E411 | This Week in European Tech with Dan Bowyer, Mads Jensen, and Lomax Ward

10 Feb 2025 · 1 h 2 min

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Podcast Summary: EUVC - E411 | This Week in European Tech

Overview Podcast Title: EUVC Episode Title: E411 | This Week in European Tech Hosts: Andreas Munk Holm, David Cruz e Silva Guests: Dan Bowyer, Mads Jensen, Lomax Ward Release Date: February 9, 2023 Description: The episode discusses recent developments in the European tech landscape, touching on various topics from earnings reports to political events impacting tech.

Key Themes and Discussions

  1. Current Landscape in European Tech
  2. The hosts engage in light banter about the weather and recent experiences, setting a casual tone before diving into serious topics.
  3. Highlighting the significance of the week in tech, they address recent earnings reports from notable tech companies and developments in government policies affecting the industry.
  1. Earnings Reports Overview
  2. Palantir: Positive earnings report leading to a stock surge of 24%, showcasing its strong performance.
  3. Google: Reported 30% growth in cloud services, but fell short of market expectations (35%), resulting in a 7% drop in stock value and raising concerns over future growth amidst increased capital expenditures.
  4. AMD: Reported a 7% drop in stock after missing data center revenue expectations, raising doubts about its ability to compete with NVIDIA.
  5. Arm Holdings: Achieved a 19% revenue growth but faced a slightly downgraded four-year forecast. Discussion on the importance of Arm in the UK and European tech sectors.
  1. Positive European Developments
  2. European Stocks: January saw the second-highest inflows into European stocks in 25 years, with a notable outperformance compared to US stocks.
  3. Cherry Ventures: Completed a £500 million fundraise, highlighting a growing appetite for venture capital amidst an uncertain fundraising environment.
  1. Political Climate Impacting Tech
  2. German Elections: Discussion on the rise of the far-right AFD party and its potential effects on the tech sector, particularly concerning immigration policies that are crucial for attracting talent.
  3. UK Nuclear Policy: Announcement of plans to expand nuclear energy in the UK, linking it to future technology demands, especially for AI systems.
  1. Government and AI Initiatives
  2. AI Plans: Mads Jensen shares insights from a recent meeting at Number 10 Downing Street, emphasizing the UK government’s commitment to becoming a global leader in AI. The adoption of a 50-point plan for AI development was discussed, highlighting the importance of venture capital and talent in the successful implementation of this initiative.
  1. Sovereign Wealth Funds and Investment Strategies
  2. Discussion about Trump's initiative to create a sovereign wealth fund and how European models (like Norway's) could inform similar efforts. Key considerations around governance, transparency, and the potential for corruption were raised.

Key Takeaways

  • European Tech Resilience: The European VC landscape is maturing with significant fundraises and stronger performances from local tech companies.
  • Political Landscape: Upcoming elections and shifting policies can have profound effects on tech ecosystems, particularly immigration and investment in technology.
  • AI as a Growth Driver: The UK is positioning itself to leverage AI as a key driver of economic growth, but must address challenges related to talent and funding.
  • Investment Opportunities: The conversation highlighted ongoing investment opportunities in health tech and space industries within Europe, reflecting a robust venture capital environment.

Conclusion The episode encapsulates a dynamic week in European tech, marked by significant earnings, political developments, and ambitious government initiatives aimed at fostering innovation. The discussions underscore the evolving landscape of European venture capital and the importance of strategic planning in navigating future challenges.

For more insights and to stay updated on European VC, visit [eu.vc](https://eu.vc).

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Transcript

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0:00Well, what is up, my brethren? It is the week ending. What is it going to be? The 9th of Feb. It's upside. I'm with Lomax Ward. I'm with Mads Jensen.

0:14Tear down this wall. It's more than just an ally. This is a union of values. Let's start acting. This show is not investment advice and the hosts of this episode may be invested in the funds and companies featured. Gentlemen, Lomax, what's cooking with you? What's new? What's the good? What's the bad? What's the ugly? All good. The sun is out in Lisbon. We've had a bit of rain in January. Can you send some? I know. Wow, yeah. No, I want to keep it here. All is good, man. Although, you just went and got another jacket on. You just went and put a jacket on. I did, but I took it off again pretty quickly because I realized I was too hot.

0:57I mean, I'm enjoying the, you know, I've got my popcorn out and I'm enjoying what's going on, you know, in the White House at the moment. You know, back and forth, up and down, you know, yin and yang, in and out. Otherwise, yeah, good week. Some good news this week, which we're going to talk about. Yeah, we are. We are. Mads, what's cooking in your world? Listen, sky is blue in London. I don't know what people are talking about. It's been a beautiful day. It's been a really interesting week. Lots of interesting announcements out at number 10 that we're going to talk about. lots of stuff happening around AI.

1:28Yeah, and you were in number 10. Don't be coy. You were in there with Keir shaking, pressing palms. And talking to people. And yeah, I think we'll unpack it in a bit, but I think there's some really interesting things happening. So, yeah. Have we got a photo of you at number 10, Mads, or not? Have we got a photo? Of course I do. Haven't seen it on LinkedIn yet. You're stealing anything from the toilet. I haven't seen it on LinkedIn yet, you know. Yeah, no, Mads isn't as cheese ball as me. I'd be right in there doing selfies in the loo um right we've got we've got a really really really packed um sesh today we're going to talk a little bit across the pond looking at some earnings reports we're looking at cherry we've got german election stuff we've got some number 10s some uk government stuff which is super interesting and mads i want you to dig into that um having just been there um we've got trump starting a sovereign wealth fund have a look at what's happening in europe especially in norway success over there so we've got loads and loads of the docket we're going to start right at the top.

2:25Mads, what's happening? Give us a quick reflection on what's happening in this earning season for tech stocks in the US. Give us the quick rundown without digging in too much, because obviously it's American, not European. Yeah, no, true. It's a little bit of a European angle as well. I think it's been, what are some of the bigger news? So Palantir, they've came out with a very, very bullish, very upbeat announcement, sort of almost saying, We got Elon in there. We got Doge. We're going to reform government. We got Teal pulling the strings of all the puppets. And because of that, we are just incredibly bullish.

3:00Basically, we are going to run all these government services. The stock shut up 24 % here after that announcement, having already had an incredible run over the last year. So Palantir is firing on all cylinders, not so much Google. Google's cloud business grew 30%. The market had expected 35%. Stock was down 7 % immediately. They are outlooking$75 billion of CapEx. Market has expected 60%. So there's some questions around, are they going to be able to turn that into growth? And if the company is growing less than we expect, but they're spending more in CapEx than we expect, is Google really as good a business as we were all hoping?

3:45So there are some of those concerns. big, big shift in terms of vibes. I don't know if you recall a couple of years ago, Google was all about, we're not going to use any of our AI powers for weapons or defense. Well, all of that is taking a change now. That sort of part of the mission statement has been struck, as has some of this talk around DEI, where Google is saying, look, we're probably not going to focus as much on that as we have been known to do in the past. So it's all changed over Google. on the whole DEI, wasn't he? I mean, I remember he pulled the video and reneged on what he said pretty quickly, but he was quite a poke in the eye about DEI incentives over there.

4:29Well, yeah, I think there was also working from home, right? Where he sort of suggested that people had been too busy working from home to actually gain the lead in AI. AMD missed on data center revenue. Why is that important? because they are probably one of the main companies that could challenge NVIDIA. A company was down 7 % after hours. It's not yet DeepSeek related. DeepSeek has really only been released now. But there is an overall nervousness in the market now about whether these semiconductor manufacturers can keep up the good stuff and keep delivering these incredible earnings runs we have seen.

5:07So none of these figures are going to include the potential deep seek shockwave. Is that fair? Is that true? None of these figures? Well, not on revenue, but in terms of the sentiment is what I'm going to say. There is some overall nervousness in the market. Arm, if we were going to have a bit of a UK slash euro angle, Q3 revenue up 19%, but they've slightly downgraded four-year forecast and the stock was down never so slightly today. It's important to remember with Arm, There's only 10 % free float. Master still owns 90 % over at SoftBank. We're going to talk more about Arm later in the show, some exciting news about stuff they're doing together with SoftBank that I actually think could transform the company a little bit, but we'll touch more on that.

5:56Lowell, Max, you had some other ones on the earnings firm? Well, let's not forget, let's not forget, when it comes to earnings of public tech companies, we have some public tech companies in Europe. Do we? In Europe? Yeah, I don't. Shock horror. sure no no not not i mean you know not all of them are listed in europe but we do have some listed tech stock here you actually need to take a bit of time to think about it and look for them but you know asml a dutch company that manufactures the very very important machines that are used in semiconductor manufacturing have a quasi monopoly 90 95 of the market they publish from great results nine billion of sales for the quarter um and seven billion of bookings which is a great indicator of future business and that was double what the analysts predicted now if anything they operate on a massive lag to for example the deep seat news as a you know very far down um down the supply chain in the semiconductor um sector but really robust so that's a really strong strong european company um spotify up five percent mau uh monthly active users up last year nearly 700 million strong revenue growth up up 20 so good good news for europe go and i think looking at the big picture in january european stocks had the second highest inflows for 25 years and ring if you got a bell down i don't know the european i'm ringing it right now you just can't Yeah, ring it now, but drumroll.

7:32European stocks outperformed the US stocks in January. Largely driven by the deep sea crash at the end. But, I mean, guys, come on. We can all be morose and lugubrious in Europe, but not always. It's not all doom and gloom. We'll take it. I just don't think we shout as much about it. That's great. We'll take it, even if it was on a slight technicality, but we'll take it. I'll take it anyway. So some more good news in Europe. So Cherry Ventures have just closed their£500 million raise. It's Cherry 5. So it's$500 million. It's Cherry 5. So they've got a two-pronged strategy with this$500 million, which is part early stage and then backing their own winners post B into growth.

8:15So they're a Berlin London Stockholm outfit. The operator-led VC Cherry Ventures. Very, very cool. I think they were... Where do the founders come from, Lomax? You know them, don't you? the founders of cherry i wish i knew them i've done i've done a deal with that with them but not not that well no it was a lander anyway so they've raised so this is on your docket was there anything else that you wanted to to kind of chat about apart from this great european vc fundraise which is obviously we must shout from the from the rooftops about was there anything else you wanted to dig into uh i wanted to say well first of all you know we're for five weeks into the year now and this is great to see a big you know big sizable funds and being announced in europe despite some of the challenges in the fundraising environment.

8:58I would also like to say that last year we saw inflows, big fundraisers to the established funds in Europe, you know, Boldertons, Index, Tomico, I mean, Tomico and Accel. Those funds - And this is mirroring the state, isn't it? This bifurcation is mirroring what's been happening over the pond as well, isn't it? So all the big guys are getting all the dollars. Exactly. They hoover up people, flight to quality, or flight to safety, or relative safety etc now i think like what we're having in europe now as the ecosystem you know if you look at the us you've got you know you've got the established big platform funds you've got at least 20 30 40 that you almost put into that category right and actually in in europe now as the as the as the industry matures you now have funds like cherry like local globe starting to move forwards to start to challenge or join those kind of funds at the top of their at the top of the ranking so i feel like this is only a good thing for europe you know you have like you start off with your 50 mil 75 mil 100 mil seed funds largely backed by government you know goes through the fundraisers fund two fund three fund four you know cherry these are big amounts of money and they're going to start to knock on the door of the bigger funds which can only be a good thing it gives more options to founders and gives more options for us when we think about you know along with our founders who would be the right funds to partner to partner with on on the next stage of the journey so i'm i think it's great to see yeah yeah the thing i think it's worth worth mentioning is they're quite a young firm so i think it's only 2012 when it all started so it's whatever 12 13 years old well i mean and also to be honest that you know i i would you know there's you look at some funds that you know are probably on a similar trajectory right in my mind and you know you guys agree or disagree but i would say you know you've got local globe you've got blossom which is a much younger firm you've probably put in you know you've got 20 vc you know raising similar amounts of money even even even younger you know so i feel like that those kind of firms are on a great trajectory and are only good for both you know showing that there is appetite for european venture but also offering founders more options and um generally just um you know creating more smart investors in in europe and also don't forget you know they probably don't want to think about it now but you'll also have like you have in in the us you'll have gps spinning out of these funds in the next four or five years setting up their own funds right and that's that that's how these ecosystems grow so um i think it's great yeah i mean you will like you have founder mafias soon hopefully in europe we'll have gp mafias vc mafias Yeah, I mean, we've already had it.

11:42You know, Matias spinning out of Atomaco with Moonfire. So I feel like it is happening, but it's going to happen more and more and more. We just need more, right? I mean, I think people still don't appreciate that the European venture, last time I looked, was growing four times faster than the States. So we still need, we just need more. We need more doing more, I think, is a fair general push. So listen, another one of yours, Lomax. We're going to stay in Europe, in continental Europe, in Germany. A quick election update. What's on your mind with this? Well, I think it's just a reminder that, you know, the biggest economy in the Eurozone is having a, you know, a pretty, pretty pivotal election in the next three weeks.

12:19What does that mean for tech? I mean, no expert on the German, on German politics. But I think if you look at, you know, the AFD, the Alternative for Deutschland, far right, anti-immigrant party is now second in the polls. We talked about them last week, 20 % now. the incumbent you know historic incumbent the party of Angela Merkel or Olaf Scholz is is um is is struggling in comparison so I feel like this is a a pivotal kind of moment um we've had strong men and populist leaders in um the some smaller economies within Europe I mean I know one's suggesting that AFD will be you know taking full power in Germany right the leading party is at 30 in the polls above their 20 but you saw a very interesting development i think in germany last week where for the first time i think ever a motion was passed in in the reichstag or a motion was passed in the german parliament which was carried by the afd and i think that's very you know angela murfeld came out of retirement to strongly critique this and effectively saying that this is a very, very bad sign.

13:30What does it mean for tech? I mean, I don't think any of these parties are particularly anti-tech. If anything, they're keen to invest in security, technological sovereignty. The immigration policy is slightly what worries me because the AFD is, Adam, this was the mainstream party leading this motion to close the borders and make immigration a lot harder. And we all know that actually to have a vibrant tech economy and ecosystem you need to have a very sensible um open immigration policy to make sure you're attracting international talent to come and build companies so that's the only that's the only real kind of takeaway i had from from looking at the german election this week i was geeking out a little bit on some of the on some of the policies i was looking at the afd and there there there are across the christian unions the afd the spd that kind of that that probable set coalition that's going to come into power, they are talking a lot of the similar topics.

14:31They're talking about deregulation, tax incentives, buying German. So there are lots of what I would argue are going to be quite friendly for VCs, for investment, for tax incentivized investment. They're making the noises. What is rhetoric? What is noise? And what is actual policy? What are they trying to buy votes with and what actually will they do? Who knows? but it feels like there is a common language of investment, a bit like here with Reeves and Stalin. We're talking about investment. Let's see what they actually do. Mads, you got any thoughts on what's happening in Germany? Look, when the centrist parties, they don't deliver, it paves the way for populism.

15:13And, you know, the AFD, like them, love them. It's not their fault that the German economy hasn't been performing. it's kind of it's very easy to to to to sort of say look it's these french players they're not in power the centrists we are in power if you will right and and and so you know merkel had a certain strategy that i think many people were supporting at the time or were impressed by but in retrospect actually probably wasn't the best for germany kind of the coasting up to russia the reliance on Russian gas, some of the immigration policies that I think are leading to some of the tension you have right now.

15:54Listen, I'm a liberal. Notionally, I would love to have open borders for all of us just to get along and trade and peace. And it's all wonderful. I think some of the stuff that we've seen just doesn't quite work. If you go to Sweden, they've had some experiments around this stuff. And it's not pretty. Several of the countries are sort of, you know, folks are pushing a bit the other way. And so I think to some extent, us centrists, we probably have been not quite delivering what we should. And so folks are upset and the populists are charging in. And we can't really blame them. I think we really only have ourselves to blame.

16:29Back to what do we do about it? Well, we've got to deliver growth. We've got to deliver the stuff people need, growth, security, all the things people expect of their countries. And so how do we do that? I think that's really the bigger discussion and not who's the bogeyman and how can we vilify them. It's for us to deliver. I think that's the most important thing we can do. Yeah, well, the trees are definitely being shaken and Trump being the biggest tree shaker of them all. So if nothing else, my sense is this period of time in this populist push is going to create some change and shake the trees and do some new things.

17:07Good and bad, obviously, but hopefully we'll get some reform out the back of it. So coming back to the UK, and obviously Germany, part of their problem was shutting off all their nuclear to then rely on Russian and gas and Russian energy. But that's not the case in the UK. I was reading from Matt Clifford today that we're going to get more nuclear. So the UK government is enabling developers to put in planning, which will be accelerated. And we're looking at becoming a nuclear country again. And they're going to push it through. So Mads, do you want to kick this topic off? I think it's an incredibly exciting announcement.

17:50The UK, believe it or not, it's sometimes hard to sort of remember that we've been first with a lot of things. But the UK was the first country in the world to build a nuclear reactor. in 1956. And then the last reactor was built in 1995. So nothing new for 30 years. We've been trying to construct this new Hinkley Point C. It's been under construction for years, years of delays. The environmental assessment alone to get the planning permission is a 30 ,000 page report. We just don't understand that, what are you going to fill in all those pages? But obviously that's the stuff that takes time. There are issues around whenever somebody gets a planning permit for anything, let alone a nuclear power plant, you have multiple legal challenges you can mount against slowing things down.

18:40And while we've been busy slowing things down, China is hard at work constructing almost 30 new nuclear reactors. Elsewhere in Europe, 12 new nuclear reactors at a planning stage. France, obviously a leader there, has been, you know, went nuclear decades ago and It has a much, much better energy mix from that perspective. So four concrete steps are being taken now here in the UK. I think it's great. Many nuclear power stations are being included in the planning rules. So developers can apply to create those. And important, they're scrapping the set list of sites where these can be built. So these are extremely safe new types of reactors.

19:18And of course, this ties straight in with what we're trying to do around AI. Because AI requires a lot of power. and if you build new AI centers, then the idea is you should be able to build new nuclear power plants of these new smaller, ultra-safe variants nearby so you have power to match the load. Finally, I'd say the number 10 is setting up a new nuclear regulatory task force and it's going to report directly to the PM. So sort of, you know, Kihi's saying, I'm serious about this. That's what I'm hearing. He's getting his founder mode. Yeah, I'm serious about this. I want it to happen. And any issues, any blockers, come straight to me.

19:55I'm going to try and help sort it out. So listen, we haven't built anything yet, right? The announcement was today. But I think this is the kind of leadership we need to see. I hope the thing they follow up with now are some quick announcements of deals being done. And I think this is maybe where we can learn a little bit from what happens across the pond, where government is very active in engaging directly with contractors, developers, people with projects to say, let's go do this thing, as was done with Stargate. Instead of waiting for folks to come around and sort of having this protracted period of cat and mouse, we don't have time to wait.

20:37We need to move fast. So I hope government will be very proactive in engaging with the developers directly. Yeah, wonderful. Lomax, what's your thoughts on this Well, first of all, it's great that the government are on top of this. And one of the challenges with clean energy is that it's intermittent. We know this, which then gives you issues with batteries and the complexity around that and the infrastructure needed for that. So to have a clean... Where are we at? I think last time I read, we're about 25 % in the UK, 25 % renewables on average? Yeah, on some days it's been a well over majority.

21:11Depends on how much wind's blowing. you know um that's the problem to have a baseload clean energy supply is an absolute no-brainer and to be able to leverage off these new technologies that are being funded by vcs and built by amazing founders in in europe in particular is is very cool to see just stepping back and i i don't want to pour cold water on the government and their plans and their enthusiasm for things like this but i you're european low max you could give it a try anyway and we can be yeah yeah yeah so i'm gonna do it i think like this is great this is you know it falls a little bit into what we talked about last week about the extra runway he threw like these are long-term projects that we're not gonna see any upside from from a very very very long time right and that is great they're good for sentiment because i think you guys feel great about it on this on this on this um chat and so do i i think it shows that we're kind of investing for the long term but you know this isn't going to be finished for for a very very long time and it's great they were cutting red tape why are you saying that lumax the build the build lead time for these new reactors is quite short i was looking at the nucleo stuff and they're they're looking at five years they've started deployment of one of their reactors now and they're looking to go live in in five years time so is that the kind of time scale that you're talking about or longer well no even then five ten i think even five ten years when you grow set up for planning challenges etc etc you know it's never going to be you know If the provider is saying five years, what does that actually mean in the real world?

22:47And so I think that that's great. But at the same time, the government needs to, you know, listening to a very good political podcast the other day where they were saying one thing the government haven't managed to do is really diagnose what the real problem is with growth in the UK. They haven't come out with a very coherent, this is the problem. This is how we get, this is why. these are the reasons why and this is how we're going to fix it um they seem to be throwing a lot of things at the wall in a relatively haphazard manner while as we talked about last time you know in the short term increasing you know making it harder to do business for small businesses which actually affects people now this year and then you know talking about long-term development projects that um we won't see the benefit from from a very very long time and so that's just It's just an observation.

23:37I don't want to be too negative about it because I think we can only control the future. We can't look backwards. I think it's just important to remember that. I think another point away from politics is the cost of electricity and energy in Europe. I think Mads has talked about this before. is when you step back, if you were introducing a Martian to the world, one of the big questions would be, wow, your price for electricity and energy is off the charts in Europe. It's more than double what it is in the US and significantly more than other countries. And also, Mad said that this could be a big part of many, many companies P &L, a big part of their cost base, in particular for data centers, if you're thinking about technology.

24:25So it's great that we're trying to find ways to bring that down. So I'm very, very happy about that. But this is something that I think we should kind of always be mindful of. The US, for example, has a wealth of natural resources that we just don't have in Europe. And it's been able to actually create its own energy sovereignty in a way that we haven't been able to. and we've become reliant on third parties and it turns out in a relatively nefarious third party. So it's good that we're trying to fix these problems and you can only fix... We have the North Sea, but I think if memory serves, most of that is run by Norway, isn't it?

25:05So, I mean, we do have an also... It was a big part of the Scottish independence campaign, you know, so I don't think it's just... And also on the American energy, I was looking at the kind of oil that... Because I couldn't work out why if America is oil neutral, so they produce as many barrels as they need. I couldn't work out why they were still massive net importers. But it turns out the type of oil that they're creating, mainly by fracking, they can't and then refine. So there's also challenges within the data, within the data, when it looks like, for example, America being quite energy independent.

25:45There are challenges within that in itself. because i know that we are doing a lot with renewables hopefully this nuclear program comes online in the uk and i'm slightly counter to your position on this time scale piece because my sense is that the technologies are evolving and going back to nucleo very quickly they were a london-based startup super european outfit i think run by a couple of italians originally founded by stephano buono who's like a wonderful well exit like founder one of the biggest you know tech companies that exited that you probably never heard of right so yeah one of the europe's like best entrepreneurs and i know they've obviously they've now headquartered into paris for all the obvious reasons because you know france is big on nuclear so i kind of get it makes strategic sense and they've got some big french investors i think including the french government but if you look at what they're building and the technology and i don't know what's true and what's not true don't shoot the messenger but it looks like they're using this new MOX fueling, which is effectively nuclear waste process.

26:48So from the old trad plants, that waste recycled into these lead cooled mini reactors. And it looks like a fully circular system. It looks like just bloody smart, small nuclear reactors. So that's on our doorstep. I mean, so if this technology is here, it's faster than it was. And if the planning bit can be slickened and accelerated, then we might be, you know, I don't want to sound too optimistic, but this might be a really super cool thing. And it won't take 15 or 20 years. I'm happy to be proof of. Me too. No, I'm completely with you. And I think there's a wider point here, which is that we've got to make it legal to develop and do and build and grow and make things happen again.

27:35And I think We became a little bit navel-gazing, and we thought we were so cool and tied ourselves in nuts. We've been talking about Heathrow for two decades, and it's almost sort of this holier-than-thou. If you look at the carbon intensity of the UK today, it is a third of not just the US, but also of Canada and Australia. And yet we're talking about, ah, should we have another runway, and can we afford it? Guys, we are optimizing on this teeny tiny thing to the detriment of our growth and our welfare for the sake of nothing that moves any needle anywhere in the world. If you want to look at the big opportunities to tackle climate change, it's got nothing to do with Heathrow.

28:17But what does have to do with Heathrow and the UK economy is we need to build, we need energy, we need data centers, we need infrastructure and transport. And we need to be proud of supporting the entrepreneurs, the founders, the people that can make that happen. Let's go, guys. Let's go and make it happen. So I think we need some of those animal spirits back. And I think, Dan, to your point, yes, maybe the third runway will only be there in a decade from now or a little bit more. But we've got to get going. And even the project work, the infrastructure, the build, all of that will create economic activity.

28:51So let's go. Let's go. No time to waste. Who also knows? I don't want to get too lost down the rabbit hole, but who also knows what kind of new kinds of fuel there will be by the time these new runways are opened? So it might be, I've seen a lot of new types of fuel generation, all kinds of clever technology. I have no idea how it works. That's a very good point. And that's, you know, SAF sustainable, you know, and I feel like, which is not something I know a lot about, to be honest, but I don't want to be the Mr. Pessimist here, but someone's got to play that role. you know like the staff you're taking that mental no like sustainable aviation fuel could have a major um you know impact on the environmental impact of heat throw to the good but at the same time we know that wide body is not going to be battery powered anytime soon you know for example it may change the way in which um and now i may be now i may be jumping at shadows but it's like it may change the way in which um you know people travel you just don't know i don't you know it's like or it's not necessarily staff but technology may change the way in which people travel and so in a way like the kind of airport you're building now may not be the the airport that is needed in 15 years time i'm not suggesting we're going to have like hypersonic by that time which we're not but my point is it just it may change you know you may not need to change at Heathrow for example because you may have longer range or something i don't know or you may be you know with SAF with sustainable aviation fuel you may be able to run more flights that are less environmentally damaging which means you don't need to stop in Heathrow if the demand is there so I don't know but as lad says maybe maybe I could keep jumping at shadows forever and at some point you need to get on with it so you know maybe maybe I just wave the white flag and mads we get on with it listen we have no choice but to go for it I think is the is the universal opinion I think there's a point that I'm making and we've been through this before but it's just like it's all very well talking about this stuff but i really want first of all i would love to have some coherent strategy behind this whole thing okay number one maybe that's me maybe that's me intellectually asking for too much because it just would be as a sort of small simple-minded person i would like to have a little bit more of a kind of coherent five ten-year plan yeah but no max it's okay to throw some stuff at the wall throwing energy production at the wall is an okay thing to do i think yeah all those kind of get is it is it too much to ask of our government to actually you know in one of the biggest economies in the world to actually come up with a proper like plan that actually does have coherence to it we can certainty business wants certainty i want certainty founders want certainty investors want certainty um and so i you know teeth row wasn't even a thing five weeks ago new i mean you know i guess in our world it was a reinvented thing from over the last 30 years it's you know it's been a broken record you know like nuclear technology has been bubbling away in our world in technology in the last couple of years right with the fundraisings and except we talked about it on this point at the end of last year with nuclear's last fundraise etc but my point is okay maybe i can't have a coherent plan that's fine that's just me i will be on it doesn't matter what i would like sorry though what i would like which i don't think it's an unreasonable ask is to do stuff that has immediate effect this year next year, the year after.

32:14Yeah. We can do these big things, which are great for the long term, are great for sentiment, but we need to be working down here as well. You very elegantly segued me into Mads. You were at number 10 Tuesday this week. So, you know, segue galore. There we are. Yeah, absolutely. We'll talk about the AI plan, which I think has some near term implications. But I mean, on your wider point, Lomax, about the plan, I mean, there was a place in the world that was very, very good at these long-term plans, right? It was the Soviet Union. They made these five-year plans deciding how everything in the economy was going to work.

32:49And I just think we've got something that's far, far more powerful here. We've got capitalism. And I think once you enable capitalism, entrepreneurs, investors to pursue great objectives to create wealth and value in the world, we're going to do the right thing. But you need to unleash it. You can't keep holding it back. You can't tie it up in all this red tape. And so when we say a business needs certainty, I agree. And I think that's going to be the certainty the government is there to back us to get things done, not to hold us back. What I don't think we need is for government to plan where every little power plant needs to be.

33:25No, no, no, no, no. We don't need prescription. You're right. I get it. Yeah, yeah. So it's the certainty that says if you've got a project and it aligns with one of our big objectives, which is more energy, more technology, more growth, government is going to try and do everything it can to help you make it happen. So that's really what we're looking for. And I think, at least in spirit, those are some of the vibes we're getting. Let me flip over to this new AI plan. The work started last year, right after the election. Matt Clifford did some great work pulling together a 50-point plan, specifically on how the UK can become a global leader in AI.

34:07the government has adopted all 50 points of the plan and earlier this week kistama convenes you know a number of founders and investors at number 10 to talk about exactly this and i think there was some really really positive takeaways from the event and from the messaging that's come out of number 10 do you think he will do you think he's going to do it mad you were there whites of the eyes you know in the room feeling the energy do you feel like this is going to happen. He absolutely wants to do it. One thing that's sometimes said about him is that he is a little cautious. And another thing that's said about him is he's quite steely and Machiavellian.

Read the full transcript

34:48And he made no mistake. He said, our ambition is to be the global leader. I want to be a global leader. Of course, it's not a question of the UK overtaking the US and China, but playing in the Super League, in the Premier League of AI nations. It's absolutely where he wants us to be. What he's done is he's taken all 50 recommendations developed by Matt Clifford and that working group. He has underwritten all of them and said, we're going to adopt every single one. All of them have actions. All of them have owners. All of them have timescales. and he's now hired Matt Clifford into number 10 to implement the recommendations and help make them happen.

35:33So it's easy to point fingers and say, we should do more, it should be different, it should be faster. But it's hard to say that he's not taking it seriously. I think he is taking it extremely seriously. Now, some other positives. There are practical steps to build capability and drive adoption in government. What's that about? a specific approach to identify pilot areas and then scale them up. Whenever there is AI that can be adopted by a department, by a civil service, by a part of a government entity, is to find ways to adopt it and push it in there as quickly as possible. There is a big recognition that the government should be a customer.

36:16So there should be courage and encouragement to adopt new technology. I spoke with Peter Carlett some length, you know, who is the Secretary of State for the department that oversees all this, and he is firmly behind it. They want to drive it. They are having regular meetings with all of cabinet to talk about this. So everybody is getting right from the riot act and you've got to get this AI in everywhere. Now, are they going to get it done? It's government, etc. It's easy to sort of be skeptical, and I think it's probably justified to some extent. If I was going to be critical for a minute, I'd say, what are some of the things that may be still missing?

36:57Despite Matt's background in VC, there wasn't very much talk about the role of venture capital in the plan. And if you look at where the funding has come from to drive innovation in the U.S., the VC community has been absolutely central to that. The question for us, I think, is how do we unlock more capital to scale up? They are talking about pension reform. I think you have to tie it very closely with this AI initiative. Without more money, it ain't going to happen. It costs$300 million to develop a unicorn. I would call that maybe$250 billion sterling if you want here. But that's still a lot of money in the context of even some of the bigger funds we saw announced here in the UK last year.

37:42The second thing is talent. We got to talk about the elephant in the room. London used to be the talent magnet for all the best and brightest in Europe. I think we still see some of that, but it has become a lot harder after Brexit. Now, the European Union has offered us something incredible, right? Which is the youth mobility scheme. And, you know, as I said to them, it's all you, A, take the deal. And B, if you increase the threshold, the cutoff now is to say there should be sort of quasi-freedom of movement for people under 30, increase it to 35 and you're practically done. You're going to start mopping up the best talent again.

38:22Folks are going to come to London and establish companies and build and do and be part of this great ecosystem we have here. So I think the talent point is the second thing. And then I'd say the third point that I'd like them to talk more aggressively about is the efficiency drive. Because let's be honest here. Is that where we're going? Is it going to be the Lomax Mads and Dan Doge? Can I be Vivek? We are talking about the challenges we have around investment and can't balance the books, can't do what we need to do with NHS, can't do what we need to do with education. Well, it turns out we've got the biggest efficiency boost, a tech efficiency boost we have ever had in history in the form of AI.

39:08We've got to talk about where we can deliver that efficiency. So where are we going to see the efficiency in NHS? Where are we going to see the efficiency in the other parts of civil service? What's it going to mean in headcount terms? It doesn't mean that we necessarily get rid of all the people, but there must be places where we can implement and drive efficiency to free up resources elsewhere. And without that side of the equation, I feel we're a little bit deluding ourselves. We've got to have the courage to do that. I have a slight concern that Labour being Labour is worried about the unions and aren't going to take on some of these tough conversations that I think are needed for us to protect the quality of service that we need to and want to deliver to citizens.

39:54So that was the third point. But I would say overall, I am I'm actually very encouraged by by what I've seen. Good. It's great that you went and it's great that you've got kind of first first party insight into how this is fitting together. And I hope it will come as a pass. Lomax, anything else to add on this one? No, I couldn't agree more with Mads on the immigration side, like making it easier for young people to come here and set up companies. The only thing I can see as an impediment to that, and I think this is what stopped the Labour government doing this earlier in their term, is they're worried that that will kind of feed, will be a sort of simple thing for the Farage and Co.

40:32to slap down very, very easily and pick up as a football. They're very, very worried about that, I think. Yes, I agree with you. Here's the counter. reform is already ahead of labor in the polls. They have three years to make a difference. Yeah. And if we don't get growth back, if we don't get all of the stuff working, guess what? There ain't going to be a second term. You've got to be super aggressive. I fully agree with you, Matt. I mean, it's time they show strong leadership on this, but I'm saying like politically, it's a very hard thing for them to do because they're paranoid about seeing as if they are unwinding Brexit politically, even though we all know here that it would be, we need to do this if we want all the unicorns to be built in this country.

41:20I'm just making that observation. Absolutely. They're going to have to come out. I mean, we've talked, you know, I think we've talked here is like the infrastructure projects, grey, et cetera, et cetera, but it's the softer things like immigration that are attracting talent that really moved the needle in the short term but there was some talk of an australian style point scheme i remember about maybe five ten years ago did is that that feels like a very sensible approach i don't know if that's well i think i think i will actually i think that what mads is talking about which is the enabling free movement of people for people under the age of 30 although increasing it to 35 would be would be very powerful it's the simple it's a simpler thing to do but yeah otherwise you fall back on skills based there was um another another uk kind of thought article challenge this week was around the uk being an incubator within the context of startups for other countries namely the us so lots of startups start up here and then shift over to the us to sell to raise to exit and i've always thought this was a a massive thing Everybody was doing it.

42:33Every startup wants to go to the US. It's the land of sunshine and glory. This must be happening across the board. So I dug into a couple of reports that I found, and I'm not going to go through all the detail because being very academic reports, they were extremely detailed. But there were two reports. One was by Yuan Shia, Olaf Sorensen and David Wagaspak, which was called, if you want to look it up, it's called The New Argonauts, the International Migration of Venture-Backed companies. The other one was called Venture Capital and the International Relocation of Startups by Weck, I'm going to get her name wrong, Efflinger and Brown.

43:11Now, the latter one, this Venture Capital and the International Relocation of Startups is the later reported, September 2024. And it's a bigger data set. The first one I mentioned was only just over a thousand startups looked at or venture backed startups. This data set is bigger. It's 11 ,000. And it looks like it's a lot less activity than I thought. There are a lot fewer startups moving from territory to territory. It is not this big swathe of everybody, you know, shifting country, mainly Europe to the States. However, 85 % of those that do migrate to the US, as a subset of that, I thought they would all go to the Bay, but only about 40 % actually go over to San Francisco.

43:51So I thought that would be the natural hunting ground. And the main thread or the main key to this is where are the investors? I thought it would be where are the clients, but the main thread across both reports has been follow the investors. And if it's an American investor investing in your early stage round, then you follow them back to the US. So I don't know who wants to start here. Mads, can I ask you to kick off with your thoughts? Yeah, sure. Look, in tech, there are really two big economies in the world, and that's the US and that's China. You could argue the rest are incubator economies to some extent if you want to.

44:28I think some of this came out of this report that was published by the House of Lords, which I thought it was well-meaning, but also a bit confused, perhaps. I think the truth is Europe could be a third major hub for tech, but we need to work together because, with all due respect, the UK, as fantastic and amazing places it is, does not have the size or clout that China does or that the US does. So we need to work together. If we work together around talent, capital, market access, we can be that. And if we don't, we are going to be a satellite and talent is going to migrate. I don't think the UK needs to choose between the EU and the US.

45:13I've always thought we have this incredible place of being able to have, you know, kind of maybe the foot we have on the European side is slightly bigger, but certainly also with incredibly strong links to the US. You know, I've lived in London and ran a company in New York and the States and flew back and forth. And I've always loved sort of that bridging role we can play. I think that's so important. I mean, we primarily invest in software, which is not like a territory landlocked thing. I mean, you can build wherever and sell wherever, which is happening every day. Yes, yes, exactly that. So I think, you know, collaboration and pragmatism.

45:48And we know that there are some of that on the ground level, there are some of the restrictions around how venture capital firm can operate, some of the new barriers that have been thrown up after Brexit in terms of companies moving, in terms of investors moving. Some of that stuff has become harder. And we know this. We need to make it easier again. I mean, what we cannot afford is to erect barriers to doing business. The world is far too competitive right now. So do you think that we are on balance? Do you think that we are an incubator for the US? Yes, of course. And I think the whole world is.

46:21I don't think that's specific to the UK. But I think if you look at, there's a reason we talk about the Mac 7, right? There's a reason we look at these big businesses and we can see how they hoover up all the innovation everywhere. And if we want to change that, we need to build big champions in Europe and then they can buy all these companies. But I think there's like having, I feel like the House of Lords report was a little bit strange to me. it's like well i mean first of all like don't we already know this isn't it obvious and also like why is it not necessarily why is it so bad but look at the size of the economies like and look at the size of the technology sectors and i mean it's not it's not the both the biggest surprise it's not necessarily the end of the world um i would rather say i would rather know realistically where we stand in the world and create a reasonable objective based on that rather than you know back to your plan well no i exactly i love a good plan rather than you know sort of out of like nationalist nick sort of jingoism um driving some sentiment that we always need to be the best in the world and then you know constantly being disappointed about it um what i would say just on on the reports that you dug out which looked like fascinating reading um dan is um the absolute number of startups moving to the u.s might be small but actually i think if you looked into the kind of equity value or the amounts raised by those companies you probably see a bit of a power law where the few ones that actually have raised the most amount of money are moving to the states because you know actually the the slightly laggard slower ones that you know don't have the traction can't raise the money obviously by definition aren't moving to the state so i'm sure there's some like that's a hypothesis but behind the data no that you're those that move raise more yeah it's three it's a three x up and one thing i think we have we haven't talked about is mna which is that you know this is where i think europe has sold itself cheaply in the past yeah and there's a few examples of this in the last 10 15 20 years that we can use and you know in quite fundamental technologies so illumina is the big sequencing company has 90 market share you know a lot of the technology that underpins illumina's offering came from an acquisition of a cambridge-based company called selexa that it did i think in 2005 or six i can't remember when so you've actually got a company that during the the bull market illumina got to an 80 90 billion market cap right a lot of the tech core technology that gave that company a monopolistic position came out of the university of cambridge exact sciences acquired base genomics an oxford company for 410 million as a c-stage startup two years ago um you know there's a lot of examples i mean magic pony this company that came out of you know matt clifford's accelerator um entrepreneur first was was bought by twitter for meta sorry wasn't it or twitter twitter for 120 odd million right for team and tech like i feel like we sold ourselves short the europe and then we talk about arm arm you know was acquired by what by softbank you know we kind of okay you know it got to a big a much bigger size of company but actually you have these big core infrastructure companies or technologies that are actually being sold um i would say too soon before for example european shareholders pension pension funds etc can really benefit from them.

50:02And I think that's something that maybe ARM is fine. It kind of grew to a reasonable size stage before being acquired. But you take the Selexa example, you take the Basinomics example. Do you remember the context? Remind me the context, Mads. The ARM acquisition happened the week after Brexit. Yeah. Because Sterling tanked and SoftBank said, well, gosh, this is a lovely company here. it's just become 25 % cheaper, 30 % cheaper. Let's pick it up. Another checkmark in the annals of Brexit. But the point is that there are technologies that we have sold too cheaply, core technologies coming out of European universities.

50:44And that's something that I think could, because there is now the funding for that, to build those companies. That's it. That's it. If you're a founder, you're building a company, big US tech conglomerate comes along and says, listen, here's one, two, three,$400 billion. that you want to sell. Well, the question is, what's the alternative? And what we have lacked are big European funds that can say, well, actually, do you know what? Here's another 50, here's another 100 million. Keep building. Here's the funding for you to grow and build this global behemoth. And if that isn't there, of course you're going to take the money if the alternative is an uncertain future and lack of funding.

51:18So I think you're absolutely right. And this is, Dan, back to your point, European venture, still younger. We are growing up. We are seeing more of these companies at scale. And that's what we need to keep funding the best businesses to really go all the way. Because I agree that that's what we want and need. We know how to do it, right? This not 20 years ago, we know how the system works. We've been to the circus. We've been on the rides. We can build and we've done it. And there are more of us doing it and there's more money coming through. So it's not, there's almost no excuse. How many founders in Europe would have had the, you know, would have done what Zup did when he turned down the billion dollar offer that he had for Facebook in the early days, right?

51:59Now, it's not just about, you can talk about personality and all that stuff, but it's also around optionality. Zuck had optionality. He could go out and, you know, execute and raise money and grow, which, you know, in a way, in Europe in the past, we haven't had that optionality. I think we haven't, you know, founders still haven't got that in full, but they certainly have more optionality now than they did to make such, you know, to make such decisions. Going back to the States very quickly before we kind of close off on Deal of the Week and looking at some specific startups. So Trump, one of his initiatives was starting a sovereign wealth fund.

52:34I have no idea how you do this when you have whatever 36 trillion of debt, but parking that for a second. Trump wants to start a sovereign wealth fund. We in the UK have a national wealth fund. Norway has, I always forget what the Norway one is called. It's called the Government Pension Fund Global, GPFG, which I think is the largest in the world. It's got 1.5 trillion assets under management, obviously started by oil and gas in Norway. But it's an extremely powerful success story as to how sovereign wealth can work. So Trump wants to start one. He's tasked, who is he tasked? Scott Besson and Howard Lutnick with developing a plan within 90 days.

53:17a very quick plan, maybe to buy TikTok, who knows? They're looking to leverage some of the tariff revenue. If you look at, even if it's a 10 % global tariff, there'll be 400 billion annually coming in. They've got government assets of around 6 trillion. So they're trying to use those to revenue streams, if you like, or asset bases to create their sovereign wealth. So are there any lessons here for Europe? Can we follow Norway's success? Is the National Wealth fund fit for purpose low max have you got any thoughts on on on europe or the uk doing something akin no i'm pretending normally to run a sovereign wealth sign you you know tends not to be running at running at a surplus so um yeah you know not many not not many economies can can say that um or have the benefit of that you know norway clearly had a very unique position with its oil or reserves and singapore has been an amazing success story with a you know two trillion dollar gic which actually i was reading is the the biggest investor in european startups of all sovereign wealth funds is gic actually um one of the biggest sovereign wealth funds in the world so um i don't have a particularly strong opinion on it and not something i'm an expert on but you know i'm sure governments would love to be in a position to have the surplus to do this um you know let's not forget this is not the only way that you can invest you know the governments can invest you know at least within the budgets that they have they're doing a tremendous amount of investment right in their own economies normally i mean they have international you know they have international development spending which i think the target was i think 1.3 percent well obviously trump's ripped that up now by by taking out the usa id i say but this concept sort of is all regardless of whether you kind of create a shiny office and put sovereign welfare and above the door this this kind of is already happening in practice but of course i'm sure nations would love to do this and they've spent wisely you do slightly worry with these funds are they a little bit thinking of the palantir discussion we had earlier you know is it a way for you know incumbents to reward cronies is it does it create another avenue for for corruption because you know let's not forget the uk the us despite you know thinking that everywhere's whiting the whites it's you know on the corruption indices it's probably worse than you think so i don't know and no strong view other than more money investing in infrastructure and technology projects is good.

55:46Yeah, I'm with you. I'm kind of with the mind that almost as long as it's fairly legal and fairly moral, kind of just invest. Mads, you got any thoughts on this? Yes. There are two sides to a balance sheet. Clearly, Western governments have lots of liabilities, lots of debts. There are also assets. And I think it's a valuable thing to think as a business and think about these assets in a creative way. Trump's looked at TikTok and sort of said, look, that's actually quite a valuable asset here. We can close it, but maybe we should see if we can do a deal where we keep the asset alive and maybe the US taxpayer gets to benefit from some of it.

56:30Maybe that's not such a bad idea. It's such a dumb idea. We know that we have the National Infrastructure Fund here in the UK. We've got the British Business Bank. Lots of assets. Some of them are actually really good. And if we think about what's happening right now with artificial intelligence, and if we think about how important the government's role is in driving this, does it make sense for the government, for us as taxpayers, to have stake in the upside of some of that wealth creation? It probably does to some extent. Now, there are challenges to it, and some of it is the potential politicization, where is money just going to go, as you say, to cronies?

57:08Is there going to be corruption? Are you going to have too much coziness? And I think this is the tension one would have to manage. I think in a new AI world where AI becomes as central as it is, I think it probably does make sense for governments to try and find ways to not just be a customer, but also to some extent to benefit from some of the upside that's being created in a smart way. But you have to manage the risks very carefully. You have to have professionals involved. You have to have, you know, transparency. You have to have all these things at arm's length. So I think it's a really interesting development that I know something I would dismiss out of hand.

57:48No, I think that's fair. To close off, before I let you lovely humans go, we've got a number of European deals of the week. Lomax do you want to kick off what's been happening on the on the deals of the week well no specific deal of the week for me this week other than like three three really interesting health tech deals you know of like reasonable size um Kostler came in and led the seed of a cancer detection company in the UK called see the signs which is interesting interesting to see Kostler you know they don't drop down to our lowly level um that often um so interesting to see something that made you know binode or whoever whichever partner it was kind of jump off the fence there um gaia raising a um infertility insurance um funding ivf raising a nice series a and then spanish um ai imaging company called cuban raising a big 50 million series a so no long long way to continue it's a you know a good week for for european health tech i'd say we'll take it and and mad's arm is is acquiring empire well that's the rumor we talked a little bit about Arm earlier on, and we've talked about European tech champions.

58:59And Arm is a plus$100 billion company in valuation, but it's not quite a trillion dollar company, certainly yet. And there are lots of questions about whether they will ever get there. But part of what's interesting here is Ampere is basically a company that makes chips. So they use Arm's IP and they make chips for data centers. And by acquiring this company would move on from being just a provider of IP to actually making chips and selling them into hyperscalers that can use them for cloud use, for inference, kind of right in the AI game, could compete with Intel and AMD. And SoftBank clearly has boundless ambition and is willing to put money behind it.

59:45So yes, it is a Cambridge company with a CEO who is American, who is based in the US, who probably has most of their revenue coming out of the US. But I think we'll still sort of take it as a European business. And I think putting money behind arm to go and make some strategic acquisitions to bolster that business, it could be a really exciting move. So yeah, some interesting, interesting things happening there. Nice. Thank you, gentlemen. What's coming up this week ahead? Maz, what's happening for you next week? So I am heading over to my girls' school to talk about entrepreneurship, to talk about entrepreneurship, to talk about what it takes to be a founder and build cool tech companies, something I'm looking forward to.

1:00:34And then I've also got a bunch of board meetings next week, catching up with a lot of our favorite companies. Board, not board, right? Loving it. That's it. We should rename it. Lomax, what are you up to? What's happening with you? We're closing an investment in the space company. We are working on a series, very actually sizable Series B. Might make deal of the week, but if I'm lucky, I don't want to be corrupt here. Run it past you guys, objectively. That's my focus. Working with a portfolio and welcoming a new founder into the outsized family. Nice. I might be heading off to Finland to meet a founding team that is doing very cool diagnostics in pets.

1:01:19So diagnosing cancers in dogs and looking after. So hopefully that will come off. I'm very much looking forward to that if it does. Interesting. Oh, so I was going to say, I thought pet therapies was always a very interesting investment area because you had the huge upside potential. But to get the clinical trials for pet therapies is in pets. It's not in general. it's a fraction of the cost to get drugs into market which you can then use in humans if they pass the trial so I think it's fascinating yeah I know hopefully the meeting will happen I'm very much looking forward to that lovely people love you dearly catch you next week love you bye bye

1:02:04tear down this wall it's more than just an ally this is a union of values, values, values, values. Let's start acting, acting, acting, acting, acting.

From the publisher
Welcome to a new episode of the EUVC podcast, where our good friends Dan Bowyer and Mads Jensen from SuperSeed have a discussion with Lomax Ward, General Partner at Outsized Ventures, to cover recent news and movements in the European tech landscape. 💬

Go to eu.vc for our core learnings and the full video interview 👀

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