New Poll: Talarico Leads Paxton Among Latino Voters by 18 Points

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0:34Outfront next, breaking news on this special edition of Outfront. Trump versus Tallarico in Texas. Two men about to hold dueling rallies two miles apart. As a top election forecaster moves 21 races across the country, all in the Democratic direction tonight. And Amy Acton speaking out to CNN after her estranged mother was used in that campaign ad by Vivek Rameswamy. Does she think it backfired on him? And Trump joking a hamburger and a small dessert costs$5 ,000 at Mar-a-Lago. Too bad. As his top economic advisor says the affordability crisis is a, quote, myth. That's a hell of a closing message.

1:09Let's go out front.

1:24And good evening. I'm Erin Burnett. Welcome to this special edition of Outfront Countdown to Election Day. Tonight, Trump versus Tallarico. President Trump crisscrossing Texas all day today. And in any moment, he'll take the stage at a rally for Ken Paxton in Lubbock, Texas, as Paxton's opponent, James Tallarico, is also preparing to take the stage in Lubbock at his own rally. Now, they'll be just about two miles apart. Two miles. Last-minute rallies in a state that should have been an easy win for Republicans. But instead, Trump is making his fifth stop in Texas this election season to try to rally voters for Paxton.

1:55Just listen to Bill Hemmer on Fox News today. Today for the president, he's going down to Texas, a state he won by almost 14 points. I mean, this is unbelievable, right, 24 months ago? I mean, you heard the incredulity in his voice. It is unbelievable. Trump appears to know it, trying to make a plea that voting for Paxton is about patriotism. So on election night, Texas is going to prove that America does not belong to those who hate it. America belongs to those who love it.

2:34And the only choice for proud patriots of Texas is the greatest attorney general in the history of your state. One of the greatest attorney generals in this country. a man I worked with, and I will tell you, he loves your state and he loves our country, a talented guy, Ken Paxson. Please do. But a growing number of Texans don't agree. And a new Univision poll shows Tallarico leading Paxson 50 to 45. Now, that is actually now outside the margin of error. Among Latino voters in Texas, Tallarico is ahead by an even wider margin, 55 to 37. And now, if you just keep in mind, Trump won Latino voters in Texas by 10 points in 2024.

3:16So you can just look back here and do the math. That's a nearly 30 point swing. Nearly 30 points. Now, of course, we'll see if that pans out. It's a poll. But a lot of people are already voting. They've made up their minds. And we do know that Texas is seeing a surge in early voting. Take a look at the numbers here. So far, more than five million people, 5 ,014 ,466 to be exact, have voted early there. That's a lot of people. And some Republican officials are becoming increasingly vocal against Trump's handpicked candidate Paxton. Thomas Phillips is a noted Texas Republican, former Chief Justice of the state Supreme Court, and he writes in a new op-ed today, quote, I am a Republican who won four contested elections on the Republican ticket for Chief Justice of the Texas Supreme Court.

3:58But this year, I will vote for Democrat James Tallarico for U.S. Senator. However exemplary his future conduct might be, Paxton's longstanding reputation will embarrass Texas in ways our state simply cannot afford. Now, we're going to speak with Phillips in just a few moments coming up. But he's not alone. He joins a growing list of prominent Texas Republicans who are coming out against Paxton, including Neal Bush, George W. Bush's brother, H.W. Bush's son, Dade Phelan, the former Texas House speaker, who you saw just on this show last night. And it's not just Texas that Republicans are worried about tonight.

4:33Top election forecaster Larry Sabato has now shifted 21 more midterm races towards Democrats, including Senate races in GOP strongholds, Florida, South Carolina. Larry's going to be here in just a few moments to give us all the new details on that. But what's the plan? The plan if Republicans do suffer major losses in this election? Well, Trump is already looking for a way out. You'll respect the results, whatever happens. I will if they're honest elections. If they're honest elections, it's always that qualifier, right? It's unclear what he considers honest elections, since of course this country has honest elections.

5:08But according to a new Washington Post analysis nearly 600 high-profile right-wing social media accounts, podcasts, and other online media have published more than 7 ,000 statements questioning the election's integrity so far this year. Many of them echo in comments like these today by Trump in Texas. Be careful of the voter fraud. Be careful. We will pass voter identification, proof of citizenship, and the Save America Act to defend our sacred American elections. All right, Arlette Sines is out front in Lubbock where they're going to have those dueling rallies two miles apart, as I said. And Arlette, I know these rallies are two miles apart.

5:48Texas is obviously a massive state population-wise geographically, but they are both together where you are tonight. How worried is Trump about the race tonight? Well, Aaron, he's worried enough that he's making not one but two stops here in Texas. This is actually President Trump's fourth trip to the state since Labor Day, as he is hoping to get the GOP candidate Ken Paxton across the finish line. There is real angst within the Republican Party about whether Paxton will be able to eke out a win here in the state, as Democrat James Teller Rico has also made headway of his own with voters. If you take a look at recent polling, it's really shown that this is an incredibly competitive race in a state that Trump won by double digits just two years ago.

6:30Now, Trump will be here in Lubbock. This is an area that he actually won by 40 points in the past election. So it shows just how red and conservative-leaning this area is. So what Trump is trying to do here is really drive up turnout within his GOP base. As you mentioned, there have been some notable Republican defections saying that they cannot side with Paxton in this contest and instead would side with Tallarico. So what Trump needs to do is make sure that his voters aren't switching to the other side and that they aren't sitting at home in this election. Now, just two miles from here is where Democrat James Tallarico will be tonight.

7:09He has really tried to go into these more rural type of communities to speak with voters. These are areas where Democrats have not won. It's unlikely that Tallarico would win in a place like this. But if he could just siphon off a little bit of that GOP vote, that is something that could help in an incredibly close race. But both of these candidates are really grinding it out to the end. And President Trump is spending significant time here in the state as this is one of those deep red states that is potentially in trouble of flipping to Democrats in just a matter of a week. All right, Arlette, thank you very much in Lubbock and everyone's here with me on set.

7:42Dave Wasserman, let me start with you. And by the way, wonderful to have you here in the flesh. Thank you. Always see you via a remote a remote cam with all of your projections. So let's just start with that. So Texas Senate race is super close. Polls show it. Internal polling obviously shows it that the campaigns are looking at. You have it at Cook Political Report as a toss up. So who do you think has the edge? I guess on a night when you see Tallarico and Lubbock, a place that he doesn't expect to win. But as Arlette said, if he could just siphon some votes, he thinks it would matter. Aaron, Texas is going to decide Senate control, and it's super close right now.

8:14For James Tallarico to make the math work statewide for the first time for a Democrat since 94, he needs three things to happen. He needs big defections from Cornyn voters in suburbs outside DFW and Houston. We're seeing that in the polls of legislative districts in places like Tarrant County, Collin and Denton counties. He also needs big reversion to Democrats among Hispanic voters in South Texas. And we're seeing that in the polls of key congressional races along the border in Hidalgo and Cameron counties. But he also needs low Republican turnout in rural areas. And this is the big question mark because Democrats are going to enter Election Day with a big bank to lead in early votes.

8:54We know that. But we don't know how many rural Republicans are going to show up on Election Day. And the only Republican candidate in a key Senate race who's less popular than Donald Trump in the state they're running is Ken Paxton. So if Donald Trump can lift him just a little bit and juice turnout in those 80, 20 districts in West Texas, East Texas, then maybe he can eke this out. And so does Lubbock make sense then, David? Yes. And well, I mean, if you look at, as Dave said, what's happening with Hispanic voters there is really a big part of this story. You know, a huge swing from just two years ago and a swing from when Ted Cruz was running for the Senate as well a couple of years ago, too.

9:41who, Tallarico has made real inroads in South Texas. And if the president goes and tells people that he doesn't love America, there are a lot of people in South Texas who aren't going to buy that argument. But Paxton is just a big load with those voters. And in terms of Republicans in this poll that you mentioned,

10:03Tallarico was getting 11 percent of Republican voters. that's like twice as much as the last Democratic Senate candidate got. These are big numbers. Turnout is the one thing that Trump is hoping for all over the country and in Texas as well. Are there voters who are reluctant midterm voters who he can get off the bench? And I think they've decided as much as these rallies are disruptive because Trump always says something that makes news in an unwelcome way that it's worth it because they're going to get the downside of Trump and they need to get a little of the upside of Trump and persuade some of these people who are a little disillusioned that, yeah, they got to come out.

10:43Bessie? Well, Democrats and Republicans are playing a very different game right now. Democrats like James Tallarico feel confident enough to go into places and get new kinds of voters, kinds of voters they haven't gone after before. Republicans need to turn out every last base voter that there is. They're not thinking about independents, moderates, undecideds. They don't have that luxury. So that's why you're hearing a lot of these base arguments around the country and why on the Dem side, you're kind of hearing some some new talk. You're hearing Democrats like Rob Sand talk to farmers. Right.

11:19A reliably conservative voting base about coming over to the other side. This is a very different playing field for Republicans than it is. Now, we've also heard, you know, you just went through, you went through suburban voters. You went through Hispanic voters, rural voters. Jamal, you know, it's interesting because in the context of all the reporting up in Michigan about whether Abdul El-Sayed has failed his outreach to black voters. Today in Texas, Tracy Gibbons is the first black chairwoman of the Harris County Democratic Party. It's the largest county in Texas, obviously, by population. She told The Washington Sun that most black men she talks to at local barbershops don't even recognize Tallarico's name.

11:54as part of, in her case, a fear that he is not going to have turnout in the black community. Do you think that's a real risk? It is. It always is because Democratic candidates historically do a poor job of reaching into the black community to meet people where they are and bringing them into the conversation. I think Tallarico has been a bit different. His campaign from the very beginning has been an inspiring campaign, a national campaign, one that I paid attention to from the very beginning. You know, he was recently at HBCUs and homecomings and really hitting the ground in those spaces where a lot of black voters exist and black voters are not going to be voting for Paxton.

12:37That's not going to happen. And to Trump's upside or lack thereof, Trump doesn't have any upside left, in my opinion. He's lied to the American people about holding the Epstein class accountable. He's lied about us going to war. We're in a war. He's lied about prices coming down. Trump has lied. Paxton is a terrible candidate. Tallarico has been great. And I think he's going to have enough turnout, particularly with the Latino voters that you mentioned, where he's going to pull us off. We should point out that in the early vote, there's an indication that younger Hispanic voters who haven't participated before are coming out in large numbers, which may be indicative of a trend will continue through Election Day.

13:21And when you consider how they are reacting to how the president has handled the immigration issue, that could be a real impetus for much higher Hispanic turning. I mean, with that poll, we just saw a possibly 28-point swing if that happened. Also keep in mind, in 2018, Beto O 'Rourke came within two and a half points of beating Ted Cruz. But today, eight years later, Texas' eligible electorate is four points less white than it was in 2018. So if younger black voters turn out and we see a big swing among Hispanic voters, the math could work. That could do it. So, Dave, you also have just shifted two governor's races.

14:00These are important ones. Which ones and where? So we shifted Nebraska and Kansas into more competitive columns. And look, Trump's numbers among independent voters nationally are simply barbaric. 25 percent approval. There's a new there's a new word barbaric. We haven't seen that since since, you know, 2006 under George W. Bush. And when when that's the case, strange things can happen. And remember back in 06, where Democrats notched some surprise upsets. It was a lot of the Midwest that reacted badly to war. And it's kind of a uniquely dovish region of the country. Now, this is not Bob Dole's Kansas anymore because it's actually a pretty white collar state.

14:41It's not just the growth of the Casey suburbs. Wichita has a thriving aerospace and R &D sector. And the Democrat here is a populist progressive who's making data centers in opposition to AI a centerpiece of her campaign. I think she'll still come up short, but the Senate race there is tight. I was just in Nebraska, Erin. And it's a very unique race there because Jim Pillen, the Republican, the third least popular governor in the country by approval rating, he's gotten kind of mired in this emergency no-bid contract scandal. The Democrat is a distant cousin of Tim Walz by marriage, Lynn Walz, a former state senator.

15:15And there is a third party candidate on the ballot who's from the America First Party. So that race is close to single digits. So amidst all this, Essie, Trump, a Trump advisor tells CNN that Trump has personally approved allowing the loser in the Brazilian presidential election to seek refuge in the U.S. They had tried to confiscate his passport. He was being charged with all sorts of crimes. He didn't give over his passport, and Trump said he could come to the United States. And that's already an incredibly unprecedented moment. Bolsonaro just lost the son. His father, of course, is serving time, money laundering, and under investigation.

15:55So what does this mean? I mean, is he going to show up at Mar-a-Lago, Flavio Bolsonaro? I would have no doubt. Trump has historically given comfort to incredibly unsavory characters. And, you know, it's a spectrum, right? When he in 2016 welcomed in, you know, the Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys and the white nationalists, I think that changed the Republican Party in the country for a really long time. but also, you know, sexual predators. These do not make him squeamish. He is happy to endorse them. And where he has no tolerance is for folks like the squad, American citizens that he's telling to go home to their countries.

16:36It is a complete flip of the way America was sort of set up by the founding fathers to eschew the Bolsonaro's, eschew the Orbans and the dictators and the Putins and welcome in the refugees, the immigrants. the doers, the makers. He sees things completely opposite. He already called the Brazilian elections rigged and now giving Carver to essentially a fugitive. I mean, it is incredible. I mean, saying that the, what was it, 2020 election was stolen led to an insurrection. My third day, you know, I was sworn in January 3rd, three days later, they were climbing the walls and attacking the House.

17:12So this is his grift. This is what he does. I think the American people are tired of it. That's why Republicans couldn't even hold town halls in their districts because of Trump and Doge and the nonsense that's come out of the White House. And so hopefully we'll see the blue tsunami we need to see on election day. To bring it back to the initial discussion, he raised the admission of beef from Argentina, from Brazil, ostensibly to lower beef prices here. It didn't really work, but it did help his allies in those countries. So, you know, he is that actually has a tangible impact on ranchers and transactional.

17:52Yes. In Texas, in Kansas. In a negative way. In a negative. Right. Right. So there's a linkage to doing favors for your friends overseas can have political ramification for you at home. Hurt farmers here. All right. Thank you all very much. And next, the vice president going off on the Democrats nominee for Senate in Michigan, calling him a psychopath and a cancer. Do words like that stick or are they going to backfire big time? John King's on the road in Michigan tonight with his magic wall. And as we mentioned, a top election forecaster shifting 21 races towards Democrats tonight. Dave Wasserman's friend Larry Sabato is seeing some changes seven days out.

18:25He'll be with us. And as Trump campaigns tonight in Texas, a longtime Republican and former chief justice of the Texas Supreme Court. Tonight, coming out, backing James Tallarico. He'll tell you why next. Stand by your break, master. In three, two, one. Effect. Ready to break, please.

18:50Hey, I'm Anderson Cooper. On my podcast, All There Is, we explore grief and loss in all its complexities. My guest is Lil Jon. He's a rapper, DJ, and producer known for hits like Get Low and Turn Down For What. In February 2026, his 27-year-old son Nathan went missing near Nathan's home in Georgia. Three days later, his body was found in a pond nearby. Lil Jon has a memoir that just came out called I Only Shout So You Can Hear Me. It takes time to heal. And I kept myself busy that I didn't let myself mourn. I needed to laugh again. I needed to be silly and interact with people and feel other people's energy and make people happy too.

19:35We have to share so other people can see that they can get through it too. Talking grief, building community. That's what the podcast is all about. This is all there is. Listen and follow wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Dr. Sanjay Gupta, host of the Chasing Life podcast. You may have noticed gambling doesn't require a casino anymore. You can just open up your phone. It's designed to keep us coming back or maybe never even leaving in the first place. We're going to talk to Dr. Timothy Fong, co-director of UCLA's Gambling Studies program. you're going to learn what your brain is really chasing when you place a bet, and also importantly, how to keep the game from playing you.

20:16Gambling addiction, gambling disorder is the hidden addiction. You can't smell it, you can't taste it, you can't see it, you can't have a urine drug test. Who are we talking about here, Professor? Who's the most likely demographic to be affected by this? Literally any single human on earth. Listen to Chasing Life, streaming now, wherever you get your podcasts.

20:41And welcome back to this special edition of Outfront Countdown to the Election. We have breaking news out of Michigan in one of the most closely watched Senate races. Vice President J.D. Vance campaigning in Michigan and going scorched earth against the Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed. Vance, without any evidence, tying El-Sayed to the horrific, deadly riots erupting across France. What we saw in France, the hatred, the ingratitude, the desire to destroy rather than the desire to build, that exact same cancer is what has corrupted Abdul El -Sayed.

21:21Bordering on racist or just full on racist? The insults actually started before the vice president even boarded Air Force Two this morning. I think Abdul El-Sayed is a little bit of a psychopath. Abdul El-Sayed, who may be more than any Democrat running in the nation, has engaged in the kind of explicitly anti-white racial hatred that has become common on the Democratic Party. All this is early voting is well underway in Michigan. About one and a half million ballots have already been cast. 1.4 to be exact. It's up 15 % from the same time in the 2022 midterm cycle. That's obviously the important comparison.

21:58And John King is out front in Detroit with his mini magic wall. So, John, what are you hearing from voters? 1.4 million of them have already voted. We went to a couple of early voting sites today, Aaron. You're right. I have the mini magic with me. We went to one in Dearborn, Michigan. Again, that's here in Wayne County, the largest county, Detroit, in the suburbs. Dearborn also happens to be a majority Arab American city. Very important to Dr. Al-Sayed in this campaign. A steady stream of voters there. We went up to another early voting site just to the north in Oakland County in the suburbs.

22:27Let me try to use my finger. Yep, the mini magic's getting a little chilly out here as the wind blows. Oakland County as well. We also stopped by the county Republican headquarters there. Those two counties account for about 30 % of the vote here, so they are absolutely critical. Detroit and the close-in suburbs in this race. A lot of energy at the Oakland County Republican Party, phone banking there trying to help Mike Rogers and other Republican candidates. It's interesting, you mentioned the vice president's attack. Remember the president himself was here, he called El Sayed a jihadist. Democrats say when they hear that, for the most part, they think it's a desperate Republican effort to turn out dispirited mega base voters in the rural areas of Michigan.

23:01They say that the Republican base simply is dispirited because of the price of the gas, because of the Iran war and other things. But we visited a United Auto Workers phone bank in Taylor, Michigan. Downriver, just south of Detroit, a white working class, some African-Americans, too, union workers. One of our all-over-the-map voters, Walter Robinson, was there. Are those attacks working? Listen. You've had the president out here saying he's a jihadist. And you have Mike Rogers raising questions about either too liberal or Muslim brotherhood. Is that hitting in with union members? Well, I've had a couple of people that tell me that they don't understand why the UAW is endorsing a foreigner.

23:43And I had to tell them Dr. El-Sahid was born here in Michigan. He was born in the United States. He's an American citizen. And so they were taken aback because I guess they could only get the information that they have been kind of scanning. And they think just by his name he's a foreigner.

24:07So Aaron, some proof right there that is it at least breaking through. These are union members calling union members and being asked, why are we supporting a foreigner still? Walter Robinson, he's been in our voters group for more than three years. He says, even though those questions are coming up and he's a bit concerned about them, he says he's more confident now about Al-Sayed's chances than he was in our most recent conversation, which was just two weeks ago. So, you know, you're in Michigan, obviously, for many reasons, but you're trying to understand what's working and not working in the final days.

24:35And obviously, in that campaign, I mean, it is just so fraught when you hear some of the allegations. I mean, as I said, you know, there's racial allegations being thrown around, religious. I mean, what can you tell us? Well, in this race, incredibly close race, enormous amount of money coming in. This is a margin of error race that is going to come down to Election Day. And, you know, we always say seven days is a long time in politics. Well, seven days is a long time when you have a race like this. So we have to watch how it plays out. Again, Democrats are feeling a little better now than they were a week or so ago, but they acknowledge that this is a very tough race.

25:07So my biggest question as I travel five states in these final five days, in the final week, is the president has the bully pulpit. Republicans have a financial advantage. Why are we seeing no evidence? There are one or two exceptions. This race might be one of them. But why aren't we seeing races where they can at least stabilize the environment or improve the environment? Again, one or two or three, you might find them around the country. But why isn't it getting better nationally? Erin, I just want to show you this. This is the main reason as we travel and talk to people. Eight months ago, the president decided to start a war in Iran.

25:36This map shows you the price of gas increasing since that war started. And look at the key. If you see a purple state or county, the price of gas has gone up more than 70 % where you live. If you see this more pinkish color here, which is a lot of America, especially a lot of the Midwest where these battlegrounds are, the price of gas has gone up 60 % or more. So the war in Iran, the president's choices, the price of energy, especially as it gets cold, gas, diesel, and now here comes home heating oil. That's the president's problem. All right, John King, thank you very much. And more breaking news tonight, one of America's top election forecasters, shifting 21 midterm races in the Democratic direction.

26:12Larry Sabato's crystal ball moving House, Senate, and governor's races toward Democrats. And as John just said, right, we're a week to go here. So Larry Sabato is out front. So Larry, you're shifting 16 House races, states across the country towards Democrats. What's driving this happening right now, a week out? Well, the very factor that John King just identified, for one thing, you know, it's not just gas prices. It's the fact there's a direct correlation there with food prices. And then on top of that, almost every day you hear another corruption story about the Trump White House or Trump himself or his kids.

26:48You connect all of this. Don't forget the Iran war. you connect all of it together and people are unhappy. And frankly, they've been unhappy for some time. And I think the reason why it isn't stabilizing, to use John's term, is that people already made up their minds. That's why so many people have voted early. Yeah. I mean, the early vote numbers obviously are pretty incredible in state after state. I know there's three races on the Senate map that you're moving in the Democratic direction. Those are North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida, and all to differing degrees, right? I guess, Larry, so if we could look at South Carolina, Senator Darlene Graham's race got moved from likely Republican to lean Republican, of course, running against Annie Andrews.

27:29What are the chances that Democrats take back control of the Senate next week? Where do you stand on that tonight? As we sit now and not knowing what Trump is going to pull an October surprises, plural, in a number of states, and it will happen in the last week. I would say Democrats have a pretty good chance of getting 51 or 52 seats. And there'll be a lot of people who are watching who are saying, it's 55. That's what I hear constantly. No, I'd say 51, 52 is a pretty good guess for right now. All right. And you just moved two governors' races Democratic direction as well, Arizona and Vermont.

28:04In Arizona, that's the Democratic incumbent, Katie Hobbs, the governor there, her race going from lean Democratic to likely Democratic. And, you know, we've been hearing a lot in Arizona. I mean, there have been, you know, some people trying to make the case of, oh, well, Arizona is, you know, less of the Democratic push than other places. Obviously, what you're showing here would indicate otherwise. What's driving the shift? What's driving the shift is that the Republicans in Arizona have not adapted to the changes in the Arizona population, and they continue to be obsessed with 2020 and some of the more extreme characters who insist that the election was stolen in Arizona and other places.

28:42And until they get over that phase, if they ever do, Democrats are going to win in a state that if you look at the numbers, the Republicans ought to be winning. All right, Larry Sabato, I appreciate you and thank you very much. It's always good to see you. And next, as I said, Trump right now is in Texas. He's on the stage now. You're looking at him live in Lubbock as another high profile Republican splits with his party, a former chief justice in Texas. Republican is now backing James Tallarico. He's out front next. And breaking news, Amy Acton just sitting down and speaking with CNN, responding to the latest attacks from Vivek Ramaswamy and the attack ad using her estranged mother.

29:35And welcome back to this special edition of Outfront Countdown to Election Night. The breaking news, you're looking at live pictures of President Trump's rally in Lubbock, Texas, where he just took the stage a few moments ago. And Democrat James Tallarico will be rallying supporters there just two miles down the road in just a little bit. So President Trump, as you can see, already on the stage. A lot of activity in Texas. We're a week out from Election Day. Already, many people have voted. And out front now is Thomas Phillips, the former Republican chief justice of the Texas Supreme Court. He is supporting Tallarico in the Texas Senate race.

30:03And I very much appreciate your time, Justice Phillips. So let me just ask you, as you're a longtime Republican, and I know that that's an important part of who you are. What is it about James Tallarico, who is a Democrat, that has made you decide to support him? Well, there's several reasons. First, I think Congress has not been active enough in several decades in legislating. And in particular, the Senate has not done an adequate job of advising and consenting on presidential appointments. So I start off thinking this, if ever there's a time for more Democrats in the Senate, it's right now. But second, and from a much broader view, James Tallarico has impressed me as a candidate who wants to be representative of all Texans.

30:54And when you have one party that nominates a moderate who's trying to work together to solve the many problems our country has, and the other party nominates someone who's purely a party ideologue, I think that's a pretty easy choice. And third are just the respective qualities of the candidates. Tallarico's campaign has addressed the issues. Both campaigns have been pretty negative, but he's devoted a lot of time to talking about bringing Texas together, solving the problems we have. And the Republican campaign has been almost entirely negative. So it's interesting, Justin. I appreciate you laying out all three of those things.

31:39Actually, the first point, I think, is one that could speak to people across the country as well. They talk about what is the role of Congress as a check and balance and frustration that so many Americans have with that role's lack of fulfillment. You know, you laid out your decision in an op-ed. And on this, you said, Justice, that you would vote for Republicans this election, just not Ken Paxton among them. And then you continued to say why you wouldn't vote for him. You wrote back, you wrote in part, quote, Paxton's longstanding reputation will embarrass Texas in ways our state simply cannot afford.

32:12Even the most fervent Republican would do well this year to remember President John Kennedy's warning that sometimes party loyalty demands too much. Now, Justice Phillips, when you say Ken Paxton's reputation will embarrass Texas, what worries you most? Well, it's just been the ongoing litany of controversy surrounding him ever since he was in the state Senate before and during his first race for attorney general in 2014. team. And it seems to just be a slow, steady drip, drip of accusations and complaints and worse than complaints, charges brought by former employees against him. And it seems to me they've not been adequately answered.

33:04And right now we need a senator for the second most populous and second largest state in the nation who will hit the ground running and not be distracted by those kinds of controversies. So, you know, when you talk about the negative tone of the campaign, you know, we've heard a lot of things. You know, J.D. Vance has sort of outright said that, you know, made comments that make it clear that, you know, he's saying that Mr. Tallery goes gay. And, you know, you've heard a variety of other insults. Let me just play a few of them. The other guy's a freak. Talafrico. They call him Talafrico. Can you imagine?

33:46He's a vegetarian. I love you too, sir. In a totally platonic way, to be clear. I'm the vice president, not James Talarico. It's obvious to the president and the vice president of the United States. What do you make of the tone of those attacks, the tenor of those attacks coming from the leaders of the Republican Party? Well, I think it's unfortunate. As I said, there are a number of really difficult issues facing our state and nation, and the parties have different solutions by and large to those. And that debate would allow people to cast an intelligent vote. Then they can factor into that the respective character of the candidates and how important that is to them, how overriding a factor that is.

34:39But to have nothing but attacks, really, that my party has brought in this Senate race ever since its inception, I think does a disservice to the whole body politic. Well, Justice Phillips, I appreciate your time and thank you very much for being willing to come on and sharing your thoughts about this. Thank you. Well, thank you for having me. Bye-bye. Bye-bye. And next, the breaking news. More than a million votes already cast in Ohio. Amy Acton just moments ago sitting down with CNN, revealing the impact of the deeply personal and traumatic attacks, including the ad involving her own estranged mother.

35:19And Trump's seemingly final sales pitch to voters. You'll be my guest at Mar-a-Lago. The problem is that for$5 ,000, The most you'll be able to buy is a hamburger and maybe a small dessert. Funny. Harry Anton will tell us something we don't know next.

35:56Breaking news, Ohio governor candidate Amy Acton opening up about the painful, painful, traumatic history that is now thrust front and center into her race for governor, telling CNN just moments ago she's learning things about her estranged mother that she hasn't had time to process. and accusing her opponent of exploiting her mother in that horrible attack ad. We're going to bring you a response in just a moment as we are getting these new early voting numbers out of Ohio just to show you more than one million mail-in ballots are already in with seven days to go. Lauren Fox is out front now. She just sat down with Acton.

36:27So, Lauren, I mean, you had a chance to talk to her about what it's like to have the trauma of childhood rape and abuse suddenly thrust into the forefront of this race. What did she tell you? Yeah, I mean, this has been a really difficult week for her campaign, but she argues that everywhere she goes, she is hearing from voters who want to tell her their own story. She says this has actually been a way for her to connect with them. Here's what she said is so different about this moment than when she was a young girl going through this many years ago. Here's what she told us. You know, you find early on that it's hard for people to hear stories, and you just learn to hold a lot of it inside.

37:13But as I got older, certainly as Jenna and I grew up, we would talk more about things. But there are things I am learning right now that I didn't know as more is coming out. The last time I saw my mother was when I was 12. My brother was 9. So I'm hearing things that I don't even have time to process during a campaign. You know, we have six more days left in this race, so I'm so focused on it. But things that have happened to her since is even news to me. Yeah, I mean, can you talk a little bit about what you're learning or what is new to you? Well, as I said before, you know, she was clearly not well.

37:52And that's why I think it's so horrible that she was exploited in this ad and the way she was. But some of the things you learn about, like the story that I just learned about her being in a car homeless with kittens, is something I experienced as a kid. My mom actually loved animals, so she took in a lot of strays. But I remember a time, you know, where we had endless litters of kittens and puppies. and I actually experienced something as a kid where an animal suffocated in a car we were in because she had everything piled in it. So that's the kind of story you can't easily tell people. But I keep saying it's not just me, it's not my childhood.

38:37Half our kids are living in poverty. You know, we have so many people struggling right now. That's why we're running, to make life better for people, to help give people a way to stay above that line. but these are real things you know they're hard truths and and that's what's motivated my entire career as a doctor and you can see if you ever look back at the issues you know i don't hope my whole story is not one of being a victim i don't feel that way i feel a lot of strengths came from it but it's it's the work i do to try to make sure that no one's left behind that people aren't invisible or unseen.

39:16And of course, we are standing in Liberty High School in Youngstown, Ohio. This is kind of a homecoming for Amy Acton. And this is also a place that will be central to her campaign if they hope to win in just a week's time. That is because this is an area that Democrats used to have a strong hold over, that Republicans have been able to make major inroads And Democrats are going to have to win this place back if they hope to send Amy Acton to the gubernatorial mansion and if they hope to send Sherrod Brown to the United States Senate. Erin. All right, Lauren, thank you very much with that interview with Amy Acton.

39:54And next, Trump's top economic advisor saying this tonight. Affordability crisis, it's a myth. You might almost think that that was, you know, sort of a skit, but that actually happened. That was real on live TV. Harry Anton is in the magic wall to tell us something we don't know.

40:24Tell Me Something I Don't Know is brought to you by Calci Prediction Market.

40:41And welcome back to this special edition of Outfront, Countdown to the Election. I'm at the magic wall. Harry Anton is here. We've got more breaking news from the campaign trail. President Trump is in Texas, of course. He is testing out, OK, you ready for this, a strange new message. I shall call it strange, Harry. If this is if you're trying to tackle affordability, this is strange. Here's the president. You'll be my guest at Mar-a-Lago. The problem is that for$5 ,000, the most you'll be able to buy is a hamburger and maybe a small dessert. I don't know. I'm not even sure you could buy that. No, don't go there.

41:16That's not a good place. If you're price conscious.

41:24Sort of the most bizarre let them eat cake. It's odd. Trump's top economist, Kevin Hassett, had the same message, and he put it in another surprising way. Affordability crisis, it's a myth. And sure, they can talk about gasoline. President Trump's right that it's going to drop like a rock soon. But the bottom line is, if you adjust for inflation, you adjust for changes in prices, that Americans are a trillion dollars better off than they were when President Trump took office. it's Harry Anton's out front to tell us something we don't know Harry, I don't know Affordability crisis is a myth Yeah, unbelievable Unbelievable You know, Aaron, if we look back at the 2024 map, there was a whole heck of a lot of red on it, especially in this area We're talking about the Midwest right here But how do you change all this red and you make it blue?

42:18Well, I'll show you how you could do it The way you could do it is pretty simple You can go and you can say, let's take a look at the gas prices changes since the beginning of the Iran war. Oh, my goodness gracious. And you can zoom in on the Midwest and you can just see those prices are up like an absolute rocket. We are talking gas prices rising. We're talking of at least 45 percent upwards in some of these counties. You know, you go into Iowa. What are we talking about? My goodness gracious. Some of these counties, the gas prices are up 73 percent. My goodness gracious. Wow, you look at the pink and purple, right?

42:54Yeah, look at that. 63 percent plus. 63, 63 percent plus, 73 percent. And you know what? This really just tells you the name of the game. Look at this. Trump's net approval rating on gas prices among voters in the key Midwestern states. Negative 54 points, way down there with the Little Mermaid. All right. So, obviously, can you look at where gas prices were before? Yeah. Okay. So, you know, we're talking about the Midwest. but you can see it's all around the country where gas prices are way, way up. And you know what I will note is the gas price, gas price spike, I have it as 41%. I was just rejiggering the numbers.

43:30And you know what the updated number, this is actually low. It's 43%. It's a 43 % nationwide for February 28th to October 27th. That is the largest such spike that we have seen during that period in at least 35 years. My goodness gracious. Which is why telling people affordability is a myth is... Bad? Misses the moment, misses the tone. Misses the complete story. Tell me something else I don't know. I'll tell you something else that you don't know, Aaron Burnett, and we'll start off right here. Look at this. Look at the party trust. Party trusted more on gas prices. Well, it turns out that when gas prices go through the roof, look at this.

44:07Republicans plus 17 the last midterm. Now Democrats plus 12 points. And if you look at the cashier prediction markets, what do you see here? You see that the chance that gas prices will be above$4 by election day. Look at this. 98 % chance, way up from where we were just two months ago when it was just a 30 % chance. Right, right. And futures markets don't show any dropping like a rock either. No, no, no. They are staying high above$4. All right. Thank you very much, Harry Enten. Thank you, my friend. And thanks so much to all of you for joining us on this special edition of Outfront. AC 360 starts now.

44:38I'm Adi Cornish. I'm Ari Shapiro, and it's Engagement Party. It is Engagement Party. And we get to talk about what we're obsessed with, what we're engaged with, what we need to process with a friend. Her name is Amy O'Dell. She is a fashion writer, blogger. But the thing is, she's a journalist who's written about the sacred cows of fashion. And yes, I mean, Gwyneth Paltrow and Anna Wintour. She has done biographies of both. And she is also the sort of rare fashion writer who, at this point, kind of outside the system. And so the question that we're going to try to tackle is... Fashion terrible now.

45:08Well, no, I mean, I would phrase it as how do you develop a personal style in the age of AI slop? You know, on social media, like creators have to try a whole bunch of different things and see what catches and then they make it over and over and over again. The same thing happens with clothing. So they're sort of seeding the market, seeding the Internet with all of these different ideas. And then they can see what sells and then they can just make them really fast. Follow Engagement Party. Wherever you get your podcasts.