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Erin Burnett OutFront

27 Oct 2026 · 48m · 19 chapters

Episode artwork

Trump: “Don’t Give a Damn” About Gas Prices

In short

A special election-edition political news discussion focused on gas prices, affordability, corruption, and voter turnout in key Senate races, plus election-monitoring and controversial campaign figures.

Guests/backgrounds

Erin Burnett (host). Kevin Liptak (reporter in Mississippi). Van Jones and Bill (panel commentators). Harry Enten (election forecaster, “Magic Wall”). Mike Lawler (mentioned as a communicator). Thomas Phillips (former Republican Texas Supreme Court chief justice; endorses Democrat James Tallarico). David Beasley (former Republican SC governor; endorses Democrat Annie Andrews). Dade Phelan (former Texas House speaker; endorses Tallarico). Bill Graves (former Kansas governor; backs moderate Dem Adam Hamilton). Doni O’Sullivan (reporter in Minneapolis). Dave Wasserman (Cook Political Report). Kyung La (reporter in Nevada). Javier Barajas, Fernando Perez (Nevada restaurant workers/owners).

Key claims

Trump’s “don’t give a damn” gas-price rhetoric and “making a fortune” messaging undermine Republicans; gas spikes tied to wars (Ukraine/Iran). Democrats’ corruption-plus-costs message is resonating; Republicans are spending in “deep red” states (Mississippi/Kansas) due to weakness. DOJ plans 1,000 election monitors per state; Republicans break ranks to back Democrats.

Notable examples

Mississippi voters unaware of the election; Kansas Senate toss-up (Dem win gives ~90% chance of Senate majority); Texas/SC Republican-to-Dem endorsements; Hassan Piker with Ilhan Omar; Nevada “no tax on tips” not offsetting rising prices (gas/diesel, food costs).

Written by AI. May contain mistakes.

Chapters

1:54

Trump's Voter Fraud Claims

Discussion on Trump's recent tactics and remarks regarding voter fraud.

“Welcome to a special edition Countdown to Election Day out front tonight.”
3:22

Gas Prices and Trump's Claims

Analysis of Trump's comments on gas prices and inflation.

“But remember, in 2022, let's just talk about gas prices.”
6:06

Voter Awareness in Mississippi

Coverage of voter sentiments and awareness levels in Mississippi ahead of the election.

“I looked at one hell of a beautiful ass before, Nicki Minaj.”
7:40

Democratic Strategies in Elections

Discussion on the Democratic Party's strategies and challenges in the upcoming election.

“So it does seem as if in addition to an enthusiasm problem, there may be an awareness problem that Republicans are fighting here as well.”
12:16

Corruption and Public Sentiment

Exploration of public concerns regarding corruption and its impact on elections.

“Yeah, I think the corruption message is resonating and is a way to tie everything together.”
14:01

Corruption and Costs in Politics

Discussion on how political corruption intersects with economic affordability, focusing on Trump's distractions.

“I mean, I wonder if they had a conversation.”
16:50

Trump's Disconnect with Gas Prices

Analysis of Trump's comments about gas prices and his perceived lack of concern for the American people's struggles.

“Now, Democrats have their own baggage, but the key number to keep in mind is 22 percent approval rating from Donald Trump among independents.”
19:05

Democratic Candidates and Populist Energy

Exploration of how new Democratic candidates are bringing populist energy to their campaigns amid Trump's decline.

“MAGA is very frustrated that he went against his no forever war promise and it's killing him with independence because people know that if you stop the Iran war, gas prices go down.”
20:18

Republican Concerns in Kansas Senate Race

Discussion on the Republican concerns regarding the upcoming Senate race in Kansas and its historical significance.

“Go back to the point you were making about the money coming in late.”
20:48

Polling Predictions and Election Insights

Examination of current polling data and its implications for the upcoming election, including potential undercounting of Republicans.

“And Trump promised a boom, but some Nevada workers say they're getting a bust.”
Show all 19 chapters
23:02

Election Night Countdown and Texas Politics

Updates on the Texas Senate race, including Republican endorsements for Democratic candidates and the significance of early voting.

“Vance rallying support for struggling Republican Senator Roger Marshall.”
28:20

Republican Endorsements of Democrats in Texas

Discussion on prominent Texas Republicans endorsing Democrats ahead of elections.

“Thomas Phillips, the former Republican chief justice of the Texas Supreme Court, endorsing the Democratic Senate candidate, James Tallarico.”
30:20

The Shift in Republican Loyalty

Analyzing the trend of Republicans across states endorsing Democrats and their motivations.

“And we're kind of seeing that in the turnout at the polls right now.”
32:45

Election Monitoring and Controversies

Examining the implications of the DOJ's election monitoring initiatives.

“I mean, some of these candidates that you're talking about are people who have focused on pragmatism.”
36:05

Hassan Piker and Democratic Controversies

Exploring the impact of streamer Hassan Piker on Democratic candidates and elections.

“And we have some breaking news out of Minnesota right now.”
39:40

Economic Challenges in Nevada

Highlighting the economic struggles faced by residents in Nevada leading up to elections.

“When you were out there with Abdul in Michigan, there were so many of them that were just outraged that you would be campaigning with him.”
42:01

Impact of Trump's Economic Policies on Nevada

Discussion on Trump's promises for restaurant workers and their real-world impact.

“at Barajas' restaurant to help working families in Nevada.”
43:40

Struggles of Service Workers

Service workers share their challenges with high costs and policy impacts.

“I've been doing this for over 20 years, and I never feel like this before.”
46:31

Fashion in the Age of AI

Discussion on how creators navigate fashion amidst AI influences and trends.

“So they're sort of seeding the market, seeding the internet with all of these different ideas.”
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Transcript

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1:04Out front next, breaking news. Trump campaigning in Mississippi eight days before the election. He's about to speak, and he's trying another tactic now, offering cash to anyone who finds voter fraud. Plus, a top Texas Republican endorses Democrat James Tallarico, as a top South Carolina Republican endorses the Democrat in the Senate race there instead of Lindsey Graham's sister. Are more Republicans getting fed up with Trump? And Hassan Piker, the lightning rod influencer, about to take the stage with Congresswoman Ilhan Omar. We are there live. Let's go out front.

1:53And good evening. I'm Erin Burnett. Welcome to a special edition Countdown to Election Day out front tonight. Trump is about to speak in Mississippi any moment. As you can see the rally room there, he will defend a Republican Senate seat that has been trending in the wrong direction for the GOP, which is part of Trump's deep red state tour, states where Republicans should be banking on easy wins. Tonight, as the president and his party face growing headwinds, though, Trump is now resorting to offering cash. And he's done that a few times on the campaign trail. But in this specific case, it is a cash reward for finding voter fraud.

2:26Voter fraud already punishable by up to five years in prison. Trump saying anybody reporting voter fraud in the past elections or the upcoming 2026 midterm election will be paid$1 million upon the arrest and conviction of those that created the fraud, Trump wrote on Truth Social today. Which follows his 1 ,323 word screed against comedian Bill Maher, which is his longest social media post ever. Calling Maher in part a complete and total loser and a hopeless guy. And just to put some context around this, about the time that the president spent on this, George Washington's first inaugural address was only about 100 words longer.

3:03It took 10 whole minutes to deliver. So today, Vice President Vance maybe realized that a screed like that and all that time spent on Bill Maher was not a good use of the president's time. He wanted to refocus the conversation on gas prices. I want to speak a little bit to the undecided voters out there. You will hear many say that gas prices are too high, that there's still so much work to do on correcting the terrible Biden inflation, the highest inflation that we saw in 50 years in our country. And I understand that. I agree with it. But remember, in 2022, let's just talk about gas prices. Remember in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and gas prices skyrocketed?

3:49They skyrocketed, by the way, far higher then than they are today. They skyrocket every time some tin pot dictator decides to throw a tantrum. First of all, according to a new CNN analysis of AAA data, the average price of gas during Trump's second term is now more expensive than it was during the Biden era, as you can see. And here's the reason it keeps skyrocketing. It's the war itself, but it's specifically every time somebody specific throws a tantrum. We're going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong. The entire country could be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night.

4:30We hit them hard yesterday, and we're going to hit them again hard today. We've got to go down there and bomb the hell out of them. And he says those things, and the prices skyrocketed. It became the most obvious trade in the books for traders all year long. Interesting Vance put those words around it. But now, with the election just eight days away, nearly 30 million Americans have already voted, which is stunning. The majority of people probably will have voted by Election Day. Concerns about gas prices first and foremost, along with corruption on their list. A new CBS poll shows that voters think if Republicans win the election, there will be more corruption rather than less by a margin of about two to one.

5:1052, as you can see, to 27%. That's an incredible margin. And that's a fear greater than if Democrats win, as you can see. And part of the reason why so many people may be concerned is part of what President Trump said this weekend. I don't give a damn I'm going to say it. We'll make it a freaking fortune. Our country is getting stronger and stronger all the time. And those pump prices are going to come down.

5:38You heard him. He said he's making a freaking fortune. I mean, in fact, according to Forbes, Trump is making a fortune, about$3 billion since he was reelected. And I'm not getting into the rest of his family here or his insider circle or his ambassador or anybody else. As for those pump prices that he said will come down, the question is how, of course, and when Trump has not been able to do anything to change the situation fundamentally with gas prices. So instead, he chose to spend that time trashing Bill Maher and this. I looked at one hell of a beautiful ass before, Nicki Minaj. But I looked at his ass.

6:19And then I looked at his legs. And I said, his ass is like a pile of muscle. And I stood right over here and I examined his ass. And I looked and I watched up and down. I looked at his ass. I swear you need a comedian like Bill Maher to make a comment about that. Kevin Liptak, meantime, is out front in Mississippi, where Trump is expected to take the stage any moment now. And, Kevin, I know you've been talking to voters there. What have they been telling you ahead of Trump's visit?

6:51Yeah, and we're in a pretty deep red part in Mississippi, so I don't think it's a surprise that a lot of these voters still think pretty highly of him. They were somewhat less enthusiastic about Cindy Hyde-Smith, who is the Republican senator who the president is coming here to stump for. One young man I talked to said he actually didn't know that much about her at all. Another woman who said that the first two years of Trump's term were pretty bumpy, thought it had been pretty bumpy for Cindy Hyde-Smith as well. And neither of these people were committed to voting for her, which I think is pretty remarkable for two people who are coming to a Trump rally.

7:28It actually was even more striking among people who were not coming here. You know, as I was walking around town talking to people, a not insignificant number seemed vaguely unaware that there was an election happening at all. And even on the entire drive through Mississippi that I took earlier today, I didn't see a single yard sign. So it does seem as if in addition to an enthusiasm problem, there may be an awareness problem that Republicans are fighting here as well. And Democrats really do think that this could present a huge opportunity for them. Cindy Hydesmith, even Republicans will acknowledge, has been an uneven campaigner.

8:04She hasn't held as many events. She's been out-fundraised. The Democrat that they have running against her, Scott Colombe, is someone who Democrats think can really galvanize black voters in this race. And I think if you had talked to someone close to Trump, you know, six months ago and asked whether he would be in Mississippi, a state that he won by 23 points in 2024, a week ahead of the election, trying to boost turnout, kind of look at you with a funny expression. But nonetheless, he is here tonight. Now, Democrats say and they have some calculus here that if Cologne can boost turnout massively among black voters and win a quarter of white voters, then he will be successful.

8:48Now, that is a tall order, even in a state like Mississippi. Yet the resources and the people that are coming here to Mississippi, including Donald Trump, who's just being introduced right now, I think it's you in the sense that both parties really think that this state is very much now in the conversation. All right, Kevin, thank you very much. And to the president on that stage in Mississippi, everyone's here with me. Van Jones, a stage where, you know, he feels welcome and a state that has been trending the wrong direction. Mr. Colom has gotten a lot of vibe recently. But something just stood out to me from what Kevin Liptock said.

9:26Going through the state, a lot of people were not aware that there was an election. They were vaguely aware. Vaguely aware. Okay. That's not, that doesn't sound like turnout to me. That's not good. That doesn't seem like you've got the machine revved up and it makes sense. It's because why in the world would you be worried about Mississippi when you're losing every place else? But the fact that Republicans are actually spending money in Mississippi to not lose a Senate seat, the fact that Donald Trump is in Mississippi, that gives you a sense of how big this blue wave may be. We'll see if the polls are off.

9:56But you don't spend money in Mississippi five, six, seven, eight days out from an election unless you're terrified. Bill, how do you see it? I mean, obviously, there's one thing to go there. It's a safe place for Trump. but it's another when you're actually spending a whole lot of money because maybe it's not so safe. Yeah. Winning Michigan or a pickup opportunity, it doesn't matter if you lose Mississippi. I'd also say in midterm elections and off-year elections, things are different, right? A couple years ago, the Republican Mississippi governor was reelected by just 3%, right? Doug Jones won in Alabama in the 2018 cycle, a Democrat.

10:30So it can happen. It can happen. I'd rather be safe than sorry. Again, pick up opportunities that matter. If you lose somewhere, you should win. I mean, look, it is in no way a good thing if you're following the money that Republicans are spending in Mississippi right now. It's not a sign of strength. It's a sign of weakness. By the way, spending that isn't going that well because people are only vaguely aware of their election. I mean, that's clearly the quote of the night. That's where reporters on the ground can make a big difference because, no, that speaks to a lack of enthusiasm, a lack of awareness.

11:02And even next door, I mean, Doug Jones running for governor in Alabama and putting up a strong fight against Tommy Tuberville. The point is, Democrats are actually playing offense, and they're doing it with candidates who are helping them expand the map in places they haven't won in a long time. That is actually a sign of what's happening in this election right now. Now, what about the timing, though? You heard Wes Moore, governor of Maryland, Democratic governor of Maryland. He said the Democrats waited too long to spend money in some of these states. Some of the states he was mentioning was South Carolina, Florida, just that they waited too long to put the money in and that now you're not going to get much bang for your buck.

11:38Yeah, I think that's a misread here. I mean, this is that time of year where Democrats over inflate their own popularity. Always when they get within the 5, 10 meter, you know, 10 yard mark going in for the touchdown. That's usually when Democrats blow it because they get too overconfident because it's clear that Donald Trump is unpopular. But in a place like Mississippi and in Texas and in Florida, Democrats are also really unpopular. And what you've got, especially among independents, is people who like none of the above. And yet they don't like Donald Trump. Do they even know who the Democratic candidate is?

12:06I think that's the challenge. But squaring the circle around corruption, I think, is the opening for whoever's running against a Republican. Donald Trump is getting rich and you're getting screwed. If they can put that message forward and land it on the Republican candidates, especially incumbents, that's where there's a lot of room to grow. The corruption. Yeah, I think the corruption message is resonating and is a way to tie everything together. One of the things, I think Wes Moore is correct that it would be better to go earlier with the money, but we didn't have the money. One of the things we haven't talked about is the fact that in spite of having a massive anti-Trump sentiment in the country, Democratic Party donors were sitting on their wallets until maybe four weeks ago.

12:43Why? Concerned about the DSA candidates in the post-October 7th environment. Some Jewish donors concerned about the anti-Zionism in this party. And so some of these things that we talk about only from a candidate point of view actually affected the donors. Democrats were outraged by Republicans massively until very recently because of the fear that there's too much extremism in our own party. Now, people are getting over that. You're now seeing people opening up their wallets again. But we didn't have the money to give a month ago. So then on the corruption point, OK, Trump, Obama goes, he's campaigning this weekend and he talks about it and actually talks.

13:18He had a lot of things to say about corruption. He and John Ossoff, but John Ossoff's been doing it for quite a while. So he's talking about Trump's White House renovations, okay? And he says this. Oh, I love it. What's up with the gold?

13:35I mean, he's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a cheesecake factory. It's just gold everywhere.

13:50He is clearly not focused on lowering prices for you. Oh, I love it. I love it. I mean, that line left a mark. Also, I want to give a shout out to Bill Clinton's comparison of the Rose Garden to Liberace's bathroom. Yes. I mean, I wonder if they had a conversation. No, I think they're just both riffing. But that's sort of the point that sticks. It is the corruption intersecting with the costs. And that's the key closing argument. And that's where people are pissed off, not just looking at a cabinet full of, you know, billionaires, but looking at the fact that Donald Trump is fundamentally distracted.

14:25Yes. And not actually helping folks or saying affordability is real. And Bill, Trump's response, okay, he said today, I don't have a camera, but here's what he said, it's not about money, it's about seeing. Guys like Obama don't see it. You don't see dirt. He doesn't see filth. He doesn't see broken ornaments on a building. For you to say it's a cheesecake factory, that just shows why you were a lousy president back then. I have a different view than the president on this. I mean, I love any time liberal elites look down on middle class America, right? Deplorables with Clinton, clinging to your guns and religion.

14:58For a lot of Americans, like Cheesecake Factory is not tacky or low class. It's actually a nice night out. You wonder why Trump has made gains with middle class Americans. It's comments like that. Well, hold on a second. First of all, he's losing all those gains because he's also up there saying that I don't care about your gas prices and we're making a fortune while you're suffering. And also, I love Cheesecake Factory. I love Waffle House. I love Cheesecake Factory, too. But Cheesecake Factory is garty. It is garty, and everybody knows that. And so I think the reason that it sticks is because it shows that Obama does have a feel for everyday people.

15:29I think right-wingers want to pretend like, oh, this is a proof of elitism. It's proof that Donald Trump is just tacky as hell, and everybody knows it. And it's all too expensive for most people. And I think that's what they're really feeling. And here's the question for Democrats. It's not whether they spent money early enough, but where's that guy been? I mean, if they're pulling people off the bench, I would have pulled Barack Obama off the bench months ago. because he's the most gifted communicator of our lifetime, right? And if it's a one-on-one between Barack Obama and Donald Trump, Barack Obama's going to win every time.

15:52He's more captivating, he's funnier, and he's more popular. So do you know who Trump brought in today to go to the Cheesecake Factory? I don't think it's the sort of person you're talking about, Bill. Scott Besson. It's a billionaire named Scott Besson who may not frequent the Cheesecake Factory. I don't know. Perhaps he does. But he went today, and he said he went today. I always had the French dip cheeseburger. I eat a great meal, always have a great meal, and I would tell the Martha's Vineyard set to give it a try. Lean in. Okay, is that going to apply? Is that going to apply Scott Besson talking to the Martha's Vineyard crowd?

16:29Bill's loving the theater, but that's for an audience of one. Exactly right. I mean, Scott Besson is the worst messenger for that particular message you could possibly make. But this is where we get distracted by, you know, stuff that doesn't really matter. What's pissing people off is the intersection of corruption and costs. And a president who says that affordability is now a hoax, who says that he doesn't give a damn about this stuff. Now, Democrats have their own baggage, but the key number to keep in mind is 22 percent approval rating from Donald Trump among independents. That gives you a sense of the gravity of what's going on.

17:04Bill, what's going on with Trump? OK, that's an existential question. But he goes on a stage this weekend and he says about gas prices, but I said, I don't give a damn. I'm going to say it. We're making a freaking fortune. Our country's getting stronger and those pump prices are going to come. I don't give a damn. Does anyone, I mean, obviously that's not in the prompter. I mean, nobody would say that's a good idea. Go tell people you don't give a damn. And we're making a freaking fortune, not America. What's going on, Bill? I could tell you things that you don't care about, like waiving of the Jones Act or reducing some of the regulations that allow cheaper diesel and importing foreign diesel.

17:44Two things. One, it hasn't worked. Prices are not lower. And two, most Americans don't think Republicans care enough about these things. Data shows that Americans care about affordability and the economy. Americans think that Republicans care about Iran and immigration. But how does he go out, Bill, and say, I said I don't give a damn when people are going to pay a little higher for gas? Because he doesn't. He really doesn't give a damn. I mean, I think he said that out front. I mean, he said, I don't care and nothing can stop me. And that's the challenge for the Democrats is can they actually challenge him?

18:14Can they actually stop him? I think the bigger issue here is that they don't want people who fake like they're going to Cheese Factory. Mike Lawler was out there pretending to work at McDonald's. They want people who understand that they can't afford McDonald's. That's the issue right now. And all the politicians feel fake and out of touch. That's why there's kind of an eat the rich mentality that's focused on the corruption that started in Hungary, might hit Israel this week and is coming to the U.S., I think, in the next week especially. Paul, one thing I think is very interesting, though, in all seriousness, this is a collapse of incredible political talent.

18:45Donald Trump used to scare the crap out of Democrats because he had that feel for the working class. He was somehow able to really be their tribune. It is a long way from that guy to this guy saying we're making a freaking fortune and we don't give a damn about price. This is a complete face plant, a total collapse of a rare political talent. and this party's going to pay for it. I think he's become extremely undisciplined and it's this spray and pray kind of strategy where he's throwing everything and he's neglecting to realize that Iran sits over all of it and the country knows that he started the war in Iran.

19:17He's continuing the war in Iran. That's eroded his base. MAGA is very frustrated that he went against his no forever war promise and it's killing him with independence because people know that if you stop the Iran war, gas prices go down. So there's one guy who can impact gas prices and it's the president with his war in Iran. Yeah, I just want to make one other point for why Democrats are doing well right now. It's not just the implosion of Donald Trump into sort of self-obsession and self-parody. It's that they're putting forward candidates who have brought a lot of populist energy to common sense center-left policies, right?

19:47You look at Rob Sand in Iowa. You look at what Tallarico's done benefiting from the nomination of Paxton. You look at the Kansas, Hamilton in Kansas, who was the pastor of the largest church in the state. These are candidates that Democrats haven't traditionally put forward. They don't resemble anything like the DSA who do nothing to help you gain a majority, but they're expanding the map because they're a different kind of candidate and they're winning over the center. And that's the power in this. That's what's driving the momentum in this election. They're better, but the question is, is they good enough to overcome the unpopularity of their own Democratic brand?

20:16Especially among independent. That's the question. Go back to the point you were making about the money coming in late. Yeah, yeah. But the smart ones are running against their, like saying, they're running against both parties. Running against everything. All right. Thank you all very much. And next, the vice president is in Kansas tonight, which is sort of the same thing as Mississippi and, you know, where they're putting the time, a sign of just how concerned Republicans are about losing a Senate race in Kansas, it would be for the first time in 90 years. Harry Anton's at the magic wall. He'll tell us something we don't know.

20:43And Trump is sending poll watchers to every state. Massive surge from past years. Why? And Trump promised a boom, but some Nevada workers say they're getting a bust. Why? Why things better go better, but we go backwards. Everything is worth.

21:29later, his body was found in a pond nearby. Lil Jon has a memoir that just came out called I Only Shout So You Can Hear Me. It takes time to heal, and I kept myself busy that I didn't let myself mourn. I needed to laugh again. I needed to be silly and interact with people and feel other people's energy and make people happy too. We have to share so other people can see that they can get through it too. Talking grief, building community. That's what the podcast is all about. This is all there is. Listen and follow wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Dr. Sanjay Gupta, host of the Chasing Life podcast.

22:11You may have noticed gambling doesn't require a casino anymore. You can just open up your phone. It's designed to keep us coming back or maybe never even leaving in the first place. We're going to talk to Dr. Timothy Fong, co-director of UCLA's gambling studies program, you're going to learn what your brain is really chasing when you place a bet, and also importantly, how to keep the game from playing you. Gambling addiction, gambling disorder is the hidden addiction. You can't smell it, you can't taste it, you can't see it, you can't have a urine drug test. Who are we talking about here, Professor?

22:43Who's the most likely demographic to be affected by this? Literally any single human on earth. Listen to Chasing Life, streaming now, wherever you get your podcasts.

22:58And welcome back to a special edition of Outfront Countdown to the Election. Vice President J.D. Vance rallying support for struggling Republican Senator Roger Marshall. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator in 94 years. But now America's top election forecasters are projecting the race as a toss up. We have a free and open debate. the American people will realize that all the Democrats are selling is a fat load of bulls**t. The truth, ladies and gentlemen, is that America is being built back better than ever before. And I'm at the magic wall with Harry Enten, the breaking news out of Kansas.

23:36So Harry. Well, that's some language. Out front to tell us some more things we don't know. Okay. So Trump won Kansas by what? 16 points. Yeah. That was in 2024. Correct. And Kansas has not had a Democratic senator in 90. It has not elected one since 1932. OK. OK. So if the Democrats flip Kansas and overcome those two things, is that a game over scenario broadly? Yeah. I mean, look, let's just take a look at where we are right now, you know, in terms of the Senate races and sort of where we see things are at this point. Look, Democrats have 47 seats that are either leaning or likely to be their way at the end of this election cycle.

24:11Republicans at 46. Look at what is in yellow in your toss up on there. It is Kansas. Kansas, a state that hasn't gone Democratic in the United States Senate race since 1932. Now, you mentioned it, Aaron. What does a Dem Senate win in Kansas mean? Well, it probably does mean it's game over for the Republicans and game on for the Democrats. Take a look here. A Dem win in Kansas gives Democrats a 90 percent chance, roughly therein about, chance of winning the United States Senate. Why is that? Because if you put Kansas in blue, look at this. What do Democrats need to do in order to get that 51 seats to a majority?

24:45Well, they can win in Maine, which, of course, Kamala Harris won. Win in Michigan, that Barack Obama won. And, excuse me, and Joe Biden won. Win in Ohio, which Sherrod Brown, of course, won during the first Trump midterm back in 2018. And what does that do? That gets you to Democrats, 51 seats and a majority. That's why Kansas is so important. You don't even need Texas in that scenario. You don't even need Texas. That would get you to 52. All right. So Republicans say now you and I were just talking about this in the commercial break. When you look at where J.D. Vance is tonight. Yeah. You look at where Donald Trump is tonight.

25:16The actions speak louder than the words. OK, they so they can say they don't. The polls are bunk, but they're putting their time in deep red states. What should be deep red states. However, Republicans will say the polls are undercounting Republicans. They've done that in the past. They've been wrong. So if that's the case, OK, can you game it out? Yeah. If, in fact, the polls do underestimate Republicans, well, you know, we can turn we can turn Texas back red. How about Kansas red? How about we make Ohio red? These are, of course, all states that Donald Trump won back in 2024. How about Maine, where the polls have underestimated Susan Collins back in the past, especially the case in 2020?

25:54Or how about Michigan? Right. And let's say Abdul El-Sayed loses to Mike Rogers. Look, there is definitely a pathway for Republicans to win. if, in fact, we see the polling errors that we have seen in presidential years, that would, in fact, give Republicans a clear pathway to a majority. Right. And then you might have it then again. Alaska, where they've already filed that preemptive lawsuit, would not be relevant. Right. It wouldn't even matter. But, you know, if you give them those states that Donald Trump won, that gets them, they could easily get the 53 seats. OK. All right. So tell me something.

26:20I don't know. All this talk about undercounting the Republicans. Did it happen in the 2022 majority? OK. This is, I think, the key nugget here, Erin. And this is the key nugget here. And that is, do the polls necessarily underestimate Republicans? Well, take a look here. I went back and looked at the last midterm election, right? That was back in 2022. If you look at the close races, who was underestimated? Aaron, I'll tell you something you don't know. And that is the Democrats were, in fact, underestimated if you look at the final polling average in 100 percent of the races. So, in fact, it was Democrats during the last midterm in the Trump era.

26:57Democrats were the ones who were underestimated. So instead of looking like a map like this, you may look at a map like this with Democrats at 54. Which is really incredible when you say because polls change constantly, right? So people could be remembering polls from August or whatever it might have been ahead of the midterms you're talking about. Let's look at this week. If we look at this week right now, Democrats, to me, the polling average, put them in a position to get a majority. We'll see if those polls are right or if they're biased. They may be in bias and Democrats may, in fact, be undercounted.

27:22All right. That is something that we don't know. That's something you don't know. Thank you very much, Harry Enten. And next, a top Republican backing Democrat, James Tallarico, warning the Republican Ken Paxton would, quote unquote, embarrass Texas. A fellow Republican who's also bailing on Paxton is out front tonight. And we're live in Minnesota where controversial influencer Hassan Piker is about to take the stage. Is he about to dominate all the headlines just days before the election?

28:04Welcome back to a special edition of Outfront. Countdown to election night. The breaking news, another Texas Republican breaking with his party in the state's all-important U.S. Senate race. Now, Texas already seeing nearly four and a half million early votes cast since voting began there a week ago. Four and a half million. Thomas Phillips, the former Republican chief justice of the Texas Supreme Court, endorsing the Democratic Senate candidate, James Tallarico. You heard me right, the Republican. Now, Phillips explained why he can't support Republican Ken Paxson. He said, quote, in part, Paxson's longstanding reputation will embarrass Texas in ways our state simply cannot afford.

28:40Even the most fervent Republican would do well this year to remember President John Kennedy's warning that sometimes party loyalty demands too much. Out front now, two Republicans who have not shied away from speaking out against their party and putting country over party as they seem more important in this moment than loyalty. Dade Phelan, Texas State Representative and former Texas House Speaker. And also with me, former Kansas Governor Bill Graves. Representative Phelan, I just want to start with you, if I may here, because we hear this from Texas, you know, judges, Supreme Court Justice. How widespread is that sentiment among Texas Republicans?

29:19It's something we didn't hear. Let's just frame it this way. In 2018, when several statewides barely won by less than three points, no one was talking about not voting for Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz is a fierce campaigner, debater, fundraisers across campaigns across the state. No one was talking about not voting for Ted Cruz. The fact that you're hearing very prominent Republicans, lifelong Republicans coming out, not just saying they're skipping the race or they have hesitations about voting for game facts and they're actually endorsing and voting for the Democrat is pretty telling. And I think that's why the polls are where they are.

30:02You can say the polls are wrong and it's fake polls and they're undercounting Republicans, which I don't think they undercount Republicans in midterms. I think in midterms, the polls are more accurate than presidential years. And so, yes, I think that people are splitting their tickets this cycle more than ever. And we're kind of seeing that in the turnout at the polls right now. So I'm not surprised that some of these more prominent Republicans, lifelong Republicans, are turning their back at some of these high ticket Republicans. So, you know, Governor Graves, it's obviously you hear what Representative Phelan is saying about Texas, but it's happening in South Carolina.

30:45The Democratic Senate candidate there, Annie Andrews, just got endorsed by the former South Carolina Republican Governor David Beasley, who put out a video talking about Andrews alongside a former Democratic governor of the state, Jim Hodges. Here they are. We may have served as your governor from different political parties, but we agree South Carolina deserves better than more of the same political fighting. And so they're endorsing the Democrat. I mean, Governor, you were one of the first Republicans to do this, this cycle, to break ranks and come out when it was a very lonely thing to do. You endorse the Democrat.

31:22What do you think is driving Republicans from very different states? Right here, we're now talking about Kansas, Texas, South Carolina, Republicans endorsing Democrats in these elections. Yeah, and I should mention Mark Roscoe, formerly of the Bush administration, who's endorsed in Montana. I mean, there are a number beyond that. First of all, I want to say, Aaron, I served with David Beasley, so I know him well. He is a stand-up guy, very conservative. And this came as even a surprise to me, but I'm very proud of David for doing it. And I think he feels like Gabe and I feel. The Republican Party, we're still Republicans, and we want our party to be vibrant and strong.

32:10But this isn't the party that we know. And we're left with very few options. You either set it out or you figure out a different strategy to engage. And in this case, the only other partner to dance with happens to be a Democratic candidate. And in my case, a very, very fine one. Adam Hamilton is makes no bones about the fact that he runs right in the middle of the road, which is where Kansans are. And I think he's the kind of guy that that can possibly make a difference in Washington. I mean, some of these candidates that you're talking about are people who have focused on pragmatism. When you're talking about people like Annie Andrews or James Tallarico, at least in terms of political message, we've heard from them.

32:55And, Dave, I know you've worked with Mr. Tallarico, obviously, in the Texas House. The Justice Department said today that it's sending 1 ,000 election monitors to every state, which is 150 percent increase from the 2022 election. Right. So two and a half times. It comes amid the situation in the Alaska Senate race where Trump's already directed the DOJ to file a lawsuit to block the certification of the election if the Republican loses. Because they're both named Dan Sullivan, even though it's clearly labeled incumbent and all the reasons that Lisa Murkowski said that this didn't add up on the ballot.

33:29But here's what Attorney General Todd Blanche told my colleague Dana Bash this weekend. We are not doing anything improper. We're not doing anything we're not allowed to do. And we have to let the process play out. But I do think it's important for the American people to understand that we are not, President Trump is not trying to take over a state election in any way, shape or form. Representative Phelan, what do you make of Blanche's explanation? You know, a thousand election monitors across the U.S. is really not that many people. That's instead of Texas, that was sand on the beach. We've got thousands and thousands and thousands of polling locations.

34:11I don't know what the purpose of this is. I don't know what one person standing in the room watching people vote will do or not do. I don't know what message they're trying to send here. but we have counties where there's hundreds of polling locations in the state of Texas. So 1 ,000 across the state of Texas, I really don't know what the purpose of it is. So you think even though it's a two-and-a-half times increase, you're saying it's still not enough to make a difference, so what are they really trying to do? Yes, you would need hundreds of thousands of, and maybe I'm wrong with Governor, you tell me, but you would need hundreds and hundreds of thousands of poll watchers if you're trying to make an impact because there are so many locations just in the state of Texas alone that I don't know what the purpose of this initiative is.

35:01Governor, you've certified elections. What do you read into this? Well, I mean, obviously, I do have a concern about it in those locations where these individuals show up, it causing some, let's call it discomfort amongst well-established election officials that have been doing this for years, volunteers, paid workers that have been doing this for years. But I have to tell you, Aaron, I look at it maybe a little differently in that I have so much confidence in the people running our elections. I actually like the fact that I think all these people are going to show up and there's not going to be anything for them to find.

35:44I mean, the political parties have been able to send poll watchers to every polling place forever, and they normally do. So this is just another layer that will make it that much more difficult for this president to argue that there was some sort of irregularity in this election. All right. Well, I appreciate both of you and thank you so much, as always, for being with me. And we have some breaking news out of Minnesota right now. Hassan Piker, the streamer who said America deserved 9-11, is about to take the stage live with Congresswoman Ilhan Omar. Even his mainstream Democrats are trying to distance themselves from him.

36:20We're live on the ground. And a voter who welcomed Trump to his restaurant tonight is wondering how long he can keep it open. Some of these elements of the big, beautiful bill were supposed to make things better. Did they make things better? I don't see things getting better.

37:00And welcome back to a special edition of Outfront Countdown to the Election. We have breaking news out of Minnesota. A difficult night for Democrats just eight days before the crucial midterm elections. Right now, Hassan Piker, a lightning rod in the Democratic Party, appearing alongside Congresswoman Ilhan Omar at an event in Minneapolis. Piker, a controversial streamer who has three million followers on Twitch, became notorious for comments like America, quote, deserve 9-11 and, quote, I would vote Hamas over Israel. But he's saying tonight that he's just a regular guy. We're just normal Americans trying to go about our day to day and trying to organize against the Trump administration in the same way that, you know, white people are doing in general.

37:46Doni O'Sullivan is out front now and Doni Hassan Piker's recording a live podcast. We saw a clip from it, but it's going on now with Ilhan Omar as election forecasters are moving more and more races to the left. But Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report says the only Senate race moving in the Republicans' direction is in Minnesota. Now, a lot of Democrats don't want Piker and Omar flooding the news cycle this close to the election. So what are they trying to accomplish tonight? What's the purpose of this? Hey, Erin. Yeah, Hassan Piker about to take the stage here in about the next 10 or 15 minutes with Congresswoman Ilyan Omar.

38:27Yeah, many Minnesota Democrats here are not very happy that this event is taking place. We heard from the chair of the Minnesota Democratic Party that this was not a sanctioned event. They were critical of Piker and his previous controversial comments. And we also heard from Senator Amy Klobuchar, who is running for governor here, distancing herself from Piker as well. The reason why this event is going ahead and why Ilhan Omar is taking part, according to a statement, her campaign release to local media here, was that Piker is extremely popular with young people. He has, as you mentioned, 3 million followers on the streaming platform Twitch, and he always draws a big crowd of young people.

39:14So it is that challenge, I think, for Democrats of trying to balance, trying to reach young voters, but also dealing with a controversial figure like Piker. Yeah, who, of course, has caused all sorts of issues for Abdul El-Sayed in the neck-and-neck Senate race in Michigan. I mean, Piker and Congressman Omar were talking backstage before the event. The Michigan Senate nominee, Abdul El-Sayed, has, as I said, taken a lot of heat for his association with Hassan Piker. So here's what Omar says about that. When you were out there with Abdul in Michigan, there were so many of them that were just outraged that you would be campaigning with him.

39:59Now, Doni, you know, recently when I was talking to Abdul El-Sayed and I asked him about Piker, he replied, quote, I'm tired of talking about a streamer in California. Well, obviously, they're not tired of talking about him. How does Piker feel? And what do you think he might say tonight, given that he's now someone that many Democrats are running away from? Yeah, and this was actually something we asked Piker earlier on in the summer when the primaries were taking place and when he was campaigning with Democratic primary candidates like Abdul El-Sayed. I asked him if these candidates might distance themselves from him in the general election campaign.

40:42He was doubtful that that would happen. He said that would be a mistake if it happened. Obviously, we've seen that happening in Michigan. But I think tonight's event is just a reminder just how crucial a role people like Piker are going to play in the primaries that begin right after the midterms and how much of a headache it will be for many in the Democratic Party. All right, Doni, thank you very much at that event tonight. And next, a warning for Republicans from a battleground. We're going to take you to Nevada in this special edition of Outfront Countdown to Election Night.

41:27Welcome back to a special edition of Outfront Countdown to Election Night. The breaking news, we've got new early voting numbers in from the state of Nevada. Democrats continue to maintain a five-point edge over Republicans there, and Kyung La is out front.

41:44It wasn't supposed to be like this. Why? Why things start to go better? We go backwards. Everything is worse. Javier Barajas was promised the cost of running his Las Vegas restaurant would get better. With economic proposals that President Donald Trump first unveiled in a 2024 campaign stop at Barajas' restaurant to help working families in Nevada. We've come here today to talk about the biggest promise I think that the restaurant workers have had in a long time, and that's no tax on tips. Service workers make up nearly a quarter of the state's workforce, twice as large as the country's average.

42:24He's the right person to help most businesses to do better and better. It's been two years since Trump made those promises, and they've become policy. But the people who come through this restaurant and other places in Nevada say it doesn't really matter because of affordability. It used to be$16 two months ago. It used to be between$39 and$44. Wow. Now it's almost$75. Maybe because the diesel is too expensive. Because diesel is too expensive. Trucks have to bring the produce in. Iran war, it went up more. We hope every day that the war ends. Hopefully that the prices... Gracias. In 2024, the swing state swung to Republicans.

43:17With the midterm election in the final stretch, the Trump policies aimed at keeping voters in their column are falling short. Some of these elements of the big, beautiful bill were supposed to make things better. Did they make things better? I don't see things getting better. That's when I start thinking, oh my God, what about my employees, you know? How they living, how they pay the rent. I've been doing this for over 20 years, and I never feel like this before. I work full-time. Chef Fernando Perez makes nearly double the minimum wage in Nevada. Under Trump's policy changes, he should be making more because his overtime is tax deductible.

43:57I would say I'm making enough money, but I still can't make it. Every single one of us, we feel it one way or another. We feel the pain. So more than one employee is taking a scooter to work? They're taking a scooter, yeah. Because the gas price is really high. The scooters back there, like a little parking. My scooter.

44:20How far do you ride your scooter?

44:30Among the policies that impacted Nevada workers was no tax on tips. How much are you working per week? Over 100 hours. A week? Yes. I know. I have to get a second job just to like be caught up with payments and stuff like that. Did any of the policy changes that the president made impact your life? Well, not really. If things keep going like this, I'm either going to sell the restaurant or close it. If you could go back to two years ago when you were talking to President Trump, what would you encourage him? Don't get into wars. I want the powerful men to be more human, you know, to be more, to have more heart, you know.

45:28On Nationwide, the Treasury Department says this year more than 53 million filers claimed at least one of the new tax cuts. The White House has promoted its signature achievement in political ads, saying working families have benefited in Trump's second term. Erin? All right, Kyung, thank you very much. And thanks so much to all of you for being with us. AC360 starts now. I'm Adi Cornish. I'm Ari Shapiro, and it's Engagement Party. It is Engagement Party. And we get to talk about what we're obsessed with, what we're engaged with, what we need to process with a friend. Her name is Amy O'Dell. She is a fashion writer, blogger.

46:02But the thing is, she's a journalist who's written about the sacred cows of fashion. And yes, I mean, Gwyneth Paltrow and Anna Wintour. She has done biographies of both. And she is also the sort of rare fashion writer who, at this point, kind of outside the system. And so the question that we're going to try to tackle is... Is fashion terrible now? Well, no, I mean, I would phrase it as how do you develop a personal style in the age of AI slop? You know, on social media, like creators have to try a whole bunch of different things and see what catches and then they make it over and over and over again.

46:35The same thing happens with clothing. So they're sort of seeding the market, seeding the internet with all of these different ideas. And then they can see what sells and then they can just make them really fast. Follow Engagement Party. Wherever you get your podcasts.

From the publisher

Trump campaigns in Mississippi eight days before the election and he is trying a new tactic of offering cash to anyone who finds voter fraud. Plus, a top Texas Republican endorses Democrat James Talarico. 
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