The Market Has Never Peaked in June Since 1950! Here's Why It Matters!

0:00This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed Human Ernest, what's up? Look, if you've been sitting on a business idea, a side hustle, or a brand you wanted to launch, this is your sign to finally make it happen. Wix Harmony lets you create an entire website just by telling it what you want. Literally, you type it, and it builds a site for you with business features already included. And the best part? You still have full control to edit everything yourself. It's fast, it's smart, and it makes building a website way easier than people think. Try it today at Wix.com slash Harmony. That's Wix.com slash Harmony.

0:37Earners, what's up? Look, building wealth isn't just about making money. It's about knowing where your money is working for you. That's why we partnered with Empower. Empower is all about helping you invest well so you can go out and live a little. Their free Empower personal dashboard gives you a complete view of your financial life in one place. Track your net worth, monitor your budget, analyze your investments, set retirement goals, and more. You've worked hard for your money. Now make sure it's working hard for you. Download the Empower personal dashboard or visit Empower.com. Not an Empower client paid or sponsored.

1:15At Oppenheimer, we're proven because we're grounded in discipline. For 145 years, we've been building and protecting wealth through every market cycle with precision, clarity, and the courage to think boldly beyond the moment. This is what market-tested legacy looks like for this generation and the next. Put the power of Oppenheimer Thinking to work for you. Wealth Management, Capital Markets, Investment Banking. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same premium wireless for$15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities.

1:54So do like I did and have one of your assistant's assistants switch you to Mint Mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to do at MintMobile.com slash switch. Upfront payment of$45 for three month plan equivalent to$15 per month required. Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. Default terms at MintMobile.com. All right, let's get to it, ladies and gentlemen. Investment fact of the week. Oh, this is a really good one. If you take the data, S &P annual highs per month since 1950 through 2025, do you know that never in the month of June has the market peaked in June?

2:37So this is a really, really great time to buy. Usually in July, we've only had three new highs for the year. August, we've had three. Normally in November and December is when we have the peak. So when I was going back and looking through the historical data, I thought it was very fascinating that it slows down in April and May and June. The market never has peaked since 1950 in the middle of the year. This is one of the greatest runs I think we've ever seen in tech history we could talk about valuations and p ratio and shiller ratio later but what this tells me is for the second half of the year the market is going to be on an absolute tear and if you are afraid or if you're new june is going to be a great opportunity to buy never in history since 1950 has the market peaked at this month now is going to be the time to buy this month roll into the gains of for later in the year and you'll be a-okay see you at invest fast so you'll have a great opportunity to buy in August as well.

3:40But November and December should be absolutely amazing. That's the investing fact of the week. Damn, man. I guess the buy may and go away thing didn't really hold steady. No. I think NASDAQ was up 8 % for the month. I feel like we have these conversations more and more every week with the, I don't know if it's fear, maybe it's anxiety of, is this going to crash? What are we looking at? What are we seeing? There's no way that this could be real. How is this going to be sustainable? And every time we look, I mean, there's a new metric. And I know 99 gets compared a lot. And there's obviously some huge differences.

4:18Number one, the amount of revenue being brought in, the amount of earnings that's being brought in, the profitability of a lot of these companies where those didn't exist in 99. I feel like the new rules are being made right now. Right? It just feels like if you, you have to be, flexible with some of history in a sense right as I listen to a lot of experts I was up watching Jensen last night just blown away watch Tom Lee was watching CMV all day and I'm just like they don't know what to make of what we're seeing and so remain disciplined but as some sometimes you just have to make adjustments in the sense of you know where's the new entry point a lot of times I I mean, probably four to five times a day.

5:04What's the entry point? When I'm like, let's see where this thing settles. Well, maybe it doesn't settle. And so now we have to be adjustable with some of our plan. But that doesn't mean we don't remain disciplined. So I think that would be my rule of the week. It would be have a plan, be disciplined, but also have the flexibility to adjust. And I'll say this too. The selling may go and go away axiom was always done. And it was for institutional investors. I always like to go to other business realms, right? Bob Johnson never did that with BET. Steinbrenner never did it with the Yankees. Dolan never did it with New York.

5:41We have to make sure, because a lot of times in media, people will give you advice on what to do and do the complete opposite. For example, like if you take Ray Dalio in Bridgewater, one of the greatest firms of all time, even now through principles and changing world order, he's telling you about an imminent collapse, right? And he did this in the 80s and the 90s and early 2000s while selling a diversified portfolio strategy to every continent on earth. Please be mindful of the information that you're giving on public airwaves because most billionaires are not going to share their strategies on what they're actually doing in real time.

6:21Well, you know what? Billionaire actually did share his strategy was Mike Novogratz. And that was somebody that we've had on market money. Beat me to it. And then when we went on his podcast and he was saying about gold and after that gold went up like 70%. He talked about Bitcoin when it was, you know, at a low point, a variety of different things. He actually was talking, he was talking bad about XRP during the pandemic. And I think they, we actually, they was like, yo, can y 'all cut that part out? Because then XRP ended up in the dumpster. But he was one of the first billionaires to actually get on a broadcast and be like, yo, this, no.

7:06And then everybody in the comments was like, oh, he's trying to derail you. He don't listen to him. He's trying to sabotage your portfolio. Make sure you buy it. And we seen what happened to XRP ever since. Yeah, we're seeing. But I do say that to say. Good, good. Mike Novogratz will be at InvestFest. Get your tickets to InvestFest. For sure. InvestFest.com. Absolutely. One of my favorite investors for sure. Yeah. One of the few billionaires that will have at InvestFest. Stay tuned. Stay tuned to learn has been issued. I was going to say like we're watching rules being changed, right? When you hear guys, we just saw Michael Burry again with another proclamation, right?

7:49Tesla's numbers are fake. NVIDIA's numbers are fake. Okay. You were right in 2008. How many, what's the track record since? We just saw Berkshire Hathaway, who said they would be sitting on the sideline, just invest$10 billion into Google. Under new leadership three weeks ago, hey, the valuations are too elevated. We're going to wait. We're going to sit this out. We got a$400 billion treasure chest. Today, they allocated$10 billion into Google because of the AI demand, right? We're seeing this. We saw Michael Sellers said he would never, never sell his bitcoin and here y 'all kill me tonight i want an apology he would never sell his bitcoin yep lo and behold he has now sold it now you're starting to sell off and some of the derivative products that you made as a result to raise cash and i get it i'm not going because i've told in stock club uh let me get some pandas in chat the issues that he faced taking on those institutions right so they can suppress the market long enough to cause uncomfortability for you to make you reverse your course and to embarrass you um publicly and and to your point like you said most funds are not going to tell you their book of business on air for their competition to derail them they're oftentimes going to tell you the exact opposite of what they're doing and that's why it's really important to go through the filings and see you know even with Berkshire even though they have a bunch of cash on hand they're under new leadership he wants to get out of Buffett's shadow and he's gonna do so through tech it it's it's evident and and that's it goes back to that idea of just being able to adjust I'm not sure if everybody was witnessing this live but Friday during trading around 323 or two went out and we'll talk about that later with nvidia and arm and microsoft and at 330 you start to see companies running broadcoms running microns running sandus is running you see all these companies running but the one company that was kind of falling down was nvidia and it talked about being adjustable why is nvidia falling down well here comes a rebalancing act the act that you never get to see you just get to feel a part of right well why would they rebalance out of NVIDIA, this company that is going to be leading the AI dominance for the next five to 10 years, if not longer.

10:15Well, if you look at the largest allocation to S &P, when people see opportunity and they want to have liquidity, they're going to try to find liquidity from their largest holding. And their largest holding S &P is way to 8%. So let's rebound. Let's take some money off the table there and let's start spreading it into other companies as well. What does that mean? That means there's a broad exposure to AI. Not only are we seeing, institutions are seeing it. And so if Nvidia goes from 8.8 % in S &P down to 8.4, still the largest allocation, but now there's more liquidity to put it in other companies.

10:49And we kind of saw that happening at the end, like literally at the end of the day on Friday, if you look at the charts from about 3.30 to 4, you saw a drastic climb up in a lot of companies. That was happening. But if the average person is watching it it's like oh my gosh is it over and then here we go obviously that's a spoke yesterday and here we are with nvidia climbing back up over 13 dollars there everybody yeah if i can say this last point too please write this down the hedge fund business is in the capital accumulation business you are in the holding empires for 20 years business the two totally different things to everyone who kept asking me well what's up with microsoft and is it going to the rotation affected them and everyone who killed every software stock and some were valuable some were not but you have to realize ai is a software as well that's the interesting part um now salt now microsoft is starting to make a move and everyone's like okay is coming back from the dead that company is too valuable to go anywhere but the hedge funds are in the capital accumulation asset under management business you are in the hold companies and things that are valuable for a very long time business they are not the same please do not get tricked out of your spot yeah another another prime example of the market adjusting and i think snowflake became a trigger for that right snowflake becomes a software company when we're talking about that five layer kick again application software snowflake shows revenue growth okay that means that this sector actually has something and so you watch snowflake you watch service now you watch microsoft that was caught inside of that you watch the igv etf start to move up it starts hitting those those moving averages where it shows growth that trend line starts to move and now you see momentum going in and so things are happening and it might start with one company and trigger an entire sector so you got to be ready and be prepared can i ask you guys a question i forgot to mention that at the beginning welcome back congratulations back speaking of which is there any person that you know that is above 100 million dollars that sold out of any asset that you know of less than two years 100 no not 100 see even at that's telling go ahead rashad i just want to make that last That's the point.

13:20Yeah, well, it depends on how you define selling out of an asset, cause Trump has been trading like a maniac. Nancy Pelosi, she's been traded like a maniac. You know Trump? We not doing that. I don't know. I'm just saying, no, you don't need to. Fake news. I've seen him. I've seen him. Well, do you? No, no. Get this? No, I don't know Trump. I was like, damn. I didn't get that text, my boy. Don't know. Ernest, what's up? Look, building wealth isn't just about making money. It's about knowing where your money is working for you. That's why we partnered with Empower. Empower is all about helping you invest well so you can go out and live a little.

14:01Their free Empower personal dashboard gives you a complete view of your financial life in one place. Track your net worth, monitor your budget, analyze your investments, set retirement goals, and more. You've worked hard for your money. Now make sure it's working hard for you. Download the Empower personal dashboard or visit Empower.com. Not an Empower client paid or sponsored. Ask yourself, what are your best people spending their time on right now? Expense reports, receipt chasing, month end close that takes weeks. You become what you spend on and that's not what you're building toward. Brex is the intelligent finance platform that eliminates that work before it starts.

14:43AI agents that handle the manual stuff automatically. So your team can spend their time on what actually compounds. It's time to get Brex AF. Learn more at brex.com slash AF. Maintenance fee, overdraft fee, minimum balance fee, maximum balance fee. Banking fees are just a part of modern life. Or are they? They're not at Ally Bank. At Ally Bank, there are no tricks. No hidden fine print or jumping through hoops for better rates. They just want to help you save automatically while you spend. With spending accounts and savings tools with great rates. No tricks, no hidden fees. Banking built for life today.

15:23Learn more at Ally.com. Ally Bank. Member FDIC. What's up, cousin? I want a new phone. Have you seen any good deals? Everyone has free phones. But when I switched to T-Mobile, I got more value and so much more. Like streaming included. And travel benefits. And the best part? The price of your talk, text, and data is guaranteed for five years. Get more benefits and more value. At T-Mobile, families save and get a five-year price guarantee. Switch now at T-Mobile.com. Qualifying plan requires the price guarantee on talk, text, and data. Exclusions like taxes and fees apply. See T-Mobile.com. This is an iHeart Podcast.

16:00Guaranteed human.