Why did Andy Burnham choose Israel for his biggest moment yet?

0:00If you've ever tried to hire someone in another country and immediately hit a wall of paperwork, compliance rules, and back-and-forth approvals, you know how fast that excitement can turn into a headache. That's exactly what Pebble is built to fix. Pebble is a global hiring platform that lets founders and HR leaders hire in over 185 countries in minutes, not months. Compliance isn't something you manage around with Pebble. It's built directly into the platform. A decade of expertise embedded into every workflow, so regulatory blind spots and costly mistakes don't slow you down. Contracts, payroll, benefits, it's all in one place, integrated with the tools your team already uses.

0:42And your new hire, onboarded by Monday. Pebble starts at$3.99 per month per employee. And right now, there's a limited time offer just for podcast listeners that makes it even easier to get started. Go to highpebble.ai before it's gone. That's highpebl.ai. Terms and conditions apply.

1:12I'm sort of surprised you're standing here now and saying, I'm still a reform supporter. Ed Miliband has got to increase even more what he says about anti-Semitism will not be tolerated.

1:31And I think actually it was intentional to criticise Keir Starmer.

1:41Hello and welcome to Electoral Dysfunction with me Beth Rigby. Me Ruth Davidson. And me Harriet Harman. And it's very exciting because we are all together. It's like the Avengers assembling today. Yeah, I've made my biannual trip down to London. I've got a noise played across the border. It's so nice. If you're watching on YouTube, you will see that Ruth Davidson is in the studio. And I have to ask this. I actually know the answer, but she's dying to tell all of you. So, Ruth, why are you in London, Ruth? Well, I was down to do my parliamentary duty because there were some votes last night. So I did all of that.

2:15But I'm also down because I'm so excited. I've got a real bucket list moment coming up in that later on today, I am playing actual tennis on the actual championship courts at actual Wimbledon. And I have to wear fights and everything. I'm very excited. I'm so excited. I didn't even know Wimbledon week was happening, Ruth. Yeah, I don't think I'd be in anyone's championships. But no, the lovely members of the All England Tennis Club have sent an invitation to the Commons and Lords APPG on tennis, their tennis team. Are you quite good then? I was pretty handy as a junior and I'm a decent mid sort of club player.

2:52So there's four teams, four women's teams at my club and I play in the second team. So I'm not, I sometimes get called up to the first. So I'm all right. I'm not going to embarrass anybody, but I'm taking on the captaincy next year, which I'm a little bit worried about. But like, this is genuine bucket list stuff because I remember like all as a kid watching those great Martina versus Steffi Graf ones and all the rest of it. So I'm genuinely ticking off something that I will forever be able to see I've played at Wimbledon. Oh, that is nice, isn't it? Are you going to have some strawberries and cream afterwards?

3:22I have no idea. I will do whatever they tell me to do. But bucket list stuff, you guys must have bucket lists that you want to tick off. I would love to go and see the Northern Lights. And I would love, because I secretly would like a husky dog to own one. And you'd have to live in the far north, not just far north London, I'm talking. I'm talking actual real far north. But I would love to go in a sleigh and be carried along by a pack of huskies. Oh, Angelo's listening now and he's booking it for you. Harriet Bucket, one thing you'd like to do? Oh, I'm in a reverse bucket list because I've done so many more things than I ever thought I would.

4:00But honestly, the idea of going up with, you know, huskies, it just, I'm going to be sending you off and enjoying your enjoyment of it, but definitely not for me. No, not for you. No, Ibiza's as far as I'm going to go. I mean, I fully endorse Ibiza.

4:22It's week two of the new government. There's been tons going on. We've had the Reform Party conference. There is a widening of the investigation now into potential foreign funding of the Reform Party, the Met now looking at those Channel 4 undercover reporting. So we're going to talk a bit about reform, Mardin's scandal, and we've got someone to talk about to give us the inside track on that. And then we've got the big Andy Burnham shift, because this week, the man that said he was going to bring in a change moment in government actually made good on that pledge in a really quite a resting way with a big announcement on sanctions against Israeli settlements, quite a big departure from the Starmer administration, a point that Ed Miliband was keen to actually stress out the dispatch box.

5:24And this was a big change moment, I think. The British government agrees that there is ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in areas of the West Bank, perpetrated by settler terrorists. And all too often, the Israeli government has turned a blind eye to this, and worse, members of it have made statements and taken actions to support the forced displacement of Palestinians. Today I announce that the official view of the British government is that the occupation is unlawful. Because of Israel's entrenchment of its control, its intention to extend permanent sovereignty, and its expansionist agenda via illegal settlements.

6:01That's the Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband on Tuesday. And Harriet, I want, you know, I want to ask you about this and what you think about the policy, but also the implications for the Labour Party, the Labour movement, the country, what you think the motivations are in announcing this policy at this point. But first, I want to ask you, Ruth, if you've got a bit more of a rundown on what was announced, and then we can get into why it was such a bold moment. Yeah, so there was some quite technical elements to this. So in terms of the announcement itself, over the next six to nine months, the UK, along with France, Canada, nine other countries, Ireland was in there, you know, sort of people that you would expect the UK to kind of work in concert with, are going to ban imported goods from illegal settlements on the West Bank.

6:52And Ed Miliband also said that government, as you heard in that clip there, thinks that the unlawfulness of the occupation should therefore be reflected in the economic relationships that the UK chooses to have, i.e. the UK is going to flex its muscles and take action against these settlements that have been set up in territory where they're not supposed to be set up. And again, in that clip you heard, he also went a bit further. He used the word ethnic cleansing. So he believes that there is ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in this part of Gaza. And the sort of sanctions themselves will see specific companies who provide services for the settlement expansion.

7:32So there's a big mega settlement that's due to be built. So basically, you're not allowed to supply construction materials, there'll be no British companies involved in building that. Some of the real estate deals that are happening, you know, anything that's got a British element to that, that won't be allowed. That will all be faced with the full kind of sanctions of there. Now, as you can imagine, a big announcement like that does not go without a response from Israel. So there was an Israeli response. They've said they're going to close the UK consulate in Jerusalem, which is the kind of official office and the headquarters of basically anything that the UK does in Israel, Palestine, occupied territories, etc.

8:14runs out of there. It means that within the next 30 days, British staff there are going to have to leave. They've got no right to remain there. So the diplomatic rumblings are going to go on for quite a long time after that. So back home, there was a response to the response and the chief rabbi came out to say that it was a dark day for British Jews and for the British Jewish community. And that the British Jewish community felt more under threat now or felt more at risk than it had done previously. Now, it is worth saying that Ed Miliband was very quick to come on various news programmes and say, look, I'm a Jewish atheist.

8:49He's called himself that before, but he's like, I'm a British Jew and I don't feel that. And the chief rabbi is wrong. So there's been some quite strong words and responses flying around this week. And there's a lot to digest in all of that. But Harriet, it was really striking to me that Ed Miliband was so clear on the policy. And as you said, Ruth, when he was quizzed about it and quizzed about some of the response from the Jewish community in the UK, he was absolutely fulsome in his defence of the policy and the principles. and he sort of very clearly said, I identify as a British Jew and this is not about the Jewish people.

9:32It was very clear that anything anti-Semitic will not be tolerated. This is targeted at the Israeli government and the motivation underlying all of this is to try and keep the two-state solution alive, arguing that if this mega settlement is allowed to go ahead, if this keeps happening, the illegal settlements, then the international community has less and less chance of getting to a two-state solution. That is the policy priority of the government. But I was also really struck at the way he was quite pointed, really, I think, in criticising the previous Labour administration, criticising Keir Starmer.

10:20At one point, he said, we should have acted earlier. It has taken the new Prime Minister to come in and recognise the gravity of the situation, the degree of public concern. And he also said the Prime Minister is right to say the Labour government has not done enough in the face of what is happening today. It marks the beginning of a new approach, approach that not only calls out injustice and suffering, but Axe. She's a bit of a slap down to Starmer actually. Yeah, I wanted to get your view on that because I think it stung some of Starmer's supporters from the conversations I had. What did you think?

11:00Well, I think it was enormously significant and enormously emphatic. I think there's three things. Firstly, it shows that Ed Miliband and Andy Burnham are saying we're not happy just to have a position. we're going to do something about it. Secondly, that they are going to, obviously they want to be pragmatic as much as they can, but they're also going to act on principle. And the principle here is that these are violent land grabs where Palestinian people are being driven off their land. And that's been regarded as illegal in international courts. And instead of just standing by and seeing it getting worse and seeing UK companies involved in the building project, a building project of a settlement which is going to make it more difficult ever to reach the peace that could come from a two-state solution.

11:57The two-state solution being that you have a peaceful Israel behind secure borders and that you have a peaceful, properly run Palestinian state that where this land is, this called E1, where it's about to be built if the settlers have their way, would make that nigh on impossible. So it's basically also signalling a new international coalition, not so much America leading, but the UK, Canada, Netherlands, France. It's what Mark Carney, when he spoke in Davos, was talking about the middle powers acting together. I mean, it'd be better if it was America as well. But if America's not on board, what Andy Burnham and Ed Miliband are saying is we're not going to wait around.

12:41We're going to take action that we believe is right anyway. Harriet, the obvious question after that is, do you think Keir Starmer didn't do enough? And did they prevaricate? I mean, the Foreign Secretary was Yvette Cooper, who you are very close to. I mean, do you think they did prevaricate and they should have gone further and faster on this? Well, I think one of the things that was said by all the cabinet ministers who'd been appointed by Starmer and then actually called for him to go and wanted Andy Burnham to come in is that he had the right principles and approach, but he didn't do things, that things got blocked and didn't actually happen.

13:20And I think that what you see is a confident activism now in Andy Burnham's government, exemplified by what Ed Miliband did. I'll just give you another example, is that in our manifesto, in Labour's manifesto in 2024, it said alongside tackling discrimination and inequality on the grounds of sex or race or disability or age, we're also going to implement the provision which says you mustn't discriminate and you must have a positive duty to tackle the gap between rich and poor, which is the discrimination on grounds of class. So this was part of the equality agenda. It was never implemented in 2010 when we did the Equality Act.

14:03But our manifesto said, Labour, if it gets into government, is going to implement what's called Clause 1 of the Equality Act. Nothing actually happened on it. And now Andy Burnham has said, right, it's in the manifesto, we're going to do it and set out that we're going to do it. So I think there was a lot of things that people had supported and wanted to happen. that was in Starmer's manifesto, which just didn't get done. I do wonder as well, the purpose of this, the longer strategic purpose of this from all of these countries, including ourselves, in terms of what it achieves. Now, yes, it means that no British companies will be involved in this.

14:38And obviously, doing something you think is principled and correct and sends the right signal has a value and a virtue of itself. but there are some Israeli elections coming up and I do wonder sometimes whether this isn't the kind of reverse effects. And I just want to jump in on that Ruth because I've just actually been, the reason I've been a bit distracted is I've been on an exchange in the pod with Luciana Berger who is a Labour peer. She left the Labour Party in the Corbyn years because she was suffering from anti-Semitic abuse. She's now back in the Labour Party And I bumped into her at an event the other night and it was the day that the policy was announced and she was talking to me, raising some of the concerns actually, Ruth, that you've just said.

15:26And she's just sent me quite a long message about sort of the reasons that she was concerned about it. And her point is that we're about seven weeks away from an Israeli election that many have been waiting a long time for. And she says the thing that could make the greatest material difference to changing the facts on the ground in Israel and actually improve the prospects for peace is to see the current Israeli coalition replace or change of government leadership. And she has said that opposition leaders such as Lapid have rightly come out to say this policy right now is deeply unhelpful. Israel's opposition parties have clearly indicated a change of direction and respect to the West Bank, including settlement outposts and extremist violence and across a range of other issues.

16:18And she says we have played straight into the right-wing coalition's hand. It advances Netanyahu's campaign, makes a potential Netanyahu victory more likely, weakens the chance of opposition winning. She says it reinforces a siege mentality that benefits right-wing parties. It costs the opposition critical support amongst undecided voters, the majority of whom come from the moderate right. And she says it undermines trust in the UK and other international partners, making it more challenging to build Israeli public support for diplomatic solutions sought by a future government. And she ends it by saying we would be incandescent if another country made policy announcements in the short campaign that could tilt the outcome of domestic elections.

17:10And, you know, when she sets out like that, I mean, they're pretty good points, aren't they? But I think what this government is saying is that the timing imperative is because the contracts are going out to tender and we don't want British building companies to be building these settlements. I mean, settlements sounds such a cosy word. I mean, they're land grabs of people who've been violently driven off their land. I mean, of course, she's... You know Luciano really well. I mean, she makes really good points there, doesn't she? She does. And there's always that fear. There's always downsides.

17:42But the government have made a decision that this is a critical moment. But I think it is important that there is a growing international coalition, which is sending out the message to Israel that they are getting, their state is getting more and more isolated because of what Netanyahu is doing. Even Donald Trump has not come to their defence at this point. And I think people did think that he would immediately condemn Andy Burnham and Ed Miliband. And so far, he hasn't. What I found really fascinating about this announcement is that actually it's quite difficult to enforce because you don't know if products are coming from Israel or are they coming from the settlements?

18:23Are you doing business with Israel or with the settlements? So it's actually quite a difficult policy to actually enforce and get right. But put that aside, I mean, this is also, number one, there is a by-election coming up, and this will undoubtedly help the Labour candidate against Zach Polanski when he runs in that by-election that Keir Starmer's resignation, stepping down as an MP, has triggered. It is Labour Party conference coming up and this is a hugely popular policy. And also domestically, there is a prime minister who said that his government was going to be the biggest change moment in 40 years.

19:05And so this is a way I think that this new Labour government is able to say we are different from Keir Starmer. And I think actually it was intentional to criticise Keir Starmer to imply that they hadn't gone fast enough to show Burnham was different. But what is so interesting to me and slightly ironic is this was the guy, this is the prime minister that's like, I'm not going to do that, Keir Starmer going all around the world, never here, Keir. I'm all about domestic policy, people and place, cost of living, etc, etc. And then the big kind of change moment is in the area of foreign policy, which I just thought was slightly ironic.

19:51But that is partly what's going on, isn't it, Harriet? That they want to show that they're a new government. They want to please Labour members. They want to please Labour MPs. And in doing this policy, they have delighted the base. I think the primary motivation of the Foreign Secretary and the Prime Minister has to be what is in the national interest. and what's a matter of principle. I really think that if you get a situation where a prime minister or a foreign secretary is doing hugely important things because of a Labour Party conference or because of a by-election, you're not fit for government.

20:28I mean, it might be, as Ruth says, a side effect that actually it does demonstrate change and activism in a way which they want to do. But the motivation for doing it, the primary purpose has got to be what it says on the tin, that there's violence taking place. We don't want to be implicated in it by actually being part of the building process, which makes a peace process and a solution ever more distant. Put bluntly, do you think that Keir Starmer should have done more sooner? Are you in that camp? Well, I just, you know, I think Keir Starmer did a lot of really good things, not least getting us into government with 400 Labour MPs.

21:07And therefore I hate to be like turning around and criticising him for what he didn't do. So I'll just have to leave that to other people because it just feels really mean. Leave it to Webb Miliband. Leave it to Webb Miliband. She's left her behind. He's yesterday's guy. She's team Andy now. She's got the jumper on. Is that what you're saying? Well, I just think, you know, he's lost out horribly And it doesn't need me to kind of point out the problems that led to that. There obviously must have been problems, otherwise he'd still be prime minister. I mean, once again, I find myself stepping in and defending Keir Starmer, which I often do on this programme and I find it weird.

21:46I mean, Harriet does believe that you should be a Labour Party member. Yeah, not happening. But I think we kind of forget, we talk a lot about Keir Starmer's two years in government. We forget about his five years in opposition and where the Labour Party was with anti-Semitism. You know, he did the hard yards on that. But I think as well, there was a change that has resonated with the public and one of the other charges against Andy Burnham. Have you seen the YouGov polling on it? Yeah, no, I did. And I was surprised by that because I'm fairly sure. And the Yuga poll says that 52 % of Brits approve of the government's decision to ban the import of goods from the contested Israeli settlements in the West Bank and 17 % disapprove.

22:24Which it did slightly surprise me that the differential was so high, not least because I'm fairly sure that 69 % of people that had an opinion of this could not point to either Israel or the West Bank, never mind the disputed settlements on a map. And neither could I. I wasn't surprised by it because I actually think that the long-standing principle of a two-state solution, I think most people would be behind that, that you want these two countries, these two peoples, these two nations to be able to live side by side. And that seems like such a, I mean, almost impossible at the moment. It's as close to a universal political truth as there is in anything that's contested as this.

23:07This idea that it must be right that there is a place for Palestinians and there is a Palestinian land. And it must also be right that there is a place for Israelis and there is an Israeli land and there is a Jewish homeland somewhere on earth. And bearing in mind how straightforwardly obvious that is, that that's the solution. what a catastrophic failure of political leadership on both sides there has been for decades that has let people in Israel down and let the Palestinians down. I mean, it is a monumental failure of political leadership. The hope and disaster of it, because we were, if you remember in the Clinton years at Camp David, and we were so close.

23:46I mean, it was the closest we had ever been to a lasting solution there. And then it all just fell apart at the last minute. And that sense of just having defeat from the jaws of peace sort of just snatched is, you know, the whole coulda, woulda, shoulda, like how close we were. And if we could have just got it over the line. Bearing in mind what a monumental failure there's been amongst the leadership, it makes me think of the organisations on the ground. And, you know, British policy and actually UN policy is that there should be no conflict resolution processes that excludes women. And certainly women are usually the primary sufferers in conflict situations.

24:28And do you see any women in any sort of peace process in the Middle East? You never actually have either on the Israeli side or on the Palestinian side. And yet there are really good women's organisations in Israel and in Palestine that are actually trying to work together. And I think following this big statement that Ed Miliband's done and the big step he's taken on the sanctions, I think really supporting those women's community organisations that are seeking to work across the divide and building from the bottom up, like was done in Northern Ireland, that's got to be part of the next step.

25:04I think there is a job here for Ed Miliband to do. And he sort of fronted the policy change. And he was the one that was doing the TV studios and all the rest of it for two days. And I don't think he can be a submarine on this. I don't think he can go back under the surface. And I think the next stage of what he needs to do is he needs to reassure Jewish communities here at home. And I thought it was bold of him. I have to say, I thought it was really bold of him to come out immediately when the Chief Rabbi said that Jewish communities in Britain will feel more under threat. They'll feel as if this will be another stick to beat them with.

25:34that he said, no, that's nonsense, essentially. I disagree with the chief rabbi. And I get the chief rabbi doesn't speak for all Jewish people. I completely understand that. But I do think that this is a community that has felt under threat. And I heard one of the deputy commissioners of the Met talking today on the radio when I was walking in here today, talking about the word he used was extraordinary, the extraordinary threat level that the Jewish community is facing in the UK right now. So we spoke to a member of the Jewish community in North London, a woman called Susan, who wanted to talk to us about how she's feeling with all of this.

26:06I'm a 57-year-old British Jew whose family has lived in the UK for generations. I grew up proud to be British and unaffected by anti-Semitism. I no longer feel that way. Since the 7th of October, anti-Semitism has become rife and Jewish families live in constant fear. Ed Miliband's sanctions and comments do nothing other than increase animosity towards British Jews and alienate a vital ally. They do nothing to promote peace. And we all know that they're driven by desperation around the Hoban and St Pancras by-election and winning the anti-Israel vote from the Greens. Ed Miliband is a self-proclaimed atheist, so it's very convenient that suddenly he identifies as a proud British Jew.

26:47I find this rather insulting. We still have to privately fund security and protective walls for Jewish schools and nurseries targeted by terrorists seeking to harm our children. As we approach the Jewish New Year, we feel increasingly alienated and vulnerable. After last year's Palestinian state recognition and the subsequent synagogue murders in Manchester, the question I hear most from Jews is not whether they'll leave Britain, but when. That's pretty stark there from Susan. And that's why I think that there is a second phase to this that Ed Miliband has to do. And he has to do that reaching out.

27:22And he has to try and do that reassurance. And he has to say to the community here, you know, you are seen. We understand your concerns. There is an international diplomacy job that we have to do state to state, talking about the Israeli government, Israeli government policies from a British government perspective. but everybody that lives in the United Kingdom deserves to have safety and security. And we see and we hear your concerns and we'll make sure that we work in every way possible to do thought leadership about the fact that anti-Semitism is on the rise in the United Kingdom and how we get rid of that, but also making sure that you're not having to fund your own security, that our police forces are doing that for you.

28:00I mean, where I live in North London, I live near Stamford Hill, which has a huge Hasidic Jewish community. And I can tell you outside every school, synagogue, every Jewish building, there are security. I mean, it is just a matter of course. I mean, Harriet, you know, when you hear what Susan says there and you think about Ed and Miliband, you know him very well. How do you think he would respond to that? I mean, do you agree with Ruth that he has some work to do here to try and reassure the Jewish community. Well, absolutely. And I think it's horrific that so many Jewish people feel terrible threat from anti-Semitism because they are blamed, because they're Jewish, for what the Israeli government, the Israeli state is doing.

28:52And I think that there's, Ruth's absolutely right, Ed Miliband has got to increase even more what he says about anti-Semitism will not be tolerated. It is not acceptable to target British Jews, whatever you think of what's going on in Israel, and that the full backing of the government will be given to the police, and that no quarter will be had and no excuses justified. And I think it's just horrifying to think that a community that has contributed so much to this country and is so much an integral part of this country that the Jewish community are, should actually feel that they might have to leave because they don't feel safe.

29:36You know, for what it's worth, I don't think these raging anti-Semites who are all over the internet and who are actually threatening people, you know, in practice as well, I don't think they take their cue from the government. But I think the government's got a really strong role to clamp down on it. I think that the government does set the tone and I think that it is impossible to disassociate some of the rise of anti-Semitism that we had under the Corbyn leadership, for example. I think you've got to credit Keir Starmer with a lot of good work in terms of rebuilding that relations between the Labour Party and the Jewish community in the United Kingdom, but also setting the tone for what is acceptable and unacceptable.

30:22And I do think it has a responsibility. Well, we're going to do some more on this. So, and I think it will also be a big talking point, clearly going into Labour conference. Also, the Prime Minister will be going to the United Nations General Assembly later in September, where Donald Trump will be attending. International leaders have agreed to sort of go because they want to talk to Trump about Ukraine. But of course, I think this will also be on the agenda. He's got huge space because, you know, he's, he's, he had over a month, he had six, seven weeks of being prime minister with no questioning in parliament.

30:58He's done two PMQs and now they're off for another five weeks because of conference season. Andy Burnham really has, by luck or by judgment, has timed his period as prime minister with maximum amount of free platform to put forward his own position without facing incoming fire. Yeah, and he's also been helped by troubles in opposition parties. And we're going to go to an ad break and come back and talk about some of the troubles besetting reform, which I'm sure Andy Burnham's quietly rubbing his hands in glee about because it is definitely helping Labour. But we're going to come back to that in a moment.

31:46I'm Gibran, and with diabetes, mine was finger sticks. Sometimes, I skipped them because it hurt. The Freestyle Libre 3CGM changed that. It gives me glucose insights without finger sticks. Learn more at freestyllibre.us. Finger sticks are required if your glucose alarms and readings do not match symptoms or when you see check blood glucose symbol for the first 12 hours. The views expressed should not be used for medical diagnosis or treatment as a substitute for professional medical advice. Individual circumstances may vary. For prescription only. Safety info found at freestyllibre.us.

32:21Well, we're back. And if you were listening to our exclusive episode for Insiders that came out on Tuesday, we were having a look at Reform's party conference from last weekend. Beth, you were there. You were telling us all the inside track. And we're also having a kind of broader discussion about some of the troubles that have affected reform, whether they've reached their peak. So if you do want to listen back to all of that analysis that came out of Reform Party Conference, you can get access to that super easily. Just go into the show notes. You can click on the link there. And if you're not a member, join up.

32:52We're well worth it. But we're going to speak a little more about reform today because since that episode, the Met police have now widened their investigation into Reform UK after more allegations about donations to the party emerged in the Channel 4 documentary last week. Now, the Met were already looking at four separate donations of£250 ,000 apiece. They were looking at how those donations had come in and the source of those donations. So that investigation has actually been going on for over a year. But now they are widening that. And I should say at this point, a Reform UK spokesperson has said, Reform UK denies any wrongdoing and will fully cooperate with the investigation.

33:42We won't be commenting further while a live investigation is. But look, for anyone who didn't see the Channel 4 documentary, and if you haven't seen it, I would recommend that you watch it. But Ruth, can you explain what we saw in it? So it was a couple of undercover reporters posing as a rich American businessman and his British son. And they spoke to a couple of, they'd had pre-chats with a couple of officials that are very close to Nigel Farage. And then they had a lunch with Nigel Farage and these two sort of aides. And the discussion was about how they could spend£32 ,000 on private polling for reform, but also how could they channel half a million pounds from the American dad through the British son to get round electoral law about not accepting foreign donations.

34:38but with an understanding, as it was portrayed in the documentary, that the money would originate from the American father in this scenario. Now, as these conversations were going on about this donation originating from the States, potentially, but coming through a British kind of relative, Nigel Farage was on camera. He was at this lunch. He has subsequently said that he wasn't really listening and that he was just basically there as window dressing. so they could say they'd met with him. So I think the big question really is, is there a way back for reform from this? There's four things that are going on with reform at the moment.

35:17The first is that having swept the board in the council elections in Makerfield, they got absolutely thrashed by Andy Burnham and that kind of stopped their momentum. Secondly, they've got all these criminal and parliamentary investigations into foreign money being used to fund reform. And in fact, their leader in Wales actually was sent to prison for taking Russian money. Thirdly, splits are emerging, which Ruth foreshadowed long ago between those who want to go to the far right and those like Nigel Farage who want to broaden their appeal. And fourthly, they've got, they're being undercut on the far right by Restore UK and also these vigilante groups in the street, which they are deciding, shall we back them or shan't we back them?

36:12So there's four things running up to Reform's conference, which means that Farage is not the cheeky, relaxed chappy. But now we've got an insider's view on this because Tim Montgomery, who left the Conservative Party where he was very influential to join reform, has now firstly been suspended by reform and is now leaving them and says, even if they invite me back in, I'm not going. So I'm really interested to hear from him what he thinks about this. Tim, welcome to our podcast. It's delightful to see you here. I feel like I'm breaking a glass ceiling as a man coming onto your podcast. Revolutionary moment for equality.

36:51Men are always welcome on our pod and to listen to our pod. Now, you left the Conservatives, you went to reform. You've been a big presence for the party. You were suspended and now you've decided to leave reform. There was an investigation, but you're like, actually, I'm out of here. Why did you decide to leave, Tim? Well, it was a very big decision a couple of years ago, probably the biggest political decision of my life, really, and made it for all sorts of reasons. And the big aim, I think, that we needed to achieve as a party was to make it clear that the form was the ascendant party on the right.

37:38And it became clear really to me recently that neither the Conservatives nor reform are either going to sort of get ahead or fade away. And I started to explore publicly what that meant for reform strategy. And they didn't like it. And then they made that suspension. And it was people in HQ, not Nigel Farage, to be fair to them. and as that suspension wore on it became clear that they really didn't want me to carry on speaking and I obviously as a member they have some power over me but as an independent journalist they have none so that's why I decided to still be a supporter of the form but no longer a paid up member So still a supporter but in terms of the kind of canary in the coal mine effect of it Tim leaving the Tories at the point in which you left the Tories was when they were on a sort of downward trajectory joining reform when you did was when they were massively expanding and actually having somebody that could be a media outrider that could do this sort of talking head chat show stuff was a gap that they had actually if they wanted to be in the mainstream and taking on Labour and the Conservatives across the airwaves as well as in the polls and the fact that there's no space for you the fact that you've been caught up in some of the internal machinations.

39:05Does that indicate a wider truth about reform? Well, look, if reform were to achieve what their depth is, to go from just a few MPs to a majority of parties, it'd probably be one of the most sensational stories in British political history. And it's not going to go all in one direction. It's not all going to be a success, if it's a success at all. and the scale is so huge, the task is so huge, the idea that you can't debate it, that the few people in the centre can control this and part of members, journalists like me, are not allowed to help decide, debate what steps need to be taken. It's almost bound to fail, in my view.

39:52I think for them to think they can do it without involving members, involving outside experts, involving international politicians. It's bound to fail. And that sort of lack of openness to alternative views, some constructive criticism, that does worry me. Tim, bluntly, because it was the discussion around conference, recent difficulties Farage has found himself in, I think there are splits at the top of the party about the direction. It still feels like it is run as a court of Nigel Farage rather than a professional democratised outfit. Has reform peaked? I don't know. Very possibly if some big changes aren't made.

40:43And first of all, Nigel Farage has to make it very clear that he, not Ziyusuf, is in charge. and Zooeyus seems to me to be almost openly running for the leadership with videos, freelance decisions, undermining things that Nigel Farage was set out to do like woo conservatives. I think the financial problems and the reporting problems that we've seen at Channel 4 documentary, that highlights what is a wider problem at HQ. It's not just the fundraising department that's a little bit dysfunctional. There's a lot of dysfunctionality there and reformer done some good stuff on social media vetting fundraising and they've made a lot of progress but i don't need enough urgency to fix the other issues and then the third and most in my list of most important things is we've maybe not believed this bet but nigel doesn't even meet his colleagues regularly he doesn't have a chief of staff now if they were doing these sort of basic I think decisions would be taken the better decisions would be taken everyone would know they're on the same page and I think he just needs to adjust his behaviour he was largely a lone leader of movements in the past he's now trying to form a parliamentary majority and he needs to learn new skills and new habits Do you regret leaving the Conservatives?

42:11Would you ever go back? I've been asked that question quite a few times recently. Look, I love the Conservative Party. I'm so unoriginal. I love the Conservative Party and I left very reluctantly. But when the party failed as comprehensively in government as it did, everything really went in the wrong direction. Taxes went up, home ownership went down, immigration went up. We were familiar with the to live. The failure was so catastrophic, I think it will be some time before the party can tend to power again. And that's why I gambled on reform. I don't, sorry Harriet, but I don't want another Labour government.

42:54I don't want a Labour-lid-them government after the next election. And I thought, and probably still on balance think, reform is the best vehicle for the right to stop a left-wing majority. And lots of reasons for that, but the main one is that the Conservative Party is largely stuck in the rural of Britain, in the South East, whereas reform on its best can win almost everywhere. And the actual voting against it is its weakness. And then I think that's part of why I've emphasised my Conservative Party, see you use of it because he is making the party fair unattractive to a middle person. Do you know, it's weird to hear you talk like that, Tim, because the Tim Montgomery that I got to know many, many years ago, it wasn't just about who was more likely to be electorally successful.

43:48It was somebody who believed in stuff. It was the Tim Montgomery that organised the trip to Easter House with Ian Duncan Smith, where he saw those, you know, heroin needles sitting next to a child's toy in a stairwell and decided that he had to tackle things like family breakdown. We had to launch compassionate conservatism. It's the guy who was a driving force behind what we believed, how we showed our community values, as well as our economic ones and our managerial prowess and all the rest of it. It was somebody that thought that politics was a vehicle to achieve things, not just to stop the Labour Party.

44:23And that's why I was quite surprised when you jumped ship, and for the reasons that you've said. And it's why I'm sort of surprised You're standing here now and saying, I'm still a reform supporter, despite the fact you've just told us that they're not doing the basics right, that Nigel needs to modify his position, that Zia Youssef's gone off the reservation, that they're not listening to anybody outside of a really core group and that they don't know how to govern. So I'm kind of struck that the Tim Montgomery that I used to know, why are you sticking with people that you're one step away from saying, actually, yeah, they are a bunch of snake oil salesmen that don't know what they're doing?

44:58That's quite a spin on what I said Yeah, but I used to be a journalist So let me have it I will say she's a good politician as well Look, I still largely believe in the same stuff Tough on immigrants, tough on crime Married to a concern for people at the bottom of the pile That's my conservatism I'm still a conservative, Ruth And I didn't just join Reform Because I thought they were most likely to win I wanted to help them be the party that the Conservative Party never quite managed. Never. You were brilliant in Scotland. You were the one person who managed to take the Conservative Party into New Zealand.

45:37But generally in the north, coastal, and Wales and Scotland, the Conservative Party's problem is long term. And so, whereas other political movements in the world have ridden what is one of the biggest changes in politics, I'm simplifying but better off more educated people are moving left, blue collar people who are struggling more are moving right and I think reform has ridden that very successfully and the Considida probably has been very slow to I'm still the same person and I just thought reform could be and still do think it could be the best vehicle for this but there is a real debates happening in the party at the moment.

46:23There's some people, and I don't know if it's too much about the EU, who would, I think, take reform in a sort of restore ADF direction. And I think neither one needs to make it clear. Someone who kept Tommy Robinson, for example, out to reform, he polices the right in a way that Jeremy Corbyn never polices the left. He needs to make it clear to the EU and others that he's not going to abandon those red lines he's had over a year. Tim, if I'd asked you just a couple more things. If I'd asked you a year ago, would there be a reform? Would they have a real chance of winning the next election? I think I know what your answer would have been.

47:03If I ask you it now, what would your answer be? Actually, I've been consistent right throughout this parliament. I think the likeliest outcome of the next election is a Labour-Libb-Dem arrangement, probably. And I probably thought that was 55%, 60%. I now think it's 80%. Because not only is the right divided, we're sort of hating upon each other as well. The lack of willingness to compromise, the lack of respect. and you look at places like Canada where there's been similar splits in the past. It's normally taken one or two more defeats for the right to realise, okay, we've got to put our differences aside, we've got to compromise.

47:48We don't have that time. Britain is in a declining place at the moment. We've met urgent problems. We can't wait 10 years for power. We need to get back more quickly But I see no likelihood of some sort of arrangement, not a big deal, but some sort of arrangement where we could at least stop fighting Tories in the South and Tories can stop fighting reform in the North. OK. Well, Tim, thank you for coming on our pod. I love the pod, by the way. You are amazing together. you're such a charmer Tim you're such a charmer Tim we're going to have to get you back on now but anyway thank you and we will see you soon so I think there's a really interesting point there so there was lots of stuff he said about how small the core group is that court idea that court around Farage that he sort of backed up there but also this idea that there's a genuine tussle for the soul of the EDFfication I think is what he called it so that's the English Defence Force that's the Tommy Robinson law And we've seen that open up this week with those riots at Dover trying to stop people coming in off boats, etc.

49:01And balaclavas. And I have to say, it has really gotten quite dark. There was always a kind of line. It did feel this week like Zahia Yusuf had kind of crossed it. I mean, I was so incensed. And I live in a town that has a lifeboat station. I went up last night. I went down a complete wormhole. I've given myself a direct debit now to the RNLI. And the reason for this is because there's been a lot of outriders of reform that have called the Royal National Lifeboat Institute volunteers traitors. They've said that they're helping facilitate people trafficking. They were, the balaclava lads that were on the shore at Dover were chanting at them.

49:36People risk their lives to save people in the sea. But I really hope the RNLI has had their sort of charitable giving go up. I heard someone who was a lifeboat volunteer on the radio going, I just want to say I'm not a traitor. and I just thought, oh my God. Yeah, you volunteer and you do something really, really valuable for an organisation that I think the country universally adore. Yeah. And you're having to defend yourself as not a threat. I was like, please, just stop now. Well, I thought that was really interesting what Tim Montgomery said, who's obviously a very long-term experienced commentator and analyst from the right of UK politics.

50:22The first I was struck by how he really thinks that there's no way back for the Tories. You know, we've talked a lot about Kemi's improved status in the opinion polls, but he clearly thinks that they are trapped in rural middle class communities in the South and that there's no way back for that in the immediate term. So I think he's got a very bleak analysis about the situation for the right of British politics in this country. I mean, also, you know, what was interesting when he said, I thought it was just slightly over 50 % Lib Lab coalition next election. Now I think it's 80%. I asked him if reform had peaked, he said he didn't know.

51:03And I mean, this is kind of the canary in the coal mine. Again, if you like, you know, Tim was invited into the party, clearly did that in good faith. and he's been, he's made difficult points, he's been a bit disruptive and he's sort of been chewed up and spat out, hasn't he? But it's that sense of, if you've got forward momentum, if you look like you're on the op, you do attract outriders. So people will come to you. You have that magnetism, that gravitational pull. That's part of running a party, isn't it? Exactly. And there is, when we talk about these shifts in politics and pendulum swings and all the rest of it, you can't necessarily measure it, but you can see it when it's happening.

51:42And when things are on the way down, you can see that too. And high profile people like Tim leaving or being chucked out or not able to, you know, operate in a way that maximises his utility even to the party, never mind his own skill base. Suddenly you think, oh, now, wait a minute, have they stalled? Are they in trouble? So he left the Conservatives after decades in the Conservative Party because he thought they just were not in a position to be the standard bearers for the anti-Labour politics, for the right of centre in this country. And now he's out of reform because he thinks they aren't capable of being the standard bearer either.

52:18So it's very bleak for them. For their part, Reform UK has said of Tim Montgomery, we wished him the best for the future and thank him for his support. And Zia Yusuf told GB News, clearly Tim disagrees with me on many things. Nevertheless, I wish him the very best. but I think we are over and out, well out of time. I enjoyed having Tim on. That was interesting. We're going to be back on Tuesday for our subscribers only episode. And if you'd like to get access to that, then our details are in the show notes. You get exclusive access to Tuesday's episode as part of that package. And you get answers to some of your questions on our forum.

52:59And we also, the burner phone's always there. If you do want to get in touch and you don't want to do it through the forum, although you should because you get the most answers there, but you can get in touch through the burner phone. It's always in action. It is 07934 2444. Or you can email us at electoral dysfunction at sky.uk. But goodbye for now. Goodbye. Goodbye.