Strike fear: Iran’s protests and Israel

0:00Host:There's one place for the newest drops in wellness and performance and the biggest sale of the year. It's the drop by GNC, curating the best of what's new, handpicked by the pros who know what works. And right now, get it all, buy one, get one 50 % off during the semi-annual LiveWell sale. From crushing workouts to leveling up your nutrition and everything in between, get the best deals on the latest innovations. All the newness is all on sale right now during the LiveWell sale on the drop by GNC. If you work in university maintenance, Grainger considers you an MVP because your playbook ensures your arena is always ready for tip-off.

0:38Host:And Grainger is your trusted partner, offering the products you need all in one place, from HVAC and plumbing supplies to lighting and more. And all delivered with plenty of time left on the clock, so your team always gets the win. Call 1-800-GRAINGER, visit grainger.com, or just stop by. Grainger, for the ones who get it done.

1:05Host:The Economist

1:12Host:Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Jason Palmer. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

1:26Host:There's a whole graduating class coming in 2026 that will have had generative AI at its fingertips for the whole of its college education. We ask how those grads will fare in the workplace and how the workplace is likely to change to accommodate them. And pensions in Europe are a fiscal time bomb as demographics change, Ensuring them up by changing retirement ages or benefits is politically dangerous. We look at what must and what might happen to fend off crises across the continent.

2:05But first...

2:13Host:In Iran, the authorities are using an ever-heavier hand to suppress the protests we were talking about on Friday. Across the country, cities and towns, demonstrators are being mowed down. 490, according to a Washington-based human rights group. That's almost certainly an undercount. We've said this before, I know, but what's going on inside Iran really is different this time, which makes for a different dynamic outside it, in particular for its principal rival in the region. People ask me during the war, is your goal regime change? And I said, no, it's not. But it could be the consequence of the war if we were successful.

2:57Binyamin Netanyahu:And we were successful. On Thursday, we interviewed Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel. When I say we, my bosses, editor-in-chief Zannie Minton-Beddoes and deputy editor Ed Carr, I was there as well in the prime minister's office studio in Jerusalem.

3:15Host:Anshul Pfeffer is The Economist's Israel correspondent.

3:19Binyamin Netanyahu:Naturally, we wanted to ask Netanyahu about the protests, which were already then gripping Iran. Since then, the protests have intensified and we have a lot of evidence of very violent suppression by the Iranian authorities. Reports of hundreds of people already killed across Iran. My shootings, there's a real question mark looming over the future of the regime. That was one of the main issues which we talked within an hour about. And it's obviously being followed very closely here in Israel as well.

3:54Host:What do you mean by that? What do Israelis or what do the Israeli leadership make of those protests?

4:00Binyamin Netanyahu:Well, the Israeli leadership is very concerned that this may also spiral out to an attack, perhaps even another war between Israel and Iran. We're just seven months after the 12-day war back in June between Israel and Iran. And in many ways, this is connected to the protests. The protesters are there because of the economic situation and the lack of democracy in Iran. But a lot of observers who have spoken to are saying that something happened in June in this war, which Israel achieved dominance of the skies over on pretty quickly. And this may have, in a way, broken something of the barrier of fear that kept people from protesting against the regime.

4:45Host:And so now the Israelis are watching those protests quite closely.

4:48Binyamin Netanyahu:But while obviously our main focus of intelligence services and governments around the world is on those protests taking place on the streets, the Israelis are looking at more remote places in Iran, the places where missile launchers are being prepared. And there are indications of preparations happening there.

5:10Host:So I'm still a little unclear on what the Israeli fears are here. Iran has its own problems at home. What's in it for them to sort of retaliate now about what happened in June?

5:21Binyamin Netanyahu:So there'll be a number of reasons why the Iranian regime may want to launch a strike right now. For a start, this perhaps could be something which would avert the attention or perhaps even rally the Iranian people around the regime. Another war with Israel. When you have problems at home, you cast around for an external enemy. There is also the fear of an Iranian miscalculation. the Iranians are themselves very much concerned that Israel will try again to strike their country and to destroy the remaining missile launchers, the remaining components of the nuclear program. And if they fear that that is something that is about to happen, they want to put in a preemptive strike first.

6:02Binyamin Netanyahu:And then there's the lingering frustrations of the Iranian regime from this war that they didn't succeed in stopping Israel from attacking their main strategic sites. They didn't really succeed in landing a serious blow on Israel despite firing over 500 missiles. And therefore there's an expectation that at some point Iran will try to restore its own deterrence and restore its military pride. There's also a worry in Israel that if the United States, as Donald Trump has been threatening in recent days, does attack Iran in some way, Trump has said that if Iran continues shooting at protesters, he will do something very painful to Iran, then Iranians will have to retaliate to that.

6:46Binyamin Netanyahu:And the easiest way for them to retaliate would be hitting one of America's allies in the region. These are all reasons why Israel is concerned that this could actually be the moment when Iran, despite the regime being very much embattled now at home, may try to take an opportunity and attack abroad.

7:03Host:But what about the prospect of Israel using this opportunity, conversely to finish the job that started in June, for example.

7:12Binyamin Netanyahu:Well, we saw just two weeks ago when Netanyahu visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago that he was basically egging Trump on to support Israel if such a strike was needed. Trump delivered on that.

7:24Host:Now I hear that Iran is trying to build up again, and if they are, we're going to have to knock them down. We'll knock them down, we'll knock the hell out of them, but hopefully that's not happening.

7:33Binyamin Netanyahu:So there is American backing for that, And we know that Israel does see this as something that will have to be done in the future. But the question really is the timing. And I don't think from what I've been hearing from Israeli sources that Israel is quite prepared now in the next days or weeks for such an attack, mainly because Israel is still replenishing its own missile defense and interceptors. I don't think they want to do it quite now. So it was interesting to note the differences between Netanyahu two weeks ago in Mar-a-Lago and Netanyahu in our interview with him on Thursday.

8:06Host:Well, exactly that. What did Mr. Netanyahu say when you were sat down with him last week, specifically on this question about Iran?

8:12Binyamin Netanyahu:Well, anyone who's ever seen a Netanyahu interview or Netanyahu's speech knows that he's very, very quick to get to Iran. And Iran is his main bugbear and has been for many years. And what was interesting in our interview with him on Thursday is that he didn't seem that eager to speak about Iran. He didn't bring it up. Zannie and Ed brought it up. And when they asked him about Trump's recent statements about Iran, his threats to attack Iran, if they do shoot at the protesters, interestingly, he didn't even endorse that strike. Do you think that's a good idea? And do you think that there should be outside pressure now for regime change?

8:50Host:I think there is pressure. Everybody wants to see that. But I said, I was asked about that, and I said, I'll tell you one definite time when we would resume our military activities. If Iran attacks us, which they might, then there will be horrible consequences for Iran. That's a definite. Everything else, I think we should see what is happening inside Iran.

9:13Binyamin Netanyahu:We've had this strange situation, which Netanyahu for so many years has been urging American leaders to get tough on Iran. and now for the first time we have the president of the United States saying much tougher things than Netanyahu himself is saying. Beyond that, he was almost reluctant to threaten Iran.

9:30Host:And it may be a moment where the people of Iran take charge of their own destiny. Revolutions are best done from within.

9:37Binyamin Netanyahu:In other words, perhaps America and perhaps other countries shouldn't be interfering right now. We should let things work themselves out in Iran. And this is something that I've spoken with Israeli officials in recent days, that the policy currently is to lower the Israeli profile and for it not to be seen as if Israel is in any way interfering in the internal issues within Iran.

10:00Host:So that would suggest that Mr. Netanyahu is trying to head off that miscalculation you were talking about before. If Iran feels less threatened, it is less likely to attempt what it thinks is a first strike.

10:10Binyamin Netanyahu:Yes, I mean, it's clear that Netanyahu hasn't abandoned his plans to destroy Iran's nuclear and missile programs and he talked about the threat that they pose. It's akin to somebody who has horrible cancer,

10:23Host:the attempt to build atomic weapons, and the other is the attempt to build 20 ,000 ballistic missiles. So we had to take it out. But when you take out these lumps of cancer, and certain types of lumps of cancer can reappear. If you don't take it out, you'll die.

10:38Binyamin Netanyahu:But right now he wants whatever is happening in Iran, if it's mass protests, if it's perhaps even a regime change and revolution, to play out before there is possibly another round of warfare between Israel and Iran.

10:51Host:So extremely uncertain, obviously, as you say, but how do you think Israel might hope it can turn the situation to its advantage?

10:59Binyamin Netanyahu:Well, there are three types of threats and also perhaps gains that Israel can have here. I think the most immediate concern is what we've mentioned already, the ballistic missiles. The nuclear program currently is dormant, but the missiles that have begun to rebuild them, this is an immediate concern. If, for example, law and order breaks down in Iran or parts of Iran descend into anarchy, then what happens to these very dangerous weapons and this nuclear program? And this is also something that the regime perhaps could use in a deal with the Americans to reduce the pressure. And we already saw last night that Donald Trump said that the Iranians have talked to him about reaching some kind of a deal.

11:37Binyamin Netanyahu:So these are assets that are in play. Then the next type of concern is iran's regional network of proxies which has been hit very hard by israel the last couple of years but it's still there and iran which will have to focus much more now inwards both on trying to maintain order in iran and on rebuilding the iranian economy simply won't have the money or the attention spent to continue building and and maintaining this network and that study for israel would be a major gain and then there's a i think the longer term issue that That is where Iran fits in the region. Now, if you go back before the Iranian revolution in 1979, Iran was Israel's probably most important ally in the region.

12:20Binyamin Netanyahu:Two regional powers, non-Arab, the Iranians aren't Arabs, obviously, and they had a very good relationship with Israel. Israel bought most of its oil from Iran up until the end of the 1970s. Iran put a lot of weapons and other types of technological know-how from Israel. All that ended in 1979 when Khomeini came to power with the Islamic Republic. But you speak to a lot of people who were around in those days. They don't see a reason why that kind of alliance can't exist again. Now, this is not something that's going to happen in days or weeks, even if the regime does fall. But I think it is a long-term eventuality that we can look towards, certainly as the desired result for Israel.

13:05Host:Anshul, thanks very much for your time.

13:07Binyamin Netanyahu:Thank you as ever for having me, Jason.

13:36Host:Click the link in the show notes for more.

14:06Host:and everything in between get the best deals on the latest innovations. All the newness is all on sale right now during the Live Well sale on The Drop by GNC. Are you noticing your car insurance rate creep up even without tickets or claims? You're not alone. That's why there's Jerry, your proactive insurance assistant.