Can Andy Burnham make Britain believe again?

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0:43Oh! I think a murder just happened on this podcast.

0:47Harriet Harman: I have previously talked about how lovely Harriet Hartman is. So nice. If you had your economic indicator flashboard, everything's flashing red for him. So absolutely, they've got to be clamped down on. He's got to mention immigration.

1:10Hello and welcome to Electoral Dysfunction with me, Beth Rigby. Me, Ruth Davidson. And me, Harriet Harman. And we are back from New York, baby. We're back from the UN General Assembly. I didn't have any cocktails. Harriet and I did not manage to meet up, but it was a fascinating whirlwind trip for me, for my part. That 24 hours in New York told me certainly a lot about Andy Burnham and how he intends to run his government. And Harriet, how did you find it? Were you hanging out with Ed Miliband, not me? I think you were, weren't you? I did bump into our new foreign secretary who looked as though he was really living his best life.

1:51And the thing is, I think it's hard not to live your best life at the UN in New York City, to think all the countries of the world are there. So, you know, you can talk to the Chinese, the Japanese, the South Americans, you can talk to tech executives. I mean, it is an amazing, phenomenal thing. And of course, it's in New York City, which is fantastic. And I walk 10 ,000 steps every day because all the streets are closed down because of security. So you've got to walk. And Harriet, we didn't get that cocktail at the UN, but I'm certain, I'm certain that you and I are going to have one soon because we're planning our big ED night out at the end of November.

2:33And you are all invited, all of our lovely dysfunctioners, you are invited to our big night out.

2:41Harriet Harman: Now, I think you're talking about our live show that's coming to London, Beth. Maybe you've got other ideas for you and Harriet for a night out in the town and you've not invited me. No, no, I would never exclude you, Ruth. Thank you very much. I know I live in the far frozen north but I still, I will turn up for booze. I get you a frozen margarita, you see. Oh, no, tequila does bad things to me and I do bad things on tequila. That's not my base spirit, I have to say. I'm definitely giving you tequila next time then. But if the venue allows for it, we'll come out and have a drink with all the audience members after our live show.

3:11Harriet Harman: Just a reminder, it's Thursday the 26th of November. Our members get access to tickets from Monday. So that's Monday morning, get on your computer, you can access the tickets from there. You'll get a discount if you're a member. The secret code is going to be in this week's newsletter and the members then have two weeks to access the tickets before the general sale starts on Friday the 9th of October. And we will remind you about it closer to the time. All the details are in the show notes for this episode and members will get an email when the tickets go live on Monday. But shall we get on with the episode now?

3:43Harriet Harman: I think we should because We're going to talk about Andy Burnham because obviously it wasn't just the pay review that were running around New York not having cocktails. The prime minister was also there. Pretty big deal for a prime minister. We're going to talk about Andy Burnham's, the fact he's got a big week. So, you know, starting off with the UN in New York, meeting Donald Trump, having a sit down. I think his team's probably quite happy with how it went in that, you know, there was no massive gaffes or fallouts. But also looking ahead to the party conference as well because he's got his first party conference as prime minister.

4:12Harriet Harman: so there's going to be a lot riding on his speech there as well and kind of resetting what the difference really is between a Starmer and a Burnham government and what the country can expect from him but if we start sort of in what's gone behind Beth before we shoot forward to what's about to come you were with Andy Burnham you were sort of practically sitting on his lap on the plane there on the way back all the way through the week I mean you've seen a lot of these Prime Ministers up close How do you reckon he did? God, I mean, honestly, Ruth, it was such a short trip in the sense that we landed in New York at 10pm New York time and we flew back out of New York 11pm New York time.

4:56But it felt like I learned a lot in 24 hours. And honestly, I got thoughts coming out of my ears about all of the things I think about that period and what it told me about Andy Burnham. but I'll just turn into a massive bore if I just spew all of my thoughts. But just a couple of things. I think firstly on his manner and how he carried himself. My big sort of takeaway from watching him with Trump at the UN, giving his speech, how he was with the journalists on the plane, how he was just wandering around the event and the venue, because I bumped into him a few times, you know, going in between things, is that if you kind of thought, oh, Andy Burnham, there's going to be no sense of change.

5:43This is a reincarnation of another Labour administration. I was left under no impression that this will feel different. Andy Burnham does feel different. And it does feel now, as I'm seeing him really gear up like a break, in terms of just how he carried himself. Just on the plane with the journalists, he kind of came up, he was very friendly. Not that Starmer wasn't, but he was, you know, he's like, it's really nice that you've all joined me on the trip. You don't normally get that from a prime minister. But he sat down and he tried to really answer questions in a way that everyone, he took about 24, 25 questions.

6:22And all of the journalists afterwards said, wow, that was different. He sort of answered the questions and he really does say what he thinks. And also if he doesn't want to answer the question, he'll say that's for another time. So there were lots of areas where I was like, well, that's interesting. One, which we didn't really touch on in our coverage of the United Nations, but I think we will in coming weeks, is he certainly left open the door to put him rejoining the European Union back in a Labour manifesto in the future. He was asked again about what he thought about banning alcohol on the stands of football.

6:56And he said it just doesn't seem fair when cricket supporters or rugby supporters get to have a pint on the stands. And he said that he wants to look at it again on a trial basis. He didn't shy away from what he thought. And then, you know, on the more substantive stuff around the policy on the West Bank, he was asked about that in front of Trump. He did not shy away from what he thought. So I think the manner is different. And then I think on the substance of some of the policy areas, he's willing to say what he thinks. And then just finally, and then I promise I will shut up. In terms of throwing it forward, Ruth, to party conference, the contours of what we're going to hear next week, I think, were laid out in how he approached both that Trump summit, but also how he talked about the decades since Brexit, a lost decade.

7:47He talked about the disruption to the country. He talked about wanting to turn the page on that last decade to restore stability, rebalance power, put it back in the hands of people and to quote him, reach towards something better for the decade ahead. Now, there's lots of complexity in that. There's lots of things, Ruth, where I know you're going to say, yeah, yeah, but, but he didn't do this. He didn't do that. But he framed it as really that speech, an attack on Russia, an attack on allowing disinformation and wanting to change that. He talked about wanting to put AI and how we tackle that globally at the heart of the G20 presidency.

8:27He talked about cost of living, wanting to make life more affordable, wanting to stand up for British values and the rule of law. This was all to an international audience. But all of that are the contours, I think, of what we will hear at the Labour Party conference next week when he talks about it being time for Britain to believe again. And I know that in the next section, we can now unpick all that. And I have lots of unpicking of it as well. But I came away from New York thinking, you know what, for all this talk about this is continuity, Keir Starmer, it's not. On the plane back for a start, he came back down the plane.

9:07he had his t-shirt on he was very relaxed and he spent a long time because we were back right at the back of the plane it was quite packed in it was packed with journalists because everyone wanted to go on the first trip and he came back and he spent a lot of time just chatting to people he talked a little bit about conference but he genuinely seemed energized he seemed relieved and actually he genuinely seems to want to approach it as he has approached his politics and the way he carries himself for the past decade. Let's see if it lasts. I mean, he is. You're absolutely right.

9:45Harriet Harman: He's less of a robot than Stormer. He's very upbeat. But he didn't really come away with any substantive wins, as far as I could tell. I mean, he wanted to set up this global AI safety initiative. Trump completely flat-earthed it, like battered it aside as soon as it was there. So that was a bit of a loss. There was no sign of any more Patriot missiles being given to Ukraine, which is what Britain had been arguing for for a really long time. On the Middle East, we signed up to sending a plane over to help the Saudis. That's grand. There's not a single other Western nation that signed up with us.

10:16Harriet Harman: I sort of thought that he came away with some nice TikToks, but a bit empty handed, which I know sounds harsh. But I just, and I don't want to, like the guy's just started in the job. But at some point, he has to start putting down some meaningful wins. I do agree with you that the expectations for this meeting with Trump were set quite low, I think, in the sense of it was just can Andy Burnham get on with Donald Trump? Can he avoid a blow up? Can they establish a good report? On all of those tick, tick, tick from Downing Street, genuinely pleased and relieved at how it went. But I do agree with you, Ruth, that the real question for Andy Burnham will be, can he translate that into leverage?

10:58Because Starmer was criticised by Trump towards the end, but in those early months, he did manage to leverage, didn't he, in terms of getting more favourable terms of trade for the UK. So I do think it's a fair question. As far as what he got out of it in terms of what were his kind of wins in his meeting with Trump and others, I think what he got out of it was that he was building on the very good base that Starmer has developed as the new Labour government on the world stage. and I felt that there was an understanding of and a respect for Britain's position, how we are in relation to Europe, how we are in relation to Russia and Putin, how we are in relation to Iran and how we are in relation to world trade.

11:53I think people are clear about what our position is and they respect it. So I thought that the UK was walking tall in that global gathering that there was in New York. And that means that when you do have a specific ask, you're in a better position with others to get it. So I didn't feel anxious at all. And, you know, he can build on what he's done there. I have to say it was really frustrating for me personally because the way it works when there is the spray at the top of the meeting between Trump and Burnham is that certain amount of journalists. select. So when two leaders meet, normally cameras go in for the words, they call them the warm words at the top.

12:43And then sometimes there's what follows is a spray when a few questions are allowed. And with Trump, this can go on for an hour or 10 minutes. You just, it depends on the mood. So for Andy Burnham going in, it was really nerve wracking because number one, he didn't know how it was going to go. And number two, he didn't know how long this Q &A with Trump might go on. and how difficult it could become. And you might remember the most famous one, the one that has gone into the history books, no doubt, is the spray with Zelensky in the White House, which was just awful when Trump publicly humiliated him and harangued him alongside the Vice President J.D.

13:27Vance, President Zelensky. Now, what happened with this spray for Burnham was in the end, it happened after they met, not before, which was good. But it wasn't very long. And it was an example of Trump was on his best behaviour. Andy Burnham was on his best behaviour. There were difficult questions around the Chagos Islands, around the policy on the West Bank and illegal settlements, and of course, immigration, which Trump in the past has been really critical of the UK saying that immigration was, quote, killing our country. And all these thorny issues were raised. And between them, the two men sort of deftly dodged them.

14:08So I sort of came out of it thinking, well, I wasn't in the room, but actually this wasn't sort of blockbuster, massive jeopardy moment.

14:16Harriet Harman: I think you'll be relieved because it was a fairly inconsequential one. It wasn't one with any big news lines that came out of it, anything of any import. You know, it's almost like you kind of want to survive them because there is jeopardy going into these. But it also comes down to the fact that at some point, and I think there's quite a lot of pressure now on the speech in the middle of next week for Andy Burnham, at some point he has to say something that's not about a vibe shift. He has to say something that's consequential. You've got a really strong point there because we've heard a lot about how it's going to be changed.

14:51He is definitely leading in a different style. His communication style is different. And I do think vibes count for something. But I equally agree with you that now, next week at Labour, he's going to have to begin to show his ankle. He's going to actually have to put down on paper some proper policies and some plans or begin to set out that pathway. I mean, on the plane over, he was asked, you know, what is your message going in to conference? Are you concerned also that you're going to still face a backlash from Labour activists and members over the position on Israel? He's still under pressure from the left to actually call this a genocide and impose an arms embargo.

15:42So he's asked about both those things. And just to summarise the message, and then, Harriet, I want to ask you what you think of this. He sort of said the message at conference will be it's time for Britain to believe again, it's time for Britain to hope again. And he says it will build on what he was saying in New York about a stable Britain, setting out a new direction, drawing a line on the last decade. And it's quite neat that it's a decade, isn't it, from the Brexit vote to now to 2026. And he says, I will set out in Liverpool what that means in practice, right? And then he sort of He basically dodged on the question and it seemed to me that the answer was, I've gone as far as I'm going on that.

16:25We've always got to bear in mind that he was not the prime minister elected in a general election. So it's about him setting out his stall to the country and globally. This has been his first major outing on the world stage. But I think if you ask most people in the party, what does Andy Burnham and the Labour government now stand for on the world stage? and you just literally doorstep them on it. They would say a stronger position against Israel for what it's doing on illegal settlements in Gaza. They'd say strongly standing up against Putin in Ukraine and more pro-European. So those are three messages which the party will be very happy with.

17:08And then he'll be making his first conference speech as prime minister. And that'll be another a very big first. But I think that the party already feel they know what he stands for because he is very good at communication. And, you know, Ruth might well say, yeah, but where's the beef? Where's it? Well, the beef will be coming up one way or another in the budget on October the 28th. But actually, the Labour members know what the story is, and that enables them to feel confident members of the party and confident campaigners in by-elections. So it's, you know, I can see Ruth's impatient, where's the beef?

17:50Well, we're going to see a lot of the beef in the budget, and it's still less than 100 days. But in that fewer than 100 days that Andy Burnham's been Prime Minister, I think he's given the country, as well as the party, a sense of leadership.

18:04Harriet Harman: See, this is where I dispute it, because actually I don't disagree, Harriet, that he's positioned himself in a place where some of the real kind of fraying that happened at the edges of the Labour Party under Starmer, he's put himself in a place that's brought that back together a bit. But particularly when you're in government, your job is not just to speak to the party, it's also to speak over the head of the party and speak to the country, particularly if it's your first time as Prime Minister and you've got this free-ranging speech. I think in a way, the reason why you're saying, where's the details, Ruth, is because he so firmly established what the story is.

18:40With Keir Starmer, we had lots of details. We had no story. The point is, having established the story, the details have got to be commensurate with that. But I think Andy Burnham's team will go into the party conference and all the delegates at the party conference are going to be chilled as anything, despite the fact that Donald Trump seems to be blowing up the global economy in Iran, that Putin is rampant. You know, there are masses of problems. Nobody's in doubt about that. But I think the politics is where they want it to be and where it should be. I think everyone should read, if they can, the Tom McTague piece in the New Statesman today, because it really gives you a sense of how determined Andy Burnham is.

19:23And I think sometimes, because he's like a nice bloke and he's doing his TikToks and you forget that underneath it is someone that has failed a number of times to become prime minister and is now very, very clear eyed actually about what he wants to do. And it might be that he doesn't succeed. You know, if you had your economic indicator flashboard, everything's flashing red for him. Okay. The kind of hurdles that he's got in terms of the fundamentals are really clear. But I think the point about the story, I think it does matter because I think the problem Starmer had was he had this swell of people around the country so pissed off with how the country had been run, and then so disappointed when they had a prime minister that did not seem to engender change.

20:13And actually, I think maybe I've underestimated a bit about the kind of leadership question on that and the storytelling element of that. And if you look at the polls at the moment, Andy Burnham is ahead. His personal ratings are ahead, but also Labour are ahead again. And when you read this thing in the New Statesman, it is really interesting. He says there were too many people who wanted to have the job to have the job, whereas I wanted it because of what I can do with it. And I am seized with that now more than ever. And then he says, you know, people be no doubt about how I want to do the job.

20:48And he also says people might say you get into government and you dial down. I don't feel like that. I won't be dialing it down. Put it that way. that's all Andy Burnham like the sort of fire in his his belly and I was very skeptical at the beginning I thought oh god is he ready for this and I don't know if it'll work but I think the way he is presenting at the moment uh is is is to project that that storytelling and then he's got to come in behind that uh with the budget which I think he himself has said is going to be challenging and borrowing figures went up higher than expected in August. So it's going to be really difficult.

21:28But I think on the substance of it, Ruth, where you are absolutely spot on and where I think is really difficult for him is you can see the Tories and reform making the running on welfare reform. It's really difficult for him in the party. I think he's going to have a real battle to get welfare reform through the benches. But he understands as the MP for Makerfield and the sentiment of voters in places like Makerfield that they do want welfare reform. They do think it's unfair that people are on benefits and they are working hard. They do want this to be a system that's fairer. And then on immigration, just to say there were 781 people that came across in 10 small boats illegally on Wednesday as he was saying to President Trump, you know, we're having success on small boats and we're driving the numbers down.

22:19He has to tackle this problem, doesn't he, Harriet? And he has to say something on immigration, doesn't he, in this speech? I think he absolutely has to, because if he doesn't, everybody who wants to make immigration a huge issue will be saying, oh, see, he didn't even mention immigration. Do you remember, Beth, there was that one speech that Ed Miliband made to conference as party leader and didn't mention immigration and also didn't mention the budget deficit and the economy. So people, he will need to say something about it. But I think we've already seen the government coming quite hard on the issue of what are called the uncontrolled crossings.

22:58People who are crossing from France, but who are not picked up by the border agency boats and not picked up by the RNLI boats either, but just simply land on the soil. A bit like people who used to stow away in the lorries, used to suddenly be filtered into and melt away into communities without ever having any interaction with the authorities. The small boats, most of the landings, they're able to get the people and do some sort of examination of them. Whereas these, what are called uncontrolled crossings, I mean, nobody has any idea who these people are or where they go. So absolutely, they've got to be clamped down on.

23:36He's got to mention immigration and I'm sure he will. But I think also he's got a pretty consistent message on immigration. Do you remember with Keir Starmer, there was quite a lot of message changing. So at one point he said, you know, and if reforms say somebody with indefinite leave to remain can be carted off back to their own country, we're going to stand up and fight that. And then a few weeks later, proposals came forward from the Home Secretary that we were going to double the length of time between people who'd got indefinite leave to remain, being able to get their citizenship. So I think people didn't quite know where he was steering on that.

24:14But I think people do know where Andy Burnham is steering on immigration. But nonetheless, he will absolutely have to mention it. It seems to me he's got two massive flanks here that are very exposed. Welfare, very tricky for him, and immigration, right? And these are areas where if you are a Conservative party seeking to make ground on Labour, these are difficult for him, aren't they?

24:39Harriet Harman: Yeah, so I think you'll find the Conservatives will go so much harder on welfare, not supporting the armed forces, not having that 3.5 % commitment on defence. will talk up the tax thing as well. I mean, we've got the receipts. We've got the clip of Rishi Sunak in the debates at the general election saying Labour's going to tax everything that moves. On the immigration front, if I was an Andy Burnham advisor, I would say something about, we're taking the number down and we will continue to work hard to do that because people should arrive here fairly and transparently. And then I would go in hard on these black hooded people that try to come to Piddington and the people of Piddington told them basically we don't want you and I would go in hard on them as well and that part of it would play well I think with middle England, middle Scotland, middle Wales, middle class people who you know have that sense of fairness.

25:31Harriet Harman: We don't necessarily, people in that space don't necessarily want folk coming over on boats, they want to have legal organised migration but nor do they want thugs running around in hoots terrorising people either and they want a Prime Minister that sees that and the reason that I, if I was an advisor I would advise that is because your other issue on the right is not just the Tories, it's also reform. And reform is really only known by the public for its immigration policies and message. It hasn't really cut through with the other stuff. They are beginning to go down in the polls. Regularly now, Labour is beating reform in the polls.

26:04Harriet Harman: You take immigration further down the list of issues that people are saying they put their vote on, reform recedes even further. I think that's such good advice from Ruth. And I think Andy Burnham will know that people will expect him to show that as prime minister, what he's going to do is control the borders, but also control the streets. But the issue for Labour is that if small boats is already a massive vote of concern, seeing all these people marauding around is going to just increase anxiety. And I think that that's somewhere that the government do have to be really firm on. And he's got a gigantic platform next week to talk about it.

26:47Just on tax, I wanted to ask you both this, because Ruth, you talked about that clip, and I remember it so well, the Rishi Sunak clip in the general election of 2024, when he said, you know, they're lying, they're going to put your taxes up. and it gets played on loop now when Labour move on taxes. But Jason Groves at the Mail asked the Prime Minister on the plane over explicitly about, have we got the balance right between taxing wealth and taxing income in the UK? And the Prime Minister gave a very interesting answer that I wasn't sure how to interpret. He said, we've had two budgets in 24 and 25 and we have to be conscious of the extent to which we've raised revenue.

27:30you. We have to make sure we get the balance right. And when Jason asked, have you got the balance right? He then said, these are matters for the budgets. But if I asked you both to look in your crystal balls to interpret that, that seemed to me personally, I'll say what I thought. I thought that is a prime minister really reluctant to raise more tax, right? That does not seem like a sort of rubbing his hands together thinking, let's lamp a load more taxes onto the country. what do you make of that Ruth?

28:03Harriet Harman: Well I think every politician that ever lived wants to keep taxes low but wants to have a huge set of public coffers to spend on the programs that they like so there is a dichotomy there and it is about a balance. Honestly that struck me as somebody that really wanted to avoid the question ahead of the budget like I think this is somebody that does not want any kites flying or anything else to escape like they want to have a clean in and out of the budget and we'll see if they do. I mean, it can't be worse than last year where it was published before she sued up. God love her. What I took from it was he was not leaning in as he had in the past to taxing wealth more.

28:40I mean, he's talked a lot in the past about how he thinks there's an imbalance between taxing working people and income and taxing wealth. You know, it goes back to your point that he made about what I'm in office for, what I'm in number 10 for, what I want to be prime minister for. You know, it is about rebalancing away from the neoliberal economics, which has left rich people getting richer and poor people suffering and being left out. I think it would be very odd if his conference speech and his budget didn't actually be paving the way to delivering on that. If he said, I'm in for a purpose, and he's always said his purpose is fairness and equality and people not being left behind and people contributing fairly, then actually that balance between who pays the taxes commensurate with obviously wanting to be growth Britain, so he doesn't want to do anything that stifles growth in the way he taxes, but he's going to want to do fairly within what he does in the tax system, at least John Healy has.

29:42Harriet Harman: What did you say about neoliberal? What was that that you just said? 40 years of unbroken neoliberalism. All right, Castro, what happened to you? I'm just explaining what he's actually said. This is the Prime Minister's words, not mine. All right, OK. I was part of a neoliberal government. You neoliberal are you. You know, let's hear it for the neoliberals in Tony Blair's government. There's all this talk that Tony Blair's very upset with Andy Burnham, and he's put out a very unhelpful thing about rejoining the European Union just before conference. Is Tony Blair in a mood with Andy Burnham for basically trashing his administration?

30:21Well, he's doing his thing through the Tony Blair Institute and could be described as contributing to the thinking. Whether or not it finds its way into the thinking is another thing. But I think Andy Burnham is well strong enough to be listening to what Tony Blair's saying without having to feel he's automatically got to either denounce it or accept it. Can I just say, we're going to move on, but Harriet, I can see that you have been at the United Nations General Assembly exercising its supreme diplomacy from that answer. Congratulations.

30:59Harriet Harman: I mean, your secret Santa this year is absolutely a blue helmet, like 100%. And I did not do any diplomatic gaffes when I was out there. It's always my absolute fear that there'll be a massive international debacle because I'll have done some diplomatic gaffe. On point.

31:40Harriet Harman: I was 6 '10 once. Seven days delivered or returned it, Mr. Shaq. Not that I would. You never do. No, I never do. So buy your car today on Carvana. Delivery fees may apply. See our seven-day return policy at caravana.com.

31:58Before we go, we promised on the last Insider pod that we would get around to talking about the Liberal Democrats because their conference has been going in Brighton. It's just finished. and I wanted to put to you ladies Lindy's question from the forum. Thanks for sending this in Lindy and she asks, are the Lib Dems now politically irrelevant on the national stage? I live in a Tory safe seat but have always voted Lib Dem. I suppose you could say I am centre-left so extremes of the political spectrum don't interest me at all. I feel politically homeless as the Lib Dem voice seems to be lost among the clamour of Greens reform and now restore?

32:39Are the Lib Dems making a noise but not enough to be reported on? Or are they silent and only heard at council level? That is such a cork of a question because they are the third biggest party in Parliament, but you might not often think that. So what we've done is we've gone to our amazing sophologist, I love that word. It took me ages to be able to say it, but someone that studies elections and polling, it's Luke Chul, you know him so well, our expert at More in Common, to weigh in. And he sent us this voice note. There's a bit of a paradox when it comes to the Liberal Democrats. On the one hand, in 2024, they had their best ever election result.

33:21They built on that election result in local elections since in 2025 and 2026. in those areas where they are strong, particularly in the so-called Blue Wall, that's those areas in the south-east of England, the home counties that they won from the Tories, they're continuing to consolidate. So from that perspective, it's a pretty good picture. But beyond those areas, the Liberal Democrats have a real cut-through problem and challenge. So when we ask about Ed Davies' job approval, still more than half the public say he's doing neither a good or bad job or don't know. They don't have an opinion. When we ask people which of the main political parties they've heard from in recent months, the Liberal Democrats come dead bottom of the list, below parties like Restore and the Greens.

34:17And similarly, when we ask people, do you know what this party stands for? the Liberal Democrats are again at the bottom of the list. So they're struggling to cut through on the national stage. And so I guess the Liberal Democrats face a choice. On the one hand, they could continue with the current strategy, which if the Tories continue to struggle, might mean they can sweep up those remaining blue wall seats, get to 100 or so in the next Parliament, potentially end up in a coalition, although that requires the Conservatives not to recover and a lot of other things to go in their favour. On the other hand, they may decide to take more risks, to pivot, to try and win back some of those seats the Liberal Democrats were winning in the 2000s to become more of a progressive alternative to Labour, which may be possible if the Greens aren't able to regain their momentum.

35:15But right now, they're clearly at a fork in the road and the choice is consolidate, continue to be that party of the affluent southeast or try and reach out beyond it. I think one of the most interesting stats that we found in our polling is that one of the biggest predictors of voting Liberal Democrat is having a Gales bakery on your local high street. In fact, Lib Dem support in areas with Gales was higher than other demographic predictors, like being a graduate, having a particularly high income. So the question for Ed Davey is, are you happy with being the party of Gales or do you want more?

35:54Well, thanks for that, Luke. So look... God, I want a Gales now. Yeah, I was going to say, well, my main question is, do you have a Gales? No, what do you both think of that? And do you have a Gales on your high street? Who wants to go first? Well, I think there is one respect in which it suits the Lib Dems. it always has suited the Lib Dems not to have a very distinct national identity, because what that enables them to do is to be more right wing in Tory areas and hoover up Tory votes, and more left wing in Labour areas in order to hoover up Labour votes. And if they have a very distinct national identity, they forego the opportunity of being slightly shape-shifting on the ground.

36:38And that's the thing that Labour canvassers always rage about, is that the Lib Dems pose to be on the left in Labour areas, but they pose to be on the right in Tory areas. And I was interested in the Lib Dem conference, hearing the activists, some of them, protesting that Ed Davey is not popular enough, that he's not clear enough, that nobody knows what they stand for. And you can hear that kind of dissatisfaction. And ironically, that's come from the fact of how well they did in the general election. So it's like, hey, we've got over 70 seats, but still nobody seems to be listening to us. And when you think back that in 2010, they were in a very powerful position in the coalition with only 57 seats.

37:23So actually, although the Lib Dems are not doing so well in terms of the charisma or rather the lack of it of their leader, and they're standing in the polls, I think that they're actually in quite a good position electorally. And I suspect of the two options Luke postulated, they will carry on with what they're doing at the moment, because it's actually working well in council by-elections. They're not catching the headlines, but they're in a strong position.

37:53Harriet Harman: What do you think, Ruth? He seems like a terribly nice man, Davey. I mean, I think, you know, nobody would object to him sitting next to you on a train, for example. But I don't know what he stands for. And I don't know what the Liberal Democrats stand for. He's not a consequential leader. And the Liberal Democrats haven't found an issue of consequence to campaign on. I get that there's a lot of anger about the outgoing Tory government. You know, we took an absolute humping in 2024. And the Labour Party, despite its enormous majority, only got sort of 30 odd percent in the polls. So it wasn't a huge endorsement of Labour and we've seen the polls kick around with that.

38:29Harriet Harman: So there's a huge disaffected vote in Britain. Now some of it has gone to reform and a lot of people say they would consider voting reform. There are some people who would never ever consider voting reform and they are looking, if they're elsewhere, to maybe a nationalist party like the SNP or Plaid Cymru, or they're looking to the Liberal Democrats. But they're often looking to these other parties for something as well as being just against something else. And I think that they're grabbing all these votes for being not Labour and not the Tories. But at some point, they have to show people what being a Liberal and a Democrat is.

39:05Well, I wouldn't mind finding myself sitting next to Ed Davey on a train, because there's nothing I like better than having a really good snooze on a long train journey. And I feel that he would be very, very conducive to that. But in terms of Ruth saying about the issues. They did for a while grab the issue of social care. But you know, Andy has really embraced that. And also they've been kind of often distinctive for their pro-EU stance. But again, Andy has scooped that one up as well. So I think it's just like back to sleep on the train. I think there's the drive-by shooting just occurred. I think a murder just happened on this podcast.

39:45Harriet Harman: I have previously talked about how lovely Harriet Hartman is so nice and she's She's such an old pro when it comes to like making sure she grabs the microphone that she says like very nice conciliatory things. And then she stabs you with like a stiletto, twists it, pulls it out and then keeps going. Harriet, that was one of your most deadly ones yet. You are definitely going to have to send Ed Davey a spinach and feta roll from Gales to apologise for that. But I wouldn't dare fall asleep if I was sitting on a train next to Nigel Farage, for example. So there is a positive dimension of this. are relaxing.

40:19Lindy, I mean, it's such a good question and I think about it a lot as well. But I think the thing about the Liberal Democrats is when you actually look at the fundamentals, they have had an incredibly successful 2024 general election. They have more councillors and a higher share of councillors than in any year since 2010. And I think the strategy is to like really dig in locally and build and then build out. And I just think that given that there is not an obvious super duper challenger as well on the Lib Dem benches at the moment to challenge Davie, I think that they will continue with this strategy in the interim.

41:03And just on this idea about like causes, I agree with you that, you know, The European Union and membership of the EU was the sort of always the totemic policy of the Liberal Democrats. Social care, I think there's a space here whereby Ed Davey can work with Andy Burnham in a way that perhaps helps elevate Ed Davey. And the other thing to watch is that have you noticed the running that Ed Davey is now beginning to make on maternity care? He keeps bringing it up because he understands that actually for a huge group of voters, it massively matters. There is something there around social care and maternity services where Ed Davey sees an opening.

41:49But also if I was Ed Davey and I'd listen to Lindy, who's someone that has always supported me, feeling like, God, these guys, can they just like grab the mic a bit? You know, it does suggest that a bit more noisemaking champion policies would do the Lib Dem leadership well right now. But look, that is all for us today. We'll be back on Tuesday for the Insider episode. And it's a very special one because it's coming from Labour Party conference. And we're going to be bringing you all the drama and gossip from that. And that's up in Liverpool because we just love travelling on this podcast, don't we?

42:28Yeah, one day it's New York, next day it's Liverpool. And we'd love to know what you think. And if you have any questions, we love answering them. So get in touch on our brand new forum. If you're an insider, that's linked in the show notes or on the burner phone, which is as ever 07934 2444.

42:48Harriet Harman: And before we go, I have to remind you again, I know I did it at the top. Let me do it again. The exciting live show coming to London, 26th November. Tickets on sale for our members on Monday. If you're an insider, you get 15 % off your ticket price. And that's particularly a good deal because that 15 % off is worth more than your actual membership to be an insider. So if you're not an insider, we would love to have you. You can get early access to tickets, like I've said, and that discount. Not to mention a bonus episode every single week from us and details of how to subscribe are in the show notes.

43:21I can't wait for it. It's going to be great and I hope you will come. But until then, until next week, goodbye. Goodbye. Goodbye.