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Podcast Notes: EUVC - Episode E356 | Dan Bowyer & Mads Jensen, SuperSeed
Episode Overview Date: September 20, 2023 Hosts: Andreas Munk Holm and David Cruz e Silva Guests: Dan Bowyer and Mads Jensen (SuperSeed), Monique Pham (Pact Ventures) Topics Covered:
- Startups leaving the UK
- US interest rate cuts
- The Labour party's growth plan
- Germany’s €12B startup investment initiative
- The EU’s inaugural commissioner for startups
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Episode Breakdown
- Today's Agenda
- Discussion of various topics including:
- Startups relocating to the US
- Economic implications of US interest rate cuts
- The Labour party's growth strategies
- Germany’s new funding for startups
- The role of the EU commissioner for startups
- Background of Monique Pham
- Monique details her career trajectory:
- Legal background
- Founder of PACT Ventures after previously launching Fuel Ventures
- Experience in legal tech and angel investing
- Startups Leaving the UK
- Case Study: AI Startup 11X
- Relocated to the US for better access to funding and talent.
- Highlights the challenges European startups face in securing follow-on funding.
- Discussion on the need for the EU to create a more favorable environment for startups to remain in Europe.
- US Interest Rate Cuts
- The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
- Implications:
- Expected economic stimulation via cheaper borrowing costs.
- Potential improvement in investment dynamics for startups and public markets.
- Consideration of how these changes in the US economy could influence Europe.
- UK's Economic Challenges
- The Labour party's growth plan amidst high debt and economic issues.
- Discussion on the need for bold decisions on investment in infrastructure and innovation.
- Potential impact of proposed carry tax on investment in the UK.
- Germany's €12B Startup Initiative
- Germany commits to a significant investment in startups through a collaboration of major pension funds and government backing.
- This investment aims to reposition Germany’s reputation in the startup ecosystem.
- EU's New Commissioner for Startups
- Introduction of Ekaterina Zaharieva as the first commissioner focused on startups.
- Discussion around her potential influence on improving the startup ecosystem in Europe.
- The need for a unified market to facilitate the growth of startups across Europe.
- Proxies for Economic Health
- Examination of indicators used to assess economic health (e.g., corporate bookings, consumer trends).
- Importance of startups adapting to market conditions and identifying new opportunities during economic downturns.
- The Role of AI
- Discussion on the transformative role of AI in businesses.
- Challenges and opportunities associated with AI regulation and innovation within Europe.
- Closing Thoughts
- Emphasis on collaboration between government and businesses to drive innovation.
- Skepticism towards heavy-handed regulation; a call for a balanced approach to encourage development while managing risks.
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Key Takeaways
- Investment Focus: There is a critical need for European governments to provide a nurturing environment for startups, as evidenced by the movement of companies like 11X to the US for better opportunities.
- Economic Signals: US interest rates can have a ripple effect on European markets; businesses should remain vigilant about macroeconomic indicators that impact startup environments.
- Government Role: The effectiveness of new policies depends on the government's willingness to engage with the startup ecosystem proactively.
- AI and Innovation: The future of AI regulation needs careful consideration to avoid stifling innovation while ensuring safety and ethical standards.
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Final Remarks The discussion highlighted the interconnectedness of global markets, the urgency for innovation in Europe, and the critical role government plays alongside private sectors in fostering a thriving startup ecosystem. The episode closes with a hopeful outlook for the future of European VC and innovation, urging for swift and bold actions to capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Hello and welcome everyone. It's the European VC. Welcome we have Monique, we have Mads. We've got a very long docket today. Today we're talking about interest rate cuts in the US. Can Labour deliver a credible plan for growth? A little bit about the UK economy. Germany is waking up some big news from Germany on the investment side. We've got our first ever commissioner for startups in the EU. What will that mean? Proxies for economic health looking at startups and how they can look at proxies to see how their economies are doing. A Naval quote that I love. And if we have time, we're going to get to Apple's new patent.
0:36So that's what's on the docket. Here's a few words from our beloved sponsor. How2Web conference is the leading startup and technology conference in Eastern Europe. You're shitting me! The 2024 edition takes place on October 2nd to the 3rd in Bukhara. You tell him I'll be there! You can enter the most electric space for doing business and building technology in Eastern Europe. There you'll find 3 ,000 plus international attendees, 500 plus startups, 200 plus investors, 100 plus global speakers, and infinite possibilities to connect and get inspired for your next move. Venture funds joining include Creandum, Atomaco, North Zone, Seedcamp, Kokoa, 3VC, Startup Wiseguys, Salesforce Ventures, Common Magic and many more.
1:21That's a lot more than 10 guys. How2Web conference also hosts Spotlight, the early stage startup program and competition for Eastern European founders, gathering the sharpest founders in the region. See you there.
1:40It's more than just an alliance. This is a union of values. United and determined, we can serve as a model for other regions of the world. The nature of a problem requires a European response. Europe is a story of new beginnings. Let's start acting. This show is not investment advice, and the hosts of this episode may be invested in the funds and companies featured. Welcome, Monique. Welcome, Mads, my beautiful partner. I love you. Monique, thank you so much for joining us today. Now, tell us a little bit about you, because all I really know about you is that you and the PAC ladies are doing your pre-seed and seed ABCs, your access, betterment and climate.
2:31But I don't know much about your past. So give us the 30 seconds of you. Yeah, so background in law and then prior to launching PACT, I launched another early stage fund called Fuel Ventures along with the founder, Mark, and built that fund for a few years. And then in between PACT and Fuel, I spent some time in operator roles in a legal tech company, headed up the UK operations. They got acquired by DocuSign and then another portfolio company of mine. And then, yeah, I did some angel investing, working with some family offices in between and then launched PACT. And PACT is about four years old, I think, if memory serves.
3:04Officially two years old. Two. Oh, okay. A little bit shorter. Thank you for joining us. No, thanks for having me. I think we're kicking off with you on your one is up first. So now the AI Startup 11X, now they do the automated AI worker sales and customer support piece. They have, after their$24 million Series A from Benchmark and a few other investors, they've shipped over to the States. Now, this was a little bit of a push from the investors, but it's also to be where the AI talent is and be where the follow on funding is. This is on your docket. What was on your mind with this? Yeah, well, I think all of the topics we're going to kind of cover really relate to this.
3:43Right. So it's, you know, the follow on funding. Is it really available here? I think there's probably a handful of funds that could have could have invested in such a large round. But even that aside, the fact that they chose to go with the US investor said something, the fact that you know even bring the European Commissioner in how do you make the European ecosystem a lot more attractive to allow companies and founders to stay in the region there isn't really much here available for them so I think as I mentioned yes so all of the topics we'll cover later on I think all relate to this how we can encourage more companies to stay here whether there's a listing environment IPO market you know kind of quite stagnant so far this year so yeah I think it's quite concerning you don't really want companies of this stage and this kind of level of success to leave the country and go over to the US.
4:28So, yeah, I think there's a lot the government needs to do in order to encourage people to stay, whether it's talent, funding, tax breaks and so on. What do you do with your portfolio? Do you encourage them to head over to the States to sell, raise, exit? What's your what's your shtick? We don't. It all depends on the companies and sectors they're operating in. We actually just invest in three companies in the US. actually two of them are European founders and they're choosing to launch their second businesses in the US. But, you know, we, I don't necessarily think one's in climate tech serving corn farmers and one's in AI.
5:03So especially the climate tech one, the market is in the US. So absolutely, they should be over there. But, you know, we don't actively encourage them. We have a partner base in the US now, but, you know, we're not sourcing from the US. We're encouraging our companies to raise funding from European founders. But ultimately, the US funds are bigger and better, frankly in the US so if they do get get a term sheet from a US fund you know we won't tell them to turn it down okay this is the million dollar question when do you think Europe's gonna gonna be able to go toe-to-toe I'm not sure I think I mean be interested what the European Commissioner for startups will will introduce I think there's the UK I mean I think I read first half of the year the UK raised more fund VC companies raised more funding than China so that's a good sign so So there's clear signs of, you know, there is money out there.
5:52There is drive harder. There's interesting companies being launched. I don't know about you guys, but deals and rounds are getting more competitive. Round size are getting bigger. So there's action happening, but it's kind of, what does it take to keep them here? I'm not quite sure just yet. Well, I mean, the European venture is growing four times faster than the States. It's just still the minnow. Mads, you and I talk about this a lot. What's your take? Firstly, I think Monique is absolutely right. We have seen companies go to the US, and it would be great if we could have more of those businesses in Europe and keep more of them here for longer.
6:24If we want to have a prosperous continent, whether it's UK or the rest of Europe, we need the great innovation companies here, the great founders, and the great startups. I think the good news is, as you say, there has been some incredible companies built. We've got companies like Revolut. We've got companies like Spotify, just exceptional businesses. and they're here in Europe and they're thriving and doing really, really well. Then we also see companies like UY Path that decide that actually they do want a headquarter in the U.S., but they keep a lot of their engineering in Europe. And I think that could also be a good model.
6:56I think it's a little sad when we see companies that sort of just say they want to relocate, lock stock and wholesale and migrate everything. Maybe because 11X was so early, they felt there wasn't much to move. It was an easier move to make. but I do hope we can keep more of the great companies here for longer to grow bigger and better. And I think part of the good news is we've seen firms like Balderton, firms like Atomico finally start to raise funds in the billion dollar plus range because we need that amount of capital and that kind of level of support and ecosystem here. To some extent, European venture is still a cottage industry.
7:33That's what we need to grow out of. So I think there is a lot more we can do. And I think it is moving in the right direction, albeit we'd all like it to be much faster. Yeah, let's bring on some speed. Now, we're staying with the States. The Fed has done a 50 bips drop. That rate cut, that interest rate cut, what will it mean for investing and startup land over there? And how will that reflect over here? Mads, do you want to kick off? Yeah, so the big non-news news, we've sort of all been waiting for this rate cut for a long, long time. I think that the news part of the non-news is that the Fed did go for the 50 bps rate cut rather than 25 bps.
8:16So the target rate is now from sort of the 4.75 % to 5%. And the reason the Fed went for the bigger cut is essentially that there are now some real concerns about economic slowdown. And the Fed essentially said, look, there is a risk that we could start to see unemployment creep back up. And therefore, we need to take a little bit more drastic action. We've had slower GDP growth, higher unemployment, and also inflation has come down 2.6 % now. So it's going in the right direction. What does it mean? If we look at the Federal Reserve's dot plot, they're forecasting sort of another half percentage point in 2024.
8:57So a percent in total here in Q3 and Q4 in total. And then another full percentage point in 2025 and expecting rates to settle somewhere near the 2.9 % in the following years. So while that's a lot higher than the SERP environment we had, so the zero percent interest rate environment we had a few years ago, it's a lot lower than where we are now. And this means a lot of things. It means a boost to real estate investments, which is critical to drive the economy. It means a boost to other business investment, to consumer credit. And in general, it means a boost to equity over credit. You know, get paid less to lend money, and that means that equity becomes more attractive.
9:38And that's great both for funding for startups, but could also be great for public market equities. It could be good for potentially future IPOs. So I'd say it's a small step, but coming years, this could be a major change for us. One question you touched on is, what does it mean for us? When the US sneezes, the world catches a cold. And I think that also goes the other way around. If the US starts to lower rates and can start to stimulate the economy, that will have a positive impact for us and benefit for us, both on the macroeconomic scale in Europe, but also in the startup ecosystem. So overall, I'd say this is good news.
10:19Monique, any reflections on this? any insights or thoughts on the inertia, the time period between these kinds of effects and seeing change and rubber hit road? Yeah, I think, look, if, you know, borrowing is becoming cheaper, you know, investors are typically going to look for more higher returns, more interesting opportunities besides kind of lower yield returns. So I think ultimately, you know, it's a huge positive. Maybe kind of in the next six to 12 months, we'll see it reflected in kind of prices in the companies we invest in. And hopefully that will trickle down to Europe. some point next year it's very tricky trickle down economics there we go um so reflecting that news back into the uk and reading a report on labor being able to deliver a credible plan for growth now this is possibly a very long and winding topic let's not go to the nth degree here but reeves has got a bit of a job cut out you know she has inherited a a pretty dire solution situation, underinvestment, high debt, aging population, high interest rates, economic fallout from Brexit.
11:27And the OBR is suggesting, to state the obvious, that enhancing productivity growth could significantly reduce future debt. I mean, of course. So I guess the question for us is, do we think that this government will make the bold decisions to invest in infrastructure, innovation, and open back up the economy to talent and capital? Or do you think they'll take the political safety route? So will they? And what can they do? And where would you start? Monique, do you have any thoughts on this? Well, firstly, I wouldn't implement the carry tax that they're planning to. So I think that's a massive, massive issue that a lot of kind of our peers are talking about.
12:10But yeah, I think ultimately, they've got a huge, huge job to do. I think when it comes to things like, I think to our industry specifically, you know, there was a few kind of, was it last year at some point talking about pension funds, being able to invest in venture funds. Like there is such little innovation happening in on the investment side, not just from a government level, but down to, you know, people who manage money like us. So, you know, I don't quite know what their plan is right now, but especially things like the carry tax, I think that'd be such an issue. and a lot of people will probably leave kind of the UK in terms of where they manage and run their funds.
12:46What one thing would you do? If you've got one thing on your mind, apart from the carry tax, what one thing would you, if you were in her shoes, what would you do? Good question. Maybe make access to funding a bit kind of easier and cheaper, both whether it's kind of a small SME level, whether it's, you know, getting kind of bank loans to launch businesses. whether it's things like easier to hire people. And so I think it's just kind of allowing people to launch and start business. I think that's essentially the issue right now, the cost of living so high. People are not taking risks to leave their jobs.
13:22And, you know, school fees are going up. And there's just so much to think about before you say, actually, I'm going to go and launch a really interesting business. So I think I'd address that issue first and foremost. I think do you know I think I'd go for I'd make it so attractive for pension funds and institutions to invest in earlier stage I'd probably go on the on the on the other end of that seesaw Maz any any thoughts on this no I think you're right you gotta you know try and play with the levers you have and maybe that is one of them you know as we've talked about before on the pod the obvious overwhelming thing to do the only thing really you can do that isn't going to cost you a lot of money is to fix the relationship with Europe and some of those trade barriers that we've been erecting down again.
14:10Because our trade intensity has been declining over the last few years. What does that mean? Trade as a proportion of the economy is just going down because we've been trying to sever ties with our biggest trading partner, which is nonsense. So if you've said from this onset, look, we're not going to borrow to invest. We're not going to do infrastructure. we're not going to do some of those things that could stimulate the economy. Well, then you have to trade more. And that's just the obvious place to trade. If for political reasons you determine you can't do that, well, then I think your idea around pension funds is the other major one.
14:44But the government has really hemmed themselves in. If they're saying, you know, we can't touch EU relations, we can't borrow to invest, you're really starting to get a limited range of things. And you almost get into that, okay, well, just don't do stupid stuff. And, you know, there are a few things we're good at in the UK. Financial services is one of them. And with some of these tax changes that have been implemented already and are being proposed, you are really threatening, I think, the great financial sector we have, which is as a driver. you know it's not that we have a london the city of london is just something that's there for british business is there for all of all of europe's businesses to finance to lend to trade to do deals to service which trickles down to lawyers and accountants and kind of really creates all of that economic prosperity that then benefits everybody else so we've got to stimulate it rather than hamper it and so i think that falls in the don't do stupid stuff as in you know don't don't jeopardize that gem we have there you know nurture it rather than than hurt it so germany have have basically done what we have kind of been talking about or insinuating they through their win initiative they have the largest pension scheme in germany the bearish or i'm not gonna say this word the song and karma bvk with blackrock with alliance with munich re with axa amongst others so they're all in this group committing to invest 12 billion euros in startups so they and with government backing and with regulatory change i don't know the reality of this and where this fits in context reading behind the headlines it looks like they're talking about it's about 30 billion euros that's that they say that's needed per year to to do this kind of this startup play so it's whatever just under half but this is this is a big deal this sounds this sounds like a big deal in context and because germany has always been seen slightly as the laggard german notaries very difficult trading arena for startups and for investors but this feels like a bit of a bit of a cosmic shift so monique is it is is this a big deal do you think 100 % it's a big deal.
17:05I think, you know, having a label of the sick man of Europe is, you know, at least they're trying to do something about it. And I think they've got it absolutely right, where innovation happens at the point where you need access to capital, as I just mentioned. And, you know, the UK talked about this kind of at some point last year, but there is no plan to launch this. I think, for example, in, you know, Europe, we're a lot more risk averse to investing in companies. That's why the company we just backed went to US to raise up funding and raise relatively quickly so i think if there is no way um to allow kind of investment to go into kind of innovation and technology then the dial isn't really going to move we can talk about all the all the interest rate cuts and and all the kind of you know tax breaks but if no one's building anything then none of it matters so i think this is such a great step and actually we we've done we were quite successful in raising money from germany um more so than the uk so i think that alone says something um so yes i mean they haven't explained in detail how they're going to do this but I think it's a great first step.
18:04I hope so. I mean, I hope it's kind of in the earlier stages because startups can mean, you know, there are 10-year-old startups that aren't startups. So I'm hoping that there is a blend of early, mid growth, but 12 billion is a big pot. I wonder if they'll invest in funds as well. So that would be an interesting, if it's kind of to go to the early, early stage, I think investing in funds would be kind of a great opportunity. Yeah, I didn't read anything about a fund-to-fund structure, but that would make complete sense yeah mads where would you go with this look it's good news in the sense that europe needs more capital and needs deeper pools of capital and if some of this capital is going to become growth capital that will you know as we just talked about earlier on help companies stay in europe longer you know take bigger swings go deeper then that's a positive thing i think the devil will be in the detail you know we saw with the mansion house compact last year, you talk about investing 5 % of all UK pension assets into alternatives.
19:08It could be a massive boost for our sector, alternatives to private equity, venture capital in general. But we just haven't seen much since then. And I hope that the German initiative here will have a little bit more detail and have a little bit more of an impetus to actually get moving and get going because the money is needed. So yeah, hopefully it's real and not just a headline. but it feels it feels like the names are backing it up with a cash amount on a time scale backed up by regulatory change if i listen i'm only reading i'm only reading the reports but it feels like there's like almost like smart objectives around it like some and also feels like to me just to just to be uh um inappropriate it feels like the germans will do it i mean if there is a country that's going to get up and do it the germans are going to bloody do it so i you know i'm very envious so we have staying in Europe we've got our first ever commissioner for startups research and innovation Ekaterina Zaharieva is a Bulgarian ex-commissioner sorry she was the ex-foreign affairs minister and the ex-vice president she's now the commissioner for research and innovation in startups her priority is to help the EU invest more and focus spending on strategic priorities on groundbreaking innovation.
20:25She's looking at the startup end across the EU spectrum. Also the European Innovation Act and on a startup and scale up strategy to improve the conditions for such businesses. And she's also looking at the AI Research Council to poor resources. Now, I don't know what any of that means in reality. What can she do? How many teeth will she have? But it feels like a step change to at least have this discussed and at least have this as part of the EU think pool. So Monique, is this going to have any impact? Is this going to make any waves? I think it will take some time for it to actually have an impact because I think it goes back to the point of European companies raising money from the US.
21:13It's a larger market. It's one market, English speaking and so on. So I think a few things they need to address is just like the fragmentation between the different systems and kind of nations i think how i don't know what the answer is but just how how is it how are we able to kind of get over the bureaucratic the legal all kind of the the structures that there are in each region whether it's in a i don't know software companies your favorite topics um where you know if you are a b2b sas company trying to sell into each different regions like how do you how do it create a kind of a standardized system that allows innovation to actually go into these regions and so companies are not looking outside of their home countries um to you know access customers and growth and funding and so on i think that would be an interesting opportunity i don't know how she'll do it um but yeah that's something i would address we were talking to leo ringer recently he was talking about the kind of the delaware style startup passport um so maybe there's something on the investor side that just crosses borders and maybe there's something on the startup side or some kind of allowance for early stage businesses that crosses borders.
22:17That feels like a very practical way of solving this or a small part of it. Mads, what's your take? Yeah, I think you're right. I hope that's where they're going to go. We have massive productivity issues in Europe, but that's both in the EU and the UK. And we know that technology is the bedrock of productivity growth. And we know that startups are the best way to rapidly commercialize new technology. So we need more successful startups. And so that's the whole thinking here. I guess we create a new commissioner and they can help make more successful startups. And then it seems like a good idea.
22:53But to the question of whether it would work, I don't know. Startups really are the antithesis of governments and central planning. You know, we know probably no government had more ministers than the Soviet Union, right? It's kind of when everything is planned centrally, you have lots of ministers. But that's just not how startups work. It seems that most of what needs to happen is pretty far from central government in many ways. I don't know what the European Innovation Act will be able to do. I think, as you say, there are possibly some things they can do around creating a new legal entity and enable it to operate freely anywhere in Europe, kind of this passport you're talking about.
23:34Ideally, this could include the UK. Why not? Why not make sort of an agreement around it? I think we should. I think one thing they should focus on is making it easier to raise venture capital from across Europe. There is a lot of balkanization there around the rules, the barriers that are put up. We need to complete the single market to make it easier for startups to sell everywhere. And some of these are really big things. There are things that are already sort of within the remit of other kind of other directorates and other commissioners and not necessarily in the remit of the new commissioner's job.
24:10But if she can convene the relevant bodies and help champion startups, then, you know, that could be a good thing. So I would say the proof will be in the pudding here and hopefully it will work. Hopefully we'll see it fairly in short shrift. I think my lessons from looking at the States are it has to be bold and it has to be fast. It cannot take 10 years to bed in. It cannot be small, mealy-mouthed, incremental. It has to be quite some bold activity and fairly fast, especially if we, as the European Union, and I do include the UK in that, If we're going to take advantage of AI and we're going to really leverage this moment in time, it has to be bold and quick.
24:55And this is exactly the problem. So the single market is the biggest, boldest, most ambitious thing we've undertaken in Europe. It was kind of one of the early proponents was Margaret Thatcher. It's sometimes forgotten, right? But she knew and could see that if we can create one market here for half a billion people, how powerful that would be. And we make great strides, but we've also worked on it for 35 years and we are not done yet. And so I guess my slight skepticism perhaps is, you know, will a commissioner for startups be able to really move the needle on that? Because that's what we need.
25:32We need that single European market to be completed so you have true freedom to operate and sell everywhere, regardless of the local jurisdiction. That's the one thing. The other thing is, when you look at the European Union, it doesn't have much in the way of budgets. The EU budgets are 1 % of EU GDP. It's not comparable to the US federal budget. So you just don't have the ability to take those big swings that were done with the Inflation Reduction Act or the CHIPS Act. Now again, could that change? Should that change? I would argue it probably should. But that's probably beyond the remit of just this sort of one commissioner.
26:12So it seems to me that some of the things you're dealing with are quite systemic. And I guess my slight concern is, does this now become an excuse to say, great, we've got a commissioner. Let's make a nice talk shop. Let's make some nice declarations. But actually, we're not going to address some of the fundamental things that need to be solved to really move the needle on this. Okay, so that's perhaps a bit skeptical here from the onset. We are such miseries, my goodness. listen let's let's let's hope she has teeth let's hope there's some activity i'm i'm gonna i'm gonna watch with intrigue and interest now this is this next topic is mine this is something that came up with my wife the other night ago and she she works for a very well-known global hotel brand and she was telling me the last 12 months corporate bookings have fallen off a cliff and i was wondering is that a proxy for something and if i was a founder in a startup what kind of proxies what kind of what kind of triggers themes trends would i be looking at in my customer base with my partner network in my ecosystem as as the health of the economy if you like so looking at like car prices or you know booking bookings in corporate land or um tgi fridays recently went into administration are people not going out as much a holiday bookings down a car price is down I know what are these things and I don't know if this I know this is a bit of a weird rambly one but it just made me think if I was in you know investing in the startup world what would the proxies be that I would look at to monitor the health of my economy now Monique do you have any thoughts on this I don't think it's particularly kind of shocking that bookings are down you know I mean I think high street brands and kind of chains like that have been going into administration for a couple of years now but I think the corporate booking and travel and the one's interesting because after covid obviously there was this whole kind of everyone's going back out everyone's going on holidays and people are spending it's the one thing people don't cut on so i think that is worrying and then from a startup perspective um you know actually quite ironically kind of last couple of weeks and months a lot of the the the hotel booking management companies are raising a lot of funding and i think a few of them even listed so um no i'm not quite sure actually sorry not a great answer not something no it's a it's a weird and winding one it was just it was kind of a little thought experiment i was kind of running in my head it's like what would i what would i be looking at and and conversely where are the opportunities because every downturn every problematic period of time creates opportunities for startups and i was thinking where is my market going if i wasn't found ahead and where is the opportunity not not to be a terrible human being but where is the opportunity in this you know whatever economic shift in my market that i can actually actually create a new icp or move territory or create a new product or whatever it might be mads have you got any thoughts on this look economists look at lots of leading indicators consumer confidence index purchasing managers index you can look at you know forecasts and you look at you know jobless claims to see how the economy is doing there's so many things you can look at.
29:25I think it depends on what it is you're trying to work out. My general experience is that startups are very small. They're drops in the ocean. And so it's often less about macro and much more about micro, as in, do you have a compelling value proposition? Can you create value for your customers? Of course, that changes as you grow bigger, right? Once you start to become a more meaningful part of the economy. You're more subject to the vagaries of the economic cycle. I'd say one observation, one thing that we have seen, which is less about the economy and is more about bigger trends, is that if you are in B2B technology and you're selling into large corporates, well, if you're selling things that have AI and AI impact and AI transformation, You've had a great time behind you the last 18 months because that's what corporates have been focusing on.
30:24The converse of that is even if you've had a good solution that has been able to create ROI, if you've not had AI innovation as part of your messaging, it's been really, really hard to sell. And so this is less about the economy and just more about how you're positioned vis-a-vis how businesses are thinking and where their focuses and their priorities are. so sometimes these are driven purely by macro sometimes these are driven by trends and ai is the overriding trend right now um but i think that the net net is just always obsess about creating customer value right the kind of the rest the rest takes care of itself yeah i was at a i was at a talk with nick telson the other night um talking about moats so a bunch of founders in the room we were talking about moats and it basically came down to there were some different ways of looking at modes personally i look at motors you know time advantage and asymmetric advantage in time how do you how do you create those um but we were talking about just a bit like the y combinator advice just build something that people care about just keep keep working on your customer set just build value just create value which i think is which is probably the most important message above all and i want to finish on this one um i was reading naval who who often tweets whatever it's called now x is i don't know what the right vernacular is he often uh pushes these very pithy quotes and i love this one so his quote was he he wrote it yesterday he said it's a race between technology driven abundance and government driven poverty now when i read this i was that it's quite it's it's quite a snark really i was thinking he's basically said what i how i read this is we either let the technologists work their magic the elons and you know move fast break things and pollute a bit kill a few people it's okay we're going to move fast and break things and i don't mean i don't mean any of that i'm being a bit obnoxious or government is gonna restrict regulate control and make stupid decisions and if you've ever watched any technologist in front of congress in the states it's just embarrassing the questions that they get asked about the internet or mobile or software or ai so i think that's how i read it is like we either let the technologists get on with it and we're going to break some eggs or government is going to destroy our prosperity that's how i read it and it's quite a punch but um yeah listen have a ponder i mean mads did this mean anything to you did you take anything away from this or do you think it's just fun to drivel it sounds like silicon valley libertarian drivel to me.
33:06I mean, so much of the wealth we have in the world is a partnership between government and private forces. And we are best when we can partner. There would be no internet without government investment. So many of the foundational technologies we have come out of government programs. And government can both be the solution and the problem. So it's about smart government and about smart businesses, right? So, you know, what frustrates me endlessly is when government and business fights, that's just not what we need. We need folks to work together. It's clear that government won't be able to solve all these things.
33:45Government needs to work with business to solve all the biggest challenges, to empower business, to work with the founders, the entrepreneurs, the makers, and to bring them into the tent rather than, you know castigating them as i don't know whatever kind of you have this this fight between folks that are capitalists or in government or whatever it's just it's all nonsense to me we need to work together the biggest challenges we can only solve with with government help and support and partnership and and that's i think what we should try and aim for i think one any closing thoughts well just thinking about kind of maybe the most relevant one here will be ai regulation so So I'm actually quite skeptical of AI regulation.
34:27I'm not quite sure how it is going to be regulated. And I think anything that they do implement or propose is probably going to prevent innovation. So that might be the most relevant point here. I think to Matt's point, everything else, it's a good and a bad. But I'd be interested to get your thoughts on AI regulation, especially in Europe. I know OpenAI is launching an office in France, but what does that mean? And do they not care? Are they just going to go ahead and really build open AI here in Europe? So, yeah. Yeah, I think you are right. I think there are lots of very valid questions around how can we regulate AI.
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35:08I'm a bit concerned that that's where we're going. I don't think what we need right now is kind of heavy-handed regulation. I think we need understanding. We need a rapid leveling up of government. Because again, back to if AI is going to become as powerful as we all think it will be, it's clear to me that we need some kind of regulation. We need some kind of involvement from the government side. But what should it look like? I don't think we really know yet. So from my perspective, it's about involvement. It's about engagement. It's about creating some of these partnerships where government isn't necessarily putting down a million kind of paragraphs.
35:48and say, here are all the things you're not allowed to do that will prevent innovation, but actually engaging, understanding, researching, figuring out, making sure we're at the forefront, stimulating. We saw how the new labor government, they canceled the large AI cluster in Edinburgh. That big investment, that's the opposite of what we need. We need to invest. We need to be part of. We need to be engaged. We need to talk to each other. And then I think the regulation, I don't know, once we understand better what the parameters are and where the risks will be, I think that's when you can start to think about regulation.
36:22I think for now, you just need engagement. Yeah, I'm with you. I think my only kind of added caveat to this is we need investment. We need to absolutely balance all of the regulatory, you know, Duma conversations with much more investment and much more activity and then let the two balance out. Guys and girls, thank you so much. That is the end of this week. It has been Friday the 20th of September. Thank you for joining us and see you next week. Thanks. Bye. Thank you very much. Here's a few words from our beloved sponsor. How to Web Conference is the leading startup and technology conference in Eastern Europe.
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From the publisher
Go to eu.vc to read the core take-aways.
Chapters:
00:05 Today's Agenda
02:18 Monique's Background and PACT Ventures
03:14 AI Startup 11X Moves to the US
03:48 Challenges for European Startups
07:44 Interest Rate Cuts in the US
09:56 Impact of US Economic Policies on Europe
10:56 UK's Economic Challenges and Labor's Plan
12:10 Government's Role in Supporting Startups
15:47 Germany's Investment in Startups
20:01 EU's First Commissioner for Startups
21:04 Addressing Fragmentation in the EU Market
26:47 Proxies for Economic Health
28:41 Opportunities in Economic Downturns
29:56 The Role of AI in Business
34:18 Balancing Technology and Regulation
35:13 Closing Thoughts on AI Regulation
36:44 Conclusion and Farewell




