Why the Market CRASHES Every February (And How to Profit)

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2:24for three month plan equivalent to$15 per month required. Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. See full terms at mintmobile.com. What's the traded tip of the week? For all my investors who are worried about what's going on in the market right now, I need you to know that the market dropped February through March of 2026 this year. Also 2025, 2023, 2022, 2020, and 2018. this is the time this is like pre-season for investors and hedge funds before the money comes in i know there's a lot of doom and gloom that's going on in the world right now but the cycle that you're seeing of the market being down right now is normal the cost in 23 and 22 and 18 may be different but every year give in the last 15 years i need you expect for or just like we have that drop in late July, August that we have, February through March, until that capital starts to flow in that third week of March, we're going to be down.

3:30Stop worrying. It's going to be okay. It's giving you a time, a generational time to buy. Everything is going to be fine. The market normally goes down in February and March. Yeah, that's important. I love the historical perspective because it gives context to it. I think when you add into what's happening in March, we got quadruple widget, right? The third, the first quarter is ending at the end of March. You got the third week of the quarter in the last month, which would be March. So that's going to happen as well. But on the other side of it, right, when we look at the best six months to invest or trade, usually April is at the top.

4:09And so when you see opportunities like we saw last week, and maybe you saw something earlier today we'll talk about it a little bit later you you position yourself to be in these spots when april comes we saw it last year right when liberation day that happened in april then we saw the rebound in the best six months after that yeah that felt like an anomaly but if you look historically april may june have been solid month that second quarter of the year like you said deal flow started to come in a little bit differently people's quarterly report has changed that end of the year has changed. Which is something that we actually, we found out about actually last week.

4:45It was like, yo, you set when your year end is, right? Depending on when you created your business. So just having historical contact is important and understanding that we've been here before is important and understanding like, look, if you're going to invest, do it regularly, but keep these things in mind before you make a move. And secondly, Anytime that the VIX gets above 27 and normally takes anywhere from a month and a half to two and a half months for it to go back underneath 21. Once again, the most important chart, if you're going to be looking at it from a technical standpoint, that cannot be manipulated.

5:22We'll talk about manipulation later, is the VIX. so usually for me two months I should expect the VIX should be back around 20 which will lead into that April scenario that you talked about as well block out the noise like we told you last week where oil would go when to be concerned but keep your eyes on the VIX and if the VIX hits 27 or 30 or 35 that's a good time to buy into the top 10 stocks and you'll be a-okay yeah we saw the VIX hit 36 today. I think it closed at 25, which was a huge swing. 10 points on the VIX is hell of a turnaround. That's pretty abnormal, but it happened. But like you said, if you were here last week, you heard those numbers.

6:10You heard 93.50. I talked about 110 and 120. And we got all those ranges that quick. We were out of them. Interesting times. And that's why I kept saying the oil trade is over. It's priced in. I don't know when you guys want to talk about it, but man this is a different time geopolitically in terms of the market they turned the crude market into a meme stock by the time you get to chasing that move i'm not hating or gatekeeping you just didn't listen the first time which i didn't tell you what to invest in from day one troy told you i told you amgen lily costco walmart amd nvidia those are all my picks early on they're still there but you are now being used for the exit liquidity for the hedge funds and they're planning all faces and there's nothing you can do about it you have to be smarter than ever they realize that this class of investors is better than ever and now they're using that against you and getting on social media people saying oil is going to go to 150 do you know that the last time that oil was at 200 was 1929 for every$10 move that we have in crude gasoline is going to go up by 35 cents that will cripple the american economy and it's already in shambles as is so did it feel like a test like the past couple i mean if you're on social media if you're watching the news you hear oil you hear or you keep hearing oil you keep hearing your gas prices going to go up for the beginner like that intermediate maybe that investor the retail investor that hasn't been through it hasn't heard it did you feel like it maybe was a test to see what will they do will they say hey we're going to buy future contracts want to get into 100 or options contracts want to get for it to get to 100 and then you're sitting there sunday night and you're like wow we're at 117 and then you wake up at 9 31 and you're back at 94 97 did it feel like a test?

8:06I said it since episode 70. Never in the history of American capitalism do they come to black people and say this is the investment to make first. You got to be as cool as Rashad is sitting calm and comfortable and chill. That's the biggest lesson in investing is that investors love certainty. But when you have everyone saying it's going to 150, 200 and then people are getting excited and then you're like well Ian's gatekeeping. I'm trying to protect you. If you haven't traded the crude, like even this, crude contracts used to cost$8 ,000 per contract. As of last week, they're$24 ,737.50 for one contract.

8:49It's not even the best use of capital. The VIX, which pays five times more, is$20 ,000 per contract. So all of a sudden, two months ago it was gold and everyone wanted the gold move. now became crude. Just like Trump is having a different target for every month, they're going to push a different financial instrument in front of your face every month. You got to stick to the four that you know. And if you haven't traded crude futures before, now is not the time to play.

9:22Let's talk about this. JP Morgan predicts that S &P could fall 10 % because of the Iran war and rising oil prices. So 10 % correction is what JP Morgan is calling for potentially. What do you think? If we fall 10%, it won't be because of the Iran issue solely. We're not talking enough about the private credit market issue. I think this is one of the biggest bubbles that's not being talked about. When I was talking about on Stock Club call, people are asking like, okay, is this a retail issue? Because some retail investors have access to private credit and private equity now. KKR, Apollo, Aries, those are not retail platforms.

10:12Those are institutional. So Blue Isle may be down 63%, which is retail facing. But when you see that Aries BlackRock like BlackRock stopped allowing people to withdraw money without the BlackRock but that's the first canary in a coal mine when you're like oh shit is tougher than what you really think it is and that what it's reporting to be so I think will it be a combination of factors yes but Iran I think is probably the smallest issue on the table right now as to why the stock market would drop. I think there is a lot of issues around the circular investment, private credit, and then also the job market is in shambles and no one wants to talk about it.

10:58And they keep revising these numbers and lying about these numbers. I don't think we have gotten an honest job report in the last two and a half years. Well, that's what I was going to say as far as the job. Yes, there's a variety of different things. The job market is in shambles and it's even worse than what's being reported because you got people that's not even looking for jobs anymore. And then you got a variety of young people that don't even know where to start to look for jobs. So they're not necessarily following unemployment because they just graduated from college and they still just trying to figure it out.

11:32They just at home with their parents, just in the basement watching Andrew Tate all day. Yeah, credit card debt, all-time high. When you look at, I mean, they're quietly about to have another government shutdown. TSA said get to the airport five hours early because they can't pay TSA. Five hours is crazy. You can't even check your bag more than three hours. Housing, this is the first time, I think, in over 10 years, the rate of houses that's being sold right now at like a 10 year low. So that means that people are not spending money on real estate in the same way. Or can afford to. Yeah. I mean, the list goes on.

12:17So domestically, there's a lot of signs that points to a pretty weakening economy for the average person. Yeah, I think I agree with a lot of the points. I agree that, well, first, 10 % is pretty normal. First and foremost, if we pull back 10%, we shouldn't feel like, oh my gosh, our account is about to go to shambles. 10 % would be an actually welcomed correction. I'm U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy. We all get distracted when we drive, whether it's from our phones or kids in the backseat bickering. But how we handle these distractions can be a matter of life or death. Before you get on the road for your next road trip, please put your phones on silent and take a mental note to focus on driving.

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