Warning: This Oil Price Trigger Will CRASH The Market

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3:01Rashad Bilal:Let's talk about oil. We will be talking about Iran in a little bit. We didn't talk about Iran yet. But what price of oil becomes dangerous for stocks? I know a lot of people are talking about$80. That isn't the number. The number is$93.50. If we get to that level, it will start to have some negative effects in the economy. I know people have been asking about an oil trade and how do I play oil futures. It's too late. But set an alert. If we get to$93.50, it will give you a reason to be concerned about how stocks are going to perform, how the economy is going to go. The higher the oil price is usually the worse the economy does.

3:46So 80 is not, it's like a snooze alarm.

3:49Rashad Bilal:It's the first alarm to put on, but it's not the real level. $93.50 is a real level that you need to worry about. If we get there, you'll have some pushback and contraction in the market long-term. Yo, that's crazy. I was going higher. I was going higher. I had it at between 110 and 120. Based on historical, like the historical data, if you look at any recession that's tied to oil, 73 oil embargo, 79 Iranian revolution. In 2008, oil was at$147. In 2022, we were at 130, although it was short-lived. Remember that one month we had crude? That was crazy. It was negative. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So like 110 to 120, that's cautionary.

4:36Rashad Bilal:That's red flag. That means gas prices will be surging, right? Consumer spending will fall. Inflation will be the conversation in that time. And most importantly, and this is important, and this is why I'm bullish in 2026 and I was in 2025, corporate earnings will start to fall because their margins... if they get above that level if they get above that level oh for sure oh yeah corporate earnings and so if you look every earnings if you look i mean i think in 2025 79 of the s p had positive earnings growth for the year right we're off to a pretty similar start i know stocks have pulled back and companies have pulled back but if you look at their earnings growth they're all making they're still making money.

5:28Rashad Bilal:We start seeing oil in those levels, that changes. And that's, that's dangerous, right? And that's, those are the things we can't control. Like when we foresee these things, we can't control that, right? Those, having a conflict, starting a war, that's... We, we can't, right? We don't have a say in that, right? But we knew it was going to come because he was like war heavy president and went to have investment in Halliburton, Palantir, you know he's going to lean and use that especially as some information come out even if you follow the chess board like Venezuela what do we take from them Iran what do they have that can help contribute to what we took from Venezuela allegedly the writing is there but if we get to those levels 110 120 that's we got to be mindful And then we start to see maybe the VIX spike.

6:27Rashad Bilal:Again, we talked about the VIX and RSI last week. VIX started, and it got up to 25 today, dropped back down. But if it starts getting in that 25-30 range, okay. Okay. Someone asked, can I tell you why I came up with the number of 93.50? If you get your tickets to InvestFest and I do a presentation, I will tell you why those levels are so important. Go to InvestFest.com. See you there. InvestFest.com.

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