One peace at a time: hopeful Gaza talks

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1:14Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Rosie Bloor. And I'm Jason Palmer. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

1:28New Yorkers are obsessed with the housing market. Since the rights of renters changed, evictions are down and occupancy is up. Sound good? Well, yes, if you already have an apartment. Those wanting to find a new place may find things a little harder. And Kim Seung Min escaped from North Korea not once, but twice. Our obituaries editor recounts his onward career as a poet and broadcaster, sending news to his former countrymen of the bright, untold life on the other side of the border.

2:05But first...

2:14We've been here so many times before, negotiators gathering to put an end to the war in Gaza. But this time, the scene is a little different. There's exhaustion, exasperation, on the part of Israelis, of Hamas, and certainly of Palestinians. The appetite for a short-term peace is perhaps as high as it's yet been, and the Trump administration seems to be seizing on it. The long-term view for Gaza, though? It's still hazy. This could be the make-or-break round of talks to end the war. Anshul Pfeffer is The Economist's Israel correspondent. Talks are beginning today. In Egypt, they've been very hastily convened.

2:59Trump has sent both his Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff, who usually turns up towards the end of the talks. So this time he's coming at the beginning, And I think that means that as one American diplomat said to me, he wants to babysit this and make sure that it gets to the finishing line. And another intriguing figure is Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's son-in-law, who was the Mideast envoy in the previous Trump administration, hasn't made an appearance until now. I think the fact that he's here as well is very much a signal of how Trump is pushing and sees this from his perspective as the round which has to make it.

3:42And since last we spoke, how do we get to this point? I think we need to go four weeks back to when Israel carried out an airstrike on the Qatari capital of Doha. It was a botched airstrike. It didn't manage to assassinate the leaders of Hamas who were convening there. They killed a son of one of the leaders and some aides and bodyguards, but the Hamas leadership managed to escape. But what they did was that Israel, by striking Qatar, which is another key ally of America in the region, I think that really changed everything for Donald Trump. I think he suddenly realized that this war is not just a tragedy for the people of Gaza and for Israelis for two years now.

4:23and also risk spiralling out and drawing in other allies of America in the region. So I think he doesn't want to see more things like that happening and disrupting his Middle East agenda. And that seems to have been when he started really pushing for there to be some kind of grand plan to end this war. And then last Monday, finally, Netanyahu came to the White House and the plan was unveiled there with him. So tell me about the plan as it stands, how it's supposed to play out as laid out at the moment. So the first items on the agenda of the talks this week are the immediate steps that need to happen in Gaza.

5:04The cessation of military operations by Israel and by Hamas. A very partial withdrawal of Israeli forces out of the remaining cities and towns of Gaza. They'll still be in large parts of the Gaza Strip. They won't actually be in the cities. a release of the 48 Israeli hostages who have now been held by Hamas in Gaza for two years, and in return Israel will release nearly 2 ,000 Palestinian prisoners, and the enter of aid into Gaza. Now all those things have to be dealt with in this first stage, and they're at the center of the talks this week in Egypt. And at this stage, for the reasons you mentioned and more, there is a considerable appetite on both sides for at least that first phase to be carried out?

5:46Well, Israel certainly wants to carry this out because it wants its hostages back. And the Israeli army is certainly exhausted after two years of fighting, would like to be able to draw down its forces in Gaza to release a lot of reservists. Now, on the Hamas side, obviously, they also want an end to the war because they've been under constant bombardment for two years. And their own constituents, the people of Gaza, are demanding this as well. We're seeing this more and more vocally. But at the same time, for them, for Hamas to give up their bargaining chips, and I know it sounds very crude to talk about hostages as bargaining chips, but that's the leverage that they currently have.

6:25They are going to ask for some very major guarantees, mainly from Donald Trump, that this won't be just them giving up the hostages and then Israel will resume operations. They want something ironclad, which will say to them that this will continue to the further stages. And so about the further stages, what happens after those first immediate steps? So the question is, what happens in Gaza after the ceasefire? Once there is no more military operations and when the hostage issue has been solved, and aid is going in, so there isn't the immediate threat of famine anymore. Who takes control of Gaza?

7:00Now, there's supposed to be a technocrat's government. Nobody knows exactly who's going to sit on this government, which is supposed to deal with the civilian affairs in the interim period. and there's supposed to be an international stabilization force, which is some kind of vague peacekeeping force. Nobody knows yet which countries are going to send soldiers to this, but they're the ones who are supposed to be in charge of security. And the key element of this stage is Hamas's disarmament. Now, when does Hamas turn in its arms? Which of its arms does it turn in? Who does it hand them over to?

7:32Will they hand them over to an international force or will there be some kind of Palestinian group, perhaps a fascinating authority of taking some kind of receivership over these weapons. And this is a big issue, not just because Hamas wants to keep access to some of its weapons, but it's also their identity as a resistance organization, as they call themselves. How can you be a resistance organization if you're giving up your weapons? So this is a very thorny issue, which some of it I think will be addressed this week, but I think a lot of it will be left for another round of talks. So, Anshul, over the course of the war, we have ended many segments with the notion that there's only one man who can actually make a difference here, and it is Donald Trump, that the impasse wouldn't be broken until Mr.

8:15Trump did something substantive. It would appear at this stage anyway that that may, in fact, be the way that it goes. His change of heart or tone might actually be the difference here. Yes, I mean, we have ended so many of these podcasts on the note that only Donald Trump can change things. And I think we really have to look at what he did on Friday. That was a fascinating moment because this plan and elements of this plan have been around for over a year now. Joe Biden presented similar plans. Trump and Witkoff were presenting something similar at the beginning of the year. It happened now because I think Donald Trump said on Friday when Hamas gave that very qualified, very half-hearted response, which was perhaps a yes, but a yes with a massive butt coming after it.

9:01He didn't wait for Netanyahu to say, oh, obviously Hamas is saying no, and for other pundits to weigh in and say Hamas is kiboshing this. He said, yes, the Hamas response is wonderful, and this means that everybody wants peace, and we can go ahead. And what's happened here is that this plan has been around, but you've had both sides, Israelis and Hamas, stuck with their narrative of how they want and need to win this war. And Trump has said, OK, I'm never going to bridge your narratives. I'm going to impose my new narrative. My new narrative is everybody wants peace. Everybody is now working for peace.

9:37And if you dare contradict me, then you're in trouble. and that's why we have just in the space of days all these teams and all these mediators in a hotel in Sharmah Sheikh at what looks like it could be the crunch moment for ending this war. Anshul, thanks very much for joining us as ever. Thank you for having me, Jason. I hope next time we can talk about the ceasefire something has already happened.

10:12This podcast is sponsored by Made In Cookware. Made In partners with multi-generational artisans and some of the world's best chefs to create professional quality cookware, knives, and kitchen tools. Their products are trusted in Michelin-starred restaurants worldwide and designed to perform just as well in your kitchen. From five-ply stainless clad to carbon steel, every piece is built to last and made to actually make you a better cook. Discover award-winning cookware at madeincookware.com.

11:08Every day I sit with my senior colleagues who've spoken with some of the world's brightest minds and most important decision makers. We take what they've learned and thrash out The Economist's editorial line. Now I'd like to invite you inside those conversations and debates. This Thursday, we're launching a new video show, The Insider, filmed in our brand new, very swanky studio in London. I will be hosting alongside our deputy editor, Edward Carr. and each week you can watch me and my senior editors and correspondents hone the paper's position on the world's biggest stories. We'll also bring you conversations with some of the world's most interesting people, people who agree with us and also people who don't.

11:49And we'll dissect what they have to say as a team before releasing the full interviews for you to watch. It's serious conversations between me and my colleagues and between us and some of the world's most interesting minds. The Insider will be available on our app and website from 6pm London time, 1pm New York, Thursday the 9th of October. Of course, you can also watch it on demand later. It's free at launch for full subscribers. So if you're not one yet, please consider signing up. For now, thank you for your support and back to Jason and Rosie.

12:35New Yorkers are a diverse bunch. Stevie Hertz is our US policy correspondent. But since I moved to the city a few years ago, it's clear that one thing unites them like nothing else. Not pizza or hating rats. Talking about housing. The topic has dominated New York's mayoral election, which is on November 5th. Should we stop? You have my commitment. The Democratic candidate Zoran Mamdani has made a slogan out of the topic, making that promise to freeze the rent on 50 % of flats that are under some form of price control. Other candidates have put together their own housing plans. But in recent years, one area of New York City's rental market has already changed.

13:24So what's already changed, Stevie? Last year, New York City had the lowest apartment vacancy rate in nearly 60 years. Flats are really fully occupied. But despite that tremendous demand, landlords filed 50 % fewer eviction cases than in 2016. And the evictions that are actually carried out are also down. And this is kind of a sign that the new rights and procedures and guidelines over the last decade has worked to transform the eviction space. So how had evictions become such a big deal in New York? In New York City, almost 70 % of households rent. And a decade ago, one in 10 renters in the city faced eviction proceedings every year.

14:07That's a tremendous bureaucratic hassle. It involves going to court and finding paperwork. And it's really time consuming for tenants and landlords alike. But evictions are also really costly in human, social and financial terms. After being evicted, renters' incomes are likely to fall, they're more likely to become homeless, they're even more likely to go to accident and emergency. The impact on any kids involved in an eviction is terrible, has the same impact on their high school graduation rates as being in juvenile incarceration. And for landlords, it's not easy either. Evictions can cost the equivalent of two to three months rent in lawyers' fees and courts' fees, and that doesn't include the vacancy gap when the flat then sits empty as landlords look for a new tenant.

14:48So getting evictions down can kind of be a win-win for almost everyone involved. And how was the city able to do that? It was really a series of changes that added up together to transform the landscape. So the first big change came in 2017, when the city introduced a right to getting a lawyer for poor tenants who were involved in eviction proceedings. And that was followed in 2019 by a new tenants' rights law that was passed by the state. And this had a really big effect. So before these laws were passed, just 1 % of tenants had a lawyer, compared to 95 % of landlords during eviction proceedings.

15:22So on paper, the tenants had all sorts of legal protections and legal rights, but without a lawyer, they couldn't really necessarily make use of them. And getting tenants all lawyered up, it also helped deter landlords from filing frivolous eviction cases. And it saved everyone from the hassle and the bureaucracy of going to court and dealing with them. And then the 2019 Tenants Rights Law, one lawyer told me it really changed the landscape for tenants. It reduced the reasons why they could be evicted. It introduced more rent controls in various different apartments. And then that was followed up by a new law that was passed by the state last year that guaranteed most tenants to get to renew their leases.

16:00And it further limited rent increases. Stevie, it's incredibly rare to hear a good news story when it comes to renting and reducing evictions. Are there lessons here for other cities? Yeah, I think the right to counsel shows how important helping tenants make use of the rights they already have can be. The trouble with this is that there is a bit of a trade-off. Existing tenants, existing New Yorkers are definitely better off. But newcomers or those who are having to move might find it a little bit harder. It's inevitable that these things do end up increasing landlords' costs. If it's harder, if it takes longer to kick out tenants for whatever reason, that will eventually be passed on in some way.

16:43So it might make landlords more cautious about renting. I spoke to some landlords groups who said they were screening tenants more closely now because they know it will be harder to kick them out if they feel they want to for whatever reason. And so that could lead to discriminatory practices. Other studies found that happened during the pandemic when there was an eviction moratorium that led to discriminatory screening. And then if you do make it harder and slower to kick people out, it can lead to back rents piling up. And that kind of really hurts some smaller landlords. We saw this in Washington, D.C.

17:14recently, where evictions were made trickier. And now the city's having to roll back those changes because they're worried about affordable housing disappearing. And so all these questions come with a trade-off. But that being said, going from a place where one in 10 faced eviction proceedings every year to really cutting that down, that's a real win for a lot of people. Stevie, thanks so much for talking to me. Thank you.

18:01Kim Sung-min simply couldn't shake the shackle off. Anne Rowe is The Economist's obituaries editor. At the other end of it, there was a North Korean officer who was taking him back to North Korea to public execution because he had left the country without permission, and he was an army captain. How was he going to get away from him? The train was creeping very slowly through North Korea. Meanwhile, Kim Jong-nin was plotting to try to get away The official had to come with him everywhere Even when he went to the lavatory And over three days this lavatory was getting in a worse and worse state The time came when his guard decided he really didn't want to go in anymore He took his shackle off And that meant that Kim Jong-nin was a free man However, how to get out of the train?

19:04Well, he had noticed that in the lavatory, the window only had a wood frame. And so he swung up on a beam and kicked out the glass. Luckily, the train was not going, had much speed at all. And luckily, too, he landed in a lovely soft earth, just turned field. At that point, he was able to get up and run away.

19:37This was his second escape. His first escape from North Korea had been the usual route of fording the Yellow River and going into China. But he was very soon picked up then by the Chinese police, and then they handed him to the North Korean authorities and put him on that train. His second escape, with the jump out of the window, was much more successful. He had to live in China for about three years, work in a factory, but gradually he managed to get the right counterfeit papers and just put himself on a flight to Seoul, the capital of South Korea, and he arrived there like any ordinary businessman.

20:22But in fact, he was a defector from North Korea, and his purpose in South Korea was very different, it was to speak the truth to his countrymen back home. He had wanted to leave for various reasons. The most difficult thing was that every so often he'd come out of his tent in the morning and find the ground white with leaflets which had been dropped by South Korean planes. And these leaflets were telling all sorts of strange facts, such as that in South Korea there was plenty of food and that carb reduction was extremely high. He queried this because he'd always been told that South Korea was a ghastly poverty-stricken place.

21:10Of course, actually the real famine was in North Korea. He'd seen vivid signs of that himself. He'd seen corpses piled up outside a railway station writhing with maggots. He'd seen the despair on the faces of the people, but it was these leaflets that really started to sow doubts in his mind.

21:37He'd never been very happy in the army because he had always wanted to be a poet, as his father was, and he decided in 24 that he would set up a radio station to broadcast about freedom to his countrymen. He had a tiny team, almost all of them North Koreans, and they were using pseudonyms so they wouldn't be picked up by the authorities in Pyongyang. The fact that they were nearly all North Koreans was very useful to the station, though, because it meant that when North Koreans dared and managed to tune into it, they found voices very like their own speaking in their dialect. And that intrigued them.

22:21They felt they were talking to friends. And they were intrigued very much by the views of South Korea that they heard on this radio station. For example, that food really was incredibly plentiful, that when you turned your taps on, you got not only cold running water, but you got hot running water as well, even in people's homes. All this amazingly impressed them, as it had impressed Kim Jong-min when he had arrived.

22:52his poetry revealed how he was missing North Korea how he remembered the flowers on the mountains the shinies of his sister he especially evoked his mother who would knit late at night and he felt that he had laid a handful of dirt on her he had deliberately obscured her And he reflected that there were some ties that were harder to shake off than a shackle that bound you to a North Korean official on a train. There were some ties that wouldn't be broken at all.

23:36Anne Roh on Kim Seong-min, who's died aged 63.

23:48Thank you.

24:17Regime. Just wind back in the feed a tiny bit and have a listen, and we'll see you back here tomorrow.

24:36This podcast is sponsored by Made in Cookware. Made in partners with multi-generational artisans and some of the world's best chefs to create professional quality cookware, knives, and kitchen tools. Their products are trusted in Michelin-starred restaurants worldwide and designed to perform just as well in your kitchen. From five-ply stainless clad to carbon steel, every piece is built to last and made to actually make you a better cook. Discover award-winning cookware at MadeInCookware.com.