate in this economy that is a massive economy, where whether you're a plumber or electrician or whether you're like a store or, you know, lawn service or whatever, you need to be a part of this economy to be able to sell, to be able to get leads, to be able to convert people, you know, grow your business, make money.

54:21This is a part of the game now. These tools allow people to participate in that without having to have the skill of being some like perfect person on camera, right? I think that's the game changer. People love what we offer because of that, right? And we have one of the largest number of subscribers of any AI video company because of that. So that's what I would say, you know, has, has changed over the years. Like video is kind of like you live or die on it practically. With AI, I'm generally not as doomerism as a lot of people in the press. I think a lot of this stuff will be sorted out. It will be very chaotic, the job loss, all that stuff.

54:59But that stuff to me will sort itself out over time. This deepfake stuff really worries me. And we've talked about all of, you know, where the tech is headed, how you could potentially fight it. To be honest, it seems like there really isn't a plan. It seems like at scale, we still have to figure this out. So can you leave us with a sense of, you know, as this is progressing in the ways we've talked about, where in the next six to nine months, there's going to be, you know, potentially unlimited synthetic video with audio that matches. How do we navigate this? How do we discern what is real or not?

55:35So I would say the number one thing to do in the short term and the fastest way to kind of mitigate this problem, at least, is to create awareness around it, right? Because I think a lot of people just don't know. Matter of fact, like a lot of that is already happening through platforms like TikTok. I mean, you said it yourself, like anytime there's something off in the video, there's 10 comments there like AI, AI, AI. And that's a small number of people who can tell. A vast majority probably can't, but there's some people who can. and TikTok essentially is giving them, you know, likes for being able to do that.

56:05You know, that's just the nature again of how TikTok works. But that is creating awareness. And like, you know, you'll also see in those videos, probably a lot of comments being like, oh my God, I could never have told, like, this is crazy, right? I don't even believe it. And now they believe it and now they know what to look out for, right? Because if they didn't even know it was possible, that leaves them kind of defenseless with this type of technology. So I would say step one is awareness, which is why we're all we're talking about it and we're open about like obviously the problems you know both for us for other companies we're also open about you know solutions that we're exploring and where things might go we're also talking about like what's coming next and not just like how amazing the technology is going to be because that it will right but also what the downsides are going to be of these next generation of models too right so we can be ready and prepared with solutions for what is to come right even before and by the way there's companies exclusively working on identifying this type of stuff, on finding solutions to detective fakes and things like that.

57:04We also want to give those companies a heads up of like, hey, by the way, these are the things that are coming and we should figure out how to detect these XYZ new things that are going to be happening. So that's the short-term plan, I would say. In the long term, a solution is needed. I think one nice step would be to formalize the legal process around this. right like i think we should have laws that kind of address this area it's a new area i get it why these things move slowly but i think it will get addressed i think there's motion around that in the government but i think that's just part of the puzzle because it's a global economy right like just having laws in the u.s will not do anything especially if the laws are like hindering progress and things like that right so they have to be done correctly but i would say beyond that there's like a more global solution needed and i actually think there needs to be more of a focus on marking and detecting videos that are known to be real and known to be sourced, known to be correct, right?

58:01Rather than trying to like mark every fake video, right? Because I mean, you can literally make fake videos with CGI, right? Like you can, you don't even need AI for it. You can just use CGI to make fake videos. They look super real. You know, you can put them in Hollywood movies. You can make anyone have, you know, people have been brought back to life in movies and stuff before. So this is not something that can't be done. If someone, a bad actor, a government, or, you know, wanted to do it today, they could do it with no AI at all, right? And so we should be prepared for all scenarios, including ones that are non-AI on that front, right?

58:33But I think the right solution is focusing on the videos that are real, marking them and actually surfacing them on the platforms that are distributing, for example, like TikTok and so on. So that's my short and long-term answer. All right, Gaurav, well, it was good to have this real podcast with you between two human beings. Hopefully we can check back in later and check in on the progress. And as you said, keep you all in the industry building this stuff responsible and honest. So appreciate your time. Yeah, of course. Yeah, great. Great to chat. Thank you.

59:08I'd like to thank Gaurav Mishra for taking the time to speak with me and thank you for tuning in. I hope you enjoyed it. If you'd like to let us know what you thought about the show or what else you'd like us to cover, drop us a line. You can email us at decoder at the verge dot com. We really do read every email. We also have a TikTok and an Instagram. Check those out at DecoderPod. If you like Decoder, please share it with your friends and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. And if you haven't already, please don't forget to subscribe to The Verge, which gets you access to my newsletter, command line, and a bunch of other great stuff.

59:39Decoder is a production of The Verge and is part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Our producers are Kate Cox and Nick Statt. Our editor is Ursa Wright. The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder. See you next time.

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