Inside Caracas: Venezuela after Maduro

0:05Rosie Blau:Thank you.

0:30With no fees or minimums on checking accounts, it's no wonder the Capital One bank guy is so passionate about banking with Capital One. If he were here, he wouldn't just tell you about no fees or minimums. He'd also talk about how most Capital One cafes are open seven days a week to assist with your banking needs. Yep, even on weekends, it's pretty much all he talks about, in a good way. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. See CapitalOne.com slash bank. Capital One N.A. member FDIC.

1:13Rosie Blau:Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm your host, Rosie Bloor. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

1:27Rosie Blau:For decades, he manned Britain's UFO hotline. In a field of wild speculation and fantasy, he set himself up as a man of calm appraisals. Our obituaries editor remembers Nick Pope, who remained open-minded to the very end.

1:53Rosie Blau:But first...

2:03I was recently able to get a visa to Venezuela after many years of trying and came at the last minute. And so I got up there and traveled around the country. And what I found was quite a striking feeling of optimism. A hundred days on, more or less, from the raid by American special forces that seized Nicolas Maduro, then president and strongman of the country.

2:27Rosie Blau:Kinley Salmon is our Latin America correspondent. I tried to get out and about. I got out of the capital, Caracas, to a town called Okumari del Tué, to a political party's meeting, and there were hundreds of jubilant people there. They'd come along, despite this being a traditionally very pro-regime town. And they were all supporters of Maria Karina Machado. She's the Nobel Peace Laureate and also the main opposition leader. She's out of the country right now, having been in hiding for a long time and then having snuck out in an extraordinary journal to go and receive that peace prize in Norway.

3:06And the organisers of this meeting told me they'd all either been essentially in prison or in hiding just months ago before that extraordinary American reign, before that change of reality for every Venezuelan. No one would really have dared to attend these rallies, let alone string up the balloons that were outside the hall. But now with Nicolas Maduro in custody in New York, there were people on stage, the organisers singing lustily.

3:37People told me in the audience, we're no longer afraid, we're full of joy, we're eager to keep fighting. One woman I met there was attending a political event for the first time in her life, and she came along with her daughter. And she told me she finally attended because she wanted to try to help build a better future for her children.

3:58Rosie Blau:So just clarify what's happened in Venezuela then. Maduro was extracted, but the rest of his repressive regime is still in power, isn't it? So why is there this burgeoning of freedom? Well, this is the remarkable thing, really. I mean, there's been 27 years of rule by this socialist-turned-authoritarian Chavismo movement named after its founder, Hugo Chavez. And they are still in charge. The new leader is Dulce Rodriguez, who is Maduro's deputy, and Trump has left her in charge and essentially said, do what I ask or else. And for the most part, she's doing so. But there is a sense that things are changing.

4:36I think this optimism comes from that sense that there's less repression, there's less fear now, despite the regime in some form still being in charge.

4:45Rosie Blau:And what role is America playing? Well, they're very focused on foreign investment, frankly, and on oil, which is Trump's overwhelming priority. So the Americans are pushing for changes to laws on investment, which have already happened. They're pushing for the economy to be liberalized to some degree to advantage American investors. And there's optimism about the economy. I was at the Caracas Country Club, a pretty different world, sparking pool, tennis courts, and people around that pool were frankly pretty bullish. Businessmen think good times are coming. But there's also been pressure, a little bit of pressure, I think, not as much as on the economy, to liberalize politically.

5:24Dulce Rodriguez, the new acting president, has dumped some of Maduro's loyalists. She's even arrested at least one of them. She's brought in some of her own loyalists, but also some technocrats, which is building a little bit of optimism as well. So it's a gradual change, but it is some kind of a change under pressure from the Americans.

5:41Rosie Blau:So it sounds like you're broadly positive about the direction that Venezuela's going in? Well, positive about the direction, certainly, but one shouldn't forget where the country is coming from. I mean, the degree of destruction under this regime of Judaism is hard to overstate. You know, 8 million people, that's about a quarter of the country that has fled since about 2015. That's, I think, the biggest immigration of people outside of a wartime ever. So this is a desperate situation to be starting from. And those problems still remain. Venezuela had about 600 % inflation this February. It has got the world's largest reserves of oil, hence Donald Trump's excitement about it.

6:17But it's had decades of poor management that have made it difficult to extract and profit from that. And there are deep challenges still about liberalizing, about having the rule of law work, not just for investors, but for everyday Venezuelans. And the road back is very long. I don't want to understate how challenging what is ahead really is.

6:40Rosie Blau:As you say, Venezuela has such a long history of repression. How is that playing out in daily life now? Or is it still playing out? We should be clear that there have been changes. There have been about 700 political prisoners that have been released since January, but some 480 are still in prison.

7:06I went along to a candlelit vigil outside the feared Heliocoide prison in Caracas and I spoke with a woman who was crying as she told me the story of her brother who's still in prison She says he's forced to clean excrement from the floors Desperate families there hold photos of their loved ones They're chanting justice and liberty in Spanish

7:32and even some of the people that have been released from prison aren't fully free and i visited the home of maria carino machado's former lawyer that he's still under house arrest he has two guards camped outside his door 24 hours a day they drink coffee that he and his wife provides they rest on mattresses that they also give them use their wi-fi and they knock on the door every three hours. They knock loudly, and what they demand is to take a photo to send to their superiors to show that he's still there. And his wife laughs to me and says, where is he going to go? We're on the 11th floor of an apartment building.

8:12But this kind of grim ritual carries on, and there's no sense, speaking to them, that they're about to be in a relief from that awful situation.

8:20Rosie Blau:And yet, at the same time, people are able to go to these rallies that you attended and announced their support for the opposition. That's right, fear is falling. There was still some caution at some of the political meetings I went to. They were in a hall that had been hired, it was a big venue, but they were checking names at the door to make sure perhaps there wasn't some infiltration. But protests more generally have leapt in number. In January and February there were about 1 ,200 protests of some sort across the country. I went along to one, met a retired teacher who told me we're determined not to leave the streets.

9:00Rosie Blau:So, Kinley, where does Venezuela go next? Well, this is the huge question, to be fair. A lot depends on the Americans. Trump cares about oil and not particularly about elections that would appear. He's praised Dulce Rodriguez, the person running the country now, and has lifted personal sanctions on her. And the regime, may think it's playing for time. They're saying we must focus on the economy. They say, sure, we might have elections sometime, but we need first a big agreement covering not just the political rules of the game, but the social, the economic also need to be agreed on. And only then should elections be held.

9:34But that sort of sounds like a recipe for indefinite procrastination. And that may, of course, be the point. So I think without pressure from the United States, the chances of a real transition can seem quite weak. I was very struck by the extent of expectation among almost all Venezuelans I spoke to, that elections are coming. They have faith in Trump. They have faith in particular in Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, who's said a number of times that there will be elections in Venezuela. And they have perhaps, above all, hope in Maria Karina Machado. She's been outside the country since December.

10:10She snuck out initially on a small boat, a journey that fractured a vertebra to go and receive the Nobel Peace Prize. But wherever she goes abroad, she gains huge crowds. She was recently in Santiago in Chile and she drew 17 ,000 people. She's about to have a big rally in Madrid this weekend. And so she really represents, I think, hope for many people who are looking forward, hopefully, to her being back in Venezuela soon.

10:40Rosie Blau:Kinley, thank you. I actually want to focus now on Maria Karina Machado. You have been jet setting. You've not just been to Venezuela. You've also been just last week to Washington, D.C. to actually meet Machado. Tell me what she was like. Well, that's right. I met her in her temporary offices in D.C., which are conspicuously pretty close to the White House. And she is, I would say, above all, formidable. She is clearly an extraordinarily determined person. She is evidently very brave, as her campaign and her time in hiding and her escape really underline. She was very warm, she was very possible and casual in a way, but she also has a hard etch.

11:24And at times when challenged, she was willing to push back pretty vigorously on the premise of my questions.

11:30Rosie Blau:So what was up for discussion? Well, I started by asking her how she understands this very bizarre kind of political moment in Venezuela. This is the moment in which the regime is the weakest in its history. And it's the moment in which our people are closest, united and determined than ever. So does she think that there's a chance that there could be an election in Venezuela and she might actually find a way to power? She does. She certainly does. And I asked her, how do you make that happen? Today is very different. And you know why? Because January 3rd represented a point of inflection because the regime was faced with a real credible threat that made them understand this time is different.

12:22Rosie Blau:It's all very well saying all of this, but how is she going to make it happen? She can't, can she? I mean, it's a very difficult road, and I don't think she can make it happen on her own. She needs American support, if not explicitly for her, but for a democratic transition and real elections. But she does think she has some tools in her toolkit that she can pull on. She wants to make the case that postponing elections is riskier for instability than having them. I believe the voice of the people should be heard peacefully. Civically and strongly. And sometimes the voices of those that might be comfortable with the status quo are the ones that are heard.

13:13But that's not what Venezuelan people truly want. And that's very risky. She comes back again and again to the voice of the people, the role of the people being a crucial player. And she sounds like she wants to harness that voice of the people and the support they have for her to add pressure for elections once she's back in Venezuela. Postponing an election is actually very risky. If people get impatient, these tensions could get out of a civic channel. And having an election will unite the society and give certainty to people and to investors.

13:58Rosie Blau:Is that realistic, Kinley, to expect a democratic election after quite an undemocratic removal of the head of state? Many people find it very difficult to imagine that Delcio Rodriguez would hand over directly to Maria Karina Machado because of her strong condemnations of the regime with great clarity over a long time. And because, in short, they fear her. And many people had said to me in Caracas that maybe what's needed as a candidate would be somehow more palatable to the regime, who they'd be less afraid to lose to. Well, she was not particularly impressed with that argument, one could say.

14:35Well, once again, who chooses? the leadership in Venezuela? Delcy Rodriguez or the people of Venezuela? You know, I've heard that so many times. That was the argument why many did not want me to run in the primaries. I want a primary process with 92 % of the votes. So let's forget about what the people think, and let's have business people or the diplomatic community or the regime choose who should be the president of Venezuela. So much for democracy. In Venezuela, there is this really wide expectation that elections are coming. And you can see even members of the regime, they want to delay, but there's a sort of implication that at some point they'll have to go to the polls.

15:23And some people told me they think the strategy is to try to boost up the economy and then they might even think they can win an election, which seems hard to believe, but that may be the plan.

15:32Rosie Blau:Where does America come into all of that? America is absolutely fundamental. And a lot of the expectation that there will be elections comes from the idea that although Trump may be a bit flaky on the question of elections, there will be enough pressure. We actually saw very recently Chris Wright, the Energy Secretary who has visited Venezuela, saying publicly that he hoped and expected elections would happen in Trump's term. That might sound vague, but that's the first specific timing we've really had. So there's a sense that elections are going to come, but there's a big question on the exact timing.

16:05And Xi, Maria Corina Machado, wants them to happen really as quickly as possible, but admits there will be some preparations needed. What we have estimated is that from a technical perspective, this would take approximately 40 weeks. So we have to start right away. That's our position.

16:26Rosie Blau:Surely there are still huge risks, though. Countless regimes have found ways to cling on, even through supposedly fair and open elections. That is, of course, a very serious risk, a real possibility. There's a question of having an election that seems moderately fair, and I think there she puts faith in international actors and in getting these kind of technical changes to the electoral body and things to happen before the election. There's also a question of just, will they actually hand over the power? They lost in July 2024 the regime and they just didn't. She's quite concerned about this and she speaks about still the need for there to be justice and a counter body for people in the regime.

17:04Certain individuals that are willing to cooperate and facilitate will certainly have different conditions than those that insist in exercise and violence and repression. But she also talks in a way about the need for the regime to fail gracefully, to have some easing out. And a lot of people in Caracas talk to me about that as well. So certainly we need to move ahead into a process in which there are guarantees and some compromises will be made. Yes. And the Venezuelan people, I'm sure, will agree with those compromises as long as they really trust the leadership who is representing them in those agreements.

17:57Rosie Blau:So, Kinney, I've already asked you what next for Venezuela, but what next for Machado? Well, the big question is when she goes back. Donald Trump has leaned on her to delay, but she is itching to get back. And that will be a huge moment because people are going to want to come out to see her. The regime is going to be quite possibly in a difficult position of having to repress protests on a big scale in front of the world's media or letting some kind of rally happen and looking impotent and unpopular. That will be a crunch point. We don't know exactly when it will be, but that could be the beginning of a turn or it could be a beginning of us seeing that actually the American pressure for democracy is not as strong as everyone hopes and believes.

18:44Thank you. And I just want to assure you that Venezuela will be free soon. Machado herself is confident and has what almost feels like a deep faith that things are going to work out. and will turn it into a land of grace, la tierra de gracia, in which our children will come back and huge opportunities for all will flourish.

19:10Rosie Blau:Kinley, thank you very much. Thank you.

19:28Rosie Blau:Tomorrow on the Weekend Intelligence, we travel to Da Nang in Vietnam to meet the Passport Bros, Western men going abroad seeking relationships with more traditional women. They call it the ultimate life hack, a way to bypass the struggles of modern dating. But online, the movement starts to sound like the angriest corners of the manosphere, where dating struggles morph into broader grievances about Western women. This is a must listen. You'll need to be a subscriber.

20:25Rosie Blau:The UK is engineered for growth. Start your investment journey at business.gov.uk forward slash growth. With no fees or minimums on checking accounts, it's no wonder the Capital One bank guy is so passionate about banking with Capital One. If he were here, he wouldn't just tell you about no fees or minimums. He'd also talk about how most Capital One cafes are open seven days a week to assist with your banking needs. Yep, even on weekends, it's pretty much all he talks about. In a good way. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. See CapitalOne.com slash bank. Capital One N.A. Member FDIC.