In short
EUVC Podcast Episode E414 Summary
Episode Title
This Week in European Tech Hosts: Andreas Munk Holm, David Cruz e Silva Guests: Dan Bowyer, Mads Jensen, Lomax Ward, Andrew J. Scott Date: Week ending February 16
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Episode Overview In this episode, the hosts and their guests discuss recent developments in the European tech landscape, exploring investment trends, European VC challenges, and the implications of recent AI initiatives, especially in the context of government spending and economic outlooks.
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Key Topics Discussed
- European VC Landscape
- Limited European Representation:
- A call with a large LP in Asia revealed that out of 3,000 managers, only three were European-focused.
- There is a perception that Europe is a 'blind spot' for many global investors, with capital often flowing to the US, China, and India instead.
- Investment Trends:
- Most European investments have focused on iterative companies rather than disruptive technologies.
- The speakers emphasize a need for more courage in investing in transformative technologies to foster global competitiveness.
- Dragon Guild Initiative
- Andrew J. Scott and Lomax Ward's Future Endeavor:
- They are launching Dragon Guild to cultivate ambitious investors focused on transformative technologies, aiming to drive economic growth in Europe.
- The initiative aims to address the gap in early-stage investments in next-generation technologies.
- Investment Insights
- Mads Jensen's Investment Update:
- He discusses an investment in an insurtech company that aims to innovate the insurance sector through AI and sensors.
- Feedback from Industry Events:
- Mads shared insights from a talk he gave at BVCA, emphasizing the importance of sharing best practices and learning from both successes and failures in VC.
- AI Summit Reflections
- France AI Summit Discussions:
- A significant gathering where 100 countries participated, but notable non-signatories included the UK and the US.
- Discussions around ethical AI, accessibility, and sustainability highlight the ongoing debates about AI regulation.
- Differing Perspectives on Non-signature:
- The UK's refusal to sign was viewed as a strategic move to align more closely with US interests. However, this raised questions about the impact and significance of such a declaration.
- European Investment Strategies
- EU's €50 Billion Investment Plan:
- There are concerns about whether Europe can attract private capital despite the EU's fiscal injections.
- A combination of the UK’s detailed AI plan and the EU’s capital injection could create a robust framework for AI development.
- Critical Thinking and AI Usage
- Concerns About Diminished Critical Thinking:
- A report from Microsoft and Carnegie Mellon highlighted potential risks of AI making workers less critical in their thinking.
- The necessity for education on effective AI usage is emphasized, suggesting a need for training to harness AI's capabilities fully.
- Economic Outlook and Government Initiatives
- UK Economic Challenges:
- The discussion touches upon stagnant GDP growth and inflation issues.
- Emphasis on the need for the government to adopt a more proactive approach towards innovation, particularly in the AI sector.
- Calls for Action:
- Guests argue for concrete actions and ambitious goals from the government to improve efficiency in public services through AI.
- Recent Developments in Technology
- Updates on AI Models:
- Announcements about upcoming AI models from companies like OpenAI and Elon Musk's plans for Grok 3.
- Emergence of New Unicorns:
- Tines, an Irish company, became a new unicorn, demonstrating ongoing investment interest in innovative technology sectors.
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Conclusion The episode provides a deep dive into the challenges and opportunities within the European VC landscape, particularly in relation to technology, investment strategies, and the role of AI. The discussions call for a more cohesive strategy among European nations to leverage emerging technologies and ensure sustainable growth in the tech sector.
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Key Takeaways
- European VC is underrepresented globally, with opportunities for growth.
- Initiatives like Dragon Guild aim to nurture a new generation of investors in transformative technologies.
- Education on AI usage and critical thinking is vital as technology evolves.
- Economic strategies must align with innovation to drive growth and efficiency in public services.
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Feel free to reach out if you have any questions or need further information!
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Well, this is Upside. it is now uh the week ending that will be the 16th feb we have andrew from 7 we've got lomax from outsides we've got mads and myself from supersede
0:16tear down this wall it's more than just an ally this is a union of values values let's start acting acting acting acting this show is not investment advice and the hosts of this episode may be invested in the funds and companies featured gents what has been happening this week on the work side had a really interesting call with an lp big lp um in asia has 3 000 managers individual managers in that portfolio venture within venture alone and what was shocking to me was he only had three in Europe. Three. And my takeaway from that is, let's just remember, we are part of a massive global ecosystem, right?
1:02And much as we are very European-centric. But secondly, there's a long way to go. Hopefully that three will become 10, will become 20. There's opportunity. Where are the others? Are they global? Are they US-centric? China, India, US, basically. And what was the insight onto the European or lack of European VC? It's just a blind spot for them. It's just like they're based in Southeast Asia. They started in Southeast Asia, then they go to the US. India and China are close, fast growing. There's a lot of capital in those ecosystems, right? There's just a perception that Europe is a little bit behind.
1:40The returns are not as interesting, which we know is not true. You educated him appropriately. Well, I mean, of course. Andrew, what's cooking with you? Well, actually, it's a great point. That's a perfect segue. Thank you, Lomax, because I guess what we're partly talking about is that the majority of money, arguably in Europe over the last sort of 10 years in this growth of venture capital, has gone into companies that only iterate. And they've sort of failed yet to create companies of global change and win markets. So when you look at the dominant tech stack today, most of these U.S. companies, there are some exceptions, Spotify being a fantastic one.
2:28And the epoch-defining technologies of the next 10, 20 years, currently, I would argue, in the lead are U.S. companies. Again, possibly some Chinese. So think about AI, health, robotics, space tech. There are some exceptions. And I think partly the reason is that European investors often lack the courage and ambition to back those genuinely next generation technologies early. And so I, along with actually Lomax on the board as well, but with Arpe, a Finnish entrepreneur, are launching Dragon Guild, which is designed to cultivate individuals to drive transformative change. So our basic goal is to foster the world's best investors who will back the step change technologies and business models To drive that economic growth in UK and Europe.
3:17So sometimes I'm accused of being a grumpy old bugger But this is something I'm probably doing. We're all with you darling. Yes to you to build those that that trillion dollar company be it protecting the environment improving societal health or quality of life protected democracy and and creating outsized returns. So we're raising the angel round at the moment for that new entity. It's separate from Dragon Chasers, but we'll sort of leverage the amazing people within Dragon Chasers. And it's called Dragon Guild. So you'll hear a bit more about that going forward. Mads, what's the latest with you this week?
3:55What's been happening with you? It's been a great week. We've just agreed terms on an investment into a wonderful young company in the insured tech space. Insurance sometimes gets accused of being boring. But yes, this business is very sexiful, using all the good stuff, the sensors, the AI, all the stuff to make lots of cool change into an old industry. Very excited about it. More to be announced shortly, I hope, but for now, just for you to get this one across the line. Cool, cool. This week, I've mostly been bothering BVCA students who are getting into VC. So one of the trainers there asked me to go and do a talk on best practice.
4:39And I said, James, I'm possibly not the best guy to talk about best practice, but I can certainly give some insights into what's been happening and how we grew and how we started and all the good, the bad. And he said, yes, I want that. I want all the kind of the slightly more controversial, contentious stuff. I said, okay, then I'm possibly a man. So that was my week. Well, not my whole week, but that was good fun. so let's cross over the channel over to Paris the France AI Summit now there are loads of ways to to kind of poke this bear but the I think the main vein that I took from from all of the coverage of the summit was JD Vance's speech just to backtrack for a second so the France the AI Summit was all about it was a statement on inclusive and sustainable artificial intelligence for people and planet that was the that was the directive that was the document to sign and there were a hundred countries in attendance at the summit of which 61 signed and the non-signatories quite interestingly were the uk and the us so looking from jd vance's perspective so he he was very much an american first as no great surprises american first if you're not in you're out we're in charge so i guess the broader question for the room is is this important that we didn't sign did we not sign for the right reasons um how did you think about how did you feel about the key aspects kind of covered there's accessibility ethical ai this innovation piece future of work sustainability collaboration it all reads a little bit like a dei contract which i obviously is not what America's all about and possibly not why the UK signed.
6:25And how much teeth does this kind of directive really have? So, Andrew, what else do you know about it? What are your thoughts on the AI summit? First is it's Pope the Rooster, isn't it? French national animal on the bay. I think it was a smart move on the UK government's part. It's easy, diplomatic win with the US. I'm not sure how much this actually means to sign up to it. Things are moving so quickly anyway. Things could be very different within a year. So I don't think it matters either way, and I think we probably made the right decision. So aligning ourselves as independent and more kind of growth-centric, what kind of might take away?
7:12Yeah, I mean, there are so many unanswered questions, and the technology is moving so fast. I mean, I think there was the CEO of a Chinese company, i can't remember the name of it who presented a graph or saying that he expected ai consciousness by 2030 and ai awareness by 2027 i think that's aggressive um many greater experts probably including him than i so who knows maybe he's right but things are going to be so quickly i don't know how much a french directive yeah i mean yeah yeah but like a french directive what's that mean that What matters is delivering the technology, and that's going to outstrip.
7:51That technology is being developed and moving forward far faster than any legislator, I can't say the word, can write stuff into law. Sounds French to me, baby. Lomax, what do you think? I don't know whether we can swear, but I couldn't give two shits about this declaration. As in, first of all, it's not a directive. You used the word directive. It's not like any directive is law. This is just like... It's just a press release, right? It's a piece of paper. You know, I'm sort of envisaging, you know, they get back, you wave around, you know, you land in your home country, you wave it. It means literally nothing and governments will change and then ignore it or get put in a draw.
8:28I think the only significance here is that, you know, UK not signing it and sort of aligning itself more with the US like diplomatically. You know, there's probably tariffs in mind. there's probably you know um just looking looking to create a position that's slightly different from the eu and slightly away from the you know the eu um digital services act so i i think um oh the eu ai act i think i think that is that all directive should i say um i think it's a storm in a teacup really i think it's apart from this little kind of political sideshow on it i don't i don't really care about it i don't think it means a lot people will have we will not be talking about this in a year in months time yeah and also kind of over some of the other news from the eu about this kind of 50 billion euro investment boost so mads where where would you take this conversation yeah i'm even surprised we're talking about this press release now i think it was sort of you know headlined yesterday and forgotten yesterday and i think the bigger news the bigger context here is you know the u.s announced the 500 billion dollars for ai kind of the star Stargate initiative.
9:34And then Macron, he sort of matched it, right? He said, look, we got 109 billion euros in France, precisely matching the US bid on a per capita basis, which I thought is gutsy of him. I kind of like it. He's so far down in the popularity polls. I think he's possibly second or third off the bottom with an approval rating. So maybe he's trying to win some votes. I don't care. I don't care how popular he is. I want to see action from our leaders. Give him the money. Focus on priorities that matter. Listen, UK GDP growth was 0.1 % last quarter. Okay, I couldn't give a toss about a press release about some nice vague words.
10:15I want to see action about things that can actually make a difference to the economy. And with AI, we have the biggest opportunity in our generation, right? Let's focus on that. Not kind of all the softy-softy side of it, But how is it actually going to make meaningful difference to our economies in terms of growth, in terms of efficiency and productivity? I think that's what really matters. I thought it was really interesting to see the commission come out with a 50 billion euro kind of investment announcement, which goes beyond what the U.S. federal government has done. So more direct dollars, less deal making, perhaps with corporates, which is what you could miss a bit there.
10:51So in that sense, it's more Bidenomics maybe than Trumponomics. And the question is whether it will work, because we know that nothing happens without entrepreneurs and private capital. You can wave all the checkbooks around you want, but if there are no kind of privately driven projects, it's just all going to become white elephants. So the question here is, can the European Union, can Europe really convince founders and investors to go deep in terms of investment here? I think it was interesting to see France and see them leading the way. Now, in my book, the ideal approach would be something that combines the UK's very detailed plan for AI.
11:28Lomax, you often ask for the plan. I actually thought the UK did some great work developing a detailed plan. But what we then need is we need money and action and targets and goals. And I think the EU's fiscal injection of capital to prime the pump is great. And then I think the U.S. approach to deal-making and really strike deals with private business to help attract the private capital and get the entrepreneurs going is essential. So something that combines those three approaches in my book would be the ideal. And I'm sort of waiting for somebody to come with that. But can it come from Europe?
12:02That would be great. And maybe France can lead the way here. Well, let's stay in France. Let's go Le Chat from Mistral. I'm sure I've said that wrong. Très bon. Can't use the wrong tense. So Mads, this doesn't look like a massive game-changing device. The kind of the... What I've taken away is this is based on the fact that it's a faster way of getting results from an LM. Is it a bit too late? They've based a lot of their content from the Jurno AFP, so the partnership they have with the AFP. It's GDPR limited, perhaps, because it's in the EU. It lacks that brand value and reach. And many of the users are complaining that it's quite boring to use as an LLM.
12:52So, Mads, maybe you can kick off with how you see Le Chat as this new product from Miss Joanne in France? Dan's just alienated all our French users. I know. Let me just upset everyone. It was with love and relish, I know. So look, the truth is there were some recriminations after the DeepSea launch. I think many people asked, sort of said, look, we've been looking at the U.S. for, kind of with Ennui for years, saying they have all this money, all this capex, they have all these chips, they can build all these amazing models. No chance we can catch up. We are, we're doomed. And then lo and behold, the Chinese with cut down chips that are, you know, handicapped due to export controls, et cetera, et cetera.
13:35They're a pretty darn good model. and we're all looking at our friends at Mistral and saying, well, why not you? Why could you not have done that? So now it's the French AI week and Mistral is back with a vengeance. They had this huge announcement of Le Chat and I thought the marketing was beautiful and it was all done very well. And kind of the headline piece is this super cool demo where they say, look, our model is efficient and you can ask the model to write the snake game in Python and it will do it much faster than the Claude from Anthropik or the GPT model from OpenAI. And I must say, I thought the demo was beautiful.
14:17I did my own personal test and I was unable to reproduce that performance. So whether some of it was sort of made specifically for the demo, I don't know. I love to see that there is still some ambition in Europe to play in the Super League. I think our big chance here is an open source. I think the DeepSeek team really showed the way on open source and showed that there is still a way to create incredible performance with open source models. We have superb academic talent in Europe. In France, you've got incredible mathematicians in the UK, in Cambridge, in Oxford, Imperial. There's amazing talent.
14:58And the fact that we now have more focus on open source means more sharing of knowledge, means it's easier to develop models outside of the hyperscalers. And so I think to some extent, DeepSeek might be a bigger catalyst for European AI than Mistral. I think Mistral is still important. It's important because European founders need to know that there is a way to start, build and raise and scale here. And so if there's any takeaway, I'd say I'd love that they're in the game. I love that they're giving a good kick and hopefully they can make some hair here while the sun shines. The open source angle, the whole deep seek push into open source, I think Mads, as you were saying, made it feel to me like this has put Europe back in the game.
15:42But Andrew, does this matter? Should we be focusing on foundationals in Europe? What's your take? I asked ChatGPT what it thought of Le Chat, and it thought it was a French cartoon. So then I educated it what it was. And then it came back and said, well, speed isn't everything. And it said, if you need nuanced explanations and research or complex problem solving, that I should speak to it. So that's the American perspective. As in, you should speak to ChatGPT, not Le Chat. Is that what it was saying? Yeah, it didn't really care for it. very much. It's all a bit iterative, isn't it? It sort of reminds me of the...
16:26It reminds me of that Internet Explorer meme. Do you remember the browser lineup? And then you had, it was all, we're Internet Explorers. And then, sorry, we're search engines. And then Internet Explorer, I'm a search engine. It reminds me of that meme that kind of the European is the one on the far right. And who knows where I live. Mr. R's got, I don't know what they're doing in their r &d lab who knows um so i'm speaking from a position of ignorance but i do think that if you're going to announce something you know make sure it's impressive and not interesting i you know again like my point i suppose my point is none of this is bad this is all good stuff you know it's just like i wish you know just it would be nice just having thought about it it's like it would be nice if we had more going on here you know like more money more projects more people working on it i'm sure this is this is good i mean two weeks ago we thought mistrial was a failed project and was was going to be sold for you know for parts so this is great mads i wanted to imagine i have designed and created this beautiful sting intro to ai corner and i would love for you because we talk about ai a lot so i think we should do a segment of the kind of the broader AI stuff that's cooking in the world.
17:42And I know you think about this a lot. So what is, what's some of the broader picture? What's some of the other aspects that are going on in AI right now? Yeah, just a bit of news from the other side of the Atlantic, some of the frontier labs. You know, whether we think they are, they're important or not, I certainly think they are, and I follow it quite closely. And Sam Altman has been out this week saying that there's news around GPT 4.5. It's on the way, and we're expecting it within the next weeks to months, so kind of call it four to eight weeks. He's saying it's going to be the last non-chain-of-thought model, and everything will be reasoning, which is interesting.
18:19So huge paradigm shift coming at GPT-5, which will be the model after that, which he expects to be a true omni-model that can do it all. And I'm not surprised, because if anybody is using JantGPT recently, you'll know that there is this delightful model picker today, which allows you to pick 4.0, 0.1, 0.3 mini, 0.3 mini high, the pro version, the older versions. With tasks, with reasoning. I don't know what's working. Whoever came up with that product conventioning is, I think, just needs some basic brand architecture training because it's absolutely confusing. And so he's saying they're going to try and put a stop to all of that.
18:59They want a true Omni model that can do it all. In parallel, Elon Musk has been out disclosing that they are very close to releasing Grok 3. And now people will remember the XAI Colossus Data Center, kind of this 100 ,000 GPU cluster that was built at record time last year. And since then, the XAI team has been busy developing Grok 3. And it promises to be a really exceptional model. And I'd say personally, I can't wait to get my hands on it and test it out when it's released here in a few weeks' time. Now, in the context of DeepSeek, I'd say next level reasoning is more important than ever, because this was one of the areas where DeepSeek made some meaningful enhancements.
19:43And this means a lot more inference. And when there's more inference, there's more need for processing and far, far more capability. So, you know, from my perspective, look, we're only a month and a bit into 2025, but it sure promises to be a great year for innovation. I'm actually really, really excited by some of the things we're seeing. I want to very quickly discuss the very small 25 bps rate cut that the Bank of England did this week with a view to asking you lovely people the question, is there going to be any effect on investing, any effect on startups or any slightly, I guess, medium or longer term impact this rate cut?
20:27Now, from what I've read, we're hopefully expecting another couple of rate cuts, but we have this stagflation potential challenge. Unemployment looks like it's possibly going to go up. Inflation is going up. Growth predicted in the UK this year has been halved to 0.75%. Fixed rate mortgage holders are paying more, even though the base rate has been dropped. So there are definitely aspects here that I think are going to affect the startup and investment community. Mads, where would you take this one? I would say that the announcement that the UK economy grew by 0.1 % in Q4 tells us everything we need to know when we know that that's celebrated as a good achievement.
21:21It wasn't a recession, baby. It wasn't backwards. Right. We've got four entwined challenges. We've got inflation that's sticky. We've got a fiscal deficit that means no room to maneuver for the government. We've got low growth and we've got creaking public services. And it's quite dire when you think about that. You sort of talk about stagflation, which is not something anybody wants to return to. But so I'd say on the flip side of that, the question is, is there a way to address all of these things with one unified strategy? And I think that the starting point of that is the UK's new AI strategy, because with AI, we have the most powerful tool for automation and creating efficiency we have had in our lifetime.
22:03And it's right there in our fingertips, at our feet, ready to use. And the thing we've seen is the government now be ready to, I think Andrew made the point earlier, not just talk about and look at AI as something to give grants to, but actually look at the government as an early customer of these technologies, having a clear program to adopt them, to use them, to scale them. I think big credit to Matt Clifford for developing that as part of the AI strategy. The UK government is now focused on doing that. The thing I'm still missing is some real numbers around the strategy. So if we talk about using AI to create better public services and more efficiency, what do the numbers look like?
22:46Where are the efficiency gains going to come? Where are we going to save money? How is, we saw this week, earlier this week, Bloomberg reporting that the NHS, the productivity of the NHS has declined from 2019, has declined 20%. Okay, so on one hand, we have this incredibly powerful technology available. And at the same time, productivity is not only stagnating, it's going backwards. And it's bonkers. And it means we have these public services that clearly are creaking. We have, as we know, people working there that are busting their guts to try and deliver. But because we have allowed things to atrophy with inefficient technologies and inefficient processes and systems, we are just not delivering the type of support and service we need.
23:34So I think there is a unique opportunity here to implement next-gen technologies, to use AI, to drive efficiency. And what I would love the government to do is to put real numbers of that. Where are the efficiencies going to be? How are we going to save money and where and over what period of time? And then use that to do a number of things. First of all, to improve the level of service because we need that, but also to create fiscal room for tax cuts. We talked about the tax burden we have. It's too high. Things I'd advocate right away to reverse the national insurance for employers increase that we know is impacting jobs and to reduce VAT because that could help address inflation.
24:17Those two initiatives would cost money, but I think we can more than make up for that through investment in efficiency in public services. So that would be my plea to the powers that be, is to take this very seriously and not just look at it as some things we're going to experiment with, but actually put real numbers and real targets around it. Well, Rachel listens, so we can speak directly to Mrs. Reeves. So get a handle on cost savings, cut taxes, invest and grow. I fear for the time and the inertia baked in there. But Lomax, where would you take this? well no i i think you know we just just to say you know we talked about 0.1 percent um gdp growth in the uk and q4 but also interesting below that level right is is the drip down to gdp per capita right in the individual level that is actually going backwards it's gone backwards now two quarters in a row so you can talk about the gdp and the macro at the high level but if you talk about per capita basis it's actually going backwards right so it makes it even more incumbent on on on the things that mads was outlining we've talked about before for these initiatives to take hold and for people to start feeling this you know change at the individual level this is also i think why you know you talk to a little there's a general moroseness about people when you chat to them about the uk at the individual level because literally we are going backwards the data now shows that the rate cuts it did you know i mean you know we've now gone like three you know quarter um not point you know two five percent cuts or 25 basis point cuts um i think that's great what does that mean for us in tech i mean i think the trickle through takes takes time right you know um the the less the less money you earn from interest the more this triggers a kind of slow rotation potentially into equity into the equities rather than debt which um you know would include private markets which would include us but that that takes a long times trickle through so there's no real immediate trickle through on the kind of investment in investment lens um one thing i i totally agree with mads i think mads is being a bit optimistic on the impact of ai on on government and and the total government spend you know i you know you look at a lot of that government budget and you know maybe this is something we could talk about all the time it's like a lot of that you know i don't know 200 million 200 billion sorry is going on pensions and benefits and things like that right the government's spending over just over a billion a year like that it's like that's a policy decision that's not sorry mads a trillion what's a trillion sorry you know yeah government spend just over a trillion a year but they're spending a quarter of that on on benefits and pensions right so it's like we're not we're not we're not automate those payments you know we can maybe automate the way you deliver those payments but that's just it's gonna you know there's a there's some absolute things in in the budget that you can't just automate, you know?
27:11So I feel like Mads is right. This is great. You know, my question is the government, is it, you know, the civil servant, is it a great adopter of, you know, AI? Well, that would take time. And B is the impact might actually, sadly, be smaller than you would hope. One other point that I've just been reflecting on, and this is maybe me getting out of my wheelhouse, but is such in the context of inflationary, it's like the government has announced a lot of infrastructure spending and if you go through all of the infrastructure the government want to build you know the new houses the reservoirs the runways the data centers etc i was doing some math and i was getting chat gpt to help me out this is like 500 billion of spending i mean not now but like in the next few years right if all these projects want to like and actually that could be hugely inflationary in itself right if there's not enough slack in the economy that's a very interesting kind of thing to think about which is like actually i mean there's all it's all very great investing but we need to worry about the sort of second order consequences of that and get a handle on on on that maybe that's me jumping at shadows and and you know we should just crack all this infrastructure investment but um yeah you don't want to see inflation going up and then rates going up again to counter that's where we need to create efficiency to free up resources well there you go there you go back circular baby circular yeah get the robot you know get the robot we need to get the robots out you know for those projects i mean they're not going to be built with software call elon he's on it although i saw that i saw yesterday that apple are looking at building humanoid robots did you see that and you love it it's the biggest i listen i i i am a massive apple fan where's the waiting list yeah but i think as soon as you put an accountant in charge i knew this as soon as tim cook take us oh no we need somebody who's just got that kind of inspiration design thinking slightly more maverick taste rather than the accountant running the ship but i think they i think maybe that that is now on the turn because they realize uh that things need to change and they need to you know at least be looking like they're innovating but that's what you have with the government isn't it the chancellor really runs the ship and because if you don't have the money you can't spend it and she sets policies which encourage growth or discourage growth.
29:33And when we talk about interest rates going up and down, you can get really down on the wheat on this, and there are plenty of economists who get paid lots of money to spout very eloquently, far more than I can, on the topic. But ultimately, sentiment drives the market overall. The economy is so interwoven and complex. obviously the relieves that we can pull of automation but if there is poor sentiment and there is lack of confidence in a nation then the nation will be charged more for its debt people won't invest they won't risk their money they'll save their money it won't spend their money companies won't choose to base themselves in that country and that's exactly what you see currently in the UK and many European countries and conversely you see the opposite despite all the arguments that there are fundamental issues with the American economy of enormous unprecedented debt.
30:31But there is optimism and there is confidence and there is hope. And unfortunately, the UK government and many of the European governments don't understand how important sentiment and the psychology of that is. And so when you keep, you can say growth, growth, growth as many times as you want. But then if your policies don't match your rhetoric and actually worse, they contradict, nobody believes you. And that's why I think you're seeing interest rates going up. That's why you're seeing the cost of borrowing going up. That's why you're seeing companies not invest. It's actually a very simple thing to change.
31:10And that is exactly right. And that's why I think it's so important and would be so powerful to say, let's set some real objectives around efficiency. Lomax, to your point, we've had the NHS go backwards. Over six years, productivity has declined 20%. It's not beyond the weight of man that you could imagine using tech to get productivity just back to where it was five, six years ago. And literally, with that alone, you would free up tens of billions of pounds that either could be reinvested elsewhere or freed up for the kind of tax cuts we need. If you came out with a bold and ambitious budget to say, look, efficiency here, free up resource, use that to invest in some tax cuts over there.
31:53I think you could use that to trigger exactly the animal spirits, Andrew, you were talking about to get the economy back and going. And it's not, you've got a majority of 170, 80 people. I mean, what are they for if not to be bold and do some ambitious things? So I just, I'd love to see that. Now is the time to be bold, but again, call me a pessimist, but I don't think you're going find more than 10 billion of savings from this ai driving government more than 10 billion 10 billion what the hell is that is that your pledge on the table 10 billion but again we could argue that why are we looking at ai to save make the savings in government actually shouldn't we look at the fundamental cost base of government the number of people employed yeah what the way she's doing spending that's lower hanging i mean i have a lot that's why i have a lot of sympathy for the whole department of government efficiency you know elon's wheel and the axe i mean he it's a messy process for sure and he's making it he's making it far messier than possibly needs to be but the the goal and the outcome he's trying to achieve is the right one because ai and those sort of things should be deployed not to let's save 10 million in government expenditure it should be actually how can we accelerate the economy how can we do things better not just the the scarcity mindset of like oh we can only use this to save money now i think i i fundamentally disagree with you why can't it be both why i think i think it can be both but i just of course i don't think i don't think ai you can't ai on its own without changes in how the civil service operate it to lomax's point is not going to move the needle of course not because people can't do any jobs like look you're reducing the expenditure on the department or you're not because you're using AI.
33:33So what you're really saying is reduce headcount. And that's not what I'm hearing. I'm hearing, let's use AI to make things more efficient. But you're not actually talking about fundamentally cutting the budget. No, no, you're applying selective hearing, because that is exactly what I'm saying. I'm saying, let's get a proper budget. Not you, the government. Yeah. And that's what I'm saying. That's the one thing we're missing from all the plans, because I think they've talked a lot about the right things. But the one thing they haven't talked about is where is that efficiency going to materialize in real numbers, in real pounds saved?
34:07Because without that, it's all a bit meaningless. I want to talk about something very non-topical, but I thought it was quite interesting. So a report came out this week from Microsoft and Carnegie Mellon, which was called The Impact of Gen AI on Critical Thinking. And it really caught my eye. And I thought it was a really interesting research report. Now, what they've done is they've spoken to 319 knowledge workers, over 936 different tasks that they were doing within their businesses or whatever they were doing in their knowledge work using AI. And the inference was that we're losing critical thinking skills.
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34:46AI is going to make us dumber. So I wanted to ask the room, A, do you believe this? Is this something that we should be mindful of, investing primarily in AI technologies? Is it something that you will take into account in any way? And Mads, do you want to kick this one off? Answering your question, should we think about it? Yes, we should. I think there is a real risk. There are a couple of paradoxes that came out of the study. One was this confidence paradox, which paradoxically says that the higher confidence you have in the AI, the less critical thinking you apply to the answers, the worse you're going to do.
35:30Whereas if you have higher self-confidence, you're going to challenge the AI more, you're going to be more critical, and you're going to get much more out of using the AI. So it sort of flips a little bit the assumption about who relies on AI and who's a good user of AI. And what that leads to is an immediate insight that it actually takes some training to use these models well. And this is back to a conversation we had a year ago, sort of saying, you know, why is this not already mandated in schools? Because we know all the kids are using these models, but are they all getting the requisite training in using them critically?
36:03Critical thinking has become more important than ever. And this is not just about social media and sort of fake news. No, it's about the AIs we're using every day for our work. They have a propensity to lie to us or at least make stuff up. And we need to be really critical when we use them. So incredibly powerful. You know, think about it as the most brilliant assistant you've ever had who just, you know, throws a fib every 10 times. You ask them to throw a little lie and then you've got to figure out what it is. So you have to sort of watch out. Do you think that's how they should build future models?
36:33Do they think they should intentionally build in life? Just seeing if you're listening, just throw that one in. Well, so that's a really good point. And this is something you can track is how much do they hallucinate? How much do they make stuff up? And that proportion is coming down. And there is a risk in that in and of itself because we've not found a way to eliminate it. We've just made it smaller. And, of course, it's a little bit like most things. As they get safer and safer, we get laxer and laxer. And there can be accidents in that because our critical thinking atrophies. So I think it's a super interesting area.
37:07I think it puts a lot of onus on all of us to think really intentionally about how we use the tools. It doesn't make them less valuable because they are so valuable. It's a risk, but it's just something to be aware of, I think, in the mix. I quite like the fact that critical thinking is becoming much more talked about, much more prevalent because of social media and now because of AI and LLMs. It feels like that's quite an aligned, you know, the parents are going to be talking about this at parent-teacher evenings and workers and bosses are going to be talking about this in work settings. So I feel like that alignment, I think, is quite a timely, powerful thing.
37:48Andrew, what are your thoughts on this? I think every couple of generations, certainly in modern times, technologies come along, which is rightly or wrongly stimulated fears of the demise of human thought. Rock and roll, the Internet, television. I'm sure there's. Yeah, exactly. And it happened with TV, you know, when it came out. Going to destroy the fabric of society. Which I'm sure has an impact on how we think and how we behave. and for sure culturally. I'm not sure that LLMs in themselves are going to make us more stupid. I'm actually far more worried about how modern society is impacted by what we eat and how we live rather than what we do from a digital consumption point of view.
38:42There are definitely challenges with social media, especially with kids. There's no question. Last but not least, I want to very quickly scooch to this and Lomax, I'm going to lean on you for this one. So AstraZeneca has pulled their vaccine plant. This was, from what I can tell, it was a state aid issue. So government pulled the funding, then put some funding back and then kind of met them halfway, by which point AstraZeneca lost the will to live. Is that a fair appraisal? Yeah, actually like head in hands, like this feels like snatching defeat in the jaws of victory. you know it's like i don't want to i don't want to have another like depressing kind of like chat about the uk government we're gonna i can feel one coming i can feel one coming i'll keep it short and punchy so astrazeneca is a british swedish pharma company 500 company 54 billion revenue 200 billion market cap one of the biggest pharma companies in the world famous for you know some big cancer drugs to griso big lung cancer drug five billion a year in revenue like really impressive famous for the oxford the oxford cancer of australia oxford acts astrojanica cancer vaccine is the biggest pharma company in the uk five manufacturing sites here was on the cusp of and if you google it a year ago a new 450 million pound new next generation vaccine plant was going to be built in liverpool it was all agreed it was all announced jeremy hunt who was the former chancellor of the exchequer under the tory conservative government had announced this, there was going to be 90 million of subsidies that was going to be given by the government.
40:18Of course, as you know, both within the US state to state and Europe, almost country to country, big projects like this, CEOs and boards, shot them around trying to get grants, etc. They ended up in Singapore, right? This ended up in Singapore, I think. This, I think, ended up in Singapore. In fact, I'm so depressed by it, I've actually forgotten. I'm not even focused on where it's gone. this is this happened four years ago with another plant that ended up going to ireland but this plant let me just just just like this this is nickel and diming right the 90 million was promised by the conservative government then we had the labor government come in in july and they cut that rachel we've cut that down to 40 million so it's a 50 million cut which is nothing in the grand scheme of the government budget and so astrazeneca um decided well you know we're going to pull we're going to pull the plug you basically cut the state the state funding or the help but they made nearly nine billion in profit last year i don't but the trouble is vaccines just aren't important for astrazeneca right it's a tiny part of what they do i think you mentioned cancer drugs okay this is 40 40 percent of their their profit comes from the cancer drugs and nobody makes money from vaccines comparatively right no fair enough but that's again that's not the point here the point is is like the government fumbled here you know that the AstraZeneca team have pointed out that it was like a nightmare dealing with the people.
41:39Incredibly slow death by a thousand counts. The number got cut in half. We know that companies shop around the world trying to get the best deal. That's what they do, even if they are making nine billion of profits. It's like, you know, if you're an investor in AstraZeneca, you'd be happy about this, right? Actually, Pastel Soriat, the CEO of AstraZeneca, has a knighthood from the British government. So actually, he should be - And that didn't work. Well, not even though it didn't work, but my point is, okay, we've talked about this in the past. we talked about Rachel Reeve announcing a bunch of growth initiatives all in the South.
42:08And Dan, he always worried about everything going to the South, right? This is an example of something that was happening in Liverpool in the North, right? It got nickel and dimed away by 50 million. And, you know, AstraZeneca have gone elsewhere. And so I just think it's just a stupid, you know, we talk and we talked about sentiment. Sentiment is great. Absolute numbers are also important. And this would have trickled through to jobs and growth in the Northwest. So I think it's just a lose. and you know i don't want to end the pod on a lose but it's a lose we are not going to end the pod on the lose thank you but it does remind me just to clarify though the plant in singapore it was is not going to do the same thing as the plant in the uk was going to do right it doesn't matter i'm not focused on that i'm just focused on the fact that the government fumbles we want to keep the misery here because keep the misery they're far more they're far more interested in flogging fat you know anti-fat drugs right because that's what the money and i think and also and let's not forget this is the same government because i was just you know just googling this and spending time reminding myself like in the budget that she last announced they pulled this this um 800 it was a bigger investment this is not a 50 million pound you know state subsidy a much bigger investment in a supercomputer they were going to build in edinburgh right that was pulled from the budget that was one of the things that was pulled right and so i feel like you know they didn't even have like the foresight six months ago to think about where the investment needs to come and they're cutting these kind of things i just i just um anyway it makes me a bit sad but you know i now mads is very impressed by the matt clifford initiatives of the um keir starman has adopted and you know are you flipping to positivity is that what you're doing here i'm loving your work you know maybe finally finally they they've caught on to it yeah i was listening i was listening to reeves on the on the party political podcast um and and i was quite i was quite impressed with her She is, obviously, I've only listened to her in a non-party political broadcast scenario, possibly just this once.
44:04But she's very aware of how she's perceived. She's very aware of the shortcomings of the last budget. She's very aware of... That makes it even worse. That makes it even worse than if she wasn't bloody aware. What she's really saying is that you're damn right. I don't care that I know these policies are stupid. and doing it because it's ideologically appropriate. No, I think she's trying to find a line. And my sense of what she was saying is that sometimes she needs to do more. And I would like to think that she thinks it's coming. Mads, I'm going to look to you for some optimistic positivity to close us off.
44:46Can I rely on you, my good man, for some fruity words? It's tomorrow. We are on the 14th of February. That means we're halfway through the month. That means we're halfway through Q1. That means that spring is ahead of us. I think there has never been more opportunity to do the right thing. I think we have some good ideas of what can be done. I think it's interesting and exciting to talk about that. And I think we've tried to give a little bit of prescription and some ideas about what could be done on the show today. So I hope that folks will listen and take notes and maybe implement one or two of those.
45:28What I think is genuinely exciting is although the problems are big, it's not like we're in the 70s where oil was the only recipe for growth and we knew neither back nor forth. As we've got AI, we've got technology, we've got all the instruments here. We've got incredible talent coming out of our universities. we have a growing venture sector that can back these firms we know what needs to happen i i feel all the ingredients are there so i'm sort of like i i i'm not gonna wave the white flag there was if we can get this done we can create i knew i could rely on you i knew i knew you'd raise the bar gentlemen always a pleasure and a gift and i'll catch you next week well hang on sorry what about deal of the week we need optimism we need to end with optimism man time do it go go so i think and we have a newly minted unicorn in Europe, Tines out of Ireland.
46:18It's a lovely gig. We've actually seen a number of mega rounds this year. And so 11 Labs and Neco Health. Here's another one. Here's a new unicorn. And this is great to see. So this is 125 mil Series C, Tines, Irish Boston, Irish New York. Irish Boston or very like Irish Heritage Company. I think they've now raised 285 million, which per what Mads and I often say, it takes about 300 million. so they're pretty much you know they're pretty much on the money there again we like to talk about micro you know participants so then blossom blossom capital led the series a so massive hats off to them you know we need another one of those funds that's kind of coming through coming through the gears so uh this is great to see and then the other deal that caught my eye was a deal that actually we've known for a long time that only just came out of stealth making labs another talking about mafias before that is a you know former scientist out of out of deep mind is working in tech bio ai for discovery um and has just raised 50 million series a um from some good friends of good friends of ours you know kindred pillar etc so um loving their work this is great you know that's two positive optimistic stories that we ended on boom do you want two more go go go yes so i talked to you about fusion company a few weeks back well that fusion company that i still can't talk about has raised and raised very healthy valuation which which is fantastic.
47:44My portfolio is very exciting. But there is a fusion company that I can talk about, which is not ours. Another fusion company, that's two fusion companies this month, have raised, which is Astral Systems, a competing fusion company, and they've raised just sort of€5 million, I think, from UK and European investors. So great to see that deep tech being backed early. Let's hope they continue to be backed. Let's get some more energy startups in the pot as well. Lovely, lovely, lovely. I'll catch you next week, gentlemen. Love you guys. Bye.
48:21This is a union of values. Let's start acting.




