#183 Andreas Schwarzenbrunner, Speedinvest

13 Jun 2023 · 45 min

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In short

EUVC Podcast Episode Summary

Podcast Details

  • Title: EUVC
  • Description: Your go-to podcast for everything European VC, co-hosted by Andreas Munk Holm and David Cruz e Silva. Features prominent figures from the European VC industry, providing fresh perspectives.

Episode Information

  • Episode Title: #183 Andreas Schwarzenbrunner, Speedinvest
  • Description: Featuring Andreas Schwarzenbrunner, Partner at Speedinvest, discussing the European VC landscape, his transition from politics to venture capital, and insights from a recent survey on decision-making in VC.

Key Themes and Discussions

  1. Andreas Schwarzenbrunner's Journey
  2. Transition from politics to venture capital.
  3. Initial roles included economic policy advisor and district council in Vienna.
  4. Shifted to VC upon realizing politics was bureaucratic and slow-moving compared to the fast-paced tech world.
  1. Speedinvest Overview
  2. Speedinvest is one of Europe’s most active early-stage investors with over €1 billion AuM.
  3. Growth from a small fund to a significant player in major cities: Berlin, London, Munich, Paris, and Vienna.
  1. Insights from the VC Industry
  2. Decision Making: Discussion on a report reviewing insights from 6,500+ VCs on how they make investment decisions and the differences between the European and US markets.
  3. Fragmentation in Europe:
  4. 90% of EU VCs believe Europe is fragmented due to cultural differences, regulatory environments, and varying maturity levels of ecosystems.
  5. Regulatory Framework:
  6. Importance of regulations in sectors like fintech, health, and climate tech.
  7. The need for a more unified approach to policy in Europe to support innovation.
  1. European vs. US VC Landscape
  2. Comparison of performance metrics like IRR and MOIC between US and European VCs:
  3. Similar IRR expectations, around 30-34% in Europe.
  4. Differences in focus on exit markets and capital market expertise.
  5. Discussion on the lack of exit opportunities in Europe compared to the US.
  1. Investment Trends and Syndication
  2. Syndication Patterns:
  3. 80% of rounds in Europe are syndicated, often for reasons of complementary expertise rather than just capital needs.
  4. US VCs tend to seek higher ownership percentages in investments.
  5. Discussion on the evolving mindset of European VCs towards upside maximization rather than just downside minimization.
  1. Research Findings on the European VC Ecosystem
  2. A comprehensive study conducted by Speedinvest aimed to gather detailed data on European VC operations.
  3. Focus on the maturity of funds, showing a significant gap in experience compared to US counterparts.
  1. Future of European Venture Capital
  2. Emphasis on the need for better collaboration and alignment within the European VC ecosystem.
  3. Potential for growth if the industry can unify its approach to regulatory challenges and market conditions.

Conclusion

  • The episode provides a deep dive into the transition from politics to VC, the dynamics of the European VC landscape, and key findings from a significant survey on VC decision-making. It emphasizes the challenges and opportunities present within the fragmented European ecosystem while drawing comparisons to the more mature US market.

Call to Action

  • Listeners are encouraged to explore the detailed findings of the survey to gain insights into the state of European VC.

For more information and updates follow EUVC at [eu.vc](http://eu.vc).

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Transcript

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0:04Hi, and welcome back to the European VC, the go to podcast for everything European VC. If you love the show, share it with your friends and join our newsletter at eu.vc. Today, we're happy to welcome Andreas, partner at Speedinvest, one of Europe's most active early stage investors with more than€1 billion AUM and 40 plus investors based in Berlin, London, Munich, Paris and Vienna. Andy found his way into venture via politics and is always up for a debate. This gave him an exceptionally good eye for promising ideas and trends. If you enjoy our content, do support us by hitting the follow button, giving us a review and following the European VC on LinkedIn.

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2:21Andy, welcome to the European VC Podcast. It's super nice to have you here with us today. I think I want to start with the basics. I love starting like this. Andy, give us a quick rundown of who the hell is Andy and how did you end up in this wonderful world of venture? And, you know, you have this funny story from politics into venture. So help us understand that. Yeah. Hey, David. Hey, Andreas. Thanks for having me on the podcast. Happened a bit by accident. I can give you the full story. I was always very interested in history and politics and actually got engaged in the politics very early on.

2:51And my plan was always first to either become president of the European Commission and then later on the European Central Bank. So I studied economics. I always wanted to work in politics. And I also did that for roughly two years as an economic policy advisor. I was also a district council in Vienna. And there are a few things I was engaged in in politics. I always liked it and I still very much love politics and I follow it closely. But then I realized when working in that ecosystem that it's probably not the right fit for me. It was very slow moving. It was very hierarchical. It was very bureaucratic.

3:29I mean, nothing that I think very surprising for everyone out there and the listeners. And then I saw all my friends who actually did different things. It was the first big wave of also startups in Berlin, 2011, 2012. and I heard so many stories about people having funny office parties. It was a very young crowd and they were move fast and break things, all those things that did not exist in my world. So politics and especially what I did was very different. And if you are an advisor like I was, you're never calling the shots. You're never making decisions. In the end, it's always elected officials who are taking decisions, even if they have no clue about a topic, right?

4:08I mean, you have to be, that's the reality. and that was always a bit frustrating because you in the end of the day you were sitting there and you realized what are you actually doing here? What are you really driving forward? And then I saw this other world, this tech world, which was so different. And then it was a friend of mine who made me aware of Speedinvest and he's actually now at Speedinvest, which is really funny. So he later on joined Speedinvest and he made me aware of Speedinvest. We had a lunch. I can really remember it. He told me about Speedinvest. He said, there's this small Austrian fund and you want to start a second fund.

4:38They want to increase the team. So Speedinvest back then was a 10 million, like more or less, we see Super Angel Fund. You all know the story probably. And he made me aware of it. And then I applied and they hired me as the first analyst. So I was the first analyst at Speedinvest. I also had no competition, to be honest. So my background was a very different one. So it was as politics, right? I was very lucky because nobody back then knew Speedinvest. So nobody really applied. right people weren't queuing up to join a 10 million euro fund with four partners at the time i believe it was uh yeah it was was already more than that so basically only partners and also most people back then were also not 100 aware of what venture is right so vc was not as cool as it is now and as it is now so i applied i got the job i had a very funny interview with olivert and he always later on said that the main reason he hired me was because he just had a lot of fun and then I joined as the first analyst, really not really having a lot of idea about venture.

5:41And I had to Google due diligence my first week at Spinvest. But then you realized that that's what you did before you could even make a coffee in politics. Yeah, yeah. And then it was a very interesting journey. So I was doing a lot of fintech in the beginning. Then SaaS Enterprise Software helped to build our industrial team. I was leading our climate investments, which I mostly do now. I was helping to build up our different offices back then. We only had Vienna. Now we have Vienna, Munich, Berlin, London, Paris. I was in San Francisco for a while. I worked for a portfolio company in London for a while.

6:13I did all different kinds of things. And I would say I did my whole startup journey and also within Speedinvest. And I really loved the ecosystem. Maybe it's worth saying to our listeners, if you haven't listened to our episode with all over Hollywood. We talk about the story of Speedinvest. I think it's a great story. It connects to many things that Andy just said. We're not going to repeat it, right? We don't want to bore anyone, but just an invitation to any listener out there interested. Super cool episode. I really recommend it. We've got one, which is, I guess, about eight months old or so.

6:41And then we've got one that's only three months or so that we did together with the announcement of your 500 million euro fund, which I think, you know, if you put those two together, then you've definitely got a good understanding of what Speedinvest is and what Speedinvest is going to be as well. So definitely go on and listen to that. Andy, I would love to ask you the question. You're coming from politics. Now we got the journey. But what did you bring with you that you think has allowed you to be a different VC than your peers? The politics part comes in one hand in a lot of different sectors.

7:13If you look at fintech, if you look at health, if you look at climate tech, I think people underestimate how much of those industries are driven by regulation and are driven by government intervention in the form of subsidies or whatever kind of form. I think we've all seen it during COVID. We have seen it with the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S., right? So there are a lot of things in a lot of sectors that are driven by policies and politics. And this is, I think, one perspective that I can bring to the table. That's also why I love to work with a lot of climate tech companies because there this perspective is, I think, very valuable.

7:47I think that's one difference. I don't see government and politics per se as the evil, as a lot of my peers in VC do. That's a different perspective. And the second is, I think, due to the fact that I had no background in, let's say, startup or tech, always had to be, so to say, and try to be humble in learning that, learning from founders, learning about technology, learning about different business models, and try to be as curious as possible. because I really had to dig my way into that ecosystem and that still sticks with me today. So I know that I have no clue about a lot of things and I also know that I don't know how to code and a lot of things about technology that I don't understand.

8:30And I think it can also be a positive aspect because it gives you, let's say, the humbleness to say that you have not figured it out all and explain founders how hard it should work. And I think those are two aspects that are a bit different. Now you being part of a bigger firm like Speedinvest, I'd also assume that you guys have deliberately also built a partnership with more what you might call investors with different backgrounds and different perspectives. Because it's okay that you're blindsided on some points because you've then got the strength in the policy side. Am I right in saying that you're very much leveraged as the regulators guy inside Speedinvest or not as much?

9:09Probably yes. There's still a lot of people in the firm who talk about politics with me. So whenever something happens in politics, they feel the urge to talk with me about it. And probably I am, yes, still the politics. I was just about to say, Andy, that I think it makes a lot of sense because that is kind of, you know, the expertise that you want around your table and your cap table. If you're asking, as you said, an impact startup, you're going to have a lot driven by regulation. So from a Speedinvest ticket, know that you also get the regulatory side at the same time as you get the industry 4.0 team.

9:43When Speedinvest comes in as an investor, I think it's just incredibly valuable, right? Yeah, and we had one colleague, actually. He used to work in politics as well, and he was also working in the government. And we always had heated debates, but he left. He founded his own startup. So there were usually two politics guys, but now I'm the only one left. And obviously, you were the one who won the discussion in the end. He is very sharp. Can I ask an extremely off script question and Andy, feel free to ignore it and we can move on. But we saw in the last couple of weeks, you know, really interesting, let's call it phenomenon in our industry, right?

10:20And we actually did see an interesting development from this regulatory or policy standpoint where we saw the venture industry coming together and kind of really playing a role. Whether we agree or disagree is not the point. The point is that we saw it playing a role with the regulator, right? And I wonder, you know, any reflections from her side? I'm not referring specifically to the SVB UK story. That's not the point. The point is it as an example of what the industry can and should be doing or should not be doing on the regulatory side. Any reflections from her side? I think it shows that a lot of options that we have as an industry, if you work together towards the same goals.

10:56The thing in Europe is that makes it very difficult, I would say, is you have a very fragmented market. Plus, you have different stakeholders involved. So you have, on the one hand, local governments. On the other hand, you also have European-wide legislation. But I think we do too little in that sense. And I think there are a few people in the ecosystem. I don't know, Klaus Hommels from Lakeside, I think one example is like, his main task is now being a lobbyist for a venture capital, right? But I think what we have to do as an ecosystem is very well known. There are a lot of things that work in other countries.

11:28There are a lot of things that work in the US or they work in other Asian economies. is there's really a full list of policy recommendations that we could do in Europe, but we're not really strong enough as an ecosystem to basically lobby for that. Also because in the public sentiment in most European economies, startup and tech is still perceived as something irrelevant. It's a small ecosystem. There are a few dudes who are rich. Why should we do politics for them? So nobody really understands the macroeconomic implications of thriving innovation and thriving technology, I think, well enough.

12:05I mean, there are a few people who try to do this for the ecosystem. I said Klaus Hormes is one, but there's also Christian Miller in Germany, for example. He now took over in the board of the German Startup Association, and he's trying to push a lot of things. But I think one thing is that we are not aligned as an industry, and I think in a lot of cases. And the second is that most politicians and local governments do not see the real value of VC and tech. And I think the third aspect is a tiny one. It's also been our own fault because it doesn't really help as an ecosystem if a lot of VCs always say that politicians suck and government and regulation is stupid, right?

12:42It's not a good way to make friends, that's for sure. It's not a good way to push your own agenda. Yeah, we could talk for hours on that. But we've got so many initiatives from every single government set up to improve innovation and improve deep tech research and commercialization of these technologies. And in the end, it's not going to fly unless we've got VC funding. And also maybe one last thing on that. In Europe, we are really, really good at making big promises. We are usually very bad at execution. And I think what we're also very good at is to try to do a lot of things at the same time.

13:18But I think what we should do is do a few measures, but execute them very well and really double down on those things that work in Europe. It depends on specific sectors or specific regions or specific policy measures. but really work and double down on those and not try to do everything at once with a little bit of money because that is, I think, in my perspective, doomed to fail. You're absolutely right. All right. Sorry, this is why you're the center of attention inside Speed Invest for everyone to come and talk about politics because no one, you know, once you get into those discussions, it's very hard to get out of it.

13:55But let us see if we can nonetheless. Andy, you're about or at the time of publishing of this episode, you have just published your great new study, the largest that's ever been made in Europe on the state of VC and what VC really looks like and how we make decisions. So Andy, I'd love to just ask you to give us the overall take on that report. Why did you set up to do the research? How many did you interview slash survey? Then afterwards, we'll dive into the core findings from it. I think it goes very much hand in hand with what we just discussed. I think we should bring more visibility to the European ecosystem, to the European VC ecosystem, but also to the European tech ecosystem.

14:42And I think that there are a few initiatives in the past few years, like the report by Atomico and others, that already helped a lot to actually shine a bit light on the ecosystem in Europe. But I think it's still too little. And especially if you look in academic research, then most of the research about venture capital is focused on the U.S. The data is U.S.-based. The research is U.S.-based. The professors are U.S.-based. So it's very much still a U.S. business. And I think everyone who is in venture knows that, I mean, our industry is driven by the U.S., right? And I wanted to change that and collect more data about how European VC investors decide, operate, and tick in general, and also about their firm structures, about their focus areas, and how they see the European ecosystem and its strengths and weaknesses.

15:32And my role model was a U.S. paper that was done in 2015 and 2016 and got published in 2020. It was a combined research paper by Stanford, Harvard, and a few other professors that were basically doing the largest VC survey with a strong focus, again, on U.S. investors. And I looked at that paper and I really liked it. I found it super interesting because it gave really good insights on how investors decide on investments and how they take and what is important for them when they negotiate a term sheet. So it was very comprehensive. And I thought, wouldn't it be cool if we have the same data for Europe?

16:07So I tried to use the same questionnaire, the same survey for the majority of their survey, plus adapted it a bit to Europe and added a few questions also in Europe. So this was basically the foundation for the research. I'm curious to hear your reflections. You know, it's a bit of a stupid question. Well, it's also an interesting question because now you've done the study, right? So you see the results. But on the onset of this project, what were you thinking would be the usefulness of the outputs, right? Is it more of an intellectual curiosity for any VC out there? Is it more of a comparison?

16:41Are there policy outputs that can be taken out of this? I don't know, right? I'd love to hear your thoughts. So my original thought was actually nothing will come out of that. We used to have time. I originally thought that probably that won't be super interesting, but my intellectual curiosity to drive this. And then I thought maybe it's already interesting if we have data for all the things that people always talk about because there's a lot of, you know, VC is really good at anecdotal evidence and like pseudo academic blog posts. And I thought it would also maybe be super interesting to have the data to also can say, maybe we just operate the same as U.S.

17:25investors. Or maybe this is how European investors decide. Maybe the outcome is not something that people are eye-opening and people are like, wow, I've never expected that. But at least we have the data to back that. And there are a few things in the research actually that were quite interesting and that came out afterwards that maybe I did not expect. I mean, so we identified around 780 firms in Europe, VC firms that are operating and headquartered in Europe, and around 6 ,500 individual VC investors that we serve with. And this database alone, I think, is the most comprehensive database on European investors.

18:01I also want to say in this podcast, sorry for everyone that I bought out with my emails. But only a few complained, actually, so not many complained. And around 500 are answered, which is actually quite a lot. A bit less, but a lot. Just because we came off of the policy note before, I want to ask you a question, which is one of the questions in the questionnaire was, does your operational headquarter differ from the fund domicile? Which is such an innocent little question. But from a VC policy side, that is probably one of the questions that our regulators should care a little more about. Yeah, the reason why I asked it, because I already had in mind that a lot of funds are not headquartered where they're really operationally headquartered, right?

18:49I mean, maybe they run with a third-party license or maybe they are licensed somewhere else. And I think also the result shows that there are a lot of funds who are headquartered in Luxembourg, but are not really headquartered in Luxembourg. I think this is the most interesting result. We know this quite well because you're also going through the licensing process and so on. And we looked at a lot of different setups across Europe. And everyone who ever set up a fund knows that there are big differences between Germany, France, UK, Luxembourg. There are big differences. And if you look at the details, there's still a clear tendency that Luxembourg and Switzerland are just way favorable.

19:32Also the UK are way favorable to set up a fund. Could you share the number? Do you have the number with you? Almost 20 % of the people that answered said that they are domiciled in Luxembourg, but only 2 % of all the answers said they're really headquartered in Luxembourg, just to give you a perspective. And there are also a lot of funds who are legally headquartered in Switzerland from the people that answered over 20 % as well, but way less are actually operationally headquartered in Switzerland. So it's either Switzerland and Luxembourg. I would say the clear regulatory winners, if you want to call it that way.

20:10I think it has a lot to do with tax and local know-how. So, I mean, if you've gone deeper on that, there are a few things why this is the case. And I think the number one reason is for sure that there's an ecosystem that knows how to deal with funds. And we see that the regulators know about it. the whole ecosystem of service industry around funds, the tax ecosystem is beneficial. So I think there are a few reasons. A week or so ago, I was in a bar with a Danish member of parliament that when I told her what we did, she said, well, why don't you do it in Denmark? And she was super, you know, acquisitive with that question.

20:50I was like, well, it's not for tax reasons. It's just because there's no ecosystem here. If I were to reach out to a Danish lawyer, can we do it like this? He'd say, fuck no, you can't. And I'd say, well, I know that you can. He just doesn't know, right? The Danish ecosystem isn't up to the level that it needs to be for us to be able to do what we're doing here. And even if it was, then we wouldn't have the infrastructure, as you just said. Where's the startups domicile? They do this all the time. Well, their headquarters is working out of the UK. I think that's the big difference, right? But in markets where you have a strong financial service industry, London, Luxembourg, or maybe Zurich, if you stick to those three examples and you ask people, can we do it that way?

21:31They would look at you and say, depends how much you pay, right? So we can find a way to make it happen. But if you do this in France or Germany, the answer is probably no, you can't. So to everyone who's listening in, it's not because David and Andreas are paying a lot that we managed to make what we're doing work. Because everyone would know that we are hustlers. Also a disclaimer here, the podcast, I'm not talking about bribery. No, and neither is it evasion or anything. It's just about knowing how to do things. Let's just make everything different. Yes, you have lawyers, you have tax accountants, you have a whole service industry that just knows how to work with funds and financial services.

22:15That's it. It's complex, right? At the end of the day, it is complex. We oversimplify it. It is complex and it takes specialized service providers. That's the message, right? And less developed ecosystems just unfortunately don't have it yet, right? I come from Portugal, right? Really up and coming ecosystem, Lisbon, super exciting. I don't know if there's any kind of player that has really seen distributions being done yet to be able to advise a fund on how to set that up, right? That's just, it's a shame, but it is what it is, right? It's not evasion. It's nothing illegal, right? It's just experience, that's all.

22:43I have so many stories about that, but we probably stopped here. Yes, we better do those when we are together for beer in the Bahamas or wherever we'll meet. So, Andy, I'll ask you now, because it's incredibly interesting that you had the intellectual record and scientific record to almost copy the U.S. survey, because that allows us, of course, to have a comparison between what the U.S. survey showed and what your survey results show. So I'd maybe ask you if you should draw out the first point for us, a market difference between Europe and the US. What should we be talking about? I think the biggest difference what we see in the firm categorization is definitely that the US market is just way ahead.

23:28If you look at the age of the funds, I think this already shows that they are 20 years ahead and the ecosystem is just way more mature. I think this is one of the biggest highlights in terms of firm categorization. In terms of decision making and what they look at and how they operate, there are also a few differences. U.S. investors, for example, are way picky on ownership. U.S. investors are interestingly, apparently way picky on valuation, which every European investor would say is not true. So this is an interesting result. And there are a few things also when they negotiate term sheets or when they look at investments where U.S.

24:08investors are different. I think one big highlight definitely is they pay way more attention to exit markets and capital markets when they evaluate an investment way more than European counterparts could also be because there's just a lack of exit and capital markets expertise also in Europe. But besides that, I think what we also see in the data is that the overall results are very similar. So what is important when you do an investment decision, how they come up with investment decisions in the partner group, what are the things they are flexible at or not flexible at when they look at term sheets.

24:42Those things are very, very similar in Europe and in the US. And I also think that this is true to the fact that, I mean, European VC is very much influenced also by US VC and learned, I think, a lot from US VC. It's not surprising that there are a lot of similarities. Just a clarifying question there, Andy, when you talk about, So the first topic you raised before going into decision-making, you talked about the maturity level, so to speak, of the firms. And by that, I'm assuming you're talking about vintages or fund number. Just unpack that. What do you mean? How did you come to that conclusion?

25:17So, for example, in the data set, on average, the first fund was raised in 2012 of a European firm and the median was 2015. So basically, you see that most investors in Europe or most firms started during this cycle, so to say, and this upmarket versus if you look at the U.S. data, the average founding year was 1998 and the median was 2000. So a lot of it were also started during the cycle in the U.S. back then, right? Because 1998, 2000 was the hype in the U.S., but this is where most of them started. So that also shows that they're almost 20 years ahead. Do you have any, I guess, no, but I have to ask, any data insights or thoughts around DPIs as well?

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26:01Because, you know, it's another conclusion from what you're saying is it's very early days in Europe, right, for us to actually see proper DPI. Very different conversation for the US though. That's true. And also very much tied to the capital market and exit situation. US investors have a very different view on exit markets, capital markets. usually it's dpi is sort of the proven versus europe very rare big exits and rpos and a lot of let's say the the value creation in european tech in a lot of the last years is paper value so it still needs to be proven how this is going to turn out right i have a follow-up question to that i've had this reflection many times right the job of vc is to buy and sell equity right how we make money by selling that right so the exit moment is is extremely interesting Is that, and I'm asking for a personal opinion here, there's no data to back this obviously, but would you agree that the fact that we have less expertise in the VC industry in Europe on exit markets per se, is kind of a symptom that our industry kind of came to be or was born in a moment of an upcycle so that the focus is on the next round and not necessarily on the exit.

27:14And do you see it as a systemic risk to European venture or is it just a matter of development? I would love to hear your thoughts there. I think that is a very important point of the European ecosystem because if you look at past research, and we're talking about research about the European DC ecosystem of the 90s or early 2000s, there most people already said that the biggest barrier for the European ecosystem is the exit market and capital market because there's still no clear joint European capital markets with the UK leaving the European Union. and this even got worse, right? So it's for a lot of European stock exchanges, it's almost impossible to list a company that is not profitable.

27:55So there are a few barriers that makes it really hard to exit or IPO a company. Multiples are lower also in Europe, and strategic exits are not paying also the same multiples, plus there's not such a strong private equity ecosystem as well as there is in the U.S. So I think there are a few things that play into that. I think on the last few years, a lot of funds, I think, will realize that it would have been a good idea to exit or to do a secondary or to take some money off the table or to not optimize only for the next one because you still think this can be a$10 billion company, but you maybe exit earlier and was a$4 billion company.

28:36Maybe those four was already overvalued, right? So I think that is a big learning curve for the European ecosystem, including us, including everyone. I think that the last few years, it probably would have been good to exit some companies. One U.S. investor said to me, everyone who didn't IPO the last two years will never IPO. And that's what they said last year. And I think it shows a lot that how U.S. investors think in that sense. They knew that this is a window of opportunity that is probably really perfect versus European investors where I had the impression most of them still thought this goes on forever.

29:11Yeah, it's the name of the game. I'm curious because I have a thesis around European VC that is that I've got quite a few more players that minimize downside more than they focus on upside maximization, even to the level where I'd say I'm not even sure I'd call them VCs. And as such, you might also have skewed data here because it's Speedinvest and the equation and so on that have made the survey. And as such, it might be a bit inside the LinkedIn bubble, the survey respondents, and feel free to reply to that as well. No LinkedIn bubble, no LinkedIn bubble. No LinkedIn bubble, never. Only verified investors via email.

29:55Otherwise you would have a really skewed data set. I still think that there's definitely a lot of people that are out there raising VC funds or styling themselves as VCs, but don't know what superventor is, or I've never even considered going to some of the more VC insider conferences. And as such, are in many ways peripheral to the industry, where I mean that the way you distribute a survey always has impacts as to who ends up replying. But I'd love to ask you the question because I saw two questions in the survey that that really sparked my interest there is comparing that to the US, which is what is your required IRR for an investment?

30:37And also the same question, but just on the cash on cash multiple. What I imagine is that, for my thesis to be true, we should definitely have lower return on investment goals in Europe than what they usually have in the US. I'd love to ask you the comparison there. The moment of truth here. Are you right or wrong, Andreas? What you're saying is that we have lower IRR expectations expectations than the U.S.? Yes. It's not really true. So the median IRR for European investors was 30%, average being 34%. And the top quartile, where you would say those are probably the most, let's say, aggressive funds, or I would say your definition, the most venture-like funds, is 40 % plus.

31:22So the upper quartile starts at 40 % plus. And the multiple there starts at 10%. And the median is 5x. But the upper quarter of sunset 10X, which is very similar to the US, although you have in the US data set also sometimes higher IRR expectations for the late stage set of investors. But this is also due to lower holding periods. Just to make sure I understand there, Andy, did you look at that data per stage or is that just a side comment you're doing? Just to be sure we understand. That's a side comment. So in the US, they split it in early and late stage and the combined results are very similar to the European data.

32:04We didn't split it into early and late stage because there was a very strong bias towards early stage. The numbers are very similar. Just I have to push for my co-founder's perspective, right? Would it be fair to say, and it's an honest question, would it be fair to say that there might be a slight difference though? because as you said, right, the European data is mostly early stage. And then in the US, you have it a bit less biased towards early stage, I would guess. But then the aggregate numbers are somewhat similar. And as you said, later stage, the expectations are lower given the lower holding periods.

32:34Would that be kind of a fair deduction to make? Yeah, if you basically condense the question and say the average for early stage investors in Europe was 34 % and the average IR for early-stage investors in the U.S. was 33%. So this is very, very similar. It's the same. And if you split it down into early and late-stage, then there are differences. That is, we didn't ask the question, but looking at the math, that is pretty much driven by holding periods because if you have an early-stage deal for 10 years and your goal is, I don't know, 20%, 25%, Whereas as you are pre-IPO and you want to do pre-X in like four years, it's a very different game.

33:19But if you look at the early stage samples, the data is very similar. But then I have to ask you guys a question and indulge me in this discussion, right? Because I have always heavily assumed that we had more investors in Europe that were playing a downside minimization game and going for fewer moonshots. shots. And as such, you know, I am surprised at this number because I get it if they target the same somewhat IR for the whole fund, but that's different, right? But if you say that I don't want my companies to die, which is there's many, at least I'm seeing many texts from people that have a portfolio model that kind of is less aggressive than I would say is typical venture.

34:03So for that reason, I am quite baffled by that. I would think this to Andrea's UVC, There's also a point here on the feedback loops, right? They're so long. And I think anyone operating in venture without learning and iterating and integrating that into their thought process isn't really doing a good job, right? And I think there's something to be said where, what is your expectation after delivering DPI a couple of times? What is your expectation prior to ever delivering DPI? And I think the data sets are not comparable 100 % also for that reason, right? We see that as well ourselves in our day-to-day business where we have aspiring VCs that think they will deliver 10X.

34:43And well, good luck, but it doesn't mean you will. If you have delivered 7X, 8X, maybe now you have a different mind state coming to it. On the company level, though, that's why I'm baffled at the results. Because on the company level, you always know that even when you go in with the moonshot view, you'll say, I know that 80 % are going to be not much worth. but then I wouldn't aim for 33 % on just the two companies that succeed, right? A few aspects to that. I think the first is maybe they just answer their wishful thinking, right? But in general, I'm not agreeing. I think that the mindset in Europe has shifted a lot.

35:22And we also got responses from, I would say, all the tier one investors there in Europe. So it could be the case that this set of investors already very much thinks and acts like the US, so to say. And also what we see in our daily life, I think, is that the mindset in Europe for the last years has changed quite a lot, focusing more on upside rather than minimizing downside. I think it has changed a lot. But I'm with you. When I started in venture, let's say 2015, for example, it was still very different because there was things like milestone-based investing where it was normal. And there were a lot of things that you don't see anymore.

36:00And the mindset has shifted way more. and as David said, it also comes very much down to experience because people I think realized over the last years BC is so much driven by power law, it doesn't make sense to get your money back on that deal if you look from a fund economics perspective. People realized the only thing that matters is really to optimize for the upside because everything else will never thrive return. It might be a good story, but it does not really thrive return And I think that's what people had to learn and also have to learn still, I think. I have one question, which is, and that's another difference that I have always also assumed between Europe and US being different, which is the, and here you asked the question, what percentage of your investments are syndicated?

36:49So that means you're not asking the question, how many are in that syndicate? And I actually kind of think that that's where I think that we would see the biggest difference, meaning I think most rounds are put together between multiple VCs. But typically, the number of investors is larger in the US than here. I'd love to ask if you have any views on that, Andy. So what we see in the data is that median being 80%, so 80 % of all rounds syndicated. It doesn't really break down in how that syndication looks like. I'm not saying this is like a 50-50 co-investment, but 80 % of the rounds are syndicated, which is very much in line of, let's say, our experience in the day-to-day practice that most rounds are syndicated, what form or the other.

37:3550 % roughly of the fund said that complementary expertise is the most important factor. 25 % roughly said that risk sharing is the most important reason. Only 21 % said it's about capital constraints. So when people form a syndicate, it comes way more about complementary expertise, risk sharing, different perspective, rather than we just need the money. And also when they choose a syndication partner, so when European funds choose a syndication partner, it's a lot about sector expertise, track record. So this shows that people, A, love to syndicate rounds, and B, choosing a syndication partner is driven by a lot of soft factors, not really about hard factors, meaning they need more money.

38:21And the difference in the U.S. is a bit U.S. rounds less syndicated because U.S. investors strive for more ownership. So that was one of the results where European and U.S. investors differ a lot. U.S. investors strive for 20 % plus ownership, which probably comes also down a bit to more experience. to realize that if you want to make fund economics work, you need better ownership. And European investors strive for less ownership. But I expect that European investors will move up over the next years because they will realize the same and they will go for the same learning curve. But that's why a lot of rounds are not syndicated because they usually, as we call it in VC, they take the whole round.

38:58And everyone who ever worked with US investors knows that this happens in a lot of cases. They say, no, there's no space. Whereas European investors who are more like, yeah let's find that work because syndicated works very well. That's super interesting. Andreas from your VC is it right to say that it might also be your perspective might also be that you have on the early stages of venture in the US you have a lot of more self-governed syndicates happening rather than institutional rounds happening whilst in Europe you have mostly all players are pre-seed-seed focused so it's a very different market dynamics.

39:33Would that be the case maybe? It's also when you look at the question, right, you say it's, and I didn't pick that up, but it does specify that this is between VCs, not other angels. Basically, just syndicate rounds. It doesn't specify. That's true. I think what is unique, I think, in Europe, but that is just my add-on, is a lot of investors want to build up track record. So this thing of a logo ticket or a logo deal, which if you really do the math, doesn't really make sense. But a lot of investors, as we have seen in the data, are super young. A lot of them want to build up track record. And that's why I think a lot of people syndicate rounds or do smaller tickets in rounds just to be there.

40:18And this is definitely something that comes down a bit to the young ecosystem in Europe. Andy, we got excited with the discussion, got sidetracked. three or four times, I think. And so instead of ending with the quick fire round, I'm going to end with a little teaser of more of what anyone can read in said report or results of the survey. So could you give us a quick rundown, Andy, of the fragmentation of Europe? Is that an issue? Is it not? Is Europe fragmented as a market in venture? Yes, the European ecosystem is fragmented. I think what we see is strong hubs in the core economies, being France, Germany, UK, almost 50 % of all firms, VC firms in Europe are located in those three countries.

41:05But there are also a lot of other hubs, Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Luxembourg, that are highlighted here. So we see that there are above 10 countries, Europe, that actually play a role in the European ecosystem, which showed that there is no one single hub or no, let's say, European San Francisco or New York. But there are many hubs, although, of course, the most important ones are the usual suspects like London, Berlin, Paris, Stockholm. But the main reason when we ask investors, why do you think the European market is fragmented when there's no single European market, so to say, in the BC ecosystem?

41:4670 % said it's about cultural differences. Almost 70 % also said different maturity of the regions and ecosystems, and 65 % said the regulatory environments are different, and 55 % said a lot of the cultural differences are to the language barriers. So you see there are many different reasons why investors say that the European market is fragmented. What was also interesting is that investors said the geographical distance does not play a role. So as we all know, you can hop on a plane or on a train and you're pretty much everywhere in Europe. So that doesn't really seem to be a hurdle. It's really more about the regulatory environment, the different maturity, the cultural and language differences that still make it, let's say, different ecosystems.

42:34And that can also be seen in the focus areas of the firms. So a lot of VC firms in Europe have a specific geographic focus. There are not many investors who really focus on all of Europe, but focus on the Nordics or focus on UK or focus on DACH. So I think that is also a bit due to the fragmentation of the ecosystem. And I can go on and go on because there are a lot of other things to say about the European ecosystem. But I think it shows that there's still a long way to go. which also maybe comes down to close the loop to the policy discussion we had, there are probably a few things you can try from the regulatory side, the policy side to make the European ecosystem more like one common ecosystem.

43:22Andy, thank you for your time with us on the European VC Podcast. It was super cool. I think it was really insightful, really cool discussion. One of the few episodes where we had the opportunity to share different views, get debunked, get questioned, question you, and the other way around. It was super, super fun. and to all our listeners, you know, the results are available now. So go check them out and shoot us any comments, interact with us on LinkedIn, whatever you think is best. And thanks a lot for having me. Of course, we enjoyed it. And now some words from our beloved sponsors. How are you currently reporting to your LPs?

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From the publisher
Today we are happy to welcome Andreas Schwarzenbrunner, Partner at Speedinvest, one of Europe’s most active early-stage investors with more than €1 billion AuM and 40+ investors based in Berlin, London, Munich, Paris, and Vienna. Andy found his way into Venture via politics - and is always up for a debate. This gave him an exceptionally good eye for promising ideas and trends.

In this episode you’ll learn:

- Andy’s journey from politics to VC and the edge having a different background gives him today

- What 6000+ VCs say about how they make decisions

- A discussion of how the European results differ from the US results

- Where funds choose to domicile, why and the implications of this on a policy level

- A discussion of why IRR and MOIC requirements are the same for US and EU VCs and why that surprises Andreas

- Why 90% of EU VCs say Europe is fragmented and what the causes of this is

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